Musings

Mets Need To Avoid JD Martinez

Reports are Steve Cohen and the New York Mets believe they still need to add a bat to this roster. In reality, they are quite right in that assessment. They may not be entirely correct in their pursuit.

According to those reports, the Mets are pursuing Michael Conforto and JD Martinez. As previously explained, Conforto would be a very good fit for the Mets roster, and really, it would be a good spot for Conforto to return to familiar surroundings to rebuild his value.

When it comes to Martinez, the Mets should avoid him. He is a very poor fit for this team, and in reality, he may not have anything left.

Martinez will be 35 next season. His sprint speed is 26.1 ft/sec. He didn’t play a single inning in the outfield last season. He has never played first base. The long story short is he’s only a DH at this point in his career. As a result, his ability to provide any value to his team will solely be wrapped up in his ability to hit.

That can be problematic.

Martinez was productive in 2022 with a 117 OPS+ and 119 wRC+. That mark ranked him as the seventh best DH in all of baseball. For a Mets team had the worst DH production for most of the 2022 season that would be an upgrade. However, it is probably not an upgrade from what is here already.

Last season, Daniel Vogelbach had a 150 wRC+ against right-handed pitching and has a 127 mark for his career. Looking towards 2023, he could share that role with one of Francisco Álvarez, Mark Canha, and/or Eduardo Escobar (133 wRC+ against left-handed pitching in 2022). All three of those players provide the ability to play in the field as needed.

Last season, Martinez had a 175 wRC+ against left-handed pitching and a 103 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Therein lies part of the problem.

If you sign Martinez, you are signing him to DH everyday. However, we see while he kills left-handed pitching, he is not hitting right-handed pitching anymore. Considering the vast majority of Major League pitchers are right-handed, that is a problem. That is also the tip of the iceberg.

Looking over at Baseball Savant, Martinez is in decline like you would expect for a 35 year old baseball player. His exit velocities and launch angles were down. He struck out slightly more and his walks have dipped (both not to the point of any real concern). As a result, his hard hit rates are down as well. Digging deeper, he’s starting to struggle hitting the fastball with his xBA in a steep decline from 2017.

Again, this is what you get from a 35 year old player. That is even if you want to point out much of the regression in his production was related to back issues. Certainly, people will point to Martinez having a bad second half as evidence that the bat will be there now that Martinez has had an offseason to recuperate

If you recall, this is a game the Mets played in 2008 with Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez was 36 with back issues, and he played like a 36 year old with back issues. Maybe Martinez is different, but when you’re a win-now team spending upwards of $400 million, this is not the risk you want to take.

For the Mets, their options should be sign Conforto, stand pat, or do something else. The answer is not J.D. Martinez, and really, they should avoid him at all costs. .

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Carlos Correa Shows Steve Cohen Good For Baseball

If you blinked, you missed reports Carlos Correa was possibly going to the New York Mets. It would have simply been a stunning move for a franchise which already signed Justin Verlander and Brandon Nimmo to huge money as the Mets have been charging towards the $400 million payroll mark.

There was a report from Dan Hayes of The Athtletic. We also saw Steve Cohen out there liking tweets about the team going out and signing Correa. Normally, this would be unbelievable, but there was now belief this could actually happen:

Well, as we found out, it actually wasn’t to be. Correa went to the San Francisco Giants on a 13 year $350 million deal. For Correa, it was probably the better move, and as we know, the Giants had a far more desperate need for Correa than the Mets.

Certainly, it is possible Scott Boras was using the Mets for leverage. It’s also possible Cohen was having a little fun on Twitter.

However, one thing remains ostensibly clear – the New York Mets are not done looking for ways to improve the team. That means even if they have to continue to raise their payroll well above and beyond what anyone believes could be possible for a professional sports franchise.

Make no mistake, this is very good for baseball. Owners going out there and signing players to vastly improve their teams can only be viewed as good for the sport. We should actively celebrate and encourage teams trying to win.

Spending money on players is not a bad thing. Winning is not a bad thing. Believing those things are bad things is incredibly stupid.

