Musings
Back in 2015, the Mets somehow held onto a Game 5 and series clinching win against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Despite having nothing, Jacob deGrom kept the Dodgers to two runs over six innings. That was more than enough as Daniel Murphy took over that game in what was one of the truly great postseason games a player has ever had.
He’d double home the first run of the game in the first off Zack Greinke. On a fourth inning walk to Lucas Duda, Murphy went first to third against a shifted and lackadaisical Dodgers infield allowing him to score the tying run on a Travis d’Arnaud sacrifice fly.
The big blow came in the sixth when Murphy hit the go-ahead homer putting the Mets up 3-2.
After a scoreless sixth, it was Noah Syndergaard with a scoreless seventh followed by Jeurys Familia recording the six out save to send the Mets to the NLCS and eventually the World Series.
At the time, the Mets seemed to be the young team on the rise. In addition to deGrom, Syndergaard, and Familia, the team had Matt Harvey, Michael Conforto, Steven Matz, and eventually Zack Wheeler again.
The team also had a highly rated farm system, albeit one they raided for this one with a myriad of trades including Michael Fulmer and Luis Cessa for Yoenis Cespedes.
In 2016, both teams returned to the postseason. The Mets captured the top Wild Card spot only to be shut out by Madison Bumgarner and the San Francisco Giants. That year, the Dodgers would lose in the NLCS to the eventual World Series winning Chicago Cubs (two years later and that sentence still seems bizarre).
After that, the Mets have had consecutive losing seasons while the Dodgers have gone to back-to-back World Series. Why?
Well, for starters, the Dodgers build a deep team with a deep bench. They do not have top heavy rosters which crumble when there is one injury. For example, Clayton Kershaw has not thrown over 175.0 innings in a season since that NLDS, and yet, the Dodgers remain a great team.
Also, while the Mets are off purging the Murphys and Justin Turners of the world, the Dodgers are finding them. In addition to Turner, we have also seen Chris Taylor and Max Muncy figure things out in Los Angeles.
The Dodgers are also not afraid to take risks or trust their young players. Gone from the 2015 team are Howie Kendrick, Adrian Gonzalez, Andre Ethier, and Jimmy Rollins. Instead, the Dodgers have players like Cody Bellinger.
For the Mets part, well, Adrian Gonzalez was their Opening Day first baseman.
Mostly, the separation has been financial. The Dodgers ownership has been willing and motivated to keep this championship window as open as possible, and they have with the largest payroll in baseball.
Looking between the 2015 NLDS and 2018 NLCS, Turner, Joc Pederson, and Yasmani Grandal were the only players in both starting lineups. Pederson and Grandal are still under 30.
On the pitching front, Kershaw, Pedro Baez, Alex Wood, and Kenley Jansen were the only pitchers to pitch in both series.
The Dodgers are not just a financial juggernaut, but they are also a supremely well run organization. This is a complete opposite of what the Mets have been, and judging from their current GM search, will continue to be.
This is all why the Dodgers are competing for World Series while the Mets are once again also-rans.
Mets fan favorite Curtis Granderson is just one game away from his team going to the World Series. If it happens, this will be the second straight year and third out of the last four years his team went to the World Series.
Note, that’s team because Granderson was left off last year’s World Series roster.
After going 1-for-15 in the NLDS and NLCS combined with eight strikeouts, the Dodgers would leave him off the World Series roster in favor of Brandon McCarthy, who was added to the roster despite not having pitched in nearly a month.
As luck would have it, McCarthy would appear in just one game that series. He was the pitcher who took the loss in the back-and-forth 12 inning game two after surrendering a two run homer to George Springer.
Instead of the commanding 2-0 series lead heading to Houston, the series was tied 1-1. The Dodgers would lost two of three in Houston before losing the series in seven games.
Tonight, even though he is nothing more than a pinch hitter, Granderson has the opportunity to exact some measure of revenge for the Dodgers leaving him off the World Series roster last year. Judging from how the Brewers have utilized him, he will then have a chance to have an impact on the 2018 World Series.
