Musings
In the 121 years Major League Baseball had existed, you know you have to be truly great to be considered the best at anything. For Rickey Henderson, he was the undisputed greatest at two things: (1) stealing bases, (2) leadoff hitter.
Sadly, as immortal as he was as a baseball player, he was still a mortal man. Sadly, he had died at the age of 65 after battling pneumonia.
With Rickey, there is so much to discuss with his Hall of Fame career. He’s the all-time leader in runs and stolen bases. He has over 3,000 hits. He was the 1990 AL MVP and a two time World Series champion.
There was the funny story with the Mets where he walked up to John Olerud to tell him he had a teammate in Toronto who also wore his helmet in the field. That player, of course, was John Olerud.
That story may or may not be true, but it was quintessential Rickey.
When it comes to his Mets tenure, Rickey was a very important part of a team that captured Mets fans hearts. Steve Phillips and the Mets took a chance the 40 year old still had something in the tank, and boy, did he deliver.
In what was the last big year of his storied career, he had a .423 OBP and stole 37 bases. More than that, he was a mentor for a team looking to take the next step. He’d help Roger Cedeño set the Mets then single season stolen base record (66).
More than his mentorship, he came up big when needed. That included his great performance in the NL Wild Card Tiebreaker game.
He’d follow that with a great postseason. He hit .400 with a .500 OBP against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NLDS. It shouldn’t be a surprise he was great as he was always a clutch player.
In some ways, Bobby Valentine helped coax Rickey’s last great year by finding him spots to rest. What it did was create unrest. Rickey would force his way away from the Mets in 2000.
While it seemed he quit on the Mets, he never quit on baseball. When teams didn’t want to sign him, he played in the Independent Leagues waiting for Major League teams to call (they would).
Imagine loving baseball that much. A future Hall is Famer, the greatest leadoff hitter of all-time, playing with has beens and never will bes just because he loved the game that much.
Rickey always had an ego (well deserved), but his ego wouldn’t stand in the way of his playing the game he loved. He played baseball until no one would have him play. His career spanned until he was 44.
Eventually, Rickey lost that fight and retired. Sadly, he lost the fight for his life as well. Despite losing those fights, he wins because Rickey is immortal.
He’s enshrined in Cooperstown. He’s the stolen base king and best lead-off hitter of all-time. People remember him for that and his talking about himself in the third person, and the great stories.
We’ve been lucky to be able to see Rickey at his best. We’re lucky to have experienced his greatness. We’re lucky because even in death his legend will never die.
The commentary when the New York Mets signed Francisco Lindor was he was grossly overpaid. That was a narrative screamed all over the airwaves, and it was at its most intense during Lindor’s early season slump.
Of course, the narrative was always false, and as usual, it had a twinge of #lolMets to it. With his near MVP season leading the Mets to the NLCS, Lindor shut that narrative up . . . for now.
Enter Juan Soto.
Soto received a MLB record 15 year $765 million contract. That carries a $51 million AAV. It’s a staggering number, and when he’s paid more than Shohei Ohtani, you’re allowed to question the disparity.
We can point out Soto is four years younger and just now entering his prime years. We can discuss Soto’s durability against Ohtani’s injury history. There’s more to contemplate, but it’s all a pointless exercise.
Determining whether or not Soto is overpaid is directly tied to the value he brings the team.
Each offseason had its own trends, but over the past six seasons, teams have paid roughly $7.6 million per 1 WAR. As a result, for Soto to be worth the deal, he would have to produce a 6.7 WAR per season.
On that note, Soto is coming off a season with a 7.9 WAR. Two of his past four seasons have exceeded 7.0 WAR. If Soto produces at this level during the peak years of his deal, he’s exceeding the AAV paid to him.
Of course, the $7.6 million is an average. We have twice seen the value surpass $9 million. At a $9 million valuation, Soto would only need to average a 5.7 WAR to be worth the deal.
Of course, this presumes WAR/$ doesn’t increase with increased revenues in baseball. As the WAR/$ increases, Soto’s production need not be at the 5-7 WAR value to be worth the deal.
