Musings
If you were to look at the IBWAA ballot, voters are unable to vote for three players which are on the BBWAA ballot. The reason is those players already garnered the necessary 75% to be considered Hall of Famers according to the IBWAA. While I cannot vote for those players like I did for these other four players, I do think it is worthwhile to examine their candidacy especially when they are eligible for Hall of Fame induction.
Tim Raines, LF
Stats: 23 seasons, .294/.385/.425, 430 2B, 113 3B, 170 HR, 980 RBI, 808 SB
Advanced: 69.1 WAR, 42.2 WAR7, 55.6 JAWS
Awards: Silver Slugger, 7X All-Star
Over the span of 23 years, Raines had three different careers. From 1981 – 1987, Raines was the best leadoff hitter in the National League, and perhaps the second greatest leadoff hitter of all time. The problem was during this time frame Raines was overshadowed by his contemporary, Rickey Henderson, who is widely regarded as the best leadoff hitter of all time. Another fact to consider was Raines has been overlooked due to his great years being in Montreal.
From 1988 – 1995, Raines was a solid regular who was still an on base machine. He was still stealing bases, but not at an elite clip like he was earlier in this career. He was a good player you wanted on your team, but he was no longer an All-Star caliber player; certainly not in an era when players were starting to hit for more and more power.
From 1996 – 2002, Raines was a player holding on. First, he was looking to get that ring as a veteran leader for a Yankees team about to start its next dynasty. Next, he was holding on so he could play with his son Tim Raines, Jr. with the Baltimore Orioles.
We can all agree that if Raines career spanned from 1988 – 2002, he would not be a Hall of Famer. In that time frame, he really only had one truly great year in 1992. Other than that, he was a solid player to veteran leader. However, Raines career started much each than that. In reality, his career as an everyday player started in 1981.
From 1981 – 1987, Raines was as good as anyone in baseball. In that seven year stretch, his average season was .310/.396/.448 with 103 runs, 31 doubles, nine triples, nine home runs, 55 RBI, and 72 stolen bases. He would accumulate 38.4 WAR while averaging 5.5 WAR per season. For the sake of comparison, Henderson’s best stretch was arguably from 1982 – 1988. In those seasons, Rickey averaged .289/.399/.447 with 26 doubles, four triples, 16 home runs, 56 RBI, and 86 stolen bases with a 6.7 WAR. Looking at these numbers, we can all agree that Rickey was the better player, but was he that much better during this stretch?
Again, remember that Rickey was not a borderline Hall of Famer. He was a no doubter. Rickey being slightly better than you means you were still a Hall of Fame talent. That is evidenced by Raines having a higher WAR, WAR7, and JAWS than the average Hall of Fame left fielder. Even if you note, Rickey played at a Hall of Fame level much longer than Raines, it does not mean Raines was not a Hall of Famer. It means Raines was the second best leadoff hitter of all time. That deserves induction.
If you are not convinced, here are some other interesting facts. Raines is fifth all-time in stolen bases, and if he was inducted, he would have the best stolen base percentage of anyone inducted into the Hall of Fame. Raines’ 85% success rate is the best in major league baseball history out of anyone with over 312 stolen bases. He is the only player to steal 70 bases in seven consecutive seasons. With that said, you could argue that while he doesn’t have the highest numbers, no one was better at successfully stealing a base than Raines.
Overall, the case is just too strong. Raines is a Hall of Famer, and he should be inducted in his final year of eligibility.
Jeff Bagwell, 1B
Stats: 15 seasons, .297/.408/.540, 448 2B, 32 3B, 449 HR, 1,529 RBI, 202 SB
Advanced: 79.6 WAR, 48.2 JAWS7, 63.9 JAWS
Awards: Gold Glove, 3X Silver Slugger, 4X All Star, 1991 Rookie of the Year, 1994 NL MVP
Part of me understands Bagwell not having gained induction into the Hall of Fame. As someone who closely followed baseball during Bagwell’s playing time, he didn’t seem like one of the best players in baseball let alone someone who would be a Hall of Famer. However, when you look at the numbers, and his career, it is hard to make a case against him.
From 1991 – 2004, Bagwell was an everyday player who averaged 32 homers and 108 RBI with an outstanding 150 OPS+. To put it in perspective, Willie McCovey, a good example of a slugging first baseman, averaged 32 homers and 88 RBI with a 161 OPS+ during the best 11 year stretch of his career. McCovey is an interesting comparison as he had to hit in Candlestick, which like the Astrodome, was a difficult place to hit homers. The difference between the two is McCovey played at a time when it was more difficult to hit homers, and McCovey reached that formerly magic 500 home run threshold. Still, if Bagwell’s career numbers are comparable to the best of McCovey, certainly Bagwell is a Hall of Famer.
However, Bagwell was more than a slugging first baseman. He was a threat on the bases. His 202 stolen bases ranks him 20th among first baseman. Notably, however, none of the 19 ahead of him hit more than 106 homers in their careers. Bagwell’s speed was an interesting dynamic for a first baseman who could also hit 30+ homers in a season. An interesting factoid from Bagwell’s career is that Bagwell actually led the league in scoring on three different occasions. It is all the more remarkable when you consider he spent most of his career hitting in the middle of the lineup.
Moreover, Bagwell has the advanced statistics to garner induction. His WAR is sixth all-time at the position. That puts him ahead of such renown Hall of Famers like the aforementioned McCovey, Harmon Killebrew, and Hank Greenberg. Overall, the only thing that can be used to justify keeping Bagwell out of the Hall of Fame is steroids. However, there is no proof or statement Bagwell used steroids. Absent that, keeping him out of the Hall of Fame is wrong, and therefore, he should be inducted to Cooperstown.
