Musings
There’s having a short bench due to injuries, and then there is what the Mets did last night.
With the Mets needing to skips Jacob deGrom start, the Mets needed to call up a starter to take his place in the rotation. The corollary to that is the Mets needed to send someone down to make room for Rafael Montero on the roster.
The obvious choice was Robert Gsellman. Gsellman had just started on Sunday meaning he was not slated to pitch until Friday. However, he wasn’t going to start on Friday. That start is going to go to Steven Matz, who by all accounts, will be ready to come off the disabled list. With Matz reclaiming his rotation spot, Gsellman was not needed.
Instead, the Mets sent down T.J. Rivera. They sent down T.J. Rivera even though Neil Walker has had to miss a few games with a lingering back injury. Rivera was sent down despite Asdrubal Cabrera having to leave Sunday’s game due to a re-aggravation of his knee injury. Rivera was sent down even though he was the only thing resembling healthy versatile infield depth on the Mets roster. Rivera being sent down meant the Mets had no margin of error on the infield. It was something that was almost a huge issue last night as A.J. Ramos fell on Jose Reyes‘ shoulder as Reyes scored on a wild pitch.
It also meant the Mets had a short bench last night. With Rafael Montero only being able to go five innings, Terry Collins had to use Jacob deGrom to pinch hit. In an effort to win the game with one swing, Collins burned Rene Rivera and then turned to Jay Bruce. When Bruce didn’t deliver, the Mets best pinch hitting option remaining was Noah Syndergaard. Fortunately, like he has done so many times in the past, Yoenis Cespedes bailed out the Mets with a tenth inning walk off home run.
Like it has most of the season, the Mets handling of the roster has been left a lot to be desired. It might not have cost them last night’s game, but it has cost them games this season. With only two more days before rosters expand, hopefully, the days of the Mets purposefully playing with a short roster are behind us.
In case everyone forgot with his golfing and his stint on the disabled list, Yoenis Cespedes changed his walk-up music from his personal song . . .
. . . to one of the songs from The Lion King. Specifically, he went with the “Circle of Life.”
Apparently, Cespedes wants to remind everyone, he’s the king around here. Not the prince. THE KING!
King Cespedes has drawn inspiration from the song celebrating his kingdom as it has inspired him to circle the bases while he gives the Mets new life:
Now, with Cespedes once again firmly establishing he’s king around here, Jose Reyes has provided him with his crown:
Long Live King Cespedes!
Last year, Hansel Robles found himself situtated in the back end of the Mets bullpen with Terry Collins never fully trusting him during the course of the entire season. That was never more evidenced than when Collins only used Robles when he absolutely had to during the 2015 postseason.
In 2015, Robles made a total of 57 appearances for the Mets pitching 54.0 innings. In the minors, he pitched in five more games pitching an additional 7.2 innings. In total, Robles made 62 total appearances throwing 61.2 innings during the regular season. This year, Robles has already made 56 appearances throwing a total of 63.o innings. With a month left to go in the season, Robles has already thrown more innings than he did last year. That’s not the only sign that Robles has been overworked this year.
Last year, Robles pitched in back-to-back games 15 times, one day of rest 18 times, and two days of rest nine times. This year, Robles has already pitched in back-to-back games 10 times, one day of rest 17 times, and two days of rest 20 times. In essence, Robles has been getting far less of an extended break between appearances to rest up than he did last season. Unfortunately, there’s still more to Robles being overworked.
Throughout the entire 2015 season, Robles threw 892 pitches. He had thrown 30 or more pitches in three separate appearances. This year, Robles has thrown 1,149 pitches. Moreover, he has thrown 30 or more pitches in 11 appearances. This includes appearances in which Robles has thrown 52, 41, and 65 pitches. In a stretch of six days ranging from June 19th to June 24th, Robles made three appearances throwing 127 pitches. After any game Robles threw 30+ pitches, he averaged two days of rest. That number is skewed as he once received five days of rest. Typically, Robles has received 0-2 days of rest between 30 pitch performances. Last year, he never threw more than 38 pitches in an appearance. When he made that appearance last year, he was given three days of rest.
