Mets May Need To RIGHT Ship

We need to start with a couple of caveats here. First and foremost, it’s only two games. Moreover, those two games were started by reigning Cy Young Sandy Alcantara and Jesús Luzardo.

That all said, the New York Mets right-handed hitting options outside of Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Starling Marte were going to be a question mark at best. Problem at worse.

So far, it has looked like a problem.

Mark Canha’s bat has looked as slow as it did in September and October of last season. Tommy Pham is hitless in four relatively non-competitive at-bats.

We can and should say many times over it’s early. However, we’re seeing problems of last year resurface for both players. That creates a dilemma for the Mets.

Down in Triple-A, they have Brett Baty who looked ready to go. Yes, he’s left-handed, but he would force at least one of Canha or Eduardo Escobar to the bench.

This could keep Canha and Escobar fresher. Mainly, it shifts the positions and responsibilities of veterans. Instead of everyday players, they become utility or semi-regular players.

Moving Canha to the bench could have Jeff McNeil in left with Luis Guillorme at second. The Mets could also opt for Guillorme at third with Escobar on the bench.

If no one is hitting, then Guillorme’s glove needs to be on the field everyday. In reality, it always needed to be there.

Same goes for Baty. He always should have been on the roster. He’s a better defender now than Escobar, and he has more potential to be a better hitter than Canha or Escobar.

Again, this seems to be a rush to judgment, but that’s partially because the Mets have a rapidly approaching deadline. Per Baseball America, if Baty is called up with two weeks, the Mets may be eligible for the Prospect Promotion Incentive.

Due to the timelines, if Baty is called up soon, the Mets are eligible for a first round pick and international bonus pool money if he wins Rookie of the Year. Even if he were not to win it, the Mets could receive future compensation if he finishes in the top three in MVP voting until he’s arbitration eligible.

If Baty is up, there will still be plenty of at-bats to go around to Canha and Escobar. That’s partially the result of Daniel Vogelbach being a platoon DH.

However, at some point, the Mets need to stop worrying about finding them at-bats and just give playing time to worthy players who can help them win.

At the moment, Canha and Pham look overmatched at the plate and aren’t great defenders. Escobar isn’t a good defender and again appears to be a platoon bat. There’s a deadline on Baty fast approaching.

The Mets created a problem by assembling this roster. The right-handed bats were very questionable and look all the more so through two games.

Given Baty and PPI, they can’t just wait for Canha, Escobar, and Pham to right the ship. Mets need to act quickly and right the ship.

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Luis Guillorme Needs To Play Everyday

The New York Mets made a series of puzzling decisions when forming their 2023 Opening Day roster. Brett Baty was sent down to Triple-A Syracuse. Tommy Pham was given a spot on the team as a fourth outfielder. All of this despite Darin Ruf being designated for assignment.

With Pham, you see the Mets are going to rely on its older veterans to start the year. Mark Canha is guaranteed a spot in left, and Eduardo Escobar is going play third in some capacity.

Putting aside any questions or disbelief, what really needs to be analyzed at this point is how the Mets should best utilize their roster. Looking at the roster as it stands right now, the only conclusion is Luis Guillorme needs to be an everyday player whether that be at second or third base.

If you look at the rule changes being implemented for the 2023 season, they almost beg for the Mets to play Guillorme regularly. That is from a defensive and na offensive standpoint.

The defensive point was obvious. Guillorme is an outstanding defender. He is a more natural second baseman, but he has made the adjustment to be excellent at third. That was part of the reason he was able to force himself into a platoon at the position last season.

Keep in mind, with no shift, infield defense will be at a premium. Remember, Escobar was a -6 OAA last year when you could fully shift. Without the shift, the Mets will need more from here, and it is highly doubtful he can give it to them.

There is also the matter of left field. Last season, Canha had a -1 OAA in left. We also saw his sprint speed dip every so slightly from 27.8 ft/sec to 27.5 ft/sec. That’s not earth shattering, but he is now 34 and will be more likely to lose another step than to gain it back.

There’s also the matter of his bat. His barrels and launch angles cratered last season. We also saw him limp to the finish line last season hitting .249/.349/.383 over his final 37 games of the season. He carried that into the Wild Card Series going 0-for10 at the plate.

