Jeff McNeil Should Leadoff With Brandon Nimmo Batting Second
The New York Mets have the challenge of trying to figure out how best to stack their left-handed batters in the lineup. Part of how they do that is picking a leadoff hitter. That is easier said than done when the Mets have three batters in Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, and Brandon Nimmo, each of whom have effectively lead-off.
On the surface, Nimmo is the perfect lead-off hitter as he is a speedy player who is able to get on-base at a very good clip. In his career, he has a .387 OBP with a 15.2% walk rate. Since his breakout season in 2018, he has been a .250/.395/.459 hitter (137 wRC+) with a 16.0% walk rate.
All told, Nimmo is the prototypical lead-off hitter, and just about every team in the majors should want him leading off. That said, the Mets aren’t just any team.
In McNeil, the Mets have a completely different kind of lead-off hitter. Much in the style of Ichiro Suzuki, McNeil comes to the plate ready to hit and put the ball wherever he needs to put it in order to get on base. While Nimmo makes a pitcher work to get him out, McNeil challenges a pitcher to get him out.
Whereas you want your lead-off hitter to get the pitcher to work the count to allow the rest of the lineup to see what the pitcher has that day, McNeil comes up ready to hit. In fact, McNeil swings at the first pitch 48.7% of the time. For him, that’s a good idea because he is a .421/.439/.855 hitter against the first pitch with 16 doubles and 16 homers.
In fact, he has more doubles and homers off the first pitch than any other pitch. Aside from a 3-0 count, which he reaches very rarely, he has his highest OBP and SLG off the first pitch than any other pitch.
One other factor here is how pitchers pitch. As noted by ESPN, the starting pitcher’s first pitch of the game is a fastball approximately 97.5% of the time. Against fastballs, McNeil hits .340 off of fastballs with a .544 SLG. He makes contact with the fastball 75.5% of the time.
When you break it down, you want McNeil swinging at the first pitch, and you want him attacking the fastball. Given the predictability of a first pitch fastball to begin the game, McNeil is ideally suited to lead-off the game and wreck havoc from the first pitch of the game.
After McNeil, you can turn to Nimmo who can give you everything you want from a lead-off hitter. He can work the count, and he can find a way on base. If McNeil doesn’t reach base, you get a chance to reset and have your best OBP guy try to get on base in front of Pete Alonso and Conforto.
Another note here is as noted by Fangraphs teams should want their best hitters to bat second. In 2018, Nimmo had a 148 wRC+. That is the best single-season mark anyone on this Mets team has had. That includes Robinson Cano.
Taking everything into account, while Nimmo might be the ideal lead-off hitter, for the Mets, the ideal situation would be to have McNeil leading off with Nimmo right behind him. By doing that, you get the most out of McNeil’s abilities, and you get to have Nimmo act almost as a second lead-off hitter.
From there, you set the table perfectly for Alonso and Conforto, which with the Mets starting pitching, could lead to the Mets getting early leads and putting a strangle-hold on their opponents.
McNeil is the ideal #2 hitter with his excellent bat control. Nimmo should lead off.
The second order hitter has evolved from what it used to be. Now, we are seeing teams bat their more traditional three and four hitters there.