Additionally, in 2015, Robles pitched more than an inning only eight times. In five of those appearances over one inning, he went two innings four times, and three innings once. This year, he has already thrown more than an inning 11 times with Robles going at least two innings in 10 of those appearances. Furthermore, Robles has gone over two innings four times, and he has pitched three innings or more on three separate occasions.
Seeing how Robles has been used, it should come as no surprise that he has seen a dip in velocity. According to Brooks Baseball, Robles threw a 96.33 MPH four seamer, 89.74 MPH change, and an 88.25 MPH slider. This year, his velocity is down, but most notably his slider’s velocity is down. Robles has been throwing a 95.91 MPH fastball, an 89.00 MPH changeup, and an 84.94 MPH slider.
Overall, no matter where you look, Robles has been overworked, and recently he has been showing the effects of an increased and trying workload. Robles has gone from a 2.98 ERA, 1.370 WHIP, and an 11.1 K/9 in the first half of the season to a 6.53 ERA, 1.548 WHIP, and a 7.8 K/9 so far in the second half.
Overall, the question shouldn’t be why Robles has suddenly gotten much worse. The real question is whether the Mets can balance finding time for both he and Jacob deGrom to rest in order to allow them to get back to being the pitcher they truly are while also being able to stay in the pennant race. Ultimately, the Mets are going to have to find a way because an overworked Robles is not helping them.
It’s hard to think of a time when there was so much riding on one game not just for a team, but also for the team’s starting pitcher.
For the Mets, the largeness of the situation is obvious. The Mets are entering a four game set against the Miami Marlins at Citi Field. The Mets are currently one game behind the Marlins in the race for the second Wild Card, and they are 2.5 games back (three in the loss column) of the St. Louis Cardinals. By winning three out of four, the Mets will go from one game back of the Marlins to going two games ahead of them in the Wild Card race. The hope is also that the Mets make up some ground against the Cardinals and Pirates as well.
For Rafael Montero, there is so much more at stake. For Montero, his future with the entire Mets organization could very well be coming to an end. The Mets have notable prospects like Amed Rosario, Gavin Cecchini, and Marcos Molina who will need to be added to the 40 man roster or be exposed to the Rule 5 Draft. Given Montero’s failures at the major league level, and the fact that the team has been frustrated with him for well over a season now, Montero’s future with the Mets looks bleak.
It never looked bleaker than when he was demoted to AA earlier this season. However, something strange happened there. For the first time in his career, Montero responded to adversity. In eight starts, Montero has gone 4-2 with a 1.70 ERA and a 1.091 WHIP. It is clearly the best Montero has ever pitched in his entire career. Part of the reason why is because Montero’s command is much better in AA, and his changeup has been better. Given his repetoire, both were always a necessity for him in order to succeed. Another possibility for Montero’s success was his facing presumably weaker batters in AA. This has all lead to him having more confidence on the mound, and him returning to the type of pitcher that once was regarded as a better prospect than Jacob deGrom.
The Mets need that Montero tonight against a Marlins team that has a habit of breaking the Mets’ hearts. It’s a Marlins team that is sending their ace, Jose Fernandez, to the mound tonight. Not only is Fernandez an ace, but he has dominated the Mets in his young career. In seven starts against the Mets, he is 3-0 with a 1.54 ERA, 0.951 WHIP, and an 11.9 K/9. He has limited the Mets’ batters to a .181/.247/.236 batting line. The Mets are going to need Montero to be lights out in order to keep them in the game.
If he is, Montero will not only help the Mets postseason chances, he will also help himself. He can change what the Mets perception of him will be. He can once again find himself a part of the Mets future instead of being a guy who may very well be on his way out the door.
The Mets have a back-end of the bullpen problem as no one has stepped up to claim that final spot.
