Baseball is finally back, and the Mets offense looked like they haven’t played a game since September losing 2/3 to the Braves.
1. Jacob deGrom is still the best pitcher on that planet.
2. And Seth Lugo is still the best reliever.
3. Yoenis Cespedes homering on Opening Day to help give the Mets a 1-0 victory may be the highlight of the season . . . especially if the backend of the rotation will be this bad.
4. Mets two best hitters so far this year are Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto, and it’s quite likely it stays that way.
5. With the exception of the Braves offense going bezerk yesterday, it appears the juiced ball is gone. That’s going to be a problem for some of the Mets hitters who relied upon it.
6. If J.D. Davis is in the lineup for his bat, he has to hit, or at least have more hits than Jake Marisnick does in part time duty.
7. That goes double when his defense is that bad. It’s already turned a single into a double and an out into a game altering RBI double.
8. No, you don’t want to overreact to a slow start, but remember a three game set is the equivalent of eight games. That’s over a week of the season.
9. On that note, Porcello was bad last year, and Davis was extraordinarily lucky with his hitting a juiced ball. These two are more than worth monitoring and having a short leash.
10. As for Porcello, he’s locked in the rotation because the Mets have no starting pitching depth. That, and there’s no way the Mets bench him and his prorated $10 million.
11. One of these days, Corey Oswalt will be given a legitimate opportunity to succeed. Last night, being rushed to warm up and brought into the middle of an inning when he was supposed to be preparing to start on Tuesday isn’t remotely giving him a fair shake.
12. Aside from Oswalt imploding, the Mets bullpen looked really good with Jeurys Familia rediscovering his power sinker.
13. Early on, it looks like Justin Wilson is going to be a reliever Luis Rojas really trusts. With the way he pitched last year, and his first two performances this year, you can’t blame him.
14. One nit to pick with Rojas is he needs some consistency. You can’t let Wilson Ramos run the bases with three catchers but pinch run for Cespedes with two outs and a runner on first. It doesn’t make sense to make wholesale defensive changes and leave Dominic Smith on the bench.
15. On that point, use Tomas Nido or Rene Rivera with Edwin Diaz. For a multitude of reasons, the Diaz/Ramos pairing just is not working.
16. Diaz’s stuff has looked great. However, that was a bad pitch to Marcell Ozuna. He threw five straight pitches to that side of the plate, and the previous day he went there to strike Ozuna out. Ozuna couldn’t have had a better idea what that pitch was going to be even if he was a Houston Astro.
17. That spoiled a GREAT start from Steven Matz who has seemingly taken another step forward from his second half turnaround. That added velocity and improved change makes him a legit number two instead of the one he is on paper.
18. Mets are going nowhere if Marcus Stroman‘s injury is serious.
19. We have seen Travis d’Arnaud and Tyler Flowers miss this series with COVID19 symptoms. Marlins catcher Jorge Alfaro tested positive along with some teammates. It appears with catchers unable to socially distance during games, they are the players facing the brunt of the COVID19 risks.
20. It’s great having baseball back even with the universal DH and extra inning rules bastardizing the game. On the later, with all four extra inning games ending in the 10th, Rob Manfred may really push for that rule to stay. Naturally, the universal DH fans who love gimmicks to produce offense must love that.
Game Recaps
Zack Wheeler desperately wanted to stay with the Mets. Brodie Van Wagenen wasn’t interested, and he went so far as to say what Wheeler signed for with the Phillies didn’t match how the Mets valued him.
Why be magnanimous about a very good pitcher who time and again made it clear he wanted to be a Met? Why avoid giving a starter in your division bulletin board material? Those are questions for another day.
The overarching question is what was Brodie thinking? He really signed Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha instead of Wheeler. In Porcello’s first start, we saw it for the mistake it was.
Porcello wasn’t good, but he wasn’t quite as bad as his final line seemed.
The Braves got to Porcello with two in the first, and he escaped trouble in the second by getting Ronald Acuna to hit into an inning ending double play. If you had any hopes that meant his sinker was working, they’d be quickly dashed.
