When it comes to re-signing free agents, fans (and teams) always seem to take a grass is greener approach. Case-in-point – There are actually New York Mets fans who actually want Carlos Rodón over Jacob deGrom.
Another example is the Mets apparently not being one of the teams pursuing Seth Lugo this offseason. That’s a mistake.
For years, Lugo was the Mets best reliever, and he might’ve need the best reliever in baseball. He was a versatile pitcher capable of filling any role in the bullpen, and his ability to give more than one inning made him a rarity.
Well, for many reasons, he was not that player this season. Certainly, part of it might’ve been because of his oldest son needed heart surgery while his wife was pregnant with another child who would be born during the season.
All of this takes a mental and physical toll. Lugo never made excuses, but he did struggle at the start of the year.
Whatever the reason, he had a slower start to the season. Before his second child was born, Lugo had a 3.81 ERA while blowing three saves.
After his second child was born, Lugo made 35 appearances. He was 2-1 with one save and 3.44 ERA while not blowing a lead. Before one bad September outing where he allowed three runs, Lugo had a 2.59 ERA from June 25 – September 19.
In other words, he was Lugo. In fact. He was spinning the ball like none other. He’d take that into the postseason.
In the Wild Card Series. Lugo made three scoreless appearances. It marked the first time in his career he pitched on three consecutive days.
That’s especially notable with Lugo because the Mets have been extremely reticent to pitch him consecutive days due to the torn UCL. It’s also part of the reason they permanently moved him to the bullpen.
When you strip it all down, Lugo has thrived in New York. He’s been a big game reliever who gave more than ever expected of him in a postseason series.
These attributes should never be discounted. That goes double for Lugo’s spin rates.
If Lugo was on any other team, this is the type of reliever you’d hope the Mets targeted. However, the Mets aren’t pursuing him. That’s a mistake, and it’s difficult to know why exactly they’re making this mistake.
Hopefully, the Mets soon come to their senses and bring back Lugo. He’s been a very good reliever and promises to continue being that for years to come.
The New York Mets gave out qualifying offers to all of their top pending free agents. That is everyone except Taijuan Walker.
Behind not giving him a qualifying offer was the probable estimation he would accept the offer. For the Mets, that was probably the best case scenario.
After picking up Carlos Carrasco’s option, the Mets only gave two of their starters from last year under contract. Somehow, they need to add three more starters, or two, if they want a Tylor Megill/David Peterson Spring Training battle for the fifth starter spot.
Overpay or not, bringing Walker back for one year was a great situation. It gives Megill and Peterson another full year to get ready to take over a spot. It also gives more time to prospects like Matt Allan, Dominic Hamel, and Calvin Ziegler.
More than that, with Walker, the Mets were keeping a dependable starting pitcher. He’s in the top 40 in starts and innings pitched over the past two seasons. There’s incredible value in just being able to pitch every fifth day and give 5+ innings.
We can and should delve deeper than that. After all, the Mets have a lot of costly decisions to make this offseason. They really can’t just overpay. Well, Walker really isn’t an overpay.
The WAR/$ valuation model rebounded slightly last season with 1 WAR being equivalent to roughly $8.5 million. Last year, Walker had a 2.6 WAR meaning he was worth $22.1 million.
Remember, the qualifying offer is $19.65 million. Walker provided more value than that last year. He’s likely to do it again.
Walker was much stronger in the second half than he was in 2021. He’d shown himself to be healthy and durable in consecutive seasons. His splitter has increasingly become a weapon.
All that taken into account, Walker is worth a one year deal. The Mets would be better off if he accepts. They’d also be in great shape if he rejects it because they’d get compensation if he signed elsewhere.
Overall, there was nothing but upside on giving Walker the qualifying offer. Unfortunately, the Mets made an unforced effort and didn’t leaving us to at least be slightly concerned Billy Eppler is not the right person for this job.
Looking at the New York Mets, there’s surprisingly a lot of work to do for a 101 win roster. Aside from having to completely rebuild a pitching staff, the Brandon Nimmo free agency complicates matters.
