During his press conference yesterday, Mets manager Luis Rojas indicated Amed Rosario will work at third base, but he will not be working in the outfield. This plan is not something which helps Rosario or the Mets.
One of the reasons is Rosario’s bat. It doesn’t play at the position.
Mostly buttressed by a 100 wRC+ in 2019, Rosario has a career 89 wRC+. From 2016 – 2019, MLB third baseman had between a 102 – 105 wRC+. That puts a typical Rosario season well below the threshold.
To even justify Rosario at third, he’s have to play elite defense. His ability to do that is certainly up for debate.
Rosario’s defense has been gradually improving, but it appears like he’ll never reach the Gold Glove aspirations many had for him, nor will be surpass Andres Gimenez.
By OAA, he made huge strides in this shortened season going from a -8 OAA to a 2. DRS paints the same picture with his going from a -10 to a -3.
This past season, what stood out was he’s better able to go to his right. However, in a normal season, he was far better going to his left. Certainly, if he has the range for short, he should for third.
Looking at these numbers, Rosario can certainly play third. However, that’s not the issue. As noted, he needs to play at an elite level due to his bat.
Now, you could argue he’s a better option than J.D. Davis, which he certainly is. Davis is incapable of playing the position, and without the juiced ball, his offense came hurtling back to earth.
However, this shouldn’t be the test. Just being better than Davis isn’t sufficient. Again, the Mets need a real third baseman. Rosario has not shown yet he can be that with his offense being the biggest issue.
His offense won’t be as much of an issue in center. In three of the past four seasons, center fielders we’re below league average offensively. As noted, Rosario does have the tools to succeed in center.
If nothing else, Rosario should be working towards being a good center fielder. If he’s lost the shortstop job, he needs to become as versatile as possible. Learning center does that.
Overall, Rosario’s chances of success at third are not as good as his chances of success in center. Regardless, he needs to work on both as he’s now a bench player. That’s why focusing just on third is a very bad plan.
With the Cleveland Indians announcing they’re getting rid of the Indians team name and with it the final vestiges of the insanely racist Chief Wahoo, there is now a debate as to what the new name should be. There have been many fine suggestions.
One of the early front runners was the Cleveland Spiders. It makes sense because that’s a former team name and because there has already been some terrific mock-ups of what the new logo could be.
I really hope they go back to being the Cleveland Spiders, so much amazing logo potential pic.twitter.com/0EXGjMePNx
— Sam Hudson (@heroinstitute) December 14, 2020
There have been other suggestions tying the new team name to baseball history or the rock-and-roll roots of the area. Of all the ideas proposed, Mike Piazza perhaps had the best idea:
My two cents on the @Indians name change, a Negro league name? Monarchs, Buckeyes, just thinking, thoughts?#Indians #Cleveland
— Mike Piazza (@mikepiazza31) December 15, 2020
That’s a great way to turn the page forward on the teams racist past and move forward to a new, better future. It’s also a great way to honor Larry Doby who broke the AL color barrier in the same year Jackie Robinson did.
Going through Negro League history, there were a number of different teams who played in Cleveland. The team names were the Bears, Browns, Buckeyes, Cubs, Elites, Giants, Hornets, Red Sox, Tigers, Tate Stars, and Stars.
Off the bat, you know the team couldn’t be the Cubs, Giants, Red Sox, or Tigers. There are also probably issues with the Browns and Buckeyes. There are already pro sports teams named the Bears, Hornets, and Stars.
Basically, that leaves the Elites and the Tate Stars, neither of which would really work. While Tate Stars may not work, some version of the Stars might.
That’s where you could marry the idea of honoring the Negro Leagues and celebrating the city, specifically their part in the history of Rock & Roll. It’s something the team already embraces.
We saw that with the 2019 All Star Game. Cleveland was the host city, and they incorporated that history in the logo and practice jerseys.
Our city. Our game. Our logo.
