Musings

Rafael Montero – Forever a Met

It seemed like finally . . . FINALLY . . . Rafael Montero was about to pitch himself off the Mets roster.  This was a long day coming for Mets fans who watched him go 6-16 with a 5.38 ERA, 1.705 WHIP, and a 5.2 BB/9 over parts of four years with the Mets.  It was a frustrating experience to watch him continuously go out and pitch and seemingly be afraid to throw a strike.

What is even more maddening about his was he was once more highly regarded than Jacob deGrom.  Remember, if Montero was healthy in 2014, it was possible deGrom would have been moved to the bullpen.  That would have largely negated deGrom’s chances of winning the Rookie of the Year, and who knows what the long term ramifications would have been for the Mets organization.

That 2014 injury was an oblique injury.  In the ensuing seasons, we have heard him complain of shoulder issues.  The result was always the same.  He complained, and the Mets would find nothing except “regular inflammation” associated with pitching.  Montero would eventually go out, and he’d pitch.  Except he wouldn’t pitch like the top prospect the Mets believed him to be.  Rather, he looked skittish and afraid to throw a strike.

Now that we have the news Montero has a complete tear of his UCL which will likely require season ending Tommy John surgery.  We at least have to contemplate if Montero’s issues were really injury and not a talent or mental issue.

Look, the Mets record on handling injuries is disgustingly poor.  Time and again, we have seen pressure injured players to play, and we have seen them make mistake after mistake after mistake while learning nothing.  Just look at last year.  The Mets believed Matt Harvey would not be at full strength until May.  The team originally wanted to have Zack Wheeler start the year in Extended Spring Training.  However, when there were other injuries, the team opted to push these two to pitch instead of looking to grab a Scott Feldman off the scrap head and offer him a Major League job.

No, the Mets gambled on the core of their team, and they wound up losing both pitchers to stress reactions.  The most disturbing discovery was the muscles in Harvey’s pitching shoulder had actually atrophied.  That might not have been the case had the team let Harvey get to full strength.

Overall, the Mets have continued to mishandle the injury issues with their pitchers.  They don’t require Noah Syndergaard to get an MRI before a start.  They challenge Steven Matz to pitch through what was described as a massive bone spur in his pitching elbow.  Through all of it, the team wound up with further injured pitchers who provided diminishing returns.

Maybe that was the case all along with Montero.  Maybe not.  What we do know is he’s going to stick around long enough for the Mets to discover if it was how they handled his injuries rather than how they handled his development.

Mets Blogger Roundtable: Our Expectations For the 2018 Season

Well, Opening Day is a week away, and Mets fans are getting excited for Mets baseball.  Whether this will turn out to be 2015 or 2017 again remains to be seen.  Depending on your point of view, you could argue the Mets winning the World Series just as competently as you could argue them having to once again sell at the trade deadline.  With this season really up in the air, we turned to our Roundtable, and we asked them what they expect the Mets to do in 2018:

Roger Cormier (Good Fundies & Fangraphs)

What do I expect? I expect hope. Pain. Happiness. Sadness. Great tweets. Bad tweets. Excitement. Anger. A reminder of the second half of 2015. A reminder of moments. “Payroll flexibility”. Health. Injuries. Complicated high fives. Announcers giggling. Anxiety. Feats of power. Feats of nonsense. And I dunno, 83 regular season wins?

Mark Healey (Gotham Baseball)

I know I am being optimistic, but I actually think Mets will be in contention for a wildcard all year, and if the rotation is healthy, could push the Nats for the NL East. I don’t say this as a Mets fanboy (and I think my record is very clear on how critical I can be), but as someone who believes the new on-field regime can take this club to whole new level. A competent manager who understands pitching, a bench coach who clearly knows what he’s doing, and a pitching coach who’s proven he can do more with less, for the first time since Bobby V and Bob Apodaca changed the culture in 1997, this team has the right guys in place. 90 wins.

Joe Maracic (Loud Egg)

It may be my lack of sleep from having a 1 year old, but I believe the Mets will win the East. Before the past few seasons started if the Mets were predicted to win, they lose. This year looks good for us, especially if at least 3 out of the 5 starting pitchers stay healthy.

