Musings
For some reason, the New York Mets just don’t want to give Dominic Smith a full time job. Worse yet, they don’t want him to earn it either.
Consider this, of all the players on the Opening Day roster, Smith is the only player who has not started at least four games in a row. Yes, that does mean Travis Jankowski has.
As previously noted, the Mets first went with Robinson Canó and then J.D. Davis at DH. During Davis’ “winning” the DH job, an admittedly underperforming Smith was sent to Triple-A.
At the time, Smith was hitting .186/.287/.256. Again, when that’s your line, you put yourself in that position, especially when you have options.
However, Davis has similarly faltered. Since June 19, he’s hitting .162/.279/.297 striking out 16 times in 43 plate appearances (37.2%). That’s with a three hit game!
Nowhere will you find the Mets even contemplating sending down Davis. Again, he’s not hitting at all, and he can’t field any position. He’s literally useless to this Major League roster.
Despite that, he continues to get at-bats at the expense of Smith. Even with Smith historically faring better against left-handed pitching, they’ll sit Smith for Davis.
You don’t do this if you’re invested in Smith. That goes double when Smith had a hot bat. The reason is the Mets, at least the Sandy Alderson directed Mets, have never been truly invested in Smith.
This goes back to 2017 and 2018.
Smith and Amed Rosario struggled when they were first called-up. The reaction to each of them could not have been more different.
Smith was given competition to Adrian Gonzalez, who was really signed to play. The Mets preference was made all the easier when Smith was late to pregame, and Mickey Callaway felt the need to display his authority.
This was before Smith’s sleep apnea was diagnosed and treated.
When Gonzalez played poorly and was released, the Mets turned to Jay Bruce and Wilmer Flores. This for a team who was out of it in May and dead in the water in June.
To make matters worse, Smith was used as a left fielder for a good portion of the time. This was a first round pick and top 100 prospect. A Mets team completely out of it thought the best course of action was to see what he had . . . in the outfield.
Keep in mind, Rosario struggled, and the Mets went out of their way to ensure he’s have no competition for the job. Better yet, the team sent down Luis Guillorme for a stretch leaving Rosario as the ONLY shortstop on the roster.
Between 2018 and the present, there’s a pattern, and the person at the helm has been Sandy Alderson. People can say he’s out of the loop, but he’s out there making statements the Mets need to address the DH position.
That was yet another shot at Smith, a player he didn’t want.
Remember, the Mets nearly traded Smith for Eric Hosmer (horrendous contract), Chris Paddack (injured pitcher with a 96 ERA+), and Emilio Pagan (81 ERA+ over last three seasons). That’s just how much they wanted rid of Smith.
They wanted to take on a ton of money to get worse. It’s no wonder Steve Cohen was reportedly forced to nix the deal.
That’s all well and good, but the front office response was just to not let Smith earn a job. On some level, that’s personal. There’s certainly a history backing it up.
Overall, the Mets didn’t want Smith. Alderson has a long track record of not giving him a fair shot. Now, the Mets are ready to move on without even so much as giving him a week of starts to try to earn a job.
In the New York Mets 4-1 loss to the Atlanta Braves, their biggest flaw was highlighted and their downfall. Their bullpen.
We know the missed strike call to Dansby Swanson which should’ve ended the inning. However, David Peterson was pitching too long.
Peterson was at 98 pitches before he allowed that homer to Matt Olson. In the at-bat. Olson hit a very long foul. When Mookie Betts did that to Peterson in Los Angeles, Buck Showalter gave him the hook.
The Mets really weren’t able to do that here. That’s even with Peterson set to go over 100 pitches for just the third time all season. It was the third time through the order. That’s something the Mets have justifiably shielded him from all season.
Here, the Mets had little choice. After all, aside from Edwin Diaz, who do you absolutely trust in the Mets bullpen right now? The answer is probably nobody.
Well, Diaz was unavailable as was Adam Ottavino. The Mets bullpen was short, and they needed Peterson to get through six. He didn’t, and he allowed the Olson two run homer to put the Mets down 2-1.
Seth Lugo came in and was huge getting the Mets out of that inning. And then, he was not S he allowed his own two run homer to Adam Duvall in the seventh.
Just like that a shallow and tired pen helped turn what could’ve been a 1-0 win into a 4-1 loss.
Yes, we can and should point to the offense. However, the Mets had a lead. They just don’t have the arms to bring games like these home.
Drew Smith is increasingly unrealizable and can’t get left-handed batters out. Joely Rodriguez is a LOOGY and not really cut out for the three batter rule.
