Nolan Arenado Trade May Make Sense For Mets

The St. Louis Cardinals are doing a “reset” and looking to part with some of their biggest contracts. As part of that, they’re looking to trade Nolan Arenado, who has named six teams he’s be willing to be traded.

One of those teams is the New York Mets. There’s a lot to consider when contemplating such a trade.

First, Arenado has three years $64 million remaining on his deal for whoever obtains him. The three years are broken down as $27 million (2025), $22 million (2026), and $15 million (2027). That’s not an onerous contract for the Mets.

Addressing Pete Alonso for a second, he turned down a 7 year $158 deal ($22.6 million AAV). As such, he’s likely going to carry a higher cost over the next three years than Arenado.

In theory, executing an Arenado trade would be cheaper than re-signing Alonso. As a result, the Mets could free up money to do other things like sign Sean Manae and rebuild their bullpen (again).

Before getting there, let’s analyze what Arenado is and is not; what he would do for the Mets.

First and foremost, Arenado brings defense. No, he’s not the otherworldly defender he was three years ago. He’s regressed into merely being ONLY the third best defensive third baseman in the game.

That addresses a major problem the Mets had. Mark Vientos’ bat was a revelation which took the Mets to new heights. His glove was better than advertised but still not good.

Vientos was the fifth worst defensive third baseman. Moving him to first already improves the Mets defensively. Replacing him with Arenado is like going from the discovery of the wheel directly to a race car.

Arenado and Francisco Lindor would immediately become the best defensive left side of the infield in the game. It could rival Rey Ordoñez and Robin Ventura. It would be that great.

A defensive upgrade like that makes the pitching staff better. With David Stearns optimizing run prevention, this would seem like the perfect move.

It’s far from a no brainer. After all, if you’re going to part ways with Alonso, you better be sure it’s the right decision.

The biggest hesitation with Arenado is the bat. He will be 34 on Opening Day, and he’s clearly in decline.

In 2022, Arenado posted a career best 149 wRC+. In the subsequent two years, he’s posted a 106 and a 102.

He’s coming off a year with a career worst in nearly every offensive metric. He barely barreled any pitches (3.2%), and he had a career low exit velocity. Both appear part of a career decline.

Simply put, he’s not hitting the ball hard anymore. He’s a league average hitter, and in all likelihood, he will soon be a below average hitter.

Now, Arenado’s defense is at a point where it can offset the dip in offense. He will likely be a productive player, and with his salaries deceasing, he should fulfill his contract.

Still, Alonso is a far superior hitter. In a down year, he had a 122 wRC+. He still has game changing power as evidenced in the NL Wild Card Series. Part of the issue for the 30 year old is how many more years he has as a premier slugger.

In an ideal world, the Cardinals would take back Starling Marte in a trade. However, it’s hard to see the Cardinals taking back a 36 year old right fielder making $20.75 million.

That could be the case even if the Mets were also willing to take on Steven Matz and his $12.5 million contract. As an aside, Matz would help in the bullpen.

If the deal makes sense, the Mets should go get Arenado. He will make them better. He probably raises the ceiling more than Alonso would. That all said, if the Mets go this route they better be right.

2 Replies to “Nolan Arenado Trade May Make Sense For Mets”

  1. ron okoren says:

    The only way this makes sense to me is if (1) the Mets bring Alonso back to play 1B …. (2) Vientos becomes a full-time DH …. (3) Arenado comes to play 3B ….. (4) Marte is sent to STL as part of the deal …. and (5) Mets bring Winker back as 5th OF’er/back-up DH. For the Mets in this scenario, the implication in 2025 would be a net up of about $6M in salary (Arenado $27M vs. Marte $21M) ….. the $37M in ’26 & ’27 might be an issue but might be worth the risk for the defense Arenado brings. Frankly, I don’t think the Mets (Sterns specifically) would do this but would not be violently opposed to it if they did.

    1. metsdaddy says:

      One of the biggest issues we don’t talk about is within 3-5 years Soto and Alonso will have to DH.

      Mets can’t DH both.

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