As I do from time to time, we need a “completely serious” analysis and projection of each and every Mets player who is expected to contribute during the 2018 season. While there are many prjoection systems which claim to be fool-proof, there are none that will be this accurate about the Mets:
Sandy Alderson – The other 29 GMs in baseball will be left in complete hysterics when Alderson is calling around for a right-handed reliever to help boost the team’s chances to making the postseason.
Mickey Callaway – The writers will overwhelmingly vote him as the National League Manager of the Year. The most cited reason for giving him the award will be the fact he didn’t insist on playing his worst players or forcing his players to play through crippling injuries.
Dave Eiland– Multiple Mets pitchers will hug him for actually fixing their mechanics and for listening to them when they say they’re hurting.
Tyler Bashlor – When someone notices how similar his name is to the ABC reality show hit The Bachelor, they’ll say how “The Bashlor” is handing out strikeouts like they’re roses. We should all hate that person.
Jerry Blevins– Until he eats a sandwich, the socks given away in his honor will hang around his ankles
Bryce Brentz– He’s going to be the guy who has one or two at-bats this season, and someone is going to invoke his name as a former Met to try to sound like he knows more about the Mets than you know anything.
Jay Bruce– After a four home run game, all Mets fans will want to talk about is when he is going to move to first base.
Asdrubal Cabrera – After a slump, Callaway will move Cabrera down in the lineup causing Cabrera to bring his kids to the clubhouse and have them ask why Callaway doesn’t want them to eat.
Jamie Callahan– His wearing #43 will serve as a constant reminder that not only was he part of the return for Addison Reed, but also how the Mets turned quality MLB players into six right-handed relief prospects. That will be the worst possible sequel to I Know What You Did Last Summer.
Yoenis Cespedes – After an MVP caliber first half, he will feel like he has earned just one game of golf as a reward during the All Star Break. He will immediately be vilified.
Michael Conforto – After a huge cut and a swing and miss, Conforto will wince for a moment thereby causing a passionate Mets fans behind home plate to have a heart attack. This will led to a call for the netting to be filled in and for fans to have to watch the game on a tape delay.
Travis d’Arnaud– During a remarkably healthy season, he will finally be forced to catch Syndergaard, who had spent most of the seaosn with Plawecki as his personal catcher. On the first pitch of the game, Syndergaard throws a 101 MPH fastball which immediately shatters d’Arnaud’s hand.
Jacob deGrom– After a slump, he’s going to look to grow his hair out. Once he realizes his hair cannot possibly reach it’s old length during the 2018, he’s going to grow a really long beard and change his entrance music to “Legs” by ZZ Top.
Phillip Evans– When he cashes in his check for his postseason share, Evans will fondly remember that April pinch hitting appearance.
Jeurys Familia – After he gives up a seventh inning homer to Conor Gillaspie costing the Mets a game, fans will scream for him to pitch in the ninth inning again.
Wilmer Flores – He will be in such hysterics during his struggles in his first game in the outfield his crying on the field in 2015 will look like a case of the sniffles.
Todd Frazier– It will take many Mets fans a long time to come to grips that Jersey Boy Todd Frazier does not use a Bruce Springsteen song as his walk-up music. That point will finally come when they realize Frank Sinatra is from Hoboken and not NYC.
Adrian Gonzalez – He will become James Loney2.0. He will hit well enough for the Mets to stick with him, and the front office will continue to stick with him long after he has since been useful.
Robert Gsellman – As he continues to wait in Las Vegas for his opportunity to get back to the Majors, he will eventually care what Sandy Alderson thinks of him.
Matt Harvey – He’s going to pull a reverse Ben Affleck by going from The Dark Knight moniker to Daredevil. He will earn that name by following Eiland’s instructions to throw inside with such reckless abandon to the point where people start to question if he’s gone blind.
Juan Lagares – After once again injuring his thumb on a diving attempt, the Mets will finally realize Lagares’ injures were the result of him literally using a gold glove to try to play center. While they found the answer and solution for the thumb injuries, they will still be perplexed on how to fix his hitting.
Seth Lugo– We won’t know if people keep referring to the hook with him because of his incredible curveball or because of how Callaway won’t let him face a lineup for a third time.
Steven Matz– In addition to the sandwich he has named after him at the Se-port Deli, he will have one named after him at the cafeteria at the Hospital for Special Surgery.
