Musings
The obvious intent of Joe Buck and John Smoltz interviewing Bryce Harper and other players during the All Star Game was for Major League Baseball to better market their stars. Other aspects of the game like the Home Run Derby certainly have accomplished that goal.
Certainly, we have seen players like Ken Griffey, Jr. reach new heights in his fame because of his exploits in the Home Run Derby. We have seen that happen once again as the lasting image from this year’s All Star festivities was Aaron Judge winning the Home Run Derby.
You know what wasn’t accomplished from this year’s All Star Game? Making the other stars in baseball a household name. It begs the question whether baseball can do anything to remedy that.
In endeavoring to answer that question, there are a few caveats. First and foremost, the public arena is much more crowded than the days when Babe Ruth or even Mickey Mantle were the most recognizable sports faces in America. Another issue is ESPN is more dedicated to promoting the NFL and NBA than they are with promoting MLB. That has seemingly always been true of Sports Illustrated as well.
One area baseball where baseball is lagging behind is YouTube. Consider this. When you search for Michael Conforto, one of the bright young stars in the game who just made his first All Star team, there is no MLB sponsored video of his highlights. The odd part is there are many of them, including his World Series heroics:
However, there is no real compilation of all the great things he has done. Conversely, if you search for the Greek Freak, Giannis Antetokounmpo, here is the NBA created compilation of all of his highlights:
The NBA knows what it has in the Greek Freak, and they are more than happy to highlight it. They highlight it despite his playing for a mid-market team. They made it despite his never making it out if the first round of the NBA Playoffs.
Conversely, Conforto is a young star in New York, who had already had a huge moment in a World Series. Don’t think he’s big enough to merit his own highlights? Neither is the Greek Freak in a league of LeBron, Durant, Curry, Harden, etc.
Even if you don’t think Conforto deserves his own highlight reel, there has to be someone in baseball who does. There aren’t any.
Not for Harper. Not for Judge. Not for Mike Trout, Clayton Kershaw, or Noah Syndergaard. None.
And it’s not just one player. Who wouldn’t want to see a video of a collection of epic bat flips? A video of Jose Bautista, Yoenis Cespedes, and whoever else who’s had a huge bat flip.
Point is there’s a number of compilations for both events and players. There aren’t any by MLB on YouTube.
When all baseball talks about is what’s wrong with the game, maybe they should start with marketing its stars. They’re terrible at it, and they always have been. Cutting a highlight video with the highlights from their biggest stars is one of the easiest things they can do.
Show us your best players at their best. Let us see it whenever we want, so we can be drawn to the TV to see those players pull off their next great play.
The narrative is out there that Sandy Alderson hasn’t been drafting well, at least not in the first round. Over the past few years, it was pointed out the Mets passed on Jose Fernandez to draft Brandon Nimmo. The following year the Mets passed on Corey Seager instead drafting Gavin Cecchini. Given the generational talents Fernandez and Seager turned out to be, and the fact Nimmo and Cecchini are still in Triple-A, the narratives just write themselves. The issue is whether the narratives are accurate.
Let’s start with the obvious. The MLB Draft is a draft unlike any other. Most fans are accustomed to the NFL and NBA Drafts where you have seen the players perform in college against other players who are in the same draft. In baseball, you are drafting high school and college players who are pitching against or using metal bats. In some ways, it is a completely different game. This is just one example of the many challenges that faces a team when they draft.
Despite that, fans seemingly are playing the woulda-shoulda game when it comes to the draft. There is at least the first round of the Major League Draft is more of a given and the rest of the draft is more of a crapshoot. For a moment, let’s assume that’s correct. There are a number of factors we can use to determine draft success, but for the sake of the argument, lets use WAR. Specifically, let’s use WAR accumulated for all first round picks from 2011 – 2015. The parameters were set as 2011 was Alderson’s first draft with the Mets and no draft pick from 2016 has made the majors. Here is the leaderboard:
| Rank | Team | WAR | Avg. Draft Position* |
| 1 | Astros | 30.7 | 3.5 |
| 2 | Cubs | 22.7 | 6 |
| 3 | Athletics | 17.2 | 19.6 |
| 4 | Marlins | 15.4 | 8.6 |
| 5 | Cardinals | 15.0 | 23 |
| 6 | Nationals | 14.3 | 15.8 |
| 7 | Indians | 14.1 | 13.2 |
| 8 | Mets | 13.3 | 11.5 |
| 9 | Rockies | 11.8 | 8.8 |
| 10 | Red Sox | 11.4 | 20 |
*NOTE: average draft position does not include Compensation or Competitive Balance Picks
Looking over the list, the Mets first round draft picks have accumulated the eight most WAR in the majors over the past six years. Looking over their average draft position, there have only been four Major League teams that have outperformed them. When you delve a little deeper, the Mets first rounds look better than anticipated.