Michael Mayer (MMO & MMN)

I expect the Mets to contend for Wild Card, though if the rotation returns to health and productivity we could see them at least hang around late in the season for the division.

I believe the Mets left side of the infield defensively is going to give the pitching staff a little boost as well.

If that rings true, the key to the season could come down to what Sandy Alderson does at the deadline to fill needs.

Metstradamus (Metstradums Blog)

For your latest, my expectation is 84 wins, factoring in reasonable injury expectation. This bullpen has the ability to make a lot of starters unhappy and that will keep the win total down. Come back to me if they sign Greg Holland.

Greg Prince (Faith and Fear in Flushing)

The Mets’ general creakiness at several positions concerns me, as does their tendency toward fragility, but what fun is pessimism? The Mets will compete better and longer than they did last year, and let the wins pile up from there.

James Schapiro (Shea Bridge Report)

I can’t answer these questions, because I’m a Mets fan, and I’ve always – literally, always – been convinced that we’re a few pieces, at most, away from being a pennant-winner. Look at this team – we’ve got what could be a very solid rotation, a lineup that could rake if the dice fall the right way, and a guy who has the potential to be a top closer in baseball when he’s healthy. Are things going to go that well? You tell me (the answer is no). But what fun is it to go through all the nightmare scenarios and predict which one will happen? For now, I’m sticking with the optimistic scenario: we come out of nowhere and shock the world. Doesn’t it sound both desperately far-fetched and surprisingly realistic?

Mets Daddy

Like most Mets fans, I’m an optimist on Opening Day.  Right now, I expect Todd Frazier to be the 1999 Robin Ventura.  I foresee Matt Harvey putting his career back together.  I am all the more excited watching Michael Conforto healthy and already hitting homers.  If you ask me right now, I’m going to say World Series contender.

Putting my enthusiasm aside, I’ll say this – The NL East is a little more open than we originally believed it to be.  Daniel Murphy wont’ be ready for Opening Day, and who knows when he’ll come back.  For that matter, who knows what he’ll be when he returns.  No one can reasonably expect Ryan Zimmerman to produce like he did last year.  It was an outlier.  The Nationals are relying way too much on Michael Taylor having figured it out, and Matt Wieters isn’t good behind or at the plate.  Also, they lost Dusty Baker, who was a manager who seemed to resonate with that clubhouse.

We take for granted the Nationals will win the division because the Mets have so many question marks and because we have seen the Nationals have great year after great year.  They may very well have another one, but it’s far from a certainty.  Immaculately, I think this is a closer race than we may have originally thought it to be.

So overall, the Mets Bloggers seem to be a little more bullish on the Mets than many other places.  If you are curious why they feel this way, please click on the links next to their names to see their superb work which expounds upon their opinions about the Mets further.

Mets Should Bat Rosario Ninth

In 46 games as a rookie last year, Amed Rosario hit just .248/.271/.394.  Part of that was fueled by his being a rookie adapting to Major League Baseball.  Another part of that was Rosario’s drawing just three walks in 170 plate appearances.  What is scary is there is evidence to suggest Rosario may be due for a regression from these numbers.

Eno Sarris, then of Fangraphs, found Rosario had troubling exit velocities and launch angles.  There is also the fear Rosario’s .330 BABIP will stabilize.  Also, it shouldn’t be lost on anyone Rosario walked just three times in 170 plate appearances.

Arguably, the walk rate was the biggest issue with his biggest issue.  In Double-A, his walk rate was just 7.6%, and in Triple-A, his walk rate was only 5.4%.  Overall, this means the low walk rate is who Rosario is right now as a player.  That is troubling, and for the moment, it should make you question where Rosario should hit in the lineup.

Believe it or not, there are some who see him as either an option to lead-off or the future lead-off hitter for this team.  To be fair, we did see some glimpses of his being a Jose Reyes type of electric lead-off hitter.  However, with his walk rate and OBP, Rosario should not be hitting anywhere near the top of the lineup.