Brandon Nimmo– Despite putting up great numbers, the Mets will inform Nimmo they unfortunately have to send him down to Triple-A due to a temporary roster squeeze. When he’s still smiling through the ordeal, they will force him to seek psychological counseling.
Kevin Plawecki– On a day when the Mets are getting blown out, the frustrated Plawecki will use the last of his six mound visits to derisively tell his pitcher he can pitch better than this. The pitcher will remind him he has a better batting average than Plawecki.
AJ Ramos – After striking out Giancarlo Stanton in a Subway Series game, he’s going to go home and find his friend has moved out of their shared apartment. Odd Couple style hilarity ensues.
Jose Reyes– One day, he will hit a triple and score on a mad dash to home plate. He will have that old Reyes smile, and it will electrify the crowd. It will also cause everyone to forget that he is one of the worst position players in all of baseball.
T.J. Rivera – After he comes off the disabled list, he’ll deliver in the clutch for the Mets and his teammates will honor him as the player of the game. The Mets will make sure he’s not standing in front of Plawecki’s locker when they take a photo to tweet out.
Hansel Robles– Many will credit him with the discovery of extra terrestrials by his discovery of a UFO in the Vegas night. Years later, Robles will sheepishly admit all he was doing was pointing up at another homer he allowed.
Amed Rosario– To the surprise of us all, Rosario will strike out looking when the pitcher throws him a pitch which he was surprised at and was not ready to swing at. Entire belief systems will be shattered.
Jacob Rhame– Like Jason Phillips, he will soon realize fans may first like you for the googles and smile in your photo, but really, they’re only going to love you if you produce.
Paul Sewald– After having spent a year with Terry Collins, he’s going to be the player most comfortable with having no defined role in the bullpen. However, it will be an adjustment for him not having to warm up multiple times per game.
Dominic Smith – When he gets called up to the Majors as part of September call-ups, he will be late on a pitch causing his manager to believe he learned nothing from Spring Training.
Anthony Swarzak – The jokes about not knowing how to spell his name will get old by mid-April. The jokes will be rediscovered in August when more fans tune it to a Mets team that is a surprising contender. The jokes will continue to not be funny.
Noah Syndergaard– He will continue his “Twitter Feud” with Mr. Met. It will be discussed ad nausesum during nationally televised games. America will think it’s amusing only fueling the spat even further and giving no hope to Mets fans who have long since found this to be unfunny.
Jason Vargas – When Reyes introduces himself, Vargas will remind him they were teammates in 2007. Both recall that season and will agree it never happened.
Zack Wheeler– He will be converted to a reliever, and in a surprise to us all, he will lead the league in saves. In a surprise to him that league will be the Pacific Coast League.
David Wright– He will apologize and sheepishly admit the Mets crown was an embarrassingly bad idea. He will try to come up with a way to rectify it, but no one will listen to his ideas on the topic anymore.
Heading into last season, it at least seemed the Mets were not as high on the former first round pick as they once were. There were whispers he was really best suited to being a fourth outfielder. Brandon Nimmo would respond by becoming an on base machine when he was called up to the Mets.
From July 30th until the end of the season, he hit .248/.368/.420 with a simply outstanding 15.2% walk rate.
However, that wasn’t enough for the Mets to think of him as anything more than a fourth outfielder. Rather than giving him an inside path to at least fight for a spot in the everyday outfield, the Mets signed Jay Bruce and Adrian Gonzalez. By and through those signings, the Mets indicated they wanted Michael Conforto in center, and they wanted Nimmo on the bench.
More than that, the Mets gave early indications they wanted to see Juan Lagares win the center field job out of Spring Training. Yes, that job was only going to be Lagares’ for about a month or so, but it seemed to be his. Certainly, his elite defense and supposed revamped swing were factors, but the Mets lack of belief in Nimmo also seemed to play a part.
Nimmo responded once again by having an outstanding Spring Training. He would hit .306/.371/.613 with six doubles, two triples, three homers, and 11 RBI. He continued to show an excellent eye posting an absurdly high 22.5% walk rate.
With that Spring Training, Nimmo is going to enter the 2018 season batting leadoff and playing center field.
But for how long? From what we saw, Conforto is well ahead of schedule, and we can expect to see him in Flushing before his May 1st projected return date. While Gonzalez has looked done for most of Spring Training, he did finish Spring Training strong. It’s also important to note historically April is Gonzalez’s best month of the season. Put another way, Gonzalez may play just well enough where you can’t justify sitting him.