Edgar Martinez, DH
Stats: 18 seasons, .312/.418/.515, 514 2B, 15 3B, 309 HR, 1,261 RBI, 49 SB
Advanced: 68.3 WAR, 43.6 WAR7, 56.0 JAWS
Awards: 5X Silver Slugger, 7X All Star
Let’s start with one common fallacy we are seeing with people who are making cases for Martinez to be inducted into the Hall of Fame. Many will argue Martinez deserves induction because he has a higher batting average than Jackie Robinson, a higher on base percentage than Stan Musial, a higher slugging than Ernie Banks, more doubles than Babe Ruth, more homers than Rogers Hornsby, more RBI than Tony Gwynn, more hits than Joe DiMaggio, and a higher WAR than Yogi Berra. This is a distraction because Edgar Martinez was not a position player like the aforementioned players. Edgar was a DH.
That is not to suggest a DH can’t be inducted into the Hall of Fame. In fact, there are already two that have been inducted. The first was Paul Molitor in 2004, and the second was Frank Thomas in 2014. With there being two DHs already in the Hall of Fame, we have a baseline upon which to judge Martinez’s candidacy. When judging Martinez up against Molitor and Thomas, he falls short.
Thomas accumulated the following advanced stats: 71.0 WAR, 45.2 WAR7, and a 59.5 JAWS. He also had 500 homers. Molitor accumulated a 75.4 WAR, 39.6 WAR7, and a 57.5 JAWS. He also had 3,000 hits, and he was the 1993 World Series MVP.
Looking at Martinez, he falls behind Thomas and Molitor in terms of career WAR and JAWS. Basically, the only argument Martinez would have based upon the advanced statistics is WAR7. However, it is hard to justify enshrinement based upon that one statistic, especially when you consider Martinez didn’t have as long a career, and he didn’t have the magic numbers like Thomas and Molitor.
If you want to expand the numbers, you could start building a better case. You could argue Martinez’s 147 OPS+ and 147 wRC+ was far above Molitor’s 122 OPS+ and 122 wRC+. However, Martinez’s numbers fall well short of Thomas, who put up a 156 OPS+ and a 154 wRC+.
This is important when you consider one of the justifications provided for Martinez’s enshrinement is the supposition that he was the best DH of all-time. However, looking over all of the numbers, he wasn’t. The best DH of all-time was Frank Thomas.
It is hard to say he deserves enshrinement as being somewhere between 2-5 on the all-time list of DH. First, the DH position has only be around since 1973, and for many years Harold Baines was considered the best DH. No one was arguing Baines’ case for induction into the Hall of Fame when he was elected.
The other fallacy argument is DH should be treated as closers, which is another specialty position. It is true that closers are a specialty position, but relievers have been around since there has been baseball. The first professional team was founded in 1869, and Major League Baseball was founded in 1903. Since that time, there have been exactly five relief pitchers inducted into the Hall of Fame. The main reason is the position is seen as a specialist position. Therefore, only the best of the absolute best should be inducted.
Keep in mind, when Lee Smith was first eligible to be inducted he was the all-time saves leader, and he had a 132 OPS+, which was much higher than pitchers who had already been inducted into the Hall of Fame. For example, Tom Seaver, a pitcher who is arguably the best right handed pitcher of all time, had a 127 ERA+. Smith never garnered more than 50.6% of the vote because while he was arguably a great specialist, he did not do enough as a specialist to earn Hall of Fame enshirnement.
That is where I am with Edgar. He was a very good DH, and he was one of the best ever. However, he was not the best DH, nor did he do anything as a DH better than anyone in history. He was just really good at a specialty role. That makes him an all-time Mariner. That makes him an all-time DH. It does not equate to being a Hall of Famer.
With the induction of Mike Piazza and Ken Griffey, Jr. coupled with Alan Trammell having fallen off the ballot, some of the glut that has been there in year’s past is no longer there. Still, there are a number of people on the ballot who are deserving of Hall of Fame induction.
Before addressing who I did and who I did not vote for, it should be noted that I am not one who believes steroids users should be inducted into the Hall of Fame. However, I do believe there needs to be some evidence of usage if you are going to deny someone of a vote. For far too long Piazza was denied induction despite the complete lack of credible evidence against him. This fate has also befallen Jeff Bagwell. And no, my opinion on this did not change with the induction of Bud Selig. One mistake should not beget another.
For example, Jesse Haines is considered one of the worst selections in major league history. However, he is not used as a door to induct any starter with a 200 wins and an ERA above 3.50. If that was the case, David Cone and Dwight Gooden would be kicking themselves over retiring before getting those last six wins.
That is why I typically compare players to the average Hall of Famer at that position. Saying someone is similar to the worst player inducted only serves to reduce the quality of the players inducted. To compare everyone to the best of the best excludes players who had truly remarkable careers. With that said, I compare players to the average with some caveats. First, you should get extra credit for postseason play. Second, you should get extra credit for doing something better than anyone has at that position. Third, winning hardware and awards do matter. Note, I only treat those as bonuses and not detractors.
With that long preamble, here are the players I voted for in last year’s IBWAA balloting. After re-examining the respective cases, I am once again voting for the following players:
Career Stats: 17 seasons, .313/.400/.565, 471 2B, 62 3B, 383 HR, 1,311 RBI, 230 SB
Advanced: 72.6 WAR, 44.6 WAR7, 58.6 JAWS
Awards: 7X Gold Glove, 3X Silver Slugger, 5X All-Star, 1997 NL MVP
While Mark McGwire was generally seen as the test for whether steroids players would be inducted into the Hall of Fame, Walker has been the test case for players that have put up terrific offensive numbers at Coors Field. So far, Walker has been penalized for playing in Coors Field, and many people have disregarded someone who has been one of the best right fielders to every play the game.
In his heyday, Walker was not only an outstanding hitter, he was an outstanding fielder as evidenced by his Gold Gloves. He was one of the most complete players of his generation. Despite that, he is being discounted due to Coors Field where players put up proverbial video game numbers.
