Lucas Duda went on the disabled list almost a month ago due to a stress fracture in his back.  So far, the stress fracture in his back is not allowing him to do anything other than ride a stationary bike.  As each day passes, the question needs to be asked about whether Duda can play again in 2016.  The question needs to be asked about whether the Mets can sit and wait for Duda to return.

For the time being, the Mets solution has been James Loney.  In his 13 games as a Met, Loney has hit .260/.302/.340 with 77 OPS+.  This is as short sample size, but based upon his .280/.322/.357 batting line and 91 OPS+ last year, it may be fair to say that this is now who Loney is as a player.  The positive aspects of having Loney is that he’s a better option than Eric Campbell and Ty Kelly.  The negative is that his bat is just not going to cut it over the course of a season.  If Duda is not going to be able to return, Loney’s bat is going to force the Mets to make another move for a long term solution at first base.

Obviously, if the Mets are going to make a move, they are going to have to obtain a player who is going to put up better numbers than Loney.  At this point in the season, there are going to be very few sellers, and there are going to be very limited options at first base.  At this point, the line of demarcation are teams that are under .500 teams who are at least ten games out of the division.  That means if the Mets are going to upgrade at first base, they would be looking to swing a trade with the Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Angels, Oakland Athletics, Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds, Arizona Diamondbacks, and San Diego Padres.  With those parameters in place, here is the list of potential trade targets

Joe Mauer – he’s returned to form hitting .286/.388/.420.  However, given his contract and the fact that he’s the Twin’s David Wright, it’s hard to imagine the Mets would add his salary, and that the Twins would trade him.

C.J. Cron – Cron is the Mets version of Wilmer Flores.  He’s a low OBP hitter with some pop in his bat.  This year he is hitting .249/.305/.389, and he is a career .257/.389/.431 hitter.  While Cron is still only 26, and he has some upside, he is not a clear upgrade over Loney.

Kole Calhoun – Presuming Calhoun can play first base everyday is a stretch considering he’s only played nine games there in his five year career.  At the plate, he’s amidst a career year hitting .295/.369/.461 with eight homers.  However, if the Mets do think he can play first base, it is going to take a lot to get from from the suddenly stingy Angels as Calhoun is still under team control until 2020.

Albert Pujols – there are $140 million reasons over the next five years why this will never happen.

Yonder Alonso – As a prospect in the Reds system, Alonso was supposed to be a slugging on base machine.  This year he is nothing more than a .245/.306/.324 hitter.  While his career .270/.336/.385 line is an upgrade over Loney, it is not clear that this version of Alonso will be.

Danny Valencia – it can’t be a Mets trade rumor analysis without mentioning Valencia who has played 25 career games at first base.  He’s been great this year hitting .335/.379/.567 with 10 homers.  He’s under team control until 2018.  If Duda does return, he can shift to third.  If Duda and Wright return, it’s a nice problem to have.  The main sticking point with Valencia is going to be the cost.

Billy Butler – While Butler is best suited for DH, he has played first base almost every year of his career.  Unfortunately, the question with respect to Butler isn’t his glove, it’s his bat.  Butler is hitting .257/.296/.396 this year, and he has not had an OPS+ over 100 since 2013.

Ryan Howard – stick a fork in him, he’s done.

Freddie Freeman – the Braves have removed everything of value from this roster including the copper wiring.  The only thing that remains is Freeman who is having a poor year hitting .248/.343/.432, which is to say, he’s a big upgrade over what the Mets have.  Before this year, the 26 year old Freeman hit .286/.368/.467 in each of his five seasons as a starter.  The main sticking points to a Mets/Braves trade will be the $106.5 million Freeman is owed through 2021.  It’s a reasonable contract given his skill set and the fact that he will be 31 when the contract ends.  However, it does not appear the Mets would be willing to take on that type of contract even if they were willing to part with the necessary prospects.

Chris Carter – This year Carter has been what he has always been – a pure slugger.  Carter doesn’t walk, he strikes out a lot, and he hits a lot of homeruns.  He’s hitting .223/.295/.507 this year with 17 homeruns.  He would be the Mets homerun leader, but he is not getting on base.  Carter is the all or nothing player that has been the entire Mets offense this year.

Joey Votto – he was a superstar, and he’s one of the few trade pieces the Reds actually have. He can be a real difference maker.  However, he’s due $172 million until 2023, which is his age 39 season. After that he has a $7 million buyout.

Jay Bruce – he has three career games at first base, and he has a very reasonable $13 million trade option for next year.  He has returned to form this year hitting .271/.329/.584 with 15 homers.  The issue is the Reds turned down a straight up trade for Zack Wheeler last year.  With that said, it does not appear there is room for a trade for Bruce even if you’re willing to ignore his limited first base exposure.

Paul Goldschmidt – there is absolutely no way the Diamondbacks are trading him.

Jake Lamb – he’s a young player having a breakout year, who is also under team control through 2o21.  He’ll be easier to acquire than Goldschmidt, but this trade isn’t happening either.

Yasmany Tomas – Tomas is interesting because since he’s came to the majors from Cuba, the Diamondbacks aren’t quite sure where to play him.  With him owed $55.5 million through 2020, the Diamondbacks may be willing to move their .260/.313/.425 hitter to retool so they can make another run for it next year (or the second half).  However, his salary may be just want keeps the Mets at bay.

Wil Myers – The 25 year old Myers is finally living up to some of the potential everyone envisioned when he was traded to the Royals for James Shields.  He’s in the All Star conversation as he is hitting .283/.324/.506 with 14 homers.  He’s also versatile, which could be of great benefit to the Mets.   All of this is also why the small market Padres would not want to trade him unless they are getting a massive haul in return.

Yangervis Solarte – like Myers, he’s having a terrific year, he’s versatile, and he’s under team controll.  The Mets are going to part with a lot to get him.

Brett Wallace – Like Loney, Wallace is not hitting for power.  Unlike Loney, he gets on base with a .208/.352/.369 batting line which is good for a 101 OPS+.

Overall, the first base upgrades that would be available for the Mets have bigger contracts.  Seeing how the Mets have operated the past few seasons, it is difficult to imagine them being willing to pay someone like Freeman.  It is also difficult to imagine the Mets would be willing to part with the prospects necessary to acquire a Solarte.  In the end, this means the Mets are most likely sticking with Loney until Duda is able to return to the Mets.