That is unless Nimmo is that good. At this time, we don’t know if Nimmo will have one, two, or three or more weeks to prove himself. As we have seen in his young career, if you give him an opportunity, he is going to prove himself. Based upon his history, we can see he is going to do all he can to force the Mets hand.
To that end, the question is whether he is going to have enough time to prove to the Mets he is the long term answer in both center and the lead-off spot.
As Mets fans, we obsess over the Mets, and we magnify each and every flaw in our favorite team’s roster. We see a team overelying on an aging player with a bad back in Adrian Gonzalez instead of going with their optimal lineup and defensive alignment. We see a pitching staff unable to stay healthy. We see the same thing with many of the position players. As a result, we may not be as excited about the 2018 season as we would normally be.
What is interesting, at the same rate, we do not look as in-depth into other team’s rosters to see their very same flaws. Specifically, we do not look at the Washington Nationals roster are really identify how that is a very flawed team at the moment, and just like in 2015, they may very well be a team ripe to be knocked out of their perch. Here’s why:
Rotation Issues
Over the past few years, Max Scherzer has emerged as quite possibly the best pitcher in all of baseball. He’s a virtual lock for a Top 3 spot in the 2018 Cy Young voting. After him ensues a group of question marks similar to what we see in Flushing.
Stephen Strasburg is great, but that is only when he stays on the field. He has only thrown 200 innings in a season once, and that was four years ago. While not quite as catastrophic as the injuries we have seen with the Mets pitchers, he continues to get nicked up, and he is usually good for at least one stint on the disabled list.
Gio Gonzalez may have had a bounce-back year last year with his finishing in the Top 10 of Cy Young voting, but the advanced numbers suggest he’s due for a messy regression. Last year, Gonzalez led the league in walks, and his strikeout rate continued its four year downward trend. Really, he was a large beneficiary of an unsustainable .258 BABIP and 81.6% stranded rate. That’s why his FIP was 3.93 and xFIP was 4.24.
Behind them Tanner Roark is coming off a disappointing year that saw him have a career worst 4.67 ERA, 1.335 WHIP, and 3.2 BB/9. For the fifth starter, the Nationals will start with the unproven A.J. Cole, who had a 5.20 FIP in 11 games for the Nationals last year.
Key Regression Candidates
One of the reasons why the Nationals had a great year last year was they had a numbers of unexpected career years. Heading into the 2018 season, the Nationals will be reliant on those players duplicating those dubious numbers.
First, there was Michael Taylor who shocked everyone by hitting .271/.320/.486. For Taylor to replicate that season, he is also going to have to go out there and repeat his insanely high .363 BABIP. For Taylor, it was not just at the plate, but in the field. Heading into last year, Taylor had a -7 DRS in 1287.0 innings played. Last year, he had an 8 DRS in 940.1. Even with him approaching his prime, it’s hard to believe Taylor is a truly transformed player.
Ryan Zimmerman seemed to bounce-back from two poor offensive seasons, and the injury plagued Nationals star put up a Zimmerman season of old. Like with Taylor, we did see those stats were BABIP fueled. For his career, Zimmerman has a .307 BABIP, but he had a .335 BABIP last year.
And while they were only brought in to be bench players, the Nationals are relying Howie Kendrick and Matt Adams, two players who had tough 2016 seasons, to repeat their strong 2017 offensive seasons.
Injury Concerns
After having microfracture surgery in the offseason, Daniel Murphy is going to start the season on the disabled list. It is expected he is going to be available mid-April, but that is only if he suffers no setbacks. And even if he does return and hits the way we all know he is capable of hitting, Murphy, who has never been a strong defender, may find himself even more limited in the field.
There is also a legitimate question what type of player Adam Eaton will be a year after having surgery to repair a torn ACL and meniscus. This isn’t comparing apples to apples because they are much different players, but in his first year back from his own torn ACL, Kyle Schwarber struggled mightily last year.
Also, Anthony Rendon is a bit injury prone. He has only played 150+ games in just two of his five Major League seasons. If he should suffer an injury, the Nationals may be in trouble because this offense is not on the same solid footing it was last year.
Catching Sitaution
The Nationals have one of the worst catching situations in all of baseball. Matt Wieters is not only bad at the plate (81 OPS+ since 2015), but he continuously ranks as one of the absolute worst pitch framers in all of baseball.
