Musings
The biggest thing we know about Gleyber Torres is he never became the player the New York Yankees thought he’d be. He was destined for superstardom only to become an enigma.
He was an All-Star his first two seasons with two 3+ win seasons. From there, well, he never made the leap. He’s just been an average to believe average regular.
He’s coming off his worst season leading the Yankees to not even offer him the qualifying offer. This makes him a perfect buy low candidate.
At 28, Torres is in the prime of his career. Looking over at Baseball Savant, the offensive skills are still there. He doesn’t swing and miss and can still barrel balls. An adjustment here and there, and he can return to the 120 wRC+ level he was at the beginning of his career.
The larger issue with him is his defense. Simply put, he’s a bad second baseman, and he always has been. He needs to move off the position. He refuses even when the Yankees obtained Jazz Chisholm at the trade deadline.
He would seem to be better suited to third. He’s better moving to his right, and he’s far better charging in than moving back.
We shouldn’t read too much into his StatCast arm strength readings. After all, most of the throws from second are flips leading to lower MPH readings. If you dig deeper, he can throw 92 MPH, a speed more than sufficient for third base.
Again, the larger issue is he’s been hesitant to move. Perhaps, this is where his relationship with Carlos Mendoza would help.
Torres sees Mendoza as a father figure who has brought out the best in him. Torres’ best two years were 2022-2023 when Mendoza was the Yankees bench coach. After Mendoza left to manage the Mets, Torres struggled.
If you really think about it, Torres could give the Mets similar production at third than what Willy Adames could. Torres should come cheaper and without qualifying offer penalties.
The Mets need a third baseman with upside. They always need players who can handle New York. Torres needs Mendoza.
Ultimately, this is a move that would benefit both sides. Torres will be better playing under Mendoza, Torres needs to move to third, and the Mets need a third base upgrade. It’s a move that makes sense and should happen.
MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred has been determined to leave his own stamp on Major League Baseball. Where most commissioners have long erred towards protecting the integrity of the way the game has been played, Manfred has not been afraid to push the envelope.
Some of his moves have been roundly applauded. While there were time parameters for pitchers, Manfred added enforcement mechanisms that put real penalties for the failure to comply with the rules already in place.
Other measures have really antagonized baseball’s loyal fanbase. Right off the bat, the extra inning ghost runner is a bastardization of the sport.
The same can be said for the shift rules. People have been screaming for more disciplined hitters who learned to use the whole field. Instead, Manfred put rules in place which rewarded the all-or-nothing approaches at the plate which have aggravated many fans.
Overall, the theme has been pace of play and increased offense. That was a large reason for the universal DH. It didn’t matter there was nothing to support the call for a universal DH.
We now have the universal DH to go with the intentional walk rule and ghost runners. Notably, none of these rule changes are leading to improved attendance. In fact, attendance is down from where it was a decade ago.
All of the least viewed World Series have come during Manfred’s tenure. Not even a Yankees-Dodgers World Series could generate ratings baseball saw a decade ago.
The universal DH was put in place in 2022. With it has come DECREASED interest in the game.
Rather than acknowledging the failures of the rules implemented, Manfred seems set to double down with the Golden Batter Rule. The rule is a team can choose one point in the game to bat their best hitter when they want.
Like with all the other rules, it’s not baseball. It’s an abomination.
And yet, we see the rule inexplicably has its champions. The biggest proponent is Michael Kay. We can obviously surmise from here that his whole shtick is being a contrarian and/or he’s preparing for a life with Aaron Judge being the only real hitter in that lineup.
Call it the Golden Batter. In reality, it’s just an extension of the Universal DH.
We’ve gone from who wants to see pitchers hit to who wants to see the bottom three in the order with the game on the line. There is no real appreciable difference.
When people signed on for the universal DH, they logically signed on for this. Instead of agreeing to the provisions of the sport allowing for pinch hitters, people argued for the flawed and failed DH.
Now, they’re probably going to get the next level of it. It’s a special situation DH. It’s a why end the game with a team’s worst hitter when you can see their best.
Instead of allowing baseball to be great like it’s been for over a century, we get people trying to generate greatness. It’s all just antithetical to what the sport actually is.