Here’s hoping he gets that chance, and here’s hoping one of the best human beings to ever don an MLB uniform finally wins that elusive World Series ring.
The NLCS and the ALCS have been riveting series so far with many storylines and subplots. After each and every game, there is so much to unpack and discuss. In many ways, these series are all that is great about baseball.
The Brewers are trying to bullpen their way through the postseason. Their efforts reached their peak yesterday with Craig Counsell pulling Wade Miley after he walked Cody Bellinger, so he could insert Brandon Woodruff. The obvious goal there was to get the right-handed Woodruff in against a predominantly right-handed lineup.
The Dodgers have been dealing with the drama with Manny Machado not hustling and making dirty plays in the field. Through all of it, Machado has been the best player in this series, and in a 13 inning Game 4 victory, he made the hustle plays to win the game. In addition to Machado, the Dodgers have the usual postseason issues related to Clayton Kershaw, who followed a bad start with a gem yesterday.
In the ALCS, the Astros appeared poised to streamroll the Red Sox. In Game 1, Chris Sale didn’t have his velocity, and he went to the hospital after the game. In that game, the Astros beat up on what is a poor Red Sox bullpen. It seemed as if this was going to be a recurring theme in this series except it hasn’t. The Red Sox have won three straight games with the Red Sox taking advantage of the Astros bullpen while Alex Cora has used a deft touch, including his use of Rick Porcello in the pen, to navigate his way through each game even with Craig Kimbrel nearly pulling an Armando Benitez each game.
We should be talking about each and every single thing from each of these series. We should be talking about George Springer having another phenomenal postseason run. Same thing for Justin Turner. Orlando Arcia is playing at another level this postseason. There are so many great stories and more, and today, we’re not talking about any of them.
No, we’re talking about Joe West because he made a decision which may have changed the course of not just Game 4 of the ALCS but the entire series.
https://twitter.com/617Report/status/1052727058290417664
Mookie Betts was about to rob Jose Altuve of a two run homer until his glove hit the hands of some fans in the stands. While there may not have been a definitive video, it is about 99 percent certain Betts reached into the stands, which means pursuant to MLB rules, it should have been a home run.
Before discussing further, it’s important to see West’s position. It is best shown in this video:
We’ll never know, and I think the call was the right one from Joe West…but I don’t think Mookie Betts would’ve caught this ball. #RedSox #Astros pic.twitter.com/Cf2PDTtSUo
— Adam Kaufman (@AdamMKaufman) October 18, 2018
Joe West is nowhere near position to make that call. Seeing him out there, it was clearly impossible for him to get into the correct position. The right field umpire is really in no man’s land. and he felt comfortable enough to make a series changing call. In addition, MLB did not have enough cameras in place to properly analyze a call which was still fairly obvious.
Really, unless you are from Boston, an MLB replay official, Joe West, or a horrid analyst like Billy Ripken, you knew it was not fan interference. And yet, here we are. Stuck with a bad call in what should be a great series. Worse yet, instead of discussing all the great things which are happening in the postseason, we are focusing on Joe West.
Time and again, we hear from Rob Manfred about all that is wrong with baseball. He has publicly chastised Mike Trout for not being available for MLB promotions. And yet, while he’s focusing on all that’s wrong and blaming players for his marketing department not being able to promote players, he allows Joe West to go out there and be Joe West and not make sure there are enough cameras in place to mitigate against that.
Narratives can go a little too far. For example, the narrative was Carlos Beltran received his seven year $119 million deal from the Mets because he hit eight homers in the 2004 postseason. While that postseason run may have brought Beltran more name recognition, the fact is in 2004 Beltran hit .267/.367/.548 with 36 doubles, nine triples, 38 homers, and 104 RBI with 42 stolen bases.