Yes, Walker did benefit from playing in Coors Field. In his career, Walker was a .381/.462/.710 hitter. However, it should be noted that on the road for his career, Walker was a 278/.370/.495 hitter. Furthermore, in his six years with the Expos at the beginning of his career, he hit .281/.357/.483. Reggie Jackson, who was a first ballot inductee, was a career .262/.356/.490 hitter. Walker’s road and Expos numbers compare very favorably to Jackson.
With the Jackson comparison, the MVP Award, the Gold Gloves, and the advanced stats, Walker should be inducted into Cooperstown.
Stats: 17 seasons, .290/.356/.500, 560 2B, 47 3B, 377 HR, 1,518 RBI, 94 SB
Advanced: 55.2 WAR, 35.6 WAR7, 45.4 JAWS
Awards: 4X Silver Slugger, 5X All Star, 2000 NL MVP
There are many good reasons not to vote for Kent. He was a corner infielder masquerading as a second baseman. The advanced stats certainly don’t match up to the standard for induction into the Hall of Fame. All of this is very true, but I voted for him anyway.
The reason is Kent is the best slugging second baseman in major league history, and he’s the best hitter at the position next to Rogers Hornsby. Among second baseman, he’s hit the most home runs, fourth most doubles, third highest RBI, and the second highest slugging percentage. When you add the 2000 MVP to the picture, there is enough there to say Kent deserves induction into Cooperstown.
Stats: 20 seasons, 216-146, 3.46 ERA, 83 CG, 22 SHO, 22 SV, 1.137 WHIP, 3,116 K
Advanced: 79.9 WAR, 49.0 WAR7, 64.5 JAWS
Awards: 6X All-Star, 1993 NLCS MVP, 2001 WS MVP
Many could look upon Schilling’s career, and they could lament over a relatively low win total and high ERA. However, that is only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to Schilling.
Looking at Schilling’s advanced numbers, he certainly has done enough to earn induction into the Hall of Fame. His WAR and JAWS are above the average for Hall of Fame pitchers. His 127 ERA+ is the same as Tom Seaver‘s. In terms of more traditional stats, Schilling is in the Top 15 on the career strike out list. He is also has the second best K/BB ratio among players eligible for the Hall of Fame. These numbers alone should warrant induction.
On top of that, Schilling is the definition of a Big Game Pitcher. In his postseason career, Schilling was 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA and a 0.968 WHIP. In the World Series, Schilling was 4-1 with a 2.06 ERA and a 0.896 WHIP. He has won an NLCS MVP and a World Series MVP. He was a key member of three World Series winning clubs. Between his postseason heroics and his regular season dominance, Schilling is a Hall of Famer.
Overall, if we are being honest, the reason Schilling won’t be inducted this year or the upcoming years will be a result of his post-career actions.
Stats: 18 seasons, 270-153, 3.68 ERA, 57 CG, 23 SHO, 1.192 WHIP, 2,813 K
Advanced: 83.0 WAR, 44.5 WAR7, 63.8 JAWS
Awards: 6X Gold Glove, 5X All-Star
At age 39, Mussina finally got to the elusive benchmark of 20 wins in a season. Judging from that year, it appeared he had an extra couple of years left in him to go make a run at 300 like many in his shoes would have. Certainly, with his conditioning and the like, he had at least three years left in him to get it, and if he had, he likely would have been elected into the Hall of Fame without much of a fight.
However, Mussina did not get to that magical number leaving us to examine what was an interesting and a very good career.
To appropriately view Mussina, it needs to be within the context of his era. Mussina not only played during the Steroids Era, but he also pitched in a bandbox like Camden Yards for the majority of his career. It is a huge reason why that despite his relatively high 3.68 ERA for Hall of Fame standards, Mussina has a career 123 ERA+. His 123 ERA+ is the same as Juan Marichal who pitched in a different era, had a career 2.89 ERA, and was a inducted his fourth time on the ballot.
Mussian’s ERA+ is also much higher to first ballot Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan and his 112 ERA+. What is interesting about that is despite being completely different pitchers with very different careers, Mussina and Ryan have similar cases from an advanced stat point of view. Despite having pitched in nine more seasons than Mussina, Ryan actually trails Mussina in career WAR. Ryan also trails Mussina in WAR7 and JAWS.
This is not to diminish Ryan’s career. He was a first ballot Hall of Famer for a reason. He was a 300 game winner with more strikeouts and no-hitters than anyone in baseball history. Despite these tremendous stats, it is arguable that Mussina was a the superior pitcher to Ryan. When you can create a valid argument why someone was a better pitcher than a no-doubt Hall of Famer like Ryan, you belong in the Hall of Fame; and ultimately, that is why Mussina belongs in Cooperstown.
Recent reports indicate that President Elect Donald Trump is considering Bobby Valentine as the United States Ambassador to Japan. If Valentine is indeed selected as the Ambassador to Japan, it would be his second biggest accomplishment. Naturally, his biggest accomplishment was leading the 2000 Mets not only to the postseason, but to the National League Pennant.
As luck would have it, the New York Mets would begin the season in Japan. Valentine’s Opening Day outfield was Rickey Henderson–Darryl Hamilton–Derek Bell. Of that group, only Bell would play in a postseason game for the Mets, and he would be injured in Game One of the NLDS. Henderson would prove to be a malcontent that wanted a new contract, and ultimately, he would be released in May. Hamilton would lose his job in April after suffering a toe injury. This led to the Mets outfield being Benny Agbayani–Jay Payton-Bell for most of the season.
The one thing Agbayani could do was hit. In 2000, he hit .289/.391/.477 with 15 homers and 60 RBI in 119 games. However, he was a terrible fielder who did this in the field during a game that season:
For his part, Payton was one of the heralded players out of Georgia Tech that included Jason Varitek and Nomar Garciaparra. While Payton was once considered on par with them, if not better. As a prospect, Payton’s star would diminish a bit, but he would still become a major league player. In his 2000 rookie season, Payton relatively struggled at the plate hitting .291/.331/.447 with 17 homers and 62 RBI in 149 games.