Baseball was forever tarnished with the universal DH. This is the next step. Next, we will just see any three batters to start any inning. With each passing change, we will see baseball slowly disappear.
While this is happening and interest continues to wane, we will have people continuing to argue another change is needed. The sad truth is baseball was great as is, and the sooner we all realize it, the better off we will all be.
Last year, a large part of the New York Mets making the postseason was their rolling the dice on Sean Manae and Luis Severino. Apparently, David Stearns is looking to execute the same plan for 2025.
The Mets agreed to terms with Frankie Montas on a two year $34 million deal. Like with Manae last year, Montas can opt out after the first year of the deal.
Last Mets fans saw Montas, they knocked him out of the fourth inning of Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series. He had allowed three runs (one earned) on six hits and three walks on 60 pitches.
Truth is, Montas hasn’t been all that good for a few years now. Back in 2022, much of baseball thought the New York Yankees got off cheap acquiring Montas from the Oakland Athletics at the trade deadline.
Prior to that deal, Montas had pitched six years for the Athletics posting a 111 ERA+ and a 3.72 FIP. He finished sixth in the 2021 Cy Young voting.
In all of Montas’ other stops, he was a 92 ERA+ or worse. At least in terms of the Yankees, it was due to a series of injuries. That right there is your Mets/Severino parallel.
Like with Severino, the Mets are grabbing Montas the year following the proof he was healthy. Montas did make more starts and threw more innings.
The Mets hope they can have Montas improve upon the pitcher he was with the Milwaukee Brewers. In Milwaukee, he roughly pitched 5+ innings per start while striking out 11 per nine.
Even with the uptick in his K/9, his K% was lower than it was with the Yankees. Digging deeper, his Baseball Savant page is a lot of blue. He’s not getting good extension or spin, and perhaps not coincidentally, his whiff rates are low.
Still, we saw Jeremy Hefner get the most out of this pitching staff last year. Manea radically altered his delivery. Peterson changed his pitch mix to feature his sinker more. Severino stopped tipping his pitches.
Between Hefner and the analytics, the Mets are showing they can get the most out of their starters. At one time, Montas was viewed as a top of the rotation pitcher. The Mets are gambling by presumably giving him the fourth or fifth starters job to earn his way back to that status.
With the Mets, you’d think they’re at a spot where they don’t take projects like this. It’s what makes this signing odd. You thought after 2024, they would be in a different spot.
Then again, this is why they hired David Stearns. This is what could give them the room to sign Juan Soto along with whatever else they need.
Still, this is a gamble, and that’s what makes this signing so odd.
The Los Angeles Dodgers made the first big signing of the offseason by inking two time Cy Young winner Blake Snell to a five year deal. The deal was worth $182 million comprised of a $52 million signing bonus and deferred money.
With Snell, the perfect conditions were in place for things to get done this quickly:
- The Dodgers targeted Snell;
- The Dodgers will World Series contenders in 2025;
- The Dodgers have very deep pockets; and
- Snell lingered on the free agent market last offseason leading him to want to strike a quick deal this offseason.
For the Mets, Manae has vocalized his wanting to return to the Mets. The team and organization love him with teammates attending his wedding.
Manae finally seemed to hit that ceiling people thought he was capable of reaching. Part of that was changing his delivery to emulate Chris Sale. Another important factor was the analytics department coupled with Manae’s work with pitching coach Jeremy Hefner.
While not as long as Snell, Manae did have to wait until January to sign. He got a similar deal to Snell in both received a one year deal with a player option (both obviously declined their options).
Manea is a year older than Snell without the same historic success. Snell was the better of the two, but Manae was one of the better starters in the second half of the season.
Manae is not going to get a similar contract. That said, there should be an avenue for the Mets to strike early.
We know the team needs at least two starters. We don’t know where Corbin Burnes market will go. There are prevalent rumors Roki Sasaki going to the Dodgers is a fait accompli. There are other options with equal issues.
With Manae, you know there’s a pitcher who wants to be there. You know this is a pitcher who thrived in New York. He’s a pitcher who is everything the Mets could need or want.
