When we talk about the New York Yankees, we’re talking about the most storied franchise of all of professional sports. This is the franchise of Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio, Yogi Berra, Mickey Mantle, Derek Jeter, and Mariano Rivera.
This is a franchise which has accomplished more than any other franchise in Major League history.
Most Hall of Famers (27). Most World Series (27). Most pennants (40). Most MVPs (22). Most wins in a World Series winning season (114). Really, when you break it down they hold nearly every important record and accomplished almost every significant feat there is in baseball history.
Thanks to Randy Arozarena, Charlie Morton, and all of the 2020 Tampa Bay Rays that also includes being the only team in MLB history to blow a 3-0 series lead.
Congratulations New York Yankees! Another one of your records are still in tact.
Oh, and a special cap tip to Jeter. This year, he was not only the only Hall of Fame position player to see his team blow a 3-0 series lead, but he was also the only Marlins CEO to lose a postseason series.
Like when Bobby Thompson hit the Shot Heard Round the World off Ralph Branca, the Houston Astros cheated and changed the course of baseball history.
Like the Giants, the Astros used their cheating system to win a pennant. They did better than the 1951 Giants by winning the World Series. In their wake, they’ve left Yu Darvish trying to mentally rebuild his career, and Clayton Kershaw, who was phenomenal in an 11 strikeout Game 1 win, is still answering questions about his postseason struggles.
Throughout it all, we haven’t seen any Astros players show more than the perfunctory show of remorse. Instead, in reality, they’re Liberace laughing all the way to the bank.
If there was any doubt their apologies was nothing more than mere lip service, Carlos Correa confirmed it when he said, “I know a lot of people are mad. I know a lot of people don’t want to see us here, but what are they going to say now?” after the Astros swept the Twins in the best-of-three Wild Card series.
They’re unrepentant for their actions, and thanks to Rob Manfred, they haven’t been punished for their crimes. Even when we see players try to police the game on the field, we see Joe Kelly get a huge suspension while Manfred looked the other way on the Astros purposefully violating COVID19 protocols.
Somehow the Astros came out of this process feeling like they’re the aggrieved party. Instead, they come across as unrepentant jerks who don’t realize they were an under .500 team.
Yes, in terms of their postseason play, they’ve put themselves in the position to become just the second ever team to force a Game 7 in LCS play after falling down 3-0. Outside of Houston, no one is rooting for them to do it.
Between the suspensions they didn’t face, the sub .500 record, and Manfred’s compulsive need to shield them from retaliation, they don’t deserve to be here. Well, that’s true for only the core players from that 2017 World Series winning team.
Their manager, Dusty Baker, definitely deserves it, and you can’t help but cheer for the man.
Baker, the man who literally invented the high five, has been all that has been good about baseball since his debut as a player in 1968. He’s been a great teammate and the consummate leader. Somehow, as a manager, he hasn’t been given the respect he’s due.
Over time, he’s taken way too much heat for removing Russ Ortiz from Game 6 of the 2002 World Series. It was a 5-0 game in the seventh, and the Angels were threatening. Ortiz was nearing 100 pitches, Baker went to Felix Hernandez, who was lights out that postseason.
He then went to Tim Worrell, who had a seven appearance stretch of not allowing a run. The players were put in the spot to win, and they didn’t. In the end, Baker bore the blame.
It was the same in Chicago, Cincinnati, and Washington. Baker brought them to the postseason, but somehow, that wasn’t good enough for those franchises. It shouldn’t have been lost on anyone each of those teams suffered in the season ensuing after Baker’s termination.
Through it all, Baker has handled it all with dignity and class. While he may have lamented not getting more of an opportunity, he didn’t pin the blame on his players whom he always treated with the utmost respect, and in turn, got great performances in return.
If anyone deserves this victory tonight, it’s Baker. Despite his being a three time Manager of the Year and having taken five different teams to the postseason, he somehow needs this win to cement his legacy. He may need it to get into the Hall of Fame like he so richly deserves.
Overall, while this Astros team is as unlikeable and it gets, you can’t help but pull for Dusty Baker. He’s one of the greatest managers in baseball history and an even better person. If anyone deserves this pennant, it’s him.