There was more than that. Valentine also had to help make Todd Zeile an effective first baseman after he spent most of his career as a third baseman. Zeile was of course signed to replace John Olerud, who departed in free agency. While Zeile had a nice season hitting .268/.356/.467 with 22 homers and 79 RBI, his production fell far short of Olerud’s .298/.427/.463, 19 homer run, 96 RBI season. When you consider the drop off defensively from the Gold Glover Olerud to the quickly adapting Zeile, the team was noticeably worse at first base.
The team was also worse at shortstop. While Rey Ordonez never hit for much, he was a Gold Glover at shortstop. The Mets would miss that defense after he broke his left arm trying to get a tag down in May. This led to the Mets trying to get by with Melvin Mora at shortstop, who struggled at the plate and in the field. This led to the ill advised trade for Mike Bordick who would hit .260/.321/.365 in his 56 games as a Met.
In reality, this was all part of a Mets team that was considerably weaker than the 1999 version. Pat Mahomes was nowhere near as good as he was in 1999. In place of well established veterans like Orel Hershiser and Kenny Rogers in the rotation, the Mets had Glendon Rusch and the return of Bobby Jones. However, it should be noted the rotation was one area the Mets were better.
Whereas the 1999 Mets were an offensive juggernaut with a strong bullpen, the 2000 Mets were built on starting pitching. Al Leiter had an improved season making him 1A behind the ace the Mets acquired in the offseason, Mike Hampton. With Rusch and Jones outperforming their expectations, and quite possibly what their rotation counterparts did in 1999, the rotation was one area the Mets were improved.
The rotation along with two terrific players in Mike Piazza and Edgardo Alfonzo, Valentine was able to lead the Mets to the World Series. Valentine was able to do that despite a diminished offense, vastly diminished defense, an overall less talented roster, and some drama (which usually follows Valentine wherever he goes). It was a team that outperformed their Pythagorean win-loss record by six games. It was a team that outperformed expectations.
Making it to the 2000 World Series should be considered Valentine’s biggest accomplishment. That Mets team really had no business making it to the postseason let alone the World Series. It is why that should stand as Valentine’s biggest accomplishment even if he were to be named as President Trump’s choice to be the Ambassador to Japan.
Lets start with the caveat that the non-elite closer bullpen market has yet to fully materialize. Once Kenley Jansen picks his team, it appears as if the market for the next tier of relievers, which includes possible Mets targets in Brad Ziegler and Koji Uehara, will begin to emerge. It is also possible the Mets could trade Jay Bruce or some other players for bullpen help.
With those caveats in mind, there are two issues confronting the Mets bullpen. The first is that many relievers who could help the Mets in 2017 may move out of their price range, especially with Sandy Alderson announcing the team has to reduce its current payroll. The other obvious issue is the Mets have to somehow contend with the possibility that Jeurys Familia may be gone for a significant portion of the season. With that in mind, the Mets may very well have to look internally to fill one or more of the holes in their bullpen.
This begs the question about whether they can do it. Here is a look at some of the options for the 2017 season to determine whether or not the Mets current bullpen issues can be solved internally:
2016 MLB Stats: 1-0, 5.23 ERA, 16 G, 10.1 IP, 1.548 WHIP, 9.6 K/9
2016 MiLB Stats: 2-2, 3.11 ERA, 43 G, 37.2 IP, 1.540 WHIP, 10.8 K/9
In his first season back from Tommy John surgery, the biggest thing that stuck out for Edgin was his loss of velocity. Once, Edgin was a reliever who came out of the bullpen throwing 94 MPH. In 2016, Edgin loss three MPH off his fastball, and as a result, he went from limiting right-handed batters to a .219/.286/.250 batting line in his breakout 2014 season to a .300/.400/.500 batting line in 2016.
It should be noted the numbers from the 2014 and 2016 seasons are both relatively small sample sizes. Additionally, Edgin continued to pitch well against left-handed batters in 2016 limiting them to a .235/.300/.235 batting line. With that Edgin proved he can still be an effective LOOGY out of the pen even with this reduced velocity. If Edgin were to regain that velocity, he can fully take over the role left vacated by Jerry Blevins.
2016 MLB Stats: 0-1, 7.13 ERA, 14 G, GS, 17.2 IP, 1.585 WHIP, 5.6 K/9
2016 MiLB Stats: 9-7, 4.86 ERA, 19 G, 18 GS, 107.1 IP, 1.425 WHIP, 7.9 K/9
Despite Gilmartin being an important part of the Mets 2015 bullpen, the team decided it was better for him to work on being a starting pitcher in AAA rather than him reprising his role as the long man in the bullpen. While he started out well for the 51s, he would eventually begin to suffer some shoulder discomfort, which required a stint on the disabled list, and his stats would suffer from there. It probably didn’t help that the Mets expected him to take cross-country flights and make multiple inning appearances out of the bullpen with three days of rest or less. Ultimately, we have seen Gilmartin be successful in the major leagues out of the bullpen, and accordingly, we should not discount the possibility he will be successful out of the bulllpen again in 2017.
2016 MLB Stats: 5-2, 2.67 ERA, 17 G, 8 GS, 64.0 IP, 1.094 WHIP, 6.3 K/9
2016 MiLB Stats: 3-4, 6.50, 21 G, 14 GS, 73.1 IP, 1.677 WHIP, 7.6 K/9
After Lugo struggled in AAA, he was taken out of the rotation, and he was put in the bullpen. For a guy that can max out his fastball over 95 MPH and has a terrific curveball, it seemed like the best place for him in a Mets organization with plenty of pitching depth. When he first came up to the majors and made Anthony Rizzo look foolish with his curveball, it seemed like Lugo had a home in the bullpen.