Given his production, you can argue Rosario should be hitting eighth in the lineup.  It’s not a far-fetched idea with him arguably being the worst hitter in this lineup.  Still, you have to question if this would really be what is best for his long term development.  You would be really hard-pressed to argue having a pitcher protecting him in the lineup would help him see better pitches and/or help him work on his ability to draw walks.

Taking everything into account, the Mets really should consider hitting Rosario ninth in the lineup.

By doing this, you are putting Rosario in a much better position to succeed.  Instead of a pitcher protecting him in the lineup, he would have someone like Brandon Nimmo or even Michael Conforto.  With the pitcher in front of him, there will be more than a few occasions where Rosario will bat with a runner in scoring position and first base open.  That’s quite an advantageous hitting situation.

Similar to what Bobby Valentine did with Roger Cedeno in 1999, this could also help Rosario prepare to be a leadoff hitter.  With Rosario batting ninth, there may be more than one occasion where he leads off the ensuing inning after the pitcher makes the final out.  More than that, when he comes to the plate, Rosario will be able to do so with a table setter’s mentality.  After all, with Yoenis Cespedes likely batting second, Rosario will need to find a way to get on base ahead of the run producers to put him in a position to score.

Ultimately, so long as Rosario is able to mentally prepare himself for hitting ninth, this is the ideal lineup position for him to start the year.  Should Rosario begin to hit or he show an ability to being drawing walks, the Mets can then find a more prestigious spot in the lineup for him.  Until such time, let him both learn how to best utilitze his speed as a table setter and permit him to be better protected in the lineup.

 

Five Aces Will Finally Pitch In The Same Rotation

With Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz starting the year in Triple-A, and the Mets discovering Zack Wheeler tore his UCL on the eve of Spring Training, we knew the Five Aces weren’t going to pitch in the same rotation in 2015.  After winning the pennant that year, the Mets set their sights on 2016 to be the year the team not only won the World Series, but also as the year their plan would all come to fruition.

That was until Wheeler had a number of set-backs costing him the entire 2016 season.  But it was more than just Wheeler.  Matt Harvey would have a lost season culminating with a Thoracic Outlet Syndrome diagnosis.  Jacob deGrom needed ulnar nerve transplantation surgery.  Matz had one of his typically injury plagued seasons with him needing season ending surgery to remove what was described as a massive bone spur from his pitching elbow.

That made 2017 the year . . . until it wasn’t.  Despite many believing neither Harvey nor Wheeler were ready to begin the season in the rotation, they ultimately did due to injuries.  However, that did not mean the Five Aces would not begin the year in the same rotation as Matz once again had elbow issues.

After Matz, it was Syndergaard with a torn lat.  Then Harvey and Wheeler would each go down with stress reactions to their pitching arms.  While not confirmed, this may have been the result of them team pushing them too hard to start the season.  Ultimately, after 13 starts, the Mets discovered what was wrong with Matz; he had the same nerve injury deGrom had the previous season.

This offseason was the offseason the Mets front office became more realistic.  The team signed Todd Frazier to play third base all but admitted David Wright would not be able to play this season, and the team signed Jason Vargas.  With Vargas lined up to the the third or fourth starter, the Mets were effectively announcing the Five Aces dream was finally dead.

Except, ironically, it isn’t.  And I say ironically because it is an injury that has allowed the dream to be revived.

With Vargas needing surgery to remove a fractured hamate bone, the Mets need to replace him for at least two turns through the rotation.  This means that Wheeler, who was a candidate to move to the bullpen, or Matz, who was considered to start the year in Extended Spring Training, will likely both find themselves in the same rotation with Syndergaard, deGrom, and Harvey.

Finally, it is all coming to plan even if those plans are two to three years late.

After seeing how each pitchers pitches in their starts, and with Vargas’ timetable not being completely set in stone, who knows what will happen.  Maybe this will last for two turns, the first half, or the full season.  With the Mets and their handling of injuries, you never know.  The only thing we do know is against all odds, the Five Aces will pitch in the same rotation.

