Musings
At what point does T.J. Rivera finally get his shot?
In his minor league career, Rivera has hit everywhere he’s gone. In his minor league career, he’s hit .320/.367/.423. For the past three years, he’s played Winter Ball hitting .307/.361/.445. Bottom line is Rivera has hit everywhere he has played in his entire minor league career. He had gotten better each and every year. For example, he’s hitting .330/.360/.524 in Triple-A right now.
Even with Rivera hitting so well and improving, it seems like the undrafted 27 year old may never get his shot.
He didn’t last year. The Mets were more comfortable with a struggling Dilson Herrera. They were more comfortable with Danny Muno. They didn’t protect him in the Rule 5 draft despite his offensive production. The Mets were able to keep him because no one thought he was worthy of a Rule 5 pick. Seeing what the Braves put on the field, it makes you question what are we missing with Rivera?
There is a tendency to scout a player’s minor league statistics. The belief is that if a player can hit in the minors, they can hit in the majors. The inverse of that is deemed to be true as well. However, there are many more factors at play like level of competition, approach at the plate, level of experience and age compared to the competition, etc. When taking a totality of the circumstances, a player who hits well in the minors but isn’t deemed good enough to hit in the majors is tagged as a AAAA player.
Is that the case with Rivera? Is he really just a AAAA player? That would be the most logical explanation as to why he still hasn’t gotten his shot.
To answer that, we need to look at what he is. Rivera is a utility player that can play second, third and short. In reality, given his range and arm strength, he’s best suited to second base. Overall, no matter where you play him, he’s not that great defensively. Despite his relative versatility, it’s Rivera’s bat that would carry him to the majors.
As discussed above, Rivera has hit everywhere. There’s good reason for that. He’s a disciplined hitter. He has a good compact swing, and he’s a gap to gap line drive hitter. He doesn’t generate much power, but he’s capable of the occasional double. In short, Rivera shows the skills to be able to get on base no matter what the level.
What we don’t know if that ability will ever translate. At the major league level, the Mets have Wilmer Flores and Eric Campbell. Campbell, in particular, is what Rivera aspires to be. Campbell can play a multitude of positions. He doesn’t generate much power, but he has shown the ability to get on base. So long as Campbell gets on base, the Mets aren’t sending him down.
In the event Campbell ever gets sent down, it’s highly unlikely Rivera ever gets the call. He’s buried at the upper levels of the Mets minor league system behind guys like Herrera, Matt Reynolds, and Gavin Cecchini. Worse yet, Rivera isn’t on the 40 man roster thereby further decreasing his chances of ever getting a shot.
Unfortunately, it appears Rivera may never get his shot with the Mets. He may never get an opportunity to show he has the tools to hit and get on base in the major leagues. It’s a testament to a deep Mets farm system. It’s an indictment of the rest of baseball, who apply AAAA tags to players without ever giving them a chance that they’ve earned.
T.J. Rivera has earned a shot to play in the major leagues. Hopefully, he will get that shot someday.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsminors.net
After a stretch where Kevin Plawecki hit .167/.348/.167, Terry Collins couldn’t bite his tongue anymore. Collins took the rare step of calling out one of his players publicly when he said, “I don’t mean to put a lot of pressure on him, but he’s got to start getting some hits. We all thought he was going to be a good offensive player. We need [him] to start getting hits.” (NY Post).
It was a bold move from Collins. He was challenging a player who had yet to rise to the challenges given to him.
Plawecki has risen to the challenge. In the first five games since Collins’ statement, Plawecki is hitting .333/.368/.667 with three doubles and a homer. He’s not just making contact. He’s hitting the ball with more authority. He’s finally showing why the Mets drafted him in the first round in 2012. He’s finally showing glimpses of the .290/.364/.432 hitter he was in the minor leagues.
Now, to say it’s Collins’ words is a bit cliched. Plawecki has been working with Kevin Long, who is a terrific hitting coach. He’s been in the majors for nearly a year now. He’s had the sinus surgery. He’s in a much better lineup than he was last year. He’s getting regular playing time. Ultimately, it’s probably not just one thing, but a multitude of things. In any event, something seems to have clicked with Plawecki once Collins made his statement.