This all isn’t to say Canha and Escobar don’t have value. In a limited or semi-regular role, they can stay fresher and do what they do well in shorter spurts. In the event of injury, they can step up into a starting role over a stretch.

In the meantime, we can see Guillorme playing excellent defense at second or third while Jeff McNeil moving between second and left. We can also see Guillorme’s contact oriented approach thrive all the more with the institution of the pitch clock and the ban on the shift.

Overall, Guillorme promises to be much better defensively than what Canha or Escobar can provide. He may also have the chance to outperform them offensively. All told, he is just a better and more valuable player than either of them necessitating he be in the everday lineup.

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Darin Ruf DFA Makes Brett Baty Decision Worse

The New York Mets surprised everyone when they announced Darin Ruf was going to be designated for assignment. On the merits, the Mets should have made this decision, but organizations do not usually accept poor trades this early. Instead, they try to extract some value thereby making the deal all the more worse.

Now, while the Mets deserve an immense amount of credit for admitting their mistakes and eating most if not all of Ruf’s $3 million salary. However, the Ruf decision reinforced another mistake the Mets made.

Ruf was supposed to be the Mets platoon DH with Daniel Vogelbach. Now, he will not. Presumably, that job is now going to be handed to Tommy Pham, who had a 115 wRC_+ against left-handed pitching last season and has a 132 mark for his career.

In a one-for-one swap, this makes sense. However, we also need to point out here Eduardo Escobar had a 133 wRC+ against left-handed pitching last year with a 109 mark for his career. Based on more recent seasons, Escobar would be the more preferred platoon DH option.

That goes further when you consider he has more versatility. While his -6 OAA last season indicates he should not play third on an everyday basis, he does have the ability to play there for a game or two. He has the ability to play a good second base. In fact, he had a 3 OAA at the position in 2021.

Moreover, Escobar had some exposure to left field this spring. Overall, Escobar is a very versatile player who could be a semi-regular player. That would be of far more use to the Mets than Pham who has had a negative OAA as an outfielder in each of the past three seasons.

Of course, Escobar can’t be that versatile bench player and platoon DH option because the Mets optioned Brett Baty to Triple-A Syracuse to begin the season. That was despite his strong spring when he showed himself a superior defender than Escobar with a far higher offensive ceiling.

When the Mets were keeping Ruf, you almost understood the decision. The Mets were going to give Ruf one last opportunity to see what he could do when healthy. It’s not that you agreed with it, but you could understand the decision making.

Now, you really have to wonder what the Mets are thinking. The team wanted to give Baty the third base job last year, and it was a torn UCL in Baty’s thumb which stopped the transition. Now, when they can do it when Baty is clearly far ahead of Escobar, they are going to hold Baty back.

What the Mets are doing here is really puzzling, and it may cost them games in what should be a very tight National League East this season. Ruf is gone, but the ensuing decisions which should have been made in light of that decision didn’t happen. Hopefully, Baty will be up soon and helping the Mets make it back to the postseason.

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Mets Choose Veterans Over Baty, Vientos, And Winning

Before Darin Ruf played a game for the New York Mets, the trade was a bad deal. The J.D. Davis part made total sense. He was bad and needed to go. However, parting with Carson Seymour and Nick Zwack made the trade an insane overpay.

People tend to forget stuff like that when a player is great, and the team wins. However, Ruf had a 13 OPS+ with the Mets, is dealing with an arthritic wrist, and the Mets had a historic collapse before succumbing to the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card Round.

The Eduardo Escobar signing didn’t make sense when it happened. After all, he was never really a third baseman. There were a number of intangibles he brings where you understood the signing as the season progressed.

However, Escobar would eventually lose his third base job. He eventually fell into a platoon with Luis Guillorme. If not for an injury, he would have forever lost it to Brett Baty. To be fair, Escobar did have a great September and was a leader for the Mets.

However, that was all 2022. The Mets now need to figure out how best to build their team for 2023. Instead of doing that, they took all the lazy cop outs and stuck with the veterans.

Watching this spring, it was very clear Brett Baty was ready to take over the everyday third base job for the Mets. It was also clear Mark Vientos was better than Ruf as the right-handed platoon option, and it also seemed like he could take over for Daniel Vogelbach for the entirety of the job.

