Mets Should Probably Avoid Adam Frazier
In the first of seven straight games against the Pittsburgh Pirates, the New York Mets got a good luck at popular trade target Adam Frazier. He certainly impressed going 2-for-4 with a double and an RBI.
It was the latest in what has been an All-Star season for Frazier. In 86 games, he’s hitting .328/.397/.464 with 26 doubles, four triples, four homers, and 29 RBI.
Frazier has a 2.6 WAR and a 138 wRC+. Among MLB second basemen, his WAR ranks fifth and his wRC+ ranks second. That’s extremely impressive, and his having another year of control makes him all the more enticing.
That said, the Mets shouldn’t look to add him at the trade deadline.
First, there’s the defense issue. Frazier would just be another second baseman who can’t play third to the mix. Maybe this will finally be the move which forces Jeff McNeil to third, which would be great, but it’s doubtful considering the Mets stubborn refusal to move McNeil off second.
If Frazier is slotted for second, it’s difficult to tell how he’d play. While he’s had elite numbers some years, he’s been terrible in others. This year, he’s a -2 DRS and -1 OAA.
On the defensive front, it’s possible the Mets believe their shifting and positioning could help Frazier play like an elite defender again. Seeing the Mets defensive turnaround this season, we shouldn’t doubt them.
With Frazier, the bigger issue is the bat. Yes, he’s having a great year. However, when you dig into the numbers, you see a player in line for a regression towards the 100 wRC+ player he was entering the season.
Frazier entered the year with a career .303 BABIP, and he’s at a .363 this season. Going to Baseball Savant, his barrels and exit velocities are very low. Actually, as luck would have it, they’re the worst of his career.
These are not the numbers of a player having career best power hitting numbers or for that matter, a career year.
Now, there are some good things with Frazier. His line drive rate is up, and his plate discipline has improved. He’s also a tough strikeout.
Taken all together, Frazier is an absolutely improved player at the plate, but he’s not as good as he is now. Frazier isn’t a good defender now, but he has been, and the right team can get more from him.
The obvious caveat is if the price is right, the Mets should look to add him. He’s a clear upgrade. That said, the cost will probably outweigh his value, and to some extent, Frazier is quite duplicative to what the Mets already have in Luis Guillorme, Jose Peraza, and Jonathan Villar.
It would seem the Mets attention is better focused elsewhere to address the real third base and bullpen vacancies. They also don’t want to be in a position to pay a premium price for a player due to regress both in the second half and next season.
Totally agree. I don’t see how Frazier adds anything. Find a couple bullpen arms I say. You can never have enough bullpen help and innings will be needed with so many inexperienced or honestly not very good Major League arms making starts for the Mets.
Castro has fallen off a cliff and everyone else besides Lugo and Diaz seems to be looking over the edge…