COVID19
The Mets had this one. With Jake Marisnick, Brandon Nimmo, and Pete Alonso homering, the Mets had a 5-3 lead, and it looked like Steven Matz was going to get the win on his birthday.
Then, in the eighth, Cody Bellinger hit a three run homer off Dellin Betances. With that, the Mets 5-3 lead turned into a 6-5 loss.
Much like we’re seeing with Jacob deGrom, for one reason or another MLB The Show doesn’t have Marcus Stroman pitching to the level he does in real games. We saw that again today as he took the loss against the Phillies after allowing three runs over five innings.
The Mets offense amounted to a Michael Conforto solo homer off Vince Velasquez in the Mets 5-1 loss.
The Mets had the tying runs on base with no outs in the ninth. J.D. Davis would prove to be unable to hit one out in the bandbox that is Citizen’s Bank Park. From there, the Mets wouldn’t be able to push home a run in the Mets 6-4 loss.
Somehow, Jacob deGrom took the loss after allowing six runs over five innings. Clearly, MLB the Show needs to correct their algorithms.
The Mets had a 4-0 lead through four with Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto hitting homers. Michael Wacha was in line for the win after allowing one earned over six:
He’d start the seventh loading the bases with no outs. Jeurys Familia relieved him by allowing all the inherited runners to score plus one of his own. When was all said and done, Familia was the pitcher of record in the Mets 5-4 loss.
This was not the Mets day. It was 6-0 before the Mets scored a run, and the Braves scored in five of eight innings in their 13-2 drubbing of the Mets.
Rick Porcello took the loss after allowing six runs over 3.2 innings. Michael Conforto knocked in the Mets only two runs with a sixth inning two run homer.
Yesterday, the Mets needed a ninth inning rally to beat the Braves. Today, things were not nearly as dramatic as Michael Conforto‘s RBI ground out in the second gave the Mets a 2-1 lead and the lead for good.
That lead grew to 3-1 on a Yoenis Cespedes RBI double. Pete Alonso homered in the first, and Wilson Ramos homered in the eighth in the Mets 4-1 win.
Steven Matz picked up the win after limiting the Braves to one run over six. Edwin Diaz earned the save.
At this moment, MLB and the MLBPA are negotiating on ways baseball can be played safely in 2020. Part of the proposals in the 67 page document were social distancing measures. Those measures included keeping players apart in the dugout and utilizing the empty stands to do that. There was also the suggestion fielders “retreat several steps away from the baserunner.” (ESPN). That suggestion is well founded.
The CDC has strongly recommended social distancing measures which include keeping six feet away from people. That is both indoors (like a clubhouse) and outdoors (like a baseball diamond). The reasoning is “COVID-19 spreads mainly among people who are in close contact (within about 6 feet) for a prolonged period.”
The stolen base and the threat of the stolen base prevents that six foot separation from occurring.
Now, as detailed in a 2015 Grantland article, even the shortest of leads is over nine feet. In and of itself, those leads provide sufficient social distancing measures. However, that’s only part of the problem.
Periodically, a pitcher will throw over to first. The amount of times a pitcher throws over increases when there’s a fast runner, i.e. stolen base threat, like Ronald Acuna Jr. or Billy Hamilton at first.
On those plays, the base runner dives back into first as the first baseman lunges down to apply the tag. The other situation is the base runner gets back without sliding, and he’s now standing almost face-to-face with the first baseman.
Right there, you have a violation of the CDC social distancing guidelines and MLB’s request fielders position themselves several steps away from the base runner.
There’s also the matter of MLB wanting balls touched by multiple players be thrown out. That means on every throw over, a ball needs to be discarded. Basically, a pitcher throws over, a first baseman applies a tag, and then timeout is called so he can discard the ball.
Assuming the base runner isn’t deterred, his taking off for second creates another series of issues.
First and foremost, he’s now well within six feet of the second baseman or shortstop. That means in all likelihood the base runner has been with six feet of the catcher during his AB, the first baseman on the pickoff attempt, and now the middle infielder on the stolen base attempt.
This means the plans to keep players separated go completely kaput once a runner reaches first.
We then get back to the matter of the ball. On a standard stolen base attempt, three people touch the ball – pitcher, catcher, and middle infielder. If there’s a run-down created by a pick-off or stolen base attempt, all hell breaks loose.
Looking at it, MLB wants players to keep distance as much as possible, and they want as few people as possible touching the ball. That’s simply not possible in a game where players reach base and can advance on a stolen base.
The question for MLB is how they choose to address it.
If the goal was safety and social distancing, perhaps, it’s time MLB prevents players from stealing bases in 2020.
Sure, it seems drastic and draconian. It’s also a major rule change, which impacts the way the game is played. The same can be said for the rules MLB already has implemented in 2020. That includes a universal DH and radical realignment. Those changes also take the game and makes it look much different from the way it looked and was played in 2019 and all of baseball history.
While eliminating stolen bases is a radical change, it’s not as impactful as you might imagine. In the 1980s when Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, and Vince Coleman were running wild, this would have completely changed the game. Now, not so much.
In 2019, there were 2,280 stolen bases. Over 2,430 games, that’s fewer than a stolen base per game. With attempts, this may push it to one stolen base attempt per game. While we know the impact that one stolen base may have (Dave Roberts Game 4 2004 ALCS), on the whole, the lack of that attempt is not dramatically impacting the game.
Looking at it, this is again about health and finding ways for players to safely play the games. Taking out the constant close contact between a first baseman and base runner does that. In lieu of that, there can be a designated spot where runners may take their lead, and first baseman can be permitted to play back on every play.
Is this ideal? No, not in the least. Really, no one wants to see baseball eliminate the stolen base much in the same way National League fans don’t want to see a DH (which is still absurd for many reasons). However, what people want even less is seeing players get infected with COVID19. As a Mets fan, I don’t want any situation wherein Pete Alonso even has a 1% chance of getting COVID19. As a human being, I don’t want to see that happen to any player.
With that in mind, the safest possible course is to eliminate the stolen base in 2020.
The Braves got out to a 6-1 lead against Marcus Stroman and the Mets. However, Stroman would not get saddled with the loss.
In the sixth, the Mets pulled to within 6-4 after homers by Jeff McNeil and Robinson Cano.
In the ninth, Amed Rosario got the game winning rally started with a lead-off double. Later in the inning, McNeil hit his second homer of the game. This one was a go-ahead three run homer giving the Mets a 7-6 lead.
After a Yoenis Cespedes sacrifice fly scoring Pete Alonso, the Mets led 8-6. With Justin Wilson pitching a scoreless eighth, he picked up the win. Edwin Diaz recorded the save.
When Pete Alonso scored in the fourth, the Mets were tied at 1-1. With Jacob deGrom on the mound, the expectation was the Mets were in for a close game.
Unfortunately, in the seventh, deGrom allowed an RBI single to Ildemaro Vargas. With two outs and two on in the inning, Luis Rojas lifted deGrom for Robert Gsellman.
Gsellman allowed both inherited runners to score. The Diamondbacks would add insurance runs to win this game 6-1.
In the top of the third inning, the Mets fell behind 1-0. In the bottom half, they’d take the lead for good on a Pete Alonso two run homer:
That third inning run was the only run Michael Wacha would give up in his five innings of work. The Mets bullpen did him one better by following with four scoreless innings.
The Mets 2-1 lead expanded to 4-1 when Brandon Nimmo hit a two run homer of his own.
In the game, Wacha would pick up the win, and with a scoreless ninth, Edwin Diaz was credited with a save.