Musings
During the contentious Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiation, one key point was the implementation of the Steve Cohen Tax. In essence, a fourth tier to the tax was created with minimal movement on the threshold. For some reason, the players accepted the offer.
That was already proven to be catastrophic. That goes double with all the increased revenue MLB will receive as a result of the expansion of the postseason and exclusive deals struck for streaming games. In essence, there’s a lot more money in baseball, no real movement on the CBT thresholds, and no real motivation for teams to spend.
We’re already seeing the fallout of the new CBA.
The Oakland Athletics were in the postseason race last year and would have a better path to the postseason this year. They were in the postseason in 2018 – 2020. Despite that success, they’re tearing it all down. Bob Melvin will now manage the San Diego Padres. Chris Bassitt was traded to the New York Mets. Matt Olson was traded to the Atlanta Braves. Matt Chapman was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays. There are more moves on the horizon.
If you think that is bad, look at what the Cincinnati Reds are doing. While the Athletics got big returns in their trades which should help them turnover their roster and return to contention at some point, it’s like the Reds aren’t even trying. They’re just dumping salary, and they appear to be looking to move more money.
Already, the Reds traded Sonny Gray to the Minnesota Twins. They traded Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez to the Seattle Mariners. We may soon see the impossible with the Reds looking to trade Joey Votto. For his part, Votto is disappointed not just in that prospect, but also in the fact this Reds team was in the 2020 postseason and looked to be a move or two away from contention in 2022. They chose the opposite path.
For all those who declared the CBA was a win for fans, they flat out lied. It did nothing to prevent the Athletics and Reds from tearing it down. The Pirates and Marlins will continue to operate with the smallest possible payrolls. We will see other teams fail to go that extra mile. This is all an embarrassment to the game, and MLB fans are owed an apology from MLB.
If in 2019, Jacob deGrom spoke with reporters and said he wasn’t signing an extension but was instead testing the free agent market, New York Mets fan would’ve been in a panic.
The Wilpons never could’ve afforded a bidding war for deGrom. For that matter, they probably had zero interest in one. In all likelihood, it would’ve been the Jose Reyes to the Miami Marlins all over again.
Put another way, deGrom would’ve been gone without an offer, and the Mets would be playing media games. No Mets fan could’ve handled that.
However, now, deGrom announces he’s opting out, and fans are wondering just how much more the Mets will give him. There’s just an implicit trust Steve Cohen and the organization will not let deGrom leave. Certainly, not over money.
After all, we saw the Mets give Max Scherzer $43 million per year to join the rotation despite his being 37. We saw Cohen shrug off the Cohen Tax and announce he’s going over it.
Now, this isn’t to say deGrom returning is a lock. Weird things happen. For that matter, the opt out isn’t an absolute certainty. There’s a lot that can happen during the 2022 season.
What we know is Cohen has the money. We also know deGrom has repeatedly said he wants the chance to spend his entire career with the Mets. Both have the will to make deGrom a lifetime Met.
Because this isn’t the Wilpons, we can have faith it will happen. Because we’ve seen the lengths Cohen is willing to go this offseason, we can trust it will happen.
In many ways, this is the best part of Cohen buying the Mets from the Wilpons. We can believe and trust it will happen.
The New York Mets were the first Major League team to swoop in and take advantage of the Oakland Athletics tear down by obtaining Chris Bassitt for J.T. Ginn and Adam Oller. It was a very strong move for the Mets with Bassitt being a terrific fit for the Mets rotation.
What is interesting with Bassitt is just how overlooked he is. Since 2018, he has a 3.23 ERA, 1.141 WHIP, and a 129 ERA+. His ERA is 17th best in the majors over that time frame. His 4.37 FIP ranks 43rd. His 3.22 K/BB ranks 56th. His 32.78% hard hit rate is good for 30th in the majors.