That’s no small feat given all of their respective obstacles.  This is a great thing for Mets fans to see as well because we have been waiting years to see this.  And for slightly older Mets fans, this is cathartic because we never did get to see Generation K (Jason Isringhausen, Paul Wilson, and Bill Pulsipher) ever pitch in the same rotation.

We’ll now see it with the Five Aces.  Let the fun begin.

Mets Blogger Roundtable: Our Favorite David Wright Moments

This past week it was announced David Wright was going to be shut down for roughly two months before he can once again resume baseball activities.  It was once again a blow to Wright’s attempt to get back on the field.   As Mets fans and David Wright fans, this was a blow to the chances of seeing one of our favorite players on the field again. It is a cause to feel a bit melancholy.

However, it is also a reminder of all the great moments Wright had during his Mets career.  To that end, instead of lamenting all the problems which have befallen Wright, in the latest Mets Blogger Roundtable, we endeavor to highlight the greatness of David Wright by focusing on our favorite moments of his career:

Roger Cormier (Good Fundies & Fangraphs)

David Wright just found out he was about to play in his first World Series after 12 seasons of playing professional baseball. He probably wanted to (gently) hug each and every one of his teammates for helping him get to the promised land, but he’s David Wright, and Sam Ryan wanted thirty seconds of his time. So it was on television he first saw it: a Mets cap with the World Series logo on it. Thanks to his spinal stenosis, he probably worked incredibly hard just to get out of bed that morning, let alone to play that night. His smile was the most genuine smile in the history of smiles, Smile Hall of Fame first ballot stuff. We are told hard work pays off, that there is a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, and the eyes of the nicest man in the world told the nicest man in the world the shocking discovery: sometimes it’s true.

Mark Healey (Gotham Baseball)

In a 2010 Gotham Baseball piece, Healey wrote why Wright is his favorite baseball player.  For him, it wasn’t just what Wright did on the field, but rather it was something Wright said.

Joe Maracic (Loud Egg)

My favorite David Wright memory was when he was first called up. Watching him and Jose Reyes play side by side was so great even Yankee fans were jealous of our young infield.

Remember the argument, who had the better infield? Ahh the good old days. The sky was the limit… then the injuries.

Greg Prince (Faith and Fear in Flushing)

On Friday night, August 26, 2005, David Wright came up with nobody on in the second inning at what was then SBC Park in San Francisco and homered off Kevin Correia to give the Mets a 1-0 lead that held up the rest of the way.

At the time, the win put the Mets eight over .500 for the first time since 2000, which was important in their bid for a Wild Card. The larger story of the game itself was Steve Trachsel returning from the DL and throwing eight shutout innings — and the Mets bullpen not blowing it.

But the reason I bring it up here is the feeling I had, that after a lifetime of the Mets losing games to teams for whom the difference was their having that one ultimately unstoppable homegrown young superstar hitter who just kept getting better, we finally had one of those guys.

David Wright never really had a prime in the classic sense. His career’s launch angle was promising, but the peak years that were supposed to come in the middle got lost in the clouds. Before we knew it, the climax was obscured by the denouement.

Yet that sense that he was already very good and was constantly getting better, which lasted several seasons, was prime enough while it was going on, no more so than on that Friday night in San Francisco.

I think also that while he was having his best years early, he was always so deferential to his veteran teammates, thus it was hard to think of those seasons as his prime or peak. Alas, they were. And, again, they were very, very good. I just wish there had been a few more.

James Schapiro (Shea Bridge Report)

When I was 12, I got Swine Flu, got my head smashed open with a flying ping pong paddle, and got diagnosed with epilepsy, all over a few weeks in the middle of the summer. Meanwhile, David Wright was coming back from being beaned by Matt Cain, in the midst of a season when he’d already moved into a ridiculously-proportioned Citi Field and lost all of his protection in the lineup. I turned out fine, and Wright did eventually come back from that beaning, although there’s an argument to be made that it was the first of a long train of injuries that led to where we are today. But we both made it back. And that, to me, is why we love David Wright so much.

