The Mets came into Pittsburgh having won seven in a row, a streak which included a sweep of the Pirates. On the mound was Steven Matz, who had pitched a complete game shutout against the Pirates his last game out.
When Jeff McNeil and Pete Alonso doubled in the first to give the Mets a 1-0 lead, you had the distinct impression this was going to be the eighth straight win. After a Wilson Ramos RBI groundout scoring Alonso, it was 2-0.
The issue with Matz is always the first inning, but not tonight. It was a quick 1-2-3 inning. Over the first three, he had allowed just one hit with four strikeouts. He was looking like he did when he dominated the Pirates in his last start, and with J.D. Davis‘ third inning RBI double, the Mets had a 3-0 lead.
The wheels completely fell off in the fourth with Matz allowing a leadoff walk to Bryan Reynolds before allowing four straight hits. The big hit was a Melky Cabrera two RBI double giving the Pirates a 4-3 lead. The bleeding didn’t stop there with Matz allowing five in the inning before getting pulled for Robert Gsellman.
Gsellman pitched well and kept the Mets in the game with 2.1 scoreless. With Gsellman coming into the game in the fourth., the depth of the Mets bullpen would be taxed.
The Mets are still very much alive in that Work Cad face. For them to stay alive, they need to first win tomorrow and again on Sunday.
Well, now the Mets are just two games under .500, and they are four games back of the second Wild Card. They are now heading to Pittsburgh, a team they just swept, to try to get over .500 and make further headway in the Wild Card race:
1. You know things are going well when Robinson Cano powers the offense, Amed Rosario is playing Gold Glove level defense, Wilson Ramos wasn’t the worst defensive catcher, and Jeurys Familia was pitching a clean inning.
2. If you didn’t believe in the Mets chances, seeing Pete Alonso‘s LFGM Tweet, you see the players believe. If the players believe, there is a real chance this could happen.
3. This is not paid advertising, but with Alonso’s statement, you should consider buying one of the new LFGM t-shirts from Athlete Logos. On a personal note, I have used Athlete Logos for personal projects, and he has done a great job. Seriously, why have you not bought a shirt yet?
4. Now that things are going well again, we hear from Brodie Van Wagenen. This should surprise no one as he was taking victory laps after his big moves in the offseason, and he was nowhere to be seen when the Mets were struggling, and everyone was demanding answers. What makes his suddenly speaking again all the worse was his Tweet was a clear rip-off of Alonso’s. At this point, just let the players be front and center and go hiding like you did previously.
5. As noted yesterday, Jacob deGrom is pitching like he did last year, and suddenly, he is right near the top of the Cy Young race. With Max Scherzer hurt, deGrom can very well pass him over the next month.
6. Noah Syndergaard has four straight outings of seven plus innings with eight plus strikeouts. Just like deGrom is in his Cy Young form, Syndergaard is in his 2016 form.
7. Remember Syndergaard once said the Mets are a second half team. He’s backing up that statement by pitching like the best pitcher in baseball lately. Seeing him pitch like this you have to be happy the Mets did not trade him. Seeing him pitch, you really have to wonder why the Mets aren’t considering giving him a contract extension, especially with him wanting to be here.
8. Speaking of being happy a player who wants to be here wasn’t traded, Zack Wheeler was great yesterday. There are parameters for a contract extension for him with Nathan Eovaldi being a really good comparison. With the threat of the qualifying offer, you would think the Mets have leverage to get something done here.
9. With the Mets not selling, there was a legitimate case to be made the Mets should have added a reliever. While the Mets didn’t directly do that, by replacing Jason Vargas with Marcus Stroman in the rotation, the Mets did just that. With the pitching staff going 6-7 innings or more every night there is less of a need for your bullpen every night.
10. The pitching staff really has been great lately with them having the best ERA in the National League since July, and the best pitching staff in all of baseball since the All-Star Break. This is the result of the starters going deeper into games. This is a replication of the plan in 2015 which served the team quite well.
11. It also works well when Seth Lugo pitches like the best reliever in the game. That should surprise no one because he is that. There is no reliever more versatile and smart. Recently, he has pitched multiple innings, earned a save, and came in to face one batter to get the Mets out of a bases loaded jam.
