Projected Wild Card Game Roster

One of the quirks of the Wild Card Game is a team is able to create a standalone 25 man roster just for that game.  After the completion of the Wild Card Game, the winning team is able to reset its roster for the Division Series.  With that in mind, when the Mets construct their roster, they really have no need to carry extra starting pitchers.  Instead, they can carry an extra reliever or two, and they can add a couple of bats on the bench for pinch hitting and running opportunities.  With that in mind, here is how I would construct the roster.

Catchers (2)Travis d’Arnaud and Rene Rivera

With the Wild Card Game starting pitcher likely to be either Syndergaard or Lugo, it seems that Rivera will be Terry Collins choice as the starting catcher.  If the Mets fall behind early, he may very well go to d’Arnaud for offense.  However, for now, Rivera seems the likely starter.

First Base (2) – Lucas Duda and James Loney

The only variable we don’t know right now is whether Duda can play everyday during a postseason run.  However, we have seen him play effectively here and there as he gets more playing time.  If Duda is ready to go, he has to start.  If not, Loney can start with Duda being the power bat off the bench.  If Duda does start, Loney is there for insurance for Duda’s back, and he can hit right-handed pitching reaosnably well in the event the Mets need an extra pinch hitter.

Second Base (2) – Kelly Johnson and T.J. Rivera

If the Mets face the Giants and Madison Bumgarner, it is likely Rivera gets the start.  If the Mets face the Cardinals and Carlos Martinez, it is likely Johnson gets the start.  No matter which one gets the start, we know that the other one will be the best pinch hitting option when the Mets need a bit hit.

Third Base (1)Jose Reyes

At this point, barring something unusual happening, Reyes is the team’s everyday third baseman and leadoff hitter.  He also serves as a backup shortstop in the event something happens to Cabrera

Shortstop (1) – Asdrubal Cabrera

Cabrera is the best hitter in the major leagues during the month of September, and while he has two injured knees, he is able to effectively handle all the balls that come within the vicinity of shortstop.

Outfield – (5) Jay Bruce, Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, Alejandro De Aza, Curtis Granderson

Given how Bruce’s bat has come alive the past few games and with the way Conforto has been adapting to being a pinch hitter, both players should find themselves on the Wild Card Game roster.  What will be curious is whether it is Bruce or De Aza that finds themselves in the outfield with Cespedes and Granderson.  In a winner-take-all situation, Collins just might be inclined to go with the defense over the bat.

Starting Pitchers (3) – Bartolo Colon, Seth Lugo, and Noah Syndergaard

Whether or not Syndergaard pitches on Sunday, he has to be on the roster.  You cannot go down without the ability to throw your best pitcher, even if it is for one inning.  Same goes for your second best pitcher, which is why Colon should be on the roster.  As for Lugo, he should make the roster because: 1) he has experience as a short reliever; and 2) it is his turn in the rotation, so he can give you as many innings as you need.

Bullpen (5) – Jerry Blevins, Jeurys Familia, Addison Reed, Hansel Robles, Fernando Salas and Josh Smoker

If things go to plan, it is likely the Mets are not going to need more than Reed and Familia.  If the starter is able to go six, Reed can pitch the seventh and Familia can get the final two innings like he did in the NLDS clincher last year.  In the event things don’t go as smoothly, this bullpen can effectively mix and match.  Smoker seems like a given to make the roster because it gives the Mets an extra lefty in the pen, one with reverse splits, that can get a big strikeout when the Mets are in a jam.

Bubble –

If the Mets were to go with this group of players, and it seems likely they would that leaves the team with 22 players on the roster with decisions to make for the final four spots.  Here is a case for each of the potential bubble players:

Position Players

UT Eric Campbell  – As we saw when the Mets faced Adam Conley and the Marlins, Collins has fallen back in the habit of using Campbell as his right-handed first baseman.  In the event the Mets face the Giants, Campbell may well find himself getting a postseason start.  If not, he has shown the ability to be a very effective pinch hitter in tight games.

