Why The Mets Have Not Traded Jay Bruce Yet
With the Toronto Blue Jays nearing a deal for Jose Bautista and the Philadelphia Phillies signing Michael Saunders, the list of teams interested in Jay Bruce has preemptively shrunk by two. This is troubling because the market for Bruce seemed limited from the outset of the offseason.
This begs the question as to why Bruce, a player that is capable of producing 30 homers and 100 RBI in a season has so little interest. Surprisingly, the answer isn’t because Bruce hit .219/.294/.391 with just eight homers and 19 RBI in his 50 games as a Met. Rather, it is because there are better options still available.
After Bautista and Saunders, Mark Trumbo is arguably the best player remaining on the free agent market. In 2016, Trumbo hit .256/.316/.533 with 47 homers and 108 RBI. He posted a 120 OPS+ and a 123 wRC+. For his career, Trumbo is a .251/.303/.473 hitter who averages 30 homers and 86 RBI as an everyday player. He has a career 112 OPS+ and a 111 wRC+.
Comparatively, Bruce is a career .248/.318/.467 hitter who has averaged 28 homer and 90 RBI since 2010. For his career, Bruce has a 109 OPS+ and a 107 wRC+. Last season, Bruce hit .250/.309/.506 with 33 homers and 99 RBI while posting a 112 OPS+ and a 111 wRC+.
Basically, Trumbo is the better hitter over the course of his career, and he is coming off a better season. While he has a qualifying offer that will cost the team a first round draft pick, Trumbo is not going to cost another team a player. Still, with Trumbo’s high contract demands and the qualifying offer, it is arguable that a team would rather pursue Bruce than Trumbo. Once you look past Trumbo, the reason why teams are not interested in Bruce begins to emerge.
Chris Carter is coming off a season where he hit .222/.321/.499 with 41 homers and 94 RBI. Carter’s 2016 season saw him post a 114 OPS+ and a 112 wRC+. Since becoming an everyday player in 2013, Carter is a .219/.315/.470 hitter who averages 33 homers and 82 RBI a season. For his career, he has a 112 OPS+ and a 112 wRC+.
If a team is more interested in a left-handed power bat, there is Pedro Alvarez. In 2016, Alvarez hit .249/.322/.504 with 22 homers and 49 RBI in just 109 games. In those 109 games, he had a 115 OPS+ and a 117 wRC+. Alvarez became an everyday player in 2012, and since that time he has hit .239/.312/.463 while averaging 27 homers and 73 RBI. In his career, he has a 108 OPS+ and a 107 wRC+.
Looking at Carter and Alvarez, they are comparable if not slightly better players than Bruce. Looking solely at their OPS+ and wRC+, they had a better 2016 season that Bruce, at least suggesting they are in line for a better 2017. More importantly, Carter and Alvarez will likely sign free agent contracts worth less than the $13 million Bruce will receive in 2017. Moreover, the team giving Carter or Alvarez a contract will not have to forfeit a draft pick or a player to acquire them.
Ultimately, that’s the Mets problem in a nutshell. There are players on the free agent market who, at worst, are as good a hitter as Bruce is. Moreover, there are players like Aaron Hill, Brandon Moss, or Mike Napoli, who present a low-cost low-risk gamble.
Quite possibly, the teams you would expect need a power hitter will look to sign Trumbo, Carter, or Alvarez. The teams you think would be willing to roll the dice on a player will look to Hill, Moss, or Napoli. This is the real reason why the Mets have not been able to trade Bruce. It could also be the reason why Bruce may be on the Opening Day roster.