Throughout the offseason, we have heard the Mets have been looking to trade Juan Lagares and his bad contract in the hopes of freeing up money to make another move this offseason. However, after the Mets signed Jay Bruce to a backloaded three year $39 million deal, there was this report:
I had mentioned it last night, but am told with regards to Lagares: Mets could move him, but would prefer not to. Mets need good defensive players, and there's uncertainty with Conforto.
— Matt Ehalt (@MattEhalt) January 11, 2018
Just think about that for a second. Heading into the 2015 season, the Mets gave the starting shortstop job to Wilmer Flores despite everyone knowing he was not defensively capable of handling shortstop for a full season.
With the struggles of Lagares during the 2015 season, the Mets have primarily went with Yoenis Cespedes and Curtis Granderson in center, or at least that was the plan in 2015 – 2017.
There are a multitude of other poor defensive choices the Mets have made. This includes the Asdrubal Cabrera and Jose Reyes tandem at shortstop last year over Amed Rosario or even Matt Reynolds.
Now, with the Mets adding Bruce, the likely outfield alignment would place Michael Conforto in center field.
Last season, Conforto posted a -4 DRS in 328.2 innings. That’s dreadful, and it’s not likely to improve with Conforto spending an offseason rehabilitating a major shoulder injury.
If the outfield is Cespedes-Conforto-Bruce, how can the Mets possibly put up the front they need good defensive players as a justification why they’re keeping Lagares?
If that was the case, the Mets give Lagares another shot to prove he can play everyday, don’t hand an infield position to Cabrera, and they’d focus on adding good defenders like Todd Frazier this offseason.
The Mets aren’t. Instead, they’re going with the better hitters at all positions while ignoring the defensive ramifications. It’s what Sandy’s always done, and judging from the Bruce signing, it’s what he will always do.
So no, they’re not keeping Lagares to keep good defensive players. They’re keeping him because they can’t move him.
With Jay Bruce returning to the Mets, he is attempting to win a World Series during his second stint with the team. That is just a feat accomplished just once in Mets history. In fact, there are only 10 players who have been to the postseason in their second stint with the team. Can you name those players? Good luck!
Jim Gosger Lee Mazzilli Bobby Bonilla Josias Manzanillo Jeff Tam Kelly Stinnett Pedro Feliciano Roberto Hernandez Kelly Johnson Jon Niese
The free agent market has been stagnant, and to the surprise of many, the Mets made a splash signing Jay Bruce to a backloaded three year $39 million contract.
Whenever a team makes a move, it tells you something about the team. It tells you something about how the team views both its postseason chances and the composition of their roster.
The problem with Bruce is you don’t know exactly what his signing is telling you about the team.
Conforto
Prior to Bruce signing, Michael Conforto was penciled in as the 2018 right fielder. At least, that is the case when Conforto was to return.
While the Mets have been publicly bullish on his return, they readily admit he won’t be ready by Opening Day. Beyond that, we don’t know because there is no timetable.
And even when he returns, we don’t know if he will return to his All Star form.
Are we to read the Bruce signing as Conforto being out longer than anticipated and/or the Mets being uneasy about what Conforto will be when he returns?
Lagares
Last year, Juan Lagares returned to his best defensive center fielder in baseball form with him leading all MLB center fielders in UZR/150.
As if this wasn’t enough to get you at least intrigued about him returning to an everyday role, Lagares is working with the coach who completely changed the course of J.D. Martinez‘s career.
That coaches helped Martinez go from a .250/.272/.378 hitter in 2013 to a .315/.358/.553 hitter the following season. For a point of reference, Lagares hit .250/.296/.365 last year.
If Bruce stays in right, this would mean Conforto would go to center when he comes off the DL thereby forcing Lagares to the bench.
Are the Mets really willing to make Lagares a high paid defensive replacement with him making $6.5 million this year and $9 million the next? Is it possible the Mets aren’t interested in seeing whether Lagares could become at least an improved hitter thereby bringing him closer to the 5.5 win player they so eagerly extended prior to the 2015 season?
