With the NCAA Tournament in Day Two and Opening Day less than a week away, college basketball fans will be rooting for their favorite teams and/or their alma mater. Personally, this means I will be rooting for Seton Hall to go on a run like they did in 1989 and hope beyond hope they don’t get screwed by a phantom foul call.
As a Mets fan, well, judging from past history, you should just be rooting for two teams from the same conference to make the Final Four. Since the field expanded to 64 teams, the Mets have made six postseasons, and in five of those six years, two teams from the same conference made the Final Four. That list grows to six of six if we use current conference alignment.
Can you name all of the teams who made the Final Four in each of the years the Mets made the postseason? Good luck!
Last year, the Braves were the surprise team in baseball winning the NL East by an eight game margin over the Nationals. This is a young talented group who has the talent to not only win the division again next year but also go on a run like the Greg Maddux–Tom Glavine–John Smoltz Braves teams.
Freddie Freeman has become an MVP caliber player. Josh Donaldson has won an MVP and has the sixth highest fWAR in all of baseball since 2015. What’s scary to think is they’re not even the Braves best player. That honor probably goes to Ronald Acuna, who is the reigning Rookie of the Year and a real MVP candidate.
What is scary for the Braves is their roster beyond these three is quite questionable.
One of the reasons the Braves were successful last season was Nick Markakis having his first All-Star campaign. It was a turn back the clock season for him as he had been a below league average hitter over the previous five seasons. His 2.6 bWAR was higher than what he posted over his prior two seasons. Expecting him to repeat his 2018 season seems dubious in his age 35 season.
Markakis is not the only 35 year old expected to be a big part of the team. The Braves brought back Brian McCann, who is coming off a season where he hit .212/.301/.339. That’s a drop off from the .271/.332/.444 Kurt Suzuki provided the team last year.
This is nothing to say of Donaldson who had an injury plagued season last year. When he was on the field, he produced. However, it should be noted he did take a step back. From 2015 – 2017, he had a 154 wRC+ at the plate. Last year, he had a 117 wRC+. Defensively, he’s gone from an 11 DRS in 2015 to a 1 DRS last year.
That’s actually a step back from what Johan Camargo provided. Last year, Camargo was a 115 wRC+ at the plate with a 7 DRS at third. With Donaldson, you have the name value, but you lose the upside the 25 year old could provide.
On the topic of the Braves young players, by and large, they have not yet panned out the way many people have expected.
Ozzie Albies did have a 3.8 WAR last season, but he had some issues. For starters, the switch-hitter hit .231/.283/.412 against left-handed pitching (84 wRC+). With the right-handed pitching in the division, he is completely over-matched making him not much more than a good defensive second baseman for the majority of the time.
Ender Inciarte is also a defensive first player, albeit a very inconsistent one. Whatever the reason, Inciarte has been good in odd numbered seasons and Gold Glove caliber in even numbered seasons. For Inciarte to have value, he needs to be a Gold Glover as he already below league average offense has dropped from a 100 wRC+ in 2015 t0 90 last season.
The biggest enigma has been Dansby Swanson. The Braves had purportedly stole him from the Diamondbacks for Shelby Miller. The problem was Swanson has not quite panned out as expected. Last year was a career best year for him, which makes his prospects all the more dubious as he only had an 80 wRC+. He was very good defensively meaning the Braves up-the-middle defense is quite good but very, very questionable at the plate.
In some ways, in what promises to be a very tough National League East, the Braves are going to be reliant on their young pitching to make the difference in the division. Now, there are times this does work like 2003 with the Florida Marlins and 2015 with the New York Mets.
Mike Foltynewicz was the teams’ best pitcher last year, and it’s questionable if he can be that next year. His .251 BABIP was much lower than the .303 he has yielded in his career. If he reverts back to career norms, he may look more like the below average league pitcher (93 ERA+) he had been over the prior two seasons.
The Braves second starter, Sean Newcomb, has also roughly been a league average pitcher (103 ERA+) in his career. Same goes for Kevin Gausman (102 ERA+). That is also what Julio Teheran has been since 2016. That puts a lot of pressure on Touki Toussaint, a pitcher who Baseball America projects to be a middle of the rotation starter partially due to his control problems.