Behind him is Miguel Montero, a player the Cubs released after he complained about how his pitching staff holds on runners. For his part, Montero has just a 90 OPS+ since 2013, and his pitch framing abilities had a noticeable drop last year.
New Manager
There were many reasons why people do not believe in Dusty Baker as a manager. Really, you need not look any further than his decision to bat a completely washed up Jayson Werth second in a do or die game. That’s an indefensible decision from your manager.
However, while his strategy may have left much to be desired, Dusty was always able to control a clubhouse. Remember, this was the guy who inherited the mess Matt Williams left behind. Dusty had to manage a team who had both Bryce Harper and Jonathan Papelbon. Dusty made it work because that’s what he does.
Now, despite the Nationals winning the division in consecutive years in franchise history, Dusty has been replaced by Dave Martinez. For many, Martinez was an inspired hire, and he very well might be. However, he is also largely unproven, and as such he remains a question mark.
Counter-Argument
Ultimately, many will point to just how much better and deeper the Nationals are on paper. The team also has top prospect Victor Robles waiting in the wings, and he could be a complete game changer next season. Another major consideration is the Nationals bullpen looks poised to be their best in years. With everything put together, you see why many are picking the Nationals to be the National League representative in the World Series even despite the team having never won a postseason series.
Now, it’s entirely possible the prognosticators are right, and the Nationals are that good. That would surprise no one. However, at the same token, let’s not pretend the Nationals winning the National League East is a fait accompli. It isn’t because the Nationals are dealing with a much narrower margin of error most believe they are as the season begins. Ultimately, while they are the favorites on paper, this is a team who is vulnerable.
Even if they are vulnerable, it’s going to take the Mets to give them everything they got. This Spring, the Mets looked and felt like a different team under Mickey Callaway. Maybe, just maybe, that is enough to help push this Mets team over the top. It will be fun watching the next 162 games to find out.
The Mets Fan
My name is Derek Carty. I’m the former fantasy manager for sabermetric sites Baseball Prospectus and The Hardball Times (now part of FanGraphs), but I’m best known these days for my work in Daily Fantasy. I write for ESPN, was on Baseball Tonight during the 2015 season, and put out content through RotoGrinders, including my DFS projection system THE BAT, which has been shown to outperform even Vegas lines.
How You Became a Mets Fan
I’ve been a Mets fan since I was a kid. The crazy-good infield of John Olerud, Edgardo Alfonzo, Rey Ordonez, and Robin Ventura was what I grew up with. I’ve become more jaded over the years…
Favorite Mets Player
Mike Piazza, and it’s not close. Everyone agrees he’s the best hitting catcher of all time, but he was an incredibly underrated defender that got shafted because of the era he played in. He had a bad arm, and that’s all anyone ever focused on back then. But a catcher’s arm is much less important than his framing, and Baseball Prospectus’s retro framing stats show that he was +60 runs above average for his career. He gave some back with the arm, but for his career he was actually a well above-average defender, despite a reputation as a bad one. This is the greatest catcher of all time. Not the greatest hitting catcher. The greatest catcher. Not getting into the Hall on the first ballot was an absolute joke.
Favorite Moment in Met History
2000 NLCS Game 5. I remember listening to “Who Let the Mets Out” on repeat lol.
Message to Mets Fans
“Try not to cry”? That’s been my motto. The way they handled the trade deadline (specifically Lucas Duda and Jay Bruce) was terrible, the Bruce deal this off-season was bad, the way they’ve handled their pitchers has been bad. Seriously, what were they thinking with Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz last year? I really want to be optimistic, but it’s tough. There is *some* reason for it. I like the Todd Frazier deal. I like that they are trying to fix the training staff. I think the A-Gon deal is an okay low-risk move. But as long as the Wilpons are in charge, I have a hard time seeing this organization ever really turning a corner. I have them projected for 84 wins this year, which is solid and could put them in contention for the Second Wild Card, but that’s assuming relatively good health. A team in a market like NYC needs to be better, even if they have to tear it all down first.
The other night, my infant son woke up early while I was doing work on the computer. Since I couldn’t put him back down, I offered to let him share his thoughts on the Mets. This is what he had to say about the team:
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I’m sure many of you will hilariously say this is nothing different than what I already write or that it’s even better than my Mets analysis.
Gavin Cecchini
With the Mets cutting both Luis Guillorme and Gavin Cecchini from Major League camp, the organization inches closer and closer to having to make an important decision on both players. In a little more than two weeks, the Las Vegas 51s will open their season, and new manager Tony DeFrancesco will have to decide who plays second and who plays shortstop.