For the second straight night, Sean Gilmartin had a tough outing. Overall, it has been a lost year for him with his shoulder injury and the fact that he has an 8.10 ERA in the majors this year.
He took over the spot of Erik Goeddel, who has had a disappointing year. He has a history of injuries, and he has been overworked by Terry Collins. The end result is a 4.55 ERA in 29 appearances.
One of the pleasant surprises to the season that Terry Collins helped ruined is Jim Henderson. Since coming off the disabled list, he has allowed two runs in 2.2 innings. In 29 appearances since throwing a career high 34 pitches, Henderson has a 4.74 ERA and a 1.378 WHIP.
Another nice story is Josh Smoker, who has fought his way from the Independent Leagues to the majors. Still, he has a 6.75 ERA with a 1.750 WHIP in five appearances.
Smoker has taken the place of Josh Edgin who has not fully regained his velocity in his first season after Tommy John surgery. In his limited appearances, he has a 9.82 ERA and a 1.909 WHIP.
In addition to these relievers, the Mets have tried some starters in the pen. Collins showed he had no use for Rafael Montero, who justified Collins’ refusal to play him, by pitching poorly when he finally got a shot. Gabriel Ynoa struggled out of the pen. With Steven Matz going on the disabled list, Robert Gsellman is in the rotation. Furthermore, with the Mets needing to skip a Jacob deGrom start, Montero will start on Monday.
The Mets have searched high and low, and they still haven’t found the answer in the bullpen. They haven’t found the pitcher who will be both effective and be able to allow Collins to give the overworked Hansel Robles, Addison Reed, and Jeurys Familia a break. It’s frustrating because the Mets have seemingly looked everywhere for a solution.
That is everywhere but Las Vegas 51s closer Paul Sewald. It’s strange the Mets haven’t turned to Sewald as he’s certainly merited a call-up.
In 52 appearances, Sewald is 5-3 with 19 saves, a 3.52 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an astounding 11.2 K/9. Further justifying a call-up is the fact that Sewald is currently pitching the best he has all year. After the All Star Break, Sewald has saved six games with a 2.25 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and a 12.6 K/9 in 16 appearances. These numbers are all the more impressive when you consider Sewald is doing this in the extremely hitter friendly Pacific Coast League.
Consider current Mets savior Seth Lugo had a 7.73 ERA in the Pacific Coast League, and he has a 2.51 ERA in the majors. As Lugo had showed, success at the majors is all about a pitcher’s arsenal.
Sewald has similar stuff to Reed, who has been brilliant since coming under the tutelage of pitching coach Dan Warthen. Sewald features a low nineties fastball and a plus slider. He maximizes on his repertoire by studying scouting reports. It also helps that Sewald pounds the strike zone. Long story short he had the stuff to compete at the major league level.
The only question is whether he will get the chance. He should as the Mets have looked elsewhere and still haven’t found someone they can rely upon in the back end of the bullpen. They should be able to rely on Sewald.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsminors.net
At the end of the month, 29 year old Tim Tebow is going to hold a showcase for all interested major league teams in an attempt to get a professional contract. The Mets should attend the showcase, and regardless of the outcome, the Mets should sign him.
There are those that will tell you he can play baseball. Former Met and current player agent Gary Sheffield called Tebow “a natural” at the plate. Mets hitting coach Kevin Long looked at tape of Tebow’s swing, and he said, “His swing is very simple. Not a whole lot of head or body movement. Chad and Tim did a nice job of simplifying and putting his swing together. It’s short and explosive.” (New York Daily News). Couple that with Tebow’s belief in his own abilities and his raw athletic talent, and Tebow may just very well prove all the doubters wrong and become a major league player.
These are all very well and good reasons why you would take a flyer on Tebow. There’s a bigger reason why you would take a flyer on him – money.