UT Ty KellyCollins has liked using as a pinch runner towards the back-end of the season.  Even though he is much better hitting right-handed in his short major league career, Kelly’s switch hitting ability does have some usefulness in neutralizing an opposing manager’s ability to go to a lefty/righty in a big spot for multiple outs.

CF Juan LagaresLagares just started to swing the bat, but we still don’t know if he can do it multiple times in a game if necessary.  However, with the Mets not needing to carry as many pitchers, Lagares could be kept on the roster to bunt, pinch run, and play defense in the late innings.

C Kevin Plawecki – Plawecki has not done much of anything offensively this season.  However, he remains a good defensive catcher, and his presence on the team would permit Collins to be aggressive in bringing in d’Arnaud for offense with full knowledge that the Mets have other catcher on the bench.

SS Matt ReynoldsEspecially given Cabrera’s injuries further limiting his range, Reynolds could very well be the Mets best defensive shortstop.  Should Cabrera have to leave the game with an injury, Reynolds could step right in defensively.  Additionally, in the event Collins needs to start double switching people in and out of the game to keep a pitcher in longer, Reynolds’ ability to competently play second, third, short, and left make him a versatile and valuable bench piece.

Bullpen

LHP Josh Edgin – His chances of making the roster increase if the Mets play the Giants given the presence of Denard Span and Brandon Belt.  In that event, the Mets may want that one extra lefty to have multiple matchup opportunities.  Against the Cardinals, the need for the extra left-hander won’t be as great.

RHP Erik GoeddelEven if it has been mostly in mop-up duty, Goeddel has pitched much better in September than he has all season.  Unlike Edgin or Henderson (below), Goedell has also shown the ability to go multiple innings lately thereby increasing his usefulness out of the pen.

RHP Robert Gsellman – Gsellman could make the team as a long reliever with Collins then using Lugo as a one inning reliever who can let it fly for one or two innings.  Additionally, with Gsellman’s sinker, Collins could elect to go with him in a situation in which the Mets need to get a double play.

RHP Jim HendersonHenderson hasn’t been the same since coming back from the disabled list.  With that said, he’s still striking out 10.6 per nine, and so far this month, he has seven scoreless appearances.  More than any of the above, he has the biggest upside.  However, when he loses with 95+ MPH fastball, and it happens without a moment’s notice, he’s going to get hit around.

Prediction

Who the Mets carry for the final three spots will be largely based upon the opponent.  In the event that the Mets face the Giants, the odds of Campbell and Edgin making the roster go up significantly.  If the Mets face the Cardinals, who have multiple effective lefties out of the pen, someone like Kelly with his switch hitting ability could see his chances of making the roster increase.

Overall, considering how the Mets have handled the catching situation late in the season, the Mets should probably carry Plawecki as a third catcher.  Doing so will permit Collins to switch out Rivera for d’Arnaud if the Mets fall behind early or if the Mets need a right-handed pinch hitter.

If the Mets face the Giants, it is likely that Campbell will make the roster as the starting first baseman.  If the Mets face the Cardinals, the Mets will then likely carry Kelly as a pinch runner/pinch hitter or Reynolds.  Given how the concerns over Cabrera’s knees, and the need to double switch late in games, and because Reynolds has some extra pop in his bat than Kelly, Reynolds should be the choice.

The last spot becomes dicey.  As the Mets bullpen is constituted, the team has multiple pitchers who can go multiple innings thereby negating the need to carry an eighth reliever.  This choice here will likely be and should be opponent driven.  If the Mets face the Giants, Edgin should be the choice so the Mets can get multiple lefty/lefty matchups late in games.  If the Mets face the Cardinals, the team should probably carry both Reynolds and Kelly.  This would help the Mets neutralize the Cardinals unleashing their left-handed relievers against the Mets late in the game.

Of course, if Lagares is truly healthy enough to swing the bat, as he has done the past few games, he definitely needs to be on the roster.  He had a good postseason last year, and he’s the team’s best defensive outfielder.