My favorite memory of David Wright? His entire career. All the comebacks, the clutch hits, the home runs, the smiles. The grace and respect, the humility, the resilience, the leadership. The fighting back from injury, the dealing with a malcontent owner, the squeaky-clean image even on teams whose images have been far short of ideal. Pick one moment? That’s like asking to pick which bite of a Shake Shack burger is the best. You can’t. It all runs together, because Wright’s career, together, is what makes him David Wright.

I’ve seen him drive in winning runs, make diving stops at third, barehand bunts and fire them over to first, and shoot line drives down the first base line as if there was nothing too it. But other players can do those things too. But there’s no other David Wright.

So, my favorite memory of David Wright? His whole career, what’s gone and what’s yet to come. Being able to watch him play since 2004. Having a baseball hero I could be proud of. Having a captain who embodied the role. And knowing, every day since July 21st, 2004, and hopefully for a good few more years, that we had a guy who loved playing baseball more than anything else, and wanted nothing more than to take the field for his team — our team — and play the game the right way, the only way he knew.

To understand, Schapiro’s love of Wright all the more, please read Ballad of David Wright and The Captain and the Epileptic Chopstick pieces.

Mets Daddy

 It’s odd.  There are many moments which probably should be my favorite moment.  I was there when he hit a game winner off of Mariano Rivera.  I was also there when he hit the first regular season and first World Series home run in Citi Field history.  However, when I think back on his career, one moment sticks out above all the rest.

In what was a magical 2006 regular season, we saw Wright begin to emerge as a real and not just an emerging star.  For him it all seemed to coalesce around the All Star Game.  He was voted as the starter over players like Miguel Cabrera.  He was not only a surprising inclusion in the Home Run Derby, but also a finalist with him losing out to Ryan Howard. Heading into the game itself, the Mets, and especially David Wright, were on the forefront of everyone’s minds.

With that prologue, Wright stepped in against Kenny Rogers in the bottom of the second inning, and he hit a laser which cleared the fences for a solo home run.  It was almost as if with that homer Wright was announcing to the baseball world he’s now a star, and the Mets were going to be a force to be reckoned with for years to come.

As an aside, it was great to see Wright hit that homer off the man who walked Andruw Jones.

Overall, when I think of all the great moments of Wright’s career, I think back to that one.  That was the moment when he played with the same joy and enthusiasm Mets fans had watching him.  It was a time when everything seemed possible.

In case, you have noticed, Michael Ganci of Daily Stache has not participated in the last two roundtables.  He has a really good reason for not participating as he got married over the weekend..  On behalf of myself and all those who participate in the roundtable, we wish him and his wife a lifetime of happiness.

Lamenting Toys R Us Closing

While Toys R Us may not want to announce it publicly, all signs indicate the toy store is going to close it’s doors sooner rather than later.  When that happens, it is going to mean there is no real large scale toy shop in the United States.  This is just horrible news.

It really is even if I share many of the complains you have had about the toy giant.  The customer service has never been great.  Their entire business model pushes it’s brick and mortar stores instead of catering to online shopping.  Depending on what you are buying, the toys or other items are on the expensive side. All of these things and many more are true.  However, as parents, we need a Toys R Us in our lives.

There was a time I didn’t think that was the case, but I came to that realization last summer.

To this day, I remember getting the call at work my son was involved in an accident, and we needed to rush to pick him up and get him to the hospital.  It’s the call no parent wants to get.  We had to deal with the initial injury, the surgery, and the recovery.  Our son was devastated over it all.  As guilt ridden parents, we were doing all we could do to not only lift his spirits, but to also let him just feel like a regular kid again.

Much of that was accomplished with a trip to Toys R Us.  We walked in with our son and let him go pick out whatever toy he wanted in the entire store.  This once tired and sadden child’s eyes lit up.  Instead of moping around, he was his normal self again.  He happily went through aisle after aisle of toys.  Eventually, he settled on Mack’s Mobile Tool Center Playset.  Truth be told, he left that store with a lot more than just that Mack.