Everywhere Tebow goes, fans follow. When he became a New York Jet, fans went out and purchased his jersey. When he got one last chance with the Philadelphia Eagles, Tebow’s jersey was the 15th best selling jersey in the NFL ahead of players like Tony Romo. Whatever team winds up with him is going to get a major boost in attendance. That matters for teams that own their low level minor league affiliates.
Considering the Mets own the St. Lucie Mets and the Brooklyn Cyclones, the Mets organization should get a jolt of revenue if Tebow were to play in either location. That holds true for St. Lucie, which is in his native Florida, where he has a huge following. That also holds true for Brooklyn where Tebow has a following among Jets fans. That doesn’t even account for the people who will want to come just to see the spectacle.
Keep in mind, Tebow is not necessarily taking the spot of another prospect. Teams routinely fill out their minor league rosters with depth players who they know will never make it to the majors. However, those players don’t typically draw in revenue the way Tebow most likely will. For that reason alone, Tebow is worth a flyer.
Who knows? He may actually have enough talent to make his way to the majors in the process.
The entire Jon Niese situation is just another unforced error in a series of unforced errors during the entire Mets season in how they have dealt with pitcher injuries.
It started with Matt Harvey. From the beginning of the season when he had his medical issues, there was something wrong with Harvey. However, even with his missing time due to it, he started on Opening Day. He struggled somewhat on Opening Day as he would most of the season. He consistently complained of issues with his mechanics, and on a few occasions, the Mets actually debated whether or not he should be sent down to the minors. Even with his velocity drop, the Mets pinned it on mechanics. As it would turn out, Harvey has thoracic outlet syndrome requiring him to have season ending surgery.
Next up was Steven Matz. Matz has bone spurs in his elbow that are very painful. Matz wanted to have the surgery, but the Mets talked him out of it. Instead, the Mets shot him up with painkillers before every start, and they put him on the mound. The Mets did this despite Matz not pitching anywhere near as well as he had been pitching before the bone spurs became an issue. When Matz finally did seem to turn things around, he went on the disabled list with a shoulder strain and rotator cuff irritation. For what it’s worth, it does not seem like he is going to miss the rest of the season. However, given how the Mets have handled him thus far, it is fair to question if this decision is predicated on trying to win as many games as possible or whether Matz really will be ready to return.
Finally, we are back at Niese, who the Mets brought back because they needed another arm with all of the other injuries the Mets had. When Niese faltered in the bullpen allowing six earned in an inning of relief work, the Mets moved him to the rotation believing starting would be better for him and his knee. They were of course wrong. Niese would only last four batters in his last start against the Cardinals before having to come out of the game. Now, he is going to have surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee. He may very well be done for the season.
The Mets decision to start Niese taxed the bullpen as Mets relievers needed to go 8.2 innings in the game. Speaking of the bullpen, we again circle back at the Jim Henderson decision. Henderson is coming off two shoulder surgeries, and he did not pitch in the majors this year. A day after Henderson threw a career high 34 pitches in a game, Terry Collins went right back to him in a “must-win” April game. Henderson would have reduced velocity not just in that appearance, but also future appearances. He would eventually have to go on the disabled list with a right should impingement.
Judging from how Collins has used Erik Goeddel both this season, a pitcher who has had a series of arm issues, it appears the Mets have no intention of learning from past mistakes.
There is no doubt the Mets have had some bad luck on the injury front. Harvey’s thoracic outlet syndrome wasn’t caused by anything the team did, and bone spurs is a common issue for pitchers. There is no evidence to suggest the Mets did anything to cause Niese’s injury. So no, the injuries aren’t the Mets fault. The issue is how the Mets have handled those injuries. Instead of the Mets giving these players rest and putting them on the disabled list as a precaution like how the Nationals did with Stephen Strasburg, the Mets told them to go out there and continue pitching. It created the possibility that each and every single one of these pitchers could have been further injured.
So no, the Mets can’t be blamed for how each of these pitchers got injured. Rather, the Mets can be blamed for these pitchers might have had further injuries with how the Mets have handled them.
