The New York Mets have a lot of decisions to make at the trade deadline. With Kodai Senga out for the season and Christian Scott dealing with a UCL issue, they have to decide just how much they can go in on this season.
There are some big options available that could change the dynamics of the Mets this year and the ensuing years. We see former Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell on the market, and Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skrubal potentially available.
For players like Skrubal, you have to open the farm and make a trade that hurts. Looking at the Mets farm system, they do have one top prospect who can be dealt more than others.
That is Drew Gilbert.
Keep in mind what this is, and what this isn’t. Nowhere is this saying trade Gilbert, and this is not suggesting he’s a bust. Rather, looking at the Mets future plans, he may be an odd man out.
Brandon Nimmo will be in left (or right) field through the 2030 season. Center field and second will likely be split somehow between Luisangel Acuña and Jett Williams. That would leave right field for Gilbert.
Maybe.
The Mets are already rumored to be going hard after Juan Soto this coming offseason. If that doesn’t pan out, they could keep Jesse Winker for a few years while other top prospects in Ryan Clifford make their way to the majors.
There’s also the matter of what to do with Jeff McNeil and Ronny Mauricio. Each of them could be a stopgap to buy time for other prospects. For all we know, Mauricio can claim the right field job outright.
Again, this is not saying these are better options than what Gilbert could provide. Only Soto would definitively be better. Rather, this is saying the Mets could make him available in the right trade and be able to successfully pivot.
For Skrubal, the Mets should be comfortable giving Gilbert plus. For Snell, it’s an overpay the Mets probably don’t want to pay for an ace on a bad season. There may be other options.
The Mets can change the franchise for the better at this trade deadline. They did that in trading away their aces last year to get a crop of prospects like Gilbert. Now, the question is how does Gilbert now best help this franchise.
This will go down in the annals of trades I care about more than most, but Tyler Stuart was a high cost for Jesse Winker.
Now, to Mets fans Winker is Babe Ruth. This guy just wears out the New York Mets, and there is value in keeping him away from potential first round opponents. Still, a team building long and short term shouldn’t make a trade like this.
Winker is a platoon bat. Even if you want to say he isn’t, that’s likely his role on this team. He’s also on an expiring deal. Players like this are nice when they hit.
Remember back to Tyler Naquin. Mets fans were doing backflips over getting him. That was until he and his .203/.246/.390 batting line proved to be an abject disaster.
Notably, Jose Acuña has a 1.77 Double-A affiliate for the Cincinnati Reds. The 20 year old Hector Rodríguez has a .746 OPS in Single-A. We don’t know what they’ll become, but when Naquin gave the Mets nothing, these prospects were basically just thrown away.
Stuart, 24, had a pedestrian 3.76 for Double-A Binghamton. What you liked was the 2.1 BB/9 against the 9.6 K/9.
He’s predominantly a fastball-slider pitcher with a high swing and miss rate with his slider. Long term, he’s probably a reliever, and with his control, he could rotate between the rotation and bullpen. He’s probably poised to make his Major League Debut sometime in 2025.
To some extent, think José Buttó. Yes, the stuff is different and so is the control. However, Buttó flashed two good pitches in the minors. Now, he’s a solid pitcher in the Mets pen with a promise to become much more.
If we go back to 2022, you’d be tearing your hair out watching Buttó become a good reliever at a time where Carlos Mendoza has to sacrifice a chicken to get through a game where he needs to use more than one reliever, which is every game.
If we want, we can over focus on Winker not hitting in the postseason, but that was just four games. In the inverse, we can look at his good numbers against the Atlanta Braves this season.
The main thing to like about this deal is David Stearns is going for it. He’s not making the Josh Hader mistake with this team. So far, he hasn’t truly impacted the long-term outlook of the team.
That said, he paid a high price for a platoon bat. As we’ve seen time and again, unless you’re Steve Pearce on the 2018 Boston Red Sox, you typically come to regret these deals.
If Winker is Pearce, and the Mets win the World Series, who cares what Stuart does in his career. If the Mets don’t win, this trade was a mistake. Let’s hope this isn’t a mistake.
Go back to May 29th. The New York Mets lost 10-3 to the Los Angeles Dodgers. If you were paying attention to the Mets at the time, this was just confirmation of how much this Mets team just couldn’t compete.
Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo were just over the Mendoza line. They were still trying to keep Brett Baty afloat. The list goes on and on.
The Mets were 11 games under .500. They were 10 games behind the Atlanta Braves for the top Wild Card spot (11 in the loss column). For that matter, they were six games out of the last Wild Card.
There were nine teams ahead of the in the Wild Card standings. Truth be told, they were closer to last place in the league being just three games up on the Miami Marlins.