However, with the starting pitching injuries mounting, Lugo was thrust into the rotation. With a postseason berth on the line, he combined with fellow rookie Robert Gsellman to pitch extremely well. It is now debatable as to whether or not the bullpen is the best use of Lugo’s talents. It is all the more debatable when you consider the Mets rotation has some injury concerns and is likely going to deal with some innings limits. With that in mind, while Lugo has certainly proven himself to be an effective reliever, he may be best suited to either the fifth spot in the rotation, or starting the year in the AAA rotation and being ready for the first opportunity that arises.
2016 MiLB Stats: 5-3, 3.29 ERA, 56 G, 19 SV, 65.2 IP, 1.203 WHIP, 11.0 K/9
With Sewald not being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, he is now a possibility to be a part of the Mets bullpen in 2017. The issue with Sewald is his stuff is not that impressive with him only topping out in the low 90s with his fastball. However, that overlooks the fact that he has a good slider which he uses as an out pitch, and the fact he rarely walks batters. In his minor league career, he has only walked 59 batters in 258.0 innings pitched.
Another factor to consider is how well he pitched in the Pacific Coast League, which is a hitter’s haven. In the second half of the season, Sewald made 20 appearances going 1-1 with a 1.98 ERA, 10 saves, 0.95 WHIP, and an 11.8 K/9. In looking over his entire minor league career, Sewald has rarely walked batters, has struck out over 10 batters per nine, has had low ERAs, and has consistently been a good closer. With his experience, talent, and the Mets catchers excellent pitch framing, there is every reason to believe Sewald has a legitimate chance to be a good reliever in the major leagues.
2016 MLB Stats: 3-0, 4.70 ERA, 20 G, 15.1 IP, 1.304 WHIP, 14.7 K/9
2016 MiLB Stats: 3-2, 4.11 ERA, 52 G, 57.0 IP, 1.474 WHIP, 12.8 K/9
The Smoker we saw with the Mets was essentially the Smoker that we have seen in his minor league career. Smoker is a one inning reliever who strikes out a lot of batters, but he has reverse splits. Whereas Edgin is a LOOGY, Smoker is somehow a left-handed ROOGY that gets tattooed by left-handed hitting. Another issue for Smoker is he is only good for one inning. Every single outing he was asked to go over one inning by the Mets, he allowed a home run.
Still, there is a place for a pitcher like Smoker in the bullpen. His ability to generate strikeouts at a level as high as he does is rare, and it is very valuable.
2014 Stats: 11-11, 3.54 ERA, 32 G, 32 GS, CG, SHO, 185.1 IP, 1.327 WHIP, 9.1 K/9
With Wheeler missing two seasons, the Mets have already bandied the idea of putting Wheeler and his 96 MPH fastball in the bullpen. On the one hand, it seems like it is a good opportunity for Wheeler to get back to pitching to major league batters while keeping his inning down after missing the past two seasons while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.
There are some issues with Wheeler in the bullpen. The first is he has a tendency to lose the strike zone which is a huge problem for short inning relievers. The second is, as we saw with Jim Henderson, Terry Collins has a tendency to overlook his relievers injury issues and overwork them anyway. The third and final issue is what type of reliever will he be? Is he going to be a multi-inning reliever who will be shut down for a couple of days afterwards, or is he going to be a one inning reliever expected to air it out for one inning.
The answer to that and many other questions will be resolved once the Mets ultimately decide what Wheeler is. Is he someone that can rejoin the rotation, or is he someone forever slated to the bulllpen? At this point, it is hard to know the answer.
Overall, the Mets have plenty of internal options to fill-out their bullpen. Indeed, if they were to use only internal options, it is possible the Mets could build themselves a very good bullpen. However, if the Mets were to purely stick with internal options, it remains possible the Mets may expose their starting rotation by not having pitchers like Gilmartin, Lugo, or Wheeler sufficiently stretched out to start.
Ulimately, the Mets would be wise to use some of their internal options to help build their bullpen in 2017. With that said, the team is still going to need to obtain one or two relievers before the end of the offseason.
Every Mets fan was elated the Mets signed Yoenis Cespedes to a four year $110 million contract. With that contract on the heels of Neil Walker accepting the $17.2 million qualifying offer, it appeared as if the Mets were finally out from under the Madoff disaster, and they were ready to spend like the big market team they were. Turns out we were wrong . . . very wrong.
As the Winter Meetings come to a close, Sandy Alderson met with reporters, and he informed them that the Mets are not only done spending, they actually need to shed payroll before Opening Day.
That’s right. Alderson expects the Mets to be below $150 million before Opening Day. According to Spotrac, a payroll under $150 million would put the Mets in bottom half of payroll in the major leauges. Worse yet, reducing the payroll would actually mean the Mets 2017 payroll will be lower than the Mets year-end 2016 payroll. The payroll will be lower despite the Mets coming off back-to-back postseason appearances, the Mets having twice increased ticket prices, and attendance having gone up each year since 2013. With increased revenues, there is no reason for the Mets to reduce payroll.
Now, payroll isn’t everything. As we saw in 2015, it is possible to compete without having one of the top payrolls in the majors. Ultimately, it is not payroll that wins, it’s talent. Looking over the Mets major league roster, the team still does not have everything it needs to win in 2017.
First and foremost, the bullpen is in disarray. The Mets are likely to lose Jerry Blevins to free agency, and it is likely the team will lose Fernando Salas. Right there, the Mets need to obtain another LOOGY unless you believe Josh Edgin will suddenly find his lost velocity or Josh Smoker‘s entire career of reverse splits will suddenly reverse itself. Morevover, the Mets will need a seventh inning reliever, which is something the team has seemingly always needed in the Sandy Alderson Era. Further compounding the issue is the prospect of a lengthy Jeurys Familia suspension. With all those factors in mind, this team is 2-3 arms short in the bullpen.