Of course, the Mets signed him to be exactly that. As seen with pure hitters like Yordan Alvarez, Edgar Martinez, and Frank Thomas a hitter of Soto’s caliber can absolute produce that value.
Yes, this presupposes Soto will hit like a Hall of Famer. That’s what he’s done in his career, and there is zero expectation he will suddenly cease being that.
Look, the Mets signed Ted Williams. With apologies to Darryl Strawberry, the Mets finally landed the next Ted Williams.
There’s knowledge that comes with being that level of a hitter. As Soto discussed in his press conference, his discussions with Aaron Judge made both better.
Notably, it was the best years of Soto’s and Judge’s careers. It’s a relationship Soto can now have with Lindor. Moreover, think of the impact Soto can have on Francisco Álvarez and Mark Vientos.
There’s also the message adding a player like Soto sends to the rest of the league. Look at the Mets back at Pedro Martinez in the 2004 offseason. It paved the way for Carlos Beltran and eventually Billy Wagner.
Was Pedro worth his contract? Well, partially thanks to Jeff Wilson, certainly not. However, it was a move which made the Mets relevant, and it led to helping the Mets acquire players which would nearly lead to a pennant.
The Mets arguably already had that with Lindor. However, acquiring Soto pushes things even further. It puts the team on par with the Los Angeles Dodgers and their three MVPs.
The Mets are at a completely different level now. They haven’t been here since the 1980s. The Mets are now set to have a decade plus run as a World Series contender.
Lindor brought relevance. Soto takes the Mets to a new level entirely. Yes, Soto’s production will mostly likely be worth $51 million per year. The extra intangibles he brings means he will assuredly be worth every single last penny of the deal.
The St. Louis Cardinals are doing a “reset” and looking to part with some of their biggest contracts. As part of that, they’re looking to trade Nolan Arenado, who has named six teams he’s be willing to be traded.
One of those teams is the New York Mets. There’s a lot to consider when contemplating such a trade.
First, Arenado has three years $64 million remaining on his deal for whoever obtains him. The three years are broken down as $27 million (2025), $22 million (2026), and $15 million (2027). That’s not an onerous contract for the Mets.
Addressing Pete Alonso for a second, he turned down a 7 year $158 deal ($22.6 million AAV). As such, he’s likely going to carry a higher cost over the next three years than Arenado.
In theory, executing an Arenado trade would be cheaper than re-signing Alonso. As a result, the Mets could free up money to do other things like sign Sean Manae and rebuild their bullpen (again).
Before getting there, let’s analyze what Arenado is and is not; what he would do for the Mets.
First and foremost, Arenado brings defense. No, he’s not the otherworldly defender he was three years ago. He’s regressed into merely being ONLY the third best defensive third baseman in the game.
That addresses a major problem the Mets had. Mark Vientos’ bat was a revelation which took the Mets to new heights. His glove was better than advertised but still not good.
Vientos was the fifth worst defensive third baseman. Moving him to first already improves the Mets defensively. Replacing him with Arenado is like going from the discovery of the wheel directly to a race car.
Arenado and Francisco Lindor would immediately become the best defensive left side of the infield in the game. It could rival Rey Ordoñez and Robin Ventura. It would be that great.
A defensive upgrade like that makes the pitching staff better. With David Stearns optimizing run prevention, this would seem like the perfect move.
It’s far from a no brainer. After all, if you’re going to part ways with Alonso, you better be sure it’s the right decision.
The biggest hesitation with Arenado is the bat. He will be 34 on Opening Day, and he’s clearly in decline.
In 2022, Arenado posted a career best 149 wRC+. In the subsequent two years, he’s posted a 106 and a 102.
He’s coming off a year with a career worst in nearly every offensive metric. He barely barreled any pitches (3.2%), and he had a career low exit velocity. Both appear part of a career decline.
Simply put, he’s not hitting the ball hard anymore. He’s a league average hitter, and in all likelihood, he will soon be a below average hitter.
Now, Arenado’s defense is at a point where it can offset the dip in offense. He will likely be a productive player, and with his salaries deceasing, he should fulfill his contract.
