Musings
In Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS, it would have been hard to believe Oliver Perez would eventually be a pariah. That notion seemed all the more bizarre when you saw Perez have a strong 2007 season and with him doing all he could do to help prevent the Mets from having a second straight collapse in the final game played at Shea Stadium.
But that wasn’t the whole of Perez’s tenure with the Mets. He signed a big free agent deal with the Mets which blew up as every expected it would. The Mets would eventually shut him down in 2010 when he refused a minor league assignment. The final indignity was throwing Perez into the 14th inning of the final game of the season just so everyone could go home.
Perez was released, spent the 2011 season in the minors, and he would re-emerge as a left-handed a reliever. Surprisingly, he’d emerge as a pretty good one.
Over the past seven seasons, Perez has generally had a good reliever. He has made 397 appearances as a reliever pitching to a 3.47 ERA, 1.276 WHIP, 116 ERA+, and an 11.0 K/9. In the relevant time frame, he is in the top 10 among relievers in both K/9 and strikeout rate.
While he struggled to start the year with the Nationals, he rediscovered himself with the Indians. In 51 games with Cleveland, he was 1-1 with a 1.39 ERA, 0.742 WHIP, and 12.0 K/9.
If his name was Oscar Palmer instead of Oliver Perez, Mets fans would be interested in him. Instead of seeing Ollie, they would see a cheap left-handed reliever who could contribute in their bullpen.
But as we saw with Bobby Bonilla returning to the Mets in 1999, Mets fans cannot and will not forget. The shame of it is Perez could actually be a solid option in the Mets bullpen next year. Hopefully, whoever the Mets get instead of Perez is going to be just as cost effective, more reliable, and not going to garner the same visceral reaction from Mets fans.
While the Mets have boasted some quality top of the order hitters like Jose Reyes and Lenny Dykstra (quality players, not people), the Mets have not had many hitters with an OBP over .400. In fact, in their entire history, there have only been 13 instances where the team had a player with an OBP over .400. Can you name the players who accomplished that feat? Good luck!
Richie Ashburn John Olerud Cleon Jones David Wright Rickey Henderson Keith Hernandez Dave Magadan Edgardo Alfonzo Brandon Nimmo
One of the narratives which has taken hold of late is how the Mets catching situation is what has been holding them back. To a certain extent, there is a point. Travis d’Arnaud cannot stay on the field, and Kevin Plawecki has yet to fully maximize the chances he has been given to establish himself as even a clear-cut starter at the MLB level.
When looking at this offseason, there are plenty of players available who could be upgrades for the Mets. On the free agent front, there’s Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos. On the trade front, there is J.T. Realmuto and Francisco Cervelli. Even if you argue all of these players are not definitively better than what a healthy d’Arnaud can give you, their ability to stay on the field makes them upgrades. More than that, it provides the Mets with depth at the catching position.
As we saw with the Mets playing Jose Lobaton and Devin Mesoraco, depth is vitally important at the catching position. More than that, the Mets need a real depth of talent on the roster. If you build a roster with talented players, an upgrade at catcher isn’t that desperately needed.
For those who don’t remember, the 2015 Mets were able to make it to the World Series with d’Arnaud behind the plate. There were several reasons why. Daniel Murphy was just beginning to become the feared hitter he would become. Curtis Granderson was a leader on and off the field. David Wright was having that one last great stretch in a terrific career. Yoenis Cespedes was phenomenal. There was real depth with Juan Uribe, Kelly Johnson, and Wilmer Flores.
Mostly, it was the pitching, and d’Arnaud played a big part of that with his pitch framing. This path to the World Series isn’t an anomaly either. Just this past season, we saw the Red Sox go to the World Series with Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez behind the plate. Much like the 2015 Mets, the reason the Red Sox were able to do this was because they had great players like Mookie Betts and Chris Sale in addition to terrific situational/platoon players like Steve Pearce and Brock Holt.
The overriding point is there are many ways for the Mets to go back to the World Series, and they don’t have to upgrade at catcher to do it. Instead, they need to look at the best possible players they can add to the roster.
They need to build on a pitching staff which already includes Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, Steven Matz, Edwin Diaz, and Seth Lugo. They need to add to a lineup which already features Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, and Robinson Cano.