With Nimmo a free agent, the Mets need to re-sign him or get creative (which never ends well). Aside from that, re-signing Nimmo of not, the Mets have to address their relative lack of power.
On both of these fronts, there are rumors the Mets have interest in Trea Turner. While Turner is a great player, it doesn’t make much sense.
Look, Turner is a great player, and if you have an opportunity to add him to your roster, you do it. However, you have to ask why Turner fits with the Mets and whether the money can be better invested (i.e. Nimmo).
Start with Francisco Lindor being entrenched at short. Lindor is younger and a better defender. You’re not moving him for Turner leading to find him another position. With Turner being 29 and already declining defensively, that’s probably a good idea anyway.
In terms of CF, Turner hasn’t played the position since 2016. That effectively means he’s not an option there. This is also where things get slightly complicated for the Mets.
Arguably, the versatility of Jeff McNeil permits the signing of Turner. However, that may create more problems than it solves.
Turner has never played third in his career, and the Mets seem resolute in never playing McNeil there again. As a result, this does nothing to solve the Mets third base issues (which may eventually be Brett Baty anyway).
Turner sparingly played second in 2021 and was quite good. That would force McNeil to left or right, which is also fine because he’s a slightly above average corner outfielder.
Moving McNeil to left also is what causes a problem for the Mets.
Shifting McNeil to a corner spot forces Starling Marte to center. That is something the Mets specifically sought to avoid when they signed Marte. In fact, if that was their plan, they would’ve had Nimmo play right field last year.
Marte was already declining defensively in center, and his sprint rate was dropping. Moreover, he’s a bit injury prone making center a problematic position for him for the long term.
This would also have the Mets looking to play Mark Canha everyday again. Playing everyday goes to the heart of the Mets power issue.
Canha slugged .403 last year and has slugged .397 over the last three years. As a fourth outfielder/platoon option, he’s phenomenal depth. As an everyday player, there are some issues.
On the power front, Turner would solve their problems a bit even if he is not who is was in 2020 when he posted career bests in exit velocity and barrels. As an aside, his exit velocities have trended down since that 2020 season.
Keep in mind, Turner will be 30. He’s nearing the end of his prime, and he’s already showing some signs of decreased production. No, this does not mean his prime is over or that he won’t be great.
Rather, it’s a warning. We don’t know how well he’ll age or how many years remain in his prime. We just know he’s showing signs he should move off short sooner rather than later and that the power has a very slight dip.
Taking it all into account, the Mets have to ask whether Turner is worth it. Arguably, signing him means they part ways with one of Nimmo or Jacob deGrom. Maybe both.
Moreover, while it helps with the power (and certainly the speed), the Mets have to ask if that’s enough. That does double when you consider Nimmo is the only everyday CF on the market. Does signing Turner over Nimmo actually make the Mets better?
Of course, we shouldn’t discount that this is Steve Cohen. If he can sign deGrom, Nimmo, and Turner, he will. If he can do that, the Mets would be scary, and you’ll be hard pressed to come up with reasons why they won’t win the World Series.
Short of signing all three, it would seem Turner makes the least amount of sense for the Mets especially considering the real gaps in the rotation and center.
The minute Jacob deGrom exercised his opt out was the exact minute anything could happen. At some point, a team could unexpectedly swoop in and offer him a deal to steal him right out from under the New York Mets.
Case-in-point: no one expected the Los Angeles Angels to sign Noah Syndergaard after the Mets offered him a qualifying offer. However, it happened, and Syndergaard is gone. There are some who expect the same will happen with deGrom.
From Jon Heyman, "Folks who have spoken to the Mets lately opine that they believe deGrom seems pretty likely to leave."
— Metsmerized Online (@Metsmerized) November 8, 2022
There are some who expect him to go to the Texas Rangers. There are some believing the San Diego Padres may be suitors. You can never count out the Los Angeles Dodgers or Boston Red Sox. There are reports the Atlanta Braves want to make a run (this doesn’t pass the smell test after they let Freddie Freeman go for less than deGrom will cost).
