Musings
The minor leagues were designed to develop players to eventually help your team win. That not only comes in the form of players making it to the majors, but it is also trading those prospects to acquire Major Leaguers.
On the latter, the Mets made a series of moves designed to help them win their first World Series since 1986. Here is a review of the prospects traded.
Daniel Vogelbach for Colin Holderman
Holderman entered the season as MMN’s 30th ranked prospect. By the rankings, he would be the top prospect moved at the trade deadline.
Holderman proved his ranking was justified with a strong stint in the majors. He used his high velocity, high spin fastball and slider to truly impress. In 15 appearances, he pitched 17 2/3 innings going 4-0 with a 2.04 ERA, 1.019 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9, and a 9.2 K/9.
Tyler Naquin and Phillip Diehl for Hector Rodríguez and Jose Acuña
Acuña and Rodríguez were both prospects coming into their own in Single-A. As Michael Mayer of MMN noted, both are helium players who were going to make the end of the season too 30 rankings.
Acuña, 19, has made eight appearances this season between the Florida Complex League and with the St. Lucie Mets. He is 3-0 with a 3.16 ERA, 0.974 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9, and a 12.5 K/9. Acuña has a fastball which reaches the mid-90s with a high spin rate while working on promising secondary offerings.
Rodríguez, 18, has played 28 games between the Florida Complex League and with the St. Lucie Mets. He’s hitting .342/.378/.532 with four doubles, four triples, three homers, and 16 RBI. He is considered a plus runner who has played center predominantly and some second base. He has been successful in 12/15 stolen base attempts.
Darin Ruf for J.D. Davis, Carson Seymour, Thomas Szapucki, and Nick Zwack
Like with the aforementioned trade, pre-season and out-of-date prospect rankings likely would give a different impression of what the Mets traded.
Seymour, 23, and Zwack, 24, were part of last year’s draft, and they were going to be a part of the Mets top 30 rankings.
Seymour has a mid-90s fastball which tops off at 99 MPH that he combines that with a strong curvy slider. The change is a work in progress which has about a 15 MPH difference from his fastball.
Between St. Lucie and Brooklyn, he is 5-5 with a 2.76 ERA, 1.090 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9, and a 10.1 K/9.
Zwack is a spin king generating a lot of swings-and-misses. As a result, his low 90s fastball, low 80s slider, and change are quite effective.
Between St. Lucie and Brooklyn, he’s made 15 starts and three relief appearances. He’s 6-2 with a 2.36 ERA, 0.996 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9, and an 11.3 K/9.
Mets fans are somewhat familiar with Szapucki having seen him in two Major League appearances where he struggled.
Szapucki was once a highly touted prospect, but injuries and some control issues had seen him fall to the periphery of Mets top prospect rankings.
Still, he had the mid 90s fastball and curve with great spin that could miss bats. In fact, if he had enough innings to qualify, his 12.2 K/9 would’ve lead the International League.
Overall, Szapucki was 2-6 with a 3.38 ERA, 1.297 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9, and a 12.2 K/9 with Triple-A Syracuse.
Mychal Givens for Saúl González
González, 22, is a tall 6’7” pitcher with a low 90s fastball. Until this season, he has not made any impression with his five years with the organization.
That said, while repeating St. Lucie this season, González is 2-1 with one save, a 2.81 ERA, 1.208 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9, and a 10.2 K/9.
Overview
Overall, the Mets gave up approximately four top 30 level prospects from a farm system that appeared to be rebuilding into something quite strong and deep. This is a definite hit.
That hit is further felt with the Mets trade deadline incomplete. In fact, the bullpen is in a worse state than where it was when the trade deadline began.
The glass half full view is the Mets draft better than everyone allowing them to replace this talent more than other organizations can. Also, we’ve seen Steve Cohen will spend to overcome the lack of minor league depth.
It should also be mentioned the Mets roster is much better than it was entering the trade deadline. That counts for something.