There are a multitude of reasons why the Mets are only a game over .500 and 3.5 games back of the Cardinals for the second Wild Card.
The most popular excuse is injuries. There is some validity there with Matt Harvey, Lucas Duda, and David Wright gone for the year. Yoenis Cespedes was hobbled by a quad injury before he was finally forced to go on the disabled list. Now that he’s back, he has a heel issue. Both Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz are dealing with bone spurs. Matz is also dealing with a shoulder issue that landed him on the disabled list. For what it’s worth, Jon Niese is also on the disabled list as he needs arthroscopic surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee.
That’s a litany of injuries, and that’s not all of them. However, that’s not the Mets biggest problem. The Mets biggest problem is they’re not beating the Mets they are supposed to beat.
Over the past two weeks, the Mets went 1-5 against the woeful Diamondbacks. TheDiamondbacks can’t best anyone as represented by their 53-75 record, which is a 93 loss pace.
The Padres are on the same 93 loss pace with a 53-74 record. On the season, the Mets could only muster a 4-3 record against them.
The Mets are 7-6 against the Braves this year. The Braves are well on their way to a 100 loss season with a 46-82 record.
The Mets are 5-4 against the Phillies. The Phillies are near a 90 less pace with a 59-68 record. With the Phillies rolling into town, the Mets can turn that 5-4 mark to an 8-4 mark.
Fact is the Mets need to do that if they have designs on getting back to the postseason. Keep in mind, beating teams like the Phillies and Braves powered the Mets run to a division title.
In 2015, the Mets were 90-72, which is 18 games over .500. Against the Phillies, Braves, and Marlins, three teams that lost over 90 games, the Mets were a combined 36-21. Against just those three terrible teams, the Mets went 15 games over .500. It goes a long way in explaining why the Mets were 18 games over .500 and won the division.
Currently, the Mets are 64-63. Against the aforementioned second division clubs, the Mets are 17-18, one game over .500. If the Mets played those 35 games at a similar clip than they did against the intradivision 90+ loss teams in 2015, the Mets would’ve gone 22-13. That would mean that the Mets would be a more respectable 69-58. That would’ve put them in a tie with the Giants for the first Wild Card and five games back in the division.
Now, if the Mets beat the aforementioned second division clubs at the same rate other teams beat them, their record against those teams would be be 21-14. This means the Mets record would be 68-59 giving them a half game lead for the second Wild Card and putting them a game behind the Giants for the first Wild Card.
Overall, people can point to injuries all they want, but the simple fact is even with those injuries, the Mets were still better than the Phillies, Braves, Diamondbacks, and Padres. They just didn’t play like it.
The Mets have a chance to reverse course. Of their remaining 35 games, 22 of them are against teams under .500. If the Mets truly want to win the Wild Card, they’ll need to destroy those opponents like they did in 2015. That begins tonight when the Mets begin their three game set against the Phillies.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online
One of the long forgotten storylines of the early part of the season was the Mets couldn’t hit left-handed pitching. For their careers, Curtis Granderson and Lucas Duda have mostly struggled against them. That effectively neutralizes two of the best bats in the lineup. Terry Collins ices a third when he refuses to play Michael Conforto against lefties.
With the Mets injuries and Sandy Alderson remaking the roster on the fly, the Mets now destroy left-handed pitching.
It starts with new (and old) leadoff hitter Jose Reyes. In his career, Reyes has always been a slightly better right-hand hitter than he was a left-hand hitter, but this year the splits are even more pronounced. In 25 games against righties, he is hitting .254/.289/.408. However, in the 17 games against lefties, he is destroying them hitting .342/.419/.605. Each and every game, he sets the pace.
Usually playing across the diamond from Reyes is Wilmer Flores who suddenly turns into Babe Ruth when a lefty is on the mound. Flores has played 44 games against lefties, and he is hitting an astounding .344/.392/.678 with three doubles, nine homers, and 22 RBI. Flores OPS+ against lefties is 176. To put how good that is in perspective, that 176 is better than Paul Goldschmidt‘s and Jose Altuve‘s. Goldschmidt and Altuve currently led their respective leagues in those categories.