There are a number of interesting decisions ahead, and ultimately it will depend on the opponent and whether the Cardinals keep enough heat on the Giants so Bumgarner had to pitch on Sunday.

Editor’s Note: this was also published on Mets Merized Online

Terry Collins Is a Leader of Men

During this three game series with the Miami Marlins, Terry Collins yet again showed everyone why he is a good human being and a leader of men.  The Mets were in a terrible spot after the Jose Fernandez death.  The team had to get up for the three game set while also showing proper reverence to a team that lost a teammate and a friend.  The task was more complicated by the fact that players like Yoenis Cespedes were personally affected by the death.  Travis d’Arnaud admitted to crying on the field.  As Bob Klapisch would report, one Mets official said, “We felt sorry for them. We felt guilty trying to beat them.”

With that backdrop, Collins struck the proper tone with his team helping guide them to a series victory over the Marlins while reducing the Mets magic number to clinch one of the Wild Card spots to two.  Collins and the Mets did more than that.

Before the first game of the series, the Mets players went out and embraced the devastated Marlins players.  They shared in the pain and comforted the opposition to let them know the loss of a life was bigger than this rivalry.  As Dee Gordon would say after the game, “I want to say ‘thank you’ to the Mets – they are first class.  Coming in and showing their gratitude to us, being there for us in a time of need. That was just amazing.”  (USA Today).

It didn’t stop there.  Several of the Mets players made sure they attended Fernandez’s funeral before Wednesday’s game.  When asked about the Mets attendance at the game, Collins would say, “I thought it was important to be there to honor Jose.  I think it was important to have our people out there, we had several guys out there today. You know this is a very large fraternity. It’s an exclusive fraternity, it’s hard to get in, when you lose somebody I just think you need the representation of everybody else. We were represented very well today. I was very proud.”  (NY Daily News).

The Mets should feel well with how they comported themselves in the wake of Fernandez’s death.  There was there consoling the Marlins players.  They all signed the Fernandez Mets jersey they had and gave it as a gift to the Marlins players and organization.  In an important three game set, they did nothing to show up an emotionally battered and already defeated opponent.  Finally, after the series was over, the Mets team, lead by Collins, made sure to embrace the Marlins one last time.

We all, myself especially, get on Collins for his deficiencies as a manager.  He probably costs his team more games than not with the decisions he makes.  However, that is just part of who a manager is.  A manager is someone who has to deal with 25 (now 39) guys in a clubhouse.  He has to keep them on an even keel during the highest of highs and during this week which was the lowest of lows.  As we saw last season, baseball is at its most fun when you not only have a team that wins, but also when you have a group of players that you are emotionally invested.  It’s better when you get to root for a team that you genuinely like.  As the manager of the Mets, Collins has created a culture in that clubhouse that does both.

This isn’t the first time we have seen this with Collins.  There was him hand-writing a letter to a grieving family, or his gathering the team during Spring Training workouts to take a picture with a child who just had heart transplant surgery.  At his core, Collins is a good man, who has done a fine job representing this organization.  While we sometime lose that when he makes head-scratching decisions, we are again reminded of that again this past week as he showed himself to be a leader and a good human being.

Editor’s Note: this was also published on Mets Merized Online

Mets Need to Clinch As Soon As Possible

With the Mets beating the Marlins, and the Reds beating the Cardinals, the Mets magic number to claim one of the two Wild Card spots is two. This means the Mets can claim a Wild Card spot as early as Friday or as late as Saturday. It would behoove the Mets to clinch as soon as possible for many reasons. 

For starters, there is the issue of their starting pitcher. As it stands right now, Noah Syndergaard is slated to pitch on the regular season finale. In the event the Mets have not wrapped up the Wild Card by then, Terry Collins will have little choice but to throw Syndergaard. You do not want the Mets to miss out on the postseason because you held your ace back for a game that was not yet guaranteed. If the Mets are forced to pitch Syndergaard on Sunday, the Mets choices for the Wild Card Game will be either Bartolo Colon, who has an injured tendon in his right foot, on short rest or the unproven rookies Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman. In reality, there is only one pitcher the Mets can trust right now in a winner-take-all game and that is Syndergaard.