When you look around, there aren’t many people who expect deGrom to return to the Mets. Well, that is except for the people who know deGrom best. We have heard Chris Bassitt, Syndergaard, and Zack Wheeler say they expect deGrom to say. They say he’s happy with the Mets and only wants a fair market deal.
When deGrom signed his initial extension, he spoke about how he wanted to be a Met for life like his friend David Wright. We have heard exactly nothing that would have us believe deGrom has changed his mind on that. Really, all we have is conjecture from people that they believe deGrom might go.
If it comes down to money, well, the Mets have Steve Cohen.
Cohen was the same man who gave Francisco Lindor $1 million more than Fernando Tatis Jr. to get him to sign a contract extension. He have Edwin Diaz the largest ever deal for a reliever to get him to stay. He handed out the largest average annual value to Max Scherzer to get him to come to the Mets. Now, all of a sudden, he’s going to let deGrom walk over money?
If Cohen has shown us anything, he’s not going to necessarily let money stand in the way. He knows great players need to get paid, and that great players deserve more than their “value.” Mostly, Cohen understands deGrom is Mets royalty, and Cohen respects Mets history.
Cohen brought back Old Timers’ Day. Keith Hernandez and Willie Mays had their numbers retired. Former players like Ray Knight talk about how they loved the Mets, hated, the Wilpons, and now, feel more welcomed to return to the ballpark.
Cohen was also a Mets fan when Tom Seaver was traded. While not on the same level, deGrom is this generation’s Seaver. Arguably, deGrom is the second greatest Met of all-time. He could be their next Hall of Famer (depending on what happens with Carlos Beltran), and he could have his number retired by the Mets one day.
Does Cohen want to be the owner who let deGrom leave over money? Does he want to see deGrom leave on his watch? The answers should likely be no.
Another thing here is Cohen has cited the Los Angeles Dodgers as the model he wants to follow. Well, time and again, even with the injuries, the Dodgers have found a way to keep Clayton Kershaw, even with all of his injuries.
The Dodgers have understood for true franchise greats and Hall of Famers the typical rules don’t apply. You take care of those players because they’re a part of the fabric of your organization. Another important factor is when the Dodgers deal with Kershaw the entire baseball world is watching.
It’s the same with the Mets. Everyone wants to see how the Mets handle their first homegrown future Hall of Famer to hit free agency.
How he’s treated impacts whether other players want to play for the Mets or stay with the team. It’ll impact agents handling extensions. Again, there is a real impact.
Through all of it, we’re left with the simple fact Jacob deGrom wants to be a Met for life, and Steve Cohen has the ability to make it happen. If this is all truly the case, there are no excuses for not getting a deal done.
The Baseball Hall of Fame announced the “Contemporary Baseball Era Committee” ballot. In the common vernacular, it’s time for the Veteran’s Committee to vote on what is a highly controversial ballot likely to induce controversial results.
Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Curt Schilling are some of the most controversial players to ever appear on the ballot. Their respective controversies led to them landing on this ballot.
After that, there are a number of players with interesting cases. That is all except Don Mattingly. For his part, Mattingly has no business being on this ballot.
This is the romanticism of his career. He was a New York Yankee for his entire career. He was the only true great Yankee never to win a World Series. In fact, he’d only play in one postseason.
When you strip it all down, back injury or not, he was not close to the Hall.
Mattingly had a 42.4 WAR/35.8 WAR7/39.1 JAWS. That puts him in the same boat as Adrian González, who retired with similar numbers and had similar back injuries.
Keep in mind, no one is going to give González real Hall of Fame consideration. That’s even with him having a better WAR than Mattingly and having some postseason success.
Put Mattingly aside. The Hall of Fame was founded in 1936. In the ensuing 86 years, 25 first baseman have been inducted. They’ve averaged a 65.5 WAR/42.1 WAR7/53.8 JAWS.
Mattingly comes nowhere close to measuring up. Putting him on this ballot is a farce. It’s outright criminal when a vastly superior player in Keith Hernandez wasn’t placed on that ballot.
The Hall of Fame case for Hernandez has been detailed on this site previously. To sum it up, Hernandez fares very favorable to contemporary first baseman recently inducted like Eddie Murray.