Ultimately, when you break the Braves down, this is a very pedestrian starting rotation, albeit one with plenty of upside. Their top two relievers, Arodys Vizcaino and A.J. Minter, have durability concerns. They’re relying on older veterans to be what they once were, and they’re hoping defensive minded players can unlock offensive potential they have not yet unlocked in over two years in the majors.
If the Braves figure it out, they’re a scary team. However, it’s also possible last year was as good as it gets. That should put them well in the mix for the division and the Wild Cards, but it also likely leaves them one or two pieces short from the postseason.
The Philadelphia Phillies had a busy offseason to significantly improve their ballclub, and as a result Fangraphs has the Phillies as the second best team in the division with a 48.3 percent chance of making the postseason. On paper, there is a lot to get excited about with the Phillies.
By signing Andrew McCutchen and Bryce Harper, the Phillies have added two potential Hall of Famer outfielders. With David Robertson, the Phillies have added a closer with World Series experience. Beyond that, the Phillies have vastly improved a MLB worst defense (-146 DRS).
Rhys Hoskins has moved from left field (-24 DRS) to first base. While McCutchen is no longer a center fielder, he was a good corner outfielder last year (2 DRS). In place of Scott Kingery (-6 DRS) at short, the team has Jean Segura (5 DRS). That is a significantly improved defense, especially if Harper, Cesar Hernandez, and Odubel Herrera return to their 2017 levels defensively.
This should make the Phillies pitching better, but it’s not a foolproof measure to improve the Phillies pitching, which is one of their biggest question marks heading into the season.
Atop the Phillies rotation was Aaron Nola, who actually had a higher WAR than Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer last year. At 26, it would seem like this is where he career takes off. It’s also possible Nola’s .251 BABIP and 82.5 percent strand rate is not repeatable, and his true talent level is the roughly league average pitcher (106 ERA+) he had been over the prior two seasons.
The Phillies number two starter, Jake Arrieta, is not the pitcher he once was. After a strong start to the season, he had a 5.04 ERA in the second half last year. That’s all the more troubling when you consider Arrieta is 33, has had a 3.50+ ERA in each of the past two seasons, and has typically been a second half pitcher in his career.
Behind their top two, the Phillies next three starters had ERA of 4.36 and above with an ERA+ of 95 and below. With the J.T. Realmuto trade, the Phillies do not have the organizational depth to call up a Sixto Sanchez to help bolster the rotation.
Speaking of Realmuto, he is no doubt a tremendous hitter, and he should be even better hitting in Citizen’s Bank Park instead of Marlins Park. Still, he’s not going to help his pitchers the same way Jorge Alfaro did. According to Stat Corner, Realmuto has historically been one of the worst pitch framers in baseball while Alfaro was average.
Now, Baseball Prospectus doesn’t have Realmuto that low, it did have Alfaro as the ninth best pitch framer last year. That’s going to hurt a pitching staff which was already the Phillies biggest question mark to enter the season.
Another significant issue is Gabe Kapler‘s leadership. Early in the season, his communication with players was put into question with Nick Williams complaining about how computers were driving the decisions. Recent reports indicated part of the Phillies falling out of contention last year was the team playing Fortnight during games. The only player who did anything about it, Carlos Santana, was traded away during the offseason. That’s all before the issues Nick Francona brought to light about Kapler’s tenure as the Dodgers’ Director of Player Development.
This Phillies team is going to need strong leadership too. In 2015, Jonathan Papelbon choked Harper. Last year, Dee Gordon and Segura got into a fight in the clubhouse. Arrieta has been known to be intense as evidenced by his ripping the team last June. Fair or not, these are big personalities, who have had clubhouse conflicts.
Now, the Phillies are immeasurably better on paper. Their defense is better. Their lineup is deeper and among the best in the National League. A very promising bullpen with Seranthony Dominguez, Pat Neshek, and Edubray Ramos added Roberston. They have players with postseason and World Series experience.
This is also potentially a powder key with poor leadership. It is built on questionable pitching, and while the defense is better, it could still be among the worst in the majors. In the end, after all the improvements, they may find themselves needing to out-slug the teams in their division who arguably have lineups equally as good, better defense, better pitching, and better leadership.
Surprisingly, even with losing Bryce Harper, the Nationals are projected to win the National League East. For example, Fangraphs has the Nationals as six games better than the Phillies with a 55.9 percent chance of winning the division.