Speaking of arms, it is questionable the Mets have enough starting pitching. Yes, the team does seem to have seven starters, but most of them carry question marks and/or innings restrictions. Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Steven Matz are all coming off season ending surgeries. To ask them to make 30 innings and throw over 200 innings may be unrealistic. Both Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo helped pitch the Mets to the postseason last year, but they will likely be on innings restrictions in 2017 meaning if they are in the Opening Day rotation, they will likely need to be shut down by September. Finally, no one can reasonably expect anything from Zack Wheeler after he hasn’t pitched in over two years. With that in mind, the Mets could use a veteran starter who could eat up innings as the fifth starter, and also could serve as the long man in the bullpen once the Mets are ready to hand the reigns to a Gsellman, Lugo, or Wheeler.
The bench could probably use some help as well. Rene Rivera is a nice backup catcher, but he’s better suited on a team that has a catcher who is not as injury prone as Travis d’Arnaud. Arguably, the team could also use another bat for the bench, especially when you consider the battle for the final spot on the bench will be between Ty Kelly and T.J. Rivera. Given Kelly’s switch hitting ability, and Terry Collins‘ apparently fondness for him, it is likely Kelly will win that competition.
Overall, these are a lot of holes to fill. Arguably, being able to trade Bruce will fill one of them, but will it? If the Mets are indeed looking to slash payroll, how could the team take back salary in the deal? Even assuming the Mets can bring back salary in the deal, doesn’t that mean the team will be prevented from adding another player or two in free agency?
Ultimately, that’s the problem. The team’s needs are not likely going to be filled internally unless you believe Wheeler will be a dominant reliever, Sean Gilmartin will return to his 2015 form, Gabriel Ynoa will take a huge stride forward in his development, and Kelly starts improving at 28 years of age. It is nice to hope this will all work out, but as history tells us, it is rare that everything breaks right for a team in one year. No, the gaps will have to be filled by acquiring players, which will cost money.
Unfortunately, the Mets once again seem out of money. It’s getting old, and sooner or later, it is going to cost the Mets a chance at the postseason as it nearly did last year. When the team is raising ticket prices and the fans are still coming to the ballpark, that isn’t alright. It’s about time the Mets start spending to at least address their needs in the offseason.
With the Chicago White Sox and Boston Red Sox setting baseball’s hot stove fully ablaze with a blockbuster with the Red Sox obtaining Chris Sale in exchange for uber prospects in Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech. With this trade, the White Sox have unofficially announced they are rebuilding and are now willing to trade away every piece of value.
What is surprising is that a White Sox team that was under .500 last season actually has a number of good pieces. In fact, they have a number of pieces that would be quite enticing for the New York Mets.
For starters, the White Sox have David Robertson. Robertson is enticing not just because he is a good closer, and the Mets face the possibility of losing Jeurys Familia to a lengthy suspension in 2017. He is also enticing because he pitched very well for Yankees, and has pitched well for the Yankees in the postseason too. A pitcher who can pitch well in pressure situations in New York should always be of interest to the Mets.
The White Sox also have a very good left-handed reliever in Dan Jennings. In 2016, left-handed batters only hit .217/.316/.337 off of him. Overall, Jennings was 4-3 with a 2.08 ERA in 64 appearances. He’s even more attractive as a trade target when you consider he’s under team control until 2020.
Perhaps the most impressive reliever in the White Sox bullpen last year was Nate Jones. Jones made 71 appearances in 2016 going 5-3 with a 2.29 ERA, 0.892 WHIP, and a 10.2 K/9. He is a sinker/slider pitcher that can throw the ball over 97 MPH that would thrive in the Mets organization. He has a reasonable contract going forward with provisions in the deal that protects his team against arm injuries. Overall, he will make $3.95 million in 2017, and he is under contract until 2021.
Offensively speaking, the White Sox have Adam Eaton who is a career .384/.357/.428 hitter who has averaged 28 doubles, nine triples, 10 homers, 50 RBI, and 16 stolen bases a season in his three years as an everyday player. At 27, he is coming off his best offensive season where he hit .284/.362/.428 with 29 doubles, nine triples, 14 homers, 59 RBI, and 14 stolen bases.
In the field, it has been a mixed bag for Eaton. He has averaged a 0 DRS and a -4.7 UZR in center. Best case scenario is he is an average center fielder. More likely, he is below average at the position. Eaton will make $4 million next season, and he has an additional two years $14.4 remaining on his contract. There are reasonable team options for $9.5 million and $10.5 million for the 2020 and 2021 seasons respectively.
Finally, because everyone is interested in the Toms River, NJ native, the White Sox also have Todd Frazier. On a positive note, Frazier has proven that he is able to hit for power away from the Great American Ballpark. In fact, Frazier’s 40 home runs this season were a career high. These home run totals to mask the fact that Frazier is a career .225/.302/.464 hitter who has seen a steady decline in his batting average and OBP over the past three seasons.
Defensively, Frazier has been a good third baseman, but he did have a slight dropoff this season as per UZR and DRS. In addition to third base, Frazier has played some first making him a versatile infielder. That would be important for a Mets team that arguably has injury concerns at every position in the infield. Frazier is third year arbitration eligible, and he will be a free agent in 2018.
Understandably, Mets fans covet one if not all of these players. The issue becomes what are you going to be willing to give up for anyone of these players who not only suits a need for the Mets, but is also cost controlled? Judging from the haul the White Sox obtained in the Sale trade, the team is wisely extracting the most possible value for its players.
While nothing has been reported, it is likely the White Sox would look to obtain players like Michael Conforto, Justin Dunn, Robert Gsellman, Steven Matz, Tomas Nido, Dominic Smith or really any big prospect the Mets have in exchange for any combination of the aforementioned White Sox players. At some point during trade discussions, if they were to take place, the questions is ultimately going to be whether trading a significant part of the future would be worth a player of Robertson’s or Eaton’s caliber.
Last night into today, it has been widely reported that the Washington Nationals have a legitimate chance to obtain Chris Sale from the Chicago White Sox. This would make an already good rotation better with Sale joining reigning Cy Young Max Scherzer and former first overall pick Stephen Strasburg. That lead to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag Sports to posit the Nationals would then have the best rotation in the game if the deal was to be completed.