Cleveland is ready to ROCK the 2019 All-Star Game. ? https://t.co/H6zy5o9s75
— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) August 7, 2018
Swagger.#AllStarGame pic.twitter.com/vMGRHMpvu2
— All-Star Game (@AllStarGame) July 9, 2019
It’s not just for special events. The McCoys hit “Hang On Sloopy” is played in the middle of the eighth. There’s also the Rock and Roll fireworks during the summers.
This is one of many directions the organization could go. Perhaps, this is the best one.
The name Cleveland Rock Stars embraces the city’s history, and it honors the Negro Leagues. To wit, it also honors Doby, who is arguably the most important figure in team history.
There are other interesting options. Whatever the organization picks, we can only hope it honors the past and the city in the way the Cleveland Rock Stars would.
In his introductory press conference, new New York Mets GM Jared Porter spoke about building depth across the 40 man roster. One area which desperately needs attention is the outfield.
Really, the Mets only have three outfielders on the roster with Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, and Jeff McNeil. With respect to McNeil, he’s likely going to be the Opening Day second baseman.
Assuming the Mets sign a center fielder like George Springer, the team will still need a viable fourth outfielder who can step up and start on an extended basis if needed.
And no, Dominic Smith (-2 OAA) and J.D. Davis (-2 OAA) are not outfielders. Smith is a good defensive first baseman, and Davis is a DH. Instead of a first baseman in left, the Mets need an actual outfielder.
Looking at the free agents, there is one name which stands out – Yasiel Puig.
Puig is looking to return to baseball after missing the 2020 season. He had missed out for a variety of mostly inexplicable reasons.
First, he wasn’t signed during the original Spring Training. Then, he would sign a deal with the Atlanta Braves in July. However, that deal fell through when Puig tested positive for COVID19.
Likely, that leaves Puig looking for a one year deal to rebuild value. In the event there are no starting jobs available, the Mets would be a good fit.
When Puig last played, he still had very good speed. He also had improved defensive numbers in right after an unexpected one year drop off in 2018.
In 2019, he struggled offensively by his standards. His 101 wRC+ was tied for a career worst. That was surprising partially because he posted a career best exit velocity. Whatever the case, at worst, Puig can be anticipated provide league average offense. He has a much higher ceiling than that too.
Puig also has some defensive versatility. While he’s spent most of his career in right, he has played center and left. On that point, Puig has been playing center in the Winter Leagues.
Yasiel Puig, playing for the first time since last September, made this athletic play to rob #Angels Luis Rengifo of a hit in LIDOM tonight.
Puig’s initial read wasn’t great but the correction worked out
pic.twitter.com/3sfeeSCgC3— Maria Torres (@maria_torres3) December 11, 2020
That work helps him be more versatile. Having a bench player who can play all three outfield positions would be of an enormous benefit to the Mets.
Puig does seem well suited to play in New York as he thrives in the spotlight. He possesses all the tools to be successful with good speed as well as a history of playing good defense and posting strong offensive numbers.
All told, this would make him a great bench option and insurance policy against a Nimmo or Conforto injury. If MLB refuses to acknowledge reason and instead implemented the universal DH, Puig can help be part of that rotation.
There’s a lot of ways Puig can help the Mets, and he’s the best option available for this role. The only issue is whether he’s willing to accept this role. Given his year away from baseball, he might. If so, the Mets should push to sign him.
When it comes to Brandon Nimmo, there’s a lot to like. He hustles all the time, he’s fast, and he’s an on base machine. He’s also a pretty good defensive outfielder.
Well, that’s the case if you keep him out of center.
By all accounts, Nimmo should be good there. He’s got the speed to thrive. He busts it all the time. Seeing him at the plate, you know he has a good eye.
And yet, he’s never posted a positive DRS or UZR in center. He did enter 2020 with a 3 OAA, but with his -4 OAA in center this year, he’s a -1 OAA now for his career.
Now, you could make the argument Nimmo was a positive OAA in previous years, and as such, he could be counted upon to be that again. After all, 2020 was a bizarre year which led to many strange outlier results.
That said, 2020 was also the first time Nimmo was an everyday CF at the Major League level. As a result, all the stats we see on him are the results of a small sample size.