The reason is the Nationals rotation is deeper and stronger with the addition of Patrick Corbin. Their bullpen, which is a perpetual problem, is much stronger with Kyle Barraclough, Trevor Rosenthal, and Tony Sipp. All of these pitchers will be much better with Yan Gomes behind the plate. Moreover, they will have a full season from Juan Soto and Victor Robles.
That’s even before you consider Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon, both of whom can realistically be MVP candidates in 2019. It is a lot to get excited about, but it’s far from perfect.
First and foremost, the Nationals have injury issues. Stephen Strasburg hasn’t reached 30 starts since 2014. Sean Doolittle has been on the DL in each of the past six seasons. Barraclough has spent time on the DL in each of the past two. That’s just from their top end pitchers.
Adam Eaton has had two injury prone seasons. Gomes hasn’t played at least 115 games since 2014. After having a healthy 2017 season, Ryan Zimmerman was back on the DL last year. Speaking of Zimmerman, there’s an issue regarding older players performance.
Even with Zimmerman reducing his strike out rate and increasing his walk rate, his wRC+ dropped 19 points. If he reverts back to his career norms while seeing his ISO and other power numbers decline, he could revert back to his pre-2017 form.
The Nationals are also trying to replace Daniel Murphy with Brian Dozier. Last year, Dozier cratered hitting .215/.305/.391 in an injury plagued year. While his production may rebound with better health, Dozier will be 32 in May, and he has seen a three year drop in his wRC+ and his HR/FB.
With respect to Gomes, he had a bounceback 2018 season offensively, which does not seem repeatable. His walk rate dropped, and his BABIP was the highest it was since 2014. If he reverts to what he was the past few seasons, he’s not the upgrade the Nationals will need.
Now, the Nationals have younger players who could have breakout seasons, which could offset the decline and under-performance of their veterans. To that end, they’ll need Soto to replicate his surprise 2018 season, which he could do, and they’ll need Robles to be the player they’ve been touting for years. Based on a small sample size last year, he can do that.
The question is whether that’s enough. Arguably, there are very few teams in baseball who could tout a top four position players like Turner, Rendon, Robles, and Soto. That’s a dangerous core made all the more dangerous by the presence of Max Scherzer. There’s also Corbin, who they desperately need to be the pitcher he was last year and not the pitcher who was league average (101 ERA+) over the prior two seasons.
Still, the Nationals had Turner, Rendon, and Soto playing at a high level last year, and Scherzer was as dominant as he always was. The team had Harper last year, and he was the fourth best hitter in the division last year. That all amounted to an 82 win season. So certainly, it’s possible for things to break right for the Nationals and for them to be on the outside looking in come postseason time.
While this is the 50th Anniversary of the 1969 Miracle Mets, it is also the 20th anniversary of the 1999 Mets. As part of the 1969 celebration, it appears we will finally get to the Tom Seaver statute Mets fans have been clamoring for over the past decade. However, it does not appear there will be similar celebrations for the first Mets team to make consecutive postseasons this year.
You could present the argument the Mets could do something subtle like dusting off the black jerseys and wearing them like the Mets wore the old racing stripe jerseys three years ago. Of course, the mere mention of bringing back those jerseys tends to set off a firestorm. With that in mind, our roundtable answers the question as to whether the Mets should ever bring back the black jerseys in any way, shape, or form:
Pete McCarthy (OABT)
Only the black hats with blue brim.
Bre S. (That Mets Chick)
I wouldn’t completely bring them back but it would be cool to see them on occasion. The Mets wore the 86 racing stripes in 2016 on Sundays. It would be nice to see them maybe on Friday nights. (Sunday day games might be too hot for black uniforms).
James Schapiro (Shea Bridge Report)
I love the black jerseys, but it’s strange because until last September, David Wright would have been the last active Met to wear them. Now, as far as I can tell, assuming Jose Reyes is done, the only remaining Mets who wore the black jerseys during their original run are Jason Vargas — maybe — and Carlos Gomez — probably. That’s nothing against the jerseys; it’s just a hell of a thought that Juan Lagares is the longest tenured Met, and the current Mets who go back the farthest as Mets are Jason Vargas and Carlos Gomez. I guess my point is yes, absolutely bring back the black jerseys, but also wow, what a weird, crazy world we live in.
