Nolan Arenado Trade May Make Sense For Mets
The St. Louis Cardinals are doing a “reset” and looking to part with some of their biggest contracts. As part of that, they’re looking to trade Nolan Arenado, who has named six teams he’s be willing to be traded.
One of those teams is the New York Mets. There’s a lot to consider when contemplating such a trade.
First, Arenado has three years $64 million remaining on his deal for whoever obtains him. The three years are broken down as $27 million (2025), $22 million (2026), and $15 million (2027). That’s not an onerous contract for the Mets.
Addressing Pete Alonso for a second, he turned down a 7 year $158 deal ($22.6 million AAV). As such, he’s likely going to carry a higher cost over the next three years than Arenado.
In theory, executing an Arenado trade would be cheaper than re-signing Alonso. As a result, the Mets could free up money to do other things like sign Sean Manae and rebuild their bullpen (again).
Before getting there, let’s analyze what Arenado is and is not; what he would do for the Mets.
First and foremost, Arenado brings defense. No, he’s not the otherworldly defender he was three years ago. He’s regressed into merely being ONLY the third best defensive third baseman in the game.
That addresses a major problem the Mets had. Mark Vientos’ bat was a revelation which took the Mets to new heights. His glove was better than advertised but still not good.
Vientos was the fifth worst defensive third baseman. Moving him to first already improves the Mets defensively. Replacing him with Arenado is like going from the discovery of the wheel directly to a race car.
Arenado and Francisco Lindor would immediately become the best defensive left side of the infield in the game. It could rival Rey Ordoñez and Robin Ventura. It would be that great.
A defensive upgrade like that makes the pitching staff better. With David Stearns optimizing run prevention, this would seem like the perfect move.
It’s far from a no brainer. After all, if you’re going to part ways with Alonso, you better be sure it’s the right decision.
The biggest hesitation with Arenado is the bat. He will be 34 on Opening Day, and he’s clearly in decline.
In 2022, Arenado posted a career best 149 wRC+. In the subsequent two years, he’s posted a 106 and a 102.
He’s coming off a year with a career worst in nearly every offensive metric. He barely barreled any pitches (3.2%), and he had a career low exit velocity. Both appear part of a career decline.