Dom
There’s no doubt Dominic Smith had a disappointing stint in the majors last year posting a -1.2 WAR in 49 games. After that stretch, the Mets let anyone who’d listen know they’ve soured on Smith. Even with them walking it back a bit, they still have been actively looking for a first baseman this offseason.
Here’s the thing – not only has Smith been getting in much better shape this offseason, but he’s also been a player who has gotten better after some early struggles at his new level.
Last year, Smith hit .324/.377/.498 in April in May. After that, he hit .336/.394/.537 until he was called up to the majors.
In Double-A in 2016, he hit .267/.317/.396 in April and May. After that, Smith hit .323/.397/.495.
What if Smith follows a similar path this season? Are you willing to bench him or demote him to Triple-A when he’s playing well?
Defense
One of the biggest issues with the 2017 Mets was their defense. They did not have a positive defender anywhere across the field. Things are going to be just as bad, if not worse, with this signing.
Likely, Bruce signing means an outfield of Yoenis Cespedes-Conforto-Bruce. Last year, Conforto had a -4 DRS in center in just 328.2 innings there. Based upon those numbers, why would the Mets actively look to put him in center not just this year, but over the next three years?
Also, why would you ask a player coming back from a significant shoulder injury to play a relatively unfamiliar position he has not had an opportunity to prepare to play this offseason?
This is asking for more poor defense from the Mets. That become all the more puzzling when we are currently playing in an era where batters focus on hitting the ball in the air.
Money
Initially, it was believed the Mets had around $30 million to spend this offseason. However, after the Anthony Swarzak signing and Sterling Equities getting involved in the Islanders Belmont arena, that number was reportedly lowered to just $10 million remaining to spend in free agency.
If we take a look at Bruce’s backloaded deal, you will notice he is slated to earn $10 million next year. Is this really an accident? If it isn’t does this mean the Mets just spent all of their money on a right fielder when they are already had one? Why would you do that with huge holes on this roster including second base?
Building A Complete Roster
It is quite surprising Bruce was the choice. Todd Frazier, Mike Moustakas, Howie Kendrick, Lorenzo Cain, and Addison Reed remain free agents. Each one of those players fills a real need on this roster. Bruce is a luxury item that based upon budget reports prevents another move.
Such a move would be Jason Kipnis, who Jon Heyman of Fan Rag Sports reports the Mets nixed a deal for him over money. Whether that was before or after signing Bruce is not clear. What is clear is the Mets still have limited resources, and they are now allocating them poorly.
Where to Go From Here
At the moment, the Mets are eventually going to be forced to figure out what to do with Lagares and Smith once Conforto is healthy. However, that is a little down the road. At the moment, the question is what do the Mets do to fill their other needs.
They just nixed Kipnis over $30.7 million over the next two years with a third year option. Are we really to believe Josh Harrison and his being owed $11.5 million with successive options is that much more palatable? If so, can we really believe the Mets will get him over teams like the Yankees who have a much deeper farm system?
Also, what are the Mets going to do to address the rest of the bullpen and their bench. Seeing where the finances are, it is not likely the Mets do much. This likely translates to a Jose Reyes reunion despite him being one of the worst regulars in all of baseball last year posting a -1.7 WAR.
And that’s the problem. Rather that looking to make significant improvements with their payroll constraints, Sandy Alderson and the Wilpons are going with a failed measure. Add power. Eschew defense. Go with guys you like personally. Hope it works out. Well, it didn’t work in 2017, and with a worse roster heading into next year, it’s not likely to work again in 2018.
So overall, the Bruce signing really doesn’t address any problems, it creates more issues, and it likely assures the Mets will not be competing for a spot in the postseason next year.
