Musings
The New York Mets shocked everyone when they signed catcher Omar Narváez to a one year $7 million deal with an option for 2024. At the time of this signing, it did seem the Mets were trying to remove catchers from the equation rather than add to it.
On that front, MMN‘s own Michael Mayer reported the Mets have been aggressively shopping James McCann. With that in mind, this would seem all the more likely McCann will not be a Met in 2023. However, most Mets fans had just naturally assumed trading McCann would mean the organization was ready to hand the job over to Francisco Álvarez.
Signing Narváez puts an end to the Mets fans hopes of seeing Álvarez on the Opening Day roster. Between Narváez and Tomás Nido, the Mets are now set at the catcher position with two elite pitch framers. Barring injuries, that would mean Álvarez’s lone path to the Opening Day roster is as a part-time catcher and platoon DH partner to Daniel Vogelbach.
Right off the bat, we can dismiss that path. Álvarez is still just 20 years old and is regarded as the top prospect in the game. Yes, he was a late September call-up and made the postseason roster, but that was for a short time to address a need for a team with World Series aspirations. Come Spring Training, the emphasis is back on player development for Álvarez.
In terms of Álvarez’s development, it is important to note he only played 45 games in Triple-A last season. He would only catch in 33 of those games due to an ankle injury which nearly cost him the final month of the season.
Looking deeper, Álvarez has never caught more than 79 games in a season. For the sake of comparison J.T. Realmuto, the type of catcher the Mets hope Álvarez will one day be, routinely catches over 125 games a season, and he has twice caught over 130 games. Simply put, Álvarez needs to build endurance to be able to withstand that type of a workload at the Major League level.
Álvarez also still needs work behind the plate. In an all too small a sample size, Baseball Savant noted he had a very poor 42.9% called strike rate. That would rank him amongst the worst in the majors last season. Again, keep in mind the sample size. That said, Álvarez still has to develop his skills behind the plate for the Mets to trust him over a full 162 game season.
That’s exactly the point with the Narváez signing. The Mets know Álvarez still needs to develop, but with every swing he is closer and closer to the majors. That is why the Mets signed Narváez to a short-term deal. It allows Álvarez to develop like he needs to develop, and it creates a clear path for Álvarez to be the Mets starting catcher as soon as he is ready.
EDITORS NOTE: This post first appeared on MMN
When it comes to Steve Cohen spending this offseason, anything was on the table. To that extent, there really wasn’t anything that could shock you.
And then, the New York Mets signed Omar Narváez to a one year $8 million deal with a $7 million option for 2024.
It’s the type of deal that makes you go, “Huh?” You start to rationalize the signing with the full expectation James McCann or even Tomás Nido were going to be traded posthaste.
However, McCann and Nido are still Mets. Keep in mind, the Mets ad constituted have to carry all three on the active roster. The caveat there is it’s still December.
Having the three catchers further blocks Francisco Álvarez’s path to the majors. Álvarez likely would’ve been called up the majors earlier last season if not for the ankle injury. In any event, he received a (very) late September call-up and made the postseason roster.
Now, you can argue Álvarez should start the season in the minors. Seeing how the New York Yankees mishandled Gary Sánchez, you don’t want to see the Mets repeat many of the same mistakes.
This is a long winded way of saying the Mets have four catchers on the 40 man roster with Álvarez being forced to Triple-A to start 2023. Again, that is unless another move is made, which you have to imagine will happen sooner rather than later.
Just looking things at surface value without contemplating anything further, Narváez is a clear upgrade for the Mets. In many ways, he’s what the Mets were hoping to get from McCann when he was signed years ago.
Per Baseball Savant, Narváez is an elite pitch framer. He ranked just ahead of Nido in catcher framing runs last season even if Nido had the superior called strike rate.
Narváez was also the far better hitter. McCann had a 59 wRC+, and Nido had a 74. Narváez, in a down year, had a 71 but is a 101 wRC+ hitter for his career.
Keep in mind, Narváez had a .248 BABIP indicating bad luck. While you may want to point to the elimination of the shift benefiting him, Narváez had a .304 wOBA against the shift as opposed to .228 with no shift.
There is also caution with Narváez having three year decline in barrels, exit velocities, hard hit rate, and his walk rate. Still, even with all these warning signs, Narváez has more offensive ability and potential than McCann and Nido.
Looking at the situation, a few things are readily apparent. The Mets do not believe Álvarez is ready. The Mets are intent on moving another catcher, but they were not going to miss out on Narváez while that process was playing out.