Naturally, Noah Syndergaard would have something to say on the matter:
I agree to disagree #nopehttps://t.co/OFzfRjIRa7
— Noah Syndergaard (@Noahsyndergaard) December 6, 2016
For what it’s worth, Syndergaard is probably correct in his assessment. For starters, it should be noted that the Mets rotation of Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Steven Matz have pitched the Mets to the World Series when healthy whereas the Nationals have never won a playoff series. Moreover, the Mets starters are more dominating on the mound. Eliminating last year for Harvey (a season he shouldn’t have pitched due to a myriad of medical issues), here are the Mets starters career numbers:
- Harvey: 25-18, 2.53 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 146 ERA+, 2.65 FIP.
- deGrom: 30-22, 2.74 ERA, 1.095 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 138 ERA+, 2.88 FIP.
- Syndergaard: 23-16, 2.89 ERA, 1.103 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 137 ERA+, 2.72 FIP
Looking at the starting pitchers numbers with the Nationals only, and Sale’s numbers with the White Sox, here are the stats for the Nationals possible rotation:
- Scherzer: 34-19, 2.88 ERA, 0.943 WHIP, 11.0 K/9, 141 ERA+, 3.00 FIP
- Strasburg: 69-41, 3.17 ERA, 1.094 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, 124 ERA+, 2.85 FIP
- Sale: 74-50, 3.00 ERA, 1.065 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 135 ERA+, 3.06 FIP
Overall, both staffs have impressive numbers. Looking deeper at FIP, Harvey and Syndergaard rank 1-2 in that category from this group while deGrom a close four. When looking at ERA+, Harvey is at the top once again with Syndergaard second and deGrom a close fourth. Overall, the Mets three starting pitchers are better as a group than the projected Nationals rotation.
It is why when the trio was healthy and pitching together in the same rotation, the Mets went all the way to the World Series. If they are healthy again, the Mets are once again World Series contenders whether or not the Nationals add Sale.
Since the 2014 season ended, Zack Wheeler has thrown exactly zero pitches in the major leagues. First, it was because he needed Tommy John surgery on the eve of the 2015 season. Then, it was because he had a series of setbacks during this rehab from said surgery throughout the 2016 season. With that, the Mets have no idea what they are going to get from Wheeler during the 2017 season.
Here is one thing you do know you are not going to get from him: 200 innings. Asking Wheeler to make 30+ starts and pitch 200 innings is unrealistic, and it is unfair. Realistically speaking, putting any expectations on him is unfair.
Quite possibly, the best thing for Wheeler for the 2017 season is to transition to the bullpen and have the Mets monitor his usage. In essence, the Mets could go into the 2017 season enacting a set of Joba Rules for Wheeler. It is a concept Sandy Alderson floated this offseason saying, “But it may be that coming back after two years, he’s better off pitching out of the ‘pen. He might have to be careful. He might not be able to pitch back-to-back. It might have to be two innings at a time. These are all hypothetical at the moment, but I don’t see any reason to just eliminate the possibility.” (nj.com).
Better put, it is time to give Wheeler the John Smoltz treatment.
Back in 2000, Smoltz had missed the entire season due to season ending surgery because he needed Tommy John surgery. On the Jonah Keri Podcast, Smoltz stated the Atlanta Braves only wanted him to return as a closer, and because he wanted to remain a Brave, he did what was requested of him. During his time as a closer, Smoltz stated he learned about mentally what it meant to close. Notably, Smoltz stated he did not change the way he pitched when he closed games. Smoltz focused on throwing strikes more than maxing out and trying to strike everyone out. It is notable that Smoltz was able to save 55 games in 2001, which was his first season back from Tommy John.
While Wheeler won’t be closing with the presence of Jeurys Familia and Addison Reed, there is room for him in the bullpen. Putting him in the bullpen would permit him to go out there and re-learn how to pitch in one to two inning increments. It will allow him to rebuild himself as a pitcher much in the way Smoltz had done. Wheeler could focus on throwing strikes, which has always been an issue for him, and it will allow him to mentally prepare himself to get those big outs in a game. More importantly, it presents an avenue for Wheeler to help the Mets win the World Series.
What is notable about following the Smoltz model is the fact that Smoltz sees a lot of himself in Wheeler. Previously on MLB Now, Smoltz stated Wheeler was the one pitcher in the major leagues right now that most reminds him of himself. In making the comparison, Smoltz noted some factors including the repetoire and Wheeler’s use of the inverted W. Another factor for the comparison was the player’s respective injury history. The main difference between the two, aside from Smoltz being a Hall of Famer, was Smoltz’s ability to make adjustments and Smoltz’s having pitched out of the bullpen.
As we have seen, pitching out of the bullpen not only helped Smoltz become an important part of the Braves after his rehab, it also helped prolong his career. The Smoltz model is one that has proven to be successful, and it proved it is not a bar to returning to the starting rotation. With that in mind, this could be the preferable route to reintegrating Wheeler onto this Mets team.
Last offseason, the Mets re-signing Yoenis Cespedes put the final touches on the team everyone hoped would compete for a World Series. This year, the re-signing of Cespedes is really just a start for a team that still needs to make a number of moves this offseason. Here is a look at the moves the Mets still need to make:
TRADE JAY BRUCE
With Cespedes back, Jay Bruce likely becomes the outfielder the Mets will trade this offseason. In his nine year career, Bruce has been a .248/.318/.467 hitter who has averaged 27 homers and 82 RBI. At $13 million next season, that production is arguably a bargain. That is probably a reason why teams have been in contact with the Mets trying to inquire what the team will want in exchange for Bruce. While it is hard to believe the Mets will be able to bring in a prospect like Dilson Herrera or a player that will have a similar impact that Bruce will have in 2017, it should not be ruled out that the Mets will be able to acquire a player of consequence that will help the team next season.