Even with Kevin Plawecki being unable to stick at the major league level, the Mets have had five of their six first round draft picks reach the majors. In fact, the Mets are the only team who have seen all of their first round picks in either AAA or the majors. Once there is a trade, either of Lucas Duda or Dominic Smith, the Mets will have all six of their first round picks make the majors, which is a great accomplishment.
That’s another important consideration. Smith, Nimmo, and Cecchini have not had the opportunity to succeed or fail in the majors. With respect to Nimmo and Cecchini, both have shown they’re not over-matched as the major league level. Nimmo has been a phenomenal pinch hitter hitting .438/.550/.438 in 20 pinch hitting appearances. Before being sent back down, Cecchini had a four game hitting streak that included a home run off of Clayton Kershaw.
Keep in mind, this doesn’t even include Michael Conforto who took the next step in his development this year, and he has shown himself to be an All Star caliber player.
The overriding point is these are talented players who have a major league future. Let’s let them continue to develop and reach their full potential. Once we see them on the field, we can judge them at that point. We can also fully judge Sandy’s drafts at that point.
Mets uber prospect Amed Rosario has been extremely busy of late. Last weekend, he had to fly out from Albuquerque, New Mexico to Miami, Florida to be the starting shortstop in the Future’s Game. From there, Rosario would fly out to Tacoma, Washington to be the starting shortstop in the Triple-A All Star Game. Over the past week, Rosario literally played shortstop from coast to coast.
It seems everyone wants him to play shortstop for their team. That is everyone but the Mets.
As it turns out, Mets fans aren’t the only ones perplexed over why Rosario is in Triple-A. Former Major Leaguer Billy Ripken was puzzled why Rosario was in the Triple-A All Star Game instead of playing in Flushing. MLB Pipeline‘s Jim Callis pointed out Rosario is ready to be an everyday shortstop at the major league level right now.
On the very first play of the game, Rosario showed us all why he is major league ready. On a routine fly ball to medium depth left field, Rosario was in position to make the play himself. Later in the game, he stole a base against Rays prospect Mike Marjama, who has throw out 48% of base stealers this year. Overall, in a game where he was 0-4, Rosario showed the skills that will make him a special major league player.
Watching the Future’s Game and the Triple-A All Star Game, you realize there are just no excuses remaining why Rosario is not in the majors right now.
We know he can hit. On the season, he is hitting .327/.365/.474 with 16 doubles, seven triples, seven homers, and 52 RBI with 16 stolen bases. Over his past nine games, he is hitting .415/.432/.537 with a double, two triples, three RBI, and three stolen bases.
We know he’s an upgrade defensively. Mets shortstops have combined to post a -15 DRS, which is the worst in the majors. Seeing his range, and the scouting reports, Rosario has the range to play the position, and play it quite well. He would be a boon to a pitching staff that has been struggling.
And it’s not like the Mets shortstops have been making up for the poor fielding with their bats. The shortstops have combined for an 85 wRC+. That’s why their -0.4 combined WAR is the among the worst in all of baseball. Arguably, anyone would have been an upgrade. Rosario should be a massive upgrade even if he struggles out of the gate.
Between him being an upgrade and the Super Two deadline having passed a long time ago, it really is time for Rosario to come up to the majors. The Mets need his offense and defense. Rosario could also benefit from being mentored by Jose Reyes and Asdrubal Cabrera. Considering the Mets are intent on selling, the time for such an arrangement could possibly be dwindling. Between that and the Mets coming up on a soft part of the schedule now is a good time to call him up.
Now would be a good time for the Mets to find out why everyone but them want Rosario to be their shortstop.
Now that the first half of the baseball season has ceremoniously ended with the American League beating the National League in the All Star Game, it is time to see what the second half of the season looks like for the Mets.
At the moment, the Mets currently sit at fourth place in the National League East with a 39-47 record. They are 12 games behind the Nationals in the Division, and they are 10.5 games behind the Colorado Rockies for the second Wild Card. In addition to the Rockies, the Mets also trail the Cubs, Cardinals, Braves, Pirates, and Marlins.
In the second half of the season, the Mets have 68 games remaining with them split-up evenly between the home and road. At home, the Mets opponents have a combined .511 winning percentage. Their road opponents have a .499 winning percentage. The combined winning percentage of all of their opponents is .505.