12. On the pitching front, Mike Petriello of MLB.com points out just how much Ramos’ inability to frame the low pitches has hurt a Mets team heavily reliant on sliders and sinkers. That may be a reason why Syndergaard has thrived with Tomas Nido behind the plate. On that front, the Mets may want to consider pairing Stroman with Nido too.
13. Howie Rose made an interesting comparison between Edwin Diaz and Tug McGraw yesterday noting like Diaz, McGraw really struggled up until August of that 1973 season. On August 1, McGraw had a 5.77 ERA. From August 1 until the end of the season, he had a 1.65 ERA for a Mets team which made a miracle run.
14. For Diaz, it is time he turns things around. He has a 5.14 ERA, and he has allowed a run in three straight games with a homer in two of his last three games. On the home run front, he has allowed more homers than he did last year, and he is one off of a career worst.
15. Michael Conforto has been great. He had key walks leading to runs in tight games, and when he came up with the Mets needing insurance runs he delivered including his massive 11th inning homer. Yesterday, he had his hitting streak snapped, but he still contributed with a great sliding catch.
16. Jeff McNeil had a great catch of his own flying into the netting in the right field corner to make a catch. Even with his defense, he needs a day to rest what his an ailing wrist. Lately, he has been struggling at the plate. Over his last seven games, he is hitting .174/.240/.435.
17. The Mets are still winning with McNeil and Alonso struggling because everyone around them has picked it up. That includes Rosario who is really breaking out in every aspect of his game. That also includes Conforto who seems to have shaken off the effects of his concussion. There is also Todd Frazier, who has been much better of late.
18. One interesting development of late is the Mets going to Aaron Altherr over Juan Lagares for a late inning defensive replacement. Prior to this year, it would have seemed to be insane, but this year, it looks like the right move.
19. I’m still laughing over this deGrom quote I saw on MMO: “I would’ve hated to see anybody go. We’re staying together and that says they believe in us and hopefully we can keep the ball rolling.” Apparently, deGrom didn’t think Vargas was anybody.
20. The last time the Mets tried to make a run like this was 2016 with Asdrubal Cabrera being the bat who helped push them into the top Wild Card spot. With Cabrera now available, the Mets should really consider bringing him back to be a big bat off the bench.
As pointed out yesterday, Jacob deGrom is making a charge to win consecutive Cy Young Awards. If he does that, he will join Tom Seaver as the only Mets pitcher to win multiple Cy Youngs. He will also become the 11th pitcher in Major League history to win consecutive Cy Youngs. Can you name the 10 who have accomplished the feat? Good luck!
Sandy Koufax Denny McLain Jim Palmer Roger Clemens Greg Maddux Pedro Martinez Tim Lincecum Clayton Kershaw Max Scherzer Randy Johnson
Things are going real well for the Mets right now. Actually, that’s an understatement. Take today’s game for example.
Suddenly, Amed Rosario is not just playing well at shortstop. Now, he’s starting to look like a Gold Glover:
Amed Rosario's first 36 games: 10 errors
Amed Rosario's last 71 games: 3 errors pic.twitter.com/dLdLIUl0ZN
— SNY (@SNYtv) August 1, 2019
He wasn’t the only one out there with web gems. In fact, despite the Mets being a terrible defensive team most of the year, they’d get great defensive plays from Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil:
Let's Freaking Go Nets. ? @JeffMcNeil805 pic.twitter.com/ZhQiFwD0q7
— New York Mets (@Mets) August 1, 2019
The defense is SHOWING OUT today. ??? pic.twitter.com/SKx254wybX
— New York Mets (@Mets) August 1, 2019
If that wasn’t shocking enough, Robinson Cano powered the Mets offense. After a 2-for-30 stretch, he homered in the second, and he’d hit an RBI double in the sixth.
In that sixth inning, Wilson Ramos would hit an RBI single, and in a twist of irony, Welington Castillo‘s inability to field a throw home from Leury Garcia let the originally non-hustling Cano score as well on the play.