That said, the collective was too high a cost for these players. It is eerily reminiscent of 2015 where the Mets acted all-in leaving the team short in the bullpen. That eventually came to haunt them in the World Series.
In the end, that’s what this is all about – winning the World Series. If the Mets win for the first time in 36 years, no one will care, and frankly, no one should care. However, if they don’t, Billy Eppler should be the subject of scorn and criticism.
The New York Mets thought their offense needing addressing at the trade deadline, and they set out to do it. Apparently, that was really their objective.
It’s undeniable Tyler Naquin, Darin Ruf, and Daniel Vogelbach make this a more potent offensive team. When you look at the high prospect cost, it appeared the Mets were not going to let prospects stand in the way of a World Series.
So, then, how does Billy Eppler and the Mets explain only coming away with Mychal Givens to bolster the bullpen at the trade deadline?
Keep in mind, Colin Holderman was having a better season than Givens. Yes, Givens is having a good season, and he has a good track record, but overall, Holderman was better leaving the Mets in a worse spot than when they entered the trade deadline.
This is where you wonder what Billy Eppler was thinking.
He traded Holderman because of a purported robust relief market. Then, on the trade deadline, he admits it wasn’t all that robust, and that the prices were too high.
This doesn’t pass the smell test.
The Philadelphia Phillies acquired David Robertson from the Chicago Cubs for prospect Ben Brown, a soon to be Rule 5 eligible pitcher who has not reached Double-A. Sure, he’s the Phillies seventh best prospect, but their system is one of the very worst in the game.
The Minnesota Twins made an intra-division trade to acquire Michael Fulmer from the Detroit Tigers. The cost was pitching prospect Sawyer Gipson-Long. He’s a 24 year old former sixth round pick with a 7.17 ERA in Double-A.
Baltimore Orioles All-Star closer Jorge López went to the Twins as well. Admittedly, it took quite a haul to get him. Really, he’s just about the only reliever who came at a steep cost.
Raisel Iglesias was basically a salary dump to the Atlanta Braves. The Mets could’ve thought outside the box to bring Noah Syndergaard back to recreate Game 5 of the NLDS. That Mickey Moniak led return was laughable.
Then again, so is the notion the Mets are going to the postseason with Tommy Hunter and Joely Rodriguez in their bullpen.
Now, it’s imperative Trevor May is healthy, effective, and has the stamina the rest of the way. Seth Lugo needs to further prove he’s all the way back. Adam Ottavino needs to continue this run.
Drew Smith and Tylor Megill may need a miracle to be 100% in time for the postseason, and Megill has to show he can pitch in the pen. David Peterson has shown he couldn’t, but now, he needs to be in that mix again.
That’s hope, and hope is not a plan. Whatever the case, that’s what the Mets are left with after the trade deadline. They just have to hope it’s enough.
That’s a dereliction of duty by Eppler, and that goes double when you consider his excuses in trading Holderman. What makes this all the worse is the relatively low prices at the deadline, and the Mets overpaying for bats.
In the end, we just have to hope the Mets have enough. If not, they’ll forever lament not going all-in as their trades indicated they were. They’ll be left wondering why they didn’t try to do all they could to win the World Series and why they gave up so much just to fall short.
We hear it all the time, especially from the New York Mets in the Wilpon Error (Era). When so-and-so comes off the IL, it’s like a trade deadline acquisition.
For the Wilpons, it was their way of excusing away having players in the lineup or rotation who had no business being there. For that matter, they might’ve had no business being in the majors.
This is typically where Mets fans cue up the old John Mayberry Jr. and Eric Campbell hitting in the middle of the lineup.
That’s really how we know how things are different under Steve Cohen. The replacements for Jacob deGrom were definitively not at deGrom’s level, but they were Major League caliber pitchers.
Yes, there were other injuries. That said, the Mets were still able to throw out a mix of Tylor Megill, David Peterson, and Trevor Williams as injury replacements.
Those are each credible MLB starters. Certainly, they can be a part of a regular MLB rotation. They proved as much this season.