Everything has changed since then.
The Mets offense has started hitting like they should. They hold the final Wild Card spot, a half game behind the St. Louis Cardinals. They’re only 2.5 games back of the Braves (three in the loss column).
We’re now less than a week from the trade deadline, and the truth is the Mets are a better team than the Braves. Moreover, the Mets are poised to surpass the Braves.
This season, the Braves have lost Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider for the season. Recently, Max Fried and Ozzie Albies have landed on the IL with significant injured. Michael Harris II has a bad hamstring injury.
The Braves are decimated, and they are playing like a team that is. Over the first month plus of the season, they were 19-9, first place in the NL East.
Since May 1, they’re 35-36. They’ve dropped to second place in the division, 8.5 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies.
More than that, the Mets have significantly closed the gap. They’re only three up on them, and they’re getting Kodai Senga back. Their offense has been great, and they have more resources at their disposal to improve at the trade deadline.
When both teams are whole, the Braves are better. However, as things stand now, the Mets have the better team, and they’re playing better baseball.
The Mets are three games behind, but they’ve closed the gap considerably. They should continue charging and pass the Braves. The Mets should be hosting a Wild Card series this October.
Good on the New York Mets players for making the decision hard for the front office. What once looked like a team that would be sellers is now a team who is in Wild Card position.
Certainly, the players don’t want to waste this opportunity. Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo have already publicly put pressure on the front office to be buyers.
However, this is David Stearns at the helm, and he’s cut different. He looks to sustainable winners, not one-and-done teams. Remember, this is the same person who traded Josh Hader when the Milwaukee Brewers were in first place.
Looking at the Mets, they’re on the precipice of building that sustainable winner. They have starting pitching prospects less than three years away. They have position player talent closer than that.
The question for this organization is do they sacrifice the future for this year. Of course, it’s a balancing act. Certainly, the Mets can be on the alert for more Phil Maton type deals. However, the real difference making players come at a real cost.
There’s an argument for an alternative path. That path has been forged already by José Buttó.
For his part, Buttó had struggled in his early Major League starts. He was far better this year, and eventually, partially out of necessity, he was moved to the Major League bullpen.
As a reliever, he is 3-0 with one save and a 0.84 ERA. With him and Maton, the Mets have two reliable arms in front of Edwin Díaz. Obviously, a team with a 4.07 FIP, the tenth worst in the majors, needs more help.
If the Mets aren’t inclined to trade off top prospects to do that, maybe they should be using those top prospects in 2024.
Again, Buttó’s move there has paid dividends. There’s a chance Tylor Megill can help there. Looking at David Peterson, his experience out of the pen last year appears to be helping him as a starter this year.
It’s something we have seen work against the Mets in the past. No one needs to be reminded of Adam Wainwright striking out Carlos Beltran to end the 2006 NLCS.
Keep in mind, Wainwright was struggling in Triple-A with the Cardinals. He had a 4.64 Triple-A ERA. He proved to be a better Major Leaguer.
At the moment, the Mets have a trio of struggling starting pitching prospects in Triple-A: Dom Hamel, Blade Tidwell, and Mike Vasil. Looking forward, Hamel and Vasil will need to be added to the 40 man roster before the 2024 Rule 5 Draft this offseason.
Rather than trade these players (or others), why not give them a look in the bullpen. Let’s see Hamel’s high spin rates fool batters. Tidwell’s fastball/slider combination appears ready for a MLB bullpen now. Let’s get Vasil away from the ABS system.
Let’s see what these young arms can do now. We’ve seen teams do this all the time to help them win. For that matter, Stearns did that in Milwaukee with Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, and Brandon Woodruff.
Stearns knows how to execute this plan. He knows how to take starting pitching prospects and move them to the bullpen with an eye towards eventually using them as Major League starters here.
The plan makes sense for the Mets in the short term. It could payoff in the long term. Perhaps, this is the way to improve the Mets bullpen now while working to develop their top prospects.
Want to know the quickest way to find out someone knows nothing about baseball? Let them tell you Francisco Lindor isn’t worth his contract.
When Steve Cohen officially took over as New York Mets owner, he quickly announced to the world the days of the Wilpons was over. He did that by not only authorizing the trade for Lindor, but also by establishing a personal relationship with the player.
This wasn’t Curtis Granderson and salmon. It was Lindor invited to Cohen’s home to have dinner with his family. Then, the mega deal came.
10 years. $341 million.
The contract was a statement. It’s been a constant talking point. It’s a lightning rod for a Mets team who has underperformed what we expected them to do when Cohen took over.