Seriously, go as a New York Yankees fan if they regret winning the 2009 World Series after the team went out and signed Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia, and A.J. Burnett and trading for Nick Swisher. Go ask Pittsburgh Pirates fans what is is like to see their team never signing anyone of significance and watching beloved players just leave the franchise without winning anything.

As Mets fans, we know exactly what this is all like. We’ve been desperate for ownership to actually invest in winning. We were tired of the cheap moves. We wanted real action. After all, we watched it happen across town for over 20 years.

In the end, actively trying to win is good for the Mets, and it is good for baseball. It is as fan friendly as it gets, and keeping your fans happy is the best way to maintain and grow interest in the sport. Arguing otherwise is just plain stupid, and likely, it is sour grapes.

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David Peterson Should Open 2023 Season In Rotation

Right now, the New York Mets are rumored to be listening to offers for Carlos Carrasco. This makes sense because the Mets should listen to offers on all of their players and make deals if it improves the team. That should go without saying.

There is also the matter of clearing up payroll to permit the Mets to address their bullpen, outfield depth, and find a better solution than Daniel Vogelbach and Darin Ruf at DH. Mostly, the Mets would be better served by having David Peterson in the rotation.

Peterson, 27, was the Mets 2017 first round pick (20th overall) out of the University of Oregon. At his age, this is exactly the time you would be expecting his career to take off, but frankly, to date, it has not gotten started. There are several reasons why that has happened.

After a promising 2020 rookie year in the pandemic shortened season, he predictably struggled in 2021 before succumbing to a shoulder injury. This would have the Mets under Steve Cohen bypass him as they looked to build an elite rotation designed to win the World Series. Despite that, Peterson would be needed, and he would have his moments.

Overall, as a starter, Peterson was 6-5 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.341 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9, and a 10.9 K/9. He would also average 4.2 innings per start. The caveat there was in two September starts, he threw four innings total over two horrific starts. This came at a time the Mets were working to move him to the bullpen for the postseason. Without those two starts, he averaged 5+ innings per start.

No, these aren’t earth shattering numbers, and yes, the walks/control were an issue. However, there are some caveats with these numbers. He was bounced back-and-forth from the rotation and bullpen AND between the majors and Triple-A. That takes its toll on a player. Notably, Peterson did perform better in the majors than in Triple-A.

Another factor is Peterson did not get to really work with Jeremy Hefner the way the rest of the Mets pitching staff did. Notably, we did see Hefner help hone pitchers mechanics and work on their control. This was most notable with the work Hefner did with Edwin Díaz to get him to repeat his landing spot on the mound. As a result, we not only saw the best we’ve seen from the closer, but we also saw Díaz go from a 4.9 BB/9 in 2020 to a 2.6 last season.

Arguably, if Peterson is going to take that next step, he is going to need Major League coaching, be surrounded by pitchers like Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander for a full season, and really, he is going to need a chance.

Looking at the data, he is worth that chance. Per Baseball Savant, Peterson generates excellent extension, and he has a very good whiff%. That is shown with Peterson striking out 27.8% of the batters he faced last season, which is excellent. Part of the reason for that is despite lower fastball velocity and spin (which should be expected with a sinker) is Peterson’s excellent slider numbers.

It is genuinely a strikeout pitch. Batters whiffed 47.9% of the time against the pitch. In and of itself, it is worth investing in that pitch to see what more the Mets could be getting out of Peterson. That slider is a hidden gem on this Mets staff, and they need to see it in the majors instead of Triple-A.

Put another way, Peterson still has a lot of upside. In many ways, he is still raw and needs more coaching and opportunities. For an older Mets rotation, they actually need Peterson’s upside. They need the younger starter who can surprise and have a good year. Somehow, some way, the Mets just need to get Peterson into the rotation and watch him take that next step because that next step could help the Mets win the World Series.

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Michael Conforto Should Be Next

Go back to 2015. Michael Conforto was a superstar in the making, and Brandon Nimmo seemed like the disappointing prospect. Seven years later everything is different.

Nimmo received the largest contract the Mets ever handed out to a homegrown player, and Conforto is looking for work. As soon as three seasons ago, that seemed completely implausible.