When Ramos isn’t the catcher botching plays at the plate, things are really going the Mets way.
Another thing going the Mets way was Zack Wheeler. The Mets looked brilliant not trading him when he came out looking like he had no-hit stuff. It wouldn’t be until two outs in the fifth until the White Sox got a hit.
In total, Wheeler only allowed four hits, and no White Sox player would advance past first with him on the mound. His final line would be 7.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K. Despite his only throwing 88 pitches, Wheeler was lifted because he just came off the IL with the tired arm. If not, he might’ve gone the distance.
Wheeler leaving after seven provided what might’ve been the biggest shock of all. Jeurys Familia would pitch a clean ninth to preserve a 4-0 win.
As you can see in this game, things are looking really good with the Mets right now. They’ve won seven straight, and they’re back to just two games under .500. They’re also just 4.0 games back in the Wild Card race.
Game Notes: Once again, it was Aaron Altherr and not Juan Lagares who came in for late inning defense.
This was the typical Jacob deGrom start in that he was great, and he got little to no help from his offense.
deGrom would only struggle in the third. In that inning, he loaded the bases with one out. That was partially the result of his struggling with his command walking two batters. Unlike last night in his at-bat against Seth Lugo, Jose Abreu took advantage hitting a sacrifice fly giving the White Sox a 1-0 lead.
Things got dicey with deGrom then walking AJ Reed on four pitches to again load the bases. He’d finally settle in striking out Eloy Jimenez to end the inning.
From there, deGrom would retire nine straight and 12 of the last 14 he faced. In total, he pitched seven innings allowing in run on five hits while walking two and striking out 11. Being this is deGrom, he would get the no decision for this typically great deGrom effort.
One of the reasons why was Lucas Giolito was arguably better on the night. The Mets wouldn’t get a runner into scoring position against him until Todd Frazier hit a leadoff double in the fifth. Giolito responded by getting the next three in a row to strand Frazier there.
Giolito did not have the same luck on the sixth after issuing a leadoff walk to Michael Conforto. After striking out Pete Alonso, Robinson Cano singled putting runners at the corners. Wilson Ramos hit a slow chopper to third, and Conforto broke home on the contact play. Conforto was safe on a nifty slide tying the game at 1-1.
That slide from @mconforto8. ? pic.twitter.com/hTUXUHITpE
— New York Mets (@Mets) August 1, 2019
J.D. Davis had a chance to give the Mets a lead, but because this isn’t Citi Field, he hit into an inning ending double play.
Giolito settled back in, and he shut down the Mets allowing just the one run on three hits with three walks and nine strikeouts over 7.0 innings.
This became a battle of the bullpens, and Justin Wilson somehow got through the eighth unscathed. With runners at first and second and two outs, Jon Jay hit the ball up the middle. On the play, it was very difficult to see if Cano was going to get to it. It didn’t matter as the ball hit second base umpire Stew Scheurwater. That meant instead of a potential go-ahead RBI, it was an infield single and a dead ball.
As Gary Cohen was contemplating if you should bring in the warming Jeurys Familia, Ron Darling was rather forceful in saying Mickey Callaway should stick with Wilson. Callaway stuck with Wilson, and he got out of the jam getting Tim Anderson to ground out.
Against White Sox closer Alex Colome, Ramos would lead off with a grounder twice booted by Anderson. After Davis singled up the middle, Aaron Altherr pinch ran for Ramos. It proved to be the right decision as he scored easily on a Todd Frazier RBI single. It’s very likely Ramos was not sent or would be thrown out if he remained in the game.
The Mets had a chance to add-on with the bases loaded, and for a moment it looked like they’d squander the chance when Jeff McNeil struck out. It was not his night going 0-for-5 with three strikeouts. While it wasn’t his night, it was Conforto’s hitting a two out two run single expanding the Mets lead to 4-1.
That left breathing room for Edwin Diaz, who was not traded, to get the save. He looked much different tonight than he has most of the season striking out the first two he faced. After a Leury Garcia homer, things felt much more ominous, but Diaz settled in to record his 24th save of the season in the Mets 4-2 win.