Still, Alonso is a far superior hitter. In a down year, he had a 122 wRC+. He still has game changing power as evidenced in the NL Wild Card Series. Part of the issue for the 30 year old is how many more years he has as a premier slugger.
In an ideal world, the Cardinals would take back Starling Marte in a trade. However, it’s hard to see the Cardinals taking back a 36 year old right fielder making $20.75 million.
That could be the case even if the Mets were also willing to take on Steven Matz and his $12.5 million contract. As an aside, Matz would help in the bullpen.
If the deal makes sense, the Mets should go get Arenado. He will make them better. He probably raises the ceiling more than Alonso would. That all said, if the Mets go this route they better be right.
The New York Mets landed Juan Soto, and it just seems like everything got crazier. The starting pitching market is starting to heat up, and the team is going to be pushed to sign Sean Manae or look elsewhere.
If not, Manae, then who? Walker Buehler? Wait out Roki Sasaki?
Oh, and by the way, are the Mets going to be able to keep Pete Alonso?
While this is all happening, the Mets have yet to address their biggest need – the bullpen.
The bullpen was easily the Mets biggest weakness in 2024. It almost cost the team a chance of being competitive, and later, it almost cost them a chance of making the postseason.
By and large, the biggest disparity between the Mets and the Los Angeles Dodgers was their respective bullpens. The Dodgers rode theirs to a World Series, and they annihilated the Mets bullpen en route to winning.
As we know, the Mets are set at closer with Edwin Díaz. Now, they need to work on building the bridge to him.
Ryne Stanek served that role extremely well in the postseason. He had only allowed one earned over his first 5.2 innings, and he had that incredible 2.1 inning appearance in Game 5 of the NLCS picking up the win.
He’s won a World Series with the 2022 Houston Astros. Overall, he has a 2.89 postseason ERA going 4-0 with a 0.821 WHIP and a 9.3 K/9.
He’s a clutch postseason reliever. For Mets fans of old, it’s reminiscent of Dennis Cook. With the goal being to win the World Series, you want Stanek in your bullpen.
Now, the regular season has been a different story. Truth be told, he had a bad 2024, and that included his 6.06 ERA in 17 appearances with the Mets.
Still, he is a quality reliever with a career 114 ERA+. Also, as noted by Eno Sarris of The Athletic, Stanek is one of the best relievers available per that Stuff+ metric.
As noted by Fangraphs, Stuff+ “aims to capture the “nastiest” pitches in baseball, using a decision tree-based model to capture the nonlinear relationships that exist across release points, velocities, pitch movement, and more.” Read the article for more detail.
This is again where Jeremy Hefner factors into the equation. He’s long been a good pitching coach, but this past season was likely his best. He did wonders across the pitching staff. That included his work with Stanek.
Stanek has always had great stuff. He’s at his best in the big moments. He’s shown he can handle the stage. He’s everything the Mets need and want, and the team should make sure to keep him.
Let’s be honest for a moment. When Steve Cohen purchased the New York Mets from the Wilpons, he never said he was going to have the highest payroll in baseball.
That was just our assumption. Actually, it was our prayers. We felt like we deserved it after the Wilpons austerity.
What Cohen did say was he planned to emulate the Los Angeles Dodgers. He’s officially done that. He just had to bide his time.
Where the Dodgers hired Andrew Friedman, the Mets have David Stearns. Where the Dodgers traded and extended Mookie Betts, the Mets did that with Francisco Lindor.
Now, where the Dodgers got Shohei Ohtani, the Mets landed Juan Soto.
The Dodgers got to be THE destination. Look, Ohtani was only considering the Dodgers. We can argue whether he coordinated with Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Looking back, Yamamoto seemed like the test of Cohen’s power. The Mets were all-in on him and gave him the biggest offer. To be fair, the Dodgers matched the Mets offer.
It also isn’t like players had spurned the Mets. Both Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander eagerly joined the Mets after receiving big contracts.
People can laugh at those deals all they want, but it worked out well for the Mets. Scherzer helped lead the Mets to the postseason. Moreover, the Mets have already benefitted from the trades with Luisangel Acuña being an important contributor down the stretch in 2025.
The Mets are being built the way you build a team that will be good and relevant for the next decade and beyond.
