With Jacob deGrom putting an Opening Day deadline for a potential contract extension, the team’s immediate focus is going to be locking him up to the point where he could be a Met for life. Of course, the immediacy of the talks are not just because deGrom set a deadline, it is also because deGrom will be a free agent after the 2020 season.
Looking at the rotation, deGrom is not the only pitcher who is fast approaching free agency. Zack Wheeler will be a free agent after the 2019 season. Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz will be free agents after the 2021 season much like Aaron Nola who just signed a four year $45 million contract extension with the Phillies.
The Nola deal covers the rest of the years he is under team control with a team option for Nola’s first year of free agency. The 2023 team option is worth $16 million.
Looking at Nola, it is important to note he finished third in the Cy Young voting behind deGrom, who settled for $17 million in his third year of arbitration. This means if Nola continues pitching like he did last year, the Phillies will have Nola on a real discount in 2023 thereby freeing the team up to allocate their resources in other areas to improve their ballclub.
Seeing how the market has been relatively set by Nola’s extension coupled with the Mets need for some cost certainty, it would behoove the Mets to pursue extensions with their own starting pitchers. Another important consideration here is Syndergaard and Matz may be at their lowest value.
Syndergaard has been limited to 32 starts over the past two years due to an oblique and then a finger injury. Those injuries have stood in the way of him putting up another great season like he had in 2016. With health and an improved training regiment, which Syndergaard appears to be pursuing, we could see Syndergaard return to the pitcher he was in 2016. Perhaps, he will be even better.
Matz has landed on the disabled list in all four of his Major League seasons, but last year he still made a breakthrough in his career making 30 starts for the first time in his career. During his career, the Mets have seen glimpses from him including his having a 2.51 ERA, 1.021 WHIP, and a 10.9 K/9 in six September starts.
Certainly, the Mets could use the Nola extension as a framework for a possible Syndergaard and Matz extension. You could argue Syndergaard is better than Nola making him worth more money. Certainly, Matz has not had Nola’s success, and with that in mind, the Mets could possibly sign him for even less money.
In short order, the Mets could keep three-fifths of their incredible starting rotation together. This should insulate them from potentially losing Wheeler in free agency. Wheeler leaving could be abated by one of David Peterson or Anthony Kay stepping up this season. Of course, the Mets could sign Wheeler to his own extension.
Perhaps, the Mets and Wheeler could look to Nathan Eovaldi‘s four year $68 million contract as a starting point. After all, both pitchers were strong armed right-handed pitchers who have had injury issues and were roughly league average pitchers until the second half of last year. Wheeler would have the much better second half, but Eovaldi would have a great postseason.
Looking across baseball, increasingly more players are interested in contract extensions. So far this season, we have seen both Nola and Whit Merrifield sign extensions. We may see Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado do the same. It is now time for the Mets to do the same with as many pieces of their rotation as they can.
Last year, Brodie Van Wagenen, in his capacity as Jacob deGrom‘s agent, said if the Mets were not prepared to give his client a contract extension, they should entertain trading him. No, this was not a trade demand, but rather, it was a communication designed to facilitate the two sides agreeing to a contract extension.
Presumably, at that time and in the months that followed, Van Wagenen and deGrom has conversations regarding such an extension. These discussions likely included but were not limited to the type of contract deGrom would be willing to accept. It’s also probably a fair assumption this was a fluid conversation which factored into account how much deGrom’s Cy Young season should affect his negotiating position.
Put another way, when Van Wagenen took over as the Mets General Manager, he knew exactly what it would take to make deGrom a Met for life. By the same token, due to the intimate nature of the agent/player relationship, Van Wagenen May have known reasons why the Mets might not want to extend deGrom.
Because of this, it was no surprise the Mets decided Van Wagenen would not take part in any negotiations with respect to deGrom’s arbitration or extension. This was a reason why the Mets and Van Wagenen would have to settle any conflict of issue issues with the MLB and the MLBAPA. It’s also why at Van Wagenen’s introductory press conference, Mets COO Jeff Wilpon said his GM would not handle deGrom’s extension:
“We didn’t discuss specifics on any one player like that,’’ Wilpon said of deGrom’s future. “I think [deGrom] is to be determined and Brodie is going to have to recuse himself from some of those discussions. He will have to set an overall tone for the organization, which way he wants us to go, and then we’ll have to have some others be responsible for doing the actual contract.
