With Johan Santana disappointingly getting dropped off the Hall of Fame ballot after failing to receive five percent of the vote, he will not join Tom Seaver, Mike Piazza, and other former Mets who have entered the Hall of Fame. He will also not join five other Hall of Famers who finished their careers as a member of the New York Mets.
Can you name those five Hall of Famers? Good luck!
With Trevor Hoffman being inducted into the Hall of Fame, he now becomes just the sixth reliever ever inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Considering Hoyt Wilhelm, Rich Gossage, Bruce Sutter, and Rollie Fingers were relievers of a far different mold, and Dennis Eckersley had a career as a starting pitcher before becoming a one inning closer, Hoffman becomes a unique Hall of Famer in that he is now the first ever pure closer to be inducted into the Hall of Fame.
With him being inducted, the question needs to be asked why it was him and not one of the other closers who proceeded him.
The first answer that will probably be injected as a reason is the fact Hoffman accumulated 601 saves. At the time of his retirement in 2010, it was the record for most saves by a relief pitcher. In reality, he had the record beginning in 2006. The question that naturally follows from this is why is this now relevant?
It would seem odd to put 600 saves into a category with 3,000 hits, 500 homers, or 300 wins as those marks evolved over time. The modern one inning reliever is something that arguably has only been around since the 1980s with Tony La Russa‘s use of Eckersley leading the charge. Yes, at the time of his retirement, he had the most all-time, and he was 123 ahead of the highest retired closer.
That closer was Lee Smith. What is interesting about Smith was he battled Jeff Reardon late in Reardon’s career for the most saves of all-time. The year after Reardon retired, Smith passed him and the lapped the field. At the time Smith retired in 1997, he had the all-time record with 478 saves, and he would hold the record for most saves in baseball history for 10 years. Like Reardon, Hoffman would lose the title the year after he retired.
Speaking of Lee Smith, he is an interesting parallel for Hoffman, especially with both pitchers pitching 18 years and making seven All Star teams.
In Smith’s career, he was 71-92 with a 3.03 ERA, 478 saves, 1,251 strikeouts, 1.256 WHIP, and an 8.7 K/9. He led the league in saves four times, led the league in games finished three times, and won three Rolaids Relief Awards. From an advanced metrics standpoint, he had a 132 ERA+, 29.6 WAR, 21.1 WAR7, and a 25.4 JAWS.
In Hoffman’s career, he was 61-75 with a 2.87 ERA, 601 saves, 1,133 strikeouts, 1.058 WHIP, and a 9.4 K/9. He led the league twice in saves, never led the league in games finished, and won two Rolaids Relief Awards. From an advanced metrics standpoint, he had a 141 ERA+, 28.4 WAR, 19.6 WAR7, and a 24.0 JAWS.
In some areas, Smith is better, including WAR, WAR7, JAWS, strikeouts, and relief awards. In others like ERA, ERA+, WHIP, and K/9, Hoffman is better. Generally speaking, Hoffman and Smith are about equally as valuable as one another. We only get to a true separator between the two relievers when we discuss saves.
Hoffman blows Smith out of the water there, but that’s not too dissimilar how Smith blew other contemporaries out of the water during his playing days. He was 1-2 with Reardon much like Hoffman was with Mariano Rivera.
It would seem from a pure value standpoint, if Hoffman is inducted, then so should Smith. However, we really know the end game was the amount of saves.
That’s why we won’t see Billy Wagner follow suit despite his having a much better ERA+ (187), more strikeouts (1,196), a higher K/9 (11.9), WAR7 (19.9), and having made the same JAWS and making the same number of All Star teams.
It’s also why we didn’t see John Franco get inducted into the Hall of Fame. Sure, we can mock Franco all you like, but he has had the record for most saves by a left-handed pitcher since 1994, which is a record that has lasted for 23 years and does not appear of being eclipsed any time soon.
It should also be noted Franco led the league in saves three times, games finished two times, made four All Star teams, and won two Rolaids Relief awards. This means Franco led the league in saves and games finished more times than Hoffman, and he won just as many relief awards. His WAR (24.2), WAR7 (15.7), and JAWS (19.9) do trail Hoffman, but then again, we’ve learned this isn’t really about value.
It’s about total saves with the new bench mark apparently being 600 saves. It is good that it’s a high bench mark, but at the end of the day, it seems odd this isn’t about greatness, value, or dominance. Rather, it’s about an arbitrary number decided upon because Hoffman just felt like a Hall of Famer.
Last year, when contemplating who should be inducted into the Hall of Fame, I ultimately determined Edgar Martinez fell short. Ultimately, the crux of the argument was due to the scarcity of DHs even available for Hall of Fame voting, it was hard to create a standard. As a result, Frank Thomas, the only player in the Hall of Fame who spent more time at DH than in the field became the standard upon his election. As Edgar was not the DH Thomas was, he should fall short of election.
Since that time, the IBWAA had decided to induct Edgar in what amounts to their own straw poll, and we have seen a groundswell of support of voters to induct him into the Hall of Fame. Whether he does in fact get elected today remains to be seen, but at a minimum, it led to rethink how to approach Edgar’s Hall of Fame candidacy.
Ultimately, I decided that since a DH is just a hitter, Edgar should be looked upon as a hitter only first. After collecting all that information, we can then make the determination about whether he was a good enough hitter to be in the Hall of Fame based upon his hitting alone.
Magic Numbers
The Steroids Era has blurred this somewhat, but we do know that there are certain magic numbers that get you into the Hall of Fame. On the offensive side, those numbers are 3,000 hits and 500 homers. With respect to both, Edgar not only falls short, but he falls well short. In fact, he “only” had 2,247 hits and 309 homers.
Considering he averaged just 125 hits a year and 17 homers a year, he was going to need another six years to get to 3,000 hits and 11 years to get to 500 homers. So from the magic number standpoint, we know Edgar falls well short.
Lesser Known Magic Numbers
To be fair to Edgar, he was not a home run hitter, and you do not have to be a home run hitter to be a truly great offensive player. To that end, further examination is due to determine if he has the numbers in other categories that are worthy of Hall of Fame induction. For the sake of brevity in this section, the bars set are for all players eligible for the Hall of Fame who have not been implicated by PEDs.
