Musings
On a cold and blustery Christmas Eve night at Citi Field, faithful manager Terry Collins enters Fred Wilpon’s office.
Terry: I just wanted to stop on my way out to wish you and your family a happy holiday, and I just wanted to let you know I look forward to working with you and Sandy to help build a Mets team that can go to the World Series again.
Fred: What do you mean build?
Terry: Well, there are a few areas I was hoping to address. With Fernando Salas and Jerry Blevins free agents, we need a couple of relievers in the bullpen, and –
Fred: Relievers? I just gave you two guys last week!
Terry: I know, but those were minor league deals.
Fred: I don’t get it. After Madoff, I’ve done all I could do to get my money back, and now everyone wants me to just give it away.
Terry: Well, we do owe the fans.
Fred: Seriously?
Terry: Well, I guess not. Anyway, happy holidays, and I look forward to next season.
Fred: Bah!
Not long after Terry leaves, Fred Wilpon leaves Citi Field, and he begins his drive to Greenwich. He pulls up to a stately manor that hasn’t been renovated since 2008. He makes his way into the bedroom, and before he can turn on the lights, he hears a ghostly whisper coming from behind him. It sounds like his name, but he initially can’t quite make it out. Suddenly, as if out of nowhere a figure emerges.
Fred: No, it can’t be. Is that really you?
M. Donald Grant: It is.
Fred: But, you’re dead. How? How?
M. Donald Grant: I’ve come here to deliver a message.
Fred: What?
M. Donald Grant: Remember when I was alive, I won a World Series, and then I refused pay raises to everyone. Remember when I shipped Tom Seaver and everyone of value out of town?
Fred: All while keeping the team profitable!
M. Donald Grant: Yup, I mean no. No! I was wrong, and now I have to watch the 1962 Mets over and over again. But worse, I have to give the players raises after each and every game despite no one coming to the ballpark!
Fred: The horror.
M. Donald Grant: And if you don’t change, your fate will be worse than mine.
Fred: No . . . NO! . . . You’ve got to save me.
M. Donald Grant: Tonight, you will be visited by three spirits. Listen to them! Do what they say! Or you will be cursed for eternity.
And with that the apparition of Grant faded away leaving Fred frightened in his room. A few times he splashed cold water on his face and pinched himself to make sure he wasn’t dreaming. Still shaken, Fred made his way to bed. After a while, his fatigue got the better of his anxiety, and he faded to sleep. Then there was a loud noise like the roar of the crowd. It jostled Fred from his sleep. Still groggy, he looked out and couldn’t believe the figure before him.
Fred: No, it can’t be. Is it really you Gary?
Before Fred was Hall of Fame catcher Gary Carter. Back in 1985, when Fred had just a small interest in the team, the Mets traded for Carter in the hopes that he would put the Mets over the top. Eventually, Carter did with the Mets winning the 1986 World Series. Notably, Carter started the game winning two out rally in the bottom of the 10th to allow the Mets to force a Game 7.
Gary: It’s really me Fred. I’m now the Ghost of Baseball Past.
Fred: Am I dead?
Gary: No, you’re not. I’m here to show you what things used to be like before you changed the way you did business with the Mets.
With that Gary, took a swing of the bat creating a cloud of dust and smoke all over the room. As the dust settled, the Mets found themselves back in a sold out Shea Stadium.
Fred: What a dump!
Gary: You didn’t always think so. In fact, you used to love coming here. Back in the 80s, Shea Stadium was the place to be. Those Mets teams were stacked with players like me, Keith Hernandez, Darryl Strawberry, and tonight’s starter Dwight Gooden.
Fred: Those Gooden starts were something special. No one could beat us then, and we knew it. We never could quite capture the magic from those teams again, but that was something special.
Gary: This is how things used to be. It was always this way. You did it again when you signed Mike Piazza, except you didn’t just sign him. You surrounded him with good players like Robin Ventura and Edgardo Alfonzo. That team came close. You did it again with Carlos Beltran. You spent the extra dollar to get a truly great player. You then added players like Carlos Delgado and Johan Santana to try to get it done. It didn’t work, but the fans came. More importantly, everyone respected you for it.
Fred: But they don’t understand.
Gary: Let’s see what happened next.
With a blink of Fred’s eye, Shea Stadium is just a memory. As he reopens his eyes, he is back in Citi Field as it was before it was fully renovated. The fans were angry with the team. It was one thing that the ballpark didn’t fully honor Mets history; it was another that the Mets let Jose Reyes walk in the offseason without so much as an offer. It was an uninspiring 88 loss win team that was seemingly going nowhere.
Fred: When did we put the Great Wall of Flushing back in? Where are all the fans?
Gary: You didn’t. It’s 2012.
Fred: That was an ugly time. Fans constantly complaining and booing. The team and I were personally cash strapped. I had no idea what our future was or could be. Worse yet, no one seemed to understand. The fans, the players, the press. No one. The whole thought of this time is just too much to bear. I can’t . . .
Before Fred could finish the sentence, he was hit in the head by a foul ball off the bat of Daniel Murphy. Next thing Fred knew, he was awake, with a headache back in his bed in Greenwich.
Fred: Man, I really have to lay off the Shake Shack late at night. It gives me the strangest dreams. And man, just remembering those days just gives me a headache. I never want to get back to that point . . .
As the words left Fred’s lips, there was a strange noise. Fred looked over, and he sees beloved former announcer and Hall of Famer Ralph Kiner in what appears to be old set of Kiner’s Korner.
Fred: Ralph?
Ralph: Well hi everybody it’s Ralph Kiner, the Ghost of Christmas Present, on Kiner’s Korner. Well the Mets are in the middle of the offseason after the team failed to win the Wild Card Game. While the team acted quickly and brought back Neil Walker and Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets offseason has been marked by inactivity. Recently, Mets General Manager Sandy Alderson stated the Mets were going to have to move a contract like Jay Bruce or Curtis Granderson before they could sign additional players this offseason. We have Mets owner Fred Wilpon on to talk about it next.
Fred: Ralph?
Ralph: Welcome back to Kiner’s Korners. As you know Kiner’s Koners is sponsored by Rheingold – the Dry Beer!
Ralph: Hi Mr. Wilpon, welcome to Kiner’s Korners.
Fred: I’m not sure what exactly is happening here.
Ralph: Well, Mr. Wilpon, we’re here to talk about your team and what the 2017 roster will look like.
Fred: We’ve given Sandy free reign to do whatever he needs to do to put the best team on the field. We trust in his decision making, and we always demure to him on personnel decisions.
Ralph: Well Mr. Wilpon, there are not many that believe you. In fact, the fans will say that the team isn’t going to spend the money on the players like the Mets should. It reminds me back when I had won another home run title for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and I went to Branch Rickey to ask for a raise. During the meeting, Rickey denied me a raise saying, “We finished eighth with you, we can finish eighth without you.” From there of course, I was then traded to the Chicago Cubs. This is the same Chicago Cubs franchise that won their first World Series title since 1908. The Cubs were once defeated –
Fred: Okay, okay. No, we’re not spending any money until we move a contract. That’s just the way things work now. This isn’t the old days where Omar gets free reign.
Ralph: Well, the fans are angry the team isn’t spending money. And I remember as a player how much the team wanted to know the owner supported them. When the team had the support of ownership it had an effect in the clubhouse and the play on the field.
