At this moment in time, with perhaps a very minor move or two, it would appear the Mets are done adding pieces this offseason. The different holes in the roster have been noted, but what we have not really seen done is an examination of the Mets decision making process. It is something which should be done more earnestly.
Dumping Swarzak’s And Not Frazier’s Contract
Purportedly, one of the selling points of the trade to obtain Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz was to move the contracts of Jay Bruce (2 years, $28 million) and Anthony Swarzak ($8.5 million). While moving Bruce was certainly understandable, it was curious the Mets moved Swarzak instead of Todd Frazier ($9 million).
As we have seen relievers tend to be mercurial, and it is quite possible with a healthier season, Swarzak could have been much more productive in 2019. Depending on the moves the team made in the offseason, he reasonably could have been the last man in the bullpen.
As for Frazier, we have seen the Mets make his spot on the roster tenuous. Pete Alonso appears poised to be the first baseman sooner rather than later, and the Mets brought in Jed Lowrie with the purpose of playing him everyone, albeit at different positions across teh diamond.
Seeing there being a multitude of free agents who could play third base, wouldn’t it have been better to move Frazier over Swarzak? As we saw, the Mets could have replaced Frazier with Lowrie. Other options included Mike Moustakas, Marwin Gonzalez, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Neil Walker. The Mets could have accomplished the same versatility they sought to accomplish by signing multiple players from this group, and they could have had platoon options over Frazier’s bat. It’s noteworthy with the exception of Moustakas these are switch hitters making them more useful bench players than a player who has never played a reserve role in his career.
Why Didn’t McNeil Play Winter Ball?
The very minute the Mets obtained Cano, it was clear Jeff McNeil was going to play some outfield. Now, it could be argued the amount of outfield he played depended entirely on the other moves made this offseason, but nevertheless, the plan was always to have McNeil see some time in the outfield.
Considering McNeil played exactly 17.0 innings in left field in Triple-A last year and just 56.1 innings in the outfield in his six years in the minors, you would have thought the team would have found a spot for him to play winter ball to hone his craft. After all, the team did try to get Dominic Smith time playing outfield in the Dominican Winter League (it didn’t work out).
Now, because the team couldn’t make any moves to improve the outfield, they are going to play McNeil in left all Spring with the hopes he can get up to speed over the course of less than two months worth of games. It should also be noted this decision is moving Michael Conforto from his best defensive position to right, and it is forcing Brandon Nimmo to center, a position the Mets have been reticent to play him at the Major League level.
Why Trade Plawecki if d’Arnaud Wasn’t Ready?
In his four year career, we have all seen Kevin Plawecki‘s warts, but through it all, he has established himself as a viable backup catcher at the Major League level. While the Mets may have felt the need to choose between him and Travis d’Arnaud, that decision would not have been forced upon the Mets until the moment d’Arnaud was ready to play. As we see now, d’Arnaud is not ready to play.
Instead of keeping Plawecki, they traded him for an underwhelming return in the form of Sam Haggerty and Walker Lockett. The only player of value in the trade was Lockett, and he had been previoulsy traded for Ignacio Feliz, an 18 year old who signed for an $85,000 bonus out of the Dominican Republic two years ago.
Instead of hedging their bets wisely, the team instead signed Devin Mesoraco. Say what you will about Plawecki, but he is far superior to Mesoraco. He’s a better pitch framer, and he is the better hitter (93 to 92 wRC+). And before anyone invokes Jacob deGrom, you need to explain how Mesoraco was the reason why deGrom was so great.
Where Are the Extensions?
There has been a growing trend in baseball for teams to lock up their young players. For example, the Yankees have already locked up Luis Severino and Aaron Hicks, and they are working on locking up Dellin Betances as well. These actions promise to keep the Yankees core together while keeping them cost controlled to what promises to be a team friendly discount.