Runs – Putting Johnny Damonaside for the moment as he is on the ballot, every player with more runs scored than Cal Ripken, Jr.‘s 1,647 runs scored has been inducted. Edgar only has 1,219 runs scored.
Doubles– Again Ripken is the bottom line standard with his having hit 603 doubles. Edgar falls short of this mark with his having hit 514 doubles.
RBI– Every player with more RBI than Ernie Banks‘ 1,636 RBI is in the Hall of Fame. What’s interesting is Harold Baines, a career DH himself, was next on the all-time RBI list with 1,628. Edgar finished his career with 1,261 RBI.
Walks – Walks are not as forgiving a category as the others as the Hall of Fame voters have not really rewarded that as a skill, at least not to the extent of the balls in play categories. Thomas and his 1,667 walks is the floor, and Edgar again falls well short with 1,283 walks in his career.
BA -Like Walks, batting average is a bit unforgiving with Babe Ruth and his .342 setting the low water mark. Edgar again is well short with a .312 batting average.
OBP – This is where Edgar’s best case is. Everyone with a higher OBP than Dan Brouthers and his .423 OBP are in the Hall of Fame. However, if you remove Max Bishop, who played from 1924-1935 from the equation, that number drops to Stan Musial and his .417 OBP. With Edgar having a .418 OBP, he meets the criteria of this adjusted standard.
SLG – For this one, some allowances need to be made as Larry Walker, Jim Thome, and Vladimir Guerrero remain on the ballot. Another factor is Albert Belle and his .565 SLG is an outlier not being good enough for induction is an outlier. Otherwise, the bar would be Rogers Hornsby and his .577 SLG. Making those allowances, the new mark is Ralph Kiner and his .547 SLG. Edgar again falls short with a .515 SLG.
Looking at these numbers, Edgar misses the bottom line standard on all of them. In reality, he misses the mark by a big margin for most of them. If we tweak the numbers, his OBP is the only one that matches. It’s certainly impressive, but for a player whose sole job was to go out there and hit, it is really difficult to argue that one truly elite Hall of Fame level skill is enough to merit induction.
Advanced Statistics
As time passes by, we get smarter, and we learn new and better ways to evaluate hitters other than just their traditional back of the baseball card stats. As we know, it is easier to hit in some parks than others, and as a result, we need statistics that adjust accordingly. For a number of factors, including their goal of synthesizing a number of park and league neutral factors to derive an overall hitter value, I decided to use OPS+ and wRC+ for an advanced statistical analysis.
OPS+ If you look at the players eligible for the Hall of Fame and not tainted by steroids, Ty Cobb and his 168 OPS+ was the lowest “magic number” mark. You could even push it down to 163 as Jimmie Foxx had that mark, but it should be noted he is tied with Pete Browning, who was not inducted into the Hall of Fame. Edgar falls short of this mark again with his 147 OPS+.
Now, if we were to focus solely on modern players and just focused on those players who played over the last 50 years, the OPS+ threshold doesn’t really move as Dick Allen with his 156 mark was not inducted into the Hall of Fame. However, Willie Mays and Thomas were. So, if we were to treat Allen like an exception, that mark would move to Willie McCovey and Mike Schmidt, whose career OPS+ is 147, which as we know is Edgar’s career mark.
If we are making a case here for Edgar, which is what we are searching to do, it should be noted by this metric alone, he is tied for 42nd on the list.
wRC+Again, Dick Allen is the major impediment here as his 155 wRC+ was not sufficient for Hall of Fame induction. That would make Tris Speaker and his 157 wRC+ the standard bearer. Edgar and his 147 wRC+ falls well short of that mark.
If we were to make the same allowances that were made for the OPS+ mark, the threshold would move to the 145 wRC+ posed by McCovey, Willie Stargell, and the presumed to be inducted Thome. Edgard has a higher mark than that.
Another factor in Edgar’s favor here is his 147 wRC+ ranks 33rd best in the history of baseball.
WAR
If we are going to discuss advanced metrics, we have to discuss WAR. In reality, the WAR required for Hall of Fame induction is a moving target. The high water mark is the 73.9 average for starting pitchers and the 40.6 average for relievers. Putting pitching aside, the high water mark is the 73.2 WAR average for right fielders and the 53.4 average WAR for catchers serving as the low water mark.
Certainly, Edgar falls within all of those parameters with a 68.3 career WAR. In fact, that mark puts him tied for 112th all time. That’s ahead of first ballot inductees like Ivan Rodriguez(68.4) and Ernie Banks (67.4). However, it also puts Edgar behind players never inducted into the Hall of Fame like Lou Whitaker (74.9) and Bobby Grich, both of whom were five percented in their first year of the ballot and were not inducted in the most recent Veteran’s Committee vote.
Overall, Edgar is 112th, which puts him well below some Hall of Famers, but it does put him ahead of many others. The same goes for people not in the Hall of Fame.
Revisiting The Frank Thomas Argument
As of today, the DH position has only been in existence for 44 years thereby making it the newest position in all of baseball. In the brief history of the DH, we have seen it used in a variety of ways. It has been used as a spot for an aging veteran, and we have seen it used for a rotating spot to give players a rest. Of course, with players like Edgar, we have seen it go to good hitters.
As of this moment, there is only one player in the Hall of Fame who spent more time at DH than in the field. That player was Frank Thomas. In his career, Thomas hit .301/.419/.555 with 495 doubles, 521 homers, and 1,704 RBI. He had a 73.7 WAR, 45.2 WAR7, and a 59.5 JAWS. If we are looking to create a standard to induct a DH, he’s it.
Edgar falls short having a lower OBP and SLG with significantly fewer homers and RBI. His 68.3/.43.6/56.0 all fall well short of the numbers Thomas put up.
Other Considerations
If we are going to look at Edgar just among hitters, we also need to take other things into consideration. Despite being just a DH, which is effectively a part-time player, Edgar only played over 150 games in just three seasons. To be fair, we should make that four with him leading the league in games played in the shortened 1995 season. Still, he was a DH that could not stay on the field.