That’s why deGrom coming back from the IL actually feels like he’s a trade deadline acquisition. He’s coming back as an upgrade and not as the Mets finally getting an MLB caliber player after weeks and months without one.
Assuredly, that feeling is magnified by deGrom returning on the actual day of the trade deadline.
If deGrom is deGrom, this Mets team got better at the deadline than any other team. That goes double when you consider what deGrom has done in the postseason.
After all, that’s what this is really about – it’s about winning the World Series. Sure, even after the day is done, this roster won’t be perfect. However, they will be built to win a World Series.
No team is topping deGrom and Max Scherzer atop the rotation. Some may think they’re close, but they’re not equals. The Mets have a massive advantage here.
After that, the Mets can roll out Chris Bassitt, Carlos Carrasco, and Taijuan Walker in the matter they see fit. They each could be a two in most rotations, even good ones, and with the Mets they slot in three through five.
On the trade deadline, Jacob deGrom returns to the rotation. When healthy, he’s the best pitcher in baseball. He makes the Mets rotation the best in baseball. Ultimately, he makes this Mets team the toughest to beat in the postseason.
On the eve of the MLB trade deadline, the New York Mets put J.D. Davis into the lineup as the DH. Even better, he was batting fifth.
Excuses were abound. It was a left-handed starter, and Daniel Vogelbach isn’t good against left-handed pitching (true). Patrick Corbin was on the mound, and Davis owns him.
That was once true. It’s not any more. It may be in the reverse now. Including this game, he’s 1-for-8 with two GIDP, three strikeouts, and a walk.
Not only is that against a pitcher he’s owned, but it’s also against someone who is probably the worst pitcher in baseball right now. What exactly does that say about Davis?
To answer the rhetorical question, it means Davis cannot play anymore. Not for a team looking to win a World Series.
Credit Buck Showalter for removing Davis for Vogelbach when the Washington Nationals went to their bullpen. That decision should be for good.
The Mets simply have to do better. Davis strikes out over 30% of the time. He hits the ball into the ground half the time. We can go on and on and delve deeper and deeper, but it’s best summed up by his bring lifted and benched.
The sad part is that’s all Davis can do. He’s horrendous in left and at third. Even if you want to overblow that one game saving pick at first, you’re not playing him over Pete Alonso.
Davis has lived far too long off the fluke 2019 season fueled by a juiced ball and an unsustainable BABIP. There’s too much at stake now, and there are players available.
Maybe there’s a Wilmer Flores reunion where the Mets can undo that massive mistake of non-tendering him and trading for Davis. There’s other smaller options, and of course, the chance at J.D. Martinez.
For that mater, the Mets can call-up Francisco Álvarez or Mark Vientos. Really, at this point, anything is better. Anything.
Davis had two at-bats in the game ahead of the deadline. He’s entitled to no more. Not upgrading from him is too egregious to even ponder.
Overall, Davis has to have played his last game as a Met. Once he’s gone, we can then focus on a complete roster ready to win a World Series.
With Edwin Díaz, the New York Mets have the best closer in baseball. As for the rest of the bullpen, well, that’s a question mark right now.
The expectation is the Mets will address this at the trade deadline. At first blush, there’s a lot which needs addressing. However, when you dig deeper, maybe the Mets are in much better shape than originally contemplated.
Lets start with the fact Major League Baseball has a 13 pitcher limit. After the five man rotation, which will be further bolstered by Jacob deGrom’s return, a team can carry seven relievers.
We know Díaz is the closer. As a result, the Mets need to fill six bullpen spots. Here’s how they look.
Adam Ottavino has been terrific with a 2.29 ERA, 176 ERA+, and a 10.5 K/9. He’s emerged as a primary set-up man. That’s five spots remaining.
Seth Lugo looks like a different reliever out of the break. He’s yet to allow a run in 4.2 innings. His run goes deeper than that. Since June 8, he has a 2.70 ERA. That’s four spots remaining.
Trevor Williams has been an important pitcher for the Mets all season. With a healthy rotation Williams will now stay in the bullpen.