This plan really started in 2023 when Stearns took the helm. The decision to sit back and see what was here actually paid massive dividends.
Pitchers want to come here now with Sean Manae’s career reaching new heights, Luis Severino saving his career. Laugh at Grimace all you want, but that, the OMG, and the winning (mostly the winning) make the team something that made players want to be a Met.
This isn’t about poaching Soto from the New York Yankees. It’s not a big brother-little brother thing. It’s about making the Mets the best team in New York and perhaps all of baseball.
As Jeff Passan of ESPN said, “I think Juan Soto looked at the New York Mets’ future … and believed that the Mets have a better future than Yankees.”
Yes, the Mets have Lindor and Brandon Nimmo. They also have budding stars in Francisco Álvarez and Mark Vientos. Just imagine for a second the stratosphere Soto and his hitting genius can help take Alvarez and Vientos.
The Mets are set to win in 2025 because of what was already at Citi Field. This is an NLCS team who just added Soto.
Maybe the Mets win in 2025. Maybe they don’t. The National League is still a gauntlet with the Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, and Padres.
Still, the Mets have one of the best teams in baseball with high level talent from the minors on the way. This team is special and will be a special one for years to come.
For those of you who don’t remember the 1980s, even with them winning just once, the Mets were THE team. They’re on the path to being that again.
That started with Cohen. It continues with Soto. Promises are being fulfilled, and our wildest dreams are coming true.
There was a time WFAN was the best talk radio station in New York. Probably America. We can pinpoint different moments it started to fall apart.
Dom Imus’ Rutgers scandal probably led to where we are. That was a factor in Mike and the Mad Dog eventually splitting. It brought on Craig Carton which began the tone of the station.
Gone was pure sports talk. Now, it was sensationalism. Pure shtick replaced debate and discussion. It’s been all downhill from that.
That brings us to McPherson. If you’ve heard him, he’s a troll. Mets fans are his favorite targets, but in sum, he’s a troll.
Then, there’s Jon Heyman. He’s an easy target with his typo ridden tweets. He’s seen as a Scott Boras lackey sending out info to help give Boras leverage in negotiations.
Of course, that could also be seen as the strength of Heyman. He has a good relationship with the best agent in sports who represents the best players – players like Pete Alonso and Juan Soto.
With Soto on the verge of getting a record setting deal, everyone is eagerly anticipating to see where he will sign. With Heyman being the reporter with the pipeline to Boras, everyone wants to talk to him.
For his part, Heyman hasn’t been discerning. He’s been willing to talk to everyone and anyone. That includes talking to McPherson on the Friday overnight.
The professionalism is commendable. If only that was reciprocated by McPherson, who probably doesn’t get this caliber of guest (don’t bother correcting me, I’m not interested in listening more than I’ve had to find out I’m wrong).
For his part, Heyman tried laughing along with the “joke” he was on the take with Boras. He tried rolling with the punches over Arson Judge. The thing is McPherson didn’t know when to quit.
That’s probably wrong. He likely knew what he was doing. He didn’t intend to inform his listeners about Soto, and to a lesser extent, Alonso.
Nothing on new Mets starter Clay Holmes. This was just an exercise in getting Heyman riled up and losing his cool. To that, McPherson got what he wanted with Heyman hanging up saying he was quitting WFAN forever.
It’s not too dissimilar from Carl Banks doing the same with Sal Licata. Where there’s a lack of knowledge, there’s pure shock value even if it comes at the expense of the dignity of the guest.
Sure enough, while most were coming down on McPherson for his lack of professionalism, fellow WFAN host Greg Gianotti came swooping in to McPherson’s defense:
I guess the purposeful misspelling was supposed to be funny. In reality, it’s the perfect way to sum it all up. Failed shtick designed for shock value that’s not funny not matter how desperate it tries.
This is a far cry for what WFAN used to be. No sports were discussed. Just unfunny trolling. It’s all just lame. We deserve better, but sadly, nothing will change.
The biggest thing we know about Gleyber Torres is he never became the player the New York Yankees thought he’d be. He was destined for superstardom only to become an enigma.