It’s important because the Mets don’t know when Travis d’Arnaud will come back, or how he will play upon his return. The Mets need Plawecki to step up in d’Arnaud’s absence. It looks like Plawecki is finally doing it.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsmerizedonline.com
In 1950, Vin Scully joined the Brooklyn Dodgers broadcast booth. As a child, my father was blessed to have heard a booth with both Scully and Red Barber call Dodger games. It was the broadcast he was listening to when his beloved Dodgers won the 1955 World Series. Then the Dodgers moved to Los Angeles in 1958, and Scully went with them.
It would be another 30 years until my father heard Scully call a game in which his favorite team won the World Series. What Mets fan doesn’t remember this call:
The answer is several. Amazingly, this call was 30 years ago. Chances are if you were born after 1976, you don’t have a vivid memory of this call.
I know I don’t, but that’s not because of my memory. I remember that moment like it was yesterday. The reason why I don’t remember the call was I never heard it. My parents had thrown an engagement party for my aunt, which was really an excuse to get a ton of Mets fans together to watch Game 6. When that ball went through Buckner’s legs, everyone erupted and drowned out the call. So like many Mets fans today, I have no specific recollection of hearing Vin Scully calling a Mets game.
That’s a shame. He’s retiring this year, and tonight may be the last time he will ever call a Mets game as he doesn’t make road trips anymore. We’ve seen the tributes from Gary Cohen and Howie Rose. They were well done, but there’s a much more fitting tribute. The Mets should air an inning (or half inning) of Vin Scully calling the game. Let Mets fans, young and old, get the opportunity to marvel at what makes Scully among the greatest, if not the greatest, broadcaster that ever lived.
Mets fans should once again hear Scully calling a Mets game. As we saw in 1986, it is pure magic.
If you were up late last night, you discovered Noah Syndergaard had his elbow examined two weeks ago. Earlier in the day, it was discovered Steven Matz is going to miss his next start with his own elbow problems.
There’s only one way to react to this news:
Thor had his elbow examined?!?!?!?https://t.co/i7LkLBHiWO via @giphy
— Mets Daddy (@MetsDaddy2013) May 12, 2016
Move over Walt Terrell. Noah Syndergaard “hammered” two homeruns:
#HRDerby with @Mets pitchers … who you got?https://t.co/Kmv2E5YmvR #PitchersWhoRakehttps://t.co/WKEQErjbOu
— MLB (@MLB) May 12, 2016
The two homers were more impressive than originally thought:
Noah Syndergaard's homers registered 407 & 400 feet. He's the only pitcher in the majors with three 400+ homers since his debut 365 days ago
— Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinMedia) May 12, 2016
https://twitter.com/bbtn/status/730608220738322432
The second homerun was after Syndergaard failed to bunt the runners over. With two strikes, he then swung away hitting his second homerun of the game. At the plate, Syndergaard went 2-3 with the aforementioned two homers and four RBI (which also tied a Mets record for most RBI in a game by a Mets pitcher). Syndergaard might’ve struck out in the sixth with the bases loaded, but he certainly got his hacks in. He was trying to hit that’s third homer, but it was for naught. He also struck out on the eighth while swinging for the fences.
Interstingly enough, Syndergaard was responsible for four homeruns. While he hit two, he also allowed two. The first was hit by Corey Seager in the third and Yasmani Grandal in the fourth. Other than those two homers, Syndergaard shut down the Dodgers. He pitched eight innings allowing six hits, two earned, and one walk with six strikeouts. Jeurys Familia pitched the ninth to preserve the 4-3 win he’s now a perfect 12/12 in save chances.
Overall, you know it’s a good game when your dominance on the mound is little more than a footnote. For Syndergaard’s next game, he had some big shoes to fill. Tom Seaver and Ron Darling are the only two Mets’ pitchers to homer in consecutive starts. Interestingly enough, the Mets received Terrell and Darling in exchange for Lee Mazzilli. As we know, Syndergaard was involved in a pretty big trade himself.
Game Notes: It appears Rene Rivera is becoming Syndergaard’s personal catcher. It’s a good solution to Syndergaard’s problem with base stealers. David Wright sat with what was either normal rest or a sore shoulder. Eric Campbell got the start over a slumping Wilmer Flores. Both Campbell and Yoenis Cespedes would steal a base. Coming into the game, the Mets had only stolen eight stolen bases. Neil Walker returned to the lineup for the first time since bruising his shin.