As a reliever this season, he has a 1.50 ERA striking out 10.9 per nine, and he recorded his first career save this season. He can be a long man, and we’ve recently seen him get some late inning opportunities. That’s three spots remaining.
Trevor May will be coming off the IL. He’s a high leverage reliever who had a 3.38 ERA, 130 ERA+, and a 12.1 K/9 out of the bullpen from 2018 – 2021.
He looked strong during his rehab outings. If he’s back to form, the Mets bullpen gets exponentially better and deeper. That’s two spots remaining.
Now, this is where things get a little interfering. The Mets have a mix of arms in Tommy Hunter, Stephen Nogosek, and Yoan López, each of whom has performed well when given a chance.
However, that’s depth, and the Mets understandably aren’t going to rely on them come the postseason. Of course, with the innings they get from the starting rotation, the Mets may never really need anything beyond Diaz-May-Lugo-Ottavino.
Still, you build as strong a bullpen as you can. It’s possible the remaining two spots could bee filled internally.
Buck Showalter has said Tylor Megill will move to the bullpen when he comes off the IL. When he was healthy, Megill was dominant, and he could be a real weapon in the bullpen.
Of course, that also applied to Drew Smith. However, no one knows if Smith can return this year. That may go double with Megill.
As a result, ideally speaking, the Mets have two spots to fill. That could’ve been one, but Colin Holderman was traded for Daniel Vogelbach. As a result, it’s two spots.
With Joely Rodriguez being a disappointment, and with the needless obsession with LOOGYS even despite the three batter rule, the Mets will likely bend backwards to get a left-handed reliever. It’s dumb, but that’s what they’ll do.
That leaves the team finding one more big arm. Given his success in New York, and how he’s pitched this year, David Robertson is THE perfect fit. Of course, there are other options.
Then again, if the Mets get no one, they will still be fine.
As noted, the starting pitching goes deep. So far this year, they average 5.2 innings per start. Remember, that’s without one deGrom start and the team getting 30 starts outside their projected Opening Day rotation.
If we focus on Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt, Carlos Carrasco, and Taijuan Walker, they’re averaging almost six innings per start. Again, this is without deGrom.
Keep in mind, one of those five moves to the postseason bullpen. That takes one of the two needed slots. Maybe they also carry David Peterson even if he struggled in his two cracks at the short relief route.
Really, when you break it down, the Mets already can go with what they already have in October. That goes double if Megill and/or Smith return.
While very true, the Mets still should get Robertson. That’s a move that puts this bullpen in a different stratosphere and pushes them closer to being World Series favorites.
According to reports, it appears James McCann will be ready to return from the IL sooner than expected. That’s great news for a team getting nothing offensively from Tomás Nido and really nothing at all from Patrick Mazeika.
McCann’s return probably takes the Mets out of the Willson Contreras hunt. With this being a pitching first team and his framing, that’s not a bad thing.
However, that doesn’t mean the Mets should completely overlook upgrading the catcher position. On that point, it appears Francisco Álvarez is getting closer and closer.
When first called up to Triple-A, Álvarez struggled. Over his first eight games, he was batting .087/.324/.130. What should stand out there is the .324 OBP.
That was a sign he wasn’t being dominated. In fact, it was just the hits weren’t coming. He was not yet driving the ball. However, he was in the at-bat, and even while struggling and adapting, he was finding ways on base.
From there, he went to the MLB Future’s Game in Los Angeles during the All-Star Break. Álvarez was 0-for-1 with a walk, but he came back to Syracuse a different player.
Since he returned, Álvarez is 5-for-21 with two doubles, two homers, and eight RBI. Astoundingly, he’s walked eight times. That’s a .238/.448/.639 batting line.
Notably, he continues getting on base. In fact, he’s drawn a walk in four straight games and seven of his last eight games. Of those seven games, five of them were multi-walk games.
Now, we see the power coming. There’s also some clutch there with a grand slam and walk-off homer.