For Vientos, you understand the demotion. Vogelbach should put the miserable spring behind him and have a good year. It should also be noted being a short side platoon DH option is just about the worst way to develop a player.

Looking at Baty, choosing Ruf and Escobar over him made absolutely no sense whatsoever.

As has oft been noted, Escobar is a bad third baseman. He was a -6 OAA at the position last year. With the elimination of the shift, he may soon become downright unplayable at the position.

Still, Escobar had use for the team. While he hasn’t been a good left-handed hitter, he did thrive against left-handed pitching last year. He could have taken over Ruf’s role as the platoon DH. That is a far more preferable option.

First, Escobar is just a better hitter. More importantly, Escobar has far more versatility. He can play all the infield positions except first, and he was exposed to left field this spring. Having Escobar as the platoon DH option and on the bench makes the team stronger and more versatile.

Escobar being on the bench naturally coincides with Baty in the starting lineup. That would make the lineup deeper and the defense far better. As a result, the Mets would have been far better. Instead of pursuing that option, Eppler opted for excuses.

He said Nolan Arenado played more games in the minors. Of course, Arenado didn’t have to deal with a pandemic. Also, that wasn’t an issue when the Mets called up Baty last season.

In the end, this is the side product of a lot of things. Buck Showalter prefers veterans. The Mets are trying to justify two bad deals. Certainly, we cannot discount a bit of service time manipulation.

Whatever the case, the Mets 2023 Opening Day lineup isn’t nearly as good as it can or should be. As a result, Eppler failed the team in his main objective – getting the manager the best roster he possibly can.

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Eduardo Escobar In LF For WBC Helps Mets

Eduardo Escobar is going to play in the World Baseball Classic for Venezuela. Venezuela has a lot of talent in the infield, but outside Ronald Acuña Jr., they do not have a lot of talent in the outfield. As a result, there have been discussions about Escobar playing left field in the WBC.

Obviously, if the New York Mets had an issue with this, they would attempt to prevent Escobar from playing out in left. As a general rule, Venezuela would seek to acquiesce the Mets request. However, that is not what is happening here.

Instead, the Mets are looking to play Escobar in left field during spring training. Make no mistake, this isn’t just to help Escobar be in a position to play well out there for Venezuela. Rather, they are doing this to help the Mets in 2023.

If you recall last season, the Mets opted to have Escobar as the short side platoon for Luis Guillorme. For a moment, it seemed like Escobar lost the third base job forever as Brett Baty made his Major League debut. If not for Baty’s torn thumb ligament, Escobar may never have played third base for the Mets again.

In fact, there is an open question as to whether he is the best fit for the Mets in 2023. As noted here previously, with the elimination of the shift, Guillorme should be the Mets second baseman. As others have argued, Baty is the Mets best option at third because of his offensive potential, and the fact Escobar has not been a good Major League third baseman.

In 2022, Escobar had a -6 OAA at third, and he was a -3 OAA the previous season. Long story short, Escobar is not a good third baseman. Listening to Buck Showalter, he is going to prioritize defense and rightfully so. That should mean less of Escobar at third.

Not playing Escobar is justified, but that is not the same as saying he is not an important part of this team. Obviously, he profiles well as a platoon option at DH with Daniel Vogelbach. It should also be noted the Mets only have four outfielders on the roster. They could (and probably should) move Jeff McNeil out there.

However, it would make sense to see if Escobar can play out there. If he is going to be a semi-regular or utility player, he is going to have to play more than just second and third. He needs to learn left to be of more utility to the Mets.

Overall, the WBC presents an easy cover for the Mets to get a look at Escobar in left. Truth be told, the Mets needed to do this anyway. As a result, the WBC presented a unique opportunity for the Mets, and they took advantage of an opportunity to make their 2023 team more versatile.

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Brett Baty Should Be Opening Day Third Baseman

Back in 2019, the New York Mets had Pete Alonso begin the season on the Opening Day roster. The idea was he gave the team their best chance to win games, and they thought keeping him in the minors for two weeks could cost them the postseason. Essentially, one year of service time was not worth missing out on the postseason.