Tommy Hunter is a great story, but you still don’t know if he can trust him quite yet. Same goes for Colin Holderman, who did pitch well in this game and all season. Maybe they’ll get there, especially Holderman, but the Mets don’t trust him completely right now.
That leaves you questioning who else is there? Well, until Trevor May comes back, the answer is no one. That’s the problem.
Sure, with Max Scherzer pitching, it masks the problem. When he gives you seven, you just need one inning from someone not named Diaz. The same is true for when Jacob deGrom comes back from the IL.
Taijuan Walker is approaching this level, and Chris Bassitt is a strong 6+ inning starter. With this starting pitching, you don’t need much in the bullpen.
The Mets proved this in 2015. One of the ways do address a faltering bullpen is to just not use it. Let the starters absorb the innings.
The plan works, but you need more than just a Jeurys Famila, or in this case, a Diaz. They’re also going to need more than just May returning and Peterson likely shifting to the bullpen come October.
The Mets need an answer. That may come from a Holderman. Mostly, it’s going to have to be a trade deadline move. Really, it’s both that are needed. We’ll see if the Mets get it.
James McCann is out with an injury, and we have no idea how long it will be. Chances are it may effectively be a season ending injury. That leaves the Mets with Tomás Nido. As we have seen with Nido, he does his job behind the plate, and as a result, the New York Mets have been comfortable using him as their main catcher.
The problem is they haven’t been as comfortable with Patrick Mazeika. That is understandable with Mazeika having a 41 wRC+. With him being an average framer, carrying that bat is a problem. Yes, it is a small sample size, but it’s essentially what Mazeika has been, i.e. a poor man’s version of Josh Thole.
When Mazeika is looked upon as a stopgap, he has been more than fine. However, the Mets need more than that now. After all, the Mets are looking for a catching tandem to take them through what is now a tight NL East race and potentially into the postseason.
Seeing what he did in Double-A, the natural impetus is to renew the calls for Francisco Álvarez. There are many, many good reasons to consider it.
Max Scherzer was impressed with his work behind the plate during his rehab start. There have been more and more people noting the significant improvement he has made. Arguably, the bat is already there, and many Mets fans are looking upon him as being able to have the same type of impact Michael Conforto had in 2015.
None of this should be dismissed outright. It is shouldn’t be dismissed he is right not viewed as the best prospect in the minor leagues. With him, everyone sees a future star, and we have already seen Keith Law of The Athletic drop a Mike Piazza comp on Álvarez with no one thinking it was ridiculous.
That all said, in Triple-A, you see some cause for patience. Over his first five games, he is hitting just .125/.286/.188 with a double and two RBI. He has struck out five times in 21 plate appearances (not bad at all) while drawing two walks.
Yes, this is an extremely small sample size to which no conclusions should be drawn. Rather, we need to use it for perspective.
Álvarez is a 20 year old catcher. He was the youngest player in the Eastern League, and he’s the youngest player in Triple-A. In fact, he’s 6.5 years younger than league average. That will be more pronounced at the Major League level.
That may be a factor why he is not hitting . . . yet. Ultimately, we know he will hit at this level. To that point, just wait for it. It could be a week, month, or in 2023. The Mets don’t know. Whatever the case, they don’t want to rush a player who is not quite hitting yet in Triple-A and then tell him to go out there and hit Major League pitching.
We’ve seen this mistake in the past. The Mets rushed Mike Pelfrey in 2006 because they needed pitching. He wasn’t ready, and you can argue, to a certain extent, it hampered Pelfrey’s development. He became a viable Major League pitcher but nothing more.
We saw the Chicago Cubs do it with Kyle Schwarber in 2015. They needed the bat, so they took him out from behind the plate. Schwarber has hit, but he went from horrendous LF to can’t play first to a DH.
The Mets won’t play Álvarez in the outfield, but rushing him before he is absolutely ready to catch Major League pitching can have negative consequences on a catcher’s career. After all, look at Gary Sanchez‘s career. He went from future superstar to traded to the Minnesota Twins for a Twins salary dump just so Sanchez can be a bad DH.
That’s the Mets current problem. They have a phenom everyone thinks will be an All-Star or more. They see a player who fits a need RIGHT NOW for a team capable of winning a World Series. Yes, if Álvarez is ready, he puts this team over the top, but when he’s not hitting in Triple-A, the risk is too great.
No, the Mets have to hold out for now. At a minimum, let Álvarez get hot in Triple-A, and then, lets have that conversation. Unfortunately, we just cant’ have it right now.
The New York Mets just could not help themselves. Dominic Smith has been hitting, and he was looking more and more comfortable at the plate. It looked like he could be an answer for the DH position while splitting time at first with Pete Alonso.