Make no mistake the contract is not the reason for the Mets relative struggles. It’s hasn’t stopped Cohen from spending. Moreover, Lindor has been great.
Since coming to the Mets, Lindor has an 18.1 WAR, 119 wRC+, and a 21 OAA. People just don’t understand how great these numbers are.
By WAR, Lindor is the 8th best player in all of baseball since joining the Mets. His wRC+ is tied for 36th overall and third among shortstops. His OAA is the third best and second among shortstops.
Lindor is a top 10 player in baseball. At worst, he’s a top two shortstop. He plays everyday giving the Mets a Gold Glove at short a with 30/30 caliber offensive threat.
He’s giving the Mets what Carlos Beltran and David Wright once did. Like with Beltran, he had a slow start to his Mets career before becoming that superstar player forever judged by a massive contract and early animosity with the fans.
With Lindor, it was him and Javier Báez and the thumbs down. For Beltran, it was poor reaction to the booing and the initial unwillingness to answer the curtain calls.
Despite the early difficulties, Lindor has played like a future Hall of Famer with the Mets. He’s been a leader and a superstar. He’s been worth every penny.
When Lindor signed his deal, 1.0 WAR was worth about $9.5 million. At an 18.1 WAR, Lindor has been worth $171.95 million. Through the end of this year, he will be paid $126.4.
That means he’s provided the additional value of a player who has provided a 4.4 WAR per year. That’s essentially what Pete Alonso has provided the Mets in his career.
Think about that for a moment. Lindor providing production at a level equivalent to his play and Alonso’s. He’s providing value equivalent to TWO superstar players.
And yet, somehow, people want to question whether he’s worth the money?!?!?! If you’re paying attention, and actually understand the dynamics, he’s been worth more than he’s being paid.
Lindor is a superstar. He’s a future Hall of Famer. His 12 will be retired by the Mets, and he will have a Mets cap on his Hall of Fame plaque. He’s been worth far more money than the Mets have paid him, and that will likely remain the case throughout his Mets career.
In the ninth inning of the All-Star Game, Pete Alonso pinch hit for Freddie Freeman to lead off the ninth inning with the National League down by two runs. With Freeman being a Mets killer and Alonso’s struggles, most Mets fans chuckled at the decision.
Of course, we know it’s about everyone playing. Long ago, the All-Star Game went from competitive to participation trophy. Still, the juxtaposition was notable for Mets fans.
By most measures, this appears to be a career worst year for Alonso (COVID season being an exception for a litany of reasons). Right now, Alonso is on pace for a career worst slugging, OPS, and wRC+.
Notably, he’s well on pace for a career low in homers. That is correlating with more doubles. This isn’t Alonso legging out extra base hits, but more likely, a diminution in power.
His 11.7 barrel% is a career worst. The 88.3 average exit velocity is a career worst, and more alarmingly, this would mark a third successive season Alonso has seen his exit velocity dip.
Looking at the “clutch” stats, he’s doing most of his damage when the game is out of reach. When the score is within three runs, his stats are abysmal. It gets to the point where you don’t expect him to deliver in the big spot anymore.
Of course, not all of that is fair to Alonso. Clutch stats vary year-to-year. With the season teetering early and Gary Cohen pondering if this was already the low point of a lost season, he hit a huge homer to deliver the Mets first win of the season.
Fact is, we’ve seen many big moments from Alonso over his Mets career. The question is will there be more in the ensuing seasons.
This is partially a question because Alonso turned down a seven year $158 million extension offer. For a point of reference, this was higher AAV than the Atlanta Braves signed Matt Olson, who is a superior first baseman.
Whatever the reason, Scott Boras or not, Alonso believed he deserved more. Watching him this season, it’s difficult to imagine he even matches the offer the Mets once gave him.
Keep in mind, that was when Billy Eppler was the GM. Eppler is now out, and David Stearns is in charge. Stearns’ appetite to keep Alonso may motivated be the same. That does double with Juan Soto hitting the free agent market.
Free agent history is replete with massive mistakes for deals with one dimensional slugging first basemen. Ask the Philadelphia Phillies about the Ryan Howard deal, or the Baltimore Orioles about Chris Davis.
It’s very likely we already saw the best of Alonso. Truth be told, with his -6 OAA, Mark Vientos is already a better option at first. At the moment, Vientos is also a better hitter with a brighter future. Keep in mind, Vientos is a bad third baseman, and he needs to move across the diamond.
In the end, seeing Alonso’s decline and Vientos’ rise, the Mets would almost be foolish to extend Alonso at this point. That goes double with the pending free agent class. In reality, such an extension would be purely sentimental.