At the moment, the Mets have free agency concerns of their own. After 2019, Zack Wheeler will be a free agent. After 2020, deGrom will be a free agent. After 2021, a significant portion of the Mets current Mets core will be free agents with Conforto, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz will be headed to free agency.
We know deGrom has put himself on the front burner, but what are the Mets doing besides him? After all, if CAA is in town, it means the team can negotiate extensions for both deGrom and Syndergaard. There is also nothing preventing them from reaching out to the agents for the other players.
Really, this is the biggest part of the offseason which needs examination. What exactly is the plan going forward? Do the Mets have intentions of building something much sustaining, or is this a one year gamble? Are the Mets playing things out in 2019 and reassessing. At this moment, we don’t know. Hopefully, the Mets do.
Heading into Spring Training, the Mets have continuously promised to carry the best 25 players on their roster regardless of any service time issues. Considering prevailing wisdom, and the Mets adding plenty of first base depth with Todd Frazier, J.D. Davis, Dominic Smith, and even Robinson Cano playing first, you wondered if it was going to be mere lip service so as to avoid a grievance.
Jed Lowrie has a lingering knee issue. Should he be unable to go on Opening Day, Frazier is going to be the team’s third baseman. If he’s at third, the path for Alonso has become much clearer. With the way Alonso has begun Spring Training tearing the cover off the ball, the Mets hands may be forced in putting him on the Opening Day roster.
Pete Alonso my GOODNESS pic.twitter.com/RO6IiLdhot
— Jacob Resnick (@Jacob_Resnick) February 23, 2019
Still, you have to question the Mets wisdom in doing that. If Alonso is on the Opening Day roster, he’s likely going to be on the roster for the full season. If that is the case, the Mets would be just giving away one year of control over Alonso, and that would be at a time when he is in his prime when he would be at his most expensive.
Seeing how the Jacob deGrom extension discussions are transpiring, the Mets should not be flippant about one year of control over a player. Remember, Brodie Van Wagenen was deGrom’s agent putting him in the unique position of knowing exactly the bare minimum of what deGrom would want in an extension. Even with Van Wagenen having that important inside information, the Mets still could not handle extension discussions without it being a distraction entering Spring Training.
But it’s not just the Mets. Every team values that year of control. It’s why the Cubs held back Kris Bryant in the beginning of the 2015 season. We will see the same this year with players like Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. Smart and well run teams see that year as a real asset. If you’re a smart team, and you want that player on your Opening Day roster, you strike a deal.
That’s what the Phillies did with Scott Kingery. Before he played even one MLB game, the Phillies signed him to a six year $24 million contract with three succeeding team options. The carrot was Kingery making more than the league minimum over the first few years, and it provided him some certainty going forward.
If the Mets truly want Alonso on the Opening Day roster, they have to strike a Kingery type of deal with him. That doesn’t mean the Kingery salary is something that should be the framework for an Alonso deal, nor does it mean Alonso would be willing to entertain a discussion. Still, the Mets dangling the carrot of being the Opening Day first baseman and not giving someone like Dom a chance could be enough to bring Alonso to the table.
Fact is, if you’re not pushing for this, the Mets aren’t pursuing every avenue to make the 2019 team better, nor are they looking to create some cost certainty for this club. At the end of the day, if the Mets truly want Alonso on the Opening Day roster, they need to push for a Kingery extension now. Absent that, they should be telling Alonso to find an apartment in Syracuse for at least a few weeks because that’s what smart teams do with players they view as the cornerstone of their franchise.
For the first time since 2004, David Wright is not in Spring Training with an eye towards being the Mets third baseman. Sadly, that went by the wayside when he played his last few games as a member of the Mets last year. Since that time, Wright has joined the front office, and he has not been the typical fixture in camp. Surely, the players notice it, especially Noah Syndergaard at lunch time.
But while people may feel it, there does seem to be a level of business as usual. After all, Robinson Cano has Wright’s old locker, and the third base position is a battle of sorts between Todd Frazier and Jed Lowrie. Really, there is a lot going on right now. With all that is going on, there is a question about how much you have noticed Wright’s absence.