It is a slow going offseason, but it seems even slower for the Mets. With so many teams with more money than the Mets still interested in many of the same free agents, it is hard to believe the Mets will make significant additions before the end of the offseason. If they don’t, here is what the 2018 Mets Opening Day roster will look like:
C – Travis d’Arnaud
1B – Dominic Smith
2B – Wilmer Flores
3B – Asdrubal Cabrera
SS – Amed Rosario
LF – Yoenis Cespedes
CF – Juan Lagares
RF – Michael Conforto
Bench – Kevin Plawecki, Brandon Nimmo, T.J. Rivera, Matt Reynolds, Phillip Evans
Rotation – Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler
Bullpen – Jeurys Familia, Anthony Swarzak, AJ Ramos, Jerry Blevins, Hansel Robles, Paul Sewald, Seth Lugo
This should only highlight about how much work the Mets actually have to do this offseason.
Sure, we can buy the pitching staff as a whole as is because they have viable depth. In the rotation, Lugo could get transition back much like how he did in 2016. After that, they have Robert Gsellman, Chris Flexen, Corey Oswalt, and Mickey Jannis. And that is before the Mets go deeper with pitchers like P.J. Conlon. Suffice it to say, the Mets do have sufficient rotation depth.
Considering many of the aforementioned pitchers could go to the bullpen, the bullpen also has sufficient depth. And behind them, the Mets also have David Roseboom, Chase Bradford, and Josh Smoker.
However, that offense. You can’t sell anyone that is going to be alright. Mostly, that is because the Mets don’t believe themselves that it will be. And that is before you take into account the injury issues Conforto and Rivera are currently rehabbing from this offseason.
For example, the team has all but given up on Gavin Cecchini, who should be in a position to at least compete for a spot on the 25 man roster. He won’t. What’s scary is there is no real Major League ready talent behind him . . . at least no immediately as players like Luis Guillorme and David Thompson need at least some time in Triple-A. By the way, there’s no real outfield depth in this system.
Looking over this roster, you’d be hard pressed to believe the Mets will be better than the 70-92 team they were last season no matter how much they sell us Mickey Callaway as the solution to all that ails the Mets.
So, it really should not come as a surprise to no one the Mets have a lot of work to do, and it goes well beyond just adding one or two players. That applies just to the starting lineup. After that, they really need to build a Major League caliber bench.
Again, the good news is there are still many free agents available. However, it’s still hard to believe the Mets will be able to add the players they need to become a postseason contender.
If you look around the free agent landscape, you will see that most Major League teams have yet to make any significant moves. Even those who have, like the Cardinals, who have obtained Marcell Ozuna, or the Yankees, who obtained Giancarlo Stanton, are still looking to make additional moves to complete their 2018 rosters.
And there are still plenty of real difference makers on the free agent market. That goes for all positions. Really, you could build an All Star roster over the players still available:
- P Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta
- C Jonathan Lucroy
- 1B Eric Hosmer
- 2B Neil Walker
- 3B Todd Frazier
- SS J.J. Hardy
- LF J.D. Martinez
- CF Lorenzo Cain
- RF Jay Bruce
- Closer Greg Holland
With all of these players still available, we have begun to hear from different sources how Sandy Alderson has made yet another master stroke. He is successfully waiting out the market, and as a result, the Mets are bound to get a bargain in free agency. For proof, we need not look any further than how Alderson signed Yoenis Cespedes in the offseason after the 2015 pennant.
For those that remember, early in that offseason, the Mets had moved on from Cespedes instead signing Alejandro De Aza to take part in a center field platoon with Juan Lagares. The plan was to go with Curtis Granderson, Michael Cuddyer, and Michael Conforto in the outfield. From there, things changed rather dramatically.
First, Cuddyer unexpectedly retired. Perhaps more unexpected than that was no one wanting to give Cespedes a big contract after his terrific run after his getting traded to the Mets. Part of that was some questions marks that began with his time in Boston. Another issue was Cespedes being just one huge free agent in a loaded free agent class that included Chris Davis, Alex Gordon, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, and many more. The other Major League teams chose the other players.