But no, the Cincinnati Reds were starting a left-handed pitcher. They started Nick Lodolo. Yes, right-handed batters beat him up. However, not right-handed batters like J.D. Davis.
In a play out of Terry Collins‘ book with Michael Conforto, Buck Showalter (or whichever analytical member of the Mets making the decision) shoe horned Davis into the lineup. After all, if a batter is left-handed, they can’t possibly hit left-handed pitching.
It doesn’t matter that since 2019 Smith has a 127 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, and Davis has a 117. Since 2020, Smith has a 126 wRC+ against left-handed pitching to Davis’ 102. Anyway you look at it, Smith hits left-handed pitching better than Davis.
If we’re being honest, as far as left-handed pitching goes, Davis only seems to hit Patrick Corbin well, and that seemed to be only before this season. This season, Davis has been bad, very bad.
Davis has a 97 wRC+. That is despite his being shielded from better pitching. He was given every opportunity to grab the DH job, and he has a 31.6% strikeout rate, 1.74 GB/FB, and he is among the worst players in all of the majors in whiff% and K%.
Looking deeper, since 2000, Smith has a 100 wRC+ to Davis’ 84. That’s against all pitching. Smith can actually play first base well, and with Alonso completely regressing defensively with a -5 OAA, you can argue the Mets need Smith at first. Alonso could also be the answer for the Mets DH woes. Those woes were created by Davis being terrible.
Despite everything, Davis was given the start. He rewarded the Mets faith in him by going 0-for-3 at the plate with two strikeouts. His one lone non-strikeout plate appearance was pop out to first baseman Mike Moustakas in foul territory. Simply put, when you put a player like Davis into the game for his offense, you deserve to be shutout, which the Mets were.
Simply put, Davis cannot hit. He cannot field. For some reason, he keeps getting at-bats from the DH spot. Smith struggled and was sent down to Triple-A. Davis is flat out bad, and the Mets go out of their way to find him more plate appearances.
Davis needs to be sent down now. If not that, he should be designated for assignment. That’s if you can’t foist him on a team who still thinks he can be good. Good luck with that. Whatever the case, Davis should be much closer to gone than ever being in the lineup again.
Watching Luis Guillorme against the Houston Astros was a thing of beauty. His defense alone was worth the price of admission, and he really have not seen a New York Mets player play defense at this level since Juan Lagares or even Rey Ordonez. He’s just been that magical out there.
"Guillorme just continues to shine!" ✨ pic.twitter.com/cF5SyCCWTC
— SNY (@SNYtv) June 29, 2022
His defense in the game was on another level with 10 assists and two put outs. He was lunging and fielding balls towards the middle. He was one handing balls and making strong throws. He was grabbing hot shots to the hot corner. With the ground ball pitcher Taijuan Walker, the Houston Astros sent 12 balls his way, and Guillorme ensured they led to outs.
This is part of what has been a stellar year defensively for Guillorme. He has a 3 OAA in his time split between second, third, and short. He rates as the fifth best second baseman in the NL and 10th in the majors. If he had enough innings to quality, he would be the eighth best shortstop in the NL and 11th overall, and he would be the seven best third baseman in the NL and 14th overall.
Keep in mind, that is with Guillorme playing the fewest innings for each of these positions. With more innings at any of these three positions, he would likely rank higher or even much higher in any of these rankings. However, on the Mets, they need him to be a defensive wizard across the diamond.
That shouldn’t diminish what he has done this season. You see it every time he steps on the field. He makes all the routine plays, and he makes the hard plays. More than that, he is making the plays no one makes. His footwork is phenomenal, and he’s one of the best in the majors at turning the double play.
Despite all of that, there is no shot he is going to be a contender for any Gold Gloves. He is simply not going to log the innings needed at any position to quality. Due to the Mets needs and technicalities, one of the best fielders in the game will not be recognized for his play this season. That’s an unforced error by baseball.
Keep in mind, this is a league who instituted a rule for a universal DH. There is a whole non-position whose only job is to hit. That player doesn’t fight the rest of baseball for a Silver Slugger. Instead, that non-position gets one all to themselves. It should naturally follow there would be a separate Gold Glove just for utility players, i.e. those players who demonstrate defensive brilliance all across the diamond.
Overall, when you look at baseball in 2022, it is difficult to argue Guillorme isn’t one of the best defenders in the game. If there was any justice, he would at least be a finalist for a Gold Glove. However, because baseball is too busy look to rebuild Rob Manfred’s image and tell us everything they think is wrong with the sport while instituting rules which do nothing to generate fan interest, they’ll purposefully overlook honoring top defenders on mere technicalities.