Yes, I mean more and more toys.  Between the accident, doctor visits, his birthday, and Christmas, I believe our family has everything sold for the movie Cars 3.  More than that, my son got a piece of himself back.  He wasn’t a patient.  He was just a kid literally let loose in a toy store.  In that moment, we saw our happy little boy come back, and fortunately, he never left.

Sure, we could have gone to Target, Walmart, or anyone retailer that sells toys.  My son would have been happy getting a toy.  We probably would have spent less that day.

However, I don’t believe the effect would have been the same.  Being limited to a few Target aisles is not the same as seeing aisle of toy after toy after toy.  There’s no magic for little kids in Target.  Even with all that is wrong with Toys R Us, the store still has that magic to it, and I am eternally grateful it did.

And I still hope there is magic left to help keep the store open because you never know when a parent is going to need to tap into that magic to help a kid feel like a kid again.

Trivia Friday – Mets Prospects Yet To Make Their MLB Debut

During Spring Training, we are watching Gavin Cecchini try to show the Mets he is still the future second baseman of the Mets.  We see Matt den Dekker trying to once again claim a spot in the Mets outfield.  We watch Amed Rosario get reps to prepare to be the Opening Day shortstop, and we wait for Dominic Smith to play in a second Spring Training game.

We see this each and every year with Minor League players in camp.  They are doing all they can do to prove themselves to the Mets to either create an impression with their manager Mickey Callaway or to show the organization they are ready.  Overall, they are really looking to find a way to finally make it to the majors this season.

Right now, the Mets have five players on the 40 man roster who have never played in the majors.  Can you name those five players?  Good luck!


Corey Oswalt Gerson Bautista Luis Guillorme Corey Oswalt Marcos Molina

Mets Should Sign Adam Lind

Like the rest of Major League Baseball, the Yankees are beginning to put together who will and who will not be on their Opening Day roster.  With the recent acquisitions of Brandon Drury and Neil Walker, 1B/OF Adam Lind became more expendable than he already was.  As a result, the Yankees released him allowing him to find the perfect situation for him to make an Opening Day roster.

For Lind, that situation should be with the New York Mets.

As the Mets progress towards Opening Day, the team is still unsettled at both first base and the outfield.  In what should come as a surprise to no one, this is really the result of injuries.

While he is not technically injured, Adrian Gonzalez is dealing with back issues which require him to warm up two hours before a game.  Whatever he is doing has not been working so far.  No, we should not read too much into Spring stats, but Gonzalez going 5-30 this Spring should be cause for concern, especially with how poorly he has looked on the field.

Now, the answer at first base should Gonzalez falter was Dominic Smith.  As Spring Training began, Smith was svelt, and he looked poised to give Gonzalez a real fight for the first base job.  That was until Smith showed up late the day of the first Spring Training game.  After that, he suffered an injury, and he has still only played in one Spring Training game.

Given the Springs we have seen from both Gonzalez and Smith, the first base job should be considered well up for grabs.  Arguably, the Mets could circumvent some of this by moving Jay Bruce from right field to first base.  That could have the added benefit of having Bruce not sprinting around the outfield with his plantar fasciitis.

However, Bruce may be needed in the outfield.  Yoenis Cespedes just received a cortisone injection due to a wrist injury.  With the Mets being the Mets, the team allowed him to play in a Spring Training game knowing he had the wrist injury.  With the Mets being the Mets, we don’t know how long the wrist will be an issue.

If Cespedes goes down, this means both Brandon Nimmo and Juan Lagares will have to play everyday due to the thin outfield depth in the Mets organization.  Unfortunately, both of those players have had their own injury issues.  This necessitates the team add to its outfield depth because Matt den Dekker is not the answer.

This brings us back to Lind.

The left-handed hitting Lind is coming off a terrific year as a bench player for the Washington Nationals.  In 116 games, he hit .303/.362/.513 with 14 doubles, 14 homers, and 59 RBI.  He split time fairly evenly between first base and left field.  While he’s not really good at either position, he at least has the experience to play them somewhat capably, and he hits enough against right-handed pitching to offset some of his defensive deficiencies.