It began with Jeff McNeil making an error allowing Ozzie Albies to reach safely. Then, with the Mets apparently being deathly afraid of Freddie Freeman (with good reason), Porcello walked him. Then disaster struck.
Marcell Ozuna doubled to put the Braves up 3-1, and Matt Adams walked. At that point, the Mets were still in it. Then, J.D. Davis completely misplayed what was a routine play for a left fielder into a two RBI double for Dansby Swanson.
Doubles By Dansby™️#ForTheA pic.twitter.com/X7oF1bUArA
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) July 27, 2020
Instead of it being 4-1 with one out, it was 5-1 with no outs and runners on second and third. With that, Porcello’s night was done, and the Mets night was effectively over.
Corey Oswalt was thrust into a relief role instead of preparing for a start against the Red Sox. Again, he was put in a position to fail, and he did. He’d allow inherited runners to score along with a few of his own. On the bright side, he ate four innings saving the pen a bit.
When all was said and done, it was 14-1 Braves with the only Mets run being driven in by ninth place hitter Brandon Nimmo. Nimmo batted ninth because of the left-handed starter Sean Newcomb.
Newcomb was terrible in his own right, but he was bailed out by an overly aggressive Mets lineup. This is the same lineup which was assembled due to their bats while punting defense. They punted defense with a starter with a low strike out rate and is coming off a season where he had the worst ERA in the AL.
You can point a lot of fingers tonight. No matter where you point them, make sure you point them at the GM. This is exactly how he designed the team, and it failed like anyone else could’ve predicted.
Game Notes: Tomas Nido started over Wilson Ramos. He scored on the Nimmo double. Davis is 1-for-10 on the season.
In the first two games of the season, Luis Rojas brought in Jake Marisnick and Andres Gimenez for defense. For some reason, despite the Mets putting out most of their best defenders, Rojas stopped short at catcher.
It’s not unusual for a team to stick with a vastly inferior defensive catcher. Part of that is the fear of losing a catcher even if that rarely happens.
And Wilson Ramos is a vastly inferior defender to Tomas Nido and Rene Rivera. In addition to that, we see time and again he doesn’t work well with Edwin Diaz.
While CERA is a highly flawed stat, we see Diaz has a 6.07 ERA pitching to Ramos. That’s the second worst he’s had with any catcher and the worst with any catcher who’s caught him at least 14.0 innings.
When we dig into the numbers there are a few reasons to explain this. Chief among them is Ramos’ inability to get the low strike. It’s something which impacted Noah Syndergaard, and it caused Syndergaard to try to get a personal catcher.
As we see with Baseball Savant, Diaz’s real weapon is his slider. Both that and his fastball are great pitches. However, for his slider to be effective, it needs to be low in the zone. When you can’t get it called a strike, a batter can spit on it forcing Diaz to have to bring it up making it more hittable. That happened all of last year.
With his fastball, Diaz has to move it around. He can throw it in all three zones, and really, if he needs to pound the slider down, he needs the fastball to change eye level and side of the plate. That brings us to his blown save yesterday.
(Image from MLB.com)
In the moment, many commented Diaz just got beat by Marcell Ozuna on a good pitch. After all, it was 98 MPH on the black. Batters aren’t supposed to hit that. So, why did he hit it?
First off, it should be noted it wasn’t that good of a pitch. Just because it was 98 MPH doesn’t de facto make it a good pitch. Yes, it was on the corner, but it was also belt high. Professional hitters, especially very good ones like Ozuna, crush belt high fastballs.
The biggest reason why it wasn’t that good of a pitch and why Ozuna was able to jump on it was Diaz and Ramos basically telegraphed where the pitch was going to be. The last five pitches of that at-bat were all towards the outside corner. Give a batter like Ozuna the location and put the pitch belt high, and he’s going to crush it.
These are the situations which led Diaz to allowing a Major League record for most ninth inning homers last year. A veteran catcher needs to make sure his pitcher isn’t telegraphing pitches like this. A team needs to make sure a catcher isn’t negating their closer’s biggest strength.