The only thing we can see is his OAA is starting to reflect what we’ve seen with his DRS and UZR. The reason for that is quite likely is his Jump numbers have always been poor.
In 2020, Nimmo was a -1.7 feet vs. average. The previous year he was -0.2. In 2018, he was a 0.1. Fact is, he’s not getting that initial break on the ball, and his ability to do so seems to be regressing.
Now, you could well argue he plays passable enough defense in center, and there is some indications he could halt the regression and improve. Unfortunately, that’s a poor approach to handling the position.
As previously noted, there’s a correlation between strong outfield defense and winning. That’s especially the case with CF defense. Take a look at the last few World Series winners:
- 2020 – Cody Bellinger (5 DRS/7 OAA)
- 2019 – Victor Robles (23 DRS/22 OAA)
- 2018 – Jackie Bradley Jr. (-1 DRS/9 OAA)
- 2017 – George Springer (6 DRS/1 OAA)
With respect to Bradley, that’s where we see a DRS/OAA split. While he rated poorly in DRS that season, he had a very strong 9 OAA. The DRS/OAA differences aside, we see strong center field defense is a necessity if you want to win.
Sure, Nimmo can be passable at times. You could argue he may not hurt you. However, he doesn’t help the Mets at a crucial defensive position, one of increased importance in the launch angle era.
Looking back at the above list, both Bradley and Springer are available this offseason. While Bradley may not be a good investment, Springer is everything the Mets need and want in center.
Springer is a good defensive center fielder. He’s a right handed bat in a heavy left handed hitting lineup. He’s a player who pushes Nimmo to LF where he belongs.
Nimmo is a good left fielder. Springer is a good center fielder. Finally, Michael Conforto is good in right. That’s an outfield alignment which helps secures outs and rakes. Arguably, it would be the best in the game.
No matter how many ways you look at it, the Mets are best served getting Nimmo out of center and getting a real center fielder, preferably Springer. If they do that, this Mets team takes a massive step forward towards winning a World Series.
In an ideal world, the New York Mets would be looking to sign Mookie Betts this offseason. It would’ve been an absolutely perfect signing for the team.
The second best player in the sport helping the Steve Cohen era get off on the right foot. The right-handed bat to compliment a heavy left-handed hitting lineup. A player gifted enough to play center for the next decade.
However, it’s not happening because the Los Angeles Dodgers went all out to not only obtain him from the Boston Red Sox, but they also gave him the extension he wanted. As such, he’ll spend 13 years with the Dodgers and none with the Mets.
This is not the first time we’ve seen a future Hall of Famer eschew free agency by signing an extension with his new team. In fact, the Mets once benefitted from this by trading for and signing Mike Piazza.
That’s one of the benefits a team receives by obtaining that player. They get the exclusive window to negotiate with and sign the player. They also have that opportunity if they make the player signing an extension a condition precedent to making a trade.
That’s something to be mindful of with Francisco Lindor and Nolan Arenado on the trade bloc. These are quite possibly two future Hall of Famers the Mets can go out and obtain right now.
There is a need for both players. With Arenado, he’s arguably the best third baseman in baseball, and the Mets are in desperate need of one.
Lindor may not be as obvious when the Mets have Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario. With Lindor, it boils down to this team is not good enough as it, and they need premium talent to push them over the top. The best shortstop in the game goes a long way in accomplishing that.
If the Mets can get either player (preferably both), they need to do it. You don’t run the risk of another organization stepping up ad obtaining that player because if that happens they can be the ones who give Lindor or Arenado an extension ensuring they don’t hit the free agent market.
No, that doesn’t mean you make the trade for its own sake, and by no means should the Mets overpay. That said, when you have Gimenez and Rosario as well as Dominic Smith and Pete Alonso, you have valuable cost controlled depth which can be a big piece in getting a Lindor or Arenado.
Really, the Mets don’t need two shortstops and two first basemen. They need a Lindor and/or an Arenado. They need to get them now to prevent another team from locking them up.