In the 2020 COVID impacted season, Conforto played at an MVP level. It was a level we knew he was capable of playing, and it seemed like his career was just going to take off. It didn’t as he would suffer an injury plagued 2021 season greatly impacting his production.

After rejecting the qualifying offer, he became a free agent. However, he would go unsigned as Conforto would injure his shoulder in the offseason. While rumors surfaced he may sign somewhere, he would sit out the season waiting for this offseason where he could attempt to cash in on a weaker free agent outfield market.

There was a report from Mike Puma of the New York Post Conforto was not looking to return to the Mets because ” the outfielder might want an escape from the narrative that he erred last offseason in rejecting the qualifying offer from the club.” That would be stupid on his part, and as we see with the Mets spending, they may be able to entice him to return.

Better put, the Mets need to entice him to return.

In September and the Wild Card Series, one thing which was readily clear was the Mets had a power outage, and it was impacting their ability to score runs. When you face better pitching, mounting those rallies becomes increasingly difficult, and at some point, you just need a guy who is going to put it in the seats.

Looking at the roster last season, Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor were the only two who could consistently do that all season. Eduardo Escobar did hit 20 homers, but he hit eight of those in September, and it became increasingly clear he was really just a platoon option.

With Escobar, the Mets do seem to have Brett Baty ready or near ready to take over for him at third. We should eventually see Francisco Álvarez become the primary catcher. And yet, it does seem the Mets are one power bat short. That goes double with the DH situation and the inability to truly rely on rookies who are questionable to make the Major League roster.

Surveying the Mets roster, it would seem the biggest upgrade possibility would be in left field. Mark Canha did a good job there in 2022, but there remain question marks for him in 2023.

Canha’s defense was bad but not unplayable -1 OAA. His launch angle took a nose dive as did his barrel rates. With his value mostly wrapped in his OBP, it was at least concerning that his walk rate took a considerable step backwards. Again, this is a player in decline. He has value to the roster, but the more you look at him, it does not seem as if he is well suited to be the Mets everyday left fielder.

That’s not necessarily to say it’s Conforto. That said, he was a good fielder the last time he played, and assuming he’s stayed in shape, he promises to be one next season. He also has much more power than Canha, and really, if we want to look towards DH, Daniel Vogelbach. Another point there is Conforto has been able to hit left-handed pitching whereas Vogelbach is worse than a pitcher against lefties.

There’s the other point Conforto can handle New York, and we have seen him deliver in big moments here. When you consider the rules eliminating the shift, he should be even more potent at the plate than he was when he last played. Overall, Conforto should have some big hits in his bat, and the Mets need those big hits. The more you think about it, the more you realize Conforto needs to return to the Mets.

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Mets Complete Rotation Perfectly With Koudai Senga

Looking at the New York Mets rotation, it wasn’t just that it felt they needed another starter. They really needed to add a starter with upside.

Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are both Hall of Famers still pitching like aces. However, they are still towards the end of their careers.

Josè Quintana is a guy who takes it every fifth day and gives you five innings. We saw Carlos Carrasco has become a bit of a Jekyll/Hyde routine between the age and coming back from all the injuries.

Arguably, the Mets would have been fine with one of Tylor Megill or David Peterson. However, the team needs to manufacture pitching depth, and a team who is all-in on winning the World Series needed better.

Ideally, they needed a pitcher who has real upside. Someone who could give them something they didn’t quite have. Well, the Mets found the right guy with Koudai Senga.

Senga signed with the Mets partially because he said he wanted to win now. He’s also well versed in analytics and wants a team who can help him further understand and grow. Mostly, he signed with the Mets because they are now THE destination team in Major League Baseball.

The Mets wanted Senga because he’s been a great pitcher with great stuff. He can hit 102 MPH on the gun and has a pitched dubbed the ghost forkball.

Senga, 29, pitched last season foe the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks of the Japan Pacific League. Over 22 starts, he pitched 144.0 innings (6.2 innings per start). He was 11-6 with a 1.94 RRA, 1.056 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, and a 9.8 K/9.

He completely dominated the Japanese Leagues. He’s one of their best pitchers ever, and we saw a record setting pitcher there.