Again, we need to remember it’s still December. The Mets are likely to make other moves, and in the end, the hope is this signing makes a little more sense than it does today.
If you blinked, you missed reports Carlos Correa was possibly going to the New York Mets. It would have simply been a stunning move for a franchise which already signed Justin Verlander and Brandon Nimmo to huge money as the Mets have been charging towards the $400 million payroll mark.
There was a report from Dan Hayes of The Athtletic. We also saw Steve Cohen out there liking tweets about the team going out and signing Correa. Normally, this would be unbelievable, but there was now belief this could actually happen:
Steve Cohen out here laughing at the luxury tax, liking tweets about signing Correa just to watch MLB burn. #LGM pic.twitter.com/GZlRHthCKB
— Metsmerized Online (@Metsmerized) December 13, 2022
Well, as we found out, it actually wasn’t to be. Correa went to the San Francisco Giants on a 13 year $350 million deal. For Correa, it was probably the better move, and as we know, the Giants had a far more desperate need for Correa than the Mets.
Certainly, it is possible Scott Boras was using the Mets for leverage. It’s also possible Cohen was having a little fun on Twitter.
However, one thing remains ostensibly clear – the New York Mets are not done looking for ways to improve the team. That means even if they have to continue to raise their payroll well above and beyond what anyone believes could be possible for a professional sports franchise.
Make no mistake, this is very good for baseball. Owners going out there and signing players to vastly improve their teams can only be viewed as good for the sport. We should actively celebrate and encourage teams trying to win.
Spending money on players is not a bad thing. Winning is not a bad thing. Believing those things are bad things is incredibly stupid.
Seriously, go as a New York Yankees fan if they regret winning the 2009 World Series after the team went out and signed Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia, and A.J. Burnett and trading for Nick Swisher. Go ask Pittsburgh Pirates fans what is is like to see their team never signing anyone of significance and watching beloved players just leave the franchise without winning anything.
As Mets fans, we know exactly what this is all like. We’ve been desperate for ownership to actually invest in winning. We were tired of the cheap moves. We wanted real action. After all, we watched it happen across town for over 20 years.
In the end, actively trying to win is good for the Mets, and it is good for baseball. It is as fan friendly as it gets, and keeping your fans happy is the best way to maintain and grow interest in the sport. Arguing otherwise is just plain stupid, and likely, it is sour grapes.
Right now, the New York Mets are rumored to be listening to offers for Carlos Carrasco. This makes sense because the Mets should listen to offers on all of their players and make deals if it improves the team. That should go without saying.
There is also the matter of clearing up payroll to permit the Mets to address their bullpen, outfield depth, and find a better solution than Daniel Vogelbach and Darin Ruf at DH. Mostly, the Mets would be better served by having David Peterson in the rotation.
Peterson, 27, was the Mets 2017 first round pick (20th overall) out of the University of Oregon. At his age, this is exactly the time you would be expecting his career to take off, but frankly, to date, it has not gotten started. There are several reasons why that has happened.
After a promising 2020 rookie year in the pandemic shortened season, he predictably struggled in 2021 before succumbing to a shoulder injury. This would have the Mets under Steve Cohen bypass him as they looked to build an elite rotation designed to win the World Series. Despite that, Peterson would be needed, and he would have his moments.
Overall, as a starter, Peterson was 6-5 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.341 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9, and a 10.9 K/9. He would also average 4.2 innings per start. The caveat there was in two September starts, he threw four innings total over two horrific starts. This came at a time the Mets were working to move him to the bullpen for the postseason. Without those two starts, he averaged 5+ innings per start.
No, these aren’t earth shattering numbers, and yes, the walks/control were an issue. However, there are some caveats with these numbers. He was bounced back-and-forth from the rotation and bullpen AND between the majors and Triple-A. That takes its toll on a player. Notably, Peterson did perform better in the majors than in Triple-A.
Another factor is Peterson did not get to really work with Jeremy Hefner the way the rest of the Mets pitching staff did. Notably, we did see Hefner help hone pitchers mechanics and work on their control. This was most notable with the work Hefner did with Edwin Díaz to get him to repeat his landing spot on the mound. As a result, we not only saw the best we’ve seen from the closer, but we also saw Díaz go from a 4.9 BB/9 in 2020 to a 2.6 last season.