Going to Baseball Savant, Bassitt is among the best in the majors in limiting hard contact despite not having elite velocity or spin. As noted by Owen McGrattan of Fangraphs, Bassitt does this by how he mixes up his pitches as well as his release points. The overall result is his taking average stuff and having it play as a top of the rotation type of pitcher.
While that may sound a bit incredulous by the aforementioned numbers, keep in mind there are 30 teams in the majors. If you are in the top 60 in any category, you’re pitching at the level of a 1-2 starter. That’s where Bassitt has been. He’s pitching like a number two starter in terms of results. We can dicker about his stuff and natural ability, but the end result is Bassitt pitches like a two starter.
Of course, with the Mets, he’s nowhere near that. He’s a very large step behind Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer because the vast majority of starting pitchers are. There’s not shame in that whatsoever. When healthy, you can argue Carlos Carrasco is one of the best pitchers in baseball. After all, Carrasco was coming off a 153 ERA+ before he was traded to the Mets.
That’s just the thing., Carrasco had an injury riddled season. In each of the last two seasons, deGrom has been nicked up. Taijuan Walker has a lengthy injury history. Scherzer has had good health in his career, but he is also 37. Looking at the Mets rotation, it is both deep and questionable in terms of the ability to get 30 starts from everyone.
It is one thing to have Tylor Megill and David Peterson ready to step into the rotation. That is admirable depth, and it’s all the more admirable with Trevor Williams and Jordan Yamamoto in the mix. However, those are back end of the rotation type of guys. They are not pitchers who can reasonably replicate a top of the rotation starter.
That’s what makes Bassitt so important. By performance, he’s a two starter. However, in this rotation, he’s a number three, and you could argue he’s the fourth starter. When and if an injury occurs, the need to replace a top of the rotation isn’t that much of a concern because the middle to back end of the rotation pitchers on this team are really top to middle pitchers.
The Bassitt acquisition makes this rotation even deeper than it was, and arguably, it makes the Mets rotation the deepest in baseball. When all five of these starters are pitching on the top of their game, something that Jeremy Hefner has helped them do, there is no rotation better in baseball. That’s just how much Bassitt means to this team.
Did you ever see the movie Clue? The ongoing bit in the movie was “Communism is just a red herring.” Hilarious, and sadly, it is exactly what we are seeing with the baseball collective bargaining negotiations..
There is a very lengthy and needed discussion on international free agency and how to best curb the abuses. While many believe the draft is the best idea, there are players like David Ortiz and Fernando Tatis, Jr. who have real concern what it will not only do to the game, but also what impact it will have on their native country.
It is a concern voiced by many Puerto Ricans. Francisco Lindor and other prominent Puerto Ricans have spoken out about the negative impact Puerto Ricans being included in the Rule 4 draft has had on baseball and the economy of Puerto Rico.
There are also many who want to discuss the fairness in the system where players from different countries are treated differently. Why is it a player from the United States has to go to a team who drafts them while a player from Venezuela can pick their team? Why is it a player from Puerto Rico can be the top overall pick in the draft and receive a bonus in excess of $8 million while the entire bonus pool to sign a player from the Dominican Republic is capped at roughly $6 million?
Get informed before jumping to conclusions. pic.twitter.com/VA34RbC3K0
— Francisco Lindor (@Lindor12BC) March 10, 2022
There is inherent problems and fairness to be discussed, but that is not what is happening at the moment. No, MLB is using international free agency as a union busting mechanism to ensure the lockout carries on, and they ultimately receive complete player capitulation. If you don’t see it, you’re ignoring all the evidence.
Max Scherzer and Lindor talked about how MLB did not offer the players anything in exchange for the draft, so the players passed. It is also important to note it is well known this would be a deal breaker for many Caribbean players, and by making it an issue now, it really accomplishes to try to split the union to weaken their position and strengthen MLB’s ability to further win these negotiations.