If building up the lineup and roster comes at catcher, great. If it doesn’t, that’s good too because we already know d’Arnaud and Plawecki behind the plate can bring you to a World Series. For that matter, Plawecki, d’Arnaud, and Rene Rivera brought the Mets to the Wild Card Game.
In the end, there needs to be much less of a fixation on improving just one roster spot for the sake of another. For example, don’t trade Nimmo for Realmuto. Instead, the Mets just need to focus on getting better players on this team much like how they added Cano even though they already had McNeil.
In the end, if the focus is better players and a deeper roster, you will win games. You see it time and again. The Yankees dynasty had a black hole in left field. The Red Sox had nothing at catcher, second, and third. The 1986 Mets had Rafael Santana. The 2018 Mets can have d’Arnaud and Plawecki behind the plate, a tandem we already know can get you to the World Series.
According to recent reports, the Mets are pursuing J.T. Realmuto. Purportedly, the Marlins want a combination of young MLB players under control plus some prospects for Realmuto. The MLB players mentioned were Michael Conforto, Amed Rosario, and Brandon Nimmo. If that’s the cost, especially Nimmo, the Mets should tell the Marlins there’s no deal.
In fact, if anyone approaches the Mets about Nimmo, they should hang up the phone.
Last year, Nimmo was one of the best players in the National League. In fact, if not for the Mets completely falling apart in the May, it is quite possible Nimmo would have been one of the top five in MVP voting. No, this is not hyperbole.
In 2018, Nimmo was second in the National League in both wRC+, OPS+, and OBP. He had the third highest WAR among National League outfielders. He was fourth in the league in triples. He was ninth in walks and first in HBP. Taking all of this into account, Nimmo profiled as the best lead-off hitter in the National League, and if Mookie Betts wasn’t a lead0ff hitter for the Red Sox, you could probably argue Nimmo was the best leadoff hitter in baseball.
When you take Nimmo’s production and you combine it with his not yet being arbitration eligible, you have one of the most valuable assets in all of baseball. Nimmo is playing at an All Star level, is still just 25 years old, and he is under team control through the 2022 season. This is the type of asset you build upon, not one you trade away when you can simply sign other players to fill other voids.
Speaking of voids, trading Nimmo leaves a huge one. If you are going to look to replace him, you are talking about injury plagued players like Michael Brantley or A.J. Pollock. There’s also veterans on the backside of their careers like Andrew McCutchen or Adam Jones. Past that, and you’re really rolling the dice that Curtis Granderson or Nick Markakis have just one year left in them.
Sure, you can mention Bryce Harper, but if you have the money to sign him, just go ahead and sign him. He is supposedly willing to play first base. If he isn’t, Nimmo can play center. He was a -2 DRS in 350.1 innings there last year, but according to Baseball Savant he has the same spring speed as Juan Lagares, which at least suggests he can make improvements if he were to remain at the position (no, this is not to say he’s going to win any Gold Gloves).
Overall, Nimmo is a cost controlled outfielder who was one of the best hitters in all of baseball last year. He is a driven to get better, and he is versatile in the outfield. With him not yet being arbitration eligible and under team control for four more years, he is as untouchable as any player, pitchers included, on this Mets team.
Do you know what is interesting about the infamous John Smoltz trade? If the Detroit Tigers do not win the American League East in 1987 if they don’t obtain Doyle Alexander. History may forget or overlook this, but Alexander was dominant when he put on a Tigers uniform.
Alexander was 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA in 11 starts for the Tigers. The Tigers won all 11 games he started. He was a 4.4 WAR pitcher. The Tigers won the East by just two games. Long story short, Alexander was a difference maker for the Tigers, and had that trade not happened, it’s very possible the Tigers miss the postseason.
The very same thing can be said about Larry Anderson. For those who forgot, Anderson was the closer the Boston Red Sox obtained when they traded Jeff Bagwell to the Houston Astros.
Like the Tigers, the Red Sox won the division by two games. Like Alexander, Anderson was lights out. In his 15 games, he had a 1.23 ERA. He didn’t have the WAR of Alexander, nor did his team have the same success in the games he pitched, but he did not lose one game he appeared. That matters for a team who finished just ahead of the Blue Jays.