No matter what Beltran did in the 2004 NLCS, he was going to cash in during free agency because he was a 27 year old MVP level player who promised to win Silver Sluggers and Golden Gloves.
This is the same situation Dodgers SS Manny Machado finds himself this NLCS. At just 25 years old, he is already one of the arguably 10 best players in the game, and with him entering his prime years, he could be much more than that. He is coming off a season where he hit .297/.367/.538 with 35 doubles, three triples, 37 homers, and 101 RBI. He’s already won Gold Gloves at third base, and once he joined a more analytical friendly Dodgers organization, his defensive metrics at shortstop improved substantially.
Like with Beltran, the 2018 NLCS should have proven to be a springboard for Machado into free agency. With him hitting .353/.389/.588 through the first four games of this series, the talk about him on the field isn’t about his hitting, it’s about how he plays the game.
In Game 3, Machado helped kill a potential rally in a 1-0 game by making an obviously illegal slide. What made the slide all the worse was the fact it was not necessary as Cody Bellinger was likely going to be safe anyway. However, with the slide, it was a double play clearing the bases thereby stymieing any potential rally:
https://twitter.com/MLBReplays/status/1052008376106930177
While we do not know what could have happened after that play, we can say the slide mattered in a game where the Dodgers lost 4-0 and fell behind in the series 2-1.
Last night, we saw yet another arguably dirty play from Machado. During a 10th inning groundout, Machado went Kobra Kai, and he swept Jesus Aguilar‘s foot off of first base.
ICYMI: Things got heated between Manny Machado and Jesús Aguilar late in Game 4 of the NLCS. pic.twitter.com/jz6HwCMaYw
— ESPN (@espn) October 17, 2018
The play is up for debate as Aguilar’s foot is well out of position, but still, Machado went out of his way to kick Aguilar’s foot off the base on what was really a routine groundout. Despite, no one being injured, the play was certainly not well received by the Brewers or many fans still watching the game.
Even if Machado is a dirty player, it is not like that is going to hurt his value this offseason. After all, dirty players throughout history like Pete Rose, or Machado’s current teammate Chase Utley, have been in demand because they produced on the field. It also helped that Rose and Utley were seen as hard nosed players who would do anything to beat you. That is something Machado has put into question during the NLCS.
With the Dodgers down 1-0 in the series against an insanely hot Brewers team who had won 12 in a row, the Dodgers arguably need to pull out all the stops to stem the tide and even up the series. With the game tied 0-0 in the fourth inning of Game 2, Machado grounded out to short, and he did not hustle to first base. To put it more succinctly, he loafed it over there. This caused many to question if Machado won’t hustle in the NLCS, when exactly will he hustle. Machado’s response? He’s not “Johnny Hustle.”
Manny Machado sat down with @Ken_Rosenthal, and Machado explained a play where he appeared to not run the ball out. pic.twitter.com/03LVMnstmM
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 17, 2018
The unabashed refusal to hustle and his arguably dirty plays have certainly caused Machado’s reputation to take a hit in some circles. It has actually gotten to the point where some people are beginning to question how much it will affect the contract Machado will get in free agency.
The answer to that question is Machado will not receive one less penny than he otherwise would have had these issues not emerged during the NLCS. Teams are going to line up for a 26 year old shortstop who can hit 30+ homers a year. They will want one of the best players in the game entering his prime. And wherever Machado goes, he will drastically improve his team.
Look, the fact is while we all want players to hustle, we want them to produce on the field all the more. Even with the lack of hustle, Machado is a great player, and if he were to join the Mets, he would instantly become their best position player. It wouldn’t even be close. Even for those most disturbed by his lack of hustle, we should all invite the opportunity to criticize him for it during the NLCS because make no mistake here. If the Mets get Machado, they’re a postseason team, and with that pitching, they’re going to go deep in the postseason.
Hustle, no hustle. Just sign Machado.