That practice needs to end, and it need to end with Guillorme getting a Gold Glove this season.
The New York Mets played the Houston Astros four times over the past week, and it just didn’t go well for the Mets. Not only did the Astros sweep all four games, but they also dominated them.
As Mets fans, we can lie to ourselves. We can say it’ll be different when the Mets have Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. Truth is, that might not be sufficient.
We saw that with Taijuan Walker’s start. He was again brilliant shutting the Astros out over 7.1 innings. Edwin Diaz finished that inning, but Drew Smith couldn’t keep it scoreless allowing a two run homer to Jason Castro.
Even with the homer from the backup catcher hitting .095, it was just two runs. When your pitchers all two runs, that’s a winnable game. When you’re at home, you need to win those games.
The excuse will be it was Justin Verlander. Fine, he’s a future Hall of Famer, and he leads the AL in wins. He was great. However, that doesn’t explain one run scored over two games and six over four games against the Astros.
Come up with your reasons. Once you cycle through them, there’s one simple answer – the Astros are just better. That’s a big problem.
If the Mets want to win a World Series, the Astros are a potential roadblock. If not them, the New York Yankees, who are having a historically great season.
Before that, there’s the defending World Series champion Atlanta Braves, the Los Angeles Dodgers, and really, the seeming randomness of the postseason.
For the Mets, they need to admit their problems and find solutions. Really, they’re pretty obvious.
First and foremost, J.D. Davis is not a DH. They need to stop forcing it. Maybe the team gives Dominic Smith another look. Maybe they call-up Mark Vientos.
Whatever the Mets decide, they can’t play Davis anymore. He’s been a disaster. Sure, people will run to say the same about Smith, but whatever. Point is, DH is a black hole for the Mets.
This alludes to another issue. With Francisco Lindor struggling again (potentially due to the broken finger), Pete Alonso is the ONLY power threat.
The Mets need to try to give someone a look there before they can make a trade. While we’re on that subject, Chasen Shreve can’t pitch for this team again.
Shreve hasn’t performed for two months now, and he’s getting worse. The Mets need to find his replacement ASAP. While they’re at it, it couldn’t hurt to add another reliever for the late innings.
There’s some other areas to address. However, Jeff McNeil’s versatility and Luis Guillorme’s glove answers many of those problems.
There’s more from there, but those potential problem areas may be overstated. Overall, we see against better pitching and fielding teams, the put the ball in plat approach fails. That’s been very true for the Mets.
None of this is an overreaction. The Mets are great and can win a World Series. However, that doesn’t change the facts. The Astros are in a different class than the Mets.
That’s with or without deGrom and Scherzer. Yes. deGrom and Scherzer can lead the Mets to a World Series. They can also lose due to the inability to score runs against good pitching and defense teams.
With each day, the Mets issues become more apparent. Fortunately, there’s still time to address them. Hopefully, the Mets admit them now and become incredibly pro-active.
For the past few seasons, the June Swoon has been a thing for the New York Mets. It has been what has derailed otherwise promising seasons, and it has left the team playing catch-up in the second half.
In 2015, the Mets entered June tied for first place, and after playing under .500 for the month found themselves 3.5 games back. They needed a torrid second half to win the division, and that second half hot streak carried them to a pennant.
The following season, the Mets were again under .500 putting them 6.0 games back of the Washington Nationals. For all intents and purposes, the NL East race was all but wrapped up, and the team had to do a mad dash to claim the top Wild Card.
The 2017 and 2018 seasons were disasters before the Mets reached June. Notably, the Mets were especially bad in June 2018 going 5-21 over the course of the month ruining any chance of the team looking to make the postseason.
That ushered in the Brodie Van Wagenen Error, sorry Era. It should come as no surprise he did nothing to build a team to avoid the June Swoon. That year, the Mets were 10-18, and despite their late season attempts, they couldn’t quite get back into the postseason race. Again, Van Wagenenn was terrible at his job.
The 2020 season saw the pandemic, and in 2021 we had hoped things were different. Sadly, they were not. The Mets were in first by 4.0 games after a hot May, but they fell to a .500 month in June. Over the course of that month, the Mets saw their lead drop to 2.5 games. What was most troubling about that stretch was the team had opportunities to bury their NL East opponents, but they just couldn’t do it.
Many thought this year would be different. In many ways, it was. After all, the Mets will have an over .500 June for the first time since 2012. Yes, it has been a decade since the Mets were over .500 in the month of June.
That’s not to say the Mets had a great month. After all, so far, they are “only” 13-10 (.565) this month. Keep in mind, the Mets are so good we can now view a .565 winning percentage (92 win pace) as a June Swoon. Partially, that is the result of the Mets NL East lead dwindling from 10.5 games to 5.0 games.