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“The GM gives some guidance, but he’s not totally involved with every last detail,’’ Wilpon said. “[Van Wagenen] can give us direction. He just can’t be involved in the negotiation. Is it something we are worried about? No. We gave it a lot of thought and obviously I went through the process of making sure that everybody was OK with doing this kind of arrangement, of bringing an agent in to our side.’’
(New York Post) [Emphasis added].
That’s unambiguous. The Mets clearly said Van Wagenen would not be involved in negotiating deGrom’s extension.
That story changed today when deGrom gave the Mets an Opening Day deadline to get an extension done. Shortly after that was announced, Van Wagenen said he has been handling negotiations:
Here's Brodie Van Wagenen on Jacob deGrom's contract deadline. He says it's not a big deal, but a mutual understanding: pic.twitter.com/2KT0XnfENK
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) February 12, 2019
Despite the Mets assurances Van Wagenen would not be involved in negotiating deGrom’s contract, Van Wagenen is involved in “discussions,” i.e. negotiations on deGrom’s extension.
While the obvious implication here is the Mets lied, it’s also possible both sides waived the conflict to permit Van Wagenen to be a part of discussions. Whatever the reason, Van Wagenen is now involved making it all the more baffling as to why a deal has not been done.
Remember, Van Wagenen knew or should have known what it would take to lock up deGrom long term. With a deal not getting done, and reports deGrom is getting frustrated, many questions need to be asked:
- Does Van Wagenen know something which would cause the Mets to not want to extend deGrom?
- Did deGrom’s new agent prod deGrom into believing he was worth more costing the Mets a chance to extend deGrom to more favorable terms?
- Did Van Wagenen rely too much on his relationship with deGrom to spend his budget to improve the 2019 roster now and look to extend deGrom later?
- Do the Mets have a pre-existing policy which would stand in the way of deGrom getting the contract he wanted?
- Did the Mets have plan to fill-out the 40 man roster first and then turn to deGrom to extend him (with that plan not being effectively communicated)?
There are several possibilities beyond these, but with each possibility that arises there is one overriding theme – the Mets have not handled this situation well.
That’s inarguable when the Mets have had a clear change in policy regarding Van Wagenen’s role in negotiations. That’s inarguable when the Mets best player is frustrated and now publicly setting deadlines for when an extension must be consummated.
In the end, none of this truly matters. What really matters is no matter the outcome of the extension discussions, the Mets do not permit this to become a distraction. Hopefully, when all is said and done, not only will this not serve as a distraction, but the Mets also find a way to keep deGrom a Met for his entire career.
During his interview with Mike Franceca on WFAN, he would speak about the team, and he would be challenged by Mike on a number of issues. As the General Manager, you can understand Van Wagenen trying to sell the fan base about the team. It is part and parcel of his job.
In some ways, he did effectively did that. He touted the combination of Peter Alonso and J.D. Davis as capably hitting 30 home runs combined from the first base position. He also reminded fans of this being a versatile team with Todd Frazier and Robinson Cano being able to play first base if necessary. This would also allow the team to play Jed Lowrie and have him bat second in the lineup every day.
Behind some of the bravado, some of Van Wagenen’s early bravado began to erode away, and you saw someone who is trying to sell an incomplete roster. We saw this through two telling exchanges. The first notable one regards Bryce Harper and Manny Machado:
On Harper/Machado
BVW: "It's not so easy to find spots for all of our good players already."
MF: "You're telling me you don't have room for them?
BVW: "Probably not the best fit for us."
MF: "Are you telling me you don't have room for them in the lineup?"— Matt Ehalt (@MattEhalt) February 11, 2019
Essentially, Brodie is going to have us believe the team has no room for Machado on the infield. Now, you could argue even with Amed Rosario being disappointing thus far, he is primed to break out next season. He can also point to there already being solid to very good veteran infielders. That’s fair. However, he loses us completely at Harper.
This is a team with just two starting outfielders in Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo. For all of their defensive prowess, neither Keon Broxton or Juan Lagares can’t hit. As for Jeff McNeil, the Mets apparently believed in him so much they aggressively pursued two other All-Star second baseman to play over him.
The Mets will tell you he’s now going to be an outfielder. That’s all well and good, and we all hope he can make the transition. However, no matter how good he is, he is no Bryce Harper.