Despite the current narrative that Edgar is the best DH ever, he really wasn’t as Frank Thomas was. Moreover, Edgar wasn’t recognized as such in his playing days. During his career, Edgar only won five Silver Sluggers and made just seven All Star teams in 18 years. I know his name is on the American League award for DHs, but that doesn’t mean he was the best DH ever or even of his era.
One other argument I’ve seen is Edgar not playing the field helped his team. Sure, his being utilized the best possible way was a benefit to the Mariners. However, it’s hard to argue that is was also beneficial the Mariners had players like Mike Blowers, Russ Davis, David Bell, Jeff Cirillo, and Scott Spiezio at third base.
Summation
From this analysis, it is pretty clear that if you want to make a case for Edgar Martinez as a Hall of Famer, you certainly can. He was certainly a very good hitter in his career, and based upon what metric you chose to use, he was among the best hitters in any particular category. However, the question ultimately is whether he was a good enough hitter that we can overlook his never really playing in the field.
For me, the answer is no.
Right now, the standard for a DH is Frank Thomas, and Edgar falls well short of that. He also did not put up anywhere near 3,000 hits or 500 homers. You literally have to move the floors for any other statistical category for Edgar to be above the proverbial red line. Worse yet, he was a DH that was not able to play over 150 games a season. That’s a problem when you’re looking to induct a one-dimensional player.
No, it won’t be a travesty when and if Edgar is elected into the Hall of Fame. However, it will ultimately be the wrong decision.
About a week ago, I wrote an article detailing the efforts Jeff Wilpon undertook to avoid the media. Seeing his quotes from the luncheon with Mets beat writers, we better understand why Jeff Wilpon undertakes such efforts.
In that press conference, he conveyed conflicting messages, threw his captain under the bus, and generally speaking left Mets fans angrier at the team than they originally had been.
The sad part is it didn’t have to be that way. Jeff Wilpon must’ve known he was going to speak at this luncheon, and therefore had sufficient time to better choose his words. Here’s what he should have said:
On Mets Fans
I understand the frustration because I’m frustrated too. I can tell you no one in this organization saw a 92 loss season coming. Because of that, we made changes. We brought in Mickey Callawayto be the manager and Dave Eiland to be the pitching coach.
More importantly, with all the injuries we had, we have gone out and brought in a new training staff. And remember, when healthy, this is a postseason team.
We’re going to have a full season of Noah Syndergaardand Yoenis Cespedes. We brought back Jay Bruce and signed Anthony Swarzak. And we’re still not done this offseason.
I think when Mets fans see the team we bring to Spring Training, they’ll be as excited for the 2018 season as I am.
On the Budget
There has been much written and said about the payroll. I understand where people are coming from, but there are things everyone needs to take into account.
Like any other rebuilding team, we had a lower payroll. As we knew were getting closer to contention, we went out and began getting players like Curtis Granderson, who helped us become contenders.
As our window opened, we began to increase payroll. Every year since 2014, we have increased payroll. In 2015 and 2016, when we had a chance of going to the postseason, we expanded payroll by making in-season trades for players like Cespedes and Bruce.
Also, we have gone the extra mile when necessary. On two separate occasions, we made Cespedes the highest salaried outfielder in baseball. We brought back Jerry Blevinslast year, and we brought back Bruce this year. We always have been willing to go the extra mile when the opportunity presents itself. If it presents itself again, we’re going to do it.
At the end of the day, I can assure fans that we will have a payroll that will help us to compete for a World Series title next year.
On the Correlation between Spending and Winning
I think we have all learned the lesson that spending does not automatically correlate to wins. There have been many years where we have had a top payroll, and we didn’t even finish over .500.
Personally, I believe winning is more about having the right decision makers in place. The Mets have that with Sandy Alderson. Under his direction, we went to a World Series in 2015, and we returned to the postseason the following year.
In 2017, which was the highest payroll in team history, we didn’t make the postseason. I believe we were snake bit with all the injuries. It happens. We just have to learn and grow from it; not throw money at the problem.
On the Offseason
So far, we have strengthened the bullpen with Swarzak. We have improved the outfield with Bruce, who was great for us last year. Overall, we have spent more money on free agents than any other team this offseason.
And I can unequivocally say we are not done looking for ways to improve this team.
On David Wright
People may not want to hear this, but so long as David Wrightwants to play baseball, we are going to keep the door open for him.
Now, there are certain allowances that need to be made. If Wright can play, that’s $20 million in our payroll. And yes, that means we have to consider his salary both when setting the budget and constructing our roster.
Wright is one of the greatest players to ever wear a Mets uniform. He has earned the right to say when he’s done. I’m never going to stand in his way because one of my greatest joys as an owner has been watching his career.
More than that I believe in him, and I’m rooting for him as all Mets fans should. He’s an important part of our history, and God willing, an important part of our future.
Summary
Now, I’m not saying all Mets fans should like these answers. Personally speaking, I wouldn’t.
With that said, they would at least convey a sense of purpose, direction, and more than anything hope. Instead, we got from Jeff Wilpon a moving target on the budget with him putting partial blame on a hurt David Wright who is fighting for his career. Overall, Jeff Wilpon really confirmed every Mets fans worst assumptions.
Ownership won’t invest what it needs to invest this team in order to win. More than that they confirmed for many this is a team that is rudderless so long as the Wilpons are in charge. Worse than that, they have no issue throwing an injured player in front of a bus.
Finally, for the first time since 2014, Jeff Wilpon answered questions about the Mets payroll. Of course, it was typical mixed messages and partial truths. Rather than putting it in my own words, I’m going to use the tweets from reporters:
Jeff Wilpon says there's a chance payroll goes up if there is a way to significantly improve the team. Says increasing payroll doesn't necessarily translate into wins.
— Laura Albanese (@AlbaneseLaura) January 23, 2018
Wilpon says the Mets payroll could conceivably match last year's or it could be "$10 million less."
— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) January 23, 2018
Right off the bat, we have at least a perceived contradiction. Jeff Wilpon’s statement the payroll will go up if there’s an opportunity does not jive with matching or reducing last year’s payroll by about $10 million. To give him the benefit of the doubt, let’s assume he means he could increase payroll from it’s current point.
According to Spotrac, the Mets payroll currently sits at $128.9 million for the 25 man roster and $130.7 million total. Last year, the Mets payroll was $154.8 million. This means the Mets have somewhere between $13 to $23 million left to spend this offseason.
There is where it needs to be mentioned the Mets rejected trades for both Jason Kipnis and Josh Harrison.
According to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag Sports, the trade for Kipnis was rejected by “higher ups.” In fact, Heyman said, the deal was “killed by someone at the top, very likely over money.” Over the next two years, Kipnis is due $28.2 million over the next two years with a $2.5 million buyout if the Mets do not pick up the $16.5 million 2020 team option.
With respect to Harrison, Mike Puma of the New York Post reported the Pirates ask of Brandon Nimmo was too high considering Harrison’s contract. While we can debate the merits of trading Nimmo for Harrison, the contract balk is confounding with Harrison due $10.25 million next year with succeeding team options of $10.5 million and $11.5 million.
And for what it’s worth, Kipnis and Harrison do meet Jeff’s “Significantly Improve” Test as the Mets current options are Wilmer Flores, who has never been given a real opportunity to play second due to his poor glove, or re-signing Jose Reyes, who had a -0.6 WAR last year.
For a minute, let’s revisit another topic Jeff Wilpon raised when he said increasing payroll doesn’t necessarily translate to wins. Now, on the surface, that may appear to be true. Certainly, if you go out and spend $20 million on Jose Reyes, it is not going to make your team better. Also, for what it’s worth, for a team that desparately needs a second baseman and could also use a third baseman, center fielder, and a couple of arms, Jay Bruce doesn’t necessarily translate to wins either.
Sarcasm aside, let’s take Jeff Wilpon at his earlier word that he will spend if the move significantly improves the Mets. Let’s also focus on those players that would translate to wins instead of harping on a player like Jonathan Lucroy, who is really more a name than an All Star at this point in his career.
With the free agent market where it is, the Mets could obtain Todd Frazier, who is a significant upgrade at third over Asdrubal Cabrera. Moving Cabrera to second would at least solve the position with a credible Major League hitter.
In center field, Lorenzo Cain is still available, and his market is dwindling. This was a 5.3 WAR player last year, and as we all know, is a World Series champion. Considering center field is now manned by Juan Lagares, who is as brilliant defensively as he is poor at the plate and keeping healthy, Cain would be a significant upgrade that would translate to wins.
Same goes for a reliever like Greg Holland, who was an All Star in Colorado of all places last year. Really, Holland was terrific as a closer up until he likely tired toward the end of the year. Wouldn’t he be a significant upgrade that translates to wins, especially when you combine him with Jeurys Familia, Anthony Swarzak, AJ Ramos, and Jerry Blevins?
The answer to all of the above is they will significantly improve the team and would likely lead to wins. The same could be said for Kipnis and Harrison, two players the Mets balked at over money. If the Mets are balking over $10-13 million at the biggest area of need this offseason, what would lead any of us to believe the Mets will spend that amount on other players?
Oh, and by the way, Jeff Wilpon essentially ruled out the team signing any combination of those players with his announced payroll restrictions.
And of course, if all of Jeff Wilpon’s statements didn’t see contradictory or disingenuous enough, he also made this statement:
Wilpon: "There is no concrete line to go up, there is no concrete line to go down or stay same. It’s somewhat in flux to have conversations with Sandy and the rest of the baseball department to determine what the best course of action might be.”
— Matt Ehalt (@MattEhalt) January 23, 2018
However, despite all of that, let’s just believe for one second, you still think the Mets are going to go out there and significantly improve this team. There’s still plenty of top tier free agents available, and there are deals to be had. Well, you’re dreams and assumptions should die with this statement on David Wright:
Among the factors Jeff Wilpon cited in counting David Wright's insurance covered salary as part of the payroll is the cost of the policy, "which is not cheap."
— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) January 23, 2018
That’s right. At a time when the Mets are giving mixed messages about payroll parameters, they’re complaining about the cost of an insurance policy that saves them roughly $20 million per season.
Really, everything Jeff Wilpon said proves out two things. First, the team really believes that spending to acquire better players does not necessarily translate to wins. Second, and more important, he thinks Mets fans are dumb.
Why else would he try to have us believe acquiring better players doesn’t lead to wins or publicly bemoan the cost of Wright’s insurance policy?
With the Hall of Fame results to be released tomorrow, this is my official IBWAA Hall of Fame ballot. Unlike the BBWAA, the IBWAA has a 15 player limit, and the IBWAA will not continue voting on a player after they have reached the 75% threshold. That remains true even if the player remains on the BBWAA ballot. This year that applies to Vladimir Guerrero (who I voted for last year and would’ve again this year) and Edgar Martinez.
CF Andruw Jones
Stats: 17 seasons, .254/.337/.486, 1933 H, 383 2B, 36 3B, 434 HR, 1289 RBI
Advanced: 62.8 WAR, 46.4 WAR7, 54.6 JAWS
Awards: 5x All Star, 10x Gold Glove , Silver Slugger
With the average Hall of Fame center fielder having a 71.2 WAR/44.6 WAR7/57.9 JAWS, the one thing that stands out to you is Jones had about as good a seven year stretch of baseball than any center fielder in the history of the game. Really, it was a tremendous nine year stretch of his career where he completely dominated.
From 1998 – 2006, Jones average season was .270/.347/.513 with 35 homers and 104 RBI. In addition to being a middle of the lineup hitter during this stretch, he won nine consecutive Gold Gloves. It goes a long way towards explaining how he put up 54.5 WAR during that stretch. There are few center fielders who have dominated the sport on both sides of the ball for as long as a stretch as this.
There are some other finer points to consider with Jones. Every Hall of Fame eligible center fielder who has hit at least 400 homers is in the Hall of Fame. Every Hall of Fame eligible outfielder that has won at least 10 Gold Gloves has been elected to the Hall of Fame. With Jones joining Willie Mays and Ken Griffey, Jr. as the only center fielders to hit over 400 homers and win 10+ Gold Gloves, he should also join them in the Hall of Fame.
