Musings
After losing three out of four to the Giants in San Francisco, the New York Mets had 16 games to make a last ditch effort to become relevant. The Mets did just that by winning 14 of those 16 games. Over that stretch, the Mets saw their record go from nine games under .500 to three games over. They also saw themselves go from seven games behind the second Wild Card and 14 games in the division to one game out of a Wild Card spot and eight games back in the division.
Now, we are about to find out if this Mets team is for real.
As easy as the Mets schedule was coming out of the All-Star Break, it is going to be that difficult for the next month. From August 9 to September 15, the Mets play 37 games with 34 of those games coming against teams with a record of .500 or better. When you consider this stretch includes games against the Nationals, Braves, Cubs, and Phillies, you see how the Mets have a real opportunity to face their direct competition and beat them.
As a team still chasing, you cannot ask for a better opportunity. For starters, the Mets are hosting the Nationals this weekend in a series which suddenly has the feels of the July 31 – August 2 series after the Mets obtained Yoenis Cespedes at the 2015 trade deadline. Depending on how this series goes, the Mets could find themselves either four games out and under .500 again, or they could pull themselves into a tie with the Nationals in the standings . . . just like they did in 2015.
One other point here is the Mets are not exactly out of the division race either. With this recent winning streak, they made up six games in the division. The Braves have not been playing as well of late with their being just two games over .500 since the All Star Break. It’s also noteworthy their key trade deadline acquisition, Shane Greene, blew a save and took the loss in his first two games as a Brave. As Mike Petriello of MLB.com points out this may Greene regressing after an unsustainable stretch in Detroit.
The Mets having six games against the Braves gives them a real opportunity to take the Mets chances of winning the division from fantasy to reality. Again, the Mets chances of winning either the Wild Card and the division will hinge on how they play against direct competition.
This is also the exact time the Mets want to face these teams. Since the All Star Break, Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard are the two best starters in the National League with Seth Lugo being the best reliever in all of baseball. Zack Wheeler has a 15.0 scoreless inning streak. Pete Alonso has homered in three straight, and Michael Conforto is red hot. That’s just the tip of the iceberg.
While the Mets 37 game stretch is absolutely brutal, it should be noted that 22 of those games are at home where the Mets are 12 games over .500. Of note, the Mets 20 losses is the fewest home losses in the division with only the Yankees, Astros, Cubs, and Dodgers having fewer losses at home. Put another way, when the Mets are at home, they are as good a team in baseball. That is evidenced by their 113 home wRC+ and 3.76 home FIP being the second best in the National League.
The Mets also have three games at Nationals Park. The Mets have split the first six games with the Nationals there this year, and they are 9-6 at Nationals Park since Mickey Callaway took over as the Mets manager. The Mets are also 8-5 against the Nationals this year, and they are not going to have to face Max Scherzer this weekend and possibly not in the next series.
Another note here is three of the Mets 15 road games come against the Royals who have a -109 run differential and are 12 games under .500 at home. Another three come against the Phillies, and the Mets have historically played well at Citizen’s Bank Park. In fact, the Mets have an all-time 79-67 record there even if they are just 1-6 there this season.
The Mets having a losing record at Citizen’s Bank Park this year brings us to the bad news. The Mets are 28-40 (.412) against teams over .500. If they play that way against teams with a winning record now, they are going to be well out of the postseason picture. When focusing on the specific teams the Mets will face, their records against those teams so far this year does not paint a better picture:
- Braves 4-6
- Cubs 2-2
- Diamondbacks 1-2
- Dodgers 1-3
- Phillies 4-9
- Nationals 8-5
That’s a combined 20-27 (.425). If the Mets play to a similar record, even with a sweep of the Royals, that’s a 17-20 stretch. That puts the Mets at .500 and likely dead.
That all said, this Mets team is different. As noted, the pitching staff is pitching like the best in baseball, and that is before Marcus Stroman gets a turn in the rotation on regular rest. The defense has been much better with Amed Rosario turning the corner. In fact, Rosario has turned the corner completely, and he has finally broken out.
No matter how you look at it, the Mets schedule is an opportunity. If they play well, they can secure the division and possibly put the division in play. If they can stay alive, their reward is 10 straight games against sub .500 teams before the final weekend of the season.
Whether this schedule is a blessing or a curse will depend entirely on how the Mets play. With them going 14-2 over their last 16, they are playing baseball as well as they have all season, and on that front, this is exactly the right time to take on this challenge.
You can hardly blame Mickey Callaway for going to Robert Gsellman in the ninth last night. The Mets are in a race for the Wild Card, and they cannot afford to blow winnable games. With a five run lead in the top of the ninth, that was not a spot for Seth Lugo or Edwin Diaz, but the Mets needed to go with someone whom they can trust.
This meant Gsellman pitching a night after he threw 1.1 innings. He struggled a bit, but he pitched a scoreless inning. As a result, the Mets locked down their fifth straight win, and their 13th win over their last 15 games. They also will be without Gsellman in a game where the unpredictable Steven Matz is scheduled to pitch.
Now, you could argue the Mets could have gone with Luis Avilan or Jeurys Familia in that spot. For Familia, he has shown he has looked better with some rest, so you can understand not pushing him. You can really argue for Avilan with his being one of three relievers who did not pitch in Monday’s doubleheader. With his shoulder history, you can understand the need to save bullets in his arm.
What you cannot understand is not going to Donnie Hart or Chris Mazza last night.
In terms of Hart, the Mets did use him in the 13-2 blowout win over Pittsburgh. He would pitch a clean eighth. He only threw nine pitches in that game, so there were no fatigue issues. If he is a guy who you can only trust with a 12 run lead on the road, why did the Mets waste their time claiming him off waivers?
There’s also Mazza. After blowing the game against the Giants over a week ago, he made two starts in Triple-A before being recalled on August 2. He has not pitched since he was recalled. Make any argument you want as to his true talent level, but the team is not trusting him to close out a five run lead against the worst team in the National League.
Right there, the Mets have two pitchers they don’t trust in that spot. Instead, they opted to use Gsellman leaving him unavailable for today. If Matz doesn’t go deep into the game, that leaves the Mets possibly looking to Hart or Mazza, two pitchers they clearly don’t want to use.
If that is the case, the Mets need to call up one of Chris Flexen or Eric Hanhold. If they want to go off the 40 man roster, Paul Sewald would be a fine choice, especially since the Mets know they can at least trust him to preserve a five run lead. More than anything, this is proof the Mets need to bring in Brad Brach. At a minimum, Brach is someone the Mets can use to preserve a five run lead in the ninth. At a minimum, that makes him a much better use of a roster spot than Hart or Mazza, two relievers who the Mets apparently don’t trust at all.
With Robinson Cano likely down for the rest of the year, the Mets need to figure out what they’re going to do at second base. While Adeiny Hechavarria and Luis Guillorme provide top level defense, their offense is lacking.
The offensive second base option is Jeff McNeil, but that would lead to Juan Lagares or Aaron Altherr in center. That’s effectively the same situation as with Guillorme or Hechavarria.
There was a chance to upgrade somewhat offensively, but Asdrubal Cabrera signed with the Nationals. As luck would have it, the Mets may have another opportunity.
In somewhat of a surprise move, the San Francisco Giants designated Joe Panik for assignment. With the Mets void at second base, it is worth investigating.
So far, this has been the worst year of Panik’s career. He has a career worst wRC+, OPS+, and WAR. It’s hard to make the case a negative WAR and sub replacement level hitter would be an improvement.
On that front, since Cano went down, the combination of Guillorme/Hechavarria/Lagares/Altherr have gone a combined 1-for-19 with three walks and seven strikeouts. No matter how bad Panik has been, he’s better than that. With Panik, there’s also some upside.
In addition to his having a career worst wRC+, he’s also had a career low .254 BABIP. With his having a career .287 BABIP this would indicate a lot of bad luck. Bad luck is further indicated when you look at Panik lowering his ground ball rate, hitting more line drives, and his hitting the ball harder. He’s also been more selective at the plate with a 9.3 perfect walk rate, which is the second best of his career.
Even with numbers indicating he should have better stats, he doesn’t, and he hasn’t for nearly 10 years now. With Scooter Gennett now a Giant, the team has moved on ftom him. They did that despite Panik playing much better defense this year.
No, he’s not the Gold Glove caliber there anymore. Still, his 0 DRS is better than he’s been over the last two years, and it’s a step up from what Cano was defensively.
Looking at Panik overall, if he were on this Mets team, his 69 wRC+ would make him the best hitter out of a group including Altherr, Guillorme, Hechavarria, and Lagares. Like that group, he has a very good reputation as a fielder even if he’s just merely good at second now.
Arguably, the one thing Panik really doesn’t offer is versatility. In his career, he’s only played 9.2 innings away from second base. While a noteworthy, the Mets would be claiming Panik to play everyday. When you look at the options currently available and the chance there’s some upside in his bat, claiming Panik off waivers is a worthwhile endeavor.
Yes, the Mets should claim him. If they don’t, Panik could opt to go to another team under his own volition, or another team, like the Nationals or Phillies could claim him as a bench piece or to even try to block the surging Mets from trying to sign him. Given how much help the Mets need and their depleted depth, it’s time to make Flushing Panik Citi once again.
For most the season, the Mets have been cycling through relievers trying to find the right fit for the last spot in the bullpen. Their inability to find the right fit has cost them a few games in what has been a very critical stretch of the season.
Chris Mazza couldn’t hold down a lead in San Francisco. Tyler Bashlor put a winnable game out of reach in Pittsburgh. That’s just two recent games, and there are countless others. As a result of different relievers failing, the Mets continue to cycle through them trying to find the right fit. Part of this process is the Mets having traded away Wilmer Font and releasing Hector Santiago. The team has also designated five different relievers for assignment. Still, there are some interesting options available.
Chris Flexen has made the transition to the bullpen this year after having struggled as a starter. In his brief five game stint as a pure reliever in the Mets bullpen, Flexen allowed two runs on four hits in 6.1 innings pitched. After one poor outing against the Braves, he was sent back down to Triple-A.
Since being sent down to Syracuse, Flexen has had a 6.94 ERA in 11 appearances, but six of those appearances were scoreless. Perhaps more important that the results is Flexen’s control. The pitcher who has always had issues with control threw 68 percent of his pitches for strikes resulting in his striking out struck out 12 (9.2 K/9) with just one walk in 11.2 inning pitched. If Flexen is able to sustain this level of control, he could be a real improvement in the bullpen.
Looking deeper at the 40 man roster, Eric Hanhold has had a 1.47 ERA since June 20. Over that stretch, he is 2-0 with two saves, and he is holding opposing batters to a .203/.282/.313 batting line. This recent run led to his being promoted again to Triple-A Syracuse. His second stint in Syracuse is going better than his first with him allowing just one earned over 4.0 innings.
In terms of his stuff, Matt Eddy of Baseball America said Hanhold “has a potent power fastball-slider mix that could play in a high-leverage role.” For Hanhold, he doesn’t need to be that yet. Rather, the Mets just need another reliable arm, and he certainly has the stuff to fulfill that role.
Like Flexen and Hanhold, Brooks Pounders has had success for the Mets at the Major League level. In his seven appearances for the Mets in June, he was 1-0 with a 6.14 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9, and a 6.1 K/9. Looking deeper into those appearances, Pounders had six scoreless appearances.
His lone blow-up was his June 24 appearance against the Phillies. Notably, four of the five runs he allowed was in his second inning of work. Part of the focus on that appearance should include his rebounding three days later against the same Phillies team with a scoreless appearance. Looking at that, you could make the argument he should be recalled now. The argument against that is his struggles in Syracuse once he was sent down. In 10 appearances since his demotion, he has a 7.82 ERA allowing batters to hit .310/.410/.528 off of him.
Looking beyond the 40 man roster, there are some choices, but each of those options has their own limitations. The Mets are also further hampered by the fact Ryley Gilliam is on the injured list since July 12.
Perhaps the top option from players not on the 40 man roster is Paul Sewald. Sewald was on the 40 man roster earlier this year, and he pitched well in his four appearances in the Majors this year. In his 38 appearances for Syracuse, Sewald is 3-3 with a 3.61 ERA, 1.437 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9, and an 8.7 K/9. Overall, in terms of Sewald, he is not the most exciting of choices. However, it should be noted he has shown a knack at the Major League level to be a good long man who can both eat up innings and keep the Mets in games. Given the other Mets relievers failures on that front, Sewald’s ability should not be discounted.
The other reliever not on the 40 man roster who stands out is Steve Villines. This year, Villines has dominated Double-A with a 1.11 ERA in 22 appearances. However, he has struggled in Triple-A Syracuse with a 6.75 ERA, 1.938 WHIP, and a 1.50 K/BB in 13 appearances.
Two things to keep in mind with Villines. First, the sidewinder has fared well against right-handed batters limiting them to a .245/.286/.309 batting line. However, he has struggled against left-handed batters with them hitting .253/.371/.437 batting line. With those splits, you could see the Mets benefiting from pairing him with Luis Avilan much like the 2006 Mets did with Chad Bradford and Pedro Feliciano.
The one caution the Mets should have with Villines is his walk rate has increased and strikeout rate has decreased as he has progressed to each level of the minors. With the aforementioned 1.50 K/BB in Syracuse, it should give the Mets pause before promoting him to the Majors in the middle of a chase for the Wild Card.
Overall, it would appear the Mets best options at the moment are Flexen or Hanhold. That is at least the case while Jacob Rhame is on the Injured List. In the end, it may just be the case the Mets need to actually pick a reliever and let them work closely with Mickey Callaway, Phil Regan, and Ricky Bones to figure things out at the Major League level to permit them an opportunity improve and contribute at the Major League level.
While the Mets did not make a trade to improve their bullpen at the trade deadline, they did improve the bullpen by adding Marcus Stroman. Much like in 2015, the Mets are relying upon their starters going deep into games thereby requiring less from their bullpen. When that happens, a bullpen which only needs to use pitchers like Seth Lugo, Edwin Diaz, Justin Wilson, and Robert Gsellman suddenly looks very good.
Then, there is Friday night in Pittsburgh. With Steven Matz only lasting 3.2 innings, the Mets had to go to the part of the bullpen they have not had to in a while. It eventually caught up with the Mets with Tyler Bashlor allowing three earned over 1.1 innings putting a winnable game out of reach.
With the Mets cycling through relievers like Bashlor, Jacob Rhame (10 day IL), Chris Mazza, Stephen Nogosek, and others, it is clear the team is at least a bullpen arm short, and they are attempting to cycle through these pitchers until one sticks. So far, that hasn’t happened, and it is time for the Mets to make a real move. There are some free agent options available.
Brad Brach was recently designated for assignment by the Chicago Cubs in a season where he has gone 4-3, 6.13 ERA, 1.765 WHIP, 6.4 BB/9, and a 10.2 K/9. After seeing his ERA jump in each of the two seasons since his 2016 All-Star season, Brach has put up a career worst 6.13 ERA and a 6.4 BB/9. Beyond the walk rate, opponents have been hitting the ball harder against him, and as a result, he has a high .375 BABIP.
Conversely, he also has the best K/9 since 2016 and the best K% since 2017. Baseball Savant indicates he is above league average in fastball velocity, K%, and xSLB. All told, he still has Major League talent. With Phil Regan and Mickey Callaway, it would be well worth signing a pitcher the Mets have actively pursued over the past few seasons.
Another veteran pitcher who is available as a free agent is Cody Allen. Allen is available because the Los Angeles Angles released him on June 18, and he was released by the Minnesota Twins on July 31 after pitching to a 3.38 ERA with a 1.500 WHIP and 1.40 K/BB for Triple-A Rochester.
The season had gotten off to a good start with Allen converting four save chances to begin the season. Since that time, he has an 8.10 ERA in the Majors. One of the possible reasons for his struggles is his losing fastball velocity. Another reason may be his over reliance on the curveball. While it has been a good pitch for him, he has thrown it with much more frequency with worse results. To be fair, the same can be said for his fastball. Ultimately, with Allen, this is now two straight down years for him, and really, this could just be a sign he is no longer the same pitcher he was for Cleveland.
The hope with Allen is reuniting with Callaway would pay off dividends. Similarly, there may be hope an Addison Reed return to New York would work out well for both sides.
Reed was released by the Twins before throwing a pitch for the team this year. In total, he only made five appearances for Triple-A Rochester during a rehab assignment for a left (non-pitching) thumb sprain. He was shelled over those five appearances allowing eight runs over 5.0 innings. Since being released on May 21, he has not signed with another team.
With Reed, he had not been the same pitcher with the Twins than he was with the Mets. There are a number of reasons including his losing about two MPH off of his fastball making him more hittable. Given the state of the Mets bullpen and depth, it may be well worth bringing him back to the organization on a minor league deal and seeing how he performs in Syracuse.
In the end, the Mets external options are extremely limited. Given how the internal options have performed, it may be well worth claiming Brach and having him work with Callaway and Regan. With his strikeout rate, he could well be worth a flyer. The same can be said with Reed on a minor league deal. Overall, with the performances from the pitchers the Mets are willing to pitch, these players present not just a current upgrade, but also more upside than what we’ve seen.
With Robinson Cano landing on the Injured List, the Mets depth has once again been exposed. Considering how the Mets operate, it is very likely Adeiny Hechavarria will become the team’s everyday second baseman with Luis Guillorme on the bench.
Now, you could argue the Mets should move Jeff McNeil back to the infield, but there are almost no real viable outfield options unless you believe Juan Lagares or Aaron Altherr should play everyday. With them hitting .190 and .111 respectively that is hardly the case. With that in mind, the Mets have few options to upgrade their roster.
Asdrubal Cabrera is about the only free agent available worth investigating. The 33 year old was designated for assignment after hitting .235/.318/.393 in 93 games for a Rangers team falling out of contention. He was not very good in the field either with Cabrera having a -3 DRS in 793.0 innings albeit with a 2.7 UZR.
Cabrera has not been the same player hitting .233/.307/.393 (82 wRC+) since leaving the Mets in the July 27, 2018 trade to the Philadelphia Phillies. Prior to that trade, Cabrera hit .279/.339/.464 as a Met. That includes his phenomenal second half in 2016 which helped propel the Mets to the top Wild Card spot. Part of the reason for that is as Baseball Savant notes Cabrera having below average exit velocity and hard hit percentages. Despite these numbers, it may well behoove the Mets to have Cabrera as a late inning pinch hitter off the bench especially considering his penchant for heroics in big spots.
Past Cabrera, the Mets best internal infield options are Ruben Tejada and Dilson Herrera.
Tejada is probably the one option who could fill-in at shortstop if needed, and he has arguably been hitting better this year than any point in his professional career. In 64 games for Syracuse, Tejada is hitting 343/.421/.498 with 17 doubles, a triple, six homers, and 35 RBI.
The caution with Tejada is he has not played in the majors since 2017, and he hit .230/.293/.283 that year for Baltimore. Tejada played for Triple-A Norfolk the following year hitting .230/.291/.298 in 101 games. When looking at things from that prism, Tejada has made adjustments this year, and as a result, is a much better player; a player who could help contribute at the Major League level.
Like Tejada, Herrera is having a strong season in Syracuse hitting .250/.331/.538 with 23 doubles, one triple, 22 homers, and 48 RBI. Unlike Tejada, Herrera does not play shortstop. However, he may be more versatile with him playing first (28 games), second (24 games), third (31 games), left field (six games), and right field (four games) this year. Ultimately, if he was added to the roster, Herrera could prove to be a right-handed power threat off the bench which the Mets have not had since J.D. Davis has been pushed into everyday duty with Dominic Smith‘s injury.
Herrera still has played 10 games in the outfield for Syracuse, and he was a -2 DRS in 56.0 innings in left for the Reds last year. While that’s an extremely small sample size, it also speaks to how little experience Herrera has in the outfield.
With that in mind and with the Mets lack of outfield depth, the best option in Syracuse would be Rajai Davis, who notably hit a pinch hit homer for the Mets earlier in the year. Unfortunately, he is not an option as he has been on the IL since July 17. Beyond Davis, none of the other outfielders in Syracuse really present even a hypothetical upgrade.
In the end, the Mets decision may be between signing Cabrera or calling up one of Tejada or Herrera. That assumes Herrera is fine after fouling a ball off his shin on Saturday. If he is not good to go, that further limits the Mets already limited options.
Once again, I had the privilege of joining Tim Ryder and Jacob Resnick on the Simply Amazin Podcast. This week, we discussed the trade deadline and the Mets Wild Card chances.
Off the top of my head, I remember discussing Marcus Stroman, Anthony Kay, Simeon Woods Richardson, Noah Syndergaard, Pete Alonso, Tim Tebow, Dilson Herrera, David Thompson, Danny Espinosa, Rene Rivera, Ali Sanchez, Amed Rosario, Robinson Cano, Zack Wheeler, Ruben Tejada, and others.
Aside from the prospect cost, one of the areas in which people have evaluated the wisdom of the Marcus Stroman trade has been the Mets infield defense. It was an issue brought up by Buster Olney of ESPN, former Mets executive and SNY contributor Adam Fisher, and others. Certainly, with Stroman having a career 59.4 ground ball percentage, it is a very important consideration.
Before looking at the Mets, we should first analyze the Blue Jays defense. After all, this is the defense Stroman has pitched in front of during this season.
In total, the Blue Jays as a team have a -6 DRS which ranks them as 19th in the Major Leagues. As a team, they have a .310 BABIP, which is the sixth worst in the majors. When you look deeper into those numbers, the Blue Jays do not have a very good infield defense:
- First Base -4 DRS (24th)
- Second Base -9 DRS (27th)
- Third Base 1 DRS (16th)
- Shortstop 0 DRS (15th)
In total, this is a -12 DRS infield defense. Seeing the Blue Jays right side of the infield defense, you can see why left-handed batters are hitting .272 off of him with a .310 BABIP this year. Another factor to contemplate here is the opponent’s OPS against Stroman is 105 points higher on the turf of the Rogers Centre than anywhere else.
Now, it is fair to say the Mets infield defense has not been good. In fact, earlier this year, Mark Simon of The Athletic noted the Mets were one of the worst infield shifting teams in the majors being one of the few teams who have cost themselves runs by shifting. The Mets team defense is a -61 DRS which stands as the worst in the National League, and it has helped contribute to a .307 BABIP against Mets pitchers.
That .307 BABIP is only slightly better than the one the Blue Jays have yielded. That gives an indication as to how there is not much separation between the two clubs defensively. On that front consider the Mets regular infield defense:
- Pete Alonso -1 DRS
- Robinson Cano – 4 DRS
- Todd Frazier 2 DRS
- Amed Rosario -15 DRS
Even with Alonso and Cano being negative DRS defenders, their combined -5 DRS is significantly better than the Blue Jays -13 DRS on the right side of the infield. That should help Stroman against left-handed batters. That’s important in a division with Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Juan Soto, and Bryce Harper.
On the left side of the infield, Frazier has performed better than the Blue Jays third baseman. That gives the Mets three better defenders than what the Blue Jays typically put behind Stroman. Then there is the issue of Rosario.
At a -15 DRS this year and a -31 DRS over the past two years, Rosario has been the second worst defensive shortstop in the majors. Looking at this, it would appear this is a significant downgrade from the Blue Jays 0 DRS this season. This is damaging when you consider it is at what is considered to be the most important position on the infield.
Lost in that is how Rosario has been a much better defender of late. While it is not the best barometer of defense, it should be noted that while Rosario has 13 errors this year, third worst in the majors, he has only made one error over the past month, and that was on a ball Alonso should have had at first. Looking past that, Rosario has made just two errors since May 8.
Looking at a advanced metrics perspective, Rosario entered the All-Star Break with a Major League worst -16 DRS. That means in the 15 second half games, he has played to a positive 1 DRS. That is similar to what we saw from him when he was called up in 2017 when he had a 1 DRS over 302.0 innings.
If Rosario has figured things out, he is at or better than the 0 DRS Blue Jays shortstops have this year. With Rosario being just 23 years old, his improving defensively is a possibility no one should discount.
With Rosario playing significantly better at shortstop, the Mets defense is actually significantly better than the Blue Jays defense this year. That is an important note to consider when you see Stroman is 6-11 with a 2.96 ERA, 1.227 WHIP, and a 153 ERA+. Overall, it would seem as if Stroman coming to the Mets is actually more beneficial than pitching on the Rogers Centre turn in front of what might’ve actually been an inferior infield defense.
Before going into the weeds on the cost, it should first be noted the Mets are a much better team for getting Marcus Stroman. This is a pitcher who has pitched quite well in the AL East, and he is a pitcher with big game experience being named the World Baseball Classic MVP in addition to some really good postseason performances.
Stroman grew up a Mets fan, and as a result, the Mets are getting a player who should become a fan favorite in short order. Assuming no other moves for a moment, the Mets rotation is very clearly the best in baseball, and you can argue acquiring Stroman makes their chances of making the postseason this year significantly better.
The one ding people will bring up with Stroman is he’s reliant upon a good infield defense to be successful, and the Mets defense has not been good this year. On that note, the Blue Jays have been a below average defensive team this year with a -6 DRS with them having a -4 DRS at first, -9 DRS at second, 1 DRS at third, and a 0 DRS at shortstop. With the Mets having Todd Frazier at third and Amed Rosario playing a to positive DRS in the second half, they fair well in comparison to the Blue Jays. Eliminate the turf, and you can argue this is actually a better situation for Stroman to be even better.
Now, if the Mets were in the position the Braves were in, you understand this trade. Stroman is the piece which arguably puts the Mets over the top. When you roll out Jacob deGrom–Noah Syndergaard–Marcus Stroman–Zack Wheeler–Steven Matz in your rotation, you’re dangerous in both the regular season and post season. As for the bullpen issues, with that collection of five guys, the Mets could take a page out of Alex Cora‘s book last postseason and utilize their starters to dominate the entire series.
Stroman would be an overpay, but it would be one along the lines of the Cubs trading Gleyber Torres for Aroldis Chapman. If you win the World Series, who cares? In some ways, Stroman is even better than that because he is under control for next year as well. This not only gives you the best rotation in baseball right now, but it puts you in a position where you’ve insulated your team from losing Wheeler in the offseason.
The problem with the Mets is they’re five games under .500, and they are six games out of the division and the Wild Card. They are in real striking distance, but they also have many obstacles in their way.
The Mets have three teams ahead of them in the division, and they have four teams ahead of them in the Wild Card standings. The team just lost Dominic Smith which somehow depletes an already suspect outfield depth even further, and it also stands in the way of the Mets finding some more games for Pete Alonso, who is really struggling so far in the second half.
Speaking of depth, the Mets already suspect starting pitching depth did take a hit. On the one hand, yes, assuming no other moves, acquiring Stroman exponentially improves the depth as he’s a significant upgrade over Jason Vargas, who should now find himself in the bullpen. On that note, the bullpen also looks better. However, that assumes no other moves.
At the moment, it seems the Mets are looking to move Noah Syndergaard in a companion move to help fill out the current roster. Of note, the team still desperately needs a center fielder. It should be noted with the current rumors, Manuel Margot isn’t that guy. He’s yet to be a league average hitter in his career, and he’s a -1 DRS this year in center. On that front, it should be noted he was really good prior to this year with an 8 DRS in 2017 and a 9 DRS in 2018.
If the Mets move Syndergaard, they are again relying on Walker Lockett and Corey Oswalt to be their starting pitching depth this year and the next. Aside from one Lockett start this year, that is misplaced faith. This means the Mets need David Peterson to step up instead of hoping one of him or Anthony Kay are ready.
Like with trading Justin Dunn to the Mariners, trading Kay hurt the depth, and it deprived the organization of real starting pitching upside. It also eliminated the possibility of taking either pitcher to send them out there and try to replicate with Seth Lugo or to a lesser extent Robert Gsellman are doing.
Being fair, in the end a package headlined by Kay was a fair return for Stroman. It did make sense to gamble Kay away for the year plus of Stroman, especially if you are really going to go for it as an organization. On that note, they did not do that after trading Jarred Kelenic and Dunn in the trade for Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano. On the Cano point, the Mets are up against the luxury tax next year, and they seem to be already using it as an excuse not to add despite the team collecting tens of millions of dollars in insurance proceeds on David Wright and Yoenis Cespedes while also deferring $12 million of deGrom’s contract.
From a Mets standpoint, the part of the deal which really hurts is Simeon Woods Richardson. This is an 18 year old pitcher already pitching for a full season affiliate. He is getting his fastball up to 97 MPH with a promising and developing curve and change which could both be plus pitches. Despite being almost four years younger than the competition, he is striking out 11.1 batters per nine while having an incredible 5.71 K/BB. This is a special arm, and the Mets traded him away with a top 100 prospect for one plus year of Stroman.
On the Woods Richardson front, the Mets were beyond loaded with teenage talent heading into this year. In addition to him, the Mets had Kelenic, Ronny Mauricio, Mark Vientos, Francisco Alvarez, Shervyen Newton, Luis Santana, and others along with a pitcher like Thomas Szapucki. This was a group poised to break into the majors around 2022, and when they came up, the Mets could have really had a prolonged World Series window open.
With Brodie Van Wagenen as the General Manager, that is what he has been trading away. He has severely hampered the next window from opening. Of course, that assumes the Mets window is currently open. This is a big reason why many baseball people don’t understand this trade. This seems one of those moments like when they pulled off the Cano deal or Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano the Mets are trying to tell us they are smarter then everyone when they’re really not.
Ultimately, you may not like this trade, but you would have certainly understood it if the Mets were 10 games over .500. They’re not. This trade becomes all the more puzzling when you consider they are supposedly doing this as a precursor to trading Syndergaard. Really, when looking at the entire plan right now, none of this makes sense. It makes even less sense if you are trading Syndergaard for prospects because the Mets just obtained one plus year of Stroman and not five.
Overall, this was an overpay for Stroman, and depending on what the Mets do now, it could be a completely unforced error. Typically in these moments, you like to sit and wait before passing judgment on the total plan, but considering how Van Wagenen has lost every trade he’s made thus far, there shouldn’t be much hope this was the first strike in what is one grand master plan.
In essence, enjoy Stroman while he’s a Met. He’s a fun player and really good pitcher who is coming home to pitch for the team he rooted for when he was growing up. Also, root for another hometown kid in Kay and hope Woods Richardson fulfills his potential. Root for everyone to succeed because it helps the Mets in the short term, and it will also help in the long run to remind the Mets that they’re really not better at this than everyone else. They have been and will continue to be considerably worse until Jeff Wilpon realizes he’s the problem.
According to recent reports, for some unfathomable reason, the Mets appear to be pushing to trade Noah Syndergaard. They are looking to trade him despite his trade value being at its proverbial nadir, and they are looking to trade him despite saying they are looking to contend in 2020.
To put it in perspective, Syndergaard is currently 20th in the majors in FIP. That is despite his struggles with the new ball and pitching to Wilson Ramos. We also know he is pitching in front of a National League worst defense. That is why we see the disparity between his 4.33 ERA and his being top 20 in the league in Fielding Independent Pitching.
Ultimately, despite the advanced metrics some like to ignore, it is eminently fair to say this is the worst year of Syndergaard’s career. His stats across the board are at their career worsts. That said, with his stuff and his FIP he remains one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. That is why with him on the trade block we are seeing smart organizations like the Astros, Padres, Twins, and Yankees make a push to get him.
When you are positioned as a team with a player like Syndergaard everyone wants, shouldn’t you at least be questioning why am I looking to trade him to another team? Based upon the trades you have executed this past year which have blown up in your face, at what point do you stop and admit you don’t know more than everyone else? More than any of that, if everyone sees Syndergaard as a piece which puts them over the top, why don’t you see him the same way?
Better put, why aren’t the Mets looking to sign an ace level pitcher with two years of control to a contract extension?
Remember, this is the lowest Syndergaard’s value has ever been, and it is likely this is the lowest it will ever be. After this season, we should reasonably expect the 27 year old to be entering his prime years and take off. We should once again see the pitcher who was one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2016 and has been a big game pitcher.
Remember, Syndergaard is one of the few pitchers in baseball right now able to go toe-to-toe with Madison Bumgarner in a big game. He has a 2.42 postseason ERA with a 12.5 K/9. You build around this player. But the Mets aren’t.
They’re going to look to trade him while selling everyone on getting a haul of players/prospects in return while they sign Zack Wheeler to an extension. Wheeler is a good pitcher in his own right who would be worthwhile extending at the right cost. However, in no way do you look to extend the 29 year old player who his three years older over the 26 year old ace you don’t have to trade.
No, if you are the Mets, you should be looking to extend both players now. You have the opportunity to construct the extensions to best fit your window of contending. We all laugh at the Nationals contract situation, but they have been over .500 and contending for nearly a decade now. Their deferral plan allowed them to go through a Bryce Harper/Ryan Zimmerman core to Juan Soto/Victor Robles core seemlessly.
If the Mets knew what they were doing, and they really operated like a New York franchise, they would be extending Syndergaard and Wheeler. The fact that they’re not speaks volumes as to how poorly this franchise is operated and just how much Major League Baseball needs to intevene.