Musings
With the state Brodie Van Wagenen left the Mets, this was an organization in desperate need for pitching. On that front, the Mets under Sandy Alderson’s competent leadership, the team is off to a great start.
Of course, the Mets were helped by Marcus Stroman accepting the qualifying offer. When Stroman did that, he gave the Mets a real solid number two behind Jacob deGrom.
Yes, Stroman is that. From 2014-2019, Stroman is in the top 30 in WAR and top 40 in FIP. There’s other ways to quantify, but this firmly establishes him as a clear cut number two.
Stroman is only part of the solution. Beyond him, the Mets still need to build the rest of their pitching staff. On that note, the Mets just signed Trevor May. Simply put, that was a great move.
May has been one of the best relievers in baseball. Over the last three years, he ranks 12th among all relievers in K% and 13th in K/BB%. His 3.24 WPA ranks 22nd among relievers in this time frame.
Over that time frame, May is 10-4 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.080 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9, and a 12.0 K/9. He also has a 3.56 FIP and 140 ERA+.
This is a process helped along by his working with Jeremy Hefner. The two worked well together in Minnesota, and they promise to do so again in New York.
This is the type of reliever you can plug into the eighth inning in front of Edwin Diaz. With those two innings fully accounted for, Seth Lugo can be better unleashed as the weapon he can be out of the bullpen.
This singular signing moves the Mets bullpen from giant question mark towards solid to reliable. This is exactly how to start building your team.
That’s an important note too. Unlike prior years with the Wilpons, this is the start, not the finish. Typically, May would be the coda to the Mets free agent shopping, not the salvo.
Right now, the Mets have Stroman and May. That significantly improves the 2021 roster. It’s just a start, but it’s a fantastic one at that. Seeing how Alderson has begun, we should be excited for the next move.
One of the hopes Mets fans have with Steve Cohen taking the helm is his new regime correcting a lot of the wrongs committed by the Wilpons. There are countless examples of how poorly the Wilpons treated their former players, and that gives Cohen a real chance to seem magnanimous.
One area where he’s already planning to do this is an Old Timer’s Day. Another area Mets fans want to do this is by bringing Carlos Beltran back to the organization.
With Hensley Meulens not returning as bench coach, many fans see this as the opportunity to bring back Beltran as bench coach. Realistically speaking, Beltran is the worst possible choice for this job.
The modern bench coach job is very complicated. As a result, of all the jobs on the coaching staff, manager included, bench coach is the single job where you absolutely cannot have a novice like Beltran in charge.
As Brad Mills explained to the Sporting News, “You work with everyone from the groundskeepers to the traveling secretary, and you might even make sure the field is ready for early work.” Put another way, the bench coach has to make sure all the planning and preparation for the game is completed.
The bench coach is handling scouting and game prep. He’s running quality control before and during the game. He’s discussing strategy with the manager. He’s fostering relationships with players. He has his hands in everything. As was the case with Derek Shelton and Rocco Baldelli, that included media responsibilities.
With Beltran never having worked on an MLB coaching staff at any level, and with his front office experience having been just one year, he is ill-suited for the job. Very ill suited.
While you can understand Mets fans wanting to repair the relationship with Beltran, this isn’t the time or the job. However, just because the Mets shouldn’t use this opportunity to right a wrong with Beltran, it doesn’t mean they can’t hire a bench coach who can simultaneously right a wrong.
The Mets could very well look to hire Willie Randolph for their vacant bench coach position.
Randolph has the fifth most wins by a Mets manager, and he has the second best winning percentage. In his time as manager, he did a lot of good things including helping David Wright and Jose Reyes reach their full potential.
In addition to his successes as a Mets manager, he was on Joe Torre‘s coaching staff for the last Yankees dynasty. That includes his being a bench coach. Randolph has also been a bench coach in Milwaukee and Baltimore.
All told, Randolph knows the role extraordinarily well. He also knows the challenges Luis Rojas faces as the Mets manager. He knows how to develop players and handle a coaching staff. He knows how to win in New York, and he knows the intense scrutiny a manager faces.
If the 66 year old Randolph is interested in the position, the Mets should interview him for the role. If Rojas has a comfort level with him, Randolph should absolutely be hired for the job.
With that, the Mets will hire an exceptionally qualified person for the job thereby making the Mets a better team. It will also have the benefit of righting the wrong of how he was fired in 2008.
Ultimately, if the Mets want to right some wrongs, they should hire Randolph. If they want the best man for the job, they should hire Randolph. He’s just the perfect fit for this job right now.