Michael Baron
There’s definitely a different vibe at camp this year. Is it because David Wright isn’t there? Or is it because there’s a new order? Maybe it’s a little bit of both. I feel like Wright’s there in spirit, and his presence is irreplaceable. But I also think he’s left behind an example for everyone in the room to follow going forward, it feels like a new chapter has begun with the Mets, for better or for worse.
Pete McCarthy (OABT)
It’s hard to say his absence is felt when he has often been injured and rehabbing the last few seasons. Last September was truly special and showed all that Wright gave to the franchise both on and off the field. Hopeful that a player or players can truly ascend to a leadership role now that he is retired and there is no hope of the Captain making a grand return.
Metstradamus (Metstradamus Blog)
That’s probably a better question to ask somebody on the team, since they know the difference. For me, I’m of the mind of “keep moving forward”, and that we care too much about nostalgia in general as a society. (I don’t care which shows premiered 27 years ago today so stop putting it in my Facebook timeline!!!) So while I think of David Wright fondly, I’m ready to look forward and not backward.
Greg Prince (Faith and Fear in Flushing)
The last couple of years prepared us well for our separation from David Wright as an active player. Still, he was such a constant for so long. I always assumed the earliest-reporting employee to St. Lucie every spring was greeted by David bouncing a ball against a wall, waiting for somebody to unlock the door to the facility.
Given his role as a special advisor, I imagine we’ll see him around in some capacity, which is comforting. May he find the new work rewarding and may fans never stop appreciating all he gave this franchise.
Tim Ryder (MMO)
To be honest, no. In my head I’ve already turned that page. This roster is full of talented guys, some of whom learned how to conduct themselves as major leaguers from David Wright. I have a feeling his impact on this clubhouse will continue to manifest itself over the next few seasons. Will I miss him on the field? Always.
Bre S (That Mets Chick)
Have I felt Wright’s absence from the team during spring training? I can’t say I have. That is a better question to ask the players. I can see from videos and players quotes that there is a different and fresh vibe from this team. Wright is no longer on the field with them being their leader and caption. Other players like Michael Conforto, Jacob deGrom, and Brandon Nimmo all know they need to step up in 2019. Whether Mets fans like it or not, the team must move on without Wright being in the clubhouse everyday. This reminds me of 2005. Mike Piazza‘s final season with the Mets. Going into 2006, bright and young new faces emerged the voices and leaders for the Mets: David Wright and Jose Reyes. Similar to 2006, a new leader for the Mets will emerge in 2019 and I can’t wait to see who that is.
James Schapiro (Shea Bridge Report)
I’ll notice the hole at third base once games start. Third base the last few years has almost been defined by “waiting for David Wright,” so now that David isn’t coming back anymore I expect the third-base position to have a completely different dynamic. We have Frazier, who was so-so last year; Lowrie, who can really hit…but may already be hurt? Jeff McNeil, who can also really hit but is unproven and might also be an outfielder; J.D. Davis, who seems like a complete mystery…David Wright’s absence, to me, is going to make itself felt most in the fact that when we go through third base options, there won’t be that pause we used to make, and no one will say, “well, this is just the backup plan until Wright comes back.”
Mets Daddy
Surprisingly, I have not noticed Wright’s absence. There are a number of reasons why with Pete Alonso fighting for a first base job, deGrom still going without an extension, and the fact there are still big name free agents on the board like Bryce Harper, Dallas Keuchel, and Craig Kimbrel. There is a lot of noise in baseball right now, and it is overshadowing Wright not being a part of the team anymore.
I anticipate I will first feel his absence on Opening Day when Howie Rose is calling out the players’ names. His name will be a noticeable omission. If the Mets are fighting for a postseason spot, I know I will certainly notice Wright’s absence, and I will likely bemoan who Wright is not going to get a chance to get his World Series ring.