Arguably, if Peterson is going to take that next step, he is going to need Major League coaching, be surrounded by pitchers like Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander for a full season, and really, he is going to need a chance.
Looking at the data, he is worth that chance. Per Baseball Savant, Peterson generates excellent extension, and he has a very good whiff%. That is shown with Peterson striking out 27.8% of the batters he faced last season, which is excellent. Part of the reason for that is despite lower fastball velocity and spin (which should be expected with a sinker) is Peterson’s excellent slider numbers.
Highest single-season slider whiff% by a lefty pitcher in the Statcast era (min. 250 sliders swung at):
Andrew Miller: 54.7% ('15)
Amir Garrett: 53.7% ('19)
Patrick Corbin: 53.1% ('18)
Corbin: 51.4% ('19)
Robbie Ray: 49.5% ('17)
Corbin: 49% ('16)
DAVID PETERSON: 47.9% ('22) pic.twitter.com/vSAd5nAdLQ— Mathew Brownstein (@MBrownstein89) December 1, 2022
It is genuinely a strikeout pitch. Batters whiffed 47.9% of the time against the pitch. In and of itself, it is worth investing in that pitch to see what more the Mets could be getting out of Peterson. That slider is a hidden gem on this Mets staff, and they need to see it in the majors instead of Triple-A.
Put another way, Peterson still has a lot of upside. In many ways, he is still raw and needs more coaching and opportunities. For an older Mets rotation, they actually need Peterson’s upside. They need the younger starter who can surprise and have a good year. Somehow, some way, the Mets just need to get Peterson into the rotation and watch him take that next step because that next step could help the Mets win the World Series.
Looking at the New York Mets rotation, it wasn’t just that it felt they needed another starter. They really needed to add a starter with upside.
Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are both Hall of Famers still pitching like aces. However, they are still towards the end of their careers.
Josè Quintana is a guy who takes it every fifth day and gives you five innings. We saw Carlos Carrasco has become a bit of a Jekyll/Hyde routine between the age and coming back from all the injuries.
Arguably, the Mets would have been fine with one of Tylor Megill or David Peterson. However, the team needs to manufacture pitching depth, and a team who is all-in on winning the World Series needed better.
Ideally, they needed a pitcher who has real upside. Someone who could give them something they didn’t quite have. Well, the Mets found the right guy with Koudai Senga.
Senga signed with the Mets partially because he said he wanted to win now. He’s also well versed in analytics and wants a team who can help him further understand and grow. Mostly, he signed with the Mets because they are now THE destination team in Major League Baseball.
The Mets wanted Senga because he’s been a great pitcher with great stuff. He can hit 102 MPH on the gun and has a pitched dubbed the ghost forkball.
Senga, 29, pitched last season foe the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks of the Japan Pacific League. Over 22 starts, he pitched 144.0 innings (6.2 innings per start). He was 11-6 with a 1.94 RRA, 1.056 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, and a 9.8 K/9.
He completely dominated the Japanese Leagues. He’s one of their best pitchers ever, and we saw a record setting pitcher there.
If you want a downside, people can and will point you to the theory Japanese pitchers don’t translate well to the majors. Of course, that’s complete nonsense.
Sure, a pitcher like Daisuke Matsuzaka was disappointing. There are other examples including the times when the Mets grabbed pitchers like Satoru Komiyama and dubbed him and his ERA always hovering around 4.00 as the Japanese Greg Maddux.
As an aside, how did the Wilpons ever get away with stuff like that.
While the disappointments have been highlighted and discussed ad nauseum, there have been success stories. Hideo Nomo was a good Major League, a Rookie of the Year, an All-Star, and threw to no-hitters. Masahiro Tanaka was a big game pitcher for the New York Yankees.
Japanese pitchers can and will succeed in the majors. There’s no reason to believe with the Mets infrastructure and pitching coach like Jeremy Hefner that Senga won’t succeed.
The Mets needed a pitcher like Senga to take them to the next level. They got him, and now, their chances of winning the World Series have increased exponentially.
After David Wright signed his seven year $122 million contract, we knew he was going to re-write the New York Mets record books, and he did. If not for spinal stenosis, he would have put all the records well out of reach. Unfortunately, he did get injured, and as a result, he did put the records in play.
Other than Tim Healey of Newsday jokingly referring to Nimmo putting the hit by pitch record completely out of reach, we have not heard the same of Brandon Nimmo when he signed his eight year $162 million contract extension. However, that is very much in play.