Fortunately for Alonso, he has the second half where he can show the Mets he’s the guy who can hit 500 homers in Queens. He’s historically been a second half player, and the Mets need him to be that to lead them to the postseason.
However, if we see more of the same of the 2024 Alonso, this will unfortunately be his last season as a Met. So far, he’s made that an easy decision for Stearns. It’s time for him to make it a difficult decision.
In the (again) revamped Home Run Derby, Bobby Witt, Jr. came just short in his attempts to tie Teoscar Hernandez in the final rounds. It was great drama for what aspires to be a fun event. In turn, it aspires to draw fans to baseball.
In that, it failed . . . again.
The event had a listed start time of 8:00 P.M., but that’s when the unnecessary pomp and circumstance began. We should’ve known we were in for it when Ingrid Andress did her best Roseanne Barr or Carl Lewis impersonation performing the National Anthem.
It’s summer vacation, so I made a deal with the boys they can stay up for as long as Pete Alonso was in the event. Alonso didn’t get very far, so I relented and let them stay up longer.
And longer.
And longer.
By the time Witt’s last ball hit the base of the wall, it was 10:57 PM EST. Let’s face it. Most kids were in bed long ago, and even the baseball crazy dads had to eventually relent and send the kids to bed.
We’re constantly asking what can baseball do to attract a younger generation. Baseball fans are older, and Major League Baseball is looking for ways to attract younger fans.
This SHOULD be the perfect event. Kids LOVE stars. They love homers. This should be the event that captivates the young fan drawing them to the All-Star Game and the rest of the season.
That’s not happening at 10:57 PM. Instead, they wake up the next day. Check the iPad and move on with their day. There’s no live or die with the event or the sport. That was lost hours ago.
There’s a number of tweaks that could be addressed. The bonus round was superfluous and made the event drag. They could get rid of human garbage like Marcel Ozuna. Mostly, they need to find out a way to make this end at a more kid friendly time.
Dads have no issue letting kids stay up for the big sport event. I’ll never forget staying up to see Gene Larkin hit a game winning fly to left off Alejandro Peña scoring Dan Gladden.
The Home Run Derby certainly isn’t the World Series. Sadly, an event lacking Aaron Judge and most of baseball’s biggest stars makes this just a lesser event. Having Ken Griffey, Jr. there was a reminder of how big an event this once was (of course, Griffey was also the one who wanted out of the event).
Really, baseball is close to getting back to that point. It’s a tweak here. Finding better ways to get the stars (hat tip to Alonso and Jose Ramirez for participating). Whatever they do next, they have to make sure the event ends before 10:57 PM.
Once that happens, the younger fans can stay tuned in longer, and from there, new fans are born (or the current fans become bigger fans). As they tweak the rules to this event seemingly every year, hopefully, next year, they’ll find the right formula.
The New York Mets did everything they could do to sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Everything.
Steve Cohen flew his private jet to meet him in Japan. He hosted him in his home. He also offered him the largest ever contract for a starting pitcher.
12 years. $325 million. Opt out after five years.
Short of hypnosis, the Mets did all they could. They went above where even the New York Yankees were willing to go. They just couldn’t overcome Yamamoto wanting to join Shohei Ohtani.
The Los Angeles Dodgers matched the Mets offer, and now, Yamamoto chose the Dodgers. If the Dodgers didn’t match, or the Mets were given a chance to match, who knows how this ends?
While we can guess, in the end, Yamamoto is a Dodger. Worse yet, the Mets offseason was structured as Yamamoto or bust. The Mets busted.
The question is where do the Mets go from here. There’s mid rotation options like Jordan Montgomery. Blake Snell is also available, but he isn’t an innings eater.
If the Mets want everyone to forget about the failed Yamamoto pursuit, they could give Pete Alonso an extension. Other than that, the fans will be up in arms over this failed pursuit.
They can also do what they were going to do all along. Cohen waited years for David Stearns, and it’s now time to see what he can do.
Whatever he does, he will be doing it without Yamamoto. Maybe that’s a good thing considering that cost and complete and utter lack of MLB experience.
Yes, that’s sour grapes.
That doesn’t mean the Mets can’t contend. There are still players here. An 84 sim Arizona Diamondbacks team went to the World Series. Just get in, and anything is possible.
That all said, the Mets did all they could. Doesn’t matter. Yamamoto is a Dodger.
According to various reports, the New York Mets are out on Shohei Ohtani. The Mets are not at fault here.
The fact of the matter is Ohtani doesn’t want to come to New York. He doesn’t want the media attention and responsibility that comes along with New York.
Certainly, Ohtani has spent his entire life in the limelight. He gets more attention than just about any baseball player. He understands the responsibilities that comes with being the best player in the game.
