As we near pitchers and catchers reporting for Spring Training on Monday, it appears the Mets have few position battles.  The few that exist are really over which pitchers will make the Opening Day rotation and what role they will have.  Like much of what the Mets have done since he was first injured on the eve of the 2015 season, it seemingly all depends on Zack Wheeler.

For a while it seemed that he was going to start the year in the bullpen, but his recent comments to Kevin Kernan of the New York Post cast some doubt over that with him saying, “I don’t even know if I could do every other day in the bullpen.  It was a struggle for me to get every fifth day. That’s because I’ve started my whole life.”

Wheeler has a point.  It may not be best for either him or the Mets to put him in the bullpen.  It may be best for him to start the year either in extended Spring Training to let him continue to build up his arm strength while also limiting his innings or for him to begin the year in the rotation with the Mets carefully monitoring his innings.

Ultimately, Wheeler’s role is really yet to be determined.  His role may hinge on how well he pitches in Spring Training, but also how well each of these pitchers pitch this Spring:

Robert Gsellman

2016 Stats: 4-2, 2.42 ERA, 8 G, 7 GS, 44.2 IP, 1.276 WHIP, 8.5 K/9

When we talk about pitching coach Dan Warthen, we continuously focus on the Warthen slider.  However, one other area that needs focus is his ability to work with young pitchers to get them to get the maximum velocity out of their fastballs.

Before coming to the Mets, Gsellman possessed a low 90s fastball and sinker.  Typically, he was a pitcher who pitched to contact, did not record man strikeouts, and he kept the ball on the ground.  As a result, he was seen as a back of the rotation pitcher.  That all changed when Gsellman was called up to the Mets.

According to Brooks Baseball, once Gsellman came to the majors, he began throwing in the mid 90s.  As a result, while he was still inducing ground balls, he began striking out more batters.  He went from a guy who averaged a 6.7 K/9 in the minors to one who is now striking out a batter per inning.  Gsellman also showed guile in being a pitcher who began the year in Double A to being a pitcher who helped pitch the Mets into the postseason.  With his newfound velocity as well as his moxy, he is now perceived as a middle of the rotation or even possibly a top of the rotation starter.  If Gsellman isn’t perceived to having passed Wheeler now, he could very well put together the type of season that would make people believe he is the better pitcher.

Seth Lugo

2016 Stats: 5-2, 2.67 ERA, 17 G, 8 GS, 64.0 IP, 1.094 WHIP, 6.3 K/9

Lugo is a throwback pitcher in that he likes to work quickly, he pitches to contact, walks few batters, and he ramps up his fastball an extra gear when he needs to get out of trouble.  This needs to be kept in mind for when people predict Lugo will have a regression in 2017.

Underlying the regression talk is Lugo’s 4.33 FIP.  The FIP is indicative of the fact that Lugo has a relatively low strikeout rate, and he is a flyball pitcher.  Put another way, advanced metrics suggest that a pitcher who allows the ball to be put in play as often as Lugo does should have a much higher ERA than what he had in 2016.  At least in theory, Lugo’s stats should be more in line with the pitcher who struggled in Triple A leading him to be moved to the bullpen than the pitcher who was great in the rotation.

And yet, Lugo may actually prove to be better in 2017 than he was in 2016.  By now, you must have heard his curveball has the highest spin rate ever recorded.  He used his curveball last year to make some of the best hitters in baseball look foolish at the plate.  A curveball with a spin rate like his will generate a number of ground balls thereby alleviating some of the fly ball concerns.  And again, as Lugo showed last year, he’s a pitcher’s pitcher that knows when he needs to keep him pitch counts low to get deeper into games and when he needs to ramp it up to help himself get out of trouble.

Verdict

For many of us, it is hard to let the dream of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, and Wheeler pitching in the same rotation die.  It was supposed to first happen in 2015, and then Wheeler got hurt.  It was supposed to happen again last year, but Wheeler had too many setbacks.  For many related to the Mets, fans and the organization alike, it would psychologically be better if Wheeler starts the year in the rotation so this famed grouping can pitch in the same rotation.

And yet, at this time, Gsellman seems to be the better choice for the Mets fifth starter.  He is the better bet to be more durable.  He has a longer future with the Mets organization.  He also probably has a higher upside as a starting pitcher.  For a Mets team who projects to be in a dog fight for the division, they can ill afford to give away games at any point in the season to let Wheeler pitch in the rotation before he can prove he’s capable of withstanding the rigors of being a major league pitcher again.

Therefore, Gsellman should be the fifth starter with Lugo and Wheeler rounding out the Mets bullpen.