Fred: Let’s be honest. The fans will let me do whatever I want so long as we’re winning. With the team we have now, we’re going to fill the seats because we have Cespedes. We have free t-shirts. We get to hype up the starts of not just Matt Harvey, but also Noah Syndergaard. As for the players, the only thing they really care about is their salary.
Ralph: That’s not true. Here is a videotape of your captain David Wright.
A large screen appears on the set of Kiner’s Korner with an image of Wright at his home talking to Collins about the upcoming season.
Collins: I know it may be a little late, but I wanted to wish you and your family a Merry Christmas. And I wanted to let you know that we’re all pulling for you to get back out on that field.
David: It’s hard skip. I wake up in pain everyday. It was bad enough when it was just the stenosis, but now it is my neck too. I just spend all of my day rehabbing and working out. I do all these special exercises for my back and my neck. It’s almost 24 hours of pure hell. It’s made all the harder by the fact that every minute I spend working out is time away from my wife and daughter. Baseball has always been a sacrifice, and I love it. But it just gets harder and harder.
Collins: You know the whole team is behind you. If there is anything you ever need, you just have to ask. And if you feel as if you can’t go on, you’ll always have a place on my staff.
David: I can’t hang ’em up. Not yet. Not with this team. We’re so close. I’ve come so close to the World Series a few times in my career, and I’ve fallen short. I don’t know if I’ll ever feel right hanging it up without winning one.
Fred: This is costing me $20 million a year.
David: And it’s not just about me. I owe a World Series to Mets fans who have supported me my whole career. They’ve gone out and bought my jerseys. They’ve cheered for me. They’ve always been there for me. And more importantly, I owe it to the Wilpon family. I saw what happened with Reyes and the other players who left. They decided to keep me. They made me the face of the franchise and the team captain. I’ve loved being a Met, and the Wilpons made that possible.
Fred: I just never knew how much he cared and how appreciative he was.
Ralph: Time for another commercial break and word from our sponsor the Ghost of Christmas Future.
Everything turns to black like a television screen being turned off. At first, Fred sits there quietly unsure of what is happening. He then finds himself in a strange room with Darryl Hamilton wearing his black Mets jersey. The same jerseys the Wilpons wanted to help drum up fan interest and help increase revenues. At first, Hamilton says nothing. He just looks at Fred before gesturing for Fred to follow him.
Fred follows Darryl down a hallway. Eventually, an image of a badly beaten down Wright emerges. On the walls are different jerseys he wore in his career. A shelf displays all of his awards and his 2015 National League Pennant ring. Wright moves around the room but with great difficulty. Although still relatively young, he moves like an old man. He’s there with another person.
Woman: Look, this is not going to happen overnight. With the beating your body has taken you’re luck you’re even in position to walk.
David: I don’t care. I need you to get me to the point where I can dance again. There is nothing that is going to stop me from dancing at my daughter’s wedding.
Woman: Ok, but we need to take it slowly. You’ve had a number of injuries in your career, especially those last few. Doing things like dancing is going to come with some difficulty for you. The trick is to build everything up so you can do it again.
Fred: What, what happened to him?
Darryl only nods his head in the direction of the trophy case.
Fred: He never won? But we had Harvey and Syndergaard. We had Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz. We had Cespedes. Of course we won at least one. There is no way we let that core go without winning a World Series. Surely, we made a move to get that final piece at least one of those years.
David: On cold days like this, it really makes me wonder how wise it was sticking to the end of my contract rather than just medically retiring the way Albert Belle and Prince Fielder did. I really wonder if Prince has the same problems I have. Still, I would do it all over again because trying to win that ring was important not just for my career, the fans, and Fred.
Woman: What happened?
David: We were so close, but we shot ourselves in the foot in 2015. After that, we always just seemed one or two players short. We gave it the best we could, but it just wasn’t meant to be . . . .
As David drifts off, Darryl gestures for Fred to re-enter the dark hallway. The two make their way down before standing outside the Rotunda entrance to Citi Field. Nearby is a group of men putting up a few statues. In the parking lot adjacent to 126th Street, there are a number of moving vans.
Worker 1: Honestly, it is about time there was a Tom Seaver statue erected at Citi Field. I think adding the Piazza one as well was a nice touch.
Worker 2: Things have been a lot better around here with the new guys came in.
Worker 1: And ain’t no one going to miss the old group.
Worker 2: How can you? They let the whole thing fall apart.
Worker 1: Good riddance!
Fred: What is happening here? What old group? Who authorized these statues?
With that Fred began a dead sprint towards the entrance to the executive offices, but he was distracted by a commotion happening at McFadden’s. Despite wanting to get back to his office, Fred found himself drawn to the bar where he found a group of people in celebration.
Man: Shhh! It’s about to be on the television.
Reporter: After years of seeing homegrown players sign elsewhere, and the Mets having been inactive on the free agent market, Citi Field has become eerily reminiscent of Grant’s Tomb in the 1970s. With fan interest at a nadir and record low revenues for the team, it became time for a change.
Fred: Darryl! What are they talking about?
Man: This is a dream come true for me. As a little boy sitting int he Upper Deck at Shea Stadium, I never imagined I would be in the position I am here today. And yet, here I am.
Cheers spread through McFaddens making the sound from the televisions inaudible.
Man: Back in 1980, the late Nelson Doubleday purchased the New York Mets from the Payson family. From that day, a new era of Mets prosperity began with ownership investing not just in good baseball people, but also its players and its fans. My pledge to the Mets fans is to operate this club much in the same fashion as Mr. Doubleday, and with that, a new era of Mets prominence will begin.
As cheers fill the room and the bartenders try to keep up with the customers needing drinks, a bewildered Fred turns back to Darryl.
Fred: Darryl, what is happening with my team? Was it . . .
As Fred trails off, he can see a sullen Jeff Wilpon standing out on the sidewalk waiting for a driver to take him home. Before Jeff could get into the car, he is ambushed by a group of reporters. Instinctively, Jeff runs out to assist his son.
Reporter: How do you feel today?
Jeff: How do you expect me to feel? The thing that mattered most to my father is now gone.
Reporter: What message do you have for Mets fans?
Jeff: I’m not sure where you guys have been all these years. If you came to the park, we might’ve been able to improve the team and prevent this day from happening.
Fred: Jeff, don’t tell me you did it! Don’t tell me you sold my team!
Reporter: How do you think your father would feel about this moment?
Jeff: Look guys, it’s been a hard day in what has been a hard few years. I just want to go home to my family.
Fred: Jeff! Jeff! I’m over here! Jeff!
With Jeff being worn down by the questioning, and his being unable to hear his father scream, he enters the car. Initially, Fred heads toward Jeff while repeatedly asking him what happened with the Mets. With Jeff being unresponsive, and with Fred knowing he’s not going to be able to get to the door in time, he runs in front of the car in an attempt to stop it. The car pulls from the curb, makes contact with Fred, and everything goes black.
The sun begins to rise, and it begins to light Fred’s room in Greenwich. The sun shines in Fred’s eyes causing him to initially squint. When he realizes that a new day has begun, Fred eagerly jumps from his bed, and he checks his iPhone.
Fred: It’s December 25, 2016! I still own the team! The spirits have given me another chance!
Fred grabs his phone, and he calls his secretary to immediately set up a conference call with Collins, Alderson, and Wright.