Aside from Bonds, he’s the only player at his position to have the most Gold Gloves at his position and not be inducted into the Hall of Fame. With respect to Bonds, that may well change, but it can’t now with Hernandez.
Hernandez was the 1979 NL MVP. He’s won 11 Gold Gloves. He was the New York Mets first captain. He’s won two World Series. In sum, this should all lead to his Hall of Fame induction.
However, whoever decided to create this ballot omitted Hernandez (and other worthy candidates like Lou Whitaker) for Mattingly. It’s a farce because Hernandez was far superior.
Hernandez had a 60.3 WAR/41.3 WAR7/50.8 JAWS. His WAR was 17.9 higher than Mattingly. His WAR7 was 5.5 higher, and his JAWS was 11.7 higher.
What’s fascinating there is the argument for Mattingly is his prime. However, as viewed by the prism of WAR7 and JAWS, Hernandez had the better prime.
While the claim is Mattingly was the better hitter, again, the numbers don’t bear that out. Mattingly had a 127 OPS+ and 124 wRC+. Hernandez had a 128 OPS+ and a 131 wRC+.
We all know Hernandez was also the superior fielder. That means Hernandez was a better hitter, fielder, and leader.
Put another way, Mattingly doesn’t belong in the same conversation as Hernandez. As noted, he’s in a conversation with Adrian González.
The Hall of Fame flat out got it wrong. Omitting Hernandez in favor of Mattingly was an inexcusable error in judgment. The only hope is the next time Hernandez is eligible, this error is not repeated, and Hernandez is rightfully and finally inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame.
As anticipated, New York Mets starter Taijuan Walker opted out of his contract. Unlike the last time, more teams than just the Mets will come calling.
Walker opting out puts the Mets in an extremely difficult position. At times, he’s pitched like a number two. Other times, he’s pitched like a bullpen arm. No matter how you cut it, he has value.
Over the past two years, he’s 19-16 with a 3.98 ERA, 1.189 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9, and a 7.9 K/9. He accumulated a 3.1 WAR, 99 ERA+, and a 4.11 FIP.
He was an All-Star in 2021, and you could make the argument he could’ve been one in 2022. His first halves have been great, and the second halves lacking.
Taking the total picture into account, Walker ranks 39th among pitchers who have pitched over 300 innings the past two seasons. He’s also thrown the 39th most innings while making the 32nd most starts.
With starting pitching, availability is of paramount importance. Despite his past history, Walker showed an ability to take the ball every fifth day. We also saw a stronger pitcher in the second half of 2022 than he was in 2021.
This is where things get dicey for the Mets.
The Mets could reasonably believe Tylor Megill or David Peterson could replicate what Walker has provided while also believing each provides more upside. If they believe that, perhaps, they should let Walker go.
However, we do not know Megill’s durability and ability to be a starter for a full season. Peterson has shown durability and appears to be building strength to last a full season in the rotation.
Another factor with both was they entered Spring Training as pitching depth. If either or both are in the 2023 rotation that depth takes a hit, especially with Jose Butto likely being the sole upper level minors pitcher the Mets feel confidence in calling up.
The Mets need to balance that against just how much they can actually spend. Edwin Díaz just signed a record deal for a reliever. The Mets also have free agents in Chris Bassitt, Jacob deGrom, Seth Lugo, and Brandon Nimmo.
The Mets entered the offseason needing to rebuild an entire pitching staff – rotation and bullpen. That is going to cost a ton of money, and even with Steve Cohen, you have to imagine at some point, the Mets will need to save money here and there.
If the Mets lock in Walker, they’re keeping a good starter who may still yet have upside. It’s a move towards maintaining depth. It’s more certainty than upside, which is never a bad thing.
In the end, the Mets best decision might be to offer Walker the qualifying offer. If he accepts, great. If not, the Mets get a compensatory pick allowing them to pursue players like Trea Turner.
Overall, this is a good “problem” for the Mets to have. They either keep a good pitcher, or they get an asset to help them sign other players and/or build for the future.
This is a “problem” because Walker has been good and deserves a long term deal. The Mets have been better for having him, and no matter what happens fans and the organization should appreciate him and wish him well.