Remember, Nimmo is now in his prime coming off a career year (in terms of WAR), and now, he has eight years to be able to accumulate stats. Here are the Mets records and how far Nimmo trails:
| Category | Holder | Total | Trails |
| WAR | Wright | 49.2 | 32 |
| GP | Kranepool | 1853 | 1245 |
| Runs | Wright | 949 | 614 |
| Hits | Wright | 1777 | 1247 |
| Doubles | Wright | 390 | 284 |
| Triples | Reyes | 113 | 90 |
| HR | Strawberry | 252 | 189 |
| RBI | Wright | 970 | 757 |
| BB | Wright | 762 | 439 |
| SB | Reyes | 408 | 385 |
| HBP | Nimmo | 57 | – |
Nimmo trails by a good number in most of these categories, but again, he has eight years to make up the difference. Here is what Nimmo would have to average over his eight seasons to go atop the leader-board in each of the respective categories:
| Category | Trails | Average | Career High |
| WAR | 32 | 4 | 5.1 |
| GP | 1245 | 156 | 151 |
| Runs | 614 | 77 | 102 |
| Hits | 1247 | 156 | 159 |
| Doubles | 284 | 36 | 30 |
| Triples | 90 | 12 | 8 |
| HR | 189 | 24 | 17 |
| RBI | 757 | 95 | 64 |
| BB | 439 | 55 | 80 |
| SB | 385 | 48 | 9 |
| HBP | – | – | 22 |
Well, right off the bat, we can say Jose Reyes‘ team records will remain in tact. While both are lead-off hitters, they are completely different ones. As a result, while Nimmo can steal you a base, and he did lead the league in triples this past season, he’s simply never catching Reyes even if we may eventually view Nimmo as the best lead-off hitter in team history.
We can come close to saying Ed Kranepool‘s one remaining team record will remain in tact. With his injury history, it’s safe to say there is just no way we can reasonably expect Nimmo to play 156 games per season. If he plays 151 like he did this past season, that is a win.
Finally, we can be assured Nimmo will not threat Strawberry. Certainly, Pete Alonso may eventually destroy that record, but he is going to have to sign his own extension in the future to do that.
While the aforementioned Mets legends are safe, Wright’s position atop the leader-boards is a little tenuous. On the bright side for Wright, Nimmo shouldn’t be in a position to surpass him in RBI. It also looks like Wright’s doubles lead may be safe but is far from secure.
One thing to remember is going forward Major League Baseball has banned this shift. That creates chances for more hits, and Nimmo should be one of many beneficiaries of this change. As a result, we may seem him make a real run at Wright’s hits lead. With Nimmo’s ability to draw walks, he should claim that record as well, and with all of his times on base, Wright’s runs scored record may also fall.
In a circuitous way, that brings us to WAR, or put another way Wright’s standing as the best position player in Mets history. When Nimmo has played at least 140 games in a season he has surpassed that 4.0 WAR mark. The caveat is he’s only done that twice in his career. However, Nimmo will be a beneficiary of the Mets investments in player health, which is something we saw play out with him playing 151 games this past season.
Nimmo averaging a 4.0 WAR over the next eight seasons is very much in play. With some big seasons early in this contract, he may very well surpass Wright. Of course, who will be seen as the best position player in Mets history is usually more subjective than objective. For example, Wright is universally seen as being a better Met than Strawberry even though Strawberry averaged a higher WAR, was a better higher (higher wRC+), and has a World Series ring partially the result of Strawberry’s postseason success.
The key for Nimmo is health. That is something that eluded him most of his career, and health is the reason why many of Wright’s records are even in reach. In the end, it will be great to see Nimmo try to surpass Wright in all of these categories, and if he does that’s a good thing because it will mean success for him and the team.
Once again, give Steve Cohen credit. The team had no other choice but to sign Brandon Nimmo, and they did it.
With Nimmo now having an eight year $162 million deal, it’s relatively assured he will spend his entire career with the New York Mets. That is not something that happens with the Mets.
Essentially, the list of players who spent their entire careers with the Mets is Ed Kranepool and David Wright. They couldn’t have had more disparate careers.
Kranepool was a 17 year old local boy brought up to the original Mets team. He never panned out, but the weak hitting first baseman played 18 years with the team winning the 1969 World Series.
Kranepool was debating retiring after 1979, but the Mets would make sure of it releasing him prior to his even having an opportunity to retire. He filed free agent papers, but when no one came around, his career was over.