Well, due to COVID19, the Denver Broncos were forced to play a game today without a QB. Instead, they took an undrafted WR off their practice squad, and they had him start at QB.
The Broncos predictively lost. It was a 31-3 loss as that undrafted WR, Kendall Hinton, was 1/9 for 13 yards and two picks.
Presumably, the Broncos turned over every stone to try to get the win. At some point, you wonder if they called Tim Tebow. It would make sense for them to have done it with Tebow being a former QB, and the QB staying in shape as Tebow tries to become a Major League Baseball player.
On that front, Tebow seems no closer to reaching that goal. He’s dealt with injuries the last few years, and he only hit .163/.240/.255 in 77 Triple-A games last year.
With his production and lack of progress, the Mets understandably did not protect Tebow from the Rule 5 Draft. There’s no reason to believe the 33 year old will get drafted. There’s perhaps less reason to believe Tebow will ever reach the majors.
There’s reasons why Tebow won’t make it to the majors. There is a question of his dedication with his scheduling events during Spring Training and his SEC broadcast work. Mostly, he was just away from baseball too long while he dedicated his life to being an NFL QB.
Maybe ironically, that chance presented itself. We don’t know if the Broncos or Tebow reached out to make that happen. What we do know is Tebow wasn’t a QB on Sunday, and Tebow is not doing enough to play in the MLB in 2021 on any Sunday.
There are several reasons you could justify not pursuing J.T. Realmuto. Those reasons are Yasmani Grandal, Christian Vazquez, Mitch Garver, Travis d’Arnaud, Roberto Perez, etc.
Put another way, if you’re not at least pursuing Realmuto, you better have a bona fide starting catcher behind the plate. Short of that, the discussion why you’re not pursuing Realmuto faces scrutiny.
Yes, you can reasonably prefer James McCann. That goes double if you’re understandably leery of giving a soon to be 30 year old catcher a big contract. A team could determine they have more pressing holes, and/or they need to allocate their money differently to build a more complete roster.
Still, you have to at least inquire on Realmuto. He’s the best catcher available, and he’s arguably the best player available on the free agent market.
If you don’t have a set starting catcher, you need to talk to Realmuto. That includes the Phillies who gave up an impressive Sixto Sanchez to obtain him.
But no, the Phillies aren’t pursuing him. Instead, they’re going to claim they’re too broke to try to sign him. Other teams are claiming the same. They’ll claim broke and no revenues despite MLB signing a billion dollar TV contract.
That’s in addition to local broadcasting and advertising revenues.
But for some reason, teams want us to believe there’s no money to spend. As a result, they won’t pursue players who can improve their team, and in turn, increase interest and revenues for their team.
That’s fine. Teams like the Phillies who once claimed they’d stupid money to win can cry poor while Steve Cohen judiciously spends to get the players the Mets need to win. Thanks to the Phillies, there’s once less suitor to drive up Realmuto’s price tag.
After nearly 20 years of the Wilpons, Mets fans finally have an owner who gets it. Steve Cohen is one of us, and just like us, he wants the Mets to win.
Instead of building an homage to the Brooklyn Dodgers, he’s bringing back Old Timers Day.
Instead of letting rumors fester and worsen, he and Sandy Alderson called a press conference to address the status of the team.
Instead of shopping for a group of ill fitting and cheap free agents, the Mets are looking at the top of the free agent and trade markets.
Instead of a former agent miscast as a GM, Sandy Alderson, a baseball legend in his own right, is in charge.
Instead of being laughingstocks, the Mets are now feared and respected.
So, this Thanksgiving, Mets fans are mostly thankful for Steve Cohen as he embarks on an era of Mets baseball which we all help will rival (or better yet surpass) the Nelson Doubleday/Frank Cashen led Mets teams.
Happy Thanksgiving!
With reports the Tampa Bay Rays are willing to entertain trades for Blake Snell, this would seemingly be the perfect time for the New York Mets to act. When you look at it, Snell would presumably fill a short and long term fit for the franchise.
Even with Marcus Stroman in the fold, the Mets need to find at least one more starting pitcher. Ideally, they would want two more. Snell would not only fill that need, but he could help make the Mets rotation once again the envy of all of baseball.
Snell also would fill another starting pitching need. After the 2021 season, Steven Matz, Stroman, and Noah Syndergaard will be free agents. That will leave the Mets looking to fill at least 2/5 of their 2022 starting rotation. If you have Snell in the fold that will lessen that burden. The question for the Mets is how much Snell would be worth pursuing.