More than that, it’s just another example of MLB negotiating completely in bad faith. For example, just look at what Jon Heyman tweeted about the MLBPA actually accepting the parameters of a deal only for the owners to reject it because the approval came after MLB’s self imposed 6 PM deadline:
Players made an offer late today: They’d spend the season working on a world draft and if it didn’t work out, qualifying offers/free agent comp would be re-installed at year’s end. This was Manfred’s idea Tuesday night but was rejected because it came after MLB’s 6 pm deadline.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) March 10, 2022
That is what is most telling of all. The MLBPA accepted it, and the owners rejected their own proposal . Again, this has nothing to do with an international draft or how to best curb the abuses in international free agency. Rather, it is the latest in the series of underhanded tactics from MLB designed to break the players. It is something New York Mets owner Steve Cohen hinted at:
Oh. pic.twitter.com/XzBWhowAq7
— David Lesky (@DBLesky) March 9, 2022
If you’re blaming the MLBPA or both sidsing your disdain for the CBA negotiations dragging on this long and threatening to shorten or even cancel the season, you’re completely wrong. It is more than evident this is completely on the owners, who are using every PR tactic they have to fool you. This time, it’s the international draft. Next, who knows, but just don’t fall for it again.
As the lockout continues, it is becoming increasingly clear this isn’t just about trying to get the best possible deal for the owners. It is also about limiting just how much Steve Cohen can use his pocketbook to try to improve the New York Mets.
As noted by Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, not only is the laughably called Competitive Balance Tax going to remain, but there is going to be another threshold added. That third threshold is supposedly going to be directed at owners who seek to “spend well above the pack.” According to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, there may be a fourth tier to address this.
Make no mistake here, this is directly aimed at Cohen. This also comes on the heels of his signing Max Scherzer and Starling Marte. We also know the Mets have inquired on a number of players including Kris Bryant and Freddie Freeman. We know they are looking to add another bat and another starter. When all is said and done, the Mets payroll may very well be a Major League record.
This is something Mets fans have been waiting to see forever. The Mets play in the largest media market in the world. Now that we have the owner to do it, the other MLB teams are actively trying to get them to stop. As Heyman noted, this is directly aimed at the Mets and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Suddenly, after a decade, MLB is concerned about the Mets payroll. This was a team which was leveraged to keep the Wilpons financially solvent, and the product on the field suffered. If the team spent like a large market team, that 2015 run could have been sustained instead of fizzling out after the 2016 season.
We also could have seen the Mets add what they really needed in 2019, and we should have seen the franchise re-sign Zack Wheeler. In many ways, what the Wilpons did led directly to Cohen spending wild this offseason. In fact, MLB being alright with a large market club artificially suppressing wages led to Cohen looking to break payroll records.
For a decade, Mets fans were absolutely cheated. They didn’t get nearly the product or team on the field they deserve, and MLB owners were laughing all the way to the bank as they got to sign the Mets free agents with little to no competition from the franchise. Now, that the Mets can return to their glory days of the 1980s is MLB stepping in to try to fix the Mets financial picture.
This is an outright insult to Mets fans, and it cannot reasonably be taken any other way, especially when Apple TV announces a lucrative deal the day after the New York Yankees were bemoaning just how much MLB is limited in trying to generate new revenue streams.
Our only hope is Cohen treats MLB the same way it treated Mets fans when they allowed the Wilpons to do to the team and the fanbase what they did. Hopefully, Cohen will be laughing all the way to the bank as we revel in multiple World Series titles. That would be the only way to make things right.
Sometimes, rule changes initially made by baseball are met with immediate disdain, and the concerns about these rule changes are largely proven false. The best example of this has been the divisional and wild card eras. These changes actually proved beneficial for the game.
Then, there are changes where it seemed like a great idea, but it hurt the game. A classic example there is the automatic walk. Sure, we don’t notice it anymore, but with the loss of the automatic walk we lost the anything can happen at anytime moment in the game. The random wild pitch or batter swinging at a ball just out of the zone has forever been eliminated
Remember, what makes baseball truly great is that every pitch means so much and that in any moment anything can happen you have never before seen. With the automatic walk, that was gone forever. That’s just what Rob Manfred has sought to do as the commissioner. He is looking to take away what makes baseball great.