There are a number of indications the Mets General Manager search is a complete and utter farce. The fact the team knew of this opening in June and has just now even contemplated conducting a search was a big indicator. However, there are even bigger signs beyond that, and they are just now coming to the surface.Perhaps the biggest indication come from Jon Heyman, who recently reported for Fancred:
There’s a split on Mickey Callaway within the Mets’ front office, so expect him to have a short leash in 2019. The Mets have consistently said Callaway will return to manage next year even before hiring a GM. However, some within the Mets’ hierarchy see it as a work in progress that may not work out.
Think about it for a second. The Mets have no hired a new GM to replace Sandy Alderson. Presumably, when you hire that GM, you are going to permit him to actually build a front office. Maybe that includes John Ricco and Omar Minaya, who Jeff Wilpon reportedly wants to keep, and maybe it doesn’t. The point is the people who are there now should be there on an interim basis until such time as the new GM constructs his new front office.
And yet, reports are there’s a split on the manager in the front office, which is s clear indication the new GM will be brought in to execute a plan instead of creating one of his or her own. Other news reports bear this out.
Mike Chernoff, who has the opportunity to return home and get somewhat of a soft hand from the press with his dad being station director at WFAN, has declined the Mets job. Others who have declined include Twins GM Thad Levine, Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Josh Byrnes, and Blue Jays Vice President of Baseball Operations Ben Cherington. There are likley more names which have not been reported.
As Mike Puma of the New York Post reports, there “is the perception that team COO Jeff Wilpon will run the baseball operations department, with the new hire as the real No. 2 in the organization.”
There are other reports Jeff Wilpon blatantly lied about how the team operates according to the recommendations of the General Manager. In fact, Tim Healey of Newsday reported not just how this is untrue, but also how it has led to the organization bleeding talented people. As Healey reports, “Multiple sources disputed Wilpon’s statement, saying ownership denied repeated requests in recent years from Alderson’s baseball operations department to add to the analytics staff.”
What is downright absurd about Healey’s report is Omar Minaya “badly wanted” to keep now Brewers GM David Stearns once his internship ended. The Wilpons did not approve the extra headcount, and Stearns, someone who grew up a Mets fans, went to Milwaukee. Now, Stearns has built the Brewers into a World Series contender while the Wilpons are interested in the man he replaced.
This whole search is a joke, and in the end, it’s not going to be about who can do the best job, but who can carry out Jeff Wilpon’s plans. That’s not a search for a GM. It’s a search for a figurehead. This is a farce.
In many ways, Game 2 of the NLCS was decided by a couple of former and well liked Mets.
In the top of the eighth, with the Dodgers down 3-2, Justin Turner hit a go-ahead two run homer off Jeremy Jeffress.
The Brewers would have their chance to respond in the bottom of the eighth.
With one on and two out, Dave Roberts pulled his left-handed reliever for Kenta Maeda, and Craig Counsell countered by sending Curtis Granderson to the plate. Granderson put a charge in one, but the ball would land harmlessly in Yasiel Puig‘s glove.
While there were many, many other factors which influenced the final score, when you boil down this game, the difference was Turner’s ball left the yard, and Granderson’s didn’t.
In some ways, it’s great to see some popular former Mets in the postseason, especially Granderson. In other ways, it is a reminder how the Mets once had the talent to be a World Series contender. That talent is still contributing in some fashion to teams on the cusp of going to the World Series.
It’s now incumbent on the Mets to find their next Turner and Granderson to get the franchise to the point where Turner and Granderson currently are.
Starting with the obvious, as constructed today, the Yankees are a far superior team than the New York Mets. With Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, and Luis Severino, this Yankees team is set up to win 90 plus games a year for the next decade. Given the talent base and how the Yankees are willing to spend, the Yankees should be a fixture in the postseason, much like they were in the late 90s, and that is a prerequisite to winning a World Series.
However, as we saw with this Yankees team for the second straight season, they could not get through the postseason partially because they did not have the ace to help push them through to the World Series.