Yesterday, the Mets brought in Marisnick for defense. They brought in Gimenez for defense. Neither could make a play on a ball hit over the right field wall. That homer made those defensive changes superfluous.
It’s time the Mets realize if they’re going to make these wholesale defensive changes, they need to not stop short at catcher. They need a good defensive catcher behind the plate who can get the low strike and ensure the pitcher is moving the ball around the plate.
Essentially, the Mets need a catcher who will let Diaz be Diaz.
In the end, if you’re going to give up Jarred Kelenic to go get him, it just seems plain stupid and ignorant to not give up one inning of Ramos per game. The Mets went all-in to get Diaz. Now, it’s time to go all-in on helping him succeed.
Luis Rojas and the Mets had done nearly everything right, and they were one strike away from going to 2-0 on the season.
Steven Matz was brilliant over six innings allowing just a homer to Adam Duvall. It was only one of the two hits he allowed while he struck out seven.
He got a lead in the fifth on a rally started by the same Michael Conforto we’re all told can’t hit lefties hit a double off Braves left-handed starter Max Fried. Conforto scored on an Amed Rosario RBI triple, and Rosario scored on a Jeff McNeil sacrifice fly.
Jeurys Familia was great out of the bullpen flashing the same power sinker which made him a great closer. Dellin Betances had a rocky debut for the Mets, but it didn’t hurt that Mets for a few reasons.
First, Rojas went to Justin Wilson to face Matt Adams. When Adams singled, it didn’t score a run because in the top of the eighth, Rojas brought in Jake Marisnick for defense. If that’s Brandon Nimmo in center, Adams single goes for extra bases and ties the score. Instead, the Mets got out of the inning with the lead.
Now, there were some questionable decisions. After Wilson Ramos led off the seventh with a single, Rojas didn’t pinch run for him even with the Mets having three catchers. Ramos was stranded at third (even if his speed wasn’t really the reason).
What made that interesting was in the eighth with two outs Rojas did pinch run Eduardo Nunez for Yoenis Cespedes. Nunez would steal second, but he would be stranded there. He was stranded there because in his first MLB at-bat Andres Gimenez.
Gimenez was brought in for defense for Robinson Cano even with Cano due up fourth. It’s not a bad decision, but you do wonder why not Luis Guillorme there when he had a good year last year, especially in those spots.
Despite all that, the Mets had a 2-1 lead in the ninth, and Edwin Diaz was looking great. He got the first two Braves out with ease, and he was 3-2 with Marcell Ozuna before making an okay pitch.
9th inning. 2 outs. Full count.⁰⁰
Take it away Marcell!#ForTheA pic.twitter.com/5porHr9LTW
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) July 25, 2020
For those defending the pitch, EVERY PITCH OF THE AT-BAT WAS ON THE OUTSIDE CORNER. Ozuna knew exactly the location allowing him the advantage of knowing to go the other way. You go belt high to a batter knowing the location, bad things are going to happen.
In the bottom of the ninth, the Mets had runners on first and second with one out, but neither Nimmo (who batted ninth) nor McNeil could drive in the game winning run.
In the tenth, we saw that ridiculous new rule putting a runner put on second to start the inning. That runner scored immediately when Hunter Strickland allowed an RBI single to Dansby Swanson. Strickland wasn’t good at all. By the time he allowed a RBI double to William Contreras, the Braves fourth string catcher, it was 5-2.
Honestly, when you look at this game, Diaz was not the only player to blow it.
Nimmo and McNeil twice had runners in scoring position in the late innings, and they failed to deliver the needed insurance run. They also failed to capitalize in the bottom of the 10th.
The Mets loaded the bases with no outs against Luke Jackson in his second inning of work. Instead of Cespedes up, it was Nunez, who hit a shallow fly. Dominic Smith pinch hit for Gimenez and hit a sacrifice fly pulling the Mets to within 5-3.
That would be the final score with Ramos, who was not pinch run for, grounding out to end the game. That groundout came on the heels of some interesting (if not questionable) decisions. It came on the heels of a number of blown chances.
In a normal season, a loss like this feels devastating. In a season where a game is equivalent to 2.7 games, it may actually be devastating.