Stats: 19 years, .303/.401/.529, 2726 H, 549 2B, 38 3B, 468 HR, 1623 RBI
Advanced: 85.0 WAR, 46.6 WAR7, 65.8 JAWS
Awards: 1999 MVP, 2008 Batting Title, 8x All Star, 2x Silver Slugger
When it come to Chipper, the question isn’t whether he’s a Hall of Famer, but rather how high should he rank on the list of all time third baseman. With the exception of triples and stolen bases, he is in the top 10 in every offensive category at the position with him being ranked second in runs and RBI and third in homers. No matter what statistic or measurement you look at, Jones is going to be a first ballot Hall of Famer.
Stats: 17 years, .290/.356/.500, 2461 H, 560 2B, 47 3B, 377 HR, 1518 RBI
Advanced: 55.2 WAR, 35.6 WAR7, 45.4 JAWS
Awards: 2000 MVP, 5x All Star, 4x Silver Slugger
When looking at the newer parameters of WAR, WAR7, and JAWS, Kent falls well short of meeting Hall of Fame induction standards as the average Hall of Fame second baseman has posted a 69.4/44.5/56.9. Really, Kent only comes close on the JAWS, but it’s not really that close. Even with him falling short there, he still deserves induction into the Hall of Fame.
Looking at Kent’s career, you can make the argument this side of Rogers Hornsby, he is the best offensive second baseman in Major League history. Certainly, you can make the case he’s the top slugger with him being the all-time leader in homers for a second baseman and second all-time in slugging. In addition to that, he’s fourth all-time in doubles and third highest in RBI.
Every Hall of Fame eligible second baseman who has at least 445 doubles is in the Hall of Fame. Every Hall of Fame eligible second baseman with at least 252 homers is in the Hall of Fame. Every Hall of Fame eligible second baseman with at least 1200 RBI is in the Hall of Fame. Every Hall of Fame eligible second baseman who has slugged at least .470 is in the Hall of Fame. Well, that’s true for everyone except Kent, who is still awaiting induction.
One last note on Kent. He is just one of 10 second baseman to ever win the award. With the exception of Dustin Pedroia, who is still active, Kent is the only one of these players not in the Hall of Fame. That should change as Kent certainly has merited induction.
Stats: 10 years, .282/.360/.462, 1253 H, 249 2B, 12 3B, 175 HR, 760 RBI
Advanced: 21.3 WAR, 21.3 WAR7, 21.3 JAWS
Awards: 2x All Star, 2009 World Series MVP
A more detailed analysis of Matsui’s Hall of Fame case was previously published. To put it succinctly here, as a professional, Matsui hit .293/.387/.521 hitter with 2,655 hits, 496 doubles, 508 homers, and 1,654 RBI. If that all happened in the United States, he would be a no-doubt Hall of Famer. However, due to the collusion and gentleman’s agreements between MLB and NPB, Mastui was never going to get the chance to spend his entire career in the MLB. He should not be penalized for that.
Stats: 19 years, .284/.377/.509, 441 2B, 24 3B, 493 HR, 1550 RBI
Advanced: 52.4 WAR, 35.8 WAR7, 44.1 JAWS
Awards: 5x All Star, 1994 All Star Game MVP, 3x Silver Slugger
If McGriff only hit seven more home runs in his career, we would likely not be having this conversation because before the Steroid Era, hitting 500 homers was an automatic ticket into the Hall of Fame. Perhaps knowing this, McGriff held on until he was 40 to try to get those homers. It is a testament to him he was a productive hitter before his age 40 season.
Looking at all the numbers, it is fair to say McGriff has fallen short of 500 homers because it is assumed he was a clean player in another wise dirty Steroid Era in baseball. He fell short because the players struck in 1994, which was when he was in his prime.
But looking at his advanced numbers, McGriff really falls short because of his defense. That seems odd at a time when voters are pushing to elect Edgar Martinezto the Hall of Fame. But that’s a debate for another day. What is up for debate is his -18.1 dWAR and how reliable the defense metrics are, especially at first base, and whether those numbers can reliably be used to keep someone out of the Hall of Fame. With the advent of DRS and UZR, it could be well argued dWAR is not reliable enough.
There’s some other considerations at play. With the exception of Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro, both of whom have taken PEDs, every Hall of Fame eligible first baseman with at least 490 homers is in the Hall of Fame. The same goes for first baseman with at least 1,520 RBI. Also, with the exception of players who are known to have used PEDs, every eligible first basman with at least 1,300 walks is in the Hall of Fame.
In addition to the regular season numbers, it should be noted McGriff was at his best when the stakes were at their highest. For proof of that look no further than the 1993 season when he helped the Braves overcome a nine game deficit in the NL West.
But it’s more than the tangential evidence there. As previously noted, McGriff bettered his career numbers with RISP, RISP with two outs, and high leverage situations. Combine that with McGriff being an excellent hitter in the postseason (.303/.385/.532) with him putting up extraordinary World Series numbers (.279/.385/.605), and there is more than enough to make up for the fact McGriff never got those last seven homers . . . that is unless you want to count his 10 postseason homers.
Stats: 270-153, 3.68 ERA, 2813 K, 1.192 WHIP
Advanced: 83.0 WAR, 44.5 WAR 7, 63.8 JAWS
Awards: 5x All Star, 7x Gold Glove
Given his being healthy throughout his entire career, and his coming off his only 20 win season, it does make you wonder why Mussina didn’t stick around long enough to get to 300 wins. Arguably, he was 2 – 3 years away, and it would have only taken him until his age 41 season to get there. Unfortunately, he didn’t stick around, so we have to have a more nuanced debate with his not reaching a magic number.
Now, the thing that really sticks out with Mussina is his career 3.68 ERA. If he was indeed inducted, that ERA would be the third worst ERA by a starting pitcher with only Red Ruffing and Jack Morris. Ruffing was only elected in a special runoff election after his time on the ballot expired, and Morris was inducted by the Veteran’s Committee.