Metstradamus (Metstradamus Blog)
I’m not nostalgic about the black unis, especially since we only stopped wearing them seven years ago. I can’t get nostalgic about a uniform that a truckload of Mets fans complained about when they actually wore them. Love the blues much better and would rather wear those on Friday nights.
That said, if you want to bring the black unis back to mark an anniversary, save them until next season. This season belongs to ’69. A truly historic team like that deserves the entire season. Sneaking in a ’99 tribute seems odd to me. Instead, honor the 2000 team. They are probably the most underappreciated team in Mets history. Partly because the ’99 team overshadows them, and partly because they lost to the Yankees, who overshadow everybody. I understand that the roster was essentially the same, but the 2000 team never even got so much as a congratulatory rally at Shea Stadium. A good amount of pennant winners who lost the World Series at least got that, and I think the Mets would have had that if they had lost to anybody except the Yankees. They deserve their due. (Even Armando Benitez.) So I say do it next season.
Greg Prince (Faith and Fear in Flushing)
Wear period uniforms when they induct Alfonzo, Valentine and Leiter into the team Hall of Fame. Also, induct Edgardo Alfonzo, Bobby Valentine and Al Leiter into the team Hall of Fame.
Come 2022, I’d endorse doing for the 60th anniversary what the Reds are doing for their 125th, sprinkling in different throwbacks throughout the season, the black ones included.
Metstradamus
Greg, I thought of that too. If we want to have throwbacks for years ending in 9, give us the ’69 unis, the black unis, but also the two button pullovers from ’79 and the Mark Carreon specials from ’89.
Mets Daddy
I do like the special days one. Personally, I thought Piazza’s 31 should’ve been in black.
Greg Prince
Decade Nights or whatever shouldn’t take that much imagination to pull off.
It also requires a tacit admission that the Mets existed in years besides 1969, 1986 and the current year.
Joe Maracic (Loud Egg)
I was never a huge fan of the black jerseys but if it makes the Mets money they may bring them back. Seems like so many sports teams had a black third jersey and it kind of got played out. From a design point of view, you use black as a shortcut to make the uniform look better… but it doesn’t always work.
James Schapiro
The real question: black uniforms or snow-whites?
Metstradamus
James, black over the snow whites. Not close.
Mets Daddy
Whites were always too Brooklyn Dodgers for me
Greg Prince
I dare the Mets to bring back the 1997 ice cream hats for one game in 2022. The pillbox hats from 1976. And, of course, the Mercury Mets getup from 1999.
Mets Daddy
I actually liked the ice cream hats on their own. With the white jerseys, they were terrible
Metstradamus
They had a chance to bring back Mercury Mets on the 20th anniversary. Of course they blew it.
Greg Prince
Mercury Mets would be ideal for 2021. That was the date of “the future,” in 1999.
Mark Healey (Gotham Baseball)
I’m torn on the black. I did like them, but like always, the team ruined the concept by never truly executing the look properly. The hybrid cap, black with blue bill was atrocious, & did not match the jersey. (Sorry, Pete). They also de-emphasised blue in criminal fashion, wearing the home uniform with black undershirts / sleeves and socks made the team look hideous. If they bring them back, which they will, the all black cap and special one Tim only snow White pants (it looks terrible with the pinstripe pants) is the only way the jersey should be worn. Also Mercury Mets = infamnia.
But I hate the introduction of black as a major element because it ruined the rest of the uniform. That the Mets wore this monstrosity at home in the World Series still irritates me to no end. Hybrid cap, black undershirt, black drop shadow = again, infamnia
I hated the cap, I really, really hate it. If Mets bring back this hideous thing, then I vote No on black alts.
Mets Daddy
On the hat, I agree. As I noted previously, the hats need updating. I also think the jerseys themselves were overused. If the Mets were so inclined, I think bringing them back for Friday nights may be the best possible solution, mostly because I associate the Friday night black jerseys with Mike Piazza hitting that home run to cap off a 10 run rally against the Braves.
Overall, this was one of my favorite roundtables thus far, and I hope this roundtable encourages you to check out the excellent work of the people who contributed to this roundtable.
So, you’ve decided to buy a green shirt and drink green beer until you turn green and vomit. Despite you believing it to be offensive for other ethnic groups, you’re going to reduce Irish people to the lowest common denominator and get drunk because you believe all Irish people are drunks.