Another important reason the Mets need to clinch early is some of their better players need some rest. Asdrubal Cabrera has been the best hitter in all of major league baseball in September.  He is also dealing with two knee problems.  He has really been dealing with a left knee issue all season and just the other day, he fouled a ball off his right knee.  As a result of these injuries, Cabrera has taken up the habit of sliding whenever possible to stop his momentum to keep pressure off his knees.  With that in mind, he can certainly use an extra couple of days off.  The Mets should want to get them for him too considering how well he has hit since coming off the disabled list.

There is also the issue of Yoenis Cespedes and his injured quad.  While he has been much healthier and hitting better than he was while he was hobbled, he has not been the same hot hitting Cespedes Mets fans have grown to love.  Since coming off the disabled list he is “only hitting” .269/.346/.522 with nine homers and 26 RBI.  These are for sure terrific numbers, but they are not the numbers the Mets have come to expect from Cespedes.  An extra couple of days should help him recuperate a little more and get some more of his power back.

The Mets bullpen can also use some time off as well.  Right now, Addison Reed has made the third most appearances in the major leagues.  The 77 appearances is already a career high for him as are the 74.2 innings pitched.  Jeurys Familia has pitched in more games and thrown more innings than any other closer in baseball.  Throw in Fernando Salas heavy September workload, and you have a tired 7-8-9 trio heading into the postseason.  A couple of days off will certainly do each of these pitchers a lot of good.

Additionally, clinching early will allow the Mets to give an older player like Curtis Granderson a few days of rest before the postseason.  It will also allow the Mets to see if Lucas Duda is ready to fully takeover for James Loney at first base.  Furthermore, it allows the Mets to play Michael Conforto to get him going to permit him to be as effective a pinch hitter off the bench as possible this postseason.

One or two days may not seem like much to accomplish all of these goals, but it really is. Those days permit the Mets to set up Syndergaard to be ready to pitch, and it gives Cabrera and Cespedes, the Mets two most important hitters right now, time off their feet to be as fresh as possible. As long as the Mets have that, they will not only have a good shot at winning the Wild Card Game, but it will also improve their chances of making a deep run in the postseason. 

Seth Lugo and the Mets Take Care of Business

That’s exactly what we’ve come to expect from a Seth Lugo start. He’s not going to give up more than two earned runs. He’s going to bear down and be at his best when there are runners on base. Most importantly, he’s going to give the Mets a chance to win. 

In the first, Lugo navigated his way out of a jam after a Martin Prado two run homer. Lugo would intentionally walk Justin Bour after a Giancarlo Stanton two out double to get to Jeff Mathis. Lugo struck out Mathis to get out of the inning. 

In the third, the Marlins would have runners at first and second with one out and Stanton walking to the plate. Lugo got Stanton to foul out, and then he got Bour to groundout to end the inning. 

In the sixth, Collins wouldn’t let Lugo get out if the “jam.”  After a Bour one out single, Collins lifted Lugo at 82 pitches so face the same Mathis who Lugo struck out to get out of the first. Hansel Robles would justify Collins decision by striking out Mathis and then inducing an Adeiny Hechavarria grounder to end the inning. 

That set up the Fernando SalasAddison ReedJeurys Familia 7-8-9 tandem to close out the 5-2 win. 

Once again, the Mets scored their runs off the long ball. 

In the second, James Loney, who was starting in place of Lucas Duda and his sore back, hit a two run homer off Jose Urena to tie the score. 

In the fourth, Lugo started a rally with a two out double. He then came around to score on a Jose Reyes double. 

In the fifth, Jay Bruce continued his hit hitting with a two run homer scoring Curtis Granderson. Over Bruce’s last five games, Bruce has gone 7-16 with three homers and five RBI. That accounts for roughly 40% of Bruce’s homers and RBI as a Met. 

With that, the Mets magic number to win the Wild Card now stands at three with three games left in the season. The Mets control their own destiny, and as long as they put together three more games like this, they will certainly return to the postseason. 