Mets have now won six in a row, and with the Nationals losing today, they’re closer to at least one of the teams ahead of them. It’s becoming more and more real.
Game Notes: Zack Wheeler was not traded at the deadline, and he is scheduled to pitch tomorrow with Marcus Stroman slated to make his Mets debut Saturday.
The New York Mets are five games out of the Wild Card. The two teams immediately ahead of them, the Diamondbacks and the Giants, appear to be selling. After the dust clears today, it would appear the Wild Card race is going to be the among the Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs, Nationals, Phillies, and maybe the Mets.
On the National League Central front, it is three teams fighting for the division. There will be a lot of head-to-head games between them, and it is possible one of those teams fall way out of the race. Reasonably speaking, that could be the Brewers who have a -17 run differential and don’t have the pitching they did last year. It should also be noted after a big May, the Cubs have been a sub .500 club.
In the National League East, the Mets have six games each against the Nationals and Phillies putting the Mets fate in their own hands. For that matter, they also have three at home against the Cubs. As things stand, the Mets can really help themselves against everyone against the Cardinals and Brewers.
This doesn’t mean the Mets have a good chance. They are four games under .500, and they are still without a real center fielder. With Dominic Smith on the Injured List, they are down one key bat. We have also seen Pete Alonso slump in the second half. And yet, the Mets still have a viable chance to claim a Wild Card.
After all, at the moment their starting five is Jacob deGrom–Noah Syndergaard–Marcus Stroman–Zack Wheeler–Steven Matz. There is no better starting five in baseball. With the pitchers going deeper into games, and with their bullpen arms being healthier, the bullpen has been better of late. Of course, it helps that the team has Seth Lugo, who is phenomenal.
The question for the Mets today is what do you do? Do you add, sell, or stand pat?
If the Mets are willing to give Wheeler a qualifying offer, the team should keep him unless they are getting an offer for a player significantly better than the player they could draft with their compensation pick. The team should not trade Edwin Diaz unless they are going to be like the Indians and get a package similar to Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes, Logan Allen, Scott Moss, and Victor Nova. Short of that, pass.
Under no circumstances should the Mets trade Syndergaard. It’s not worth it. You’re not going to improve the team this year or the next by doing it.
Overall, the Mets could trade Todd Frazier, but it would seem odd to do that when they just obtained Stroman who needs a good infield defense. The Mets could put Jeff McNeil at third, but they don’t have anyone to put in the outfield. The team should trade Wilson Ramos for whatever they can get. He’s not helping this year or the next. He’s a hindrance. Perhaps, the Mets could look for cost controlled relievers like Mychal Givens but only for the right price.
Overall, the Mets are in a limbo right now. They’re in a position where they could contend this year, but probably won’t. Still, their schedule will allow them to make a run. With Stroman, they are setting themselves up to compete next year, so they can’t purge long term pieces, and with them having a chance now, they shouldn’t be just salary dumping players like Frazier.
In the end, the Mets just need to stand pat. That is unless they are blown away with an offer for Diaz, or they could make an offer to get that center fielder not in their system or on the free agent market this offseason. There are so many different possibilities, but in the end, perhaps the best choice is just to do nothing and ride this out.
If the Mets thought they could improve the team by trading Noah Syndergaard, he went out today and showed the Mets why the idea is monumentally stupid.
Syndergaard was Syndergaard pumping his fastballs up to 100 MPH. The White Sox didn’t have a hit against him until a Ryan Goins double to lead off the fifth. The White Sox only scored a run off of him because of a Todd Frazier error.
Other than that, the White Sox could touch Syndergaard through the first seven innings. Up until that point, Syndergaard had allowed just the unearned run on three hits with one walk and 10 strikeouts.
Things were different in the bottom of the eighth with the White Sox going through the lineup a fourth time.
Yolmer Sanchez led off the inning with a single, and he went to third on an Adam Engel single. With Jeff McNeil throwing to third on the play and hitting Sanchez on the throw, Engel moved to second.