When many look at Snell, they see the pitcher who won the 2018 Cy Young Award. Our lasting impression of him was his dominant performance in Game 6 of the 2020 World Series before he was inexplicably lifted early. When you look at him from that lens, Snell is an ace level pitcher. When an ace level pitcher available, you need to pursue that pitcher heavily.
However, there are real questions if that is what Snell truly is. Really, when you break it down, Snell’s 2018 Cy Young award winning season has been a complete outlier in his career.
In Snell’s first two seasons, he had a 108 ERA+, 3.87 FIP, 4.5 BB/9, and an 8.9 K/9 while averaging 5.0 innings per start. In the two seasons since winning his Cy Young, Snell had a 111 ERA+, 3.65 FIP, 3.3 BB/9, and a 12.0 K/9 while averaging 4.2 innings per start. Certainly, these past two years have been a significant improvement over what he was over his first two years, but those stats are not remotely indicative of an ace level pitcher.
Of course, this is the Rays, so the analysis is not that simple. Remember, the Rays focus on not allowing their pitchers to go through the rotation a certain amount of times, and they are very strong believers in bullpenning. As a result, it is very arguable their handling of Snell has stunted his ability to again be what he was in 2018.
Taking a deeper look, Snell does have good stuff. Looking at his Baseball Savant page, Snell has elite to near elite fastball velocity and spin, and he has terrific whiff numbers. However, that is only part of the picture. When you dig deeper, you see his spin rates on his change and curve have significantly worsened since his Cy Young season. That said, after struggling with his slider in 2019, he was able to regain his slider spin rate in 2020.
All told, it is really difficult to ascertain what Snell’s trajectory will be. You could argue this is a pitcher who needs to get away from Tampa Bay to permit him to really focus on being able to become the ace level pitcher he can be instead of a five inning starter. You could also argue the Rays know his limitations and that their handling of him allows him to put up such high strikeout numbers, and as a result, with another organization, he may truly suffer.
In some ways, when you see the Rays dangling Snell, you can’t help but be gun shy due to the Chris Archer trade. For many, Archer was a pitcher who could thrive away from Tampa Bay. He was a pitcher with a similarly team friendly contract, and as a result, the Rays were able to extract a kings ransom for him. Now, Archer had his option declined due to TOS issues, and the Pirates are routinely chided for giving up Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and Shane Baz.
That’s not to say or suggest the Rays knowingly traded damaged goods. That is an unfair and unsubstantiated claim. Rather, this just highlights how well the Rays self scout their team, and it shows their ability to extract a significant price in return for their players. Assuredly, if the Rays do in fact trade Snell, they are likely going to try to command an Archer like return, and really, they should do that.
If you are a team like the Mets, and you want Snell, you better be right. You need the utmost confidence in Jeremy Hefner, Jeremy Accardo, and Phil Regan in their ability to not only return Snell to his 2018 form but to keep him there for the ensuing three seasons. If you are not, the Mets as an organization should not be pursuing Snell. Instead, they can look towards a very interesting starting pitching market which still has Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton, Jose Quintana, and others available.
Better yet, they could be using their financial capital to give Stroman and Syndergaard extensions while keeping their player capital in place to swing deals for other areas of need. That said, adding Snell to those two starters and Jacob deGrom is awfully enticing . . . .
Since Brodie Van Wagenen began assembling his team, the overture was this was a team well built for the DH. In 2020, because of a pandemic, the Mets actually did get that DH. After all that hypothesizing about how much it would help the Mets, the end result was a last place finish.
There are many reasons why, and assuredly many would point to the pitching. However, it went much deeper than that. One of the big issues was team defense.
Again, the Mets team defense was atrocious with a -22 DRS. That was good for fifth worst in the majors. Over the past three seasons, the Mets -171 DRS is the worst in the National League and second worst in all of the majors.
This is in large part to an organizational philosophy which pre-dated Van Wagenen. The thought was to acquire as many bats as possible and to find a position for them. The Mets have been all too happy to get players and just stick them somewhere on the diamond.
This has led to J.D. Davis at third and left. Dominic Smith in left field. Brandon Nimmo in center. Michael Conforto playing all three outfield positions. Jeff McNeil playing four different positions. This goes on and on, and in some ways you can trace this tomfoolery all the way back to Lucas Duda playing the outfield.