Last year, it was Justin Verlander, who helped stop the Yankees. In many ways, Verlander has proved to be the Yankees kryptonite. In three different postseasons, Verlander has faced the Yankees, and each time, Verlander’s teams advanced. Last year, Verlander was the ALCS MVP going 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA. What made the issue worse for the Yankees is they did not go out and get an eminently available Verlander.
This year, the Yankees were stopped by Chris Sale. Not only did Sale beat the Yankees in Game 1, but he would stop the Yankees in Game 4 in his one inning of work.
With the Yankees window opening last year, they have failed to get an ace to go up against Verlander, Sale, or even Corey Kluber (who the Yankees beat in the 2017 ALDS). Severino has not yet proven to be that guy. Instead of utilizing Justus Sheffield and some other prospect to acquire that ace, they are hoping that he develops into that front line starter himself.
If neither of those things happen, it is hard to imagine how the Yankees can navigate their way through the American League portion of the postseason each and every year. The Astros and Red Sox have every bit the position player talent the Yankees have, and they also have more starting pitching. To that end, it’s difficult to see how exactly the Yankees win a World Series with this core.
Equally as difficult is seeing how the Mets even make the postseason. While the Mets have talent, they are in a division with the upcoming Braves and Phillies teams. Moreover, the Nationals are always ready, willing, and able to spend in free agency to address the deficiencies on their roster. This creates a real uphill battle for a Mets franchise with ownership which continues to serve as an impediment to building a winner.
And yet, if the Mets ever do get to the postseason, they are a really dangerous team. Back in 2015, we saw what Jacob deGrom can do in the postseason and that was before he emerged as the best pitcher in baseball. Similarly, Noah Syndergaard has shown himself to be a big time postseason pitcher. Aside from his strong 2015 rookie campaign, Syndergaard would go pitch-for-pitch with Madison Bumgarner, the best postseason pitcher of this generation, in the 2016 Wild Card Game. What makes that postseason all the more impressive is the emergence of Zack Wheeler this season.
When you substitute Wheeler for 2015 Matt Harvey, you have the type of pitching rotation which can and should carry a team to the World Series.
When you surround this pitching staff with a young core which includes Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, and Amed Rosario, there is a core of players which can not just make the World Series but win it. So yes, if we are talking about a core of players which can go through the postseason and win the World Series, the Mets have what it takes.
And yet, they don’t have the type of core which can carry them through the regular season. This team is at least one bat short. Maybe two. And that is before you even consider the bullpen.
That’s the real shame of it all. The Yankees have the talent but not the pitching, and that is partially the result of them getting gun shy when it came time to pull the trigger to obtain that ace which can carry a team through the postseason. The Mets have the pitching, and they have that young core, but they have ownership which gets gun shy when it comes time to getting a player they need to win.
In the end, the Mets have a better core of players which can carry you to the World Series, but it doesn’t really matter because unless things change, the Mets will be sitting on the sidelines watching this Yankees core squander away without a legitimate ace.
When the Mets hire a new General Manager, one of his, or in the case of Kim Ng getting the job, her, first duties is to decide if they want to retain Mickey Callaway as the Mets manager. Given how Callaway may come attached at the hip with Dave Eiland and seeing how this pitching rotation took off this year, you’d be inclined to keep Callaway on the job.
However, seeing Aaron Boone in Games 3 and 4 of the ALDS, we know a General Manager needs to look at much more than that. Basically, the new General Manager needs to assess not just if Callaway is the guy who can bring the Mets to the postseason, but he needs to assess if Callaway would stand as an impediment to the Mets winning a World Series.
In the regular season, we have seen some really good and really terrible things from Callaway and his coaching staff. The question is what is fixable and what are flaws which stand in the way.
The negatives have been oft discussed. There was the lineup card incident. Callaway had real difficulty handling the media. We saw him exhaust the bullpen, especially Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman, early in the season. He was also not above continuing to go back to that well even with them being overused. At times, the lineups were outright baffling, and unlike some of his other issues, this was something which seemed to get worse (more traditional?) as the season progressed.