Game Notes: Granderson was 4-4 with a walk. He has now reached on eight straight plate appearances. Asdrubal Cabrera somehow went 0-5. Juan Lagares came on for Bruce for defense, and he was 0-1 at the plate. Familia recorded his 50th save of the season surpassing Francisco Cordero and Jose Valverde for the most saves by a Dominican born pitcher in a season. 

Seth Lugo’s Last Start Is Just the Beginning

Tonight marks Seth Lugo‘s last start in what has been an already incredible season for him.  More than any other pitcher in the Mets organization, it was unlikely that Lugo would find himself in this position.

After 14 starts and a 6.93 ERA for AAA Las Vegas, the Mets organization decided Lugo should not be a starting pitcher.  It was certainly understandable.  The Mets major league team was flush with young starting pitching with Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven MatzZack Wheeler was supposed to join them soon as he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.  If the Mets needed a spot starter, there was Logan Verrett, who did the job quite admirably last year, and Sean Gilmartin, who pitched well in the majors last season.  When you also consider the Mets had well regarded pitching prospects in Gabriel Ynoa and Robert Gsellman, it was seemingly time to move Lugo to the bullpen.  At 26 years old, it was probably his best chance to make it to the majors.

Lo and behold, that’s exactly how he would make it to the bigs.  In his first major league appearance, he unleashed what was then the best curveball ever thrown in the Statcast Era.  The pitch fooled Anthony Rizzo, a player who finished in the top four in MVP voting last year, is a three time All Star, and is hitting .305/.395/.579 with 23 homers and 72 RBI off right-handed pitching.  Right then and there Lugo not only showed that his curveball may be the best pitch in the entire Mets system, but that he belongs in the major leagues.

Lugo would continue to show he was a major leauger in his next nine appearances.  In those appearances, he pitched 17.0 innings with a 2.65 ERA and a 0.941 WHIP.  In those appearances, he limited batters to a .185/.273/.222 batting line.

Then disaster struck – not to Lugo, but to the Mets starting rotation.  With Lugo pitching well out of the bullpen, he soon found himself in the one place no one thought he was ever going to be.  The starting rotation.  In his first start, Lugo was much better than anyone ever imagined pitching 6.2 innings against the Giants.  He was able to be economical with his pitches thereby allowing him to go deep into the game despite it being his first start in two months.

From there, Lugo has shown he belongs in the rotation.  In Lugo’s seven starts, he is 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.104 WHIP.  When there are runners in scoring position, Lugo has shown the ability to bear down (some would call it luck) adding a few extra MPH to his fastball and relying a little more heavily on a curveball that generates both swings and misses as well as groundballs.  As a result, batters are only hitting .163/.259/.233 off of him in those situations.

That’s where Lugo finds himself on his last start of the regular season.  He’s taking the mound against the Marlins in the hopes of dropping the Mets magic number to clinch one of the Wild Card spots from four to three or two.  He’s also making his case that he should pitch the Wild Card Game in the event Syndergaard has to pitch in the regular season finale on Sunday.  He’s also making the case he should be the third starter over Gsellman this postseason.

He’s also making the case that he belongs in the long term plans of the New York Mets.  He’s already done a terrific job of doing that so far.  Another strong start here and a good postseason, it’ll be a guarantee.

Fernando Salas Is This Year’s Addison Reed

Last season, on the eve of September, Sandy Alderson went out and obtained Addison Reed from the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Up until that point in the season, Reed was  having a poor year that included a demotion to AAA.  In his 38 appearances with the Diamondbacks, he was 2-2 with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.500 WHIP while only striking out 7.5 batters per nine innings.  When Reed joined the Mets, he became a much different pitcher.  In his 17 September appearances, he was 1-1 with a 1.17 ERA, a 1.043 WHIP, and a 10.0 K/9.  With that, Reed locked down the seventh inning a Mets team and bullpen that would go all the way to the World Series.

Fernando Salas could be this year’s version of Addison Reed.