However, lost in that ERA is the circumstances surrounding it. Mussina not only pitched in the Steroids Era, but he also pitched the majority of his career in a hitter’s park like Camden Yards. That’s where Mussina’s 123 ERA+ comes into account. That mark matches Juan Marichal and puts him just ahead of Hall of Famers Eddie Plank, Bob Feller, and Don Drysdale.
There are some more considerations as well. Aside from Roger Clemens and his complicated case, Mussina and Mickey Lolich are the only eligible pitcher with at least 2800 strikeouts not in the Hall of Fame. Mussina and Tommy John are the only pitchers with 270 wins and over 2,000 strikeouts not in the Hall of Fame. Mussina is the only pitcher with 270 wins and at least 2,300 strikeouts not in the Hall of Fame.
Combining that with his having a higher WAR, WAR7, and JAWS than the average Hall of Fame pitcher (73.9/50.3/62.1), and Mussina is well worthy of induction.
Stats: 17 years, .281/.364/.490, 2077 H, 517 2B, 43 3B, 316 HR, 1287 RBI
Advanced: 70.0 WAR, 43.5 WAR7, 56.8 JAWS
Awards: 1997 Rookie of the Year, 7x All Star, 8x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
If we were basing it just off the WAR, WAR7, and JAWS, then Rolen would be an easy Hall of Famer as his marks surpass those of the average Hall of Fame third baseman (67.5/42.8/55.2). However, judging from the voting on Rolen, many aren’t. Instead, we hear many knock Rolen for not being that great, for being a complier, etc.
Looking at the criticism of Rolen, you begin to really understand why there are fewer third baseman in the Hall of Fame than at any other position.
Lost in any criticism was Rolen was a truly great defensive third baseman. That’s evidenced by his three Gold Gloves that only trail Brooks Robinson and Mike Schmidt at the position. He wasn’t Robinson with the glove, no one is, but he was a better hitter (122 OPS+ to 104 OPS+). He wasn’t Schmidt with the bat, no other third baseman was, but Rolen was a better fielder than Schmidt (20.6 dWAR to 17.6 dWAR). And you can certainly argue Rolen deserved more Gold Gloves with his being a better defender than players like Ken Caminiti and Mike Lowellwho won the award during Rolen’s prime.
Ultimately, Rolen did not have the bat that screams Hall of Famer, but he still had a 122 OPS+, which would rank him tied for eight amount the 16 third baseman already inducted into the Hall of Fame.
Overall, Rolen had a long and great defensive career, and he was better at the plate than how he is viewed upon by current writers. With his defense and advanced stats, Rolen merits induction into the Hall of Fame.
Stats: 20 years, 216-146; 3.46 ERA, 3116 K, 1.137 WHIP
Advanced: 79.9 WAR, 49.0 WAR7, 64.5 JAWS
Awards: 6x All Star, 1993 NLCS MVP, 2001 World Series MVP
As we all know Schilling is not doing himself any favors with his being a lightning rod in an post playing days, which includes his tweets about lynching the media. However, even with all that he does to shoot himself in the foot, it is still a matter of when and not if he gets inducted into the Hall of Fame.
When compiling the list of the greatest postseason pitchers of all-time, Schilling is on that short list with pitchers like Bob Gibson. In the postseason, Schilling was 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA and a 0.968 WHIP. There are many things you can take away from Schilling’s postseason career – striking out the first five Braves he faced in the 1993 NLCS, pitching three games in the 2001 World Series, the bloody sock, and breaking the Curse of the Bambino.
All of those were great, but consider that in Schilling’s postseason career, he pitched in four elimination games. His team won all four of those games with Schilling going 3-0 with a 0.34 ERA. Schilling allowed no more than two earned in any game, pitched at least seven innings in each start, had two complete games, and one five hit shutout. Basically speaking, if your life was on the, you wanted Schilling on the mound.
But Schilling was more than postseason greatness. He has the best strikeout to walk ratio of anyone ever eligible for the Hall of Fame. He is 15th all-time in strikeouts, and everyone not named Clemens, who has 3,000 strikeouts is in the Hall of Fame.
He has the advanced stats to be inducted as well with his WAR and JAWS being higher than the average Hall of Fame pitcher (73.9/50.3/62.1). His 127 ERA+ ties him with Tom Seaver and Gibson and puts him ahead of pitchers like contemporary and fellow big money pitcher John Smoltz.
Simply put, Schilling was a great pitcher well deserving of induction into the Hall of Fame regardless of whatever trouble he has created in his post playing career.
Stats: 22 years, .276/.402/.554, 451 2B, 26 3B, 612 HR, 1699 RBI
Advanced: 72.9 WAR, 41.5 WAR7, 57.2 JAWS
Awards: 5x All Star
With the Steroids Era, the fascination with 500 homers has certainly gone by the wayside. In fact, of the 27 sluggers in the 500 Home Run Club, 12 of those players played during a time tainted by the steroids era. Many will point out how McGwire, Palmeiro, Sammy Sosa, and Gary Sheffield have not been inducted as proof positive of 500 homers not meaning the same thing anymore.
However, it could also be argued that doing it clean means all the more. In fact, hitting 600 clean is even more astounding. Given Thome never being implicated, he would certainly fall in that astounding category.
Really, you would be hard pressed to find a reason not to put him in. His advanced stats are those of a Hall of Fame first baseman. Even if you were to argue he played a lot of time at DH, it was really only 32% of the time. Moreover, Thome hit 407 homers when he wasn’t a DH. That alone would put him in the Top 20 among all-time first baseman. As it stands, with the extra 205 homers, he’s second best all-time among players whose primary position was first base.
Overall, Thome was the epitome of a slugger, and he should be inducted into the Hall of Fame.
Stats: 17 years, .313/.400/.565, 471 2B, 62 3B, 383 HR, 1311 RBI
Advanced: 72.6 WAR, 44.6 WAR7, 58.6 JAWS
Awards: 1997 NL MVP, 5x All Star, 7x Gold Glove, 3x Silver Slugger, 3x Batting Title
One of the main reasons Walker is not in the Hall of Fame already is because there remains a double standard regarding his candidacy. Many a writer is willing to look the other way on steroids use, but will hold playing in Coors Field against Walker despite his legally playing there. It’s also despite the fact his numbers are good enough regardless of his years at Coors Field.