Game Notes: Last year, Diaz had a 13.50 ERA with zero days of rest, and he had a 6.14 ERA pitching to Ramos. J.D. Davis has started the year 0-for-6 with two strikeouts.
On the eve of the season, there was an agreement for the MLB postseason in 2020 to be expanded to 16 teams (eight teams per league). While this may be a shock to people, especially those who still don’t like the Wild Card, for this season, it makes sense.
Due to a myriad of factors, the 60 game season was the best we could do. That’s just 37% of a typical Major League Baseball season. As we have learned, you really get no feel for how good or bad a team truly is over 60 game stretches.
For example, the World Series champion Washington Nationals were 27-33 (.450) over the first 60 games of the 2019 season. In the middle of June, they would win five straight and nine of 11. That would start a 60 game streak which would see them go 41-19 (.683). Overall, the Nationals were 93-69 (.574).
Of course, this shows they were not as good as they were during their best 60 game stretch, and they were not as bad as they were during their worst 60 game stretch. As these things usually go, they were somewhere in the middle albeit closer to their best stretch.
This is not unusual for teams at all. Even the worst teams in baseball have good 60 game stretches, and the best teams have poor 60 game stretches. That is the beauty of the 162 game season. We get a true feel for who exactly are the best teams in the sport. When you are able to get that, you know your postseason is really among the best teams in the sport.
In 2020, we don’t know that at all. As we see with the Nationals, the World Series champions would’ve missed the postseason this year with a poor 60 game stretch. Conversely, the Angels could’ve made the postseason. From May 25 – July 31, the Angels had a 60 games stretch where they went 34-26. That could have propelled them into the postseason under the current rules. Remember, this is an Angels team which finished 18 games under .500 last year.
That’s why an expanded postseason is necessary. There needs to be some form of a mitigation against the randomness of a 60 game schedule. MLB should permit for the best teams to get a crack at winning a World Series even if they did get off to a slow start. It’s the best way to handle not having the games truly necessary to determine which are the best teams.
There’s another reason for the expanded postseason. Baseball fans were deprived of the sport for nearly nine months because of this pandemic. If you can give those fans even two more games for the best-of-three opening series, it is well worth it. Let them have some chance to see their favorite team for a few more games before the sport goes away again for who knows how long? After all, there is still no vaccine.
So yes, expand the 2020 postseason in an effort to truly identify the best team. Expand the postseason to allow fans to just get that much more baseball. However, leave this for just 2020 as there is no need to expand the postseason to incorporate potentially mediocre to under .500 teams after we’ve had a full 162 game season to truly determine the best teams in the sport.
The last we saw the Mets Dominic Smith was hitting a walk-off extra inning homer against the Braves. So much has happened since then, including but not limited to a pandemic. About nine months later, the Mets and Braves were back squaring off at Citi Field.
With this matchup it seemed like the Mets picked up where they left off. That was the case with Jacob deGrom who pitched like his Cy Young self.
deGrom began the game just throwing 100 MPH with ease. The Braves just could not put up much of a fight against him. Even when Marcell Ozuna, a good MLB hitter, got up 3-0 in the count, deGrom still dispatched him with ease.
Overall, deGrom was limited to just five innings because it’s the first start after the revamp of the season. He’d allow just one hit and one walk while striking out eight. Of course, with this being deGrom, he had a no decision.
Part of the reason was Mike Soroka started for the Braves. Soroka emerged as a future ace in his rookie year last year. Soroka was good . . . and lucky.
In the first two innings, the Mets got the lead-off hitter on only for the runner to be erased on a double play. Ender Inciarte robbed both J.D. Davis and Jeff McNeil of potential RBI extra base hits. There was also a bad McNeil base running gaffe.
While the Mets offense was getting shut down, the combination of deGrom and Seth Lugo was doing the same to the Braves.
Lugo mowed down the Braves in the sixth, but he’d have to come up big in the seventh. Ozuna hit it sharp to left. With a better defender, it might’ve been a single, but the Mets don’t care about defense.