While I have not quite noticed Wright’s absence, I do notice the good work from the fine people who contribute to this roundtable. Hopefully, you notice it as well, and you take the time to read their excellent work.
Far too often, we lionize professional athletes. At times, they disappoint us, and sometimes, they lift us up. The thing is whether or not they know, athletes can leave a profound impact on our lives, and when that player leaves, it certainly hits home.
It hit home when Mats Zuccarello was traded to the Dallas Stars.
I’m far from alone. We saw Henrik Lundqvist break down when talking about it. There have been a number of Rangers fans upset as well because Zuccarello was a fan favorite. For me, it was a bit more than that.
My wife had a very difficult pregnancy with my oldest. When my son was born, he wasn’t a preemie, but he wasn’t far off either. When he was born, his Apgar score was two . . . two. Thankfully, he would be okay.
One thing about babies born this early is they’re small. It’d be a while before my son grew into the newborn sized clothes, even longer to get to three months. That left his Rangers onesies quite big on him. It was a slight issue because he wore them often.
Whatever the reason, during those sleepless nights as he slowly made his way towards that magic 10 pound mark, he really enjoyed hockey. He was on my lap during that epic Olympic game against Russia, and he was on my lap during that magical run to the Stanley Cup Finals.
The ritual was the same. I’d get home from work and get him in a onesie for the game. We watched through all the ups and downs in that incredible run partially driven by how well the Zuccarello-Brassard-Pouliot line played. It was Zuccarello’s two goal game in Game 6 against the Habs which propelled the Rangers to the Finals.
That run would be the first time I bonded with my son on a sports level. He was excited whenever I celebrated, and he’d clap in these moments. Many of those moments were directly related to Zuccarello’s play on the ice.
Fast forward a few years. At three, we decided to sign up my son for ice skating lessons. The reason was as simple as he was bouncing off the wall, and we wanted to find him an outlet on the weekends. Ice skating lessons for his age were available.
At three, he was still one of the smallest guys on the ice. Even with him being smaller, he picked up on things right away. He continued to get better and better.
It’s been over five years since my son was born. That little guy has now more than caught up to the kids his age. He’s actually one of the taller ones, which is a far cry from where he once was.
However, with him having started skating earlier than most in my area, he finds himself as the little guy on the ice. The little guy in his Rangers jersey.
Admittedly, I do allow myself to dream. Sometimes, I look at that little guy with a left-handed shot skating through much bigger players, and I see the next Zuccarello.
After all, my son’s a tough little guy who’s beaten the odds, so if this is something he wants for himself, I wouldn’t count him out.
And I don’t count him out too because I’ve seen Zuccarello play. I’ve seen him overcome the odds created due to his size, draft status, and even his home country of Norway not exactly being an NHL hotbed. Despite all of that, he became a good NHL player. He became a fan favorite. He showed us all anything is possible.
This is what Zuccarello gave to me during his Rangers career. He gave me a bonding experience with my newborn son, and eventually, he gave us a role model for a little guy playing against much bigger players. He fortified the faith and belief I’ve always had in my son.
Honestly, although he never knew it, Zuccarello gave me a lot during his time as a Ranger. I appreciate it more than he could know, and I wish him the very best in Dallas.
Today, we would not have seen Jerry Blevins come to the Mets, at least not in the fashion he did. On the eve of the 2015 season, the Mets would trade Matt den Dekker to the Nationals for Blevins. With that trade, the upstart Mets would have the LOOGY they needed to challenge the Nationals for the division. Looking at the way things are now, that trade would never happen today.
We can be thankful things were different in 2015.
Blevins Mets career would get off to a great start. In April, he made seven appearances pitching five scoreless innings. During that stretch, he got out a who’s who of players Mets fans have loved to hate – Bryce Harper, Ryan Howard, Freddie Freeman, and Chase Utley. With that, Blevins certainly endeared himself to Mets fans.