As reported in several media outlets yesterday, Stephen Strasburg received a seven year $175 million contract extension. The deal has an average annual value of $25 million. The contract features rolling opt out clauses after the third or fourth year. Additionally, Strasburg will receive a million dollar bonus each year he pitches over 180 innings.
Strasburg is a former number one overall pick. He’s 27 years old. He has had Tommy John surgery. He is in his fifth full big league season. He throws hard with a 96 MPH fastball, 89 MPH change and slider, and an 81 MPH curve. In his career, he is 59-37 with a 3.07 ERA, 127 ERA+, 2.80 FIP, 1.089 WHIP, and a 10.5 K/9. He’s struck out 200 batters in a season once, made one All Star team, and finished in the Top 10 in Cy Young voting once.
Before the contact extension, he was slated to be the top free agent on the market. Also, his agent is Scott Boras.
This contract confirms what all Mets fans know. Keeping the current starting staff together when they start becoming free agents is next to impossible. Not even the late George Steinbrenner would be willing to spend the money necessary to keep this staff together.
Back in 2013 when Matt Harvey was becoming one of the best pitchers in baseball, Mets fans would cheer “Harvey’s Better!” when Harvey faced Strasburg. They were right, and despite Harvey’s early season struggles, they are still right. Harvey has a better career ERA+ and FIP than Strasburg. Accordingly, when’s he’s approaching free agency in 2019, wouldn’t he be worth more money than Strasburg? Boras, who is also Harvey’s agent, will certainly make that case.
If Harvey gets that money, what does that mean for the other Mets starters? Right now, Noah Syndergaard is amongst the best pitchers in baseball at 23 years of age, and he’s only getting better. Steven Matz is a 24 year old lefty, who is 9-1 with a 2.56 ERA in his career. Also, don’t forget Jacob deGrom, who many consider to be the staff’s ace.
If all four of these players get a Strasburg deal, that’s $100 million just to the starting pitching. Keep in mind that doesn’t take into consideration the fact that each one of these pitchers could reasonably seek more when they come up to free agency.
As per Spotrac, the Mets payroll is at $131 million. That would mean the Mets would have $31 million to spend on the other 21 players. With that $31 million, the Mets will also have to find money to sign Jeurys Familia and Michael Conforto to their own lucrative contract extensions. By the way, Conforto is also represented by Boras.
Unfortunately, re-signing all of these players simply isn’t feasible. Deep down, we all knew it. The Stephen Strasburg signing only confirmed it.
Yesterday, the bases were loaded with one out in the third inning. We then saw Yoenis Cespedes do something incredible. He got doubled off second base.
Juan Lagares had hit a flyball to left center. It wasn’t terribly deep, but it was certainly deep enough to score David Wright from third. Wright never scored because Cespedes drifted a little too far off of second, and he went back into the base standing. Wright’s run wouldn’t count, and it was all because Cespedes made an inexplicable bone headed play. It wasn’t the first time.
Last year, we saw him allow not one:
but two:
Little League homeruns.
It’s as bizarre. It’s inexplicable.
That’s the problem with him. For as great and as talented as he is, he makes some bone-headed plays. He can look lazy out there at times. Cespedes gets away with it due to his immense talent. The quintessential Cespedes play is the time he threw Sean Rodriguez out at third:
He took a bad angle to the ball. He never reached full speed in pursuing the ball in the air or on the ground. But that arm! His arm was incredible, and it bailed him and the Mets out. It was his arm that got me excited in Game One of the NLCS.
The Cubs were finally making contact against Matt Harvey. They had tied the score at 1-1, and they were still rallying when Javier Baez singled to left. Sitting in the left field Promenade, I was excited because I knew Cespedes was going to do this:
Cespedes is a uniquely talented player. He’s got great speed. He has a great arm. At the plate, he hits for power. There’s a reason why his nickname is La Potencia.