Manfred keeps pushing his agenda to try to change the game while failing to do what actually needs to be done to grow the game. In the end, we are getting some many rule changes, perhaps more than at any other point in Major League history, forever changing the game and making it almost a new sport:
- Automatic Walks
- Elimination of LOOGYs
- Universal DH
- Pitch Clock
- Bigger Bases
- Expanded Postseason
Beyond that, Manfred wants the ability to implement more rule changes in 2023 and beyond with a 45 day notice to the players. You can only imagine what flat out dumb ideas Manfred will come up with to further ruin the game.
The sad part is this does nothing to actually accomplish the stated goal of increasing offense. It’s not like eliminating the shift or adding a universal DH is going to make Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer suddenly forget how to pitch. It doesn’t work that way, and in the end, all MLB is accomplishing is maybe adding an extra 1-2 runs per week . . . if that.
That’s the problem. As we see with the universal DH, it accomplishes nothing to actually increase the offense. Rather, what it does is eliminate the strategical aspect of the game. That is the part of the game which keeps fans engaged during the time between pitches. That’s the part that makes baseball interesting. That is what makes baseball great.
The sad part is MLB is undergoing all of these radical changes which have no impact while ignoring baseball’s real and very fixable problems. All MLB needed to do was to lift lockout restrictions, and they needed to be better at promoting the game through social media to help catch the attention of the younger fans they covet. They really, really suck at social media.
That should come as no surprise because the people in charge think the best way to grow the game is to fundamentally change it, piss off their core diehard fans, and to institute a lockout leading to the cancellation of games. At some point, we just have to ask ourselves what are we even doing anymore?
Throughout the CBA negotiations, we saw a pattern. The MLBPA kept making major concessions, and they were met with little to no movement from the owners. In fact, many times, MLB’s offer could have been perceived as a step backwards.
Consider what the owners have tried to slip into negotiations. At one point, they tried to get the MLBPA to agree to give MLB the right to unilaterally eliminate minor league jobs as they saw fit. MLB eventually pulled that back, and we can assume MLB realized they could do that on their own volition anyway like when they contracted minor league teams.
On the day of MLB’s self-imposed deadline, they tried to insert many new clauses and conditions into the new CBA. That included but was not limited to:
- Eliminating shifts
- Increasing base sizes
- 20 second pitch clock
- Incorporating meal per diem into the CBT calculation
Introducing those and other measures at the last minute was not designed to get a deal done. Rather, it was introduced to get each and everything the owners truly want. They made a take-it or leave-it offer with everything they wanted. They did it with the threat of cancelling games which would accompany a cut in player salaries and interference with service time.
In total, the owners said surrender, or we will make things worse for you in the future. Of course, the players didn’t relent even though they had done it throughout the negotiations. They stood firm, and in all likelihood, they will continue to do so. As has been noted many times over, in all likelihood, this is going to push baseball towards a protracted legal dispute.
Put another way, we are in this for the long haul. With the owners having hardliners who can block the consummation of any agreement, we know the owners aren’t going to bend unless they are forced to do so. This means there’s really no chance for a last minute unexpected deal.
In the end, that means the cancellation of the first two series is just the tip of the iceberg. We are going to see more and more games cancelled, and at some point, much like in 1994, we should be bracing for the inevitable and shocking result. It is very, very possible we will not see the 2022 season be played.
In the event that does happen, it will ultimately be the owners who are to blame. They don’t care about the present and future of the game. They just care about total domination of the players. They’re not going to get it, and in the end, that will mean no baseball.
With the collective bargaining agreement stalemate, and Commissioner Rob Manfred announcing the first two series of the Major League season will be canceled, minor league baseball appears to be set to be the only baseball left to be played. This was the case on August 12, 1994 until the end of that season, and right now, we don’t know how long it will be until MLB and the MLBPA reach an agreement.