Syndergaard bore down and got a huge strikeout of Leury Garcia. Mickey Callaway then brought in Justin Wilson to face the left-handed hitting Jon Jay who had good career numbers against Syndergaard entering the game.
Jay popped up a bunt which Pete Alonso could not get to in time, but with it being a pop up, the runners froze. As a result, the bases were loaded with Jose Abreu coming to the plate. Callaway countered with Seth Lugo. What ensued was a classic matchup.
It was an eight pitch at-bat which ran full with Abreu fouling off four pitches. On the eighth pitch, Abreu grounded into an inning ending 5-4-3 double play.
Confirmed: Seth Lugo has ice in his veins. pic.twitter.com/xpVjr4wnsH
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 31, 2019
Frazier, who was spiked earlier in the inning, got it quick to Robinson Cano, who made a poor throw to first. He was bailed out by Alonso’s terrific scoop.
The Mets needed that double play to preserve the 2-1 lead and keep Syndergaard on the long side of the ledger.
Syndergaard has now pitched 7.0+ innings in four straight starts allowing three earned or fewer and striking out 8+ in each of those starts. You’re not getting a better pitcher than this. It’s Exbibit AA why the Mets cannot trade him.
In the game, the Mets only scored two runs because they squandered opportunities going 0-for-12 with RISP and leaving 11 on base. To that end, the Mets only two runs came on RBI groundouts.
In the second, Tomas Nido plated Frazier with a groundout. In the fifth, a Cano groundout scored Michael Conforto. In both innings, and in eight of the nine innings, the Mets left runners on base. It was something front and center in your mind in that stressful eighth, and Edwin Diaz‘s eventful ninth.
Diaz led off the ninth walking Goins. After striking out Eloy Jimenez, he lost control of one hitting James McCann up and in. Fortunately, it hit McCann’s shoulder and then bill of his helmet.
Unfortunately, with Tim Anderson at the plate, he threw a wild pitch putting runners at second and third with one out. The pitch was ruled a wild pitch, but it was one Nido should’ve had.
It hurt as Anderson hit a sac fly. One more here is Callaway went with Aaron Altherr as the late inning defensive replacement in center instead of Juan Lagares. Even thigh Altherr’s throw was off line allowing the runner to score easily, it probably still didn’t matter. That said, it was an interesting development.
Diaz would get out of the inning sending it to extras, but it was still his fifth blown save.
This was not your typical Mets loss. Robert Gsellman pitched a scoreless 10th and 11th. That would give him the win with McNeil and Conforto going back-to-back in the top of the 11th.
The rally was started by a Rosario single. He’s sizzling hot now with a four hit game under his belt. He scored on the McNeil two run homer, and Conforto hit a massive homer giving the Mets a 5-2 lead.
Over all the bleachers. ? #Crushed pic.twitter.com/ZMppfothsQ
— MLB (@MLB) July 31, 2019
The game ended on July 31 meaning it’s now the trade deadline with the Mets increasingly looking like buyers. Perhaps, but this run may be too little too late for that. It may not be for the Wild Card.
Game Notes: Conforto’s and Amed Rosario‘s hot second halves continued. Conforto was 3-for-5 with a two runs, a walk, double, homer, and an RBI. Rosario was 4-for-5 with a stolen base.
Yesterday, the Mets traded Jason Vargas to the Philadelphia Phillies for Double-A catcher Austin Bossart. Considering Bossart is a 25 year old catcher repeating Double-A hitting .195/.303/.335, this is nothing more than a salary dump. On the surface, there is nothing wrong with that.
Fact is, Jason Vargas hasn’t been good for the Mets, and he is expensive. The team needed to unload him, and it was going to be difficult to do so.
Since the 2017 All Star Break, Vargas has a 5.30 ERA with opposing batters hitting .264/.334/.472 off of him. He has walked 3.5 per nine, and he has averaged 4.2 innings per start over that stretch. No matter how you want to manipulate or massage those stats, that’s not good, and it is not befitting the production you need from a fifth starter.
His pitching that way really hurt the Mets early in the season. It caused them to go to the bullpen much earlier, and it was one of the biggest reasons why the Mets bullpen was so taxed early in the season. It is not even about the Mets being under .500 in his starts over the first few months, it was about the lasting effect on the team.