But we don’t hear that at all. For starters, we don’t hear that because Smoltz and Bagwell became Hall of Famers. The other reason is because neither the Tigers nor Red Sox actually won. Both teams would lose the ALCS in swift fashion. The Tigers lost to Twins in five games, and the Red Sox lost to the Athletics in a sweep.
That’s the thing. Just making the postseason isn’t enough. In a win-now trade, you actually have to win, and winning here means the World Series. It is ultimately why the Cubs will get a pass one day if Gleyber Torres is a Hall of Famer. The Cubs actually won the World Series with Aroldis Chapman.
That’s the way it works with win-now deals. You are sacrificing the future to win-now. Not winning now means the goal you set to achieve by making the trade failed. It’s a very small margin of error, but that’s what you sign up for when you make such a deal.
And that’s what Brodie Van Wagenen and the Mets did by trading Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn, and Gerson Bautista for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. The Mets parted with one excellent, one very good, and one wild card for two players who they believe will help them win-now. At least from the Mets perspective, win-now probably means 2019 or 2020 because after that the Mets current core will begin hitting free agency, and Cano will be making $20 million per year.
In the end, if the Mets win the World Series with Cano and Diaz, no one will care if Kelenic, Dunn, and Bautista became perennial All-Stars. However, if the Mets don’t win anything more than a division title, they will be reminded of it each and every time the aforementioned prospects do anything of note.
Any day now, the Seattle Mariners and New York Mets are about to complete a blockbuster deal which will alter the next five to ten years for both franchises.
For the Mets, adding Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz is about winning now, and judging from this trade, they better win now.
First and foremost, they will no longer have Jarred Kelenic, who is arguably their best prospect. More than than, Cano’s deal is a complete albatross.
While some are saying the Mets are getting plenty of relief on Cano, it’s not exactly true. Remember, Jay Bruce is only under contract for two more years. Anthony Swarzak‘s deal expires after 2019. After that, there’s no more “offsets.”
Therefore, for the final three years of Cano’s deal, he will be making $20 million per season. Also, we should not forget, even with the Mets trading Bruce and Swarzak, they still owe Cano $100 million over five years. Of course, that assumes the Mariners are providing the $20 million.
With that $20 million figure once being $60 million, we should not be too sure that number won’t change.
An important consideration to this deal is when the Mets are going to deal with Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, and Michael Conforto hitting free agency, the team will be paying Cano $20 million per season. That puts a tremendous strain on the ability to keep those players.
Perhaps that is why Syndergaard is being shopped now.
If we operate under the assumption the Mets are building their team to win-now, which should be painfully obvious by this trade, you really have to question the wisdom of including Justin Dunn in this trade.
No starting pitching staff is immune to injuries, and since 2015, that has gone double for the Mets. With that being the case, the Mets will really need Triple-A depth to pick up the slack. Here are the career MLB numbers for their current projected Triple-A starters:
- Corey Oswalt 5.85 ERA
- Chris Flexen 8.45 ERA
- P.J. Conlon 8.22 ERA
- Drew Gagnon 5.25 ERA
This is a group who makes Rafael Montero‘s 5.38 ERA not look so bad. For his part, Montero is not an option as he was released.
The numbers from the aforementioned pitchers are from small sample sizes, but you’d be hard-pressed to argue they would be much better than this next year. You’d be harder pressed to believe they would be able to do much better than this over 10, 15, or even 20 plus starts.
With that being the case, the Mets needed Dunn. He was the one pitcher in their system who was close to MLB ready who you could realistically rely upon for a number of starts. With him gone, the Mets really have zero depth.
With that being the case, you really have to question why a Mets team trying to win-now would completely overlook this. That is more problematic when you consider the Mets have been done in more by lack of depth than any other factor.
In the end, the Mets are going all-in now, and they’re doing it with a need to address the bullpen, catching position, center field, and their bench depth. Now, they are also going to have to add 1-2 quality pitchers who are alright spending extended time in the minors waiting for someone to get hurt.
The pitchers who are willing to do that are rarely good, and ultimately, this is why trading Dunn was a giant mistake.
It should come as no surprise the San Diego Padres are interested in Noah Syndergaard. Really, all 30 teams, Mets included, should want Syndergaard on their team. He’s a 26 year old front line starter who has come up big in big situations. Looking at it, how many pitchers are there who could go toe-to-toe with Madison Bumgarner for 7 innings in a winner-take-all game?