Maybe there was a time after the disastrous deal was first struck that we could see Edwin Díaz staying with the New York Mets for a decade. However, those thoughts completely went by the wayside.
Díaz’s first year with the Mets could not have gone worse. He lost his closer’s job that season, and he would subsequently admit the pressures of New York got to him.
After that poor first season, Díaz was much improved but never quite reliable. Case-in-point: he was lights out in the pandemic shortened season with a 1.75 ERA, but he still blew 40% of his save opportunities.
The 2022 season would be completely different in every way. Part of that is Steve Cohen was completely different than the Wilpons in every way.
It started in Spring Training with Jeremy Hefner finally honing Díaz’s mechanics. It was the return to Narco as the entrance music, which was part of the Mets fans re-embrace of him.
It wasn’t just the fans embrace of him. It was the entire Mets organization. It was with the aforementioned work from Hefner. It was also the analytics.
Mostly, it was Cohen. He has transformed the franchise. It’s not just about giving everyone the tools they need to succeed. Cohen is investing in the players as people too.
They may phrase from Cohen is he wants to let players know “they’re important to me.”
Players come and go for money for the most part. After all, baseball is a business. However, how players are treated largely dictates whether they want to stay or return. Its how teams can sign players to contracts and extensions before they hit the market.
With respect to Díaz, make no mistake. He returned because of the record setting contract. He agreed to a five year $102 million deal.
What’s notable is he signed it and didn’t take that to market. With the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees needing a closer, you couldn’t blame Díaz for wanting to test just how much more he would’ve received, and yes, he would’ve gotten it.
However, Díaz wanted to stay. The city which overwhelmed him came to embrace him. The petty ownership who interfered with medical decisions, changing players entrance songs, stealing Oakleys, and just about everything else gave way to Cohen.
Cohen let’s players know he cares. He gives them everything they need to succeed. When a player like Díaz wants to return, we see Cohen will make it happen.
Díaz was great in 2022 for the ways Cohen changed the organization. He wanted to return based on how the new organization treated him. He’s staying because Cohen paid him.
This is the Mets under Cohen. It’s glorious, and we cannot wait to see what he has in store for us next.
This was not the Noah Syndergaard New York Mets fans had come to know and love. Since the postseason started, and we really got to see Syndergaard again, this is not the man we once knew as Thor.
There are some reasons for that. For starters, after his Tommy John surgery, Syndergaard is throwing 95 MPH and under instead of his 100 MPH fastballs. He’s mixing up his pitchers more instead of using his sheer brawn and will to dominate opposing batters. To a certain extent, he seems far more mellow.
This isn’t the pitcher who announced himself to the world by buzzing Alcides Escobar and telling all of baseball he’s 60’6″ away. He’s also not the guy who tried to deliver a message (not really) to Chase Utley to protect Ruben Tejada who was long gone. Instead, now, he’s become a version of Ronald McDonald with his love letter to Utley.
Instead, now, Syndergaard says he wanted to catch the first pitch thrown by Utley at the World Series. As he would tell Tim Healey of Newsday, “I’ve always admired the way he’s played the game. He’s a tremendous talent and I’m glad to be able to put on the same uniform as him.” Again, this is not the Syndergaard we knew from his seven years with the Mets.
He’s not out there trolling the Phillie Phanatic. He’s not being bombastic in any way. His Twitter is much quieter than it used to be. He doesn’t quite have the same arm. Overall, this is a completely different person.
Perhaps, part of the reason why is we never really knew Syndergaard. In August, Syndergaard admitted he personally struggled with the “New York energy” saying, “That energy that can make New York so great and positive can also bite you in the butt a little bit, especially with what I’m going through right now, a dip in velocity. I’m still trying to rely on location, mixing things up. I felt like if I was doing that playing here, everything would just be highlighted.” (Zach Braziller, New York Post).
On that, Syndergaard isn’t really wrong. When he missed two starts against the Mets, fans noticed and mocked him. Maybe it was injury. Maybe he just couldn’t handle facing the team and former teammates he loved. We don’t know, and as we have seen over the past year with Syndergaard, we never really knew him like we thought we did. Then again, we never really know any of these professional athletes.