This had left Cespedes as the last major free agent on the board. While many credited the Mets with sticking it out and getting Cespedes on what was effectively a one year deal, the truth of the matter the team was lucky. If the Nationals had not deferred much of the money in the 5 year roughly $100 million contract offer they made to Cespedes, it is likely Cespedes would have joined Daniel Murphy on the Nationals.
However, credit is due to the Alderson taking advantage of the situation and getting his man.
If we are being honest with ourselves, that was a bit of a miracle. It was not a plan that can be emulated. That goes double for this offseason with so many teams left looking to make moves this offseason. There are many teams with more money who are looking to fill the same exact holes the Mets are. The difference between those teams and the Mets is money.
By many accounts, the Mets only have roughly $10 million to spend this offseason. That is unless they are able to move a contract like Lagares’. For what it’s worth, if you are a Major League team looking for a center fielder, Cain, Jarrod Dyson, Austin Jackson, Carlos Gomez, and Jon Jay are still available. Why would you take on Lagares, when you can just sign one of these free agents?
So no, the Mets are not going to free up payroll. Ultimately, this does not mean the Mets have been patient this offseason. Instead, the team is being idle. The key difference between the two is that when you’re patient you’re waiting for something to happen whereas an idle team moves along the offseason hoping for something to happen.
When you have $10 million to spend, are desperately attempting to attach yourselves to a number of rumors to keep the fans happy, and need to add at least five more key players this offseason to be relevant in 2018, you are idle.
With the Mets hiring both Mickey Callaway and Dave Eiland coupled with the team possibly only adding Anthony Swarzak to the pitching staff this offseason, it appears much of the hope for the 2018 Mets are tied to the current Mets pitchers improving. Fortunately, the team has both the right coaching staff in place as well as a talented group of pitchers who underwhelmed last year. Here are five different pitchers who may take a step forward next season under Callaway’s and Eiland’s tutelage:
After his 2016 stint in the majors, many believed Gsellman would emerge as one of the front-runners for the Rookie of the Year Award. Instead, he had about as poor a 2017 season as you could imagine with him being ineffective, suffering an injury, and his being dismissive of Sandy Alderson’s critique of his performance.
Looking over his stats last season, none of his pitchers were really working. That should come as no surprise when opposing batters hit .280/.345/.462 off of him. Still, as we saw in 2016, this is a pitcher with talent, and he is now working with a coaching staff that helps get a pitcher maximize his talent.
While much has been discussed about Callaway’s focus on the two seamer, fact is he has also successfully worked with sinkers. As noted by Let’s Go Tribe, Callaway has gotten his sinker ball pitchers to focus less on pounding the sinker and more in mixing their pitches and throwing a more diverse fastball selection. From that, we have not only seen Corey Kluber emerge as a perennial Cy Young candidate, but we have also seen pitchers like Trevor Bauer and Carlos Correa maximize their talent.
A similar handling of Gsellman, who threw his fastball and sinker 63% of the time last year, could well yield similar results to those pitchers in Cleveland.
One thing that was clear from Lugo last year was he struggles the third time through the lineup. In his brief Major League career, batters have hit .299/.352/.425 during his third time through the lineup. In that sense, Lugo is not unique as we have seen that happen to other quality pitchers.
However, if utilized properly, Lugo could very well be a very good Major League pitcher. All that is needed is someone to be forward thinking in how he is handled.
One example of this is Kyle Hendricks. He historically struggled the third time through the lineup, so his manager Joe Maddon limited the times Hendricks did this, and the result was Hendricks finishing third in Cy Young voting in 2016.
Another avenue to pursue is to make Lugo a reliever. We have seen Eiland have success converting starters into relievers with his work with pitchers like Luke Hochevar and Wade Davis. Also, given Callaway’s influence on how the Indians utlizied Andrew Miller, Lugo could become a real weapon in that bullpen.
Robles is prone to stretches of both complete dominance and complete ineptitude. For example, from Opening Day to May 18th, Robles had made 18 appearances going 4-0 with a 1.42 ERA, 1.053 WHIP, and a 9.5 K/9. During that stretch, opposing batters hit just .169/.295/.277. After that, he had a three appearance stretch that saw him give up at least four earned in each appearances leading to his demotion to Triple-A where he continued to struggle.