For example, Walker has a 141 OPS+ and a 140 wRC+. Both OPS+ and wRC+ stabilize offensive statistics for the park and league a player plays his games. For every number above 100, that player is that much better than the league. Using Walker as an example, he was 40% better than the average player during his playing time.Those numbers put him ahead of Hall of Fame right fielders like Reggie Jackson, Al Kaline, Tony Gwynn, Roberto Clemente, Dave Winfield, etc.
The Reggie Jackson parallel is an interesting one. If you were to buy into Walker being a Coors Field creation, consider he hit .282/.372/.501 away from Coors Field (h/t CBS Sports). Reggie Jackson, who was a no-doubt first ballot Hall of Famer, hit .262/.356/.490, and Reggie didn’t win any Gold Glove Awards. Walker’s non-Coors slash line would compare favorably to a number of other Hall of Fame right fielders as well.
The point being is Walker wasn’t Coors Field creation. Rather, he was a great hitter who played great no matter what ballpark he played. Ultimately, Walker was a great hitter, fielder, and he was a great base runner. He could do it all, and players that can do it all belong in the Hall of Fame.
The baseball offseason hasn’t ended, which means the Mets still have time to address the second base position before the season begins. The problem is that while there is conceivably plenty of time left to add a second baseman, the reality of the situation is the Mets options have been dwindling.
Ian Kinsler rejected a trade to the Mets. The Mets rejected a trade for Jason Kipnis. The team does not seem inclined to trade Brandon Nimmo for Josh Harrison as the team believes the Pirates are asking too much for a player with Harrison’s contract.
On the free agent front, Howie Kendrick signed with the Nationals. Neil Walker doesn’t seem inclined for a reunion with the Mets. That leaves behind a really suspect group of second baseman on the free agent market with has been stars like Jose Reyes, Brandon Phillips, and Chase Utleybeing among the top options available. With this being the situation, the Mets should at least be questioning if they can fill the second base vacancy from their 40 man roster:
Wilmer Flores
2017 Stats: 110 G, 362 PA, 336 AB, 42 R, 91 H, 17 2B, 3B, 18 HR, 52 RBI, SB, CS, .271/.307/.488
Advanced Stats: 0.4 bWAR, 0.9 fWAR, 106 OPS+, 106 wRC+
Fielding Stats: -1 DRS, 0.1 UZR
The Mets have Flores everyone but second, which is the position he is most comfortable playing. To be fair, Flores hasn’t exactly forced them to try with his having a career -7 DRS in 667.0 innings at the position. Conversely, the Mets did try Flores at short despite everyone in the baseball world saying it wasn’t going to work.
It is possible Flores could turn himself into an offensive second baseman who handles the position enough defensively to justify playing him everyday. It certainly helps that Flores’ extreme platoon splits began to stabilize last season with Flores hitting a respectable .262/.306/.459 off right-handed pitching. If he makes continued strides on that front, gets settled in and focuses on improving defensively at one position, and continues to improve as an all around player as he hits his peak years, the Mets may very well have a viable second base solution with Flores.
T.J. Rivera
2017 MLB Stats: 73 G, 231 PA, 214 AB, 27 R, 62 H, 13 2B, 3B, 5 HR, 27 RBI, SB, .290/.330/.430
Advanced Stats:0.4 bWAR, 0.2 fWAR, 100 OPS+, 103 wRC+
Fielding Stats: 0 DRS, -0.3 UZR
There are just so many questions surrounding Rivera, not the least of which about when exactly he will be able to play after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September. Typically, position players require a shorter rehabilitation time than pitchers, but Opening Day or even before the All Star break could be asking too much of him. That’s a real shame because with his ability to hit he may very well have gotten an opportunity both last season and this year to prove the player who helped save the 2016 season is the man for the second base job in 2018.
Luis Guillorme
2017 MiLB Stats: 128 G, 558 PA, 481 AB, 70 R, 136 H, 20 2B, HR, 43 RBI, 4 SB, 3 CS, .283/.376/.331
If the Mets were making this decision purely off of who was the best defensive player available, Guillorme would undoubtedly get the call next year. He has both the ability to make the difficult play look routine and the ability to routinely make the spectacular play. It’s part of the reason why the Mets added him to the 40 man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft.
The question with Guillorme has been and will continue to be his bat as he has never hit for any power at any level in the minors. Those concerns may be overstated because Guillorme has always shown an understanding of both the strike zone and who he is as a player, and as a result, he finds a way to consistently get on base. With that said, he should benefit from some time in Triple-A.
Matt Reynolds2017 MLB Stats:68 G, 130 PA, 113 AB, 12 R, 26 H, 2B, 2 3B, HR, 5 RBI, CS, .230/.326/.301
Advanced Stats: -0.3 bWAR, -1.2 fWAR, 69 OPS, 74 wRC+
Fielding Stats: 1 DRS, 0.5 UZR
Reynolds at second is interesting for a few reasons, not the least of which that he is likely the player to be dropped from the 40 man roster in the event the Mets go out and obtain a second baseman before the season begins.
With Reynolds, we have seen a player who is solid at any position he plays. And Reynolds is more than willing to play them all. At the plate, he has mostly struggled, which has only made his occassional outbursts all the more pleasantly surprising. It would be interesting to see if he gets regular at-bats, and he works closer with Pat Roessler if he could hit enough to justify playing him everyday. It’s not likely, but that doesn’t mean it’s impossible.
Gavin Cecchini
2017 MLB Stats: 32 G, 82 PA, 77 AB, 4 R, 16 H, 2 2B, HR, 7 RBI, CS, .208/.256/.273
2017 MiLB Stats: 110 G, 497 PA, 453 AB, 68 R, 121 H, 27 2B, 3 3B, 6 HR, 39 RBI, 5 SB, 4 CS, .267/.329/.380
Advanced Stats:-0.7 bWAR, -0.7 fWAR, 41 OPS+, 40 wRC+ (MLB), 85 wRC+ (AAA)
Fielding Stats: -3 DRS, 0.3 UZR
Heading into the 2017 season, Cecchini was coming off consecutive strong minor league seasons, and he played well in the Arizona Fall League. Seemingly, he was on a path to become a Major League player for the Mets in the not too distant future. This makes it all very difficult to ascertain what exactly happened to him.