Unfortunately, Blevins would get hit with a come-backer breaking his arm. While rehabbing, he’d slip on a curb and break his arm again meaning he’d miss out on the Mets surprising 2015 run to the World Series, a run he’d help get started with his performance in April. He would not miss the next run as he would be a key member of the Mets bullpen in 2016.
During the 2016 season, Blevins was much more than the LOOGY we all imagined him to be. No, Blevins was a pitcher who could get both right and left-handed batters out. He became a guy you could entrust the 7th or 8th inning. During that season, the Mets had a very small margin of error, and his pitching in the same bullpen with Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia helped pull the Mets over the finish line and into the top Wild Card spot.
Blevins contributions were immeasurably important for a team who claimed a Wild Card spot by just one game. One or two slip-ups, and the Mets may not have even been in contention for a spot. That goes double in July and August when the Mets were teetering, and Blevins responded with a 1.88 ERA.
While Blevins would continue to pitch well for the Mets in 2017 and 2018, the Mets would not be able to continue what was a two year run. In total, Blevins was a Met for four years, and in that time, he was 14-4 with four saves, a 3.38 ERA, 1.269 WHIP, and a 10.8 K/9.
Breaking it down, his K/9 is the third best all-time among Mets relievers. When you consider Tug McGraw, John Franco, and Billy Wagner, he’s in the top five Mets left-handed relievers all time. Really, when you look at pure left-handed set-up men, the discussion is between him and Pedro Feliciano for the best in Mets history. That’s a truly amazing feat.
But Blevins was more than that. He was as fan friendly a player as you will see. He hosted a Fantasy Movie League for fans to participate. He had a fun Twitter account. He hosted a baseball camp. He had a good sense of humor, was self effacing, and really was just a great guy on top of being very good at what he did:
They sent the ball straight to Cooperstown. https://t.co/ZKALlvQGP4
— Jerry Blevins (@jerryblevins) August 17, 2018
In the end, Blevins will not just be missed because he was one of the best relievers in Mets history. He will be missed because he was a fun guy to root for during his time in Queens. He was that rare player who elevated his game in New York. He now returns to Oakland a new father looking to do for the Athletics what he did for the Mets.
For many reasons, Mets fans wish him the best of luck.
With the way the free agent market has played out, Manny Machado signed an arguably under-value contract after position players reported to Spring Training. Many cite top end free agents like Bryce Harper, Dallas Keuchel, Marwin Gonzalez, and Craig Kimbrel still being on the market as a sure sign there is a problem with free agency.
Those making that claim are right, but the problems do go deeper than that.
Take for example Jose Bautista. Last year, the Mets literally signed Bautista while he was sitting on his couch. He’d fly to New York, and he would prove himself to still be a capable Major League player.
In his time with the Mets, Bautista was an above league average hitter (104 OPS+). In 83 games, he hit .204/.351/.367 with 13 doubles, nine homers, and 37 RBI. He’d play all over the diamond as well, and he would actually play well defensively. Bautista was actually a 1 DRS in 109.2 innings in left. He was serviceable elsewhere with a -2 DRS in right and a -1 DRS at third base. He would show himself to be quite a versatile defender also playing 14.2 innings at first and even an inning at second base.
What is interesting is when Bautista was traded to the Phillies, who were still fighting for a postseason spot, Bautista raised his game. In 27 games for the Phillies, Bautista would hit .244/.404/.467 with four doubles, two homers, and six RBI.
Now, there is no question Bautista’s skills have diminished. He is far from the All-Star and MVP candidate he was in 2015. Still, not all of his skills have eroded. He still has a good eye at the plate, and he has maintained an excellent walk rate (16.8 percent). He had an above-average .175 ISO and 13.1 percent HR/FB. Ultimately, this is a player who still has power and a flair for the dramatic:
At this stage in his career, the 38 year old Bautista is no more than a bench or utility player. He is a power source off your bench. As he showed last year, he still has something in the tank. Really, in a normal free agent market you would see a team signing him to a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training.