In his career, Lind is a .288/.348/.504 hitter against right-handed pitching.  This would make him an ideal platoon partner with Wilmer Flores at first.  It would also make him a welcome addition to a team which features a bench with players like Jose Reyes and Lagares who hit left-handed pitching well but struggle against right-handed pitching.  Essentially, Lind balances out both the bench and the roster.

At this point, the Mets really need to ask themselves if it is worth gambling with Gonzalez at first given how poorly he has looked this Spring.  The team also has to consider if they are comfortable with den Dekker playing a larger than originally anticipated role.  Taking all of this into account, the Mets should be picking up the phone to bring in Lind as first base and outfield insurance.

Citi Field May Have Cost David Wright A Chance At Cooperstown

With the Mets signing Todd Frazier, and the recent announcement he cannot do any baseball activities for the next eight weeks, we are one step closer to everyone admitting David Wright is never going to ever play for the New York Mets again.  Certainly, the Mets have operated this offseason like it will never happen.  Indeed, if Wright were to be healthy enough to return at any point next season, the team will be forced to cut someone like Jose Reyes, or they will be forced to send someone like Brandon Nimmo, who may very well be the team’s center fielder, to the minors.

As Wright inches towards what seems to be in the inevitable, we get closer and closer to taking stock of his career.  For his career, Wright has 49.9 WAR, 40.0 WAR7, and a 45.0 JAWS.  These numbers fall short of the 67.5 WAR, 42.8 WAR7, and 55.2 JAWS an average Hall of Fame third baseman puts up in their career.

Looking over those numbers again, Wright is tantalizingly close, but falls short.  Right now, there seems to be an overwhelming consensus Wright falls into the Don Mattinglyterritory in that he was a great player when healthy, but ultimately, his health cost him a shot at Cooperstown.

However, upon reviewing Wright’s career, it does not appear his health issues will be the only reason Wright will fall short of Hall of Fame induction.

In the final two seasons at Shea Stadium, Wright emerged as a true superstar.  In successive seasons, he posted an 8.3 and 6.8 WAR season.  With him entering the prime years of his career, it looked like Wright was well on his way to the Hall of Fame.  What ensued was two ugly years at Citi Field.

Over 2009 and 2010, Wright’s offensive numbers would see a precipitous drop across the board.  As a result, in the prime of his career, by WAR, Wright had the two worst healthy seasons of his career.  A player who went from averaging a 7.6 WAR in the final two years at Shea struggled to accumulate a 5.9 WAR over two year.

If you are looking for reasons why this happened, look not further than Citi Field.  In its original form, Citi Field would see no doubt homers died on the edge of the warning track because the park was beyond cavernous:

  • Left Field 335 ft
  • Left Center 384
  • Center 408
  • Right Center 415
  • Right Field 330

As if that wasn’t bad enough, there was a 16 foot left field wall Harry Rose dubbed “The Great Wall of Flushing.”

Considering Wright was a batter who hit it to all fields and who had natural power to right center field, his new ballpark was completely ill suited to his particular skill set.  It should come as no surprise Wright’s oWAR and overall WAR nosedived.

In 2012, when the outfield walls at Citi Field were brought in and lowered, Wright started putting up Wright-like numbers again.  That year, Wright had a 7.0 WAR, the second highest of his career.  This would also prove to be his last healthy season.

The end of Wright’s peak was 2013.  Astonishingly, Wright had a 5.9 WAR in just 112 games.  Considering the stats he put up, it does make you question what his stats would have looked like in 2009 and 2010 under “normal” conditions.

Taking the last two years at Shea and the first two with the newly constructed Citi Field outfield walls, Wright averaged a 7.0 WAR.  If he were to averaged a 7.0 WAR in 2009 and 2010, his numbers would have been:

WAR 59.1
WAR7 46.8
JAWS 53.0

Yes, Wright would still fall short of the 67.5 WAR an average Hall of Fame third baseman produced over the length of their career, but Wright would have eclipsed the 42.8 WAR7 and been just short of the 55.2 JAWS.  Essentially, with Wright you would have had a real argument to induct him on the strength of his peak years.