The respective winning percentages are skewed by the Mets having a home series against the Dodgers and the Mets having a road series against the Astros. Taking those two series out of the equation, the respective winning percentages fall to .494 at home, .481 on the road, and .488 combined. More to the point, if the Mets can just hold their own in those six games, the Mets have a slate of winnable games in front of them.
The question is whether the Mets will have enough to win those winnable games. At the moment, the Mets are planning to sell. If there are takers, the Mets will likely part ways with Jay Bruce, Asdrubal Cabrera, Lucas Duda, Curtis Granderson, and Addison Reed. If any one of these players are moved, the Mets chances of winning games will likely take a hit. That goes double for Reed, who right now is the only reliable arm in the bullpen.
But maybe the Mets don’t sell.
Right out of the break, the Mets host the Rockies and the Cardinals. The Rockies are in the middle of a stretch that has seen them lost 13 of their last 17 games. It’s not exactly like the Rockies lost just against the best teams in baseball either. They were swept by the Giants, and they split a series with the Reds.
The Mets did just play a close series against the Cardinals. There is a legitimate reason to believe that with a different setting in Citi Field, the Mets could flip the script. That becomes more feasible when you consider the Cardinals are a dismal road team.
After that, Mets get to face the Athletics and Padres who are two of the worst teams in baseball. At that point, it is certainly possible the Mets could be in a different position come trade deadline time. Maybe the Mets will be in a position to add to the bullpen rather than decimate it with a Reed trade. As we see, they certainly have some pieces to trade to do that.
Ultimately, that has been the frustrating part of this season. The door has been open the whole time, and the Mets have yet to truly enter into a race for the postseason. The good news is there are about two weeks until the trade deadline. At that point, the Mets will have a clear direction.
They will be either gearing up for another improbable run to the postseason, or they will have a youth movement with the Mets finally giving a chance to Amed Rosario, Dominic Smith, and Gavin Cecchini.
To that end, no matter what happens over the next couple of weeks, the fans will have reason to watch in August and September. You will either have a team racing for the postseason supplemented by players coming back from injury, or they will have some young players beginning to make their mark on the league.
Everyone has an opinion on why the All Star Game isn’t as popular anymore. For some, it is due to the free agency because it allows players to shift leagues. For others, Interleague Play has taken the fun out of the one time we see American Leaguers play National Leaguers. Finally, there is a case the accessibility of games with cable and the internet takes some of the interest out of the All Star Game because you can see the best players of the game whenever you want.
Despite the passing interest, for me, it is always exciting when you see a young Mets player make his way to the All Star Game for the first time.
Back in 2006, we saw David Wright help launch himself into superstardom. In his first ever All Star at-bat, he hit a homer. In 2013, Matt Harvey got the the start before the home crowd, and he pumped up the home faithful with two scoreless innings. It was Jacob deGrom‘s turn in 2015 when he became the story of that All Star Game striking out the side with just 10 pitches.
Now, it is Michael Conforto‘s turn.
The last time he was on a big stage was the 2015 World Series. In that World Series, he was one of the best Mets on the field with a .333 batting average. In Game Four, Conforto had seemingly propelled the Mets into tying the series hitting two home runs. The point being Conforto will not shy away from being on the big stage. This is his chance to once again make a name for himself.
What better time to do it than right now for the 24 year old budding star. He will be on a field with the biggest names in the game. Right now, Bryce Harper, Jose Altuve, Daniel Murphy, Buster Posey, Nolan Arenado, Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, and even Aaron Judge are his peers. Like Wright, Harvey, and deGrom before him, Conforto has a chance to have a moment tonight that sets himself apart, to have the whole world take notice.
We know Conforto is capable. We’ve seen him do it. He has been great all year hitting .284/.403/.542 with 14 homers and 41. That is why he is the youngest Mets outfielder to be named an All Star since Darryl Strawberry. That is why I’ll be watching tonight.
Tonight can very well be Conforto’s moment, and I can’t wait to see it happen.
For those that don’t follow the Mets minor league system closely, Thursday was about as bad a day as one organization could possibly have.
The day began with the Mets announcing Cameron Planck, last year’s 11th round draft pick, is going to undergo season ending shoulder surgery. Planck is undergoing shoulder surgery before ever throwing a pitch as a professional.
Ironically, the Mets didn’t pitch him last year to protect his arm. The Mets invested heavily in the high school arm paying him $1,000,001 to keep him from going to the University of Louisville.