Remember, Bautista showed last year he was not above that. He signed such a deal with the Braves, and he spent time in the minors to prove himself as a third baseman. It didn’t work there, but it did with the Mets and the Phillies in a different role. Bautista could work well for another team in 2019 if just given the chance.
From a Mets perspective, you could see why they haven’t brought him back. They have Gregor Blanco and Rajai Davis fighting for outfield spots. Younger players like J.D. Davis and to a certain extent Dominic Smith are fighting for a Major League bench spot. There’s also Dilson Herrera, Gavin Cecchini, Will Toffey, Luis Guillorme, and David Thompson who could be fighting for a role not just for the Major League team but also the Syracuse Triple-A team.
To that extent, you understand the Mets not bringing back Bautista. But that’s just the Mets. What are the other 29 Major League team’s excuse?
With the Mets obtaining Robinson Cano, they are hoping they are getting a game changing bat to hit in the middle of the lineup. If he is that, we should be hitting 20+ homers both this year and in the ensuing years. After hitting 204 homers for the Yankees, he would become the fifth player to hit 30+ homers for both the Mets and the Yankees. Can you name the four who have done it? Good luck!
Darryl Strawberry Carlos Beltran Curtis Granderson Robin Ventura
In what seems to be a right of passage for any Mets player, Jed Lowrie is dealing with a knee issue. While the team is giving their usual spiel about how this is not a big concern, they are also sending Lowrie for an MRI. Time will tell if this is just a Spring Training ache and pain or if this is something more serious.
On the one hand, you could well argue this is what a team should expect when they sign a soon-t0-be 35 year old middle infielder. Older players are less durable, and as a result, tend to suffer more injuries. With that being the case, you could use this as a basis to criticize the Mets, but you shouldn’t.
Once the team made the trade for Robinson Cano, they were left with having to decide how to handle the construction of their team. On the one hand, they could have looked at Cano and saw a player who absent suspension hasn’t played fewer games than 2006. They could have looked at Jeff McNeil as a capable back-up for the 36 year old in the event Cano does break down, or possibly, faces another suspension.
Still, the team would have been faced with dealing with a 33 year old Todd Frazier. For his part, Frazier has typically been a healthy player. However, with the Mets, he would have the first two DL stints in his career. If this were a sign of things to come, it would be difficult to have McNeil backing up both Cano and Frazier simultaneously.
Looking at it, this left the Mets with a question how to properly build depth. Astutely, Brodie Van Wagenen signed [his former client] Lowrie to serve as that depth. In Lowrie, the Mets were getting an All-Star who hit .267/.353/.448 with 37 doubles, a triple, 23 homers, and 99 RBI (120 OPS+) while playing for the A’s last year. In Lowrie, the Mets obtained a player who could probably be an everyday player for any of the 30 Major League teams.
With Lowrie, the Mets have a play who can play second or third base. It gave the team options at those positions as well as first base with Frazier’s and Cano’s ability to play there. Without him, the Mets are back at square one with Cano and Frazier, two All-Stars who are good defenders at their positions. Without him, they still have plenty of options at first with Peter Alonso, J.D. Davis, and the overlooked Dominic Smith.
The team still has the option to move McNeil back to the infield to buttress the infield depth.
Overall, even if Lowrie goes down, the team has the ability to sustain that injury. If it was Cano or Frazier who went down with injury instead, the team would have had Lowrie. That is exactly why you sign Lowrie, and that is why even if this injury is more severe than expected (as is the Mets way), the team has already been proven right in signing him.
Through the first seven years of his career, Manny Machado has accumulated has been a four time All-Star, and he has won two Gold Gloves. He has three top 10 MVP finishes includes two top five finishes. He has accumulated 33.8 bWAR in his career with 23.2 of that coming over the past four seasons. Since his debut in 2012, he ranks 15th overall in the majors in fWAR, and he ranks ninth since 2015.