Certainly, we did not know the Syndergaard from Game 5 of the World Series. He pitched at a diminished velocity and took the loss after allowing two earned over 3+ innings. Again, this was not the guy who was great in the 2015 postseason and out-pitched Madison Bumgarner over seven innings in the 2016 Wild Card Game.
This is now a humble person with diminished velocity. The man who loved the big stage admits he wasn’t keen on returning to it. That said, he’s still out there pitching in a big market.
Who knows where Syndergaard goes from here? Maybe it is back with the Mets even though his leaving was messy. Maybe he regains his velocity. Perhaps, he finds his way to the bullpen. Whatever the case, we are seeing a different pitcher and person than the one we once knew, or better yet, thought we knew. In the end, all we can do is wish him luck and happiness as he tries to reclaim part of what once made him a great pitcher with the Mets.
For those New York Mets fans who watched Rafael Montero, we wouldn’t have been shocked if he was a part of Major League history. Certainly, we could have bought him doing what Lance McCullers did in allowing a record five homers in a World Series start.
Actually, that’s not true at all. By 2017, there was not one Mets fan alive who believed Montero would still be in the Major Leauges at this point. Really, most Mets fans had believed Montero would not only never come close to living up to his prospect status, but they also believed his career was essentially over.
As was par for the course, much of that had to do with the Mets organization. More specifically, there was Jeff Wilpon’s meddling in medical matters, and there was Terry Collins eternal mishandling of pitchers. As we can recall, Montero had complained of shoulder and elbow issues with the Mets claiming he was making it up, and Collins traveling to essentially tell him to “man up.”
Well, eventually, we would see Montero’s Mets career end when he had to undergo Tommy John surgery. After all the disappointment, he was finally free to pursue his career elsewhere. While he had one promising year with the Seattle Mariners, he returned to the enigmatic pitcher he always was. It would not be until he was traded to the Houston Astros that his career would finally take off (pun intended).
Back in April, when the Mets had their combined no-hitter against the Philadelphia Phillies, it was a shock the Mets used Joely Rodriguez. As shocked as we were to see Rodriguez, it was far more surprising to see the Astros use Montero in the eighth inning to try to keep the combined no-hitter intact.
Rafael Montero, 96mph ⛽️
And…🤫 pic.twitter.com/Nt5sFmt9u0
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) November 3, 2022
However, it wasn’t really a surprise for Astros fans. Montero has been phenomenal all season for them. He was one of the best relievers in all of baseball. Over 71 appearances, he was 5-2 with 14 saves, a 2.37 ERA, 1.024 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9, and a 9.2 K/9. He also had a 163 ERA+ and 2.64 FIP. In reality, he was better than any Mets reliever not named Edwin Diaz.
In this postseason, Montero has been great. Over nine appearances, he has a 1.00 ERA and a 0.889 WHIP. While it is coming as a reliever, you see what the Mets saw in him when they thought he was better than Jacob deGrom. The skill and execution is finally there. As a result, he has been great, and now, he is forever a part of Major League history.
History. #LevelUp
Cristian Javier, Bryan Abreu, Rafael Montero, and Ryan Pressly celebrate the combined no-hitter 🙌 pic.twitter.com/4XHaVl1Sx9
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) November 3, 2022
Now, the old excuse of he wouldn’t have done it here has been far too overused with the Mets. With Justin Turner, his career starting blossoming at the end of his Mets tenure. For Travis d’Arnaud, he actually was great with the Mets in 2015. Both and more could have done it with the Mets.
For Montero, the excuse might actually be applicable. As an organization, the Mets continuously stood in his way. The questioned whether he was really injured. They challenged him when he should have been healing or resting. Because of this Wilponian mixture of arrogance and ignorance, Montero would not be able to be the pitcher he could be until 2022.
That’s a sad fact for Montero. That said, he is a lesson in perseverance. Because he never quit, he finally found the right situation, and now, he will forever be a part of Major League history while Jeff Wilpon is history in baseball.