If you are a team who wants to win-now or jump start their path to winning, you want Syndergaard. That includes the Padres who inquired about Syndergaard at the trade deadline, and there are rumors they are pursuing him this offseason.
With Syndergaard being Syndergaard and his being under team control for the next three years, any team interested in him is going to have to pay a big price for him. That price should be higher than usual because given his status as a front line pitcher, his being controlled for three years, and the Mets intentions to contend next season, any team who is interested in him is going to have to pry him away from the Mets.
The Padres are not trying to do that.
According to various reports, the Padres want Syndergaard, but they also don’t want to part with their best prospects. Recently, Jon Heyman of Fancred said the Padres are making Fernando Tatis, Jr., MacKenzie Gore, and Luis Urias untouchable. Basically, they want Syndergaard, but they want him to be on a team with their top prospects.
It just doesn’t work that way.
It does not matter how deep a system the Padres are, if you don’t part with the top prospects, you should not get Syndergaard. Yes, the Padres system is deep, much deeper than other systems. Their fifth best prospect may be even better than another team’s top prospect. That doesn’t mean that prospect is good enough to fetch Syndergaard.
Look at it from another perspective. If the Padres are willing to make Francisco Mejia available, he would headline the Syndergaard trade. Mejia is a very good prospect and widely regarded a top 25 prospect in the game. That meant he was good enough to fetch the Cleveland Indians Brad Hand and Adam Cimber.
Hand was the headliner of the return for the Indians. Hand is a 28 year old late inning reliever/closer who is under team control through the end of next season. Basically, Mejia was good enough for 2.5 seasons of a closer. If that is his value, how is he now worth three years of an ace level pitcher?
The answer is he’s not, and no, Austin Hedges who hit .231/.282/.429 last year is not nearly enough to put a Mejia package over the top. Same goes for Manuel Margot who hit .245/.292/.384 last year. Really, no matter how many bad hitters the Mets want to throw the Mets way, a package headlined by Mejia is insufficient to obtain Syndergaard.
So unless the Padres want to step up and make a real offer for Syndergaard, the Mets need to move on, and we all need to stop hearing about these idiot rumors.
There are prevalent rumors about how the Mets may be making a big trade with the Seattle Mariners. In the deal, the Mariners would send Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz to the Mets in exchange for a package centering around Jay Bruce and Andres Gimenez. There are different iterations of the deal with the Mets possibly getting Mitch Haniger, and there is some issue about how much of Cano’s contract the Mariners will eat.
What is interesting here is Cano has a big contract. He is owed $120 million over the next five years. If the Mets were to take on this contract, he would rank just behind David Wright and Johan Santana for the most money the Mets have ever paid to one player on one contract.
Adding this type of an obligation could create the narrative the Mets are willing to go out and spend whatever it takes to win this year. From some corners, you will likely hear about how the Mets are spending money like a New York team and are now operating with a big payroll. You may even hear the Wilpons get praised for this.
Now, if this is a good trade, Brodie Van Wagenen should receive praise for executing a bold maneuver. He should be given credit for operating within the constraints of the budget to improve the team. And no, this is not the Wilpons expanding payroll.
Remember, part of this deal is the Mariners taking on Bruce’s contract. Also, the team will be collecting insurance money from Wright’s contract and presumably Yoenis Cespedes‘ contract. More than that, his is the cheap way out.
While Cano is owed $120 million, Diaz and/or Haniger are pre-arbitration. More than that, there are more expensive and frankly better options on the market.
Consider for a moment, MLB Trade Rumors projects Manny Machado to earn $30 million a year over the next 13 years. The site also predicts Bryce Harper will also earn $30 million a year but for 14 seasons. By the end of a 13 year deal, Machado will be 39, and at the end of a 14 year deal, Harper would be 40. Of course, both players are likely to receive opt outs.
The question for the Mets is why wouldn’t you spend an extra $6 million to get either Machado or Harper in their prime years? With respect to Machado, we have heard the Mets have classified him as not their type of player. To be fair, we have heard the Mets have not ruled out Harper, and if that’s the case, we cannot prejudge them on that decision.
That said, trading for Cano over going after a Machado or Harper is the cheaper way out, and considering Cano’s age and recent PED suspension, it is one wrought with risk.