Before the surgery, Planck had a mid-90s fastball, a terrific change, and a developing knuckle curve. Hopefully, he can not only be this pitcher once again, but also fulfill the destiny he had as a potential front line starter.
Another potential front line starter in the Mets organization is Thomas Szapucki.
Last year, Szapucki was 4-3 with a 1.38 ERA, 0.885 WHIP, and a 14.9 WHIP in nine starts between Kingsport and Brooklyn. The 21 year old lefty has a mid to high 90s fastball and a curveball that baffled both right-handed and left-handed batters alike.
Things have not gone as well for him this year. His 2017 season was delayed due to a shoulder impingement in his pitching arm. After five good starts, Szapucki left Thursday’s game.
Initially, it was believed he left the game in relation to his getting hit with a line drive. No such luck. As it turns out, Szapucki left the game with left forearm discomfort. Many times a pitcher’s complaints of forearm discomfort is a precursor to Tommy John surgery.
If that’s the case, on one day, the Mets may have lost two pitchers who were on the path to one day being top of the rotation starters for the major league club.
While we rightly focus on the issues the major league rotation has had staying healthy, there needs to be focus on the Mets inability to keep their minor league pitchers healthy. If the past few seasons is any example, the Mets NEED a strong group of minor league starters when the major leaguers get hurt.
More than that, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Jacob deGrom are not that far off from free agency. Should any of them depart, the Mets need someone to take their place.
Szapucki and Planck should be front and center among internal candidates. Hopefully, Thursday will not stand in the way of that happening.
In a report by Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, the Washington Nationals are interested in obtaining Addison Reed from the New York Mets at the trade deadline. However, Cafardo also notes the Mets may not be inclined to trade Reed to the Nationals.
If true, this makes little sense.
Reed is a pending free agent. If the Mets do not trade him at the trade dealine, the best they can recoup for him is a second round draft pick, and that is only if the Mets were inclined to extend him a qualifying offer. When you consider the qualifying offer for last year was set at $16.7 million, it seems like the amount will be too high for the Mets taste. As a result, the Mets will likely lose Reed as a free agent with nothing in return if they do not move him at the trade deadline.
If the Mets are indeed trading him because the team is selling, there should be one and only one guiding principle in making a trade – Make the best trade possible. It should not matter if that team is the Yankees or the Nationals.
In fact, the Mets have already benefited from making a trade with the Nationals. On the eve of the 2015 season, the Mets traded outfielder Matt den Dekker for LOOGY Jerry Blevins. For his part, Blevins was lights out for the Mets that season before breaking his arm. With a good relationship already established, the Mets and Blevins have agreed to two different one year deals since. In Blevins time with the Mets, he is 9-2 with two saves, a 2.76 ERA, 1.187 WHIP, and a 11.4 K/9.
Where would the Mets have been if they refused to make an intra-division trade back then?
Speaking of the 2015 season, the Mets moved prospects John Gant and Robert Whalen for Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson. Uribe and KJ were both important members of the 2015 team. Again in 2016, the Mets acquired KJ from the Braves. Again, KJ was an extremely important part of a Mets team that made the postseason.
In 2015, the Mets made two trades with division rivals, and those two trades helped them win the pennant. Now that they are selling, they should once again be willing to trade with teams in the division. The only guiding principle in making a move is to judge whether the trade is the best return the Mets can get for a particular player.
Will seeing the Nationals win the World Series with Daniel Murphy, Reed, or anyone else the Nationals may acquire from the Mets? Absolutely. However, wouldn’t getting a top prospect like Victor Robles patrolling center field for a World Series winning Mets teams more than ease that pain? Again, absolutely.
Now, can the Mets get Robles for Reed? Probably not. Then again, seeing the prospects got in exchange for Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman last year, it’s possible. That being said, if the Nationals won’t give up a prospect of the caliber of Robles, someone may very well do so. Again, the overriding point here is the Mets need to make the best trade possible . . . even if that trade is with the Nationals.
If the Mets are really looking to sell, it is time to get rid of everyone that doesn’t have a contract beyond this season. This means the Mets should part ways with Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda, Curtis Granderson, Addison Reed, and Rene Rivera. Once Neil Walker is healthy enough to play, the Mets should trade him as well. With the Mets having team options on both Jerry Blevins and Asdrubal Cabrera, they should also get moved in the right trade.
But it’s not just the players. The Mets should also part ways with Terry Collins.
When Collins signed his two year contract in the wake of the 2015 World Series, Collins had indicated it could very well be his last. Even if Collins relented from that position, with each game, it becomes clearer and clearer that Collins will no longer be in the dugout for the Mets in 2018. If that is the case, the Mets should part ways with Collins sooner rather than later.