The counter-argument many will have is Vargas has been much better of late. To that point, over his last six starts, he is 3-2 with a 4.46 ERA and a 1.165 WHIP. In a vacuum, that level of production is more than acceptable from a fifth starter. The problem is he’s not going to be able to maintain that level of production.
Over these six starts, Vargas has yielded a .227 BABIP while walking 3.4 BB/9. He is stranding 76.2 percent of batters. This is nowhere near what he is as a pitcher. In his career, Vargas has a .282 BABIP in his career with a 73.1 percent strand rate.
When you stablize his current BABIP and LOB% to his career norms, you get the pitcher you saw in 2018 and the first few months of this season. Put another way, you are getting a bad pitcher who you need to take out of the rotation. By trading Vargas now, they’re doing just that. They’re getting the bad pitcher out of the rotation now.
Even better, they’re dumping him on the Phillies. If you want to make that miracle run to the Wild Card, weaken one of your top competitors. While a small sample size, he’s allowed batters to hit .250/.362/.563 off of him in four starts there. It’s part of the reason he has a 6.23 ERA at that ballpark. Ultimately, he should prove to be a nightmare for the Phillies over the final two months of the season.
When you break it down, Vargas isn’t good, and every team knows it. None of them are going to buy in on six starts fueled by unrepeatable peripherals. Given what we know and have seen, the Mets were always going to have to salary dump him. They were lucky they found a team.
Really, if you want to criticize the deal it is taking on a complete non-prospect who was a former collegiate teammate of Jeff Wilpon’s son. Looking at that, it looks more like a favor to a friend than an actual baseball move. An actual baseball move here would have been to identify someone at the lower levels of the minors who had potential like the Rays did when they obtained Neraldo Catalina for Wilmer Font or the Brewers did when they got Felix Valerio in the Keon Broxton deal.
Ultimately, that is the result of the Mets not scouting those levels of the minor leagues. If you want to criticize the Mets for that, you absolutely should. Their actions on that front are indefensible. However, their actions salary dumping Vargas are eminently defensible as they are a better team without him, and the Phillies are worse off with him.
Aside from the prospect cost, one of the areas in which people have evaluated the wisdom of the Marcus Stroman trade has been the Mets infield defense. It was an issue brought up by Buster Olney of ESPN, former Mets executive and SNY contributor Adam Fisher, and others. Certainly, with Stroman having a career 59.4 ground ball percentage, it is a very important consideration.
Before looking at the Mets, we should first analyze the Blue Jays defense. After all, this is the defense Stroman has pitched in front of during this season.
In total, the Blue Jays as a team have a -6 DRS which ranks them as 19th in the Major Leagues. As a team, they have a .310 BABIP, which is the sixth worst in the majors. When you look deeper into those numbers, the Blue Jays do not have a very good infield defense:
- First Base -4 DRS (24th)
- Second Base -9 DRS (27th)
- Third Base 1 DRS (16th)
- Shortstop 0 DRS (15th)
In total, this is a -12 DRS infield defense. Seeing the Blue Jays right side of the infield defense, you can see why left-handed batters are hitting .272 off of him with a .310 BABIP this year. Another factor to contemplate here is the opponent’s OPS against Stroman is 105 points higher on the turf of the Rogers Centre than anywhere else.
Now, it is fair to say the Mets infield defense has not been good. In fact, earlier this year, Mark Simon of The Athletic noted the Mets were one of the worst infield shifting teams in the majors being one of the few teams who have cost themselves runs by shifting. The Mets team defense is a -61 DRS which stands as the worst in the National League, and it has helped contribute to a .307 BABIP against Mets pitchers.
That .307 BABIP is only slightly better than the one the Blue Jays have yielded. That gives an indication as to how there is not much separation between the two clubs defensively. On that front consider the Mets regular infield defense:
- Pete Alonso -1 DRS
- Robinson Cano – 4 DRS
- Todd Frazier 2 DRS
- Amed Rosario -15 DRS
Even with Alonso and Cano being negative DRS defenders, their combined -5 DRS is significantly better than the Blue Jays -13 DRS on the right side of the infield. That should help Stroman against left-handed batters. That’s important in a division with Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Juan Soto, and Bryce Harper.