Fine, no one is stopping you and your “Irish For Today” or some not really clever drinking shirt. At the end of the day, we just ask you not to commit these atrocities:
First and foremost, it’s Paddy’s not Patty’s. Patty is a woman’s name. If you watch Always Sunny, it’s Paddy’s Pub, not Patty’s Pub. Really, if you say Patty’s, Irish people will think you a bigger idiot than you’re already acting.
Second, if that has four leaves ? it’s a clover, not a shamrock ☘️. The shamrock is Irish. The clover is a marshmallow in a box of Lucky Charms, which is as Irish as french fries are French.
Third, stop with the green beer and bagel nonsense. While Irish people are drinking stuff like Guinness, Harps, Killians, Smithwicks, Murphy’s, etc., you’re drinking awful beer with food coloring. You look like an imbecile.
Also, while you’re eating green bagels, we’re eating good food like Shepherd’s Pie, lamb stew, fish and chips, Irish soda bread, and corned beef and cabbage.
And before you start, you’re not Einstein pointing out corned beef and cabbage isn’t Irish. We all know. What you don’t realize is it’s part of the Irish-American tradition, thereby arguably making it the most appropriate thing to eat at an American St. Paddy’s Day celebration.
There are other areas which could be addressed. For example, wearing orange is offensive, but chances are if you’re learning some of these things for the first time, you’re wearing a token green shirt anyway.
More than anything, remember this is the celebration of a saint, it has importance to Irish people everywhere, and if you’re going to go out and get drunk, be safe and don’t drive.
With how free agency has transpired the past few years, we have seen an increasing number of players opt to sign contract extensions with their current teams rather than test free agency. This meant one of the top players in the upcoming free agent class, Nolan Arenado, has opted to remain with the Rockies until 2025 effectively making him a Rockie for life.
While we can argue the ramifications free agency will have on labor discussions and whether there will be a strike or lock out, the extension which arguably emanated is a positive for Rockies fans. They will now get to see a player they love continue putting up MVP caliber numbers and continue to make his case for the Hall of Fame. Being able to continue to root for players you love and have watched play for your team since they have been called up to the majors is a good thing for baseball.
Certainly, we saw that on display when David Wright played his last ever baseball game. On September 29, the 63-96 Marlins played a game against the 75-85 Mets. The starting pitchers were Trevor Richards and Steven Matz. In a vacuum, there would be no reason to go to this game. Still, 43, 928 Mets fans would make their way to Citi Field to say good-bye to a beloved player.
Yes, you can raise how Wright’s extension didn’t work out exactly how everyone planned. His injuries, especially his spinal stenosis, meant Wright did not have the Hall of Fame career many believed he was going to have. Towards the end of the deal, the Mets refusal to move on despite medical evidence to the contrary may have stood in the way from the Mets returning to the World Series after the 2015 season. In the end, none of that mattered as fans rushed to buy tickets and give their emotional farewell to their Captain.
If Wright were to leave and finish his career elsewhere, the emotion directed towards him would not have been the same. It would have existed, but certainly not to the same extent. Having a player like Wright creates that emotional connection between fans, player, and even the team.
We see that happening elsewhere in baseball. There is Joey Votto in Cincinnati, Freddie Freeman in Atlanta, Clayton Kershaw in Los Angeles. These are the players who have stayed with their teams. They’re loved not just because they’re great players, but also because they stayed.
There are various reasons why players stay, and those reasons may or may not include how teams are handling free agency. It doesn’t really matter why the players stay. To fans, it matters that the players stay.
That is the issue facing much of baseball now. The Angels have a decision to make on Mike Trout. The Giants have a decision to make with Madison Bumgarner. The Red Sox have the same decision with Mookie Betts. As for the Mets, they’re going to have to make these decisions with respect to Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Michael Conforto in relatively short order.
For the Mets, the player the Mets sign to an extension will likely become a beloved Met, more so than they are now. Ultimately, it won’t matter if things don’t pan out like everyone hopes it would. Instead, when all is said and done, we will have the memories of the 2015 season (and hopefully other postseason runs), the All-Stars, and the awards. We will have a reason to pour into Citi Field in our jerseys and say another emotional good-bye to a Mets great, a player we adored for years.
And that right there is why extensions are great for the game.