Instead, the Mets need to do what the Dodgers did with Betts. Get the superstar. Use their financial muscle to get that superstar to sign an extension. Then, they can go win the World Series.
One of the WFAN shows inquired whether Mets fans were starting to “feel anxious.” With all due respect, there’s no reason for any Mets fan to feel this way.
The team has an offer out to James McCann. So far, he has not signed with the Mets, but then again, he hasn’t agreed to terms with anyone. In the event McCann does the unexpected and signs with another team, J.T. Realmuto is still a free agent.
In addition to McCann and Realmuto, the following players remain on the free agent market:
There are many, many more players past that as none of the big ticket free agents have signed. On that note, the Mets have already had a great start to free agency by already bringing Marcus Stroman and Trevor May aboard.
In addition to the free agent market, we haven’t seen the main targets get traded. Those players include but aren’t limited to the following:
There are many more players available beyond that group. Much like the free agents, we have yet to see that blockbuster trade happen. So long as all of these players are available and there remains a multitude of options, there is absolutely no reason to feel anxious.
Remember, these are not the same old Mets. The Wilpons are gone and have been replaced by Steve Cohen. The Mets have money and will not have Jeff Wilpon interfering with Sandy Alderson running a competent organization.
Mets fans just need to relax and wait and see what the team will do this offseason. Based upon how it’s started and the resources available, the only anxiousness Mets fans will likely feel is for the season to come as soon as possible.
The New York Mets have a number of needs this offseason, and they’re oft discussed. However, the biggest one that’s overlooked is the giant hole at third base.
Simply put, the Mets cannot afford to put J.D. Davis there again. He’s been terrible at the position in his career, and there’s really no reason to expect any different in 2021.
In his career, Davis has a -19 DRS and -5 OAA in 770.0 MLB innings. With his posting a -8 DRS and -3 OAA at the position in 2020, it would appear his skills are regressing instead of progressing. When you break it down, he’s no more than a 1B/DH thereby leaving the Mets searching for a third baseman.
That’s a spot which likely would’ve gone to Jeff McNeil, who had his own issues at third. However, with Robinson Cano‘s suspension, it would seem McNeil is the everyday second baseman. Accordingly, the Mets will have to look outside the organization to fulfill their third base vacancy.
That is problematic because the options available aren’t great.
As previously addressed, former Met Justin Turner is probably the best option. There are underlying issues with Turner including his age, and whether he’d be willing to return to Queens.
After Turner, one popular name in some circles is DJ LeMahieu. There are a number of reasons to be skeptical of LeMahieu including his stats being Yankee Stadium fueled, his price tag, and his declining defense. There’s also the issue of his not actually being a third baseman even if he can reasonably be expected to transition.
After those two, it’s a pretty severe drop-off. Former Mets Asdrubal Cabrera and Neil Walker are probably the next best options, but at this point in their careers, they’re best served being utility players.
Of course all of this depends upon your impression of Ha-Seong Kim. The Kiwoom Heros of the KBO have posted him. With that, he really looks to be the first KBO shortstop entering his prime to come to the MLB.
MLB Trade Rumors calls Kim a “unicorn given his blend of age, power, speed and defensive aptitude at a premium position.”
While Kim is a shortstop, he’s split time between short and third. It will be interesting to see how well he could play in the majors. That said, he’s awfully tantalizing in a very shallow free agent group.
In fact, given Turner’s age and LeMahieu’s many question marks, Kim may be the best option available. In fact, he could be the only real option available to the Mets.
With that being the case, the Mets are in a very difficult situation. They’re either looking to overpay Turner or LeMahieu to get them to come to a team they don’t necessarily want to join, or they’re rolling the dice on Kim. After that, it’s either an internal option or a trade, which is much easier said than done.
So far, the New York Mets have had to proceed building a roster without a General Manager. Of course, when you have Sandy Alderson in charge, your organization is well equipped to forge forward, but at some point a team wants and needs a GM.
For his part, Mets owner Steve Cohen is surprised the team does not have a GM. The Mets not having a GM has led to some insane theories, but there is likely a much more plausible theories.