After his one out double, Ozuna took third when Wilson Ramos, who had not caught in a week due to his attending to personal issues, whiffed on a pitch.
The Mets brought the infield in, and we saw one of the most unique plays you’ll ever see. Matt Adams, who was recently released by the Mets, was the Braves DH. He hit a sharp grounder to the right side. McNeil, who flipped from third to second with the shift, fielded the ball and walked it to first for the extremely rare five unassisted at first.
After that unique play, Lugo struck out Austin Riley to get out of the jam. That put Lugo in line for the win in the event the Mets could score at least one run.
Enter Yoenis Cespedes.
Cespedes was back after double heel surgery and a wild boar attack. He was inserted in the lineup as the first ever DH Mets DH in a game between two NL teams. After a pop out and ground out against Soroka, he faced Chris Martin.
? YOOOOOO! #LGM pic.twitter.com/04dst7PbT9
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 24, 2020
Right there, the Mets were up 1-0 with a homer we honestly would’ve expected from Cespedes years ago. These were the moments he thrived, and at least today, he seemed primed to be that player again.
What’s fascinating is Cespedes became the first ever DH to record a hit, homer, and RBI in a game between two NL teams. Believe it or not, he has now homered in three straight games.
Cespedes' last three games:
May 13, 2018
July 20, 2018
July 24, 2020He homered in all three.
— Jacob Resnick (@Jacob_Resnick) July 24, 2020
The Mets pitching, which was excellent, made that 1-0 lead hold up. Justin Wilson worked around a lead-off single in the eighth to pitch a scoreless inning.
Edwin Diaz issued a one out walk to Freddie Freeman in the ninth. In case you had fear this was going to be the same Diaz who imploded all of last year, he’d quash those concerns by striking out Ozuna and Adams on seven pitches to end the game.
The Mets pitching was phenomenal in this win. They combined to shut out the Braves allowing just three hits and two walks while striking out 15. The Braves had no chance today.
When the Mets pitching is at this level, they don’t need much. Last year, they don’t get that run. This year, they have Cespedes. That may be all they need.
Game Notes: The Mets won their first challenge of the season when McNeil was incorrectly ruled out when stretching a single to a double. The play caused Keith Hernandez to quip about the umpire, “Get an eye chart!” Matt Adams made MLB history by being the first DH to have a PA in a game between two NL teams. The Mets wore Black Lives Matter shirts (before the game but did not kneel for the anthem.
Marcus Stroman and Yoenis Cespedes are among the Mets wearing Black Lives Matter shirts during warmups @STR0 @ynscspds pic.twitter.com/sNitMLXBoD
— SNY (@SNYtv) July 24, 2020
Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo wore “Love Thy Neighbor” shirts instead of the Black Lives Matter shirts.
Later today, for the 14th time in Mets history, the starting pitcher toeing the rubber to start the season will be the same one who started the season the previous year. Can you name the pitchers who have accomplished this feat? Good luck!
Roger Craig Al Jackson Tom Seaver Craig Swan Dwight Gooden Bobby Jones Al Leiter Tom Glavine Johan Santana Noah Syndergaard Jacob deGrom
Prior to Opening Day, Nationals left fielder Juan Soto tested positive for COVID19. It should be noted he was not quarantined away from his teammates in the time period between his test and the discovery of the positive results. We also do not know how long he had been infected prior to his test. On that note, players are tested every 48 hours, and they received results 24 – 48 hours later.
Soto has been in the clubhouse and dugout around his teammates. He has been working out in the outfield. In exhibition games, he was in close proximity to Orioles catchers Bryan Holaday, Pedro Severino, and Austin Wynns. He was within six feet of home plate umpire Larry Vanover and Ramon De Jesus. He also came into contact with other umpires and Orioles players.
At this moment, we really have no idea how Soto became exposed and infected with COVID19. We also don’t know if he has spread the disease to anyone. All we know is he has it, and we are waiting with baited breath to see if he has spread the disease.
While we are not quite sure if he has infected other teammates, the Nationals are set to play the Yankees on Opening Day today. Soto’s teammates will come into contact with Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez. They will run past Luke Voit and perhaps the other infielders.