Of course, now, we know that was all part of the grift. The Wilpons knew they were going to be forced to sell, so they had Brodie Van Wagenen set out to completely mortgage the future to try to win that one year. That included starting Alonso in the majors and not caring about that extra year of control. The irony would be the Wilpons limited budget and cheapness ultimately did cost them the postseason as they didn’t have the money to address the bullpen.

While the plan was flawed from its inception with the Wilpons, it is a plan that has merit with a real owner like Steve Cohen. To wit, the Mets should look to eschew service time concerns and control, and they should have Brett Baty being the 2023 season on the Opening Day roster.

That is at least the general consensus from the scouting community. Keith Law of The Athletic says Baty has nothing to learn in the minors and is the Mets best third base option. Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline says Baty should be the third baseman in 2023 because he is an improvement defensively over Eduardo Escobar with a better offensive ceiling.

While Mets fans were understandably not impressed with Baty defensively in short sample size, Escobar has proven he can’t really play the position. He had a -6 OAA a year after he had a -3. As he’s 34 and with their being no shift in 2023, he is only going to get worse. The Mets did recognize that last season, and that is part of the reason why they moved him to a platoon with Luis Guillorme.

Guillorme has been previously addressed here. WIth the shift elimination rules and the limitations of Mark Canha, Guillorme should be the everyday second baseman. That would be the newly extended Jeff McNeil can move to left field where he has been historically move effective. It should also be less wear-and-tear on a player the Mets can have through his age 35 season.

Baty can at least be adequate defensively, which is a step up from Escobar. While the ground ball rates are a problem, he has real offensive potential. He needs to improve those ground ball rates. The hope there is Jeremy Barnes can do that. Even though Baty made significant strides on this front in Double-A last season, Barnes is still arguably the best person to get Baty to lift the ball and get the most out of his power.

What needs noting here is it may not happen right away with Baty. That is fine because the Mets still have the option to send him back down to Triple-A and shift to the Escboar/Guillorme platoon which was very effective last season. Better yet, he can begin to fulfill his promise and be that bat the Mets were hoping to find this offseason. The only way the Mets can find that out is by putting him on the Opening Day roster.

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Tommy Pham Bad Move For Mets

Tommy Pham is one of those moves that sounds good. After all, people can remember him being a good player at one time, so certainly, it must be a coup to get him on this New York Mets team as a fourth outfielder. However, you have to ask yourself how were the Mets even able to get him as a fourth outfielder.

The answer is simple – Pham is not a good baseball player anymore. Moreover, it is difficult to imagine how the outfielder who will be 35 on Opening Day will suddenly regain his ability to play baseball.

Last year, between the Cincinnati Reds and Boston Red Sox, two places great for right-handed hitters, Pham hit .236./.312/.374 with 23 doubles, one triple, 17 homers, and 63 RBI. That season wasn’t an anomaly; it is who Pham is now. Over the past three seasons, Pham is hitting .231/.324/.372.

Looking at the advanced numbers, Pham had an 89 wRC+, and over the past three, Pham has a 94 wRC+. When looking at Baseball Savant., you get a clearer picture of what has happened with Pham.

Simply put, Pham is a dead red hitter. He hits the fastball well. However, he can no longer hit a breaking or off-speed pitch. He still hits the fastball quite hard, and he can truly do damage to those pitchers. That said, he really can’t hit anything else. In reality, that makes him an easy out, which is indicated by his declining numbers over the past three years.

It should come as no surprise Pham does have decent numbers against left-handed pitching. In 2022, he had a 115 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, and over the past three seasons, he has a 111 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Certainly, this could make him part of the platoon equation at DH for Daniel Vogelbach.

Here, it should be noted Darin Ruf had a 116 wRC+ against left-handed pitching last year, and he has a 137 over the past three seasons. While the counter-argument is Pham could better serve as a fourth outfielder, that is not entirely correct as Pham had a -6 OAA in left as opposed to Ruf’s -5. Put another way, they are both bad outfielders who are best suited to DH.

On Ruf, he can at least play first base to spell Pete Alonso. Another note here is Ruf should serve as a warning for Pham. Ruf was a semi-regular player who struggled in a pure reserve role for the Mets. Now, the Mets are looking to do the same with Pham.