His struggles could be attributed to his switching from shortstop to second base. It could also be attributed to his BABIP normalizing. In 2015 and 2016, two years Cecchini had good offensive numbers, he had a .348 and .357 BABIP. Last year, it dropped precipitously to .283, which does help explain why his numbers dropped so far.
Likely, it was due to these struggles the Mets never gave him a real shot to prove himself at second base at any point last season even with the position becoming somewhat of a revolving door. With that in mind, it likely beehoves him to spend another year in Vegas with a new coaching staff to get himself straightened out.
Overall, the Mets need to straighten out this second base situation. Given some of the external options available to them, they would be well justified giving Flores a shot to hold the position until he proves he cannot handle the position on an everyday basis or until Rivera comes off the Disabled List. No, that’s not an ideal situation, but until such time as the Mets are willing to take back a contract like Kipnis’ or Harrison’s, it is the position they are in at the moment.
When Sandy Alderson took over as the Mets General Manager, one of the areas of emphasis was supposed to be building a sustainable farm system that would give the Mets continued success throughout the years. This, in turn, would prevent the Mets from having to give out those proverbial second generation contracts Alderson purportedly despises giving to players.
Now, in order for that to happen, the team was going to have to not only draft well, but they were going to have to identify international talent. If the Mets had indeed done well in those efforts, the Mets Opening Day roster would have looked something like this:
C – Travis d’Arnaud; Kevin Plawecki
1B – Dominic Smith
2B – Gavin Cecchini
3B – Asdrubal Cabrera
SS – Amed Rosario
LF – Yoenis Cespedes
CF – Juan Lagares/Brandon Nimmo
RF – Michael Conforto
But as we know it doesn’t. One of the reasons why is the team has not developed position players as well as the organization, or really anyone would have liked. If you are not being so understanding, you would say the Mets whiffed on high draft picks by drafting players who are either backups or career minor leaguers.
Look, no one has a perfect draft record, and we should remember this regime did draft Conforto and Michael Fulmer. The problem there is they traded Fulmer away. That is something they are reportedly not willing to do with Nimmo despite the fact he is blocked by Cespedes, Conforto, and Jay Bruce for the next three years.
With respect to Cecchini and Smith, the Mets have decided at a minimum, neither are ready to start next season in the majors. This would be easier to swallow had either received a real shot of proving their abilities. Instead, the Mets will go with broken Adrian Gonzalez and who knows what at second.
Overall, the 2017 Mets are not what Sandy Alderson envisioned what they would be when these players were first drafted. That’s fair to a certain extent because no one imagined that the Mets would look this way when the team won the pennant in 2015.
Perhaps no one in the history of the New York Mets has gotten more chances to prove themselves than Rafael Montero. The fact that is true has continued to baffle and irritate Mets fans who have watched him pitch to a 5.38 ERA and 1.705 WHIP in his Major League career.
But it’s more than that. The Mets have questioned his competitiveness and his toughness. They have even had him suffer the indignity to being demoted to Double-A. Nothing seems to work, and yet he remains on the Mets roster. Worse yet, he remains while talented pitchers who have produced are sent packing.
If we are being fair, we should pinpoint the 2016 season as the breaking point. In 2014, Montero acquitted himself well in his limited time, and in 2015, Montero suffered an injury, albeit one the Mets doubted truly existed. Montero would get a chance again in 2016. There’s no sugar coating just how poorly he pitched. About the only place he pitched well was Binghamton, and he wasn’t exactly stellar there going 4-3 with a 3.12 ERA.
And yet, Montero remained a Met.
After the 2016 season, the Mets traded both Gabriel Ynoa and Logan Verrett to the Baltimore Orioles for cash considerations to help clear up space on the 40 man roster. The team would lose Matthew Bowman in the Rule 5 Draft. An injured Sean Gilmartinwas designated for assignment and claimed off waivers by the St. Louis Cardinals.
Because of these moves and because of all the injuries, Montero got another chance in 2017. He would reward the Mets faith and patience by going 5-11 with a 5.52 ERA, 1.748 WHIP, 5.1 BB/9, and an 8.6 K/9.
In an effort to be as fair as possible to Montero, he did get his first real extended chance to prove he belongs in the majors. From June 15th until the end of the season, he was on the Major League roster, and he would make 21 appearances and 16 starts. In that stretch, he was 5-7 with a 4.98 ERA, 1.591 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9, and an 8.5 K/9.
Certainly, that was better, but it was not significantly different than his career numbers, which just have not been the caliber of a Major League starting pitcher. While you may not feel as if the Mets lost much of value in the aforementioned pitchers lost, the healthy pitchers in the group undoubtedly pitched better than Montero last year.
Now, the Mets are repeating their same mistakes. After the conclusion of the 2017 season, the team drafted Burch Smithin the Rule 5 Draft and sold him to the Kansas City Royals. To make room for Jay Bruce and Adrian Gonzalez on the 40 man roster, Kevin McGowan and Chasen Bradford were designated for assignment.
While McGowan struggled in his time in the majors last year, Bradford certainly did not. In fact, Bradford was one of the few pleasant surprises last season. In 28 major league appearances, he was 2-0 with a 3.74 ERA, 1.277 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9, and a 7.2 K/9. Montero would have to significantly improve to match those numbers, and yet, he is the one that remains on the 40 man roster.
At some point, push is finally going to come to shove, and Montero will no longer be a part of the Mets organization. With Montero being out of options, maybe this year is the year. Maybe not. After all, the Mets do have spots open for competition in the Opening Day bullpen, and by now I’m sure the Mets have talked themselves into believing Mickey Callawayand Dave Eiland will turn Montero into the next Dennis Eckersley.
Editor’s Note: This was first published on MMO