For starters, we know many organizations have not permitted the Mets to interview many of the Mets targets. It’s difficult to hire people when you’re blocked from doing so.
We saw another obstacle with former Mets pitcher Chris Young. He interviewed for the Mets GM job and soon thereafter accept the Texas Rangers GM job. He had taken his name out of consideration for the Mets job due to family reasons.
It’s very likely many candidates are doing that at the moment. While unspoken, we probably should not discount COVID19 as one of the reasons why.
COVID19 has changed nearly every aspect of our lives. One significant area is our ability to travel. That makes uprooting your life to move to New York all the more difficult of a decision.
Take Young right now. The State of New York has a two week quarantine for people traveling to non-contiguous states. Given the nature of the GM job, you really can’t be out of commission for two weeks.
As a result, if you accept the Mets GM job, you don’t see your family for a lengthy unspecified period of time. Yes, your spouse and children will come, but you leave never knowing when you will ever see your parents or siblings again.
You’re also uprooting your life during a pandemic. The process of finding a new home and schools for your children is far too impacted to make the educated and well researched decisions you’d normally undertake.
No, that doesn’t mean you can’t hire anyone at all. Kim Ng took the job with the Miami Marlins, and Sandy Alderson did return to the Mets organization. Still, with all the people turning down this Mets GM job you can’t help but wonder why.
The Mets GM job may be the best one in all of pro sports. There’s a terrific core, and there are tremendous resources at their disposal to make a perennial World Series contender. Something isn’t adding up.
Right now, no one really knows the real reason people are being reluctant to accept the Mets GM job. When that happens, you really have to wonder what is happening.
Yes, it is pure conjecture, but at this point, we do have to wonder if COVID19 is impacting not only the Mets ability to interview the candidates they want, but also their ability to get those candidates to uproot their lives during a pandemic.
Realistically speaking, due to notes depth issues, the New York Mets will need to sign at least two more starting pitchers, perhaps three. There are plenty of options available, but perhaps, the Mets best plan is to look to Japan.
In terms of MLB pitching free agents, one of the most prominent names available is Masahiro Tanaka. For many reasons, a Tanaka and the Mets make a lot of sense.
For Tanaka, joining the Mets would mean not completely uprooting his life because he can stay in New York. Additionally, with the Mets having Seth Lugo, he’s be joining an organization who knows how to manage a pitcher with a torn UCL.
For the Mets, Tanaka makes sense as well. Tanaka is a pitcher who has shown he can handle New York. Also, for a team with World Series aspirations, Tanaka has real postseason mettle.
In terms of ability, Tanaka is a strong three or four starter right now. Since tearing his UCL, he’s been a 111 ERA+ and a 4.04 FIP pitcher with a 1.8 BB/9 and an 8.3 K/9. Over the last three years, he’s averaged 5.2 innings per start.
You don’t want to go too long on a contract with him. He does have that torn UCL, and he is 32. According to Baseball Savant, his velocity and spin was well below league average.
That said, he again had exceptional control and generated a number of swings and misses. All told, this is someone who knows how to pitch, is an acceptable third starter, and as a fourth starter is about as good an option as there is.
Depending on how you structure your offseason, Tanaka could serve another role too.
The Yomiuri Giants have posted ace Tomoyuki Sugano. As noted by MLB Trade Rumors, the 31 year old is “a six-time All-Star in Japan and a two-time winner of NPB’s Sawamura Award — their league’s equivalent of MLB’s Cy Young Award.”
Sugano impressed in the last World Baseball Classic, and it’s expected he could be a fourth starter. That could work well for the Mets.
If not Sugano, the Mets could pursue the 28 year old Kohei Arihara. Arihara arguably has better better league stuff than Sugano with a mid 90s fastball. As noted by Sports Info Solutions, Arihara not only has a strikeout pitch with his splitter, but he also “uses a low-80s slider against right-handed batters and mixes in a cutter, changeup and curveball against lefties.”