"There's your magic moment in Triple-A for Francisco Álvarez!"
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) July 29, 2022
The @Mets' — and baseball's — top prospect ends the game with a long walk-off homer for the @SyracuseMets. pic.twitter.com/NiZwuqExzY
Álvarez now has a three game hitting streak, and he has a hit in five of the six games after the Future’s Game. In five of those six, he’s reached base multiple times.
While this is a multi-layered approach and analysis, in Álvarez, we see a player getting closer and closer to being Major League ready. With every walk and extra base hit, he gets closer to Queens.
In the end, McCann can be healthy. Nido can be strong behind the plate. However, when Álvarez is ready, nothing is going to stop him from getting to the majors. Increasingly, it looks like that’ll happen this year.
The New York Mets struck a deal to acquire OF Tyler Naquin and LHP Phillip Diehl from the Cinnanati Reds for prospects RHP Jose Acuña and center field prospect Hector Rodríguez. From a Mets perspective, the move really didn’t make any sense for the team.
Let’s get the easy one out of the way. Diehl has not been all the good in his career, and that may be kind. His strikeout rates from the minors has not translated to the majors, but his control issues have. If this is the Mets answer for left-handed reliever, the Mets have completely failed on that front. Chances are, he goes to the minors and stays there.
As for Naquin, over his career, he is a good bat against right-handed pitching, and he has real speed on the basepaths. This season he has a 117 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and for his career, he has a 111. Between him and the Daniel Vogelbach acquisition, you see the Mets are attempting to address the team’s offense against right-handed pitching.
On that front, while the Mets have one of the best offenses on the season with a 112 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, they have only had a 101 wRC+ since June 1. Another note here is the Mets only have 67 homers belying a real power outage in the lineup. On that front, you understand Naquin who has a .472 SLG this season against right-handed pitching.
However, is has to be noted here Mark Canha has actually been a better hitter against right-handed pitching. This season, Canha has a 138 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and he has a 122 for his career. While he has zero power left, sitting him to play Naquin doesn’t make all the much sense. That goes double when you consider Naquin is a very poor outfielder.
While Naquin is fast, he has always been bad in the outfield. This year, he has a -1 OAA, and for his career he has a -25 OAA in the outfield. This is not a late inning replacement by any means.
Yes, he does hit better than Travis Jankowski, but in terms of roster construction, Jankowski offered more to this team. While Naquin has a 28.0 ft/sec sprint speed, Jankowski has a 29.0 ft/sec sprint speed. Whereas Naquin has historically been a very poor base stealer, Jankowski has been a very good one.
Another factor here is Buck Showalter has liked lifting Canha for Jankowski for late inning defense or to pinch run. In his career, Jankowski has been a very good fielder capable of playing all three defensive positions. As noted, Naquin is a horrible fielder and should actually be lifted late in games.
Seeing all of this, you have to question what is the end game here? Did the Mets look at Canha and not trust he can keep up his offensive production? You can understand that because his hard hit rates are very low, and that .317 BABIP is due for a course correction. If that is the case, Canha didn’t last a year before the Mets admitted they needed to upgrade over him making his signing a mistake (even if he has a half season worth of good production).
If it was to have Naquin sit on the bench, well, he’s been an awful pinch hitter in his career. In his 65 attempts, he is hitting just .196/.292/.286.
Again, it’s just a bizarre move. Either, you want him to take over for Canha, who is hitting better against right-handed pitching, or you want him to be a reserve where he is a poor pinch hitter, doesn’t steal bases, and plays bad defense.
Given all that, it would seem a mistake to give up Acuña and Rodríguez. These are two very promising prospects who were already considered top 30 prospects in this system. That’s a high cost to pay for an outfielder who does not really have a role on this team.
Hopefully, the Mets are not done, and there are still moves to be made where eventually this move will make sense. It’s doubtful, but the Mets do have five days to make good on this. If they don’t, they got rid of two promising and rising prospects to not really improve the team.
From a New York Mets perspective, the first installment of the 2022 Subway Series was a success. After all, they completed a sweep.