On the left side of the infield, Frazier has performed better than the Blue Jays third baseman. That gives the Mets three better defenders than what the Blue Jays typically put behind Stroman. Then there is the issue of Rosario.
At a -15 DRS this year and a -31 DRS over the past two years, Rosario has been the second worst defensive shortstop in the majors. Looking at this, it would appear this is a significant downgrade from the Blue Jays 0 DRS this season. This is damaging when you consider it is at what is considered to be the most important position on the infield.
Lost in that is how Rosario has been a much better defender of late. While it is not the best barometer of defense, it should be noted that while Rosario has 13 errors this year, third worst in the majors, he has only made one error over the past month, and that was on a ball Alonso should have had at first. Looking past that, Rosario has made just two errors since May 8.
Looking at a advanced metrics perspective, Rosario entered the All-Star Break with a Major League worst -16 DRS. That means in the 15 second half games, he has played to a positive 1 DRS. That is similar to what we saw from him when he was called up in 2017 when he had a 1 DRS over 302.0 innings.
If Rosario has figured things out, he is at or better than the 0 DRS Blue Jays shortstops have this year. With Rosario being just 23 years old, his improving defensively is a possibility no one should discount.
With Rosario playing significantly better at shortstop, the Mets defense is actually significantly better than the Blue Jays defense this year. That is an important note to consider when you see Stroman is 6-11 with a 2.96 ERA, 1.227 WHIP, and a 153 ERA+. Overall, it would seem as if Stroman coming to the Mets is actually more beneficial than pitching on the Rogers Centre turn in front of what might’ve actually been an inferior infield defense.
Before going into the weeds on the cost, it should first be noted the Mets are a much better team for getting Marcus Stroman. This is a pitcher who has pitched quite well in the AL East, and he is a pitcher with big game experience being named the World Baseball Classic MVP in addition to some really good postseason performances.
Stroman grew up a Mets fan, and as a result, the Mets are getting a player who should become a fan favorite in short order. Assuming no other moves for a moment, the Mets rotation is very clearly the best in baseball, and you can argue acquiring Stroman makes their chances of making the postseason this year significantly better.
The one ding people will bring up with Stroman is he’s reliant upon a good infield defense to be successful, and the Mets defense has not been good this year. On that note, the Blue Jays have been a below average defensive team this year with a -6 DRS with them having a -4 DRS at first, -9 DRS at second, 1 DRS at third, and a 0 DRS at shortstop. With the Mets having Todd Frazier at third and Amed Rosario playing a to positive DRS in the second half, they fair well in comparison to the Blue Jays. Eliminate the turf, and you can argue this is actually a better situation for Stroman to be even better.
Now, if the Mets were in the position the Braves were in, you understand this trade. Stroman is the piece which arguably puts the Mets over the top. When you roll out Jacob deGrom–Noah Syndergaard–Marcus Stroman–Zack Wheeler–Steven Matz in your rotation, you’re dangerous in both the regular season and post season. As for the bullpen issues, with that collection of five guys, the Mets could take a page out of Alex Cora‘s book last postseason and utilize their starters to dominate the entire series.
Stroman would be an overpay, but it would be one along the lines of the Cubs trading Gleyber Torres for Aroldis Chapman. If you win the World Series, who cares? In some ways, Stroman is even better than that because he is under control for next year as well. This not only gives you the best rotation in baseball right now, but it puts you in a position where you’ve insulated your team from losing Wheeler in the offseason.
The problem with the Mets is they’re five games under .500, and they are six games out of the division and the Wild Card. They are in real striking distance, but they also have many obstacles in their way.
The Mets have three teams ahead of them in the division, and they have four teams ahead of them in the Wild Card standings. The team just lost Dominic Smith which somehow depletes an already suspect outfield depth even further, and it also stands in the way of the Mets finding some more games for Pete Alonso, who is really struggling so far in the second half.