Overall, Arihara’s repertoire sounds similar to Tanaka’s. This would give Arihara someone to talk to in order to see the adjustments he needs to make from Japan and how to better utilize his arsenal against MLB hitters.
Of course, Tanaka could serve that role as well for Sugano. Depending on what the Cubs would want for Yu Darvish, the Mets could look to pair one of Tanaka, Sugano, or Arihara with him.
The point is there are successful Japanese born pitchers who are thriving in MLB. They have insight on how to help one of the posted Japanese pitchers adapt and thrive here as well.
By adding two starters, the Mets will significantly improve their rotation. There’s another added benefit as well.
Having two Japanese starters would give the Mets in-roads in marketing in Japan. During the time of COVID19 and with the Wilpons leaving the books the way they did, the Mets should be looking for every possible revenue source.
In the end, adding two Japanese starters would make a lot sense for the Mets. It improves the team, and it could also increase revenues permitting them to be able to find more money to spend at the trade deadline or in the ensuing offseason.
When you look at David Peterson‘s Rollie season, there is plenty of reason to be excited for 2021. The 24 year old rookie posted a 123 ERA+ in nine starts and one relief appearance, and he finished the season very strong.
Over his final three starts, he was 2-1 with a 2.00 ERA while striking out 16 batters. Over that stretch, you understand why Marcus Stroman said Peterson “is going to be one of the best in the league for years to come.”
Despite all that, Peterson should begin the season playing for Triple-A Syracuse instead of looking to build off his impressive rookie campaign.
First and foremost is Peterson could benefit from additional time to develop. Remember, prior to pitching in this haywire 2020 season, he had never pitched above Double-A.
As a result, while we saw he had talent, we also saw he was still raw. When looking at his Baseball Savant page, you see some real issues with his performance.
Peterson had a very poor walk rate and low spin on most of his pitches. He also had low fastball velocity and didn’t generate many swings and misses.
Again, we saw glimpses of what Peterson could be like when he struck out 10 Braves over six innings. Of course, he also had 2+ walks in all but two appearances.
His 10.2 HR/FB% was below average. There should also be expectation for a significant regression from his .233 BABIP against. All told, he may be much closer to his 4.52 FIP than his 123 ERA+.
That 4.52 FIP is quite poor and is really indicative of a pitcher who should really be moving to the bullpen. However, that doesn’t really apply to Peterson who is still a developing pitcher with a lot of promise.
It’s better to let Peterson learn from 2020 and continue working to improve as a pitcher in the minors in 2021.
Aside from the need to permit Peterson to continue his development, there’s another and perhaps more important reason for him to start the season in the minors.
As an organization, the Mets are severely lacking in pitching depth at the upper levels of their organization. As a result, they’re going to have to manufacture starting pitching depth.
Arguably, we saw the first move in that direction when the Mets tendered Robert Gsellman a contract. Starting Peterson in the minors would be a second very strong move in that direction.
Right now, Gsellman and Franklyn Kilome is the extent of their MLB ready pitching depth. Given their performances last year, that’s not quality depth. They need to do better, but that’s extraordinarily difficult to do in free agency.
They can do that by filling their rotation with established MLB starters. There are plenty of viable free agents like Jake Odorizzi, James Paxton, Jose Quintana, and Masahiro Tanaka.
With Steven Matz, the Mets only need to sign two more mid-tier starters. The Mets can afford to do that now with Steve Cohen in charge.
If you have no faith in Matz, it’s understandable. However, if he falters, you can go to Peterson. If Peterson opens the season in the rotation and falters, the Mets are picking between Gsellman or Kilome which is a much steeper drop-off.
Fact is, whether it’s the ineffectiveness of one starter or an injury, the Mets are going to have to dip into the minors for a number of starts. If they’re reaching back for Peterson, they’re giving their team a good opportunity to win. If it’s another option, they’re just rolling the dice.
Ultimately, if you want to build depth to help fix what Brodie Van Wagenen destroyed, the Mets need to put themselves in a position to have Peterson start the year in the minors. It’ll help them over the course of the 162 game season, and it will also help Peterson be an even better pitcher when he is needed to start again.