Rounding out the infield is Neil Walker who has been a completely different hitter against lefties this season. Walker entered the year hitting .260/.317/.338 against lefties. This year, he is hitting .327/.383/.612 against them. He has more than doubled his homers against lefties this year.
In the outfield, with Juan Lagares going down with injury, the Mets eventually replaced him with Justin Ruggiano. He has been the Mets center fielder when a left-handed pitcher starts a game. In his seven games against lefties, Ruggiano has hit .400/.471/.867, and he had a monster home run against Jaime Garcia:
It’s not a fluke for him either. In his eight year career, Ruggiano is hitting .276/.340/.530 against lefties.
When you add these bats to a lineup that already has Yoenis Cespedes, you have a team that mashes lefties. You have a team that knocks Madison Bumgarner out after five innings. You have an offense that can do anything no matter who is on the mound. You have an offense you believe can go the postseason as the second Wild Card.
Back in 2007, the Mets collapsed in part due to a rash of pitcher injuries. Pedro Martinez missed most of the year following offseason surgery to repair a torn labrum. An injured Orlando Hernandez (El Duque) had to be moved out of the rotation and into the bullpen. With they myriad of injuries, Mike Pelfrey was put in the rotation before he was truly ready. Brian Lawrence made a few poor starts. With the walls crashing in on the Mets and the Phillies gaining on them, the Mets had to turn to Philip Humber.
Humber was the third overall pick in the 2004 draft. In his career, he never lived up to that billing. It could have been that he was damaged goods coming from Rice University, who is well known for abusing pitcher arms. He did have ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction surgery before his major league debut. It could be that he was rushed through the system never being given proper time to develop. It could any single factor or any combination thereof. It could just be that he just wasn’t good enough to be a top line starting pitcher.
He certainly wasn’t on September 27, 2007. His final line was four innings, six hits, five runs, five earned, two walks, no strikeouts, and one home run allowed. Humber did his best to battle that night, but he either wasn’t ready or wasn’t capable of winning a big game like that. The only reason he didn’t take the loss was the Mets staked him to a 4-0 and a 6-2 lead. It would be his last game as a Met as he would be part of the Johan Santana trade. It was also the last day the Mets would have sole possession of first place as the loss would drop them to only one up in the division.
Like in 2007, the starting pitching is dropping like flies. Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, and even Jon Niese have found themselves on the disabled list. Logan Verrett has served as this year’s Lawrence. Robert Gsellman serves as this year’s Pelfrey. However, Lugo isn’t quite this year’s Humber. They really have nothing in common.
Whereas Humber was a high draft pick, Lugo was a 34th round draft pick. While Humber was pushed through the minors without mastering a level, Lugo has performed at each and every level having to prove himself over and over again. During his career, Humber had trouble developing a real outpitch. Conversely, Lugo has a terrific curveball that has already fooled Anthony Rizzo, who is a terrific major league hitter. More importantly, the main difference between Humber and Lugo is Lugo has already had success as a pitcher for the Mets.
In nine appearances as a reliever, Lugo pitched 17.0 innings and had a 2.65 ERA. When injuries forced him to make an unexpected start, Lugo was better than anyone could have imagined. He was not only good, but he was efficient. When Lugo walked off the mound, he had pitched 6.2 innings allowing seven hits, one run, one earned, and one walk with three strikeouts. At a minimum, Lugo has shown everyone he has the capability of being a good and reliable major league pitcher.
During this season, this Mets team has been compared to past Mets teams that have failed. Namely, they have been compared to the 1987, 2001, and 2007 teams. You can go up and down the line and compare different aspects of those teams to this current team. However, those comparisons need to stop with Lugo as everyone should have faith when Lugo steps on the mound.