Like Reed, Alderson went out and got Salas right before the waiver trade deadline.  Similar to Reed, Alderson pounced on a reliever with a good track record, had some closing experience, and was having a down year.  In Salas’ 58 appearances with the Angels, he was 3-6 with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.260 WHIP.  Now, he had been pitching better in August, but he still had a 3.48 ERA for the month.  That’s a nice reliever to have, but that’s not the lockdown seventh inning reliever a team with World Series aspirations needs.

Well, like Reed the year before, Salas has become a better pitcher with the Mets.  In his 14 appearances with the Mets, Salas has a sterling 1.88 ERA and a 0.628 WHIP.  He has gone from striking out 7.2 batters per nine innings to striking out 9.4 batters per nine innings with the Mets.  Salas is maintaining this high level with the Mets despite his throwing the fifth most innings in all of baseball in the month of September.

What is interesting bout Salas’ turnaround is that his stuff hasn’t changed all that much from the Angels to the Mets. He is getting slightly more movement, but it’s not so appreciable that he would become a completely different pitcher.  He still rarely uses his slider, and he uses his changeup as an out pitch.  Looking at these numbers, you would expect a regression.  However, there is something different Salas is doing that is not indicated here that gives you hope this tremendous stretch is for real.  He’s throwing strikes.

Salas went from walking 3.0 batters per nine innings this year with the Angels to not walking anyone with the Mets.  The reason is Salas is throwing more strikes.  He’s getting into the games, establishing his fastball quickly, and he is pounding the zone.

A large part of this is Salas making a concerted effort to throw more strikes.  Another part of the reason is the difference between the Mets catchers and the Angels catchers.  Again, Travis d’Arnaud has shown himself to be one of the better pitch framers in all of baseball.  Rene Rivera is also having a better season in that respect than he has had in year’s past.  As for the Angels catchers Carlos Perez and Jeff Bandy, they have not been good pitch framers at all this season.  The difference between the two sets of catchers is a big one.  It is the difference between falling behind early in the count allowing you to set up a batter for a strikeout to trying to get a pitch over so you don’t issue a free pass.  It is the difference between a called strike three and a batter getting a free pass.

Overall, Salas has been the beneficiary of the Mets catchers exceptional pitch framing.  The Mets have been the beneficiaries of Salas’ pitching.  With him, the Mets have a pitcher that has allowed them to ease off the overworked Reed and Jeurys Familia down the stretch.  With him, the Mets have a terrific 7-8-9 trio to close out important games.

Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online.

Terry Collins Decision of the Game: Why Was Cabrera and Reyes Playing in a Blowout?

When the score was 4-1, you understood Terry Collins keeping his big guys in the game. However, why are the Mets keeping them in during a 9-1 game?  

Asdrubal Cabrera is so banged up that he has taken to sliding to stop his momentum whenever he can. Anytime you can get him off the field and give him some rest, you need to do it. Getting that rest is more important than him hitting that ninth inning single that helped turn a 9-1 lead into a 12-1 lead. 
Cabrera’s single came after a Jose Reyes base hit. Reyes remained in the game despite his tripping over second on his eighth inning double. Rather than take him out there or after the inning, he was left to finish the game. 

The Mets still had Gavin CecchiniEric Campbell, and Matt Reynolds on the bench. They were all quite capable of playing an inning or two to protect a 9-1 lead. They’re especially capable when the Mets are going to use Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia in the game.

The decision was even more baffling when you consider the Mets announced Wilmer Flores is still unable to take batting practice. Remember Flores isn’t playing because Tim Teufel is a poor third base coach and because Collins didn’t think about pinch running for a player slower than molasses. 

Collins apparently learned nothing from the Flores situation.  It didn’t hurt the Mets last night, but as we have seen, it can’t hurt you at any given moment. Y

Mets Beat Up On the Marlins

After last night, the Mets needed to get things back on track lest they once again miss the playoffs due to them losing games to the Marlins. Things didn’t get off to a good start with Dee Gordon hitting a leadoff single, stealing second, and coming home on a Marcell Ozuna single.