Now, it is possible the deal makes more baseball sense for the Mets. After all, trading Bruce helps on the budget front and also on a roster front. Bruce is an poor fit for this roster and moving him makes sense. If you can obtain Diaz, you are getting a player who would likely be the best available closer this offseason. If you can also get Haniger, well, that’s a huge improvement to this roster.
While we can’t prejudge a trade which has not transpired, it is interesting it at least seems the Mets are pursuing this angle instead of signing one of the two biggest free agents since Alex Rodriguez was a free agent after the 2000 season and adding a couple of other relievers in free agency.
Ultimately, Cano is definitely the cheaper option, but it does not make it a worse option. We won’t know that until we see what the final deal looks like (should a deal ever come to fruition) and also what the Mets would do with the money they save in a deal. Hopefully, for once, the cheaper option will prove to be the better option for the Mets.
We’ll see.
The Mets have a number of needs this offseason, and despite those needs, the team is of the belief they can contend in 2019. Two of those needs are a right-handed hitter and a bullpen arm. That’s an expensive item to add in free agency, especially with the team needing to rebuild their bullpen and possibly add a catcher.
The Mariners are rebuilding, and they have those pieces in Mitch Haniger and Edwin Diaz. The issue is the Mariners don’t want to trade those players as they see them as building blocks for the future.
Typically, this is just talk. Untouchable players, especially relievers, are almost always available. The trick is you need to be bowl a team over to get the player, or the player has to force their way out. Remember, Christian Yelich was not available until he became a Brewer. Craig Kimbrel was untouchable until he became a Padre.
The catch is you need to have the prospects to make one of the proverbial godfather offers to pry those players away. Looking at the Mets farm system, while it is improving, it is difficult to argue they have enough to pull off the feat. If the Mariners like Peter Alonso or Andres Gimenez, they could acquire one of Haniger or Diaz, but not both.
That is unless the Mets get creative.
If you create a list of the most untradeable contracts in baseball, you will see Albert Pujols, Chris Davis, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Robinson Cano. Moving Cano is made all the more difficult by his no-trade clause. Add his steroid suspension last year, and it would be completely and utterly shocking to see the Mariners trade Cano.
That doesn’t meant they’re not trying. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports the Mariners have contacted both the Mets and Yankees about taking on Cano’s contract. In the article, it was revealed the Mariners were not willing to take back Ellsbury in the deal.
Considering the Mets budget limitations and how they were burned by the David Wright and now Yoenis Cespedes contracts, it’d be shocking to see the team take on Cano’s contract, and that is before you consider all of his red flags. At 36, he still has five years $120 million on his deal. None of this should mean Cano should be off the table for the Mets.
The Mets do have some bad contracts of their own. For example, Jay Bruce is owed $28 million over the next two years. Jason Vargas is owed $8 million next year with a $2 million buy out should the Mets not pick up his $8 million option. You could certainly argue Cano would be much more productive than Bruce and Vargas combined. Still, that leaves you assuming four years and $96 million. The Mets would really have to be enticed to take that on from the Mariners.
Haniger and Diaz would be awfully enticing.
If you look at it through the prism of five years $120 million for Cano, you would not do that deal. However, five years and roughly $170 for Cano, Haniger, and Diaz doesn’t look too bad. That’s roughly $11 million per year per player. That’s certainly fair value for those players.
Dumping some contracts like Bruce and Vargas could make it more palatable. It could also reduce the perspective prospect cost. Right off the bat, you could offer Alonso, Gimenez, and Dominic Smith. That’s a pretty decent haul, and it could prevent the team from having to have to part with another big piece. If the Mets did this, they ultimately become World Series contenders next year with that lineup:
CF Brandon Nimmo
RF Mitch Haniger
LF Michael Conforto
1B Robinson Cano
3B Todd Frazier
2B Jeff McNeil
SS Amed Rosario
C Kevin Plawecki
Looking at that lineup, and the fact it would be cost neutral for a team potentially trading away Bruce and Vargas, you have to wonder why the Mets wouldn’t do the deal. And if the answer is Cespedes, you can make McNeil a utility player and move Cano to second. Really, if you think about it having a deep bench is not an excuse to make a deal which could win you a World Series.
This is the deal big market teams make to win a World Series. The Mets should start pretending to be one of those teams instead of trading Noah Syndergaard and heading towards another rebuild despite having a young talented core.