That’s important due to the second pertinent exchange. When Mike asked if the Mets were better than the Vegas line of 84 wins, Van Wagenen was sure of himself saying, “I think 84 wins is light.” When pressed on whether this was a 90 win team, Van Wagenen was less assured, and he would not commit to the 90 win figure.
That’s very problematic.
Looking at the history of the Wild Card, the lowest win total for a National League Wild Card was 87 wins. That honor belongs to the 2016 Mets and Giants and the 2017 Rockies. No Mets fan wants to see a repeat of Madison Bumgarner and Conor Gillaspie in a winner-take-all game.
Really, if you are in the 84-89 wins range, you are in the postseason race, but you are towards the bottom of that race. That’s not where you want to be with the Nationals, Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Rockies boasting good rosters of their own. And don’t forget the Phillies who are still in a position to pounce on a player or two in what is still a bizarrely loaded free agent class.
When you boil it down, Van Wagenen can be boastful all he wants, but he’s essentially admitted this is an incomplete team. Worse yet, he’s admitting after trading away Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn, Luis Santana, Ross Adolph, Gerson Bautista, Bobby Wahl, Felix Valerio, Adam Hill, and Scott Manea, his work is not nearly done.
Instead of saying, “Come get us!” to the National League, he should be telling ownership to “Please help us!” because this team is far from complete.
During his time in the minors, Jeff McNeil wore a couple of different numbers. Last year, he wore 12 with Las Vegas, and he wore 1 with Binghamton. Overall, he’d wear a variety of numbers including 3, 5, and 10. Naturally, when the Mets called him up to the majors, McNeil was assigned the number 68.
The significance of 68? Well, it was just next in line.
It was something the Mets seemed to start in 2016. That year, the Mets gave T.J. Rivera the number 54, and Ty Kelly was given 55. When Kelly Johnson returned, Kelly was given 56. Over the ensuing years, we’d see the number gradually climb up and up to the point Kelly would wear 66 last year, and eventually McNeil wearing 68.
Now, this is not a practice reserved for all prospects, and it has not been a practice always in place. For example, when Jose Reyes and David Wright were called up, they were given their now iconic 7 and 5 numbers. For that matter, when Eric Campbell was called up to the majors in 2014, he went from 24, a number somewhat unofficially retired by the Mets, to 29.
Put another way, back then the Mets appeared to give their players real numbers. That happened even in 2015 when Daniel Muno wore 16, and Darrell Ceciliani wore 1.
Now, McNeil is going to wear the number 6, a number which was available all of last season. For that matter, Rivera is going to wear 19, which was a number that Jay Bruce had before he was called up to the majors. It should also be noted the 3 he wore with Las Vegas was worn by Curtis Granderson.
Now, there are some restrictions with uniform numbers. For example, recent uniform history suggests Gary Carter‘s 8 and Keith Hernandez‘s 17 are unofficially retired. They may also want to try to preserve numbers for their top prospects like how Peter Alonso was assigned 20 this Spring Training.
Still, there is a wide chasm between not allowing a player to have a certain number and giving them a number in the 50s or 60s. These players have achieved something by making it all the way to the majors. They should be treated as such by giving them a real uniform number, especially as we saw in the case with Dilson Herrera and Juan Uribe, you are going to make the young player switch when a more established player wants the number.
As a side note, it’s more fan friendly as well because if you are someone immediately attached to a player like McNeil, when you go out and get the jersey, or even shirsey, you have the right number and aren’t out money when the player is finally deemed good enough to pick their own real baseball number.
Sadly, Frank Robinson passed away yesterday. He was one of the greatest figures in Major League history becoming the first and only player to win an MVP award in both leagues and becoming the first ever African American to manage a Major League team. Robinson is also only one of 10 Major League players who has had his number retired by two teams.
Can you name all 10 players? Good luck!
Wade Boggs Carlton Fisk Rod Carew Greg Maddux Rollie Fingers Nolan Ryan Hank Aaron Jackie Robinson Reggie Jackson Casey Stengel Sparky Anderson
Last year, in the midst of what was a Cy Young season, Jacob deGrom‘s agent made what can be best classified as a demand for an extension.
Specifically, his agent, Brodie Van Wagenen said, “We have discussed Jacob’s future with the Mets at length. Jacob has expressed interest in exploring a long-term partnership that would keep him in a Mets uniform for years to come. If the Mets don’t share same interest, we believe their best course of action is to seriously consider trade opportunities now. The inertia of current situation could complicate Jacob’s relationship with the club and creates an atmosphere of indecision.”