Gordon’s stolen base would be the 48th stolen base against Noah Syndergaard. This was about as poor a start as you could expect. After that Syndergaard would get locked in. 

Syndergaard would go six innings allowing five hits, one earned, and no walks with eight strikeouts. It’s exactly the type of start both he and the Mets needed. 

The Mets quickly claimed the lead off Tom Koehler, who the Mets hit very well. In the second, Jay Bruce continued his hot hitting with a two run homer. He would go 2-5 with a run, two RBI, and a homer. 

In the third, Yoenis Cespedes hit a monster two run homer over the “Home Run Sculpture.”

This marked the first time both Bruce and Cespedes homered in the same game for the Mets. 

The Mets would have a 4-1 lead, and Don Mattingly would do all he could do to keep the Marlins in the game making seven pitching changes. It worked until the eighth inning. 

The Mets put a huge five spot on the board blowing the game wide open. After the Marlins intentionally walked Cespedes to load the bases, Curtis Granderson hit a two RBI single making it 6-1. 

Bruce then singled to reload the bases, and then with two outs, Lucas Duda got his biggest hit since being activated from the disabled list with a bases clearing double. Duda has been sharper than expected in his return, but this was his best game. On the night, he was 2-3 with three RBI, two walks (one intentional), and the double. 

As if things weren’t good enough with a 9– 1 lead, the Mets scored three in the top of the ninth to make it 12-1. The bases were again loaded. Michael Conforto hit an RBI force out, and Granderson hit a RBI double to deep center. It was a huge night for Granderson with him going 2-4 with two runs, three RBI, two walks, and a double. 

The final run was scored on a Juan Lagares sacrifice fly. It was the first time Lagares swung the bat at a pitch since returning from surgery to repair a torn tendon in his left thumb. 

Tonight, everything was clicking, and the Mets took care of business. Their magic number is now four. 

Game Notes: Syndergaard was 2-3 at the plate. Jose Reyes was 3-6 with two runs and a double. Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia each pitched an inning after not having pitched in four days. 

Terry Collins Decision of the Game: Are You Sticking with Bartolo Colon or Not?

The reason why Bartolo Colon has been effective all season has been his ability to locate and put movement on his high 80s fastball.  When he is unable to do that, he becomes a batting practice pitcher.  Last night, Colon was a batting practice pitcher.  It all come unraveling in a four run second inning.

Consider for a second, the first out of the inning was a sacrifice bunt by the opposing pitcher Adam Conley. Up until that point, the Marlins first four batters of the inning had hit the ball hard, and there were already two runs scored.  Dee Gordon the followed his first inning home run with a two RBI single making it 5-0.  With the way the Mets offense has been hitting lately, and with the Marlins bullpen most likely needing to do a bulk of the heavy lifting on the night, this game was not out of reach.

What was interesting was Colon was due up second in the top of the third.  Last week, Terry Collins was very aggressive pulling his pitchers in a search for more offense to win games.  Granted, there is a massive difference between pulling Colon early than Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman, or Gabriel Ynoa, but the game was already on the verge of getting out of hand at 5-0.  Furthermore, with Gsellman going deep into Sunday’s game along with the Mets not needing Ynoa or Rafael Montero to start another game this year, the Mets could’ve rolled the dice in pulling Colon.  Instead, Collins stuck with the veteran in the hopes that he would get himself right and go deep in the game.

In the bottom of the third, it was clear that wasn’t going to happen.  Right off the bat, Christian Yelich hit the ball hard, and it deflected off of Colon.  After the play, Collins and Ray Ramirez would go out to the mound with Colon ignoring Ramirez.  Giancarlo Stanton followed with a hard line drive out to center.  At this point in time, it was clear Colon didn’t have it, and yet he would go another batter.  Justin Bour then hit a hard line drive to right that Jay Bruce misplayed into a two run triple to make it 7-0.  Right then and there, the game was effectively over.  It was right then and there that Collins lifted Colon for Ynoa.