Fred: I’m sorry to bother you on Christmas morning, but I felt like this couldn’t wait any longer. We have a window here, and we have to take advantage of it. Sandy, the shackles are off. You have everything you need at your disposal. We owe Terry the best team possible for him to lead the Mets back to the World Series. And we owe it to you David because you stuck by us when times were at their lowest. We can’t let you finish your career without winning a World Series. It wouldn’t be fair, and it wouldn’t be right.
Terry: Thank you, and God bless you Mr. Wilpon!
David: God bless us everyone!
Ken Rosenthal’s recent reported for Fox Sports the Mets are interested in pursuing a center field upgrade for the 2017 season. At this point in the offseason, we have a general idea of the centerfielders that are available in trades. The Pittsburgh Pirates are known to be willing to move Andrew McCutchen for a king’s ransom. The Kansas City Royals are willing to move both Lorenzo Cain and Jarrod Dyson. And while the Colorado Rockies have steadfastly maintained he is not available, many assume the Ian Desmond signing could possibly make Charlie Blackmon available.
There are debates to be had on each of the aforementioned players. McCutchen is coming off a career worst year, and he has rated as one of the worst center fielders in baseball over the past three seasons. Dyson may be nothing more than a left-handed hitting Juan Lagares. Cain has his injury issues. Then there is Blackmon.
The 2016 Blackmon was one of the best center fielders in all of baseball. In 143 games, Blackmon hit .324/.381/.552 with 111 runs, 35 doubles, five triples, 29 homers, 82 RBI, and 17 stolen bases. His oWAR was the highest of any outfielder in the National League. That is all the more impressive when you consider that means he rated better than bona fide superstars like Yoenis Cespedes and Bryce Harper. He had the highest wRC+ out of any center fielder in baseball not named Mike Trout. With stats like these, Blackmon quite justifiably won his first ever Silver Slugger.
With the Nationals giving up a massive haul of prospects to acquire Adam Eaton from the Chicago White Sox, you could imagine what teams would be willing to offer for Blackmon. Offering up such a haul could be a very costly mistake.
The 2016 season was Blackmon’s third season as a starter for the Rockies. In the prior two seasons combined, Blackmon was a .287/.341/.445 hitter who averaged 88 runs, 29 doubles, six triples, 18 homers, 65 RBI, and 36 stolen bases. Putting the sometimes overstated Coors Field effect aside, that’s a pretty good player. Still, is that the type of player that is worth giving up a massive haul of prospects? Maybe, if he brings real value to a team as a defensive center fielder.
He doesn’t. Over the past three seasons, Blackmon has averaged a -3 DRS and a -6.6 UZR in center field. In essence, Blackmon is below average in center field. Now, it is difficult to play center field in Coors Field. However, the same could be said for playing center field at Citi Field. Since the ballpark has been opened, Lagares is the only center fielder who has played over a thousand innings in a season that has posted a positive DRS and UZR for the Mets. Therefore, expecting an improvement in center for Blackmon due to a change in ballpark would be folly.
Even assuming Blackmon would be a better fielder, would his improvement as a defender offset what would likely be a reduction in his offensive numbers?
Over time, there has been a noted Coors Field effect on players where we see drastic home/road splits. Blackmon is no different. In his career, he has been a .334/.389/.511 hitter at home and a .261/.305/.422 hitter on the road. That should give any team pause, especially the Mets with Blackmon hitting .219/.254/.375 in 18 career games at Citi Field. The obvious caveat there is sample size and his having to fact the Mets pitchers. Despite that, there is every reason to believe Blackmon would regress offensively away from Coors Field, especially when we see most hitters regress after leaving Coors Field.
For example, in Matt Holliday‘s career he is a .361/.427/.656 hitter at Coors Field. In his last three years as a Rockie, he hit .329/.400/.579 while averaging 44 doubles, four triples, 32 homers, and 113 RBI a season. In his three seasons after leaving the Rockies, Holliday became a .308/.391/.524 hitter who averaged 40 doubles, one triple, 25 homers, and 96 RBI a season. While Holliday was still a very good hitter after leaving the Rockies, he was no longer the same offensive player.
The obvious counter-point to Holliday is Dexter Fowler, who is a career .298/.396/.490 hitter at Coors Field. As a Rockie, Fowler was a .270/.365/.423 hitter who averaged 24 homers, 11 triples, eight homers, and 42 RBI as a regular. Since leaving the Rockies, Fowler has been a .266/.369/.419 hitter who averaged 25 doubles, six triples, 13 homers, and 43 RBI. Arguably, Fowler has not experienced a drop off in his offensive production since leaving the Rockies. However, it should be noted that unlike Holliday, Fowler has played in Minute Maid Park and Wrigley Field, two ballparks that traditionally favor hitters.
Even with the outfield walls being reconfigured, Citi Field is still not a hitter’s park. In that respect, it is likely Blackmon sees a regression similar to the one Holliday experienced playing in O.co Coliseum and Busch Stadium. In addition to the Coors Field regression, we may likely see a regression in Blackmon’s numbers from the 2016 season as much of his offensive production was fueled by a .350 BABIP, which is 27 points higher than his career mark entering this year. It is also hard to believe Blackmon will build off his 2016 season with him turning 31 next July.
Ultimately, it is quite likely he regresses in 2017 at the plate whether or not he is playing in Coors Field. Moreover, given the advanced data and his getting older, it is a real debate how much longer Blackmon should play in center field. With these red flags, and what a possible prospect cost would likely be, the Mets should not look to trade for Blackmon.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online
Typically, speaking when fans are frustrated during the offseason it would indicate their team has been largely inactive. After a “flurry” of early activity that included Neil Walker accepting the qualifying offer and Yoenis Cespedes signing a four year deal that team has been the Mets.
The frustrating reason why the Mets have been inactive is they have been unable to move Jay Bruce or even Curtis Granderson this offseason.
When the Cubs traded away Jorge Soler before signing Koji Uehara, I was almost led to believe that a team could not sign a free agent reliever until they traded away an outfielder. Given the relative inactivity on all free agents this offseason, it seemed like this was a bizarre and strange wrinkle added to the newly ratified Collective Bargaining Agreement. Alas, when the Marlins signed Junichi Tazawa and Brad Ziegler it proved a team can sign a reliever without trading an outfielder.
That’s what makes this offseason so frustrating. The Mets are letting Bruce and/or Granderson hold their entire offseason hostage while players who can very well help them are going to other teams. Once again, the Mets have signaled they are not quite willing to spend. They are not willing to spend like a team in New York. They are not willing to spend like a team on the cusp of the World Series. Instead, this team is actually looking to cut payroll from its current levels before making another move.
Somewhere, someone is saying that spending doesn’t guarantee a World Series. That person is largely correct. However, this point also neglects the Chicago Cubs, a team that just went to the NLCS, went out last offseason and signed Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, and Jon Lester. The team also took on Aroldis Chapman‘s salary because they needed a closer heading into the offseason. No, the money didn’t guarantee the Cubs the World Series, but the money spent helped them win the World Series. By the way, Zobrist was the World Series MVP.
Somewhere else is a fan urging patience. Admittedly, Chapman and Kenley Jansen making late decisions held up most of the free agent market. This in turn led to a late and slow developing market for the next tier of relievers. However, those relievers are now coming off the board, and the Mets were not really in the discussion for any of them. In reality, the Mets aren’t going to be contenders for any relievers if they are looking to hand out cheap one year deals.
