While the Mets are certainly favorites in the NL East, they are not unbeatable. Any team is subject to the injury bug. This team projects to be a high strikeout team. There was the bizarre claim that the position players are too old. However, I did not think that people would cite middle infield defense as a cause. No, seriously. 

In an offseason where the Mets jettisoned Daniel Murphy and moved Wilmer Flores to the bench, the narrative has been that the Mets are much improved defensively over last year. It appears not everyone is buying it, so let’s analyze to see if it’s true. 

UZR

Generally speaking, Ultimate Zone Ratibg (UZR) measures a fielder’s range. Obviously, the better the number, the better the range. The better the range, the more opportunities to make plays. 

In measuring year to year UZR, you may get a sense of how that player performed that season. However, it is too small a sample size to determine the player’s defensive abilities. You need a minimum of three years to do that. As such, to determine if the Mets are better defensively as per UZR, the 2015 UZR, along with the prior two years, should be reviewed. 

Here are Murphy’s UZRs for over the past three years:

1. 2015 – (1.3)
2. 2014 – (5.6)
3. 2013 – (4.9)

All told, the combined -11.5 suggests what many already assumed. Murphy is a poor defensive second baseman. In 2016, he’s being replaced by Neil Walker, whose UZR over the past three seasons are as follows:

• 2015 – (6.8)
• 2014 – (6.8)
• 2013 – (1.4)

Walker has a -15 UZR. He’s coming off consecutive -6.8 UZR seasons. At least in terms of UZR, he was worse than Murphy last year, and he’s been worse than Murphy over the part three years. In terms of UZR, the Mets have taken a step back defensively at second. 

The Mets sought to upgrade the shortstop position by bringing in Asdrubal Cabrera, who most fans perceived as an upgrade offensively and defensively. Here is Cabrera’s UZR at shortstop over the past three seasons:

• 2015 – (6.0)
• 2014 – (6.6)
• 2013 – (12.8)

Wow. That’s a -25.4. To see if that’s an upgrade, here are Flores’ UZR at shortstop:

• 2015 – (2.5)
• 2014 – 4.0 

Now, before we point to Flores’ having a 2.5 UZR over two years, it’s important to note, it’s only two years of data. Furthermore, in each of those two years, Flores was not the everyday shortstop for a full season. Also, your eyes will tell you that he struggled there, especially early in the season. With that said, when thrust into the position in the postseason with no safety net, he played well at shortstop. While the team had defensive miscues in the World Series, Flores was not one of those players. 

Also, keep in mind that Cabrera was that poor of a defensive shortstop. Therefore, as far as UZR is concerned, the Mets are actually worse defensively. 

DRS

Generally speaking, Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) measures a player’s ability to make plays at their position as opposed to an average player at their position. Like UZR, the higher the number the better. Furthermore, like UZR, DRS is best viewed in three year clips to get a true measure of a player’s ability. 

Here is the DRS for Daniel Murphy over the past three years:

• 2015 – (6)
• 2014 – (10)
• 2013 – (13)

Looking over these numbers, Murphy has a cumulative -29 DRS over the past three years. While it can be argued that he’s been improving, it doesn’t change the fact that he’s still a poor defensive second baseman. Conversely, here are Neil Walker’s numbers:

• 2015 – (2)
• 2014 – (2)
• 2013 – 9

In reviewing Walker’s numbers, he may have slipped a little the past two years; however, he’s still a positive 5 in DRS. In reviewing DRS, Walker is a much better defender at second base than Murphy has been. 

Neil Walker’s new double play partner, Asrubal Cabrera, has not had DRS numbers as strong as Walker:

• 2015 – (7)
• 2014 – (7)
• 2013 – (16)

Again, Cabrera has ugly numbers. Over the past three years, he sits at a -30 DRS. For someone that is supposed to be an upgrade, these are not promising numbers.  However, in order to determine if he’s actually an improvement, we need to look at Flores’ numbers:

• 2015: (10)
• 2014: (3)

Again, the caution with Flores is that these stats are a small sample size. He still hasn’t played a full season at the position. With that said, if you wanted a stat to confirm the your eye test, this stat is the one. However, before casting dispersions on Flores, keep in mind the Mets are replacing him with a bad shortstop with limited range. 

Conclusion

Using UZR and DRS, there is a reasonable debate to be had as to whether Murphy or Walker is better at second base. However, when framing those arguments, it should be noted  Walker has been in decline the past few years.  So yes, Walker MIGHT be better, but it’s also true he’s getting worse at the position. 

As for shortstop, the only thing we truly know is that Cabrera is bad defensively. He’s 30 years old and not likely to get any better. He’s replacing a 24 year old that seemingly grew into the position. Flores played very well defensively in the postseason. 

Overall, while Mets fans may believe the team is better off defensively without Murphy and Flores up the middle, the stats don’t bear that out. Rather, the Mets are more likely to have the same deficiencies they had last year.

If you are going to argue the current Mets double play combination is better, it is not because of their defense.