Sometimes all you need is a chance.
We saw it in Jacob deGrom in 2014. The 26 year old got a chance due to injuries, and the most of it. He not only showed the Mets he was a better pitcher than then well regarded prospect Rafael Montero, he also showed he was an important part of the Mets rotation going forward. From there, deGrom won the Rookie of the Year award, was named an All Star, and pitched the opener of the 2015 postseason. This all happened because he got a chance.
Seth Lugo is getting his chance, and like deGrom, he is making the most of it.
Initially, Lugo was called up to pitch out of the bullpen. He immediately made an impression with his awesome curveball:
In a Mets organization that places such emphasis on the slider and falls in love with fastballs that go over 95+ MPH, you could somewhat understand why Lugo wasn’t more highly regarded. You can really understand it when you consider he had a 6.50 ERA in AAA. Still, Lugo had a good repertoire including that curveball.
According to Statcast, Lugo’s curveball has a higher spin rate than anyone else’s in baseball. Yes, even Clayton Kershaw. The increased spin creates two effects: (1) it created downward movement inducing ground balls; and (2) it induces a number if swings and misses. Lugo’s curveball is a tremendous pitch, and it could very well have been the best pitch in a of the Mets minor league system.
Lugo likes to evenly mix all of his pitches. Even so, the curve is the money pitch. According to Brooks Baseball, Lugo generates the highest percentage of his strikeouts on the pitch. Furthermore, the pitch generates the lowest batting average against than any of his other pitches. Perhaps the reason why it’s so effective, other than its spin rate, is the fact that he’s very selective with the pitch. Other than his change, the curveball is the pitch Lugo throws the least often.
This means he mostly relies on his 93 MPH sinker and his 94 MPH fastball. What is impressive about his fastball is his ability to dial it up over 96 MPH in pressure spots. Lugo also has an 88 MPH slider which has been an effective pitch for him. If Warthen is able to help Lugo improve his slider like he has with everyone else on the staff, Lugo’s ceiling will go into the next stratosphere.
Again, the interesting thing breaking down Lugo’s pitches is you’re breaking down the pitches of a pitcher who had the stuff to be in a big league rotation. Prior to this season, there may not have been many who believed that. As Lugo was struggling in AAA, there were probably even fewer. And yet, here he is. He’s not just a major league pitcher, but he’s also an important piece of a rotation that may well be on its way to the postseason.
And all Lugo needed to show us all this was possible was a chance. He got it, and like deGrom, he has made the most of it.