One of the reasons why we see those stretches of dominance from Robles is his stuff. He throws a mid to high 90s fastball with a good mid 80s slider. What he needs is to learn how to become more consistent. That could be accomplished with a more defined role, conservative usage, and really, better coaching.
Smoker has great stuff. He combines a mid to high 90s fastball with a devastating split. It’s a large reason why even when things go wrong, the left-handed pitcher struck out 10.9 batters per nine at the major league level. Aside from the stuff and the good strikeout rate, there were many problems with Smoker.
Smoker had shoulder issues again, likely related to his being overused, and he struggled with left-handed batters, at least until September. Perhaps most alarming, and possibly a reason for his struggles, Smoker walked 5.6 batters per nine last year.
At this point in his career, Smoker needs someone who can help him better command his stuff. With Callaway being an exceptional teacher and proponent of the curveball, he could get Smoker to make that pitch a that could be a weapon against left-handed batters. If so, Smoker can get back to the point where he was entering the 2017 season – a hard throwing reliever with real upside.
Look, 2015 is a long way away, and 2013 is even further away than that. During the last season, we not only saw Harvey broken down physically (again), but we finally saw some cracks in his self confidence. This wasn’t the Dark Knight anymore. This was just plain old Matt Harvey. And we don’t know if Matt Harvey can be an effective Major League pitcher.
What we do know is that he was completely mishandled from the get-go last year. By Dan Warthen‘s own admission, Harvey was not going to be 100% until May. Despite that, Harvey was in the Opening Day rotation, and he pitched and pitched until he could pitch no more. His results were blamed on poor mechanics.
The truth was the muscles in Harvey’s pitching shoulder had atrophied, and he was suffering a stress reaction. Fact is, he wasn’t ready to go. Harvey may very well have pushed to pitch, but the Mets never did stand in the way to protect Matt from himself. Moreover, they never did fix the mechanical issues all parties purported him to have.
With Eiland, the Mets have a pitching coach whose bread and butter is mechanics. Both Callaway and Eiland pushed the Mets to keep Harvey rather than trade him because they believed in him. They believed in him because they see something in him that perhaps no one else sees anymore. With them in place, there are coaches who believe in his talent and know how to get the most out of it. Whether that happens remains to be seen.
Like many Mets fans, I was irritated about how last offseason was handled.
They brought back a team who was not good enough to win the Wild Card Game expecting them to both stay healthy and win a World Series.
As we know, it all fell apart. That’s what happens when Jacob deGrom and Jerry Blevins were the only two players to last the full season on the roster without hitting the Disabled List.
The Mets postseason chances ended in injuries culminating in a 70-92 record.
Even better, Sandy Alderson completely botched the fire sale. The Mets traded Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda, Curtis Granderson, Addison Reed, and Neil Walker for a group of Minor League right-handed relieves. Oh, and sweet, sweet salary relief.
The plan of action would’ve been acceptable had the team opted to reinvest that money in the team. Well, not only did the Mets opt not to reinvest that money, they decided to hold onto more of it.
That’s right. Despite a good core that includes Noah Syndergaard, Michael Conforto, and Amed Rosario, the Mets are refusing to spend what is needed to get this team to .500 let alone the postseason.
How do I respond to this?
Yup, I got a knit Mets hat for my newborn son. Apparently, despite everything, I want him to be a Mets fan just like my entire family.
I know why. It’s because if the shared experiences. I want to be able to enjoy the rare times the Mets are relevant with my sons.
I want to go to games with them and tell them I got to see players like Mike Piazza, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran. I want to celebrate the Mets next World Series title with them.
Hell, I’d love to do that with my Dad as well. However, with the way this team is being operated from a financial and personnel standpoint, it seems like that’s becoming less and less of a possibility.