Major League Baseball has announced a series of rule changes to go into effect for the 2020 season. Some of the proposed rule changes include:
- Injured List increased from 10 to 15 days
- Assignment to the minor leagues increased from 10 to 15 days
- Maximum of 13 pitchers on the Major League roster
- Position players are not permitted to pitch unless very specific circumstances are met
- Relievers must face at least three batters
- Roster sizes increased from 25 to 26 players
Perusing all of these rules, you can not help but conclude it will have long lasting ramifications upon relief pitchers. In fact, you can argue the effects on relievers are damaging.
The most controversial of these rule changes is the three batter minimum. What is interesting is this is a rule change Major League Baseball had purportedly wanted to test in the Atlantic League during the 2019 season before trying to implement in the Majors. Instead, the test is going to be throw by the wayside, and it is going to be implemented anyway.
The result is the effective elimination of LOOGYs, and there will be a severe limiting of any pitcher with platoon splits. This means players like Jerry Blevins and Luis Avilan, two relievers who have one year deals, may be pitching the last year of their careers. Maybe.
Think about it, if you are a Major League team, how can you carry a LOOGY and have him pitch in critical innings know the opposing manager can just send up three straight pinch hitters to tee off on your pitcher? You have that extra batter now because of the rule change adding a hitter because, well, you are only allowed eight relievers.
This is the complete absence of strategy which is part of what makes late inning baseball so interesting. You have fans engaged during the game critiquing moves, and they create discussion points for days. Now, well, it’s paint-by-numbers baseball. You just put in relievers instead of planning out the inning to get as much leverage as possible.
That aside, remember a specialization job in baseball is effectively being eliminated.
As if that wasn’t problem enough, there is an issue with respect to the health of relievers. No, we should not expect pitchers facing three batters in an inning to cause them to brake down. That’s the case even if that would be an extra level of exertion the pitcher was not prepared to give.
The bigger issue is the mop-op games. There are times when a managers needs to lose a battle to win the war. They need to realize when his arms need a break, and sometimes, albeit rarely, he will need to use a position player. The problem is a manager’s ability to do that is now restricted.
According to the new rules, a position player can only pitch if he’s a designated two way player (right now, this only applies to Shohei Ohtani), in extra innings, or either team is up five runs. Seems reasonable in theory, but in practice, it could be much different.
Reasonably speaking, you could have had an extra inning game the previous night and had your starter knocked out early. Under the rules, if you are down just five, you have to go to your main bullpen guys, who may be exhausted, especially during those stretches in the summer. you cannot go to a position player. No, you need to stick with your tired relievers, who may have needed a real break.
Remember, this is more than asking a reliever to pitch to three batters. This is requiring him to pitch to three batters in every game. That means if you pitch three straight days, that’s at least nine batters. At a certain point, that puts a real strain on a reliever’s arm.
Of course, a team could respond by sending a pitcher down. Well, not even that is as easy. Instead of losing a tired arm for about three series, you are losing one for five. Maybe in a soft spot in your schedule, the Mets would be willing to send down a Robert Gsellman for a short stretch to call up a more rested arm like Paul Sewald or Jacob Rhame. The Mets are not doing that for five series because the hit is too prolonged.
The option for a quick IL stint also comes off the board because again you are talking five series instead of three. That leaves the option of just calling up another pitcher and use them as the 26th man on the roster. Again, that is problematic because a team is only permitted eight relievers, and in recent years, teams have been carrying that many relievers anyway. If you are carrying eight relievers, and they are tired, you’re back in the earlier predicament on time in the minors or the IL.
There’s one other consideration here. In September, teams have had the opportunity to call up every player on their 40 man roster. Now, teams only get two. Now, according to how the rules are written, that has to be two additional position players IF you are already carrying eight relievers. This further restricts a team’s ability to bring up a fresh arm, and anecdotally, a team does not get a chance to find their version of the 2002 Francisco Rodriguez, who played a huge role in the Angels winning the World Series.
However you break it down, these rules unduly affect relief pitchers. They are losing certain jobs. They are being required to do more than they previously have. Their ability to obtain a rest after a stressful game has been restricted. In total, this looks more like a plan not well thought out and pushed forward because Rob Manfred wanting to put his stamp in the game and Tony Clark not serving enough of a deterrence.
Of course, we would know more if this was tested out in the Atlantic League as was originally planned, but baseball instead opted to plow ahead without knowing the long term effects. When you break it down, it’s inexcusable for baseball to gamble with the integrity of the game and with the careers of pitchers without even having tested it.