This is all Machado has accomplished before his age 26 season, or put another way, this is what Machado has accomplished prior to hitting the prime years of his Major League career.
It should be noted Machado has accumulated a higher WAR than Giancarlo Stanton over the past four years. Stanton signed his deal when he was entering his age 25 season. At that point in his career, Stanton had 21.3 WAR, which is less than the 28.0 WAR Machado had accumulated up until that point of his career.
The Marlins rewarded him with a 13 year $325 million contract extension. As we now know teams were hesitant to give Machado a deal of similar length despite Machado being the better player playing a premium defensive position. But this isn’t just about Stanton and the deal the small market Marlins soon regretted and moved for pennies on the dollar.
For a moment, we should put aside comparisons to any one particular player’s contract. After all, there are plenty of examples available from Chris Davis to Albert Pujols to show how teams do not make good decisions on players. On the converse, there are plenty of contracts were players have signed at massive discounts to the level of production they provide. Instead, let’s look at Fangraphs‘ analysis of what the cost/WAR is for a player:
| fWAR | Cost/WAR | Value | |
| 2012 | 1.2 | $6.2 | $7.44 |
| 2013 | 5.0 | $7.2 | $36.00 |
| 2014 | 2.3 | $7.7 | $17.71 |
| 2015 | 6.6 | $9.6 | $63.36 |
| 2016 | 6.3 | $7.2 | $45.36 |
| 2017 | 2.6 | $10.5 | $27.30 |
| 2018 | 6.2 | $11.1* | $68.82 |
| Career | 30.2 | $265.99 |
* Estimated
Looking at it that way, through the first seven years of his Major League career, Machado has been worth $265.99 million to his team. This means, on average, he has been worth $38.0 million per season. If you were to assume Machado put up a similar level of production over the next 10 years, his contract should be worth 10 years $380 million.
Now, if you were to strip away his age 19 season where he played just 51 games and accumulated a 1.6 WAR, Machado has played six full seasons with a 29.0 WAR over that span. Looking at his six full seasons, on average, Machado has been worth $43.1 million per season. Using that valuation, Machado’s 10 year deal should have been worth a total of $431 million.
Keep in mind, that number may be light as well.
There are two factors to consider here. First, we are basing this off the production Machado has had prior to hitting his prime. Considering how teams are purportedly looking to pay players for what they will do and not for what they have done, you could argue Machado deserves more than $431 million based upon what he will do in his prime seasons.
Another factor is since 2012, the price per fWAR has risen. Recently, Major League Baseball has seen record revenues in each of the past 16 seasons. Year-in and year-out, baseball is making more money than the previous season, which in turn means, the owners have more money to allocate to payroll.
Looking at things from that perspective, Machado does not even need to maintain a certain level of production to be worth a perspective $40+ million a year salary. Looking at Fangraphs chart, the value of fWAR went from $5.4 million in 2007 to $10.5 in 2017. That’s almost double the amount.
Let’s say over the next 10 years, the cost per WAR only increases by 25 percent. That would mean the value per WAR would be $13.9 million. If that was the case, Machado would only need a 3.1 WAR player at his age 35 season to earn a $43.1 million salary. Of course, that is just for the value of that year and not the entire contract.
Really, breaking it down, Machado has signed a massively discounted deal with the San Diego Padres for the value he provides on the field. That’s based on factual and objective data. Remember that the next time Steve Phillips of MLB Network Radio says the system isn’t broken or Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated and MLB Network says free agency is merely “recalibrated.”
Assuming the Mets carry five bench spots, which is the norm for a National League team, the race for the last spot on the bench became much more crowded and complicated with the team’s signing of Adeiny Hechavarria. That question becomes further complicated when you question just what exactly the Mets real intentions are with Peter Alonso.