This means a player like Fernando Salas, who was very good for the Mets last year, may very well find himself playing for another team without receiving a competitive offer from the Mets. That really is unacceptable.
Lastly, there is someone saying that signing a reliever now would really hurt Bruce’s trade market. This is of course nonsense because Bruce obliterated much of the trade market by hitting .219/.294/.391 with the Mets. That market took another hit when the Mets re-signed Cespedes. It took yet another hit when Sandy said the Mets had to trade him before making another deal. Essentially, the Mets have forfeited whatever little leverage they had in trade discussions. How can the team re-signing Salas hurt Bruce’s market any more than it has?
Overall, the fact is the Mets are going to eventually be able to move Bruce. Once players like Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and even Mark Trumbo sign, there are going to be teams interested in Bruce. However, how long is that going to take in what has been a really slow developing free agent market on almost all fronts? What players that can help the Mets are still going to be available in free agency?
The likelihood is players that would be willing to sign with the Mets are going to be elsewhere which makes this inactivity all the more frustrating. The team has real needs in the bullpen, and they need to address them now especially with the prospect of losing Jeurys Familia for 30 games.
Ultimately, it is time the Mets act like an even mid-sized market team and get the players it needs to compete for a World Series next season. This isn’t a matter of going out there and giving Jerry Blevins a five year deal for the sake of making a move. It is a matter of letting a pitcher like Ziegler go to an in-division rival on a reasonable contract. That’s an error created by the Mets not having the resources they need to compete.
It’s a shame too because with one or two moves this team could have been drastically better.
In my opinion, the players that used steroids do not belong in the Hall of Fame. That is why when I have submitted my IBWAA ballots I have not voted for Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, or anyone else that has been confirmed to have used steroids. It is a reason why I did not vote for Manny Ramirez this year.
Where things become tricky is when a player has nothing but mere accusations against them. In reality, it is unfair to use one person’s innuendo or unfounded claims to prevent players like Mike Piazza or Jeff Bagwell from being inducted into the Hall of Fame. For all we know, these players did it the right way, and with that, they deserved to be treated as such. For their part, both players have steadfastly stated they did not use steroids, and in reality, no one has presented any evidence to disprove their statements.
Now, based upon my thoughts on Piazza or Bagwell, it can be reasonably argued I should have voted for Ivan Rodriguez. I didn’t because there was enough there for me to withhold my vote.
The first time we really heard that Pudge was a steroids user was when Jose Canseco published Juiced. Juiced was more than a tell-all autobiography. The book also served as Canseco’s opportunity to name players he knew used steroids. At the time, it seemed like retribution against everyone for Canseco’s own belief that he was blackballed from baseball. In the book, Canseco named the following players as known or suspected PED users:
- Bret Boone
- Barry Bonds
- Sammy Sosa
- Mark McGwire
- Rafael Palmeiro
- Juan Gonzalez
- Jason Giambi
- Wilson Alvarez
- Ozzie Canseco
- Dave Martinez
- Tony Saunders
- Miguel Tejada
- Magglio Ordonez
As we know Palmeiro, Clemens, and Gonzalez were named in the Mitchell Report. Bonds usage was discovered in conjunction with BALCO. Tejada and Sosa tested positive for PEDs. Ozzie Canseco has been charged with steroids possession. McGwire and Giambi have since admitted to using steroids during his career.
We do not have any confirmation with respect to Boone, Alvarez, Martinez, and Saunders. Not surprisingly, each of these players have denied using steroids.
The first thing to note with respect to the players Canseco accused of using steroids, he has largely been proven right. With respect to those players there is no outside confirmation of steroids usage, it is important to note, they all denied using steroids. It should also be noted Pudge denied using steroids when implicated by Canseco.
However, when he had his next chance to do so, he didn’t.
Back in 2003, Major League Baseball had anonymous survey steroid testing. The goal of the testing was to see if baseball truly needed a steroids testing policy. As we all know the results of the testing proved there was a steroids problem in baseball. Now, the results of that test were supposed to be anonymous, but many people were implicated as a result.
There were players like David Ortiz and Alex Rodriguez whose named were eventually leaked to the press. Then there were players like Pudge who everyone automatically just assumed tested positive.
For many, Pudge’s sudden weight loss between the 2004 and 2005 seasons was indication he had been using steroids before testing was implemented, and now with testing in place, he was no longer going to use steroids. That in and of itself is not sufficient to prove he was a steroids user. Frankly, if that was all that was there, he should be elected into the Hall of Fame. However, there is one issue associated with the testing and his weight loss that gives you pause.
Pudge was actually asked if he was one of the players who had tested positive during the survey testing. His response? It was far from reassuring with him saying, “Only God knows.” (St. Louis News).
When there was more there than just rumor and innuendo from people like Canseco, Pudge went from denying using steroids use to acting obtuse on the subject. If Pudge had denied being on the list, I would have voted for him. However, Pudge chose not to deny it. He chose to deny it despite there being a number of different reasons to lead a reasonable person to believe he did use steroids during his career.
Ultimately, I denied Pudge my vote because he wouldn’t deny that he could’ve tested positive for steroids.
There are a number of interesting candidates to the Hall of Fame ballot this year. They are interesting for a multitude of reasons. There are a group of players who are still tainted by steroids. There are players who were important members of teams that won multiple World Series titles. There were also some players who were among the best at their position. Despite all of that, I am only voting for
Stats: 16 seasons, .318/.379/.553, 477 2B, 46 3B, 449 HR, 1,496 RBI, 181 SB
Advanced: 59.3 WAR, 41.1 WAR7, 50.2 JAWS
Awards: 8X Silver Slugger, 9X All Star, 2004 AL MVP
What is interesting about Guerrero is there is a chasm here. The chasm is the player I perceived Guerrero to be during his playing career, and the player advanced statistics did not like as much as I did.
Looking at the advanced statistics, Guerrero falls short of induction. The average right fielder has amassed a 73.2 WAR, 43.0 WAR7, and a 58.1 JAWS. Realistically speaking, Guerrero only comes close in terms of WAR7, and he is still short on that front. It is also interesting that Larry Walker has cleared each of those thresholds, and yet, he has been trouble gaining traction in Hall of Fame voting.
Another startling fact was Guerrero is actually behind Bobby Abreu, who I do not perceive as a Hall of Famer, in all of those advanced stats. Ultimately, if Guerrero would be inducted into the Hall of Fame, he would be one of the worst right fielders ever inducted into the Hall of Fame. Despite the advanced stats, I voted for him anyway.
In his career, Guerrero was as exciting a player as you would see step onto the baseball field. Not only would he literally swing at anything, he could also hit anything:
He also had one of the strongest arms you will ever see on a baseball field:
Guerrero was why you come to the ballpark, but admittedly, that isn’t enough to deserve enshrinement in Cooperstown. There has to be a better reason, and there is.
With Guerrero’s 449 homers, he would be the only right fielder with over 400 homers not inducted into the Hall of Fame not named Jose Canseco. Of all right fielders, he ranks sixth all-time in slugging percentage. Of the five ahead of him, the only ones not elected in the Hall of Fame are Walker (still eligible), and Juan Gonzalez (steroids). With 972 extra base hits, he would be the first right fielder with over 950 extra base hits, that has been Hall of Fame eligible and not tainted by steroids, that is not inducted in the Hall of Fame. To demonstrate how feared a hitter he was, Guerrero ranks fifth all-time in intentional walks, with him leading the league in intentional walks on five different occasions.