The perfect time would be as the Mets head into the All Star Break. This could allow the Mets to re-calibrate the coaching staff. Internally, the Mets have some managerial candidates.
First base coach Tom Goodwin was given the opportunity to manage in the Arizona Fall Leauge this past offseason. While he was removed from the Mets coaching staff in the offseason, Tim Teufel has remained with the organization. Both are certainly candidates for the managerial job should it ever open, and both should provide the Mets with as smooth a transition as possible.
There are also minor league managers Luis Rojas and Pedro Lopez. With the Mets likely turning to young players like Gavin Cecchini, Brandon Nimmo, Amed Rosario, and Dominic Smith, it would be helpful to have a manager with whom they are familiar to ease their transition as everyday players in the majors.
It would also serve as an opportunity to see how any of the aforementioned would serve as a manager at the major league level. If you like what you see with the replacement, you have your answer as to who should be the Mets manager in the future. If that person doesn’t perform well, you at least know you need to move on from that manager and look in a different direction.
Point is if the Mets aren’t going anywhere, they should best utilize that time. That means giving young players an opportunity to establish themselves as everyday players at the major league level. That should also mean finding out who the manager should be in 2018.
It’s time for the Mets to thank Collins for his service as the Mets manager, and possibly find a role for him in the organization. It’s time to close the chapter on his Mets managerial career, and it is time to usher in a new era of Mets baseball.
Ever since the Mets parted ways with Justin Turner and Daniel Murphy, it is as if the Mets former second baseman have made it a point to show the Mets why they were wrong to get rid of them. Not only are both drastically improved players, but they also make it a point to beat up on the Mets.
Since joining the Dodgers in 2014, Turner is a .309/.381/.509 hitter who hit 27 homers and 90 RBI last season accumulating a 16.9 WAR. His 147 wRC+ is the best in baseball in that time frame among Major League third baseman. In his 21 regular season games against the Mets, Turner is hitting .290/.380/.551 with six doubles, four homers, and 12 RBI.
As we remember from the 2015 NLDS, he was the Dodgers offense hitting .526/.550/.842 with six doubles, and four RBI. Fortunately for the Mets, they had Murphy, who had one the best postseason runs in Major League history. Unfortunately, the Mets have parted ways with Murphy as well.
Since leaving the Mets, Murphy has become an MVP candidate. In one plus seasons, Murphy has hit .342/.390/.585 with 72 doubles, seven triples, 39 homers, and 159 RBI with an 8.4 WAR. He leads all major league second baseman in batting average, OBP, OPS, doubles, and wRC+. Simply put, he’s the best hitting second baseman in the majors.
He’s put that on display in his games against the Mets. In 30 games against the Mets, Murphy is hitting .388/.438/.698 with 10 doubles, a triple, eight homers, and 29 RBI.
Each and every time Turner and Murphy batter the Mets, the debate is sparked over why the Mets let both players walk in the first place.
The defenders of Sandy Alderson fall back on the position that no one could have reasonably foresaw the production from either one of these players. In his four years with the Mets, Turner was a .265/.326/.370 hitter who was nothing more than a utility player. Murphy was a much better hitter than Turner with the Mets hitting .288/.331/.424. There were spurts with Murphy where he was a 2014 All Star and his 2015 postseason run, but you’d be hard pressed to argue he’d be a better hitter than Jose Altuve and Robinson Cano.
So yes, you could point to those stats and say no one could have foreseen Turner and Murphy becoming the best hitters at their position since leaving the Mets. However, why is this is a defense of Sandy Alderson?
Isn’t Alderson tasked with identifying talented players and predicting who will improve and who will regress? Shouldn’t it be part of his job to put coaches in place that best helps cultivate the talent on his roster? More importantly, how could it be a General Manager whiffs on evaluating two players who were under his control? Put another way, how is it that Sandy Alderson didn’t know what he had in Turner and Murphy?
For all the good Sandy has done, especially getting Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud for R.A. Dickey, he has failed here.
We can make all the excuses we want for him, but it doesn’t change the fact he let two extremely talented players, who were with his team, slip out from under their fingers. Even if you argue the other General Managers didn’t see this coming, those other General Managers did not have Turner and Murphy on their roster.
Worse yet, the Mets need help now at second and third base right now. More than that, they need an answer for those positions going forward. It’s time to stop giving Sandy a pass for his failure to see what Turner and Murphy would become. After all, that is literally what his job is as a General Manager.