He was an All-Star his first two seasons with two 3+ win seasons. From there, well, he never made the leap. He’s just been an average to believe average regular.
He’s coming off his worst season leading the Yankees to not even offer him the qualifying offer. This makes him a perfect buy low candidate.
At 28, Torres is in the prime of his career. Looking over at Baseball Savant, the offensive skills are still there. He doesn’t swing and miss and can still barrel balls. An adjustment here and there, and he can return to the 120 wRC+ level he was at the beginning of his career.
The larger issue with him is his defense. Simply put, he’s a bad second baseman, and he always has been. He needs to move off the position. He refuses even when the Yankees obtained Jazz Chisholm at the trade deadline.
He would seem to be better suited to third. He’s better moving to his right, and he’s far better charging in than moving back.
We shouldn’t read too much into his StatCast arm strength readings. After all, most of the throws from second are flips leading to lower MPH readings. If you dig deeper, he can throw 92 MPH, a speed more than sufficient for third base.
Again, the larger issue is he’s been hesitant to move. Perhaps, this is where his relationship with Carlos Mendoza would help.
Torres sees Mendoza as a father figure who has brought out the best in him. Torres’ best two years were 2022-2023 when Mendoza was the Yankees bench coach. After Mendoza left to manage the Mets, Torres struggled.
If you really think about it, Torres could give the Mets similar production at third than what Willy Adames could. Torres should come cheaper and without qualifying offer penalties.
The Mets need a third baseman with upside. They always need players who can handle New York. Torres needs Mendoza.
Ultimately, this is a move that would benefit both sides. Torres will be better playing under Mendoza, Torres needs to move to third, and the Mets need a third base upgrade. It’s a move that makes sense and should happen.
MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred has been determined to leave his own stamp on Major League Baseball. Where most commissioners have long erred towards protecting the integrity of the way the game has been played, Manfred has not been afraid to push the envelope.
Some of his moves have been roundly applauded. While there were time parameters for pitchers, Manfred added enforcement mechanisms that put real penalties for the failure to comply with the rules already in place.
Other measures have really antagonized baseball’s loyal fanbase. Right off the bat, the extra inning ghost runner is a bastardization of the sport.
The same can be said for the shift rules. People have been screaming for more disciplined hitters who learned to use the whole field. Instead, Manfred put rules in place which rewarded the all-or-nothing approaches at the plate which have aggravated many fans.
Overall, the theme has been pace of play and increased offense. That was a large reason for the universal DH. It didn’t matter there was nothing to support the call for a universal DH.
We now have the universal DH to go with the intentional walk rule and ghost runners. Notably, none of these rule changes are leading to improved attendance. In fact, attendance is down from where it was a decade ago.
All of the least viewed World Series have come during Manfred’s tenure. Not even a Yankees-Dodgers World Series could generate ratings baseball saw a decade ago.
The universal DH was put in place in 2022. With it has come DECREASED interest in the game.
Rather than acknowledging the failures of the rules implemented, Manfred seems set to double down with the Golden Batter Rule. The rule is a team can choose one point in the game to bat their best hitter when they want.
Like with all the other rules, it’s not baseball. It’s an abomination.
And yet, we see the rule inexplicably has its champions. The biggest proponent is Michael Kay. We can obviously surmise from here that his whole shtick is being a contrarian and/or he’s preparing for a life with Aaron Judge being the only real hitter in that lineup.
Call it the Golden Batter. In reality, it’s just an extension of the Universal DH.
We’ve gone from who wants to see pitchers hit to who wants to see the bottom three in the order with the game on the line. There is no real appreciable difference.
When people signed on for the universal DH, they logically signed on for this. Instead of agreeing to the provisions of the sport allowing for pinch hitters, people argued for the flawed and failed DH.
Now, they’re probably going to get the next level of it. It’s a special situation DH. It’s a why end the game with a team’s worst hitter when you can see their best.
Instead of allowing baseball to be great like it’s been for over a century, we get people trying to generate greatness. It’s all just antithetical to what the sport actually is.
Baseball was forever tarnished with the universal DH. This is the next step. Next, we will just see any three batters to start any inning. With each passing change, we will see baseball slowly disappear.