If you want a downside, people can and will point you to the theory Japanese pitchers don’t translate well to the majors. Of course, that’s complete nonsense.

Sure, a pitcher like Daisuke Matsuzaka was disappointing. There are other examples including the times when the Mets grabbed pitchers like Satoru Komiyama and dubbed him and his ERA always hovering around 4.00 as the Japanese Greg Maddux.

As an aside, how did the Wilpons ever get away with stuff like that.

While the disappointments have been highlighted and discussed ad nauseum, there have been success stories. Hideo Nomo was a good Major League, a Rookie of the Year, an All-Star, and threw to no-hitters. Masahiro Tanaka was a big game pitcher for the New York Yankees.

Japanese pitchers can and will succeed in the majors. There’s no reason to believe with the Mets infrastructure and pitching coach like Jeremy Hefner that Senga won’t succeed.

The Mets needed a pitcher like Senga to take them to the next level. They got him, and now, their chances of winning the World Series have increased exponentially.

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Brandon Nimmo Can Surpass David Wright As Mets Best Position Player

After David Wright signed his seven year $122 million contract, we knew he was going to re-write the New York Mets record books, and he did. If not for spinal stenosis, he would have put all the records well out of reach. Unfortunately, he did get injured, and as a result, he did put the records in play.

Other than Tim Healey of Newsday jokingly referring to Nimmo putting the hit by pitch record completely out of reach, we have not heard the same of Brandon Nimmo when he signed his eight year $162 million contract extension. However, that is very much in play.

Remember, Nimmo is now in his prime coming off a career year (in terms of WAR), and now, he has eight years to be able to accumulate stats. Here are the Mets records and how far Nimmo trails:

Category Holder Total Trails
WAR Wright 49.2 32
GP Kranepool 1853 1245
Runs Wright 949 614
Hits Wright 1777 1247
Doubles Wright 390 284
Triples Reyes 113 90
HR Strawberry 252 189
RBI Wright 970 757
BB Wright 762 439
SB Reyes 408 385
HBP Nimmo 57 –

Nimmo trails by a good number in most of these categories, but again, he has eight years to make up the difference. Here is what Nimmo would have to average over his eight seasons to go atop the leader-board in each of the respective categories:

Category Trails Average Career High
WAR 32 4 5.1
GP 1245 156 151
Runs 614 77 102
Hits 1247 156 159
Doubles 284 36 30
Triples 90 12 8
HR 189 24 17
RBI 757 95 64
BB 439 55 80
SB 385 48 9
HBP – – 22

Well, right off the bat, we can say Jose Reyes‘ team records will remain in tact. While both are lead-off hitters, they are completely different ones. As a result, while Nimmo can steal you a base, and he did lead the league in triples this past season, he’s simply never catching Reyes even if we may eventually view Nimmo as the best lead-off hitter in team history.

We can come close to saying Ed Kranepool‘s one remaining team record will remain in tact. With his injury history, it’s safe to say there is just no way we can reasonably expect Nimmo to play 156 games per season. If he plays 151 like he did this past season, that is a win.

Finally, we can be assured Nimmo will not threat Strawberry. Certainly, Pete Alonso may eventually destroy that record, but he is going to have to sign his own extension in the future to do that.

While the aforementioned Mets legends are safe, Wright’s position atop the leader-boards is a little tenuous. On the bright side for Wright, Nimmo shouldn’t be in a position to surpass him in RBI. It also looks like Wright’s doubles lead may be safe but is far from secure.

One thing to remember is going forward Major League Baseball has banned this shift. That creates chances for more hits, and Nimmo should be one of many beneficiaries of this change. As a result, we may seem him make a real run at Wright’s hits lead. With Nimmo’s ability to draw walks, he should claim that record as well, and with all of his times on base, Wright’s runs scored record may also fall.

In a circuitous way, that brings us to WAR, or put another way Wright’s standing as the best position player in Mets history. When Nimmo has played at least 140 games in a season he has surpassed that 4.0 WAR mark. The caveat is he’s only done that twice in his career. However, Nimmo will be a beneficiary of the Mets investments in player health, which is something we saw play out with him playing 151 games this past season.