At least a small part of you should hope he gets it.
Make no mistake, Steven Matz was an unmitigated disaster in 2020. He had a very good start on the second day of the season, but he just kept getting worse and worse.
He had a 44 ERA+ and a 7.76 FIP. He allowed 4.1 homers per nine. His 9.68 ERA was unseemly.
Under no circumstances would you tender a pitcher like him a contract. You non-tender him and make decisions from there. However, the Mets are not really in a position to non-tender him, and aside from that, it would be unwise to non-tender him.
For starters, the free agent starting pitching market is a mess. Beyond Marcus Stroman and Trevor Bauer, the pitchers available are really not guaranteed to be any better than what Matz could give you on what will essentially be a one year deal.
As an organization, you’re in a better position to take a pitcher you know and work with him than go with another pitcher and start from square one. On that note, the Mets should be better equipped to get Matz right.
Entering next season, Steve Cohen has promised to beef up the Mets analytics departments and to upgrade the Mets technology. This means Jeremy Hefner, Jeremy Accardo, and even Phil Regan have more at their disposal to get Matz pitching to how we know he can.
We’ve seen that Matz not too long ago. In the second half of the 2019 season, he seemingly turned the corner.
While working with Regan and Accardo, Matz finished the season going 6-4 with a 3.46 ERA over his final 13 starts. This wasn’t a complete anomaly for Matz. At different points of his career, he’s shown this ability.
Matz was this good in 2015 through the first half of 2017. Again, he had a strong first half in 2018.
There’s a lot you can take away from this. It’s certainly possible injuries took their toll. Maybe, even to this point, he’s battling inconsistency. It’s also possible the Mets increasingly worse defense have had an impact on him. There’s many possible theories and explanations which can be proffered.
Lost in any of them is Matz is a good pitcher who has shown the ability to be a quality Major League starter. For a brief moment, it did appear as if 2020 was going to be the year he took his game to the next level.
During Spring Training, there were reports of his having increased velocity and being ahead of where he’s been in previous seasons.
The first thing Luis Rojas mentioned about Steven Matz's performance in Camp: his increased velocity.
Said he's been mid-to-upper 90s with really good velo differential on his curveball.
"I was pumped," Rojas said.
— Jacob Resnick (@Jacob_Resnick) July 21, 2020
The best pitcher in baseball, Jacob deGrom, was impressed with Matz before the 2020 started saying Matz was pitching “maybe the best I’ve seen him in a long time.” (William Bradford Davis, New York Daily News). He also said of Matz, “I think the upside’s unbelievable.”
That’s the real issue with Matz – the upside is there. It’s incumbent on them to unlock it.
Again, based on the free agent market, there’s not a definitive better option. Also, due to Brodie Van Wagenen’s stripping the Mets pitching depth for no good reason, there’s no one coming through the Mets pipeline to help in 2021.
That leaves keeping Matz as a necessity. They need to figure him out, or possibly, make him a left-handed Seth Lugo in the bullpen. With the state Van Wagenen will be leaving the Mets, that’s it.
Matz is a real asset. With Cohen, they’ll have the people and technology in place to help Matz take his game to the next level. With Sandy Alderson, they have the people in place who were able to help get consistent performances from Matz.
In the end, the Mets need Matz. They should be preparing to tender him a deal and set him up for his best season yet. If for no other reason, there’s really no better option available.
The Mets need to learn their lesson from last offseason. The attitude was let Mookie Betts play out his contract, and then have the Mets sign him as a free agent once Steve Cohen takes over.
The problem with that line of thinking is you risk a player signing an extension, which is exactly what Betts did. We went to a team in the Dodgers who were happy to hand him a blank check.
If you’re a team who does not go out and get Francisco Lindor, you’re assuming the very same risk. The Mets should not be assuming that risk.
The counter-argument is the Mets don’t need Lindor. After all, Andres Gimenez had an impressive rookie season. Amed Rosario, while being lost at the plate this year, was significantly improved defensively. This is all true while also missing the point.
In 2020, the Mets finished in last place with a 26-34 record. During the course of the year, one thing which should have been made abundantly clear was this Mets team isn’t good enough to win right now. In fact, if the last two years are any gauge, they’re not all that close.