On the positive, the Mets players did progress. According to wRC+, Brandon Nimmo was the second best hitter in the National League. Michael Conforto returned to his All Star form. Amed Rosario went from potential bust to improving young player. Jeff McNeil emerged as an everyday second baseman. Lugo became a dominant reliever. As noted previously, the rotation improved. Mostly, this team did not quit even after the season was over after a 5-21 June.
We have also seen Callaway use analytics to inform his decisions. In April, he was started Juan Lagares because Jacob deGrom was a flyball pitcher, and the Cardinals starter, Michael Wacha, had reverse splits. Essentially, he is well versed in analytics, and he’s able to use them to inform his decision making.
He’s also an aggressive manager. On multiple occasions, he brought in a reliever to force the other managers hand. Instead of being reactive to another manager’s pinch hitting choice, Callaway ensured he brought in his better pitcher to get a worse hitter up at the plate thereby ensuring himself of the better match-up.
Essentially, there’s enough here to suggest Callaway is the right guy for the job, but make no mistake, it is not a clear-cut decision. While he was strong in motivating and developing players as well as being aggressive in his pitching decisions, his position player choices left something to be desired and arguably got worse as the season progressed.
In the end, if the Mets are going to keep him or replace him, they better be right.
Things got so out of control in the Yankees 16-1 loss to the Boston Red Sox in Game 3 of the ALDS, Austin Romine would pitch the top of the ninth inning. In that inning, he would surrender a two run homer to Brock Holt. By allowing that homer, not only did Holt become the first ever player to have a postseason cycle (62 years to the day after Don Larsen threw the only perfect game in postseason history), but he would have an 18.00 ERA.
Coincidentally, with Luis Severino allowing six earned in his three innings of work yesterday, his ERA this postseason is also 18.00. Now, even with his second half, no one could have really predicted Severino would be this bad in the ALDS. However, everyone knew the Yankees needed more pitching heading if they were going to get through this postseason.
Instead of making the big game changing move, the Yankees instead decided to fill-in around the edges. They traded for J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn. The Happ moved seemed obvious as he has a history of beating the Red Sox, who then, were the Yankees most likely opponent in the ALDS. Those good numbers against the Red Sox translated to five earned in two innings in the Yankees Game 1 loss.
Lynn relieved Happ in that Game 1, and he did provide the Yankees with two scoreless innings, which gave the team a chance to get back into that game. Lynn was not up to the task yesterday. Like Severino, he struggled mightily allowing three earned in one-third of an inning. If the game wasn’t over by then, it was after Lynn’s appearance.
Now, with the season on the line, the Yankees are turning to CC Sabathia. On the one hand, Sabathia is a savvy veteran who is going to give the Yankees a chance to win this game. After all, he was 9-7 with a 3.65 ERA this season. On the other, Sabathia had a 5.40 ERA in September. He also hasn’t pitched in almost two weeks. You have to question how sharp he will be against a red hot Red Sox offense.
If you were the Yankees, wouldn’t you want a big time ace like, say, Jacob deGrom , take the mound today?
Now, it’s quite possible no deal between the Mets and Yankees could ever be made. Certainly not one of this magnitude. In the opinion of many, for the Mets to even begin considering such a deal, the Yankees would have to part with Gleyber Torres. While Torres is hitting just .250 this postseason with no extra-base hits, he’s a 21 year old potential superstar.
If you are the Yankees, do you really want to part with that? Even to raise the Yankees chances to win the World Series for the next three years? The Yankees said no even if this was not how they would have operated two decades ago when they built a dynasty.
For the Yankees, they better hope Gleyber is exactly what they think he will be. They also better hope Severino returns to his first half form and Justus Sheffield emerges as the ace they think he can be. It has to break this way because the Yankees put all of their eggs in this basket. Judging from this year, it may cost them a World Series this year. Who knows what the long term ramifications will be from here?