On top of this, Guerrero has a good .312 batting average and a respectable .379 on base percentage. Looking at those numbers, it begs the question over why Guerrero’s advanced statistics are so low.
Well, the first reason is base running. Guerrero was not the most successful of base stealers only being successful 65.8% of the time. For example, in the year he reached a career high 40 stolen bases in his quest to reach 40/40, he was caught stealing a league leading 20 times. Overall, Guerrero has been asserted to be among the worst base runners of all time. In fact, it has been said he is the worst non-catcher base runner of all time.
Between that and advanced statistics, pre-StatCast, not loving his defense, Guerrero went from a hitter certainly worth of enshrinement to a player that advanced statistics indicate should be on the outside looking in. Guerrero has lost 10.7 in WAR due to his defense and an additional three due to his base running. Between the two, that is 13.7 lost in WAR. If you were to add that back, Guerrero’s career WAR would be 73, which is right on the cusp for enshrinement.
This isn’t to say defense and base running don’t matter. It also isn’t to say the WAR calculations are definitively wrong. Rather, it does leave room for the concept that maybe the data would be calculated differently, especially in the StatCast era, that would be beneficial to Guerrero. It also leaves room for the idea that much of the issues with base running and defense were associated with him spending much of his career playing for Felipe Alou and Mike Scioscia, two managers who demanded an aggressive, some would say reckless, base running style. They are also two managers not well know for their adherence to advanced data, which could have helped with Guerrero’s defense.
Again, this is just leaving room, and it is not making excuses for the areas in the game where Guerrero has been alleged to have been lacking.
Overall, Guerrero, a former MVP, was one of the best players in baseball during his playing career, and he was certainly a player that outshone his peers. Ultimately, he deserves induction to Cooperstown.
If you were to look at the IBWAA ballot, voters are unable to vote for three players which are on the BBWAA ballot. The reason is those players already garnered the necessary 75% to be considered Hall of Famers according to the IBWAA. While I cannot vote for those players like I did for these other four players, I do think it is worthwhile to examine their candidacy especially when they are eligible for Hall of Fame induction.
Tim Raines, LF
Stats: 23 seasons, .294/.385/.425, 430 2B, 113 3B, 170 HR, 980 RBI, 808 SB
Advanced: 69.1 WAR, 42.2 WAR7, 55.6 JAWS
Awards: Silver Slugger, 7X All-Star
Over the span of 23 years, Raines had three different careers. From 1981 – 1987, Raines was the best leadoff hitter in the National League, and perhaps the second greatest leadoff hitter of all time. The problem was during this time frame Raines was overshadowed by his contemporary, Rickey Henderson, who is widely regarded as the best leadoff hitter of all time. Another fact to consider was Raines has been overlooked due to his great years being in Montreal.
From 1988 – 1995, Raines was a solid regular who was still an on base machine. He was still stealing bases, but not at an elite clip like he was earlier in this career. He was a good player you wanted on your team, but he was no longer an All-Star caliber player; certainly not in an era when players were starting to hit for more and more power.
From 1996 – 2002, Raines was a player holding on. First, he was looking to get that ring as a veteran leader for a Yankees team about to start its next dynasty. Next, he was holding on so he could play with his son Tim Raines, Jr. with the Baltimore Orioles.
We can all agree that if Raines career spanned from 1988 – 2002, he would not be a Hall of Famer. In that time frame, he really only had one truly great year in 1992. Other than that, he was a solid player to veteran leader. However, Raines career started much each than that. In reality, his career as an everyday player started in 1981.
From 1981 – 1987, Raines was as good as anyone in baseball. In that seven year stretch, his average season was .310/.396/.448 with 103 runs, 31 doubles, nine triples, nine home runs, 55 RBI, and 72 stolen bases. He would accumulate 38.4 WAR while averaging 5.5 WAR per season. For the sake of comparison, Henderson’s best stretch was arguably from 1982 – 1988. In those seasons, Rickey averaged .289/.399/.447 with 26 doubles, four triples, 16 home runs, 56 RBI, and 86 stolen bases with a 6.7 WAR. Looking at these numbers, we can all agree that Rickey was the better player, but was he that much better during this stretch?
Again, remember that Rickey was not a borderline Hall of Famer. He was a no doubter. Rickey being slightly better than you means you were still a Hall of Fame talent. That is evidenced by Raines having a higher WAR, WAR7, and JAWS than the average Hall of Fame left fielder. Even if you note, Rickey played at a Hall of Fame level much longer than Raines, it does not mean Raines was not a Hall of Famer. It means Raines was the second best leadoff hitter of all time. That deserves induction.
If you are not convinced, here are some other interesting facts. Raines is fifth all-time in stolen bases, and if he was inducted, he would have the best stolen base percentage of anyone inducted into the Hall of Fame. Raines’ 85% success rate is the best in major league baseball history out of anyone with over 312 stolen bases. He is the only player to steal 70 bases in seven consecutive seasons. With that said, you could argue that while he doesn’t have the highest numbers, no one was better at successfully stealing a base than Raines.
Overall, the case is just too strong. Raines is a Hall of Famer, and he should be inducted in his final year of eligibility.
Jeff Bagwell, 1B
Stats: 15 seasons, .297/.408/.540, 448 2B, 32 3B, 449 HR, 1,529 RBI, 202 SB
Advanced: 79.6 WAR, 48.2 JAWS7, 63.9 JAWS
Awards: Gold Glove, 3X Silver Slugger, 4X All Star, 1991 Rookie of the Year, 1994 NL MVP
Part of me understands Bagwell not having gained induction into the Hall of Fame. As someone who closely followed baseball during Bagwell’s playing time, he didn’t seem like one of the best players in baseball let alone someone who would be a Hall of Famer. However, when you look at the numbers, and his career, it is hard to make a case against him.
From 1991 – 2004, Bagwell was an everyday player who averaged 32 homers and 108 RBI with an outstanding 150 OPS+. To put it in perspective, Willie McCovey, a good example of a slugging first baseman, averaged 32 homers and 88 RBI with a 161 OPS+ during the best 11 year stretch of his career. McCovey is an interesting comparison as he had to hit in Candlestick, which like the Astrodome, was a difficult place to hit homers. The difference between the two is McCovey played at a time when it was more difficult to hit homers, and McCovey reached that formerly magic 500 home run threshold. Still, if Bagwell’s career numbers are comparable to the best of McCovey, certainly Bagwell is a Hall of Famer.
However, Bagwell was more than a slugging first baseman. He was a threat on the bases. His 202 stolen bases ranks him 20th among first baseman. Notably, however, none of the 19 ahead of him hit more than 106 homers in their careers. Bagwell’s speed was an interesting dynamic for a first baseman who could also hit 30+ homers in a season. An interesting factoid from Bagwell’s career is that Bagwell actually led the league in scoring on three different occasions. It is all the more remarkable when you consider he spent most of his career hitting in the middle of the lineup.