What they Mets need is better players across the diamond. It’s not just a catcher, center field, and pitching issue. Really, aside from the first base glut with Pete Alonso and Dominic Smith and the two corner outfield spots, the Mets seem desperate for upgrades and shifting of players to new positions.
Yes, the Mets could use an upgrade at shortstop when Lindor is the player available.
Since his MLB debut in 2015, Lindor has been a top three player in the sport. He’s been the best infielder, and he’s the best middle infielder by a healthy margin. He is literally everything you want in a baseball player.
By DRS, he’s been the fourth best defensive SS in the game since 2015. By wRC+, he’s the seventh best hitter. Overall, there’s no one better at short than him.
That includes Gimenez and Rosario, and it’s a wide margin between him and those two. By obtaining Lindor, you’re making a significant push towards closing the talent gap in the NL East.
Let’s look at it another way. Since his breakout season in 2017, Lindor has been a .276/.341/.503 hitter. In the three previous seasons, he’s averaged 42 doubles, three triples, and 34 homers.
No shortstop in the history of the New York Mets have ever put up these kinds of numbers. They’ve never done it on a one year career year, and they’ve certainly never come close putting up these numbers on an annual basis. When you think about it, over the 58 year history of the Mets, it’s takes their shortstops 2-3 years to put up the extra base hits Lindor can do in one year.
Here’s another way to examine it. Lindor has a 118 wRC+ since 2017. Over that time frame, only Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, and Brandon Nimmo (Alonso didn’t qualify) have a better offensive production.
Over that time frame, Mets shortstops Gabe a 90 wRC+. Getting Lindor would make the Mets lineup deeper and more dangerous. They’ll also be doing that while having a Gold Glove caliber player at the position.
There is no doubt Lindor makes the Mets a significantly improved team. There also should be no doubt he’ll come at a high price. If he’s willing to sign an extension, nearly any price would be worth it. He’s that good.
Anytime you can get a future Hall of Famer in his prime, you have to do it. It is a game changer for the organization, and it can bring your team to another level.
The Mets are certainly familiar with that concept. Gary Carter helped them win a World Series. Mike Piazza took them to back-to-back postseasons. Carlos Beltran helped lead the Mets to one at-bat from a World Series. Hall of Fame talent significantly improves your team and your postseason chances.
The Piazza and Beltran examples are especially illustrative. With Piazza, the Mets already had Todd Hundley. With Beltran, the Mets already had Mike Cameron. Rather than be happy with the status quo for a team not good enough to win, the Mets improved on a strength, and it led to a better future.
That’s Lindor right now. Yes, the Mets may very well be served to go forward with either Gimenez or Rosario. However, with all due respect to both, neither of them are Lindor, nor are they close.
If the Mets want to truly win now, they should be making every reasonable effort to get Lindor in a New York Mets uniform.
Last night, Mike Brosseau hit an eighth inning go-ahead homer off of Aroldis Chapman to help send the Tampa Bay Rays to the ALCS. It was an incredible postseason moment:
French poetry pic.twitter.com/8MxtGf1kMC
— Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) October 10, 2020
There were many reasons why it was phenomenal story. The Rays entire payroll makes less than Gerrit Cole. In September, Chapman was suspended for throwing at Brosseau’s head (only for the appeal not to be addressed until next year). Mostly, it was incredible because Brosseau was an undrafted free agent.
Brosseau played for Oakland University in college. Oakland University is a mid-major team playing in the unheralded Horizon Conference. Their home field has at times been in an unplayable condition.
Players like Brosseau aren’t supposed to make it to the Major Leagues, but that’s the beauty of short season baseball.
Short season baseball gives Major League teams the opportunity to identify previously overlooked talent. It gives them a chance to give a player a chance in a much better baseball environment to see if they can blossom. Every team has a story of why this is great.
Take the Mets for example. Mike Piazza wears a Mets cap on his Hall of Fame plaque. That never would’ve been possible had the Los Angeles Dodgers drafted the 1B/DH with their 62nd round pick to look to move him to catcher.
In 2016, an injury riddled Mets team probably misses the postseason if T.J. Rivera didn’t get his opportunity to play at second everyday late in the season. Like Brosseau, Rivera was an undrafted free agent.