Perhaps part of this has been the result of Jeff Wilpon running the baseball operations. That said, there has been a prevailing thought process with the Mets to not make the difficult decisions and to hold onto all of their good players. They have found it more prudent to play players out of position resulting in horrible defense, and as a result, the team failing to live up to their sometimes lofty expectations.
Now, taking a look at the Mets current roster, you can say Smith at first base and Pete Alonso at DH is an embarrassment of riches. In Alonso and Smith, the Mets have two cornerstone cost controlled players. As an organization, this is quite an enviable position. When you have those two spots with such high caliber and ceiling players, you don’t want to move on from them. That goes double when you can play them each everyday at first base and DH.
However, that is part of the problem.
While the Mets are set at first and DH, they are a disaster at other important positions. They don’t have a starting catcher, and really, their depth at the position is a question mark. They have no one really capable of playing third base on an everyday basis. They lack anyone in the organization truly capable of playing center everyday. The Mets desperately need at least 2/5 of a starting rotation filled, and they also need to build a bullpen.
Beyond that, the Mets have zero depth at Triple-A, and their Double-A depth is questionable. Put another way, the Mets are a mess, and even with Steve Cohen’s deep pockets, not every one of these areas can be addressed in free agency. It just can’t.
No, the Mets need to be put in a difficult position to have to make hard decisions. Frankly, the trade market sets up extraordinarily well for that right now. At the moment, we know Nolan Arenado, Francisco Lindor, and Blake Snell on the trade bloc. There are very likely other high profile players there for the taking as well.
Given how Van Wagenen ravaged the Mets farm system, there really isn’t the prospect capital to make those trades. Sure, you can trade a Brett Baty or a Mark Vientos, but if you do that, you take the paper thin depth you have and tear through it leaving you with next to no hope for the future. No, if the Mets are going to take that next step, they are going to have to take the surplus they have at positions like first, and they are going to have to make hard choices and make shrewd trades for top end talent at areas they have significant deficiencies.
If there is no DH, the Mets would almost be forced to move at least one of Alonso or Smith to get that top end player. However, with the DH, the impetus is not there. In fact, you could argue it irresponsible to not go into next season with both Alonso and Smith if there was a DH. As noted, therein lies the problem.
The Mets aren’t really in a position to trade top end talent for top end talent in a world where there is a DH. But, if they want real baseball in the National League in 2021, the Mets would be in prime position to do it, and teams would likely line up to grab one of Alonso or Smith thereby driving up the return the Mets could receive.
So yes, given the roster construct, you could argue the Mets are better with the DH. However, in terms of building the roster, the DH stagnates growth and creativity. The impetus to make a trade is gone, and with that, you likely lose out on the ability to make the Mets the best possible team they could be in 2021.
And besides all of that, the DH is bad for the Mets because it is bad for baseball. The short-sighted hope for 2021 needs to be counter-balanced against the next 10-100 years. When you look at it that way, pushing for a completely ineffective gimmick is just plain bad for baseball, and as a result, bad for the Mets.
The Mets are in need of a centerfielder this offseason, George Springer is obviously the top target. Arguably, he is THE top target for the Mets. The problem for the Mets is Springer will be that for several baseball teams.
One of those teams is his hometown team Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox not only offer a return to home for Springer, but they also have Alex Cora, who Springer developed a good relationship with during their time on the Houston Astros. Combine that with the Red Sox deep pockets (even if they cry poor), and even with Steve Cohen, he may be difficult to sign.
If that is the case, the Mets will need to look towards their Plan B. Perhaps the top Plan B option is Jackie Bradley Jr.
The positives with Bradley is his defense. This past year, he was the second best center fielder with a 7 OAA. DRS doesn’t rank him as high, but his 5 OAA did rank him as fifth best.
The OAA mark wasn’t a short sample size anomaly with Bradley’s 6 OAA ranking him 14th. His -2 DRS tells a different story. In 2018, he was at a -1 DRS. Really, when you look at it, there has been a wide disparity between how OAA and DRS views Bradley’s defense.
According to OAA, he’s a very good fielder, and DRS has him as slightly below average. Splitting the difference, from 2018 – 2020, Bradley’s 7.9 UZR is the fourth best among center fielders.
There is a potential reason for that disparity. As described quite well and in-depth by MLB Tonights‘ Eric Byrnes, center field in Fenway Park is very complicated.
No matter which metric you rely, it is a clear Bradley would be a significant upgrade defensively at an important position. That said, there is a debate as to how much of an upgrade he represents. There is also the issue as to how long he can be that upgrade.