With the new proposed rule changes, Major League Baseball is effectively eliminating left-handed relievers. As a result, we are not going to see situations where Josh Edgin comes into a pressure situation to strike out Bryce Harper to get the improbable save. Now, you can’t risk that because you can’t let Edgin face the next two batters.
Seeing this rule change the Mets are going to have to look more at left-handed relievers like Justin Wilson and less of the ilk of Luis Avilan. Before this baseball alerting rule goes into effect in the 2020 season, it seems like a good time to take a look at who the best left-handed relievers are in Mets history. Can you name them? Good luck!
Billy Wagner Pete Falcone Jesse Orosco Randy Myers Tug McGraw Bob Myrick John Franco Ray Sadecki Jerry Blevins Pedro Feliciano
When Jeff McNeil was finally called up to the majors, he took full advantage of his opportunity. In 63 games, McNeil hit .329/.381/.471 with 11 doubles, six triples, three homers, and 19 RBI. Looking at the advanced statistics, this equated to a 137 wRC+ and a 140 OPS+. If he were able to replicate that going forward, he would not be just one of the best hitters on the Mets, he would be one of the best hitters in all of baseball.
John Edwards explained McNeil’s early season success in The Athletic. Boiling it down, McNeil does not swing and miss. Moreoever, with his approach at the plate, he is also not getting called strikes against him. Certainly, this was a recipe for success for McNeil in 2018, but the larger question for the Mets is whether it will be a recipe of success in 2019 and beyond.
While his contact rate is extremely promising, his other numbers were not. His 5.6 percent walk rate is downright bad. In fact, it is just a hair above Amed Rosario‘s, but as we know Rosario has not had the same level of success at the plate McNeil exhibited in a small sample size. This shows McNeil’s ability to get on base was almost purely BABIP driven.
While we are not yet quite aware of what McNeil’s true BABIP talent is at the Major League level, it is generally accepted a player’s BABIP typically falls around .300. Last year, McNeil’s BABIP was .359. If McNeil was to repeat his approach at the plate next year, he is going to have to yield a similar BABIP to be a productive hitter.
As Devan Fink examined in Beyond the Box Score, it is possible for players to maintain a high BABIP. For example, Aaron Judge has been able to maintain a career .356 BABIP partially due to his hard hit rate, which has been over 48 percent in two out of his three years. Last year, McNeil’s was just 30.2 percent.
In addition to hard hit rate, there has been some correlation between line drives and BABIP. For example, reigning National League MVP Christian Yelich has a career .359 BABIP and a career 22.3 percent line drive rate. That includes last season when he had a .373 BABIP and a 24.7 percent line drive rate. Last year, McNeil had a 21.6 percent line drive rate, which is a little promising.
The last potential factor is speed. While Fangraphs once noted the correlation between speed and BABIP isn’t a pronounced as many believe, there is some correlation. For example, according to Baseball Savant, Trevor Story has elite sprint speed traveling 29.6 ft/second. With his sprint speed, he had a .345 BABIP last year and a .340 BABIP for his career. Last year, McNeil had good, but not great, speed traveling 27.8 feet/second.
Breaking it down, other than the ability to make contact, there is not one outstanding skill McNeil exhibited in his 63 Major League games, at least not one which would indicate his ability to replicate that BABIP. It’s even more dubious if he’s as aggressive at the plate.
Fortunately, McNeil does not need to be reliant upon a high BABIP to have another good offensive season. When you look at his minor league numbers, he was not called up to the majors because he swung at a high rate of pitches while making a high rate of contact. No, McNeil was called up to the majors because he had a Daniel Murphy type of transformation.
Beginning with Binghamton, McNeil increased his walk rate to a slightly above average 9.4 percent. He combined that with an excellent 10.9 percent strike out rate. Judging from his time in the majors last year, we saw his contact rate translated well. Now, it is time for him to begin the process of better identifying his pitches to hit. If he can replicate that like he did in Double and Triple-A last year, we should see him hit for much more power.
Basically, McNeil has the skills to be a very productive hitter in the Major League level next year, and he showed how well some of those skills translated at the Major League level. If he is able to incorporate more plate discipline, he should be able to drive the ball more and become an even more dangerous hitter. If that is the case, the Mets will be an even more potent and dangerous lineup than initially believed.