The Yankees players will stand at home plate near Kurt Suzuki, and they will be at first base near Eric Thames. They will come in contact or come near other Nationals players whom we have no idea if they’re infected. As far as we know, Clint Frazier is the only Yankees player who wears a mask at home plate. Perhaps knowing Soto was infected, that will change. Perhaps, it won’t.
The only thing we know right now is Soto has COVID19. We don’t know if he caught it from another player awaiting results. We do not know if he has infected another player who is awaiting results. We don’t know how much of a threat there is that the Nationals players have been infected by their teammate or if someone could be infecting a Yankees player tonight.
This is the exact situation Major League Baseball and the players want to avoid. For everyone’s health, and the sake of the 2020 season, they better hope they found out Soto’s results in time to prevent the spread of infection. If not, things are going to get messy for the Nationals, Yankees, and all of Major League Baseball in very short order.
This is a season like none other. It’s a 60 game sprint with few off days. The threat of normal injuries are heightened by these few off days and sprint to get ready again for the season. There’s also the threat of COVID19 which can wipe out a player’s season, the bulk of a team’s roster, and quite possibly the entire season.
Before going to the divisions and Wild Cards, lets first focus on the Mets. If the season started on time, they were a real threat to win the division. Their chances have now been severely hampered.
With Noah Syndergaard going down, Michael Wacha was thrust into the rotation. This is the same Wacha with shoulder issues and couldn’t even average five innings per start last year.
Things got much worse for the rotation with Marcus Stroman‘s injury, which is hopefully not serious. When he’s out, one of the best two starters in the game is going to be replaced by a not ready or Quad-A starter. That’s a huge drop-off.
There are also bullpen injuries and question marks. Combining the Mets pitching issues, their purposeful playing a bad defensive team, and not playing their best players, this might be a fourth place team.
That’s a reflection of the division strength too. By no means should we be surprised if the Mets win the division or grab a Wild Card. That goes double if MLB expands the postseason. This team does have a lot of talent and can get insanely hot despite their significant flaws.
That principle applies to all 30 teams. They could get insanely hot and/or other teams could deal with significant injuries/illnesses. With all those caveats in mind, here’s my 2020 division winner projections:
AL East – Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays know better than anyone how to bullpen. They’re built for it at a time when teams are likely going to have to do some form of it for up to a month.
This is a smart organization who has probably game-planned for this better than any other organization. This should help them edge past an injury prone Yankees team and exciting young Blue Jays team who still doesn’t know where they’re playing.
AL Central – Cleveland Indians
When everyone is searching for pitching, the Indians have a surplus of starters. They also have perhaps the best manager in the game in Terry Francona. Combine that with MVP level players like Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, they should have enough to fend off the exciting young Chicago White Sox and the Minnesota Twins who won the division last year.
AL West – Oakland Athletics
Like the Rays, this is a team built for bullpenning in a season where all teams will likely have to do some form of it. They have Matt Olson and Matt Chapman at the corners too. Also, not to be too snarky here, but also like the Rays, they’re one of the teams most accustomed to playing with little to no fans. This won’t be a huge shock for them.
This is not a reflection on the Astros not being able to bang the garbage cans anymore. They remain a very good team, and Dusty Baker is the perfect manager to lead them now. No one should be surprised if they win the division.
The same could be said for the Angels who are in a good spot to surprise everyone.
NL East – Philadelphia Phillies
Arguably, no team improved more than the Phillies. They added an ace in Zack Wheeler, and they have Didi Gregorius at SS. Additionally, they’ll have a full season of Andrew McCuthchen. They also had a massive upgrade at manager going from Gabe Kapler to Joe Girardi. On that point, Girardi is one of the best at using his bullpen, a skill which will be at a premium this season.
The Phillies get the edge here with the Braves and Nationals having players sick and/or opting out of the season. Again, this is a tight division top-to-bottom where any team but the Marlins could win the division.
NL Central – Milwaukee Brewers
Like with the Rays and Athletics, this team knows how to bullpen better than anyone. They also have Christian Yelich powering the offense and “full” season of Keston Hiura. The Brewers are built for a season like this.