This isn’t necessarily because the Mets were bad. After all, they were over .500 despite not having Jacob deGrom or Max Scherzer. They have also seen Jeff McNeil deal with hamstring issues, Brandon Nimmo deal with wrist issues, and James McCann out with a hand injury. Looking at everything, the Mets had to overcome a lot.
Fact is, they did. They withstood a tough schedule and a red hot Atlanta Braves team to maintain a 5.0 game lead. They played over .500 baseball. Now, their schedule for the rest of the season is going to be a lot easier allowing them to expand that lead and get on a roll heading to the postseason.
This team had a June Swoon, but because they are so good, it wasn’t nearly as bad as we have seen in the past. Despite the tough schedule and scheduling and the injuries, the Mets withstood the test. They proved their mettle. They showed how this is the best team in the National League, and they are going to win the 2022 World Series.
The New York Mets screwed up their DH position entering the season. Largely due to his contract, Robinson Cano was given the first crack, and he failed miserably. It led to his release, and notably, he’s now playing for the San Diego Padres Triple-A affiliate.
While the Mets were trying to get Cano going, Dominic Smith faltered. With the lack of at-bats, he never got going, and eventually, he was sent down to Triple-A.. He’s hitting now, but his doubters will use this to call him a Four-A player.
This has led to J.D. Davis “winning” the DH job, but not really. Since Smith was demoted, Davis has a 142 wRC+, but there are caveats there. That comes with a .423 BABIP, 1.11 GB/FB, softer than usual contact for him, and a 26.2% strikeout rate. This looks more like a hot streak than true talent level.
Per Baseball Savant, Davis’ Whiff% and K% is among the worst in baseball. He’s also been a poor base runner. Despite the exit velocities, he still only has two homers, and the Mets very noticeably did not start Davis at DH against the pitching rich Milwaukee Brewers. All told, it does seem the Mets are not sold with Davis as the permanent DH.
That could open the door for someone else, and noticeably, Mark Vientos is red-hot in Triple-A.
So far, Vientos has followed his professional career path. He was terrible over the first month of the season only to post a 1.050 OPS in May. He has followed that with a 1.264 OPS in June. This is no fluke. Vientos did the same exact thing in Double-A last season posting a 1.182 OPS and 1.008 OPS over the second and third months of the season last year.
Once Vientos turns it on, he’s locked in for the rest of the season. Right now, he is in one of his better stretches. He has a six game hitting streak with three multi-hit games. He has homered four times over his last three games, and he is hitting .285/.467/.846 over this stretch.
Mark Vientos has done it again!!!
Vientos has a home run in three consecutive games! This is his fourth home run in those three games!
📻 @TheScore1260 with @TrickyCNS7 pic.twitter.com/NYI6j2JgfL
— Syracuse Mets (@SyracuseMets) June 16, 2022
What you see with Vientos is as the season progresses, he proceeds to drive the ball more and get the ball in the air more. At the lower levels of the minors, he was a predominantly pull side hitter, but as time as progressed he has hit for power to all fields. He’s also developed much better pitch recognition skills, and he’s walking at his highest rate in full season affiliate minor league baseball.
That’s not to say there aren’t risks. Vientos still does strike out at a very high clip. So far this season, he’s at a career worst 31.6%, and there is justifiable concern that will worsen against Major League pitching. While he’s had a 1.103 OPS since May 1, he also has a 32.7% strike out rate. He has walked 9.9% of the time over this stretch.
Of course, Vientos does not have the same benefits as Major Leaguers do down in Triple-A. The Mets have more and better analytical data at their disposal with a coaching staff adept at disseminating the information. This has helped the Mets have the fourth best strikeout rate in the majors. That’s even with Davis having one of the worst.
Right now, the Mets are in an interesting spot. They don’t have any players they like to DH everyday. Their offense is taking a hit with Francisco Lindor‘s broken finger, and it is likely to take another hit with Starling Marte getting hit on the forearm. They seem to like Davis but not against good pitching. More than that, aside from Pete Alonso this is a team without another real power threat at the moment.
This could lead to the Mets looking to trade for a DH at the trade deadline, and Steve Cohen has said he will spend to do it. However, before it gets to that point, it would behoove the Mets to take a look at Vientos. He is flat out mashing in Syracuse, and if his minor league history is any indicator, he will mash the rest of the season.
Vientos is earning the call-up, is on the 40 man roster, and he fills a need for the Mets. It is time to give him a chance. If nothing else, the Mets will know just how much DH is a real trade deadline issue.