Moreover, Bagwell has the advanced statistics to garner induction. His WAR is sixth all-time at the position. That puts him ahead of such renown Hall of Famers like the aforementioned McCovey, Harmon Killebrew, and Hank Greenberg. Overall, the only thing that can be used to justify keeping Bagwell out of the Hall of Fame is steroids. However, there is no proof or statement Bagwell used steroids. Absent that, keeping him out of the Hall of Fame is wrong, and therefore, he should be inducted to Cooperstown.
Edgar Martinez, DH
Stats: 18 seasons, .312/.418/.515, 514 2B, 15 3B, 309 HR, 1,261 RBI, 49 SB
Advanced: 68.3 WAR, 43.6 WAR7, 56.0 JAWS
Awards: 5X Silver Slugger, 7X All Star
Let’s start with one common fallacy we are seeing with people who are making cases for Martinez to be inducted into the Hall of Fame. Many will argue Martinez deserves induction because he has a higher batting average than Jackie Robinson, a higher on base percentage than Stan Musial, a higher slugging than Ernie Banks, more doubles than Babe Ruth, more homers than Rogers Hornsby, more RBI than Tony Gwynn, more hits than Joe DiMaggio, and a higher WAR than Yogi Berra. This is a distraction because Edgar Martinez was not a position player like the aforementioned players. Edgar was a DH.
That is not to suggest a DH can’t be inducted into the Hall of Fame. In fact, there are already two that have been inducted. The first was Paul Molitor in 2004, and the second was Frank Thomas in 2014. With there being two DHs already in the Hall of Fame, we have a baseline upon which to judge Martinez’s candidacy. When judging Martinez up against Molitor and Thomas, he falls short.
Thomas accumulated the following advanced stats: 71.0 WAR, 45.2 WAR7, and a 59.5 JAWS. He also had 500 homers. Molitor accumulated a 75.4 WAR, 39.6 WAR7, and a 57.5 JAWS. He also had 3,000 hits, and he was the 1993 World Series MVP.
Looking at Martinez, he falls behind Thomas and Molitor in terms of career WAR and JAWS. Basically, the only argument Martinez would have based upon the advanced statistics is WAR7. However, it is hard to justify enshrinement based upon that one statistic, especially when you consider Martinez didn’t have as long a career, and he didn’t have the magic numbers like Thomas and Molitor.
If you want to expand the numbers, you could start building a better case. You could argue Martinez’s 147 OPS+ and 147 wRC+ was far above Molitor’s 122 OPS+ and 122 wRC+. However, Martinez’s numbers fall well short of Thomas, who put up a 156 OPS+ and a 154 wRC+.
This is important when you consider one of the justifications provided for Martinez’s enshrinement is the supposition that he was the best DH of all-time. However, looking over all of the numbers, he wasn’t. The best DH of all-time was Frank Thomas.
It is hard to say he deserves enshrinement as being somewhere between 2-5 on the all-time list of DH. First, the DH position has only be around since 1973, and for many years Harold Baines was considered the best DH. No one was arguing Baines’ case for induction into the Hall of Fame when he was elected.
The other fallacy argument is DH should be treated as closers, which is another specialty position. It is true that closers are a specialty position, but relievers have been around since there has been baseball. The first professional team was founded in 1869, and Major League Baseball was founded in 1903. Since that time, there have been exactly five relief pitchers inducted into the Hall of Fame. The main reason is the position is seen as a specialist position. Therefore, only the best of the absolute best should be inducted.
Keep in mind, when Lee Smith was first eligible to be inducted he was the all-time saves leader, and he had a 132 OPS+, which was much higher than pitchers who had already been inducted into the Hall of Fame. For example, Tom Seaver, a pitcher who is arguably the best right handed pitcher of all time, had a 127 ERA+. Smith never garnered more than 50.6% of the vote because while he was arguably a great specialist, he did not do enough as a specialist to earn Hall of Fame enshirnement.
That is where I am with Edgar. He was a very good DH, and he was one of the best ever. However, he was not the best DH, nor did he do anything as a DH better than anyone in history. He was just really good at a specialty role. That makes him an all-time Mariner. That makes him an all-time DH. It does not equate to being a Hall of Famer.
With the induction of Mike Piazza and Ken Griffey, Jr. coupled with Alan Trammell having fallen off the ballot, some of the glut that has been there in year’s past is no longer there. Still, there are a number of people on the ballot who are deserving of Hall of Fame induction.
Before addressing who I did and who I did not vote for, it should be noted that I am not one who believes steroids users should be inducted into the Hall of Fame. However, I do believe there needs to be some evidence of usage if you are going to deny someone of a vote. For far too long Piazza was denied induction despite the complete lack of credible evidence against him. This fate has also befallen Jeff Bagwell. And no, my opinion on this did not change with the induction of Bud Selig. One mistake should not beget another.
For example, Jesse Haines is considered one of the worst selections in major league history. However, he is not used as a door to induct any starter with a 200 wins and an ERA above 3.50. If that was the case, David Cone and Dwight Gooden would be kicking themselves over retiring before getting those last six wins.
That is why I typically compare players to the average Hall of Famer at that position. Saying someone is similar to the worst player inducted only serves to reduce the quality of the players inducted. To compare everyone to the best of the best excludes players who had truly remarkable careers. With that said, I compare players to the average with some caveats. First, you should get extra credit for postseason play. Second, you should get extra credit for doing something better than anyone has at that position. Third, winning hardware and awards do matter. Note, I only treat those as bonuses and not detractors.
With that long preamble, here are the players I voted for in last year’s IBWAA balloting. After re-examining the respective cases, I am once again voting for the following players:
Career Stats: 17 seasons, .313/.400/.565, 471 2B, 62 3B, 383 HR, 1,311 RBI, 230 SB
Advanced: 72.6 WAR, 44.6 WAR7, 58.6 JAWS
Awards: 7X Gold Glove, 3X Silver Slugger, 5X All-Star, 1997 NL MVP
While Mark McGwire was generally seen as the test for whether steroids players would be inducted into the Hall of Fame, Walker has been the test case for players that have put up terrific offensive numbers at Coors Field. So far, Walker has been penalized for playing in Coors Field, and many people have disregarded someone who has been one of the best right fielders to every play the game.
In his heyday, Walker was not only an outstanding hitter, he was an outstanding fielder as evidenced by his Gold Gloves. He was one of the most complete players of his generation. Despite that, he is being discounted due to Coors Field where players put up proverbial video game numbers.
Yes, Walker did benefit from playing in Coors Field. In his career, Walker was a .381/.462/.710 hitter. However, it should be noted that on the road for his career, Walker was a 278/.370/.495 hitter. Furthermore, in his six years with the Expos at the beginning of his career, he hit .281/.357/.483. Reggie Jackson, who was a first ballot inductee, was a career .262/.356/.490 hitter. Walker’s road and Expos numbers compare very favorably to Jackson.
With the Jackson comparison, the MVP Award, the Gold Gloves, and the advanced stats, Walker should be inducted into Cooperstown.
Stats: 17 seasons, .290/.356/.500, 560 2B, 47 3B, 377 HR, 1,518 RBI, 94 SB
Advanced: 55.2 WAR, 35.6 WAR7, 45.4 JAWS
Awards: 4X Silver Slugger, 5X All Star, 2000 NL MVP
There are many good reasons not to vote for Kent. He was a corner infielder masquerading as a second baseman. The advanced stats certainly don’t match up to the standard for induction into the Hall of Fame. All of this is very true, but I voted for him anyway.