DETERMINE MICHAEL CONFORTO’S POSITION
If the Mets are going to trade Bruce, it is another sign that the Mets see Michael Conforto as an everyday player. Where he will be an everyday player remains to be seen. With Cespedes returning for four years with a no trade clause, the only thing we know is that Conforto will not be the teams everyday left fielder anytime soon. That leaves center and right field.
During Conforto’s time in AAA last year, he began learning both positions. In his limited time in the majors at both positions, he showed he may very well be able to handle either position on an everyday basis. However, given the presence of Juan Lagares on this team, the best thing for Conforto and the Mets is to transition him to right field. Let him get fully acclimated there and focus on getting back to where he was April of last year. This will also let Lagares and Curtis Granderson handle center field duties next season, which was a platoon that may work very well for the Mets next year.
OBTAIN A LOOGY
Last year, Jerry Blevins had a terrific year out of the bullpen for the Mets as a LOOGY. In fact, he proved to be a bit more as he had a career best year pitching against right-handed batters. However, he is a free agent now, and the Mets do not appear as if they are able or inclined to give him the multi-year deal that he may command in free agency.
The internal left-handed options are Josh Edgin and Josh Smoker. Edgin did have some success against left-handed batters in limited duty in the majors last year, but with his velocity still not having fully returned after his Tommy John surgery, it is hard to rely upon him in any capacity next year. Smoker had outstanding strikeout rates in the minors and the majors last year, but he has reverse splits. Therefore, the Mets are going to have to look outside the organization to figure out who will be the first lefty out of the pen next season.
OBTAIN ONE OR MORE LATE INNING RELIEVERS
The Mets bullpen really is in a state of flux at the moment due to the Jeurys Familia domestic violence arrest. Pending an investigation by MLB, it is possible that Familia will miss a significant number of games next season. If that is the case, Addison Reed should prove more than capable of closing games in Familia’s absence. This begs the question of who will step up and take over Reed’s role in the short term.
It was a question the Mets faced most of 2016, and they did not find a good answer until they obtained Fernando Salas on the eve of the waiver trade deadline. Given his late inning and closing experience, Salas would be a good option to pitch in the seventh, eighth, or ninth inning next year. However, he is a free agent at the moment meaning the Mets are going to have to presumably sign or trade for someone to take over this role. In fact, the Mets may very well need two late inning relievers to address the bullpen.
SIGN A VETERAN STARTER
The one lesson learned from the 2016 season should be that once again you can never have too much pitching. With the return of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Steven Matz, the Mets rotation is almost complete. The question is who will become the team’s fifth starter.
The first name that will be mentioned is Zack Wheeler. However, after missing all of 2015 and 2016, no one can be quite certain he is ready and able to assume the fifth starter’s role. The next names that will be mentioned are Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman. Both pitched quite well for the Mets in the stretch run last year, but the Mets may prefer to have a veteran arm who is able to eat up innings and/or can go deeper into the season than any of the aforementioned pitchers. Preferably, the pitcher they do sign would be willing to move to the bullpen in the event Wheeler, Lugo, or Gsellman wins the job in Spring Training or is ready to take over at some point during the season.
FIGURE OUT THE BACK-UP CATCHER SITUATION
Even with Rene Rivera back in the fold and despite his excellent work with Noah Syndergaard, there is still room for improvement on the catching front. Many will mention the recently non-tendered Wellington Castillo, but people should realize he’s an average hitter at best. Moreover, he’s a terrible pitch framer. Mets need to do better than that, but to be fair, that may not be possible.
Whatever the Mets decide to do, they first have to realize that Kevin Plawecki has twice proven he should not be relied upon to be the team’s primary back-up catcher. Next, the Mets have to realize they need a viable backup who can handle playing a number of games due to Travis d’Arnaud‘s injury history.
There are some other matters that need to be figured out as well. For example, do you want Ty Kelly and T.J. Rivera competing for the last spot on the bench, or do you want to re-sign Kelly Johnson? The answer to this and many other questions will largely depend on how much money the Mets have to spend the offseason and/or what the Mets are able to obtain in exchange for Bruce.
Cespedes was a great start to the offseason, but the Mets work is far from over.
‘Tis the seaosn where the Mets name the player who is going to be the one who plays Santa Claus at the Holiday Christmas Party. This year the Mets went with the player who is quickly becoming the ace of the staff, the face of the franchise, and one of the more beloved Mets on the team – Noah Syndergaard.
The Mets should not go with Syndergaard to play Santa Claus this year. No, it has nothing to do with the thought of Santa Thor throwing pieces of coal at naughty kids and Mr. Met who are standing 60’6″ away. It has nothing to do with the idea of seeing Santa Thor wear a viking helmet instead of a red cap. It has nothing to do with Santa Thor going with the Yule Lads interpretation of Christmas instead of our traditional Santa Clause. It also has nothing to do with the Santa Curse that claimed Steven Matz as one of its victims last year:
https://twitter.com/jareddiamond/status/676775981588287488/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Look if anyone can pull a Daniel Murphy and beat the curse, it is certainly Santa Thor.
No, the real reason why Syndergaard shouldn’t play Santa Thor is because he is the one player that all kids are going to want to meet.
Santa is a celebrity in his own right, and you can have literally anyone play him on the team, and the kids will love him. Naturally, you don’t want to pick Travis d’Arnaud because that’s just begging for trouble. However, there is no reason you can’t pick a lesser player like a Ty Kelly or a Josh Edgin to play Santa. Heck, you can even choose Jay Horowitz for what it’s worth.
By doing that, you allow the kids to get to meet Santa and Syndergaard. They get to meet both of their heroes from the artcic north, and it will make for a much better story and Christmas for each and every one of those children. For that reason, and yes the Santa Curse (knock on every piece of wood withing a three mile radius), Syndergaard should not play Santa Thor this year.