Next year, Bradley will be 31. While he hasn’t show issues with slowing down per se, he has never been fast for his position. In fact, even at his quickest in 2018, his 27.8 ft/sec sprint speed was only 50th best at the position.
Really, Bradley relies upon positioning and a good quick jump to field his position. In terms of positioning, the Mets promise to truly fortify the front office, which would give him what he needs to succeed from a positioning standpoint. However, once he loses a step, his days in center may well be over.
That is very problematic for Bradley as he is not a very good offensive player. For his career, he is only a 93 wRC+. Heading into 2020, he was really declining at the plate posting a 90 wRC+ over the previous three seasons.
That indicates his 119 wRC+ in 2020 was a complete outlier. When you dig through the numbers, it was a the result of a wholly unreliable small sample size. His .343 BABIP will regress back to his .298 career mark. According to his Baseball Savant page, his hard hit percentage and exit velocities are in a three year decline.
This all makes Bradley a massive risk. He’s at an age when his skills will be in decline. That does double for his speed and jump. He does not have the bat where he can play at a corner outfield position. Really, where his bat is now, you cannot justify playing him everyday unless he is playing a very good to elite center field.
If you are the Mets, this should be a good indication Springer needs to be the top target this offseason, and he may be the player they need to go past their point of comfort to ensure he comes to the Mets. If not Springer, there aren’t really any viable Plan B options because it would seem Bradley isn’t one.
With the rise of Andres Gimenez, the Mets are already moving on in some ways from Amed Rosario. To wit, the are reports Rosario will be moved to a utility role in 2021.
This should come as no surprise as Rosario has been given time to establish himself as the Mets everyday shortstop. Unfortunately, for a myriad of reasons, that hasn’t happened. With a better SS option on the Major League roster, Rosario needs to play somewhere.
Looking at the Mets current roster, there are holes at third and center. Presumably, Rosario could fill either spot.
In terms of third, his continued marked improvement at short with his strong arm suggests he could play very well there. That said, there should be some reservation over his ability to go to his left.
Of course, the bigger issue is his bat. At a career 89 wRC+, including a regression in 2020, his bat won’t play at third.
It would, however, play in center. The bigger issue is whether he can play the position. There are strong indications he can.
In his career, Rosario has exhibited elite sprint speed. Even with his 28.7 ft/second being a career low, he’d still rank in the top 20 among center fielders (if he played the position).
Really, he has the speed to not only play center, but to play the position at a high level. With Luis Rojas, he also has a manager in place who can get him quickly up to speed in center.
Now, the obvious rebuttal is there are better options than Rosario in center. That’s absolutely true. Either George Springer or Jackie Bradley Jr. would be a significant upgrade.
The Mets should absolutely pursue them as well as other options. That said, just because the Mets have significant interest and money to spend doesn’t de facto mean they’ll land either player. For example, the Red Sox also have very deep pockets and are rumored to be interested in Springer.
The Mets may also need or want to allocate their offseason budget towards the pitching staff and catcher. Neither of those areas are going to be cheap to address in free agency.
As such, the Mets need a viable CF alternative plan. Given his skill set and the need to find a position for him, the Mets should be preparing the Rosario in CF contingency plan.
If for no other reason, the Mets should pursue this path for Rosario to make him more versatile and to make him a backup at the position.
With his contract up and new ownership in place, Terry Collins has departed the New York Mets and has announced his retirement.
There’s a lot to say about Collins and his tenure as Mets manager. More than the wins and losses was Collins the person. He is a good and decent man who connected with everyone, and he’s going to be missed.
We’ve seen it from fans who remember him celebrating with them in Chicago. His players, like Noah Syndergaard, always spoke highly of him and continue to do so
I will always be grateful to this man. Simply an amazing human. Thank you TC. https://t.co/BEoeD0YmX7
— Noah Syndergaard (@Noahsyndergaard) November 20, 2020
It’s not just what we saw and heard from Collins. It is what he did when no one was looking.
Five years ago, as the Mets were going through a mercurial season which ended in heartbreak, Collins took the time to send condolences to a widow of a family he didn’t know.
For me, that’ll be the lasting memory of Collins. He was a man who took the time to do the right thing even when his job was extremely difficult and tense. He did it when no one was looking.
Overall, Collins is a good man, and you’re never better off as an organization when you lose genuinely good human beings like him.
Being the person he is, he still has a lot to offer the world. No matter what he does, here’s hoping he finds something which brings him as much joy as watching his team win a pennant. As a man, he deserves that and much more.