Now, none of these three players likely get a chance because there’s no longer a place to give them an opportunity. Rob Manfred has eliminated these short season leagues for no other reason than to save money.
The Appalachian League is now the equivalent of a Midwest Cape Cod League. That may be good for scouting, but it does little to nothing to develop players like Brosseau.
No, Brosseau is a player who won’t get a chance starting next year. With that, future postseason series will be effectively be forever altered because Brosseau wouldn’t have even had a chance to develop into a player to take that at-bat against Chapman.
In the end, last night just wasn’t a great moment for the Rays, it was a complete indictment of how terrible a commissioner Rob Manfred is.
You’re seeing in many circles the New York Yankees getting killed for using Deivi Garcia to open for J.A. Happ. The reason why they’re being killed is simple – Happ was terrible.
Happ has not done nearly as well against right-handed batters as he has left-handed batters. This year, right-handed batters had a .296 wOBA against a .252 for left-handed batters. That’s not a one year short season blip either.
Last year, it was more pronounced with right-handed batters having a .345 wOBA with left-handed batters having a .280. These splits hold true throughout his career. Simply put, Happ is better against left-handed batters than right.
Before proceeding further, that’s baseball. Typically, pitchers perform better against same side batters. In baseball, you want your left-handed pitchers facing left-handed batters. With starters you can’t just do that; hence, the opener strategy.
Criticizing that doesn’t make much sense. The Yankees put Happ in a good position to succeed, and they were smart having him start an inning as opposed to coming in after just three batters.
The reactionary decision was this was wrong because it was different. That opinion was validated because Happ was terrible allowing four runs over 2.2 innings.
In all honesty, if Happ was going to struggle against that lineup that night, he was going to struggle whether it was the first, second, third, etc. As a pitcher, you either have it, or you don’t.
Moving past that, postseason games are all hands on deck. Players are going to be asked to do things out of the norm. We saw the Dodgers prepare for that by having Mookie Betts play a game at second base this year. As a practical matter, Happ should be mentally prepared to pitch in any inning and any game situation in the postseason.
That said, it was still a dumb decision to use the opener for three reasons.
First and foremost, looking at the Rays, the opener only impacts whether or not they play Yandy Diaz right now. With all due respect to Diaz, no one should predicate important pitching decisions based upon Diaz. He’s not a good enough hitter to try to strategically alter what you’ve done with a pitcher for years now.
Second, it disrupted Masahiro Tanaka. That extra day of rest took him out of his routine. Now, that sometimes happens in the postseason, but this was a conscious decision and not one of consequence of sweeping a series.
The obvious counter argument to that is Tanaka has been better on six days or more of rest in his career. Assuredly, this was a part of the Yankees decision making. If so, this does highlight some of the sound decision making.
However, this all loses the bigger picture. The Rays maul left-handed pitching. This year, they had a 121 wRC+ against left-handed pitching which was fourth best in the majors.
They are not nearly as good against right-handed pitching. In fact, they had just a 105 wRC+, which was good for just 13th in the majors.
By making this decision, the Yankees took Garcia, a right-handed starter, out of the equation to start Game 4. Instead, they’re using Jordan Montgomery, a left-handed starter who is arguably their worst healthy starter.
The Rays mauled him knocking him out after 0.2 innings. Under no circumstance do you want to put Montgomery up against this Rays lineup with the season on the line. That’s the position the Yankees should’ve foreseen by using Garcia and Happ the way they did.
That said, if Happ pitches well the Yankees probably win Game 2, and they had Tanaka for the knockout punch. If not, you’re willing to ride with Montgomery knowing you have Gerrit Cole for a potential winner-take-all Game 5.
You can understand that rationale. However, when your decision making is predicated on counting on Happ pitching well against a Rays team which mauls left-handed pitching, your thought process is inherently flawed.
When you’re knowingly potentially using Montgomery to save your season, your decision completely failed, and frankly, you did something stupid.
Ultimately, that’s why the Garcia/Happ decision didn’t make sense. It wasn’t an issue of game strategy. No, that was sound. It was really an issue of mapping out the series. Failing to take that into account is what may very well cost the Yankees this series.