That should edge them ahead of the Reds who have the starting pitching and the Cardinals who have a lot of question marks.
NL West – Los Angeles Dodgers
The best team in baseball added Mookie Betts this past offseason. Someone they have an outfield with Betts and Cody Bellinger. You have to conjure problems with this team whose depth is a huge asset in a season where any team could deal with injury and illness. If you’re choosing a team other than them, you’re trying too hard.
As for the Wild Cards, it’s tough to tell for a myriad of reasons including not knowing how many there will be. On that note, you figure just about any team but the Marlins, Orioles, and Tigers have a shot at grabbing a Wild Card spot.
Overall, these predictions are best guesses at what will be a baseball season like none other. Some will be right, some will be wrong. Ultimately, it’s just great baseball is back. Let’s just hope everyone stays healthy and safe.
With Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman going down, the Mets need a fifth starter. Whenever the Mets need a starter, the debate once again turns to whether Seth Lugo should be put back in the rotation.
Certainly, you can understand the impetus. Lugo was a revelation in the rotation in 2016, and without him in the rotation, the Mets very likely miss the postseason. We also saw him back that up by being the ace for Puerto Rico in the 2017 World Baseball Classic.
We know Lugo can start, and we know he can be extremely good in the rotation. We also know Lugo is one of, if not the best, reliever in baseball. It’s extremely difficult to part with that.
The Mets starting pitching and bullpen injuries make it even tougher to remove Lugo from the bullpen.
At the moment, the Mets rotation only has three reliable starters in deGrom, Steven Matz, and Rick Porcello. While reliable, past deGrom, that’s not a lot of innings.
In 2019, Matz averaged 5.1 innings per start. Things improved in the second half when he moved to the middle of the runner. After that, he did average 5.2 innings per start. That’s still under 6.0, but he did make strides towards at least being a six inning pitcher.
Porcello also averaged 5.1 innings per start. That was after averaging 5.2 innings per start the previous year. Looking at his career, Porcello’s innings have declined in each of the last three years. That’s a bad trend for a pitcher the Mets need to be an innings eater.
That means two of the Mets three best pitchers don’t consistently pitch at least six innings. That leaves the bullpen getting 10-11 outs during their starts. That should prove to be a break compared to the fourth and fifth spots.
Last year, Michael Wacha averaged just 4.2 innings per start. Over the final three months of the season, he pitched into the fifth just three times over 11 starts. In his career, he’s never averaged more than 5.2 innings per start. This is from the fourth starter.
After that, the Mets are stuck going to Corey Oswalt, David Peterson, or bullpenning it. The young starters can’t be relied upon to consistently go deep into games. That puts a further burden on the pen, and that gets worse with planned bullpen games.
Further compounding a bullpen game is the lack of people who can go multiple innings consistently. Robert Gsellman was that guy, but he’s injured. Effectively speaking, that leaves Lugo as the only reliever who can consistently give the Mets multiple innings out of the pen.
That goes to another point. The Mets rotation isn’t the only part of this staff beset with injuries. Brad Brach and Jared Hughes will begin the year on the IL.
Really, a lot of the Mets bullpen is a question mark. Can Edwin Diaz and Jeurys Familia rebound from bad 2019 seasons? Will Justin Wilson‘s elbow hold up? Can Dellin Betances return to his dominant pre-injury form?
There’s just far too many questions in the bullpen and far too few innings in the rotation. Asking any bullpen to have to cover 10-12+ outs four out of ever five days is a monumental ask. It’s even worse with few off days.
Fact is, at the moment, the Mets need Lugo in the pen. He’s really the Mets only option who can pitch multiple innings. He’s the best reliever on the team.
Really, Lugo is the best option out of the pen. At a time when the Mets need the bullpen to take on a tough workload due to the schedule, they should have Lugo at the ready to get those innings as it’s not coming from another reliever.
Overall, Lugo may be the best option for fifth starter. He’s also the best reliever the Mets have. They need him out otherwise. In any event, Lugo is where he belongs – in that bullpen.