Speaking of depth, the Mets already suspect starting pitching depth did take a hit. On the one hand, yes, assuming no other moves, acquiring Stroman exponentially improves the depth as he’s a significant upgrade over Jason Vargas, who should now find himself in the bullpen. On that note, the bullpen also looks better. However, that assumes no other moves.
At the moment, it seems the Mets are looking to move Noah Syndergaard in a companion move to help fill out the current roster. Of note, the team still desperately needs a center fielder. It should be noted with the current rumors, Manuel Margot isn’t that guy. He’s yet to be a league average hitter in his career, and he’s a -1 DRS this year in center. On that front, it should be noted he was really good prior to this year with an 8 DRS in 2017 and a 9 DRS in 2018.
If the Mets move Syndergaard, they are again relying on Walker Lockett and Corey Oswalt to be their starting pitching depth this year and the next. Aside from one Lockett start this year, that is misplaced faith. This means the Mets need David Peterson to step up instead of hoping one of him or Anthony Kay are ready.
Like with trading Justin Dunn to the Mariners, trading Kay hurt the depth, and it deprived the organization of real starting pitching upside. It also eliminated the possibility of taking either pitcher to send them out there and try to replicate with Seth Lugo or to a lesser extent Robert Gsellman are doing.
Being fair, in the end a package headlined by Kay was a fair return for Stroman. It did make sense to gamble Kay away for the year plus of Stroman, especially if you are really going to go for it as an organization. On that note, they did not do that after trading Jarred Kelenic and Dunn in the trade for Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano. On the Cano point, the Mets are up against the luxury tax next year, and they seem to be already using it as an excuse not to add despite the team collecting tens of millions of dollars in insurance proceeds on David Wright and Yoenis Cespedes while also deferring $12 million of deGrom’s contract.
From a Mets standpoint, the part of the deal which really hurts is Simeon Woods Richardson. This is an 18 year old pitcher already pitching for a full season affiliate. He is getting his fastball up to 97 MPH with a promising and developing curve and change which could both be plus pitches. Despite being almost four years younger than the competition, he is striking out 11.1 batters per nine while having an incredible 5.71 K/BB. This is a special arm, and the Mets traded him away with a top 100 prospect for one plus year of Stroman.
On the Woods Richardson front, the Mets were beyond loaded with teenage talent heading into this year. In addition to him, the Mets had Kelenic, Ronny Mauricio, Mark Vientos, Francisco Alvarez, Shervyen Newton, Luis Santana, and others along with a pitcher like Thomas Szapucki. This was a group poised to break into the majors around 2022, and when they came up, the Mets could have really had a prolonged World Series window open.
With Brodie Van Wagenen as the General Manager, that is what he has been trading away. He has severely hampered the next window from opening. Of course, that assumes the Mets window is currently open. This is a big reason why many baseball people don’t understand this trade. This seems one of those moments like when they pulled off the Cano deal or Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano the Mets are trying to tell us they are smarter then everyone when they’re really not.
Ultimately, you may not like this trade, but you would have certainly understood it if the Mets were 10 games over .500. They’re not. This trade becomes all the more puzzling when you consider they are supposedly doing this as a precursor to trading Syndergaard. Really, when looking at the entire plan right now, none of this makes sense. It makes even less sense if you are trading Syndergaard for prospects because the Mets just obtained one plus year of Stroman and not five.
Overall, this was an overpay for Stroman, and depending on what the Mets do now, it could be a completely unforced error. Typically in these moments, you like to sit and wait before passing judgment on the total plan, but considering how Van Wagenen has lost every trade he’s made thus far, there shouldn’t be much hope this was the first strike in what is one grand master plan.
In essence, enjoy Stroman while he’s a Met. He’s a fun player and really good pitcher who is coming home to pitch for the team he rooted for when he was growing up. Also, root for another hometown kid in Kay and hope Woods Richardson fulfills his potential. Root for everyone to succeed because it helps the Mets in the short term, and it will also help in the long run to remind the Mets that they’re really not better at this than everyone else. They have been and will continue to be considerably worse until Jeff Wilpon realizes he’s the problem.