The Mets need to move quickly to lock in Manae like the Dodgers did with Snell. They need to remove some uncertainty with their rotation. They need to move quick to sign Manae before someone else does.
All signs point to the New York Mets signing Juan Soto. Steve Cohen will not be outdone here, and he’s found a player seemingly eager to be the next great player to come to the Mets.
Arguably, Soto would be THE best hitter to ever don a Mets uniform. When you go to the create a player on MLB the Show, in terms of hitting, it looks like Soto.
At 26, the Mets would be getting their next Mike Piazza, Carlos Beltran, or Francisco Lindor, i.e. a future Hall of Famer in their prime. However, Soto might be the most promising.
That’s from an offensive standpoint. Defensively, it’s an entirely different discussion.
Yes, Soto has been nominated for a Gold Glove the past two years. However, seeing how Lindor can’t get nominated, we see how much stock we should put into that process.
Soto is not a good outfielder. He had a -1 OAA in 2024, and he has a cumulative -25 OAA over the past three seasons. Over that time frame, he has rated as the worst defensive right fielder in all of baseball.
Making matters worse is Soto’s speed. He’s slow. To put it into perspective, DJ Stewart is faster. There were only six right fielders in all of baseball slower than him.
As a result, he’s a poor to middling base runner. Put another way, he’s effectively a one tool player, but that one tool is so worth it.
That goes double for the Mets. Soto hits .333/.466/.709 at Citi Field. That’s Barry Bonds PED level production.
That production takes the Mets to the next level. Instead of losing in six games to the Los Angeles Dodgers they beat them. He’s that much of a difference maker.
Of course, contracts are not made in a bubble. They carry long term risks. As noted, we can argue Soto is already poised to move to DH, and we don’t know his feelings on being a full-time DH.
Of course, some of the concern could be mitigated with opt outs. That creates the drama of revisiting this every few years. It could also hasten a mistake contact in the future.
All told, there are obvious risks with Soto signing a megadeal. We can’t pretend they don’t exist. It’s something that needs to be considered, especially for David Stearns who puts an emphasis on run prevention.
All told, the Mets still should do everything possible to sign him. He’s the perfect fit for this team. They’re blessed to have an owner who won’t hamstring building this roster because of this deal.
Soto should be a Met even if we should stop pretending this deal would carry significant risks.
Well, it looks like Harrison Bader will not be returning to the New York Mets because the Mets obtained Jose Siri from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for Eric Orze.
Siri, 29, is a year younger than Bader and essentially does the same exact thing Bader did last year.
In 2024, Siri had a 16 OAA to Bader’s 10. Over the past three years, Siri leads in OAA 16 to 14.
Siri is one of the fastest players in baseball with a sprint speed of 29.9 ft/sec. Bader was also quick, but he was at a 28.2. It’s one of the reasons Bader was a -1 Runner Run last year to Siri’s 2.
Where Bader is better is hitting. Last year, Bader was an 85 wRC+ and has a 90 wRC+ for his career. Siri had a 70 wRC+ and an 89 for his career.
Against left-handed pitchers, Bader had a 70 wRC+ against lefties and for his career it’s a 109. Siri had a 92 wRC+ against lefties last year and has a 76 for his career.
Siri rarely walks and strikes out far too often. He does have a good barrel rate, but his exit velocities are low. If you get the right hitting coach, maybe you could unlock something, but it’s highly unlikely.
In reality, Siri is nothing more than a defensive specialist. That’s all the Mets need from their fifth outfielder making him a much better fit for the role than Bader would be.
That’s no slight on Bader who was a great fit for the Mets last year. It’s just that Siri will be a better fit for a team looking to sign Juan Soto while also having Jett Williams and Ryan Clifford on the horizon.
Siri was just the better fit for a defensive replacement and specialist. Bader is probably better, but Siri fits the role better. Getting him for a reliever the Mets won’t use just makes this a smart move.
Heading into 2024, the New York Mets made it clear they weren’t rebuilding. It was a retooling. Even in that reset, they expected to make the postseason.
The decision made sense. They were paying for contracts like Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. There were young players they needed to get a real look at the Major League level to see if they were part of the future.