And yet, he’s being a bit short-sighted here, and thus, is making a mistake.
Frankly, the Mets history is replete with players who didn’t want to deal with New York. Even worse, it’s full of players who just don’t want the Mets.
However, for the most part, when they come here, they love it here.
The classic example was Keith Hernandez. He was devastated about the trade to the Mets. He was persuaded to stay, and it led to his being a beloved player with his number retired.
Time and again, Darryl Strawberry has said he regrets leaving the Mets. Players like Cliff Floyd and Billy Wagner were at one point skeptical of being a Met only to sign in free agents and cherish being a part of this team.
Mike Piazza was shockingly traded to the Mets. Even more of a shock, he’d get booed by the fans. Despite that, he signed a deal on the eve of free agency, became one of the most beloved players, and dons a Mets cap on his Hall of Fame plaque.
There was Curtis Granderson who came to the Mets in free agency after his New York Yankees tenure. He talked about how he heard Mets fans were real fans and later said Mets fans were louder.
Even a player like Carlos Beltran keeps finding his way back to the Mets. He didn’t initially want to come. The Wilpons made him want to leave, and yet he’s returned twice.
Point is there’s something special about being a Met. Even the most reluctant end up loving the experience and want to forever be a part of the franchise.
Ohtani is passing on that partially because he doesn’t want the New York media scrutiny and attention. Being fair here, that’s about to follow him anywhere he goes.
He’s also missing out on a city that would allow him to live somewhat in obscurity. After all, this is a city where Robert DeNiro and Al Pacino live. Harry Potter lives there. Hell, Spike Lee not only lives there, but he’s at every New York Knicks game.
New York comes with attention, but it also allows for a somewhat normal life. Being fair, Ohtani gets the same with Los Angeles.
With the Mets, Ohtani would get Steve Cohen who is not afraid to spend. He’s also an owner who wants his players to feel welcome and be like family.
There’s an adoring fanbase desperate to embrace him.
That’s not to say the Mets are the best fit for Ohtani. In the end, only Ohtani can figure that out for himself. To some degree, he has and is nearing a decision.
It’s just unfortunate he’s ruling out a team that could change his life for the better. Yes, the Mets need Ohtani, and he doesn’t need the Mets. That still doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be a great experience for him.
In the end, Ohtani should’ve given it more of a chance, and that is mostly why he’s making a mistake.
David Stearns made his first real foray into free agency signing RHP Luis Severino and INF Joey Wendle. These were curious moves to say the least.
Severino, 29, was dreadful last season, and he really hasn’t returned to his All-Star form after his 2020 Tommy John surgery. That said, there was hope in 2022.
In 2022, he was 7-3 with a 3.18 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9, and a 9.9 K/9. Over his 19 starts, he had a 124 ERA+ and a 3.70 FIP.
Last year was a disaster. He had a 65 ERA+ and a 6.14 FIP. The caveat is he dealt with injuries which likely impacted his performance.
On that, Severino dealt with a lat strain in 2022 and an oblique in 2023. As we saw with Max Scherzer, the Mets struggled to deal with these types of pitcher injuries the past few years.
All that said, one year $13 million is a worthwhile gamble. That goes double with Jeremy Hefner as pitching coach and Stearns ability to build a pitching staff.
With Severino slotted for the back of the rotation, this makes sense. It makes more sense with the Mets needing to completely build a rotation.
Where things go awry is Wendle.
Wendle is coming off a year where he had a 47 wRC+ and a -3 OAA. He turns 34 in April, and unsurprisingly, he’s past his prime and in decline.
His wRC+ declined four straight years. The OAA dropped three straight years. He had seen his sprint speed drop three straight years before marginally rebounding last year.
Maybe he rebounds defensively, but he’s also going to be 34. He’s also literally slowing down If you’re betting on a defensive bounce back from a player, Luis Guillorme was a better bet.
However, the Mets non-tendered Guillorme. They then gave Wendle $2 million. It’s not a lot of money, but it’s a roster spot guaranteed to a player who should’ve been a minor league signing.
The hope is Wendle NEVER plays. The same would’ve been true if Guillorme stayed.
Ideally, Ronny Mauricio is the everyday second or third baseman. Jeff McNeil returns well from Tommy John. Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, or Mauricio are the answer at third.
Of course, it’s plausible all of the above fails. Also, let’s never speak of Francisco Lindor getting injured. Taking all that into account, Wendle is not the answer. He can never be the answer.
Whatever the case, it’s still early with plenty of difference making players available. We should wait to see the entire picture come to focus before fully judging even with this being an unspectacular and curious start.