Seeing Travis d’Arnaud play great since leaving the Mets has generally seen Mets fans have one of two reactions:
- Typical Mets
- Can’t criticize the Mets for this one
The second reaction is driven by the premise d’Arnaud wasn’t good with the Mets. Essentially, the Mets gave him every possible chance, and he still didn’t succeed. Ipso facto, he was never going to be good with the Mets.
This is the standard defense when a player the Mets gave up on too soon thrived elsewhere. The most famous recent example was Justin Turner. Of course, that was predicated on a false premise.
Turner worked on his launch angle with Marlon Byrd, and he was getting results late in the season. Rather than pay Turner an absurdly low arbitration salary to permit him to be a useful utility player who could grow to be more, the Mets instead chose to non-tender and slander him.
Mets fans having amnesia from all the other times the Wilpon led Mets front office do this only for the decision to blow up in their face, somehow take the organization’s side. It happens time and time again, and we’re seeing it with d’Arnaud.
The biggest fallacy with d’Arnaud was he wasn’t good with the Mets. Sadly, this emanates from a poor understanding of the catching position wherein people equate the ability to catch with the ability to throw.
Now, there are some truths with d’Arnaud. First and foremost, he was injury prone. Second, his throwing arm wasn’t great. Third, his bat wasn’t as advertised when he was obtained as a prospect.
Still, that should not be conflated to mean he wasn’t good with the Mets. In fact, d’Arnaud was a good Met.
From 2014 (his first full season) until 2017 (his last full season), d’Arnaud amassed an 8.5 fWAR*. Over that stretch, d’Arnaud was the 11th best catcher in the game. His 99 wRC+ made him the 14th best catcher in the game.
Certainly, his bat wasn’t as good as hoped, but it was league average. It was also above average for his position. We also knew there was a chance for more.
In 2015, we got a glimpse of what d’Arnaud would be in his post Mets career. In that season, he hit .268/.340/.485 with 12 homers and 41 RBI. That was good for a 130 wRC+. That made him one of the best catchers in the game, and with his hitting three homers that postseason, he seemed poised for stardom.
Really, d’Arnaud looked like the complete catcher. He could hit. He blocked balls and framed at an elite level. There was no one in baseball better at fielding throws and getting down tags. He just led a young pitching staff to the World Series.
Admittedly, it didn’t happen. Injuries were a big reason why.
In 2016, he dealt with a rotator cuff strain. In 2017, he dealt with wrist injuries. Finally, in 2018, it was discovered he had a torn UCL costing him that season.
These are all injuries which impact your hitting, and they’re reasons why d’Arnaud wasn’t able to build off of his 2015 campaign. Still, he remained a strong defensive catcher and pitch framer.
Put another way, d’Arnaud was actually a good catcher who helped his team win. As noted, he was the 11th best in the game.
After his UCL injury, there was legitimate hole he’d return to his 2015 form. Instead, the Mets under Jeff Wilpon’s direction did what they always do. They unnecessarily rushed a player back from injury.
At a time when d’Arnaud should’ve been on a rehab assignment, or even rehabbing to get ready to play in rehab games, d’Arnaud was catching a Major League game, and he had just about the worst game a catcher has ever had. Instead of realizing it was the Mets who screwed up by forcing a player to return before he was ready, they got rid of him.
This led to d’Arnaud getting the time he needed to get back into playing shape. Now, away from the arm and elbow injuries and away from the Mets medical decision makers, we see d’Arnaud return to his 2015 form.
Again, what d’Arnaud is doing now is something we’ve seen him do in a Mets uniform.
Just because you were frustrated with his inability to throw out base stealers should dealing with a starting staff incapable of holding on runners doesn’t change that. Just because we saw the Mets use SNY and their influence with some media personalities or the fact there are just plain ignorant fans doesn’t change that.
So yes, there’s every reason to believe Travis d’Arnaud would have been this good if he stayed with the Mets. First and foremost, he was healthy. Second and just as important, he had already been this good in a Mets uniform.
And regardless of what he would or would not have done if he stayed with the Mets, d’Arnaud was good with the Mets. Being 11th best at his his position proves that.