This begs the question about how this will affect the minor league season. In many ways, the answer is not at all, but in a more global sense, it is a huge impact due to all of the uncertainty.
40 Man Roster Issues
First and foremost, this lockout impacts players on the 40 man roster. Keep in mind with Major League rosters being capped at 26 players, the 14 players who were supposed to play in the minors are now not permitted to play with their respective organizations.
This past offseason, the New York Mets added Mark Vientos, Ronny Mauricio, Adam Oller, and Jose Butto to their 40 man roster. They’re now not eligible to play in games or participate in Spring Training. The same goes for players like Travis Blankenhorn, Khalil Lee, Patrick Mazeika, and Nick Plummer who were likely ticketed for Triple-A to start the season.
Spring Training Battles
If we look back to the pandemic shortened season of 2020, MLB had a very abbreviated “Summer Camp” with players reporting on July 1 and beginning the season on July 24. In 1995, the strike and lockout meant Spring Training was delayed. When the two sides finally agreed to a deal, Spring Training was just three weeks. We’re very likely to see something akin to that again.
As a result, we are not going to have the opportunity to see Spring Training battles breath. At least at the moment, Tylor Megill and David Peterson appear poised to battle for the fifth starter spot. With no real Spring Training, and both pitchers being shut down because they are on the 40 man roster, it would appear the Mets would be all the more emboldened to sign another starter.
Speaking of Spring Training battles, there are those veterans who signed minor league deals. For example, this offseason the Mets signed Daniel Palka who has played 154 Major League games in his career and Matt Reynolds who has played 130 games. They would be permitted to play in Spring Training, where they would not be paid, and they can then report to play in Triple-A Syracuse regardless of the status of the CBA negotiations.
Rule 5 Draft
As noted, players not on the 40 man roster are permitted to participate in Spring Training, and they can begin their minor league seasons when they are slated to begin. That is an enormous benefit for players like Carlos Cortes, Brian Metoyer, and Hayden Senger. Each of these players were on the bubble for Rule 5 protection, and the Mets opted to expose them to the draft.
This means Cortes, Metoyer, and Senger will get to play and improve. That will also give teams an opportunity to get a better look at those three players in determining whether they should be selected in the Rule 5 draft. Of course, that also works in the inverse with the Mets getting a deeper look into players they might be targeting.
Keep in mind, there isn’t much precedent here for this. In 1994, because there was a strike but not a lockout, teams were able to proceed with their business as usual and hold the Rule 5 draft in December (even if it was delayed twice). For the 2020 season, the Rule 5 draft had already taken place in December 2019 because COVID-19 was not yet a concern.
Another important note here is as MLB cancels games, it becomes easier to carry Rule 5 drafted players. As a result, the risk in selecting a Rule 5 player has been greatly mitigated. Another factor at play here is we may see players get drafted based on early season results who may not have been otherwise considered. To sum up, this is a quagmire.
Games
At the moment, the Mets have their minor league mini-camp. Minor League Spring Training is also set to officially begin this week. As of right now, according to their official schedule, the Mets are slated to play their first Spring Training game on March 12 against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Of course, games were supposed to begin February 28, but it was delayed due to the lockout. As of right now, there is no official word if games will be delayed further. That said, there will likely be some form of a Spring Training game schedule even absent a CBA being in place to allow the minor leaguers to prepare for their season. The season for the Mets full season affiliates are set to begin as follows:
- Syracuse Mets – April 5
- Binghamton Rumble Ponies – April 8
- Brooklyn Cyclones – April 8
- St. Lucie Mets – April 8
For those Mets fans who want to attend a baseball game, the Brooklyn Cyclones home opener will be on April 12 at 7:00 P.M. against the Jersey Shore Blue Claws (Phillies).