Nimmo averaging a 4.0 WAR over the next eight seasons is very much in play. With some big seasons early in this contract, he may very well surpass Wright. Of course, who will be seen as the best position player in Mets history is usually more subjective than objective. For example, Wright is universally seen as being a better Met than Strawberry even though Strawberry averaged a higher WAR, was a better higher (higher wRC+), and has a World Series ring partially the result of Strawberry’s postseason success.

The key for Nimmo is health. That is something that eluded him most of his career, and health is the reason why many of Wright’s records are even in reach. In the end, it will be great to see Nimmo try to surpass Wright in all of these categories, and if he does that’s a good thing because it will mean success for him and the team.

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Brandon Nimmo Could Have Mets Career Like None Other

Once again, give Steve Cohen credit. The team had no other choice but to sign Brandon Nimmo, and they did it.

With Nimmo now having an eight year $162 million deal, it’s relatively assured he will spend his entire career with the New York Mets. That is not something that happens with the Mets.

Essentially, the list of players who spent their entire careers with the Mets is Ed Kranepool and David Wright. They couldn’t have had more disparate careers.

Kranepool was a 17 year old local boy brought up to the original Mets team. He never panned out, but the weak hitting first baseman played 18 years with the team winning the 1969 World Series.

Kranepool was debating retiring after 1979, but the Mets would make sure of it releasing him prior to his even having an opportunity to retire. He filed free agent papers, but when no one came around, his career was over.

Wright grew up a Mets fan and would one day become captain of the team. If not for spinal stenosis, he’s a sure fire Hall of Famer setting records no Mets player would ever touch. For all we know, the Mets win the World Series in 2015 or another season.

Kranepool was a semi-regular player at best who set records mostly because there were no records before him. Wright was a great player whose career was cut short.

That brings us to Nimmo.

Never before in Mets history have we seen a homegrown lifelong Met retire on his own terms. Kranepool was released, and Wright had spinal stenosis.

Nimmo gets that chance. He could be the one Mets player who finishes his career as wants. He also has a chance to create his own Mets legacy.

Nimmo could be the captain. With the way Cohen is spending, he could have at least one World Series ring. He even has the chance to become the best position player in team history.

Before we get there, he has to stay healthy. Wright couldn’t. He also needs to remain productive. Kranepool couldn’t.

All-in-all, this promises to be a very unique Mets career. Kranepool had M. Donald Grant, and Wright had the Wilpons. Nimmo has Cohen.

This means Nimmo will have a chance for more postseasons than perhaps the two of them combined. With that comes chances for glory.

Every angle you look, this is a unique situation for Nimmo. Mets players don’t get to finish their careers with the team. They don’t have owners and front offices solely dedicated to winning.

Nimmo has that. That really does put Nimmo in a position to be one of the greatest Mets ever. Perhaps, he will be second only to Tom Seaver.

His name will be all over the record books, and he’s assured of passing Wright in multiple categories. He should have the most World Series rings (one ties him for the lead). He could be captain or even see his number retired.

We thought and wanted this for so many Mets. The stars aligned to make Nimmo the guy. Congrats to him, and let’s see how great this all becomes.

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José Quintana Perfect Addition To Mets Rotation

One of the challenges the New York Mets have this offseason is rebuilding their rotation to match the one they had which carried them to 101 wins in 2021. That was going to be a challenge with the Mets needing to address four-fifths of the rotation; well, three-fifths after they picked up Carlos Carrasco‘s option.

The rotation was never really going to look the same, but it had to be as good. Arguably, it had to be better with the Mets losing in the Wild Card Series despite their top three starters lined up. The team did take a bit of a step back losing Jacob deGrom, but they responded quickly and perfectly by adding Justin Verlander.

You can say the same about the team signing José Quintana after Taijuan Walker signed with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Walker was a good and surprisingly durable pitcher for the Mets over the past two seasons. He showed flashes of being a top of the rotation starter, but he did have his struggles. Ultimately, he was a number three starter who pitched at the back end of the rotation. He was a very good Met, and the Mets will certainly miss him.