Even if the Mets did not make the postseason, the 2024 season should’ve been considered successful because they found out a lot about their team.
Brett Baty wasn’t the third baseman of the present, and now, he won’t be the third baseman of the future. Thats fine because Mark Vientos was, and he was the best hitter at the position at the Major League level.
David Peterson finally emerged to be the starter the Mets thought he could be. Jose Butto and Dedniel Núñez emerged as very good relievers.
Even though he needed Tommy John and will be lost for 2025, Christian Scott looks like a real rotation piece in the future.
That’s similar to what happened to Ronny Mauricio. He went from 2024 second baseman to a man potentially without a spot. For the Mets, they saw something in him and have interest to see if it’s still there.
Speaking of second base, Luisangel Acuña helped save the Mets season when Francisco Lindor injured his back. Is he the Opening Day second baseman? He did enough to put himself in the mix.
Of course, Acuña has defensive versatility. He could be in the mix at center or third depending on a number of Mets offseason moves. He’s not the only player with defensive versatility.
Jett Williams is the Mets best prospect. He could be the second baseman, shortstop, or center fielder of the future. He might’ve gotten a look last year if not for injuries, and we may well see him in 2025.
The same can be said for Drew Gilbert. He was arguably the prize of the 2023 trade deadline. If not for injuries, he might’ve been up last year.
He’s one of several knocking on the door at Syracuse. Dom Hamel, Blade Tidwell, and Mike Vasil are awaiting their chances to see if they’re the next Butto or Peterson.
That’s nothing to say of the Double-A talent. For years, the Mets kept trying to draft Brandon Sproat, and when they finally got him, we all saw why they desperately wanted him. His battery mate, Kevin Parada, has struggled, but you never know when he finally figures it out.
There is a lot of young talent here waiting to help lead the Mets like we just saw Vientos do. That makes David Stearns job all the more challenging.
Who is the player you trade to try to get that big pitcher like Garrett Crochet? Who is untouchable? Who do you try at all costs not to block at the Major League level?
Certainly, none of these players impact the decisions on Juan Soto or bringing Pete Alonso back. However, there are other quality free agents out there who could forever block a Gilbert or a Vasil.
When making those decision, the Mets better be right. This is why this is still a retool and reset than need to go all-in.
The Mets already have enough. There is so much on the way. They don’t need a lot of help. They just need the right help.
Old friend, Michael Mayer of MMO and MMN, reports the New York Mets have reached out to Willy Adames to see if he would switch to third base for the New York Mets. For his part, Adames seems amenable to the switch.
Adames, 29, is in the prime of his career. Over the past four seasons, he’s been a 3+ WAR player, and he’s had a 119 wRC+ or better in three of the past five years.
Looking deeper at the stats at Baseball Savant, his strikeout rate has been steadily decreasing while his walk rate has been improving. His exit velocities and barrels are consistent with his sweet spot rates improving.
Defensively, he can still play short. Thats important because as we saw with Francisco Lindor’s back, it’s good to have a real backup shortstop option. Being fair, Luisangel Acuña did a great job, but if he’s going to be an everyday player for the Mets, he’s obviously going to need a position change.
That said, we did see Adames go from a 10 and 16 OAA at SS to a 1 in 2024. That was more in line with the negative OAAs he posted with the Tampa Bay Rays.
Looking at the whole picture, he has a strong arm and moves well to his right. That would allow Lindor to play up the middle more to compensate for his not moving as well up the middle and his weaker arm for the position.
Having Adames and Lindor on the left side of the infield promises to be the Mets best left side of the infield since it was manned by Rey Ordoñez and Robin Ventura. This helps with run prevention and makes their pitching staff stronger.
This also improves the defense by moving Mark Vientos from third to first. Even with Vientos’ defensive strides, he was still a -5 OAA there. Truth is, long term, he needs to move to first.
Yes, this would all hurt because it means losing Pete Alonso. However, when all is said and done, the Mets infield and team is better with Adames over Alonso. That’s not said with any enthusiasm, and it’s still true even if it will be a deeply unpopular opinion.