Really, at the end of the day, it is difficult to ascertain what purpose Pham fills for this team. He’s not an upgrade in any sense, and if you want to make out that fantasy football fight with Joc Pederson to be part of a larger picture, he could serve as a detriment in the clubhouse, but that may be a bit of a stretch as he has not seemed to have an in-season issue with a teammate. However, we also can’t ignore it.

However, that feud with Pederson should not matter. The Mets didn’t need Pham. In reality, they needed to move Mark Canha to a fourth outfielder role, and that could’ve been accomplished by signing an outfielder, or as they tried with Carlos Correa, by signing an infielder. Whatever the case, the Mets signed Pham for one year meaning he should not stand as an impediment should he struggle or the team is ready to turn to Brett Baty at third or left.

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Maybe Darin Ruf Is Answer to Mets Darin Ruf Problem

While the New York Mets have addressed many of their offseason needs, the one area which remains unaddressed is DH. To a certain extent, it seems odd a team so willing to go well beyond the point where teams would consider spending has seen their offseason stall on this front. Certainly, the Carlos Correa drama was part of that.

However, the Mets did see viable options sign elsewhere. Andrew McCutchen purportedly turned down more money from the Mets to return to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Trey Mancini is a Chicago Cub. Adam Duvall just signed with the Boston Red Sox.

This leaves the Mets trying to talk themselves into the next tier of players. Jurickson Profar is a popular target, but he’s not much of a hitter. He does increase the Mets versatility, but he is also not someone who has not thrived in a reserve or part-time role.

Robbie Grossman is an interesting choice. He has good numbers against left-handed pitching, and he does have a good walk rate. Typically speaking, he makes good contact, and he can hold his own defensively. Moreover, he has thrived in a reserve/part-time role. However, he has zero power.

That brings us back to Darin Ruf. What this Mets team was sorely lacking was power, and the Mets gave up way too much to get Ruf to try to help address their power issues. Obviously, Ruf did not do that last season posting a 13 OPS+. He did get one postseason start drawing a walk and a HBP in his one start.

It should be noted Ruf did land on the IL after he was acquired by the Mets with a neck strain. Certainly, it’s possible that impacted his performance. If it did, the hope is he could be back to being a right-handed DH platoon option against left-handed pitching. In his career, he does have a 143 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.

He’s slightly more than a platoon DH option. He can spell Pete Alonso at first base on occasion. That’s important with Alonso needing a break every now and then. He can’t play the outfield everyday in his career, but he can at least play there for a game or an inning or two. This does have some value to the team.

Mostly, he’s simply replaceable. If he doesn’t get the job done, Eduardo Escobar or Mark Canha can easily take over his role. That would require the Mets to play Luis Guillorme as their primary second baseman, but that is something they should be doing anyway. There is also the question of when the Mets are going to call-up Francisco Álvarez or Mark Vientos to at least take over part of this role.

In the end, the Mets have Ruf and are paying him. He has a role which can be easily supplanted by the talent on this team. The upgrades on the free agent market are gone. At this point, the Mets might as well role with him and see if he can rebound.

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Trey Mancini Interesting Fit For New York Mets

Now that Carlos Correa has signed with the Minnesota Twins, the question is now what? The New York Mets still need to add another bat, and with Michael Conforto signing with the San Francisco Giants, their options have become even more limited.

One of the better hitters left on the market is Trey Mancini, who played for Buck Showalter with the Baltimore Orioles. At 31, it does seem as if he is moving past his prime, but he does have some thunder remaining in his bat.

Last season, Mancini had a 104 wRC+. That came on the heels of a 105 season, which was a drop from his 132 mark in 2019. Of course, two things must be noted here. First and foremost, he missed the 2020 season due to cancer. Second he was thriving with the Orioles before being traded to the Houston Astros at the trade deadline.

Looking at Baseball Savant, Mancini has seen his average exit velocities and barrels drop each of his past five seasons. However, he did hit enough last season to be an effective DH. He also appears to be one of the players who could benefit from the shift.

Last season, Mancini had a .228 wOBA against the shift. When he was not shifted, Mancini had a .314 wOBA. It should be noted the shift numbers have been anomaly for his career with him posting strong numbers against the shift for most of his career. Then again, that was back when he had a higher exit velocity.

Where Mancini does his damage is against right-handed pitching. In 2022, he had a 111 wRC+ against right-handed pitching against an 88 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. For his career, Mancini is actually better against left-handed pitching with a 112 wRC+ against a 111 against right-handed pitching.