If you want to defend Colon pitching to start the third, you can make the case.  You can make an even better case given the emotions of the night and the way Colon was being hit around, he should not have been in the game.  The issue becomes why not let Colon finish the inning?  It’s one thing to go to your bullpen for six plus innings to stay in a close game.  It’s a whole other matter to go that deep into the pen for a game you’ve already lost.  Why not let Colon figure it out?  At that point, what is the difference between 7-0 and 10-0?  You might as well try to steal a couple of innings out of him to save the bullpen a bit – even with the expanded rosters.

As it turned out, the Mets bullpen wouldn’t get burned.  They got good work out of a group of relievers who are most likely not going to be on the postseason roster with Ynoa, Montero, Erik Goeddel, Josh Edgin, and Jim Henderson.  Still, you have to question what Collins would have done if one of those guys were hit hard.  Would he have made one of them wear it, or would he have chased the unlikely comeback?  We’ll never be sure.  What we are sure of is Collins inability to play it one way might’ve cost the Mets what might’ve been a winnable game.

Syndergaard Needs to Make This His Last Start of the Year

As we saw with the Mets last year, your chances of winning in the postseason are greatly enhanced when you are able to properly set your rotation.  With the Mets clinching in plenty of time, they were able to make sure Jacob deGrom went against Clayton Kershaw in Game One of the NLDS, and they were ready to make sure Matt Harvey started a pivotal Game Three.  The Mets were also able to start Noah Syndergaard in Game Two and have him ready for a lights out relief appearance in the clinching Game Five.  If the Mets were not able to set their rotation just like that, it is very possible the Mets don’t make it out of the NLDS let alone make it all the way to the World Series.

In many ways, that is what is on the line for Syndergaard in his start against the Marlins tonight.

As it stands right now, the Mets have a half game lead over the Giants for the first Wild Card.  With the Mets having won the season series against the Giants, all they need to do is just tie the Giants for the first Wild Card to play the Wild Card Game at Citi Field.  The Mets also have a 1.5 game lead over the Cardinals for one of the two Wild Card spots.  All told, the Mets magic number to get a Wild Card spot is five. That number goes down to four if Syndergaard goes out there and wins tonight.  It could go even lower with a Cardinals loss.

The Mets need to get to that clincher as soon as possible.  With Syndergaard pitching tonight, his next scheduled start will be on Sunday, which is the regular season finale.  If Syndergaard is forced to make this start, that means he will be unavailable to start in Wednesday’s Wild Card Game.  If Syndergaard has to start on Sunday, it means the Mets have to choose between Seth Lugo or Robert Gsellman on normal rest or Bartolo Colon on short rest to make the biggest start of the season.  Simply put, Syndergaard is the Mets best pitcher, and he is the man the Mets want on the mound for the Wild Card Game.

The Mets also need a big start from Syndergaard because the Mets need to help move on from the emotion that swept them up last night.  Both Yoenis Cespedes and Travis d’Arnaud were crying on the field.  It was a hard game for the Mets to play.  From an outsider’s perspective, it appeared that the emotions of the night got the better of them.  That is certainly understandable, and it would be understandable if it happened again tonight.  No one expects the pain from losing Jose Fernandez to go away just because the Marlins won a big game last night.  Still, the Mets have to move on and get back to playing winning baseball.  Syndergaard shutting down the Marlins will go a long way towards helping the team get back on the winning track.

Finally, Syndergaard needs a big start for himself.  In his last outing, he threw 99 pitches, and he couldn’t get out of the fourth inning against a terrible Braves team.  In that game, he allowed eight hits and walked three while allowing five runs in just 3.2 innings.  That’s not Syndergaard.  He needs to get back on the mound tonight and get back to being Syndergaard.  If he doesn’t, the Mets have no shot at winning the Wild Card Game or in making a deep run in the postseason.

There is a lot on the line in tonight’s start.  Syndergaard has to help rejuventate not just the Mets but also himself.  He has to do all that is necessary to make sure this is his last start of the regular season.  It’s a lot to put on his broad shoulders.  However, as we have seen in his young career, he can certainly handle it.