Can the Royals Really Hit the Mets Pitching?

It seemed like the immediate narrative after the conclusion of both League Championship Series was the Mets biggest strength may not be a strength in the World Series:

As we all know, the Mets greatest strength is its good young pitching. The Mets pitching throws it hard and over 95 MPH:

  1. Matt Harvey – 96.54 MPH four seamer and 96.11 MPH sinker
  2. Jacob deGrom – 95.81 MPH four seamer and 95.49 MPH sinker
  3. Noah Syndergaard – 97.75 MPH four seamer and 97.78 MPH sinker
  4. Steven Matz 94.57 MPH four seamer
  5. Jeurys Familia 98.21 MPH four seamer and 97.66 MPH sinker 

That’s not good news. Fortunately for the Mets, that’s not the whole story. While the Royals hit high heat well, they do not hit offspeed pitching and breaking balls well. The Royals are only hitting .220 on pitches 87 MPH and below.  The highest percentage of Mets pitches this postseason was in this range. 

We saw it in the NLCS. The Mets did throw their 95+ MPH fastballs, but they also mixed in their offspeed and breaking pitches early. The Mets pitching isn’t great just because of their fastballs. They’re great because they pitch great. 

During the regular season, the Mets ranked second in WHIP with a 1.18 mark. They ranked fourth with a 3.49 K/BB ratio. They ranked fourth with a 3.43 ERA. They allowed the second least amount of walks, and they were sixth with a .243 batting average against. All said and done, if you want to beat the Mets pitching, you have to beat them. They’re not going to walk you, and they’re not giving up many hits. 

This either lines up perfectly for the Royals or it’ll be a complete disaster. The Royals were second to last in walks. They struck out the least amount of times. They were third in team batting average. They were 24th (last in the AL) in homers, but they were 11th in slugging. 

Overall, the Royals put a lot of balls in play against a staff that doesn’t allow a lot of hits. At times like this, I’m reminded of the adage of good pitching beats good hitting. It’s worked for the Mets so far this postseason. 

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