Both players were drafted as shortstops, and until last year, they mainly played that position. However, with the meteoric rise of Amed Rosario, the Mets appear set at that position for the next decade leaving Guillorme and Cecchini to battle to become the Mets second baseman of the future. That’s not small battle with Asdrubal Cabrera being a pending free agent, and T.J. Rivera possibly getting another crack at the job sometime this season.
With this battle in mind, the Mets have a major decision ahead of them, and the organization needs to being a framework for how they want to shape the competition. The team has a few options on that front.
Cecchini Plays Second
The Mets have given Cecchini as much time as they possibly could to have Cecchini prove he can play shortstop. With his career .944 fielding percentage at the position coupled with his difficulty making accurate throws, it’s apparent he’s not going to regularly play short at the Major League level, so why waste time playing him at short?
Between him and Guillorme, Cecchini is the player who needs more seasoning at second. We have already seen Guillorme play at a Gold Glove level at second base in Binghamton last year, but we did not see that from Cecchini. Ultimately, if the Mets want to have as many viable options at second base as possible, Cecchini needs to play there everyday so he can improve defensively.
Guillorme Plays Second
Over the last few seasons, with the Mets organizational shortstop depth, Guillorme has seen himself increasingly playing second base. Having seen him there, it’s clear he’s the best defensive second baseman in the entire Mets organization. This is important because Cabrera, Jose Reyes, and Wilmer Flores are notoriously poor defensive second baseman.
One of the reasons why Guillorme was added to the 40 man roster this past offseason was because of his exceptional defense. It is entirely possible the Mets considered their current defensive options and foresaw a potential future needs for Guillorme’s glove at some point next season. If that is truly the case, the Mets may want to have Guillorme focused on a position where they may find themselves in real need for his defense.
No Set Positions
As the 51s begin their season, the team will have a number of versatile players with Cecchini, Guillorme, and Ty Kelly. That number will increase in the even Phillip Evans does not make the Opening Day roster. These are four players who could conceivably play in the majors in 2018. These are also four players who have some level of versatility.
That’s important because the Mets will never know which position they will have a need as the season progresses. Remember, last year, infielders Cabrera, Flores, Gonzalez, Reyes, and Rosario all spent time on the disabled list last year. Really with few exceptions, the Mets entire roster has shown themselves to be quite injury prone necessitating everyone in Triple-A be at the ready.
With Cecchini and Guillorme being on the 40 man roster, they would seem to have the inside track over Evans, Kelly, or even David Thompson in the even Todd Frazier is injured or needs to switch positions. This inside track is only as good as either’s ability to play other positions. Certainly, it would help their chances to get called up to the majors if they played some third base or even some outfield. Given his defensive struggles, Cecchini may need to develop more defensive versatility than Guillorme.
The Plan
Right now, we do not really know which player the Mets organization values more, nor do we know if they believe either player can truly be an everyday player at the Major League level. What we do know is there will one day be a second base vacancy, and internally, these are the two players most adept at taking over that position for the next decade. The question is whether they will get their chance.
We will soon find out what the Mets have in store for either player as the Las Vegas season opens on April 7th.
It seemed like finally . . . FINALLY . . . Rafael Montero was about to pitch himself off the Mets roster. This was a long day coming for Mets fans who watched him go 6-16 with a 5.38 ERA, 1.705 WHIP, and a 5.2 BB/9 over parts of four years with the Mets. It was a frustrating experience to watch him continuously go out and pitch and seemingly be afraid to throw a strike.
What is even more maddening about his was he was once more highly regarded than Jacob deGrom. Remember, if Montero was healthy in 2014, it was possible deGrom would have been moved to the bullpen. That would have largely negated deGrom’s chances of winning the Rookie of the Year, and who knows what the long term ramifications would have been for the Mets organization.
That 2014 injury was an oblique injury. In the ensuing seasons, we have heard him complain of shoulder issues. The result was always the same. He complained, and the Mets would find nothing except “regular inflammation” associated with pitching. Montero would eventually go out, and he’d pitch. Except he wouldn’t pitch like the top prospect the Mets believed him to be. Rather, he looked skittish and afraid to throw a strike.
Now that we have the news Montero has a complete tear of his UCL which will likely require season ending Tommy John surgery. We at least have to contemplate if Montero’s issues were really injury and not a talent or mental issue.