Really, there was a lot of good. Max Scherzer was every bit the ace. Taijuan Walker showed he can be a big game pitcher. Edwin Dįaz had a four out save.
Pete Alonso’s hit hitting continued. Francisco Lindor’s bat reawoken. Starling Marte had a walk-off hit. Again, there was a lot of good in these two games.
None of these moments were more important than Seth Lugo’s appearance.
It’s no secret the Mets need middle relief help. That was all the more apparent when David Peterson allowed a game tying two run homer to Gleyber Torres in the eighth.
Of course, Buck Showalter went to Peterson partially because Joely Rodriguez has not been effective this season. The other reason is the Mets had two innings to figure out.
In the previous game, both Díaz and Adam Ottavino pitched over an inning. In all likelihood, neither were available for this game. That goes double for Ottavino.
If not them, then who? That’s an all the more difficult question in the aftermath of the Mets trading Colin Holderman for Daniel Vogelbach.
And yes, Lugo has been part of the problem. On-and-off the field has been mentally tasking for him. There’s the injuries, a sick child, a pregnant wife, and then the missed birth of his second born child.
In some ways, it’s no wonder we hadn’t seen the real Lugo yet. As a result, we see a pitcher with a career worst year out of the pen.
He has a 4.01 FIP and 2.83 K/BB with his strikeouts down to an 8.3 K/9. He has a 9.64 ERA on no rest. He hasn’t been nearly as effective in a second inning of work.
This played a part in Peterson over Lugo to start the inning. Now, if this was the Lugo of old, he’s out there for the six inning save. Well, after the Peterson blown save, we got to see the Lugo of old:
Lugo’s curve embarrassed and struck out Josh Donaldson. It was the first out of the five Lugo recorded en route to his second win of the season.
Lugo was excellent.
After getting two quick outs in the eighth, he would face Aaron Judge with the go-ahead run on first. He would get Judge to ground out to end the inning and the rally.
This is what Lugo once was not long ago. He was dominant for more than an inning golf work. He took control of the game. Lugo chalked it up to adrenaline.
If that’s all he needed, he needs to make sure he has it in his next outing and each of the ensuing ones. If a full house ramped up with energy brought out the best in Lugo, he’s ready and will be phenomenal for October.
It wasn’t just this outing. This is his second one after the All-Star Break. That’s 3 1/3 scoreless. Seeing Lugo out there, there’s a lot more to come.
If so, that’s one fewer reliever the Mets need at the deadline. If so, the Mets could have a lights out bullpen. That goes double with Trevor May returning from the IL.
For at least one moment, Lugo was Lugo, and the Mets won. We’ll see the if he is his next time on the mound. Odds are, Lugo will be great again, and if so, this Mets team is on a whole other level. Just ask the Yankees.
For some reason , bizarre things just seem to happen to the New York Mets when they play the New York Yankees. The Mets usually lose as a result.
Choose your moment of infamy. Todd Zeile’s would be homer off Andy Pettitte landing on top of the left field wall leading to Derek Jeter nailing Timo Pérez at the plate.
Of course, the moment which will forever haunt us all is the Luis Castillo dropped pop up. Instead of a Mets win, they lose as Mark Teixeira got on his horse (pun intended) and scored from first to win the game.
For a moment, it seemed like the Mets were going to have another one of those awful gut wrenching moments against the Yankees.
With the Mets up 6-3, a runner on first, and one out, Aaron Judge hit a tapper back to Edwin Díaz. What could’ve been a game ending double play looked like another game just horrifically thrown away.
Edwin Díaz, -27mph Fastball. 😂 pic.twitter.com/jq3G6yugwu
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 27, 2022
There are no words for how bad that was. In that moment, you do have a slight pause and concern Díaz will throw it into center, but you never imagine he just won’t throw it at all.
You can already see the narratives emerging. The Mets are reeling, and the Yankees would be the ones who effectively ended their season. The Mets were again going to give away the division to the Atlanta Braves.