Part of the reason for the change in numbers was his role with the Astros. Before the trade deadline, Mancini was a 98 wRC+ against left-handed pitching while with the Orioles. That dropped to a 64 with the Astros. It should also be noted Mancini is typically a much better first half player than second half player.

To a certain degree, we see Mancini did not and would not thrive in the role Darin Ruf had last year. On that note, Ruf did not thrive in that role. Ruf and Mancini are really everyday players or semi-regular players who have platoon advantages.

This is again where Daniel Vogelbach presents a problem. His numbers against right-handed pitching cannot be matched by anyone, but his possible platoon partners do not thrive on limited duty. That would seem to qualify for Mancini, who at this point in his career is an everyday DH who can fill-in at a position for a game or two. No more.

Perhaps, Billy Eppler can start moving things around to make Mancini or someone else a fit. However, it does appear too late in the game to start doing that. It seems Vogelbach is in place at DH. While the Mets should look to improve on Ruf, and Mancini promises to be that, it does not appear he can truly fulfill that role.

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Mets Should Move Canha Over Escobar

Based upon Carlos Correa‘s Instagram and comments, we are back to feeling good about him signing with the New York Mets. At least according to Correa, it’s a fait accompli, and we should treat it as such while further inquiring what is next for the New York Mets.

Reports are the Mets will look to move Eduardo Escobar once the deal is completed with Correa. To a certain extent, you understand the thinking. Correa replaces Escobar as the everyday third baseman leaving Escobar as the odd man out. However, that ignores Jeff McNeil‘s versatility.

As we saw last year, McNeil was very good at second, left, and right. Over the course of his career, McNeil hits and generally plays better when he is in the outfield. Of course, to move him out there on a more regular basis, the Mets would have to displace Mark Canha. As a result, signing Correa is really a debate of Canha and Escobar.

To get the first part out of the way, while Steve Cohen has shown he doesn’t care about the money, Canha is the more expensive player. He is owed $11.5 million in 2023 with a $2 million buyout of his $11.5 million option for 2024. Escobar is owed $9.5 million with a $500,000 buyout of his $9 million 2024 option. With the 90% Cohen tax, the $2 million difference between their salaries is $3.8 million on the Mets books irrespective of the buyouts.

However, it is more than just the cost savings. Escobar is a better fit for this Mets roster.

First and foremost, Escobar provides more versatility. He has played second and third over the last few seasons, and that provides for insurance in the event of a Correa or McNeil injury. Remember, both players have some durability issues, and we may see a point where both are on the IL or banged up at the same time necessitating playing Escobar and Luis Guillorme.

Another factor is the Mets are very left-handed in certain spots, especially at DH where Daniel Vogelbach is solely a platoon option there. For his career, Escobar is a 109 wRC+ against left-handed pitching with a 133 wRC+ last season. On that, he seemed to settle in well platooning third base with Guillorme, and he does promise to do that with Vogelbach next season.

On the contrary, Canha has a 110 wRC+ against left-handed pitching and a 115 last season. These are certainly not bad numbers, but they are not at the level of Escobar last season. Another note is Escobar has far more power in his bat providing an element to the lineup the Mets need which Canha really does not supply.

At their ages, both players are in decline off their primes with Canha in steeper decline seeing his hard hit rates and defense continue to drop in a steady fashion. Escobar is fighting off Father Time a bit better while being a hair faster on the field.

More important than any of that is neither Canha or Escobar can really play everyday right now. Based on what we saw in 2022, Escobar can more easily slot into a part-time role. After all, he did it effectively last season, and when they needed to call upon him to play everyday again, he was able to answer that call. We still don’t know if Canha can do that.

Whoever the Mets opt to keep, they are going to have to become more versatile. Escobar is already that, and ideally, the Mets will have him working out and learning first to spell Pete Alonso. It would also behoove him to learn to play left for the first time since 2017. As for Canha, he has played third in a pinch, but he has been predominantly an outfielder since 2017.

In the end, the Mets have to ask themselves two questions. First, who can better complement this roster? Second, who will net us a better return? Ultimately, the answer to these questions will dictate which of these two are moved more than anything else.

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