Look, the Mets record on handling injuries is disgustingly poor. Time and again, we have seen pressure injured players to play, and we have seen them make mistake after mistake after mistake while learning nothing. Just look at last year. The Mets believed Matt Harvey would not be at full strength until May. The team originally wanted to have Zack Wheeler start the year in Extended Spring Training. However, when there were other injuries, the team opted to push these two to pitch instead of looking to grab a Scott Feldman off the scrap head and offer him a Major League job.
No, the Mets gambled on the core of their team, and they wound up losing both pitchers to stress reactions. The most disturbing discovery was the muscles in Harvey’s pitching shoulder had actually atrophied. That might not have been the case had the team let Harvey get to full strength.
Overall, the Mets have continued to mishandle the injury issues with their pitchers. They don’t require Noah Syndergaard to get an MRI before a start. They challenge Steven Matz to pitch through what was described as a massive bone spur in his pitching elbow. Through all of it, the team wound up with further injured pitchers who provided diminishing returns.
Maybe that was the case all along with Montero. Maybe not. What we do know is he’s going to stick around long enough for the Mets to discover if it was how they handled his injuries rather than how they handled his development.
Next week, the Mets will have the 56th Opening Day in team history. Originally, that start was supposed to go to Jacob deGrom, who would have become the 10th home grown Mets player to start on Opening Day. However, due to a minor setback during Spring Training, that start is going to go to Noah Syndergaard.
The fact there has only been nine home grown Mets who have made an Opening Day start is a function of how many starts were made by some of the best home grown pitchers in Mets history. Are you able to name the nine home grown Mets pitchers who have made an Opening Day start? Good luck!
Tom Seaver Jerry Koosman Craig Swan Dwight Gooden Bobby Jones Dillon Gee Jonathon Niese Matt Harvey Mike Pelfrey
Well, Opening Day is a week away, and Mets fans are getting excited for Mets baseball. Whether this will turn out to be 2015 or 2017 again remains to be seen. Depending on your point of view, you could argue the Mets winning the World Series just as competently as you could argue them having to once again sell at the trade deadline. With this season really up in the air, we turned to our Roundtable, and we asked them what they expect the Mets to do in 2018:
Roger Cormier (Good Fundies & Fangraphs)
What do I expect? I expect hope. Pain. Happiness. Sadness. Great tweets. Bad tweets. Excitement. Anger. A reminder of the second half of 2015. A reminder of #thatssomets moments. “Payroll flexibility”. Health. Injuries. Complicated high fives. Announcers giggling. Anxiety. Feats of power. Feats of nonsense. And I dunno, 83 regular season wins?
Mark Healey (Gotham Baseball)
I know I am being optimistic, but I actually think Mets will be in contention for a wildcard all year, and if the rotation is healthy, could push the Nats for the NL East. I don’t say this as a Mets fanboy (and I think my record is very clear on how critical I can be), but as someone who believes the new on-field regime can take this club to whole new level. A competent manager who understands pitching, a bench coach who clearly knows what he’s doing, and a pitching coach who’s proven he can do more with less, for the first time since Bobby V and Bob Apodaca changed the culture in 1997, this team has the right guys in place. 90 wins.
Joe Maracic (Loud Egg)
It may be my lack of sleep from having a 1 year old, but I believe the Mets will win the East. Before the past few seasons started if the Mets were predicted to win, they lose. This year looks good for us, especially if at least 3 out of the 5 starting pitchers stay healthy.
Michael Mayer (MMO & MMN)
I expect the Mets to contend for Wild Card, though if the rotation returns to health and productivity we could see them at least hang around late in the season for the division.
I believe the Mets left side of the infield defensively is going to give the pitching staff a little boost as well.
If that rings true, the key to the season could come down to what Sandy Alderson does at the deadline to fill needs.
Metstradamus (Metstradums Blog)
For your latest, my expectation is 84 wins, factoring in reasonable injury expectation. This bullpen has the ability to make a lot of starters unhappy and that will keep the win total down. Come back to me if they sign Greg Holland.
Greg Prince (Faith and Fear in Flushing)
The Mets’ general creakiness at several positions concerns me, as does their tendency toward fragility, but what fun is pessimism? The Mets will compete better and longer than they did last year, and let the wins pile up from there.