Even if you want to be a little more conservative and say he would have averaged 5.9 (his low in 2013) instead of the 7.0 average, he would be at a 55.8 WAR, 44.6 WAR7, and a 50.2 JAWS.

Again, Wright would have had the peak years argument, and with his spinal stenosis, he would have had a tangible Hall of Fame argument.  Certainly, if Kirby Puckett got the benefit of the doubt with him suffering a career ending injury at 35, Wright would have had a case with his injury happening at 32, if not sooner.

In the end, Wright’s career and spinal stenosis has left us with many what ifs.  Looking at the numbers, we should also question what if Citi Field was not so ill designed when it first opened?  Would David Wright have made it to the Hall of Fame.

Based upon a look at the numbers, I would argue he would have been enshrined and deservedly so.  However, because of the original Citi Field dimensions and many other factors, it appears Wright will not make the Hall of Fame, which is a damned shame because Wright certainly deserved better than all of this.

Does Tim Tebow Want to Be a Sideshow Or a Baseball Player?

While we can question many things about Tim Tebow, the one thing we seem to not be able to question is his mission in life to help others.  Time and again, we have not only seen him do charitable work, but we have also seen him take an active role in things rather than just being the proverbial person who does nothing more than cutting a check.  We heard about it again just the other day:

Not even the most cynical among us can find fault with Tim Tebow the Man as he raises $2.2 million for his foundation which does things to help the mentally and physically challenged.  No, there is no fault with Tebow the Man.  However, what about Tebow the Baseball Player?

We all knew the deal when Tebow first announced his intentions to play baseball.  By and through his celebrity status, he was going to get a chance to play professional baseball, a chance that not even some other professional athletes might have received.  An organization, like the Mets, would be interested in Tebow because he would not only be a positive presence with their young and developing minor leaguers, but he would be a revenue machine.

To a certain extent, he was likely Jimmy Dugan in A League of Their Own.  As Dugan would so eloquently put it, “It was made very clear to me what I’m supposed to do here. I smile, wave my little hat… I did that, so when do I get paid?”

Sandy Alderson has really made no bones about it.  On the topic of signing Tebow, Alderson said, “Look, we signed him because he is a good guy, partly because of his celebrity, partly because this is an entertainment business. My attitude is ‘why not?’” (Newsday).  While Alderson has recently touted Tebow as someone who could one day make the majors, it should still be noted, Tebow was never originally signed to make the majors.

To that extent, Tebow was signed to be a side-show of sorts.  People would pay the Mets money to watch the former Heisman Trophy winner try to play baseball.  They would cheer wildly when he hit that unexpected home run.  They would call and beg for his autograph.  They would be disappointed but not surprised when he made an error or struck out.

If Tebow wants more out of this experience, or experiment, it’s really up to him.

It’s incumbent upon Tebow to show he’s dedicated.  He needs to show us all he’s not just a side show.  He has to show us he is here to be the best baseball player he can possibly be.

While I understood this was a side show, I never doubted Tebow’s integrity in wanting to become a Major League player.  That is until now.

We can argue about his having an offseason job w0rking college football.  We can debate whether his charitable endeavors really stand in the way of him becoming the professional athlete he always wanted to be.

What we should be all willing to agree upon is if Tebow’s serious, he can’t be leaving Spring Training to do work for his charity.  Yes, it is amazing his charity raised $2.2 million.  However, shouldn’t we all ask why this didn’t happen a month or so ago?  This is his foundation, and as a result, you would think he had some say as to when the event would be held.  Someone who was truly interested in his baseball career WOULD NOT have HIS FOUNDATION’s charitable golf outing during Spring Training.

He just wouldn’t.

Then again, maybe Tebow was never truly interested in playing baseball.  Maybe he was just interested in keeping a high profile to help boost his charitable efforts.  In the end, there’s nothing wrong with that.  In fact, you could argue his willingness to subject himself to ridicule and to withstand the rigors of a minor league season with the end game of helping those in need makes him an even better person than we believed.

What we can’t argue is this means he wants to be a baseball player.  Real minor leagues with a real hope of making the majors don’t skip out on Spring Training.