The reason is Kent is the best slugging second baseman in major league history, and he’s the best hitter at the position next to Rogers Hornsby. Among second baseman, he’s hit the most home runs, fourth most doubles, third highest RBI, and the second highest slugging percentage. When you add the 2000 MVP to the picture, there is enough there to say Kent deserves induction into Cooperstown.
Stats: 20 seasons, 216-146, 3.46 ERA, 83 CG, 22 SHO, 22 SV, 1.137 WHIP, 3,116 K
Advanced: 79.9 WAR, 49.0 WAR7, 64.5 JAWS
Awards: 6X All-Star, 1993 NLCS MVP, 2001 WS MVP
Many could look upon Schilling’s career, and they could lament over a relatively low win total and high ERA. However, that is only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to Schilling.
Looking at Schilling’s advanced numbers, he certainly has done enough to earn induction into the Hall of Fame. His WAR and JAWS are above the average for Hall of Fame pitchers. His 127 ERA+ is the same as Tom Seaver‘s. In terms of more traditional stats, Schilling is in the Top 15 on the career strike out list. He is also has the second best K/BB ratio among players eligible for the Hall of Fame. These numbers alone should warrant induction.
On top of that, Schilling is the definition of a Big Game Pitcher. In his postseason career, Schilling was 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA and a 0.968 WHIP. In the World Series, Schilling was 4-1 with a 2.06 ERA and a 0.896 WHIP. He has won an NLCS MVP and a World Series MVP. He was a key member of three World Series winning clubs. Between his postseason heroics and his regular season dominance, Schilling is a Hall of Famer.
Overall, if we are being honest, the reason Schilling won’t be inducted this year or the upcoming years will be a result of his post-career actions.
Stats: 18 seasons, 270-153, 3.68 ERA, 57 CG, 23 SHO, 1.192 WHIP, 2,813 K
Advanced: 83.0 WAR, 44.5 WAR7, 63.8 JAWS
Awards: 6X Gold Glove, 5X All-Star
At age 39, Mussina finally got to the elusive benchmark of 20 wins in a season. Judging from that year, it appeared he had an extra couple of years left in him to go make a run at 300 like many in his shoes would have. Certainly, with his conditioning and the like, he had at least three years left in him to get it, and if he had, he likely would have been elected into the Hall of Fame without much of a fight.
However, Mussina did not get to that magical number leaving us to examine what was an interesting and a very good career.
To appropriately view Mussina, it needs to be within the context of his era. Mussina not only played during the Steroids Era, but he also pitched in a bandbox like Camden Yards for the majority of his career. It is a huge reason why that despite his relatively high 3.68 ERA for Hall of Fame standards, Mussina has a career 123 ERA+. His 123 ERA+ is the same as Juan Marichal who pitched in a different era, had a career 2.89 ERA, and was a inducted his fourth time on the ballot.
Mussian’s ERA+ is also much higher to first ballot Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan and his 112 ERA+. What is interesting about that is despite being completely different pitchers with very different careers, Mussina and Ryan have similar cases from an advanced stat point of view. Despite having pitched in nine more seasons than Mussina, Ryan actually trails Mussina in career WAR. Ryan also trails Mussina in WAR7 and JAWS.
This is not to diminish Ryan’s career. He was a first ballot Hall of Famer for a reason. He was a 300 game winner with more strikeouts and no-hitters than anyone in baseball history. Despite these tremendous stats, it is arguable that Mussina was a the superior pitcher to Ryan. When you can create a valid argument why someone was a better pitcher than a no-doubt Hall of Famer like Ryan, you belong in the Hall of Fame; and ultimately, that is why Mussina belongs in Cooperstown.
Recent reports indicate that President Elect Donald Trump is considering Bobby Valentine as the United States Ambassador to Japan. If Valentine is indeed selected as the Ambassador to Japan, it would be his second biggest accomplishment. Naturally, his biggest accomplishment was leading the 2000 Mets not only to the postseason, but to the National League Pennant.
As luck would have it, the New York Mets would begin the season in Japan. Valentine’s Opening Day outfield was Rickey Henderson–Darryl Hamilton–Derek Bell. Of that group, only Bell would play in a postseason game for the Mets, and he would be injured in Game One of the NLDS. Henderson would prove to be a malcontent that wanted a new contract, and ultimately, he would be released in May. Hamilton would lose his job in April after suffering a toe injury. This led to the Mets outfield being Benny Agbayani–Jay Payton-Bell for most of the season.
The one thing Agbayani could do was hit. In 2000, he hit .289/.391/.477 with 15 homers and 60 RBI in 119 games. However, he was a terrible fielder who did this in the field during a game that season:
For his part, Payton was one of the heralded players out of Georgia Tech that included Jason Varitek and Nomar Garciaparra. While Payton was once considered on par with them, if not better. As a prospect, Payton’s star would diminish a bit, but he would still become a major league player. In his 2000 rookie season, Payton relatively struggled at the plate hitting .291/.331/.447 with 17 homers and 62 RBI in 149 games.
There was more than that. Valentine also had to help make Todd Zeile an effective first baseman after he spent most of his career as a third baseman. Zeile was of course signed to replace John Olerud, who departed in free agency. While Zeile had a nice season hitting .268/.356/.467 with 22 homers and 79 RBI, his production fell far short of Olerud’s .298/.427/.463, 19 homer run, 96 RBI season. When you consider the drop off defensively from the Gold Glover Olerud to the quickly adapting Zeile, the team was noticeably worse at first base.
The team was also worse at shortstop. While Rey Ordonez never hit for much, he was a Gold Glover at shortstop. The Mets would miss that defense after he broke his left arm trying to get a tag down in May. This led to the Mets trying to get by with Melvin Mora at shortstop, who struggled at the plate and in the field. This led to the ill advised trade for Mike Bordick who would hit .260/.321/.365 in his 56 games as a Met.
In reality, this was all part of a Mets team that was considerably weaker than the 1999 version. Pat Mahomes was nowhere near as good as he was in 1999. In place of well established veterans like Orel Hershiser and Kenny Rogers in the rotation, the Mets had Glendon Rusch and the return of Bobby Jones. However, it should be noted the rotation was one area the Mets were better.
Whereas the 1999 Mets were an offensive juggernaut with a strong bullpen, the 2000 Mets were built on starting pitching. Al Leiter had an improved season making him 1A behind the ace the Mets acquired in the offseason, Mike Hampton. With Rusch and Jones outperforming their expectations, and quite possibly what their rotation counterparts did in 1999, the rotation was one area the Mets were improved.
The rotation along with two terrific players in Mike Piazza and Edgardo Alfonzo, Valentine was able to lead the Mets to the World Series. Valentine was able to do that despite a diminished offense, vastly diminished defense, an overall less talented roster, and some drama (which usually follows Valentine wherever he goes). It was a team that outperformed their Pythagorean win-loss record by six games. It was a team that outperformed expectations.
Making it to the 2000 World Series should be considered Valentine’s biggest accomplishment. That Mets team really had no business making it to the postseason let alone the World Series. It is why that should stand as Valentine’s biggest accomplishment even if he were to be named as President Trump’s choice to be the Ambassador to Japan.