Since that time, Van Wagenen was hired as the Mets General Manager, and he is thereby prevented from negotiating a contract extension for deGrom due to the existing conflict of interests.
When Van Wagenen was hired, he merely offered, “I’d love to try to keep him if it’s possible. We’ll explore that in the coming weeks.”
A few weeks after Van Wagenen was introduced as the General Manager, Mets COO Jeff Wilpon said, “I’m sure at some point we’ll get to speaking to Jake.”
According to reports, discussions have taken place, but no deal has been consummated. Even with deGrom’s arbitration case pending, no extension was consummated. However, it should be noted the two sides agreed to a record setting arbitration raise and $17 million salary for deGrom.
It’s been six months since deGrom’s extension demand and three months since Van Wagenen was hired, and it appears “inertia” has set in. As predicted by Van Wagenen things may be getting complicated.
As Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported, “Eight weeks later and without any substantive talks since has left the deGrom camp, at minimum, disappointed, especially because the public comments of Mets executives matched what the agents were told privately — that reaching an agreement to avoid deGrom becoming a free agent after the 2020 season was vital to the organization.”
Perhaps this is a coincidence, but it should be noted this was reported a day after The Michael Kay Show and Mike Francesca were lockstep against the extension with Francesca going so far as to say, “It would be the dumbest move in the history of mankind.”
While people may or may not think it is a good idea for the Mets to extend deGrom, this is the exact moment deGrom should be seeking an extension, and he should be utilizing the leverage he has to get it.
As noted in the aforementioned Sherman article, deGrom’s new agent, Jeff Barry, sent a memo to players urging them to respond in kind to the way owners have been handling free agency. If owners are going to use analytics to justify not saying players, players should use them to protect themselves. As noted by Sherman, this would mean someone like deGrom demanding he be used under 200 innings in order to keep him healthy heading into free agency.
Certainly, you could understand deGrom wanting to pursue that path after seeing what happened with Matt Harvey. Harvey was supposed to be a prime member of this free agent class. Instead, his career has fallen apart partially because of Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. There are some who wonder what part in Harvey’s health issues his ignoring his agent’s advice and pitching deep into the postseason had on his career.
Taking all this into account, deGrom needs to use all of his leverage to get that deal now.
And deGrom has a lot of leverage. The Mets just lost the face of their franchise with David Wright medically retiring leaving deGrom as the likely heir to that title. The team has spent the offseason going all-in to try to win the World Series this year. It’s a plan which is partially predicated on deGrom being the ace. It’s a plan which begins to fall apart when deGrom has to be replaced in the rotation by one of the Mets other starting pitching options:
| Pitcher | ERA |
| P.J. Conlon | 8.22 |
| Drew Gagnon | 5.25 |
| Kyle Dowdy (AA & AAA) | 5.15 |
| Chris Flexen | 12.79 |
| Walker Lockett | 9.60 |
| Corey Oswalt | 5.85 |
| Hector Santiago (as a SP) | 6.12 |
That’s a massive drop-off, and it is one deGrom may be pressured into exploiting to get his contract. While Barry’s suggestion to the players to set parameters could help, it may not be sufficient. After all, if the Mets fall apart again in May again, any request to hold back deGrom’s innings is not going to have the same force and effect as it would with a competitive team. Even worse, if deGrom gets hurt his leverage goes completely away, and the Mets are left questioning if they should even give deGrom an extension.
Really, anytime deGrom takes the mound in 2019 he is taking a chance. With his having had Tommy John surgery and an ulnar nerve transposition, he knows that as well as anyone. He should realize that all the more after he went on the disabled list after hyper-extending his elbow during an at-bat. Breaking it down, he knows that because he’s a Mets player.
Examining his leverage and what’s at stake, deGrom needs to seriously consider holding out.
To get the deal he wants, deGrom needs to consider telling the Mets he will not take the mound without an extension. If he and his agents truly feel the Mets are not prioritizing him and are dragging their feet on an extension, he needs to stop pitching. Let the Mets get a taste of their lacking starting pitching depth and realize if they are going to win they need deGrom.
Such a maneuver may not be well received, but with the beginnings of a media campaign against it, why should deGrom care? You may believe he may not be the type of player who would consider this, and that’s fine. It’s part of the reason why people love him. However, you do have to question when enough is going to be enough for him.