But still, at the plate he can drive you crazy. He swings at balls out of the zone. He especially likes them low and outside. Furthermore, he likes them high. To a certain extent, he lacks plate discipline as is evident from his career .321 OBP or the fact that he has struck out over 100 times each year he has been in the majors. When he does strike out, I’ve yet to see him run to first on a pitch in the dirt. It’s enough to drive you crazy. But then, in typical Cespedes fashion, he does this:
He has the ability to change the entire course of the game with just one swing. We saw it after the trade deadline, and we saw it again this year:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cWsfXqxPNao
That’s what is frustrating with Cespedes. He is extremely talented. Perhaps, he is singularly most talented player in the game right now. If he’s not, he’s certainly up there. It’s why I love watching him play. You never know what amazing thing he’s going to do next.
You also don’t know what bone-headed thing he’s going to do next. I hate it when he makes inexplicably bad plays like that. Through it all, I’ve developed a love/hate relationship with this remarkably talented and mistake prone player.
The funny thing is, right now, I wouldn’t change a thing.
So far this year, the Mets bullpen has been dominant. Their dominance was all the more astounding when you consider Jeurys Familia was struggling to start the year.
In Familia’s first nine appearances, he was a shadow of his former self. Opponents were hitting .325/.386/.350 against him. He had a 3.00 ERA and a 1.89 WHIP. He was striking out less than a batter an inning. He was noticeably fighting it on the mound. He wasn’t getting his sinker down. He wasn’t locating the ball like he usually has been able.
The only good news was that Familia was bearing down when he needed to do so. During this time, he was a perfect 5/5 in save chances. Familia was getting the job done, but it was ugly.
It now seems that Familia has turned the corner, and he had returned to his dominant form. In his last seven appearances, Familia has shut down the other team. Opposing batters are only hitting .130/.130/.174 against him. He’s locating the ball better. As a result, he’s not walking anyone. During this stretch Familia has a 1.29 ERA and a 0.43 WHIP. He’s back to striking out nearly a batter per inning. He’s been a perfect 6/6 in save chances, and he is now leading the league in saves. In short, Familia is back.
As we’ve seen, Familia is a great closer capable of pitching multiple innings and closing out the biggest games. He’s back to pitching like that. This Mets bullpen and team just got even better because Familia is officially back.
There’s a lead late in the game. It’s a save situation. Terry Collins makes the switch. Juan Lagares goes into the game to play center. Yoenis Cespedes shifts over to left. The Mets put out their best possible outfield to try to preserve the lead. In the infield, the Mets do nothing.
Maybe it’s time the Mets changed that.
For all the great things David Wright has done this year, he’s still having some trouble in the field. While it’s still a small sample size, the defensive numbers are ugly. He has a -7 DRS and a -5.1 UZR. In terms of more traditional numbers, he’s got a .945 fielding percentage. It’s a far cry from his Gold Glove days. Frankly, these are poor numbers.
It’s exacerbated by his throwing issues. He is dropping his arm a bit, throwing it sidearmed more. The ball doesn’t have as much zip as it once did. With his throwing issues, it could be argued the Mets would benefit from a defensive replacement at third base.
There’s another good reason to lift Wright during games. He’s got spinal stenosis.
As Marc Carig wrote in Newsday, Wright pushed himself last month, and as a result, he could not stand straight. He had played four games in a row. It was one too many. Wright thought it might be going into that game, but he pushed it anyway. He learned his lesson. He can’t do it again. As Wright said, “I learned right then that if I tried to do this during the whole course of the year, I’m not making it. It’s just not happening.”
That’s the point. The Mets need Wright for the full season. They need him for important games in September when the division and/or a playoff spot may be on the line. The Mets will need him for the postseason. Despite his defensive struggles, Wright has played well this year. He’s getting on base ahead of the Mets big boppers. Given the eulogies being written on Opening Day, it’s fair to say Wright has been better than expected.
The Mets need Wright. They need him to stay healthy. They have to help him to the finish line. They have to keep him fresh. The games off here and there will help. Finding an inning here or there should help as well. It’ll be beneficial for Wright and his back. That will allow him to play at a high level deeper into the season. Ultimately, that’s the goal.
Besides, if we’re being honest, it’s not like Wilmer Flores or Eric Campbell would be any worse than Wright has been this year. They should be a defensive replacement now so Wright can take the field in October.