James Schapiro (Shea Bridge Report)
I can’t answer these questions, because I’m a Mets fan, and I’ve always – literally, always – been convinced that we’re a few pieces, at most, away from being a pennant-winner. Look at this team – we’ve got what could be a very solid rotation, a lineup that could rake if the dice fall the right way, and a guy who has the potential to be a top closer in baseball when he’s healthy. Are things going to go that well? You tell me (the answer is no). But what fun is it to go through all the nightmare scenarios and predict which one will happen? For now, I’m sticking with the optimistic scenario: we come out of nowhere and shock the world. Doesn’t it sound both desperately far-fetched and surprisingly realistic?
Mets Daddy
Like most Mets fans, I’m an optimist on Opening Day. Right now, I expect Todd Frazier to be the 1999 Robin Ventura. I foresee Matt Harvey putting his career back together. I am all the more excited watching Michael Conforto healthy and already hitting homers. If you ask me right now, I’m going to say World Series contender.
Putting my enthusiasm aside, I’ll say this – The NL East is a little more open than we originally believed it to be. Daniel Murphy wont’ be ready for Opening Day, and who knows when he’ll come back. For that matter, who knows what he’ll be when he returns. No one can reasonably expect Ryan Zimmerman to produce like he did last year. It was an outlier. The Nationals are relying way too much on Michael Taylor having figured it out, and Matt Wieters isn’t good behind or at the plate. Also, they lost Dusty Baker, who was a manager who seemed to resonate with that clubhouse.
We take for granted the Nationals will win the division because the Mets have so many question marks and because we have seen the Nationals have great year after great year. They may very well have another one, but it’s far from a certainty. Immaculately, I think this is a closer race than we may have originally thought it to be.
So overall, the Mets Bloggers seem to be a little more bullish on the Mets than many other places. If you are curious why they feel this way, please click on the links next to their names to see their superb work which expounds upon their opinions about the Mets further.
In 46 games as a rookie last year, Amed Rosario hit just .248/.271/.394. Part of that was fueled by his being a rookie adapting to Major League Baseball. Another part of that was Rosario’s drawing just three walks in 170 plate appearances. What is scary is there is evidence to suggest Rosario may be due for a regression from these numbers.
Eno Sarris, then of Fangraphs, found Rosario had troubling exit velocities and launch angles. There is also the fear Rosario’s .330 BABIP will stabilize. Also, it shouldn’t be lost on anyone Rosario walked just three times in 170 plate appearances.
Arguably, the walk rate was the biggest issue with his biggest issue. In Double-A, his walk rate was just 7.6%, and in Triple-A, his walk rate was only 5.4%. Overall, this means the low walk rate is who Rosario is right now as a player. That is troubling, and for the moment, it should make you question where Rosario should hit in the lineup.
Believe it or not, there are some who see him as either an option to lead-off or the future lead-off hitter for this team. To be fair, we did see some glimpses of his being a Jose Reyes type of electric lead-off hitter. However, with his walk rate and OBP, Rosario should not be hitting anywhere near the top of the lineup.
Given his production, you can argue Rosario should be hitting eighth in the lineup. It’s not a far-fetched idea with him arguably being the worst hitter in this lineup. Still, you have to question if this would really be what is best for his long term development. You would be really hard-pressed to argue having a pitcher protecting him in the lineup would help him see better pitches and/or help him work on his ability to draw walks.
Taking everything into account, the Mets really should consider hitting Rosario ninth in the lineup.
By doing this, you are putting Rosario in a much better position to succeed. Instead of a pitcher protecting him in the lineup, he would have someone like Brandon Nimmo or even Michael Conforto. With the pitcher in front of him, there will be more than a few occasions where Rosario will bat with a runner in scoring position and first base open. That’s quite an advantageous hitting situation.
Similar to what Bobby Valentine did with Roger Cedeno in 1999, this could also help Rosario prepare to be a leadoff hitter. With Rosario batting ninth, there may be more than one occasion where he leads off the ensuing inning after the pitcher makes the final out. More than that, when he comes to the plate, Rosario will be able to do so with a table setter’s mentality. After all, with Yoenis Cespedes likely batting second, Rosario will need to find a way to get on base ahead of the run producers to put him in a position to score.
Ultimately, so long as Rosario is able to mentally prepare himself for hitting ninth, this is the ideal lineup position for him to start the year. Should Rosario begin to hit or he show an ability to being drawing walks, the Mets can then find a more prestigious spot in the lineup for him. Until such time, let him both learn how to best utilitze his speed as a table setter and permit him to be better protected in the lineup.