However, the team did rebound with Quintana. Keep in mind with the age of Max Scherzer, Verlander, and Carrasco, Quintana is “only” going to be 34 next season. He has pitched in the majors for 11 years, and the only time he did not make at least 22 starts was 2020 – 2021. One year was the pandemic (he did have an injury that season), and the other he dealt with shoulder issues.

Whatever concerns you may have after that two year stretch were abated when Quintana made 32 starts last season. The downside was he only pitched 165.2 innings meaning he averaged only five innings per start.

Part of that could be related to his coming back from two injury plagued years. He was in the bullpen in 2021, and he was moved back to the rotation. That does require some ease. Another issue is the Pirates are not very analytically advanced limiting their ability to get the most from their starters.

To a certain extent, we saw that play out when Quintana went to the St. Louis Cardinals at the trade deadline. Yes, he only averaged five innings per start, but that was skewed by a few short outings. To be fair, those happened.

Putting all of that aside for a moment, that does not change the fact Quintana took the ball every fifth day. Much like he has the vast majority of his career, he promises to do the same next season. That gives the Mets some certainty with an older rotation as they also seek to manufacture pitching depth this offseason.

With respect to the stuff, well, Quintana doesn’t wow you in any sense. He doesn’t have velocity or great spin. What he does have is the ability to locate and generate weak contact. He also generates a high number of ground balls. Even without the shift, he should be aided by having Francisco Lindor and one of Jeff McNeil or Luis Guillorme up the middle.

In the end, Quintana’s skill-set is enhanced by the defense behind him. The Mets infielders will make him seem a better pitcher, and maybe then, he can go a little deeper into games. Even if he doesn’t, he is going to take the ball every fifth day and give the Mets five solid innings. There is immense value in that, especially for an older rotation, and the Mets will benefit greatly from having signed Quintana.

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Brooks Raley Senseless Acquisition

The New York Mets acquired Brooks Raley from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for left-handed pitching prospect Keyshawn Askew. It’s the type of trade where you really have to wonder what the Mets are doing.

First and foremost, you never trade with the Rays. That goes double when it comes to pitching. They always come up on top.

On that front, the Mets have the GM who grossly overpaid for Tyler Naquin and Darin Ruf at the trade deadline. He also couldn’t build a winner with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani.

There may be a GM out there who will get the better of the Rays, but Billy Eppler is just about the least likely candidate. On the subject of Eppler, Naquin, and Ruf, Eppler has been far too cavalier trading prospects for moderate gains (if that).

Raley will turn 35 next season. In his career, he’s been a LOOGY, but we’re in the era of the three batter rule which neutralizes LOOGYS. In reality, it should make them an endangered species.

The counter is Raley was good against RHB last season, and that’s true. However, that came with a .281 BABIP. His career mark against RHP entering the season was .296.

That’s not too surprising with Park Factors rating Tropicana Field as an extreme pitchers park. Another factor is how well the Rays shift. On that note, there’s no more shifting next season.

Digging deeper, the 2022 season was an anomaly for Raley in total. It was his only season with an ERA lower than 3.94 and one of only two under 4.78. It was one one of his two seasons with an ERA+ higher than 94 and an FIP lower than 3.94.

Again, to buy this trade as a good idea, you’re buying he finally discovered it at 34 well past the prime of normal players. There is something to be said for his increased slider use, and it is a great slider.

However, batters and teams catch up over time. His 5.00 ERA over the last month of the season could be evidence of that already happening (or not).

Looked at another way, this is still a gamble. With pitchers like Andrew Chafin still available, Joey Lucchesi appearing ticketed to the bullpen, and Raley’s age, you really have to question the gamble.

There’s also the matter of Raley not wearing the Rays rainbow flag patch during Pride Night. Notably, Raley would not speak to the media personally about his decision.

We can have a whole debate about the stand inclusive of how Raley showed he’s not always going to follow organizational decisions. Beyond that is a very clear message the Mets sent to their fans.

Agree or disagree with Raley’s stance (which he couldn’t himself defend), the Mets made a clear message they don’t care about that portion of their fanbase. This is a far cry from when Steve Cohen removed the Chick-fil-A advertisements from the foul poles.