Coaching
Right now, the Mets are paying Buck Showalter a lot of money to manage a team which is not set to play. That leaves Showalter with the job of preparing to prepare for the season. In some ways, that’s extremely beneficial for the new staff with new coaches like Eric Chavez to come to work together.
It also gives them an opportunity to work with the minor leaguers in Spring Training, and perhaps, depending on the length of the lockout, to travel to work with some of the minor leaguers. This presents an enormous opportunity for players like Brett Baty, who is battling with Vientos for that future third base job. More than that, it allows some of the more unheralded prospects like a Harol Gonzalez to make an impression in camp and get an advocate from the Major League coaching staff in their corner.
That just speaks to just how different everything will be for minor leaugers. Yes, the players not on the 40 man roster will have no change to their schedule. They will report to Spring Training at the same time, and they will play the games like they normally do.
However, they will also get more exposure to Major League coaching, and they have more of an opportunity to distinguish themselves. Moreover, they will get to prepare for their season and work on their games while fellow minor leaugers who are on the 40 man roster will be at home unpaid and without a chance to work with their coaches to improve their game.
In December, MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred said it would be a disaster if MLB was forced to cancel games due to the MLB imposed lockout. On what was the final day of negotiations to save the 162 game season, Manfred was caught working on his golf game.
Associated Press photo taken by Lynne Sladky earlier this afternoon of MLB commissioner Rob Manfred at Roger Dean Stadium, where labor talks are being held. pic.twitter.com/isAzV6P86o
— Michael Silverman (@MikeSilvermanBB) March 1, 2022
Now, you may say that’s unfair or blown out of proportion, but it’s not. Really, this is indicative of what Manfred has been as the commissioner. One minute he’s serving up empty platitudes; the next he’s working at his golf game while others are negotiating.
Consider the fact the lockout happened on December 2, 2022. MLB followed with complete radio silence in their dealings with the MLBPA, and their first offer didn’t occur until 43 days later.
FORTY-THREE DAYS.
Reporter asks why real bargaining didn’t begin until three months after the lockout started
Rob Manfred literally does not answer the question pic.twitter.com/HQOSQaIQ9L
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) March 1, 2022
When the two sides convened, Colorado Rockies owner Dick Monfort was the main story talking about the difficulty of financially owning a team. It’s an absurd talking point considering Monfort has seen the Rockies value increase a billion in value since he purchased the team.
Despite all that, Manfred echoed those sentiments in his giggling press conference.
Even though Monfort’s antics led to the other owners asking him not to be in the sessions, Monfort returned. Yes, it’s due to his being the chairman of the labor committee.
That’s indicative of his power, and we’re seeing just how much he’s effectively wielding it. For example, consider MLB’s final offer to the MLBPA which didn’t address service time manipulation and made little to no CBT raises.
MLB's best-and-final offer:
– No changes to CBT thresholds (220/220/220/224/230)
– A $5M increase on pre-arb bonus pool from $25M to $30M
– An increase of minimums from $675K to $700K, moving up $10K/year— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 1, 2022
MLB was led by Monfort in these negotiations. It wasn’t just in Monfort’s position but in terms of the offers presented. It was in the nature of negotiations and the offers presented.
Remember, this is the same owner who got in hot water for nasty and angry emails to Rockies fans. In those emails, he actively told fans to not come to the park and said Denver didn’t deserve a team.
We saw that same arrogance in the CBA discussions. When all was said and done, he led the MLB to make a final offer they knew the players would never take. He got his wish with no fans coming to the park.
At the end of the day, the commissioner answers to the owners. When you have an effective commissioner, he leads the owners to where they may not want to go for the good of the sport.
When you have a commissioner like Manfred, you don’t have a commissioner. All power has been ceded, and the organization is left rudderless.
That is, until, Monfort filled the gap. He’s the driving force of these negotiations. He was negotiating long before Manfred showed up. It was the case when Manfred was working on his golf game.
Manfred may have the title of commissioner, but it’s Monfort who acts like it.