Sadly, the Wilpons don’t care about my story or other fans stories. They don’t have to because they’re making money anyway. They don’t have to because fans like me keep coming back for more, and even worse, we begin the process of indoctrinating our children at a young age.
So yes, I’m to blame why the Wilpons get away with operating the Mets this way. However, only the Wilpons themselves are to blame for choosing to operate the team this way.
If you’ve been paying attention, the Mets seem to be interested in everyone this offseason. If you take those players they’re interested in, you’d have an amazing roster:
1B Todd Frazier
2B Neil Walker
SS Amed Rosario
CF Lorenzo Cain
Bench Kevin Plawecki, Asdrubal Cabrera, Wilmer Flores, Juan Lagares, Brandon Nimmo
Rotation: Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler
Bullpen: Jeurys Familia, Anthony Swarzak, AJ Ramos, Jerry Blevins, Hansel Robles, Seth Lugo, Paul Sewald
Sure, we are all disappointed the Mets lost out on that bidding war for Carlos Santana and Bryan Shaw, but this is still a terrific roster that required the Mets to open up their pockets to build.
Throw in Mickey Callaway and Dave Eiland, and you can believe in that pitching staff. And as we saw in 2015, if the pitching is up to snuff, this team can go to the World Series.
Wait, you don’t believe any of this is going to happen?
If you think the Mets were inactive last year, well, you were right. In total, the Mets only signed four players to major league deals with just two of those players coming from outside the organization. Can you name all four players the Mets signed to a major league deal in all of 2017? Good luck!
One of the more polarizing free agents this offseason is Eric Hosmer. The main reason why is he just looks like a better player than he actually is.
For that, look no further than his Gold Gloves. In four of the last five seasons, he has taken home a Gold Glove despite posting a cumulative -6 DRS over that stretch with his posting a -6 and -7 DRS over the last two seasons.
Offensively, over the last three years, he has averaged 159 G, .294/.359/.463, 29 2B, 23 HR, 97 RBI. Pretty good looking numbers, but those numbers translate to a 119 OPS+, 120 wRC+.
For this some teams, including the Royals and possibly the Padres, are willing to pay him over $20 million a year for seven years. That’s a gross overpay for a player who is averaging a 2.9 bWAR and 2.5 fWAR during the prime of his career.
Now, there are some plausible reasons why you could say he’s more than the numbers say he is. By all accounts, he’s a leader and a tremendous clubhouse presence. The man seemingly does everything it takes to win.
My personal favorite is when his GM Dayton Moore said, “”If you told Eric Hosmer, ‘We need you to hit 40 home runs,’ he would be able to hit 40 home runs. He’s that type of athlete.” (WEEI).
Basically, all you need to do is to tell Hosmer to do something, and he’ll do it. Whatever it takes to win, except hitting 40 homers because he doesn’t need to do that to win. What he will do is make the mad dash home Alex Gordon didn’t the prior year and scoring a run as Lucas Duda‘s throw went nowhere near home.
That brings us to the Mets.
There’s no doubt the Mets could very well use a player like Hosmer in the clubhouse. There’s value in adding a winner, and there’s more value in adding a headsmart player on a young team.
The first problem with considering Hosmer, which the Mets purportedly aren’t, is Dominic Smith.
The young first baseman was a well regarded prospect who struggled in his debut. This led the Mets to tell everyone who will listen they’ve soured on Smith. They soured on him so much they began the offseason listing first base as a need.
It was more than a short-term consideration. The team did inquire on Carlos Santana as the Mets viewed him as a “difference maker.”
Apparently, he wasn’t enough of a difference maker to garner $20 million a year. Although, that may have more to do with the Mets not having $20 million to spend this offseason.
Therein lies the problem. We’ll never truly know how much of an impact a player like Hosmer would have on the Mets. We don’t get to see the blending of new and old school and how they work together to build a winner.
In fact, the way the Mets offseason is transpiring, you’d be hard pressed to argue this team is really looking to build a winner for 2018 or beyond.
That leaves Mets fans watching Hosmer dashing for a chance to win again while we all look on in horror.