Again, was a 35 year old LOOGY in an era of the rules made against the use of LOOGYS worth sending that message to part of your fanbase?

There’s also the matter of Askew. He throws 95+ MPH, and he generates a high number of strikeouts (33.7 K%). Askew was an interesting and soon to be fast rising prospect. Instead, he’s gone to an organization who has a GM better equipped to analyze prospects.

In the end, the Mets gave up a lot for Raley. That’s in terms of prospect value and how fans view the team. Doing that for a reliever in his mid 30s with one good season in his career is highly suspect. In fact, it’s senseless. M

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Brandon Nimmo Mets Legacy At Stake

One of the topics discussed with Jacob deGrom‘s free agency was his New York Mets legacy. If he were to stay, he was definitively going to surpass David Wright as the best player in team history to spend his entire career with the Mets. However, deGrom signed with the Texas Rangers leaving Wright’s legacy secured.

That is not to say Wright’s legacy is set in stone. There are other players who could potentially challenge Wright’s status with the franchise. One of those players could be Brandon Nimmo.

Nimmo has started to make some headway onto the Mets record books. He’s fourth all-time in OBP, 11th in SLG and triples, 21st in runs scored, and 29th in doubles. He’s in the top 30 in a number of other categories. He’s also fifth all-time in wRC+ and sixth in OPS+.

Put another way, Nimmo has been one of the more dynamic offensive weapons in Mets history. He is not seen as such, but one day he could be viewed as the best lead-off hitter in team history. At the moment, that title probably belongs to Jose Reyes partially due to his longevity, and also, partially because of the stolen bases and triples.

In terms of Wright and Reyes, Nimmo has proven to be the far superior defender. Yes, Wright has the two Gold Gloves, but for his career, he had a -24 DRS. We can ignore OAA because there is only data for his 2016 season when he should not have been in the field due to the spinal stenosis. For his part, Reyes had a -60 DRS at short.

Nimmo was great this year in center with a 6 OAA. Much of that is in thanks to the Mets rebuilt scouting and analytical departments who positioned Nimmo better in the outfield. At the moment, he is a very good defensive center fielder. Over the long term, we know he will age well as he has experience playing good defense in the corners.

All told, Nimmo looks like the type of player who can emerge as one of the true greats in franchise history. In fact, he could emerge as the best.

He’s knocking at the door in terms of advanced offensive metrics like wRC+ and OPS+. We also see his defense at a level where he has become very good. That all should translate to WAR. That did this past season with him having a 5.1 bWAR and 5.4 fWAR. Of course, that is where things get a little more dicey with him.

At the moment, Nimmo ranks 14th among position players in Mets history with a 17.2 bWAR. That leaves him trailing Wright’s 49.2 by 32.0. His 17.9 fWAR ranks 13th, and he trails Wright’s 51.2 by 33.3. That is a significant gap.

However, as we learned with Wright’s career, you need to both stay and be healthy. For his part, Wright did stay, but sadly, he was not healthy as his career came to a very premature end due to spinal stenosis. When it comes to Nimmo, for most of his career, he has been injury prone, but for the first time this year, he was relatively healthy.

If Nimmo can stay healthy and stay, there’s a chanced he catches Wright. Assuming he lands a five year deal, he would have to average a 6.4 bWAR and 6.7 fWAR to catch Wright. Considering Nimmo’s high is a 5.1, that is a steep ask, but then again, he is capable of doing it or coming close to it.

Keeping in mind there is a universal DH and an ability to move to one of the corners, there is a chance Nimmo could play longer into his career and remain productive. We did see it with a player like Curtis Granderson. Again, while we can dicker over the likeliness of it all, it still remains a possibility.

However, for all of that to even be a discussion, the first step has to happen. Nimmo has to stay and re-sign. Of course, that’s not all on Nimmo. Much of that is on the Mets. When it comes to that, Nimmo being the only real center fielder on the market means the Mets have no other choice than to step up and keep him.

We saw Jacob deGrom leave. That was unfortunate. The Mets cannot let Nimmo leave. They need to keep him and let him secure his own legacy as a member of the New York Mets.

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