They hire his agent, and then the team goes ahead and puts him on the back burner. The man who was in charge of his contract is now giving money that could have been given to him to other players. Pitchers and catchers report in a week, and he still has no deal. When you look at the 2020 payroll, the Mets already have $109 million on the payroll before taking arbitration raises and a Zack Wheeler replacement into account. If deGrom waits, the team may not have money, and he is going to find himself in the position Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and others find themselves – extremely talented with few suitors driving down his price tag.
For his own sake, deGrom needs to let the Mets know he is going to hold out if they are not serious about giving him a contract extension. Hopefully, it never comes to this.
Back in 1987, well after Spring Training had begun, a defeated and dejected Andre Dawson went to the Chicago Cubs and gave them a blank contract where they could fill-in his compensation. Dawson was forced to do that because no Major League team, not even the Montreal Expos where he had spent 11 years, had shown an interest in signing him.
At that time, Dawson was 31 years old, and he was coming off a season where he hit .284/.338/.478 with 32 doubles, 20 homers, and 78 RBI. In his then 11 year career, he already had won the Rookie of the Year, six Gold Gloves, and he was a three time All-Star. To think no one wanted his services is beyond ludicrous.
As we would later discover, this was the result of collusion among owners, which continued to sow the mistrust between owners the MLBPA.
Since that time, things have dramatically improved to the point where the last two Collective Bargaining Agreements were ratified without so much as a hint of a work stoppage. Owners, players, and even fans have been able to enjoy the financial success of the sport, and they have seen the sport grow.
However, now, there are the seeds of mistrust being sown again.
This is something which has been building for a while now. It seems each offseason there is increasingly less activity during the Winter Meetings. Seemingly, teams are all individually yet collectively trying to wait out the market. Teams will tell you they are smarter than they have been in the past, and maybe they are, but there is something suspicious about what is transpiring.
Pitchers and catchers have less than one week before they have to report to Spring Training. Typically, this is the time of year where teams are finding their last pieces of the puzzle. They are signing cheaper veterans, and they are looking to hand out minor league deals with invitations to Spring Training to help sure up their bench and depth.
That’s not the case this year. Rather, there are real difference makers still available in free agency in a way that we have never seen before in the history of free agency:
Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are both 26 years old, and according to WAR, they are top 15 players in the sport since their Major League debut.
Craig Kimbrel is the active saves leader, and he is coming off his third consecutive All-Star season where he saved 42 games, which was the third most in the Majors last year.
Dallas Keuchel is a former Cy Young winner who has been a top 15 pitcher in terms of WAR, wins, and innings pitched since 2015. He is also a four time Gold Glove winner.
Gio Gonzalez is one year removed from a top six Cy Young finish, and he was 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA in five starts for the Brewers as they fought for the Central Division title down the stretch.
Additionally, Mike Moustakas has the third most homers among third basemen over the past two seasons, and Adam Jones is a five time All Starhe has been an above average league hitter in nine of the past 10 seasons including his being just one of 37 outfielders with a wRC+ over 100 over the past two seasons.
While you can make a case for or against each one of these players, the fact these players remain on the free agent market in addition to other valuable commodities is ponderous. There is also the issue with Curtis Granderson and Jerry Blevins needing to accept minor league deals despite having been valuable Major League players for the past few seasons.
As bad as these instances are, there is Jacob deGrom.
Just last summer, his agent said, “We have discussed Jacob’s future with the Mets at length. Jacob has expressed interest in exploring a long-term partnership that would keep him in a Mets uniform for years to come. If the Mets don’t share same interest, we believe their best course of action is to seriously consider trade opportunities now. The inertia of current situation could complicate Jacob’s relationship with the club and creates an atmosphere of indecision.”
This was as soft a trade demand as you can get. Really, this was a demand for a contract extension. The hope was with a new General Manager in place with a new plan, the Mets could pursue that extension. The only problem is the Mets would hire deGrom’s agent as their new General Manager, and Brodie Van Wagenen has not seemed intent on giving his former client the contract extension he asserted deGrom deserved.
That’s the current state of affairs between the players and owners. The owners are keeping player salaries down, and they are hiring player agents and having those agents not making good on their own demands. Even if you think what the owners are doing is justifiable, it is clear the players are not getting the same deals they once were on the free agent market.
This is why you see players like Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt looking for contract extensions with their current teams so as to not be in the same position as this year’s group of free agents. It is why you will eventually see the union striking before the end of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement.