Musings
The New York Mets were swept in a doubleheader by the Detroit Tigers. With the Tigers being a very bad team (entered the day 10-17), that’s bad news in and of itself, but it’s not quite cause to overreact.
Losing with Adam Ottavino blowing the save in game one is what it is. Ottavino hasn’t quite been what he was last season, and this is the second time out of five chances he has faltered in ninth inning duties. Considering he had a 2.70 ERA before the appearance, this is not cause for alarm.
No, the real cause for alarm was Max Scherzer was very bad . . . again.
In a homecoming of sorts, Scherzer lasted just 3.1 innings allowing six earned on eight hits and one walk. He only struck out three. He allowed two homers. There’s no other way to say it. He was horrible.
More to the point, he has been very bad this season. He’s averaging 4.2 innings per start. Yes, that is partially because of the 10 game suspension, but he also has not pitched beyond 5.1 innings since his Opening Day start.
The 7.9 K/9 stands to be the worst mark of his career. The same goes for the 20.8 K%. His 2.00 K/BB and 2.4 HR/9 also stand to be the worst. Really, all across the board, this looks like it is going to be the worst season of Scherzer’s career.
With Scherzer being 38, this is cause for panic. He is supposed to be a co-ace, and instead, he looks like a pitcher who could be done. He’s not even pitching like an effective fifth starter.
Maybe it was the altered off-season routine because of last season’s oblique issues. Perhaps, it is the pitch clock. Maybe, just maybe, it is the fact, he’s 38 years old, and sooner or later, we were just going to see his performance drop.
Scherzer thinks the layoff hurt him. Maybe, he’s right, but then again, he seemingly has had a lot of excuses this season. He’s needed them too with his performance.
His fastball velocity is down almost a full MPH with it dropping to 92.5 MPH in the start against the Tigers. The average exit velocity against us by more than three MPH. The hard hit rate is a troubling 40.9%. Batters have been able to barrel him up.
Looking at the spin rates in his first start back from the suspension, they were all notably down. That’s not de facto evidence of cheating or a drop off. It could just be frustration and confusion on what to do now after being suspended for using rosin. Remember, David Cone effectively defended Scherzer on Sunday Night Baseball.
The cheating or not aspect misses the point. If Scherzer is now at a loss for what he can and cannot do, we should be at a loss for how Scherzer reclaims his ace form.
The Mets are missing José Quintana. Carlos Carrasco looked done before going on the IL. David Peterson regressed. Tylor Megill hasn’t lit the world on fire. Joey Lucchesi followed a great start against the San Francisco Giants with diminishing returns in his subsequent starts.
This Mets team was built on their starting pitching. Considering they did not improve the offense, their chances of contending are tied to this rotation. Even if Justin Verlander is what we hoped he would be, it looks like the rotation as a whole won’t be. If that’s the case, the Mets are in a very dangerous place.
The start of the season has not been kind to the New York Mets rotation. José Quintana is out until July after his bone graft surgery. Justin Verlander started the season on the IL, and it looks like he’s ready to return after over a month on the IL.
Max Scherzer needed a day between starts, and then, he was given the bogus 10 game suspension. Carlos Carrasco struggled with the pitch clock, and then, he was shut down with right elbow inflammation,.
Kodai Senga has so far struggled getting accustomed to pitching in the Major Leagues. We don’t know if it is the quicker turn around between starts or the ball. Whatever the case is, he’s walking the ballpark, and as a result, he can’t go deep into games.
It’s possible some of the Mets pitchers issues is fatigue caused by the pitch clock. It could also be age. It may just be a mixture of everything. Whatever the case, the Mets rotation is a bit of a mess.
We saw David Peterson struggle and get sent down to Triple-A Syracuse. Tylor Megill has been uneven, but he has probably been the Mets best starter to date. Joey Lucchesi has been a pleasant surprise, and it may be difficult to lift him from the rotation with his early season success.
Looking at everything, the question is why should the Mets look to remove Megill or Lucchesi from the rotation? Sure, it would push the rotation to six starters, but at the same token, that’s what the Mets need right now.
The team is already giving Senga an extra day with Senga not being used to pitching every five days in Japan. Verlander had all of one rehab start, and that didn’t go five innings. Scherzer has needed a break, and Carrasco may return soon.
Another factor is the Mets start a stretch of games where they play six games in five days. Right there, they will need six starting pitchers. After that, they have an off day on Monday, May 8. After that, the Mets play 13 straight games before their next break. Overall, they are set to play 25 games over the next 27 days.
That schedule includes three separate road trips, and the stretch ends with a trip to Coors Field. As we know those Coors Field trips mess up with your pitching staff something fierce.
Taking it all into account, the Mets have pitchers who are still building arm strength. They are still getting accustomed to the pitch clock, and they have been battling fatigue a bit. There is a lot of games bunched together with a lot of travel.
The best way for the Mets to handle it all for the moment is to go to a six man rotation. Keep arms like Scherzer and Verlander fresh. Give Senga a better chance to acclimate to New York. Give Lucchesi and Megill a longer look in the rotation to see who can stick while Quintana and Carrasco is sidelined.
The six man rotation is what the Mets need now to ensure they make it healthy and strong to the end of the season. They need it now to let them survive a tightly packed May schedule.
When Eduardo Escobar got off to a slow start to the season, the New York Mets did what they should have done to start the season. Brett Baty was called up to the majors to become the everyday third baseman with Escobar going to the bench.
Baty has been very good with a 154 wRC+ and a 1 OAA. He has claimed the Mets third base job for now and hopefully over the next decade. With him hitting his first homer against a left-handed pitcher, Buck Showalter is running out of excuses to sit him in favor of Escobar.
While Baty has been thriving, Escobar has been the consummate professional. He has helped Baty, and he also has been there to do whatever he can do to help this Mets team win.
What has gone unnoticed is he has been hitting well of late. Over his last six games played, Escobar is 6-for-19 with a double, triple, two homers, and five RBI. The obvious caveat there is the Mets have been playing him against left-handed pitching which he hits very well.
Still, the more Escobar hits, the more he is going to push his way into the lineup. Looking at Baty over at third, we know Escobar is losing his opportunities to play at third. Honestly, that is probably a good thing with Escobar having a -6 OAA at third last year and a -9 over the two previous seasons.
However, Escobar has been a good defender at second base. In 2021, he had a 3 OAA at second base. Keep in mind, with Escobar being on the bench, he is going to have to be versatile and be able to play more than just third. Fortunately, as we see here, second is probably his best position.
Escobar at second could help solve an issue for the Mets. At the moment, Mark Canha keeps regressing, and the Mets are running out of reasons to keep him in the everyday lineup. He has a 91 wRC+, and he is not hitting the ball hard.
Historically, Jeff McNeil is a better hitter when he plays left field. In his career, he has a .841 OPS as a left fielder against a .806 as a second baseman. That held true last year with McNeil having a .852 OPS at second as compared to a .863 OPS in left (and .896 in RF). Fact is, he’s a better hitter when he’s playing the outfield.
Getting him out there means Canha sits. Right now, the Mets can’t really sit Canha for Luis Guillorme. Guillorme only has an 80 wRC+, which is low even for him. Even more troubling is the -2 OAA at second. If he’s not fielding like he usually does, there really can’t be a spot for him in the everyday lineup.
The biggest takeaway here is the Mets have three players in Canha, Escobar, and Guillorme who are struggling. McNeil being better in left gives the Mets the ability to ride the hot hand between the three. Right now, Escobar is the hot hand. As a result, he needs to get the bulk of the playing time until he needs to come out of the lineup, and/or Canha or Guillorme get going again.
No matter how much Buck Showalter wants to defer to the veterans on his team, he needs to stop going back to his failed instincts and trust what he is seeing. Francisco Álvarez has arrived.
This is something that has been slowly building even with Showalter and the Mets wanting to push this off to a later date. After all, if Álvarez establishes himself as a starting catcher, what is the team going to do with Tomás Nido, a very valuable back-up defensive catcher.
More than that, there is Omar Narváez. The Mets signed him to be the starting catcher. Certainly, he looked every bit of that to start the season. In spots, you never want to see a player lose a job due to injury. More than that, the Mets invested in Narváez to start.
All of that is well and good. However, at the end of the day, the Mets main responsibility is to put the best players on the field in order to win games. At the moment, it is getting increasingly difficult to deny Álvarez isn’t the Mets best catcher even when everyone is healthy.
We saw it against the Atlanta Braves. The Mets were trailing 3-2 in the sixth on the verge of getting swept by the Braves. That’s when Álvarez hit a go-ahead two RBI double to give the Mets the lead.
Álvarez for the LEAD! 🙌 pic.twitter.com/DEVORWIayR
— New York Mets (@Mets) May 1, 2023
Looking at the Mets, this is a lineup devoid of some real bats. Álvarez is one of the few bats with game changing power and potential. He not only can do what the other Mets catchers can’t do, but he also can do what the majority of this Mets lineup can’t.
To be fair, catching isn’t about the bat. More than the other positions, it is the one where you have to sacrifice offense for the sake of defense. The catcher’s work behind the plate is far more important than his 3-4 at-bats per game.
Well, right now, Álvarez is tied for fourth overall in catcher framing runs. Per Baseball Savant, Álvarez has the fifth best called strike rate in the majors. In terms of catching and framing pitches he’s not only the Mets best catcher, he’s one of the best in the game.
Looking over the stats from Baseball Savant, Álvarez has been solid blocking balls in the dirt being slightly above average. He has been a negative in terms of the running game with slower pop times.
When you break it all down, you see Álvarez is ready. There is no need for him to be in Triple-A or backing anyone up. He is the Mets best catcher, and he needs to be treated as such right now. The organization can deal with the ramifications of that in-season.
That’s what you do when you have a prospect like Álvarez. When it is his time, you step aside and watch him become everything you thought he could be. He is doing that right now. The Mets just can’t let their manager or front office ignore this and lose sight of what’s really important – winning games with your best players on the field.
The New York Mets have had too many starting pitching injuries to start the season. In fact, at the moment, Kodai Senga is all that remains from their projected Opening Day rotation.
Justin Verlander and José Quintana started the year on the IL. Verlander is missing over a month, and Quintana is out until around the All-Star Break if not longer. Carlos Carrasco has an elbow injury, and there is a very real possibility he could be done for the season if not for his career.
Max Scherzer needed to have an extra day before his last start, and then he was suspended. Our good friend David Cone would show why the suspension was garbage, but nevertheless, Scherzer was suspended for 10 games.
David Cone's Rosin Experiment. pic.twitter.com/ZI5CnAkZ1C
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 24, 2023
As we know, this has pushed David Peterson and Tylor Megill into the rotation. That wasn’t a big deal as both were good starters for the Mets 101 team last season. Joey Lucchesi also had a history of being a capable Major League starter, so while the Mets may not have wanted him in the rotation, his needing to start wasn’t an issue.
The issue was with José Butto being pushed into the rotation.
Last season, Butto was thrust into the rotation, and the results were ugly. In his lone start, he last just four innings allowing seven runs to the Philadelphia Phillies. Alec Bohm really got the best of him hitting two homers. After that game, there were many who unfairly said he was a bust and would never be a Major League starter.
Fast forward to this year, and Butto was again starting games for the Mets. That is something no one wanted, but this time, Butto has fared far better than anyone would have expected.
Through two starts, Butto has pitched 9 2/3 innings allowing three earned runs. Per Baseball Savant, batters are not hitting him hard at all, and they’re having difficulty squaring the ball up on him.
Of course, it’s not all good news. Butto’s control has been poor, and that’s probably being kind. He’s walked 10 over 9 2/3 innings. That’s more than a walk per inning.
Forget about his 2.79 ERA being unsustainable with those many walks. It’s a flat out recipe for disaster. That goes double when he’s recorded only three strikeouts.
However, he’s getting away with it. There are some good reasons for it. There’s the aforementioned weak contact against him.
There’s also the 57.6% ground ball rate. Weak ground balls are easy outs for an infield with Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil. That’ll get you out of a lot of jams.
The other answer is Butto has faced bad teams in the Oakland Athletics and Washington Nationals. Assuredly, he’d get roughed up by better teams, but he pitched passably against the opponents he had to face.
We can dismiss what he’s done. He’s been five and fly against bad teams. That’s only part of the picture.
He’s also eaten up 9 2/3 innings which could’ve been put on the bullpen. That will help the Mets in the long run. It makes what he did far more important than many realize.
In the end, Butto looks like he still has work to do before he’s Major League ready. In the interim, he’s better than when we last saw him, and he still made a positive contribution to the team. Credit to him for stepping up.
There is no doubt Francisco Álvarez has struggled this season. Entering the series finale against the San Francisco Giants, Álvarez was 2-for-23 at the plate with no extra base hits, no walks, and seven strikeouts. Those are just ugly numbers.
Part of the reason is Buck Showalter and whoever else in the New York Mets organization froze him out. Despite spring training promises Álvarez was going to catch regularly whenever he was called up, Álvarez took a clear back seat to Tomás Nido.
To some degree, you could understand the rationale. Nido is the far superior defensive catcher. He is a superior defensive catcher as compared to nearly anyone. The idea was his work behind the plate offsets his offensive struggles, and that was all the more important with all of the Mets pitching injuries.
With Nido, he better be great behind the plate to carry that career 57 wRC+. Historically, he has been that. The problem is he has not been remotely good at framing to the start of the season posting 45.8% strike rate and 0 catcher runs (Baseball Savant).
This carries the usual small sample size concerns and caveats. However, when you make a short term decision like playing Nido over the long term decision of playing and developing Álvarez, you have to have all of the stats completely in your favor to justify the decision.
The Mets don’t have that at the moment. In fact, from a framing perspective, the still very raw Álvarez has been outplaying Nido.
Like Nido, Álvarez has posted 0 catcher runs, but he has done it with a 50.0% strike rate. His pop times and exchange rates are slower than Nido, and we have seen teams have a willingness to run on Álvarez a little more. That said, at least in terms of purely catching the pitch, Álvarez seems to be the better performer.
He also has much more potential in his bat. We saw it when he took Tyler Rogers deep in the series finale against the Giants. Keep in mind, Rogers is a reliever with a 0.5 HR/9 rate You have to really earn it against Rogers, and that goes double in that ballpark.
Francisco Álvarez became the first right-handed hitter (and only second since start of 2022 season) to take Tyler Rogers deep since Manny Machado on 8/9/2022.
— Mike Mayer (@mikemayer22) April 24, 2023
In that moment, we saw the reason why Álvarez has been compared to Mike Piazza. His power is immense, and his offensive potential is off the charts. He just hasn’t gotten it going in the majors in his brief career.
Again, part of the blame lies on Showalter (or whoever is directing him not play Álvarez). It is a decision hurting the team in the short term, and it can hurt the Mets in the long term. They need to let him learn how to be a better catcher, and they need to let him get into a groove at the plate.
Álvarez is the Mets catcher of the future. If they paid any attention, and if they cared about player development, he could be the catcher of the present. After that homer and looking at all of the numbers, it is beyond time to make the switch.