Wright grew up a Mets fan and would one day become captain of the team. If not for spinal stenosis, he’s a sure fire Hall of Famer setting records no Mets player would ever touch. For all we know, the Mets win the World Series in 2015 or another season.
Kranepool was a semi-regular player at best who set records mostly because there were no records before him. Wright was a great player whose career was cut short.
That brings us to Nimmo.
Never before in Mets history have we seen a homegrown lifelong Met retire on his own terms. Kranepool was released, and Wright had spinal stenosis.
Nimmo gets that chance. He could be the one Mets player who finishes his career as wants. He also has a chance to create his own Mets legacy.
Nimmo could be the captain. With the way Cohen is spending, he could have at least one World Series ring. He even has the chance to become the best position player in team history.
Before we get there, he has to stay healthy. Wright couldn’t. He also needs to remain productive. Kranepool couldn’t.
All-in-all, this promises to be a very unique Mets career. Kranepool had M. Donald Grant, and Wright had the Wilpons. Nimmo has Cohen.
This means Nimmo will have a chance for more postseasons than perhaps the two of them combined. With that comes chances for glory.
Every angle you look, this is a unique situation for Nimmo. Mets players don’t get to finish their careers with the team. They don’t have owners and front offices solely dedicated to winning.
Nimmo has that. That really does put Nimmo in a position to be one of the greatest Mets ever. Perhaps, he will be second only to Tom Seaver.
His name will be all over the record books, and he’s assured of passing Wright in multiple categories. He should have the most World Series rings (one ties him for the lead). He could be captain or even see his number retired.
We thought and wanted this for so many Mets. The stars aligned to make Nimmo the guy. Congrats to him, and let’s see how great this all becomes.
One of the challenges the New York Mets have this offseason is rebuilding their rotation to match the one they had which carried them to 101 wins in 2021. That was going to be a challenge with the Mets needing to address four-fifths of the rotation; well, three-fifths after they picked up Carlos Carrasco‘s option.
The rotation was never really going to look the same, but it had to be as good. Arguably, it had to be better with the Mets losing in the Wild Card Series despite their top three starters lined up. The team did take a bit of a step back losing Jacob deGrom, but they responded quickly and perfectly by adding Justin Verlander.
You can say the same about the team signing José Quintana after Taijuan Walker signed with the Philadelphia Phillies.
Walker was a good and surprisingly durable pitcher for the Mets over the past two seasons. He showed flashes of being a top of the rotation starter, but he did have his struggles. Ultimately, he was a number three starter who pitched at the back end of the rotation. He was a very good Met, and the Mets will certainly miss him.
However, the team did rebound with Quintana. Keep in mind with the age of Max Scherzer, Verlander, and Carrasco, Quintana is “only” going to be 34 next season. He has pitched in the majors for 11 years, and the only time he did not make at least 22 starts was 2020 – 2021. One year was the pandemic (he did have an injury that season), and the other he dealt with shoulder issues.
Whatever concerns you may have after that two year stretch were abated when Quintana made 32 starts last season. The downside was he only pitched 165.2 innings meaning he averaged only five innings per start.
Part of that could be related to his coming back from two injury plagued years. He was in the bullpen in 2021, and he was moved back to the rotation. That does require some ease. Another issue is the Pirates are not very analytically advanced limiting their ability to get the most from their starters.
To a certain extent, we saw that play out when Quintana went to the St. Louis Cardinals at the trade deadline. Yes, he only averaged five innings per start, but that was skewed by a few short outings. To be fair, those happened.
Putting all of that aside for a moment, that does not change the fact Quintana took the ball every fifth day. Much like he has the vast majority of his career, he promises to do the same next season. That gives the Mets some certainty with an older rotation as they also seek to manufacture pitching depth this offseason.
With respect to the stuff, well, Quintana doesn’t wow you in any sense. He doesn’t have velocity or great spin. What he does have is the ability to locate and generate weak contact. He also generates a high number of ground balls. Even without the shift, he should be aided by having Francisco Lindor and one of Jeff McNeil or Luis Guillorme up the middle.
In the end, Quintana’s skill-set is enhanced by the defense behind him. The Mets infielders will make him seem a better pitcher, and maybe then, he can go a little deeper into games. Even if he doesn’t, he is going to take the ball every fifth day and give the Mets five solid innings. There is immense value in that, especially for an older rotation, and the Mets will benefit greatly from having signed Quintana.