Diaz is not a big time closer who cannot handle the pressure situations or New York. He cannot handle the four out saves, and if the Mets even get to October, he will melt down there. Really, this was going to be as insufferable a loss as the Mets could possibly have.
Of course, there would be Mets fans concerns and panic coupled with Yankees fans gloating to make it all the worse. Thankfully, that moment was just a moment we can all laugh about now.
Instead of Anthony Rizzo hitting that game tying three run homer we all expected, he struck out. Then, Gleyber Torres struck out to end the game. Essentially, Diaz did what great closers do – they shake it off and get the next batter.
Maybe this is a sign things are different this year. Certainly, it is a sign Diaz is different, and maybe these two things go hand-in-hand. Whatever the case, we don’t have another Luis Castillo moment, and for that, we as Mets fans can be eternally grateful.
When you look at the New York Mets, the obvious area to address for offense is catcher. After all, Tomas Nido has a 47 wRC+, and Patrick Mazeika has a 39. That’s just indefensibly bad offensive production.
Now, this is the obvious spot where we say the Mets should call-up Francisco Alvarez. With Alvarez hitting a double and grand slam in consecutive games, we are not at that point yet. After all, he is hitting .125/.318/.281 over 10 games. You can argue that will probably translate better than what they are getting now, but with Alvarez, it is more than just what he can give you now.
Surveying the trade market, it would seem Willson Contreras and his career best 140 wRC+ would be a perfect fit. In actuality, this would be a mistake for the Mets.
Ultimately, this is a team built on its pitching. A large part of that has been the work Nido has done behind the plate.
Nido has been a terrific framer. In fact, as per Baseball Savant, he is tied as for 14th best among framers. He’s a good week from moving up to the top 10. While he doesn’t rate nearly as high, he does have impressive pop times. He is a defensive wizard back there, and he’s helping the Mets pitching staff.
This season, the Mets staff have the sixth best ERA (3.60) and FIP (3.65) and the best K/9 (9.65). They’re also walking few batters with their 2.86 BB/9 ranking seventh. The pitching staff is dominant, and more than anything else, that is why the Mets are in first place.
Look at it another way, this team cannot hit their way out of a paper bag right now. Still, they’re 9-7 over their last 16. The biggest reason is the pitching. Since Max Scherzer has come all the IL, the starting rotation has a 1.70 ERA, which is easily the best in the majors. This right here is the Mets strength, and it’s going to be more of a strength when Jacob deGrom returns from the IL.
This is also before you see Edwin Diaz is finally comfortable and dominating. He’s easily the best closer in baseball right now.
Contreras would only serve to diminish that.
Contreras has one of the worst called strike rates in the majors. Sure, part of that could be the Chicago Cubs pitching staff, and overall, Contreras has good framing numbers. However, as noted by the strike rate, that is deceiving. Maybe things will be better with the Mets, maybe not. Given what’s at stake, it’s too big of a risk to take.
If Contreras doesn’t jive with the Mets pitchers, that’s it. This team’s strength has taken a massive hit. Now, you have another Wilson Ramos situation where you’re just relying on him to hit. That’s a dicey proposition.
For his career, Contreras is a 127 wRC+ at Wrigley and a 108 on the road. That’s carried into this year where he is a 150 wRC+ at home and a 127 on the road. Again, he is far better at home, and an important note here, while it’s only a 15 game sample size, he hits .180/.263/.260 at Citi Field.
Ultimately, even if Ramos is at his career worst at the plate, he’s a significant upgrade over what the Mets already have offensively. However, catcher is a defensive position above all else. It is about the roughly 40 plate appearances you are behind the plate over the four you get yourself. Looking at it that way, what Nido is doing is far more valuable.
The Mets can improve their offense by addressing other areas. Even with Daniel Vogelbach, they can improve at DH. They can improve at third and left. Maybe if Alvarez is ready, they can improve there. What they can’t do right now is gamble on Contreras. That is a move that can hurt them more than it can help them.