While this is happening and interest continues to wane, we will have people continuing to argue another change is needed. The sad truth is baseball was great as is, and the sooner we all realize it, the better off we will all be.
Last year, a large part of the New York Mets making the postseason was their rolling the dice on Sean Manae and Luis Severino. Apparently, David Stearns is looking to execute the same plan for 2025.
The Mets agreed to terms with Frankie Montas on a two year $34 million deal. Like with Manae last year, Montas can opt out after the first year of the deal.
Last Mets fans saw Montas, they knocked him out of the fourth inning of Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series. He had allowed three runs (one earned) on six hits and three walks on 60 pitches.
Truth is, Montas hasn’t been all that good for a few years now. Back in 2022, much of baseball thought the New York Yankees got off cheap acquiring Montas from the Oakland Athletics at the trade deadline.
Prior to that deal, Montas had pitched six years for the Athletics posting a 111 ERA+ and a 3.72 FIP. He finished sixth in the 2021 Cy Young voting.
In all of Montas’ other stops, he was a 92 ERA+ or worse. At least in terms of the Yankees, it was due to a series of injuries. That right there is your Mets/Severino parallel.
Like with Severino, the Mets are grabbing Montas the year following the proof he was healthy. Montas did make more starts and threw more innings.
The Mets hope they can have Montas improve upon the pitcher he was with the Milwaukee Brewers. In Milwaukee, he roughly pitched 5+ innings per start while striking out 11 per nine.
Even with the uptick in his K/9, his K% was lower than it was with the Yankees. Digging deeper, his Baseball Savant page is a lot of blue. He’s not getting good extension or spin, and perhaps not coincidentally, his whiff rates are low.
Still, we saw Jeremy Hefner get the most out of this pitching staff last year. Manea radically altered his delivery. Peterson changed his pitch mix to feature his sinker more. Severino stopped tipping his pitches.
Between Hefner and the analytics, the Mets are showing they can get the most out of their starters. At one time, Montas was viewed as a top of the rotation pitcher. The Mets are gambling by presumably giving him the fourth or fifth starters job to earn his way back to that status.
With the Mets, you’d think they’re at a spot where they don’t take projects like this. It’s what makes this signing odd. You thought after 2024, they would be in a different spot.
Then again, this is why they hired David Stearns. This is what could give them the room to sign Juan Soto along with whatever else they need.
Still, this is a gamble, and that’s what makes this signing so odd.
The Los Angeles Dodgers made the first big signing of the offseason by inking two time Cy Young winner Blake Snell to a five year deal. The deal was worth $182 million comprised of a $52 million signing bonus and deferred money.
With Snell, the perfect conditions were in place for things to get done this quickly:
- The Dodgers targeted Snell;
- The Dodgers will World Series contenders in 2025;
- The Dodgers have very deep pockets; and
- Snell lingered on the free agent market last offseason leading him to want to strike a quick deal this offseason.
For the Mets, Manae has vocalized his wanting to return to the Mets. The team and organization love him with teammates attending his wedding.
Manae finally seemed to hit that ceiling people thought he was capable of reaching. Part of that was changing his delivery to emulate Chris Sale. Another important factor was the analytics department coupled with Manae’s work with pitching coach Jeremy Hefner.
While not as long as Snell, Manae did have to wait until January to sign. He got a similar deal to Snell in both received a one year deal with a player option (both obviously declined their options).
Manea is a year older than Snell without the same historic success. Snell was the better of the two, but Manae was one of the better starters in the second half of the season.
Manae is not going to get a similar contract. That said, there should be an avenue for the Mets to strike early.
We know the team needs at least two starters. We don’t know where Corbin Burnes market will go. There are prevalent rumors Roki Sasaki going to the Dodgers is a fait accompli. There are other options with equal issues.
With Manae, you know there’s a pitcher who wants to be there. You know this is a pitcher who thrived in New York. He’s a pitcher who is everything the Mets could need or want.
The Mets need to move quickly to lock in Manae like the Dodgers did with Snell. They need to remove some uncertainty with their rotation. They need to move quick to sign Manae before someone else does.