Again, if you want to blame someone here, blame the Wilpons. Alonso should’ve been a Met in 2025.
Stearns is going to value run prevention. Adames does that far better than Alonso. Adames’ 119 wRC+ will offset losing Alonso’s 122. Truth is, Adames is the better and more complete player.
The Mets should forward and sign Adames because it makes the Mets better. It moves them closer to winning the World Series. Adames is the better option as much as it hurts to admit.
There was a report from Hector Gomez of Z101 Digital that Steve Cohen has discussed making Juan Soto the highest paid player of all time. Based on Soto’s statements after the season, that should mean the New York Mets are going to sign Soto.
For what it’s worth, this is the same Gomez who had reported in 2022 that Soto was nearing an extension with the Washington Nationals. After that, we saw Soto twice traded.
Still, Soto hired Scott Boras, which is unusually indicative of a player who wants the largest deal possible. In Soto’s case, that’s the largest ever deal.
During Cohen’s tenure, we’ve seen him and Boras have a good rapport. The Mets did sign Max Scherzer with Cohen taking a part of those negotiations with Boras.
Cohen has also shown a willingness to open the checkbook for players in their prime. His first big move was to trade for Francisco Lindor and give him the largest deal in Mets history.
Similarly, Cohen made sure to keep Edwin Díaz and Brandon Nimmo. Certainly, Cohen had shown he understands the prudence in signing players in their prime in the hopes of bringing the Mets their first World Series since 1986.
As we know, he’s not always successful, but there are caveats. Carlos Correa failed a physical. The Los Angeles Dodgers matched Cohen’s offer for Yoshinobu Yamamoto. That said, in both cases, Cohen made the best offer.
When it comes to Soto, if Cohen wants him, it’s hard to imagine another team makes a better offer. With Soto seemingly wanting the best possible contract, it would appear the Mets look like they will be the team best suited to sign him.
We can have discussions about whether this is the best course for Soto or the Mets. We can and should have those discussions, but at the time, with Cohen flying to meet with Boras, it does seem like the Mets are best positioning themselves.
While this sounds like a Mets fan setting himself up for disappointment, it appears the Mets will sign Soto before the offseason is over. With Cohen wanting it, this is something that should happen.
The New York Mets gambled last season offering Luis Severino a one year $13 million contract. The deal could not have gone better for either side.
Severino made 31 starts for the Mets pitching 182 innings. He had a 101 ERA+ and a 4.21 FIP. He wasn’t the All-Star caliber pitcher he was with the New York Yankees before all the injuries, but he proved he could be durable enough to last a full season.
Severino stopped tipping his pitches. He occasionally flashed brilliance. His first two starts of the postseason were very good. The work with Driveline and Jeremy Hefner paid off, and Severino was entering free agency poised to truly cash in.
The Mets opted to gamble again and extended Severino a qualifying offer, which is $21.05 million. If he accepts, that’s a nice pay raise for Severino albeit with some risk.
Last offseason, with his injuries and top pitching, Severino needed a one year deal to rebuild his value. In 2024, he accomplished that and appeared in line for a multi-year deal.
That was at least until he was given a qualifying offer. With that, there are going to be teams who will not pursue Severino. Severino was good in 2024 but probably not good enough to justify losing a draft pick and/or international bonus pool money.
For Severino, that puts him in a bad spot. At 31, does he want to try to find a multi year deal in an already limited market? Would such a deal be worth passing on $21.05 million? Certainly, his AAV would look more like his 2024 salary than the QO.
For the Mets, they need starters, and Severino as a mid rotation guy would be perfect. This buys time for Christian Scott to return from Tommy John. It also buys time for prospects like Blade Tidwell and Brandon Sproat.
Mostly, it gets a key part of their rotation locked in as the Mets look to take the next step in 2025. Doing that while not over leveraging into the future is the best case scenario.
That’s Severino accepting the QO. It’s the best case scenario. It strengthens the 2025 rotation while mitigating the risk he doesn’t have any durability after pitching 100 more innings in a year.
Severino returning on a QO is a best case scenario. It would be a great start to the offseason. It’s the first step towards the Mets winning the 2025 World Series.