Editor’s Note: Typically, this site uses bWAR. Catchers are the one exception as fWAR incorporates framing.
Right now, the Mets two starters are Jacob deGrom and David Peterson. With Peterson, the Mets have a promising pitcher who is a sinkerball pitcher. In terms of Peterson, the question is what do you do to help him take the next step forward in his career.
The first part of the plan should be to improve the infield defense. With the Meta apparently moving from Amed Rosario to Andres Gimenez at short, they already took a big step forward on that front.
Rosario continued to make strong steps forward defensively, and he was a good defender, but he was not on Gimenez’s level. Rosario was a -3 DRS and 2 OAA to Gimenez’s 1 DRS and 5 OAA. At a 5 OAA, Gimenez was actually tied for the second best defensive SS in the game.
At second, Robinson Cano rebounded defensively with a 3 OAA. On that note, Cano was better moving to his left. That’s an important consideration for an aging player who probably needs to move off of second.
It’s not about ability per se, but rather durability. He’s going to be 38 next year, and he’s broken down a bit in each of the last few years while playing second. A switch to a less demanding position like third should help him extend his career.
It also solves a real issue for the Mets as third base is a huge problem. Jeff McNeil was supposed to play third, but he had throwing issues not too dissimilar from what we once saw with Wilmer Flores. That led the Mets to move McNeil off the position and replace him with J.D. Davis.
Davis was a disaster at third. He had a -8 DRS, which is he had enough innings to qualify, would’ve had him as the worst in the position in the majors. His -3 OAA was also the worst in the majors at the position.
By moving Cano to third, you finally take away Davis’ glove (which needs to happen anyway), and second is re-opened for McNeil. At second, McNeil has been a good defender with a career 4 OAA and 1 DRS.
By going with an infield of McNeil, Cano, and Gimenez, they have made it a significantly improved defensive infield. In fact, you can argue it’s a very good one at that.
As an aside, Nolan Arenado is purportedly on the trade bloc, and the Mets have a logjam at first with Pete Alonso and Dominic Smith. Putting Arenado alongside Gimenez would possibly even surpass Robin Ventura and Rey Ordonez.
While Arenado may be considered a pipe dream, that’s the direction the Mets should be angling. That’s not just because of Steve Cohen’s deep pockets. Rather, it’s because the Mets should be maximizing their defense.
Part of that will include moving on from Wilson Ramos. Ramos is a catcher of a different era. That’s not his fault, but rather one of Brodie Van Wagenen’s front office. Moving on from Ramos to another catcher better at framing, whether that be J.T. Realmuto, James McCann, or someone else entirely, the Mets will be much better poised defensively.
They will also be better poised to handle a pitch to contact sinkerball staff. That will help Peterson succeed in his second season.
This will also help Stroman, who for reasons previously detailed, should be the Mets priority right now. The question is who should then round out the Mets rotation with Noah Syndergaard rehabbing from Tommy John.
There is an argument to be made for Rick Porcello to return on another one year deal. Certainly, Porcello will be driven to have a better 2021 after his 2020 was terrible. It’s quite possible he wants that chance to return to the Mets, a team he grew up loving, and prove to them he’s a pitcher who can help them win.
Now, Porcello’s stats were a very mixed bag last year. His ERA+ was a career worst 75. He let up an inordinate amount of barrels last year too.
Behind that was a 3.33 FIP, which is quite good. Porcello was also above average in terms of hard hit percentage, and he posted very good exit velocity rates.
You could argue with a vastly superior infield defense Porcello could very well be a good stopgap for Syndergaard and/or insurance for a Peterson sophomore slump. In the end, if the Mets are moving in the direction of a pitch to contact staff, they should really lean into it and make their team the best suited they can to head into that direction.
As we’ve seen in years like 1999 and 2006 building a superior infield defense can help your team overcome pitching deficiencies. It can help ground ball pitchers be reliable, post strong numbers, and pitch deep into games.
For the Mets, there are many directions they can head towards with a new owner and front office. Given the presence of Peterson and what’s available on the free agent market, this is a direction the Mets should seriously consider pursuing.
Steve Cohen has agreed to purchase the New York Mets and his approval as the new owner is all but a formality. In that vein, Cohen has already set off to work hiring Sandy Alderson, looking to beef up the analytics department, and announcing al employees will receive full pay starting November 1.