Assuming Alonso begins the season in Triple-A, the Mets already have bench spots allocated to Travis d’Arnaud and Keon Broxton. One of Juan Lagares or Jeff McNeil is going to play everyday meaning the other is going to be on the bench. That is three bench spots spoken for with two remaining. It will be interesting to see how this shakes out.
Considering the Mets parted with a package headlined by Luis Santana in what has been an oft criticized trade, you could see the pressure to carry J.D. Davis. Aside from the pressure, whether it be real or imagined, Davis does have the ability to play both corner infield spots adequately, and despite his deficiencies out there, the does have outfield experience.
The real positive for Davis is the power he could provide off the bench, but in order for that to be realized, he is going to have to increase the launch angle in his swing and his corresponding high ground ball rates. There is also a real question whether Chili Davis is the hitting coach to get him to realize his full power potential.
If the Mets are looking for a versatile infielder who can play the outfield, there is forgotten man T.J. Rivera. Rivera missed last season due to Tommy John surgery, but reports this Spring have been overly positive. While we know Rivera is not a particularly good defender, the Mets also know Rivera can be trusted to start at any position over a long stretch. Between the 2017 season and the World Baseball Classic, we have also seen him able to raise his game in big games.
The issue both players have is neither plays shortstop. For that matter, neither does Jed Lowrie, which arguably led to the Mets signing Hechavarria to a minor league deal. The one thing we do know with Hechavarria is he can play shortstop and play it well. Over the last four seasons combined, he has amassed a 26 DRS. The problem with him is he can’t hit as evidenced by his career 72 wRC+.
Hitting was also an issue for Luis Guillorme. In his brief time with the Mets, he was only able to muster a 53 wRC+ in 35 games. That is partially because Guillorme received uneven playing time. It is also because he has never been considered to be a great hitter. Still, there are two factors in Guillorme’s favor. First, like Hechavarria, he is a good defender. Second, Guillorme did show himself to be an adept pinch hitter last year hitting .273/.467/.364 in 15 pinch hitting appearances.
Now, if the Mets are looking for a more offensive oriented middle infielder who could play shortstop, the team does have Gavin Cecchini. Heading into last season, Cecchini had worked on his swing, and it had paid dividends with him hitting .294/.342/.468 in 30 games for Las Vegas before fouling a ball off his leg effectively ending his season. If Cecchini shows he is able to hit the same way, he could make a case for a bench spot for himself.
Standing in Cecchini’s way is his not being on the 40 man roster and his shortstop defense having pushed him to second base. The same could also be true for Dilson Herrera. For his part, Herrera was never truly considered anything more than a second baseman and that was before his shoulder injury. That shoulder injury cost him some of his offensive output until he rediscovered his stroke last year hitting .297/.367/.465 for the Reds Triple-A affiliate.
One other overlooked name for the Opening Day bench is Dominic Smith. If Alonso were to start the year in Triple-A, the Mets would have to find playing time for Alonso, Gregor Blanco, Rajai Davis, Rymer Liriano, and Tim Tebow between first base, three infield spots, and DH. Even with how down the team may be on Smith, it is difficult to believe they would leave him in Syracuse to fight for playing time between those three spots.
Instead, the team could carry him on the Major League roster. Certainly, Smith reporting to camp with not just his keeping the weight off but also adding muscle, helps improve his chances. His being a good defensive first baseman capable of playing left field in a pinch should also help him.
Of course, Smith would have to compete with all of the aforementioned players as well as Danny Espinosa just to claim a bench spot. He would also have to count on the team not putting Alonso on the Opening Day roster, which judging from the improvements Alonso has made, is not a safe assumption.
Really, when breaking it down, the Mets have plenty of options to fill out their bench, and ultimately for this team to reach its full potential, they are going to have to find the right mix of players to complement their everyday players. Hopefully, everyone comes to play making this as difficult a decision as the Mets will have all year.