Lets start with the caveat that the non-elite closer bullpen market has yet to fully materialize. Once Kenley Jansen picks his team, it appears as if the market for the next tier of relievers, which includes possible Mets targets in Brad Ziegler and Koji Uehara, will begin to emerge. It is also possible the Mets could trade Jay Bruce or some other players for bullpen help.
With those caveats in mind, there are two issues confronting the Mets bullpen. The first is that many relievers who could help the Mets in 2017 may move out of their price range, especially with Sandy Alderson announcing the team has to reduce its current payroll. The other obvious issue is the Mets have to somehow contend with the possibility that Jeurys Familia may be gone for a significant portion of the season. With that in mind, the Mets may very well have to look internally to fill one or more of the holes in their bullpen.
This begs the question about whether they can do it. Here is a look at some of the options for the 2017 season to determine whether or not the Mets current bullpen issues can be solved internally:
2016 MLB Stats: 1-0, 5.23 ERA, 16 G, 10.1 IP, 1.548 WHIP, 9.6 K/9
2016 MiLB Stats: 2-2, 3.11 ERA, 43 G, 37.2 IP, 1.540 WHIP, 10.8 K/9
In his first season back from Tommy John surgery, the biggest thing that stuck out for Edgin was his loss of velocity. Once, Edgin was a reliever who came out of the bullpen throwing 94 MPH. In 2016, Edgin loss three MPH off his fastball, and as a result, he went from limiting right-handed batters to a .219/.286/.250 batting line in his breakout 2014 season to a .300/.400/.500 batting line in 2016.
It should be noted the numbers from the 2014 and 2016 seasons are both relatively small sample sizes. Additionally, Edgin continued to pitch well against left-handed batters in 2016 limiting them to a .235/.300/.235 batting line. With that Edgin proved he can still be an effective LOOGY out of the pen even with this reduced velocity. If Edgin were to regain that velocity, he can fully take over the role left vacated by Jerry Blevins.
2016 MLB Stats: 0-1, 7.13 ERA, 14 G, GS, 17.2 IP, 1.585 WHIP, 5.6 K/9
2016 MiLB Stats: 9-7, 4.86 ERA, 19 G, 18 GS, 107.1 IP, 1.425 WHIP, 7.9 K/9
Despite Gilmartin being an important part of the Mets 2015 bullpen, the team decided it was better for him to work on being a starting pitcher in AAA rather than him reprising his role as the long man in the bullpen. While he started out well for the 51s, he would eventually begin to suffer some shoulder discomfort, which required a stint on the disabled list, and his stats would suffer from there. It probably didn’t help that the Mets expected him to take cross-country flights and make multiple inning appearances out of the bullpen with three days of rest or less. Ultimately, we have seen Gilmartin be successful in the major leagues out of the bullpen, and accordingly, we should not discount the possibility he will be successful out of the bulllpen again in 2017.
2016 MLB Stats: 5-2, 2.67 ERA, 17 G, 8 GS, 64.0 IP, 1.094 WHIP, 6.3 K/9
2016 MiLB Stats: 3-4, 6.50, 21 G, 14 GS, 73.1 IP, 1.677 WHIP, 7.6 K/9
After Lugo struggled in AAA, he was taken out of the rotation, and he was put in the bullpen. For a guy that can max out his fastball over 95 MPH and has a terrific curveball, it seemed like the best place for him in a Mets organization with plenty of pitching depth. When he first came up to the majors and made Anthony Rizzo look foolish with his curveball, it seemed like Lugo had a home in the bullpen.
However, with the starting pitching injuries mounting, Lugo was thrust into the rotation. With a postseason berth on the line, he combined with fellow rookie Robert Gsellman to pitch extremely well. It is now debatable as to whether or not the bullpen is the best use of Lugo’s talents. It is all the more debatable when you consider the Mets rotation has some injury concerns and is likely going to deal with some innings limits. With that in mind, while Lugo has certainly proven himself to be an effective reliever, he may be best suited to either the fifth spot in the rotation, or starting the year in the AAA rotation and being ready for the first opportunity that arises.
2016 MiLB Stats: 5-3, 3.29 ERA, 56 G, 19 SV, 65.2 IP, 1.203 WHIP, 11.0 K/9
With Sewald not being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, he is now a possibility to be a part of the Mets bullpen in 2017. The issue with Sewald is his stuff is not that impressive with him only topping out in the low 90s with his fastball. However, that overlooks the fact that he has a good slider which he uses as an out pitch, and the fact he rarely walks batters. In his minor league career, he has only walked 59 batters in 258.0 innings pitched.
Another factor to consider is how well he pitched in the Pacific Coast League, which is a hitter’s haven. In the second half of the season, Sewald made 20 appearances going 1-1 with a 1.98 ERA, 10 saves, 0.95 WHIP, and an 11.8 K/9. In looking over his entire minor league career, Sewald has rarely walked batters, has struck out over 10 batters per nine, has had low ERAs, and has consistently been a good closer. With his experience, talent, and the Mets catchers excellent pitch framing, there is every reason to believe Sewald has a legitimate chance to be a good reliever in the major leagues.
2016 MLB Stats: 3-0, 4.70 ERA, 20 G, 15.1 IP, 1.304 WHIP, 14.7 K/9
2016 MiLB Stats: 3-2, 4.11 ERA, 52 G, 57.0 IP, 1.474 WHIP, 12.8 K/9
The Smoker we saw with the Mets was essentially the Smoker that we have seen in his minor league career. Smoker is a one inning reliever who strikes out a lot of batters, but he has reverse splits. Whereas Edgin is a LOOGY, Smoker is somehow a left-handed ROOGY that gets tattooed by left-handed hitting. Another issue for Smoker is he is only good for one inning. Every single outing he was asked to go over one inning by the Mets, he allowed a home run.
Still, there is a place for a pitcher like Smoker in the bullpen. His ability to generate strikeouts at a level as high as he does is rare, and it is very valuable.
2014 Stats: 11-11, 3.54 ERA, 32 G, 32 GS, CG, SHO, 185.1 IP, 1.327 WHIP, 9.1 K/9
With Wheeler missing two seasons, the Mets have already bandied the idea of putting Wheeler and his 96 MPH fastball in the bullpen. On the one hand, it seems like it is a good opportunity for Wheeler to get back to pitching to major league batters while keeping his inning down after missing the past two seasons while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.
There are some issues with Wheeler in the bullpen. The first is he has a tendency to lose the strike zone which is a huge problem for short inning relievers. The second is, as we saw with Jim Henderson, Terry Collins has a tendency to overlook his relievers injury issues and overwork them anyway. The third and final issue is what type of reliever will he be? Is he going to be a multi-inning reliever who will be shut down for a couple of days afterwards, or is he going to be a one inning reliever expected to air it out for one inning.
The answer to that and many other questions will be resolved once the Mets ultimately decide what Wheeler is. Is he someone that can rejoin the rotation, or is he someone forever slated to the bulllpen? At this point, it is hard to know the answer.
Overall, the Mets have plenty of internal options to fill-out their bullpen. Indeed, if they were to use only internal options, it is possible the Mets could build themselves a very good bullpen. However, if the Mets were to purely stick with internal options, it remains possible the Mets may expose their starting rotation by not having pitchers like Gilmartin, Lugo, or Wheeler sufficiently stretched out to start.
Ulimately, the Mets would be wise to use some of their internal options to help build their bullpen in 2017. With that said, the team is still going to need to obtain one or two relievers before the end of the offseason.