This is a great start, but Cohen needs to pay attention to his roster. To that end, Marcus Stroman is a pending free agent, and the Mets have a window for exclusive negotiating rights with him.
Locking up Stroman is of vital importance for a few reasons. Chief among those is the sorry state of this starting rotation.
Even with David Peterson having a solid rookie season, the only starter the Mets can realistically rely upon in 2021 is Jacob deGrom. Ultimately, the Mets have a lot of difficult decisions to make rounding out the rest of the rotation.
At some point, they may get Noah Syndergaard back next year. In looking at that, it’s important to remember Syndergaard is a pending free agent, and the Mets don’t have the best history of getting pitchers back from Tommy John.
That leaves the Mets searching for a number two for next year and the ensuing seasons. Given how Brodie Van Wagenen needlessly ravaged the Mets farm system, that starter isn’t coming through the farm system. That leaves free agency.
Looking at free agency, there are only two starters who fill this need. The first is Stroman, and the other is Trevor Bauer. Now, Bauer is coming off a Cy Young caliber (shortened) season, but you can still make the case Stroman is the better option.
In Bauer’s career, he’s only had two very good seasons. That’s this shortened season and 2018. Sandwiched between them was a very uneven 2019 where he was more good than bad.
Over this three year stretch, Bauer is 28-23 with a 3.18 ERA, 144 ERA+, and a 3.38 FIP. Overall, he has had a 9.6 WAR over this stretch.
Now, Stroman didn’t pitch this year due to family concerns. This makes his most recent three year stretch 2017 – 2019. Over that stretch, Stroman was 27-31 with a 3.65 ERA, 120 ERA+, and a 3.83 FIP. Overall, he had a 10.0 WAR over that stretch.
Looking at the baseline numbers, you might be inclined to surmise Bauer was clearly the better of the two. While an understandable presumption, lost in that was their respective levels of competition.
Stroman pitched in the AL East for the vast majority of his three year stretch whereas Bauer pitched in both Central divisions.
Looking at the 2017 – 2020 time period, Stroman has faced far superior competition.
Over this time span, the Yankees (2), Rays (6), and Red Sox (7) were all in the top 10 in wRC+. He did have an easier time with the Orioles who were 22nd in that time frame.
The problem with that from Bauer’s perspective is when you compare the two, he regularly faced three offenses WORSE than the Orioles. Those offenses were the Pirates (23), Royals (25), and Tigers (28).
Yes, the Twins (5) have had a good offense during this stretch. After them, the next best offense Bauer faced was the Cubs at 10th. The problem there is Bauer got to routinely face them when the Cubs were terrible offensively. In fact, much of his 2020 campaign was spent beating up horrendous offensive teams.
Bauer’s 2020 opponents and their offensive rankings
Tigers (2) – 91 wRC+ (24th)
Brewers (3) – 92 wRC+ (21st)
Royals – 89 wRC+ (25th)
Cubs (2) – 91 wRC+ (23rd)
Pirates (2) – 68 wRC+ (29th)
White Sox – 118 wRC+ (5th)— Mets Daddy (@MetsDaddy2013) September 24, 2020
Look, there’s value in the ability to beat bad teams. From what we’ve seen from Bauer, he can also beat good offensive ballclubs. After all he pitched well against the Atlanta Braves in the Wild Card Series.
Still, if you’re going to sign a pitcher to a big contract, you want it to be the guy who’s proven to pitch at an All Star level while consistently facing superior offensive teams. That’s clearly Stroman.
There’s another factor too. We have already seen Stroman be able to handle New York and the big stage. He did it as a visitor with the Toronto Blue Jays. He’s done it in the postseason and WBC. He’s also handled it well as a member of the Mets.
Once Stroman inks a deal, you know the pressures of being a Met are not going to get to him. We don’t know that with Bauer. He may thrive here. He may wilt. With his social media presence, he may very well do both.
Taking that and everything into account, Stroman should be the Mets priority, and the team should use their exclusive window to sign him to an extension. It’ll give them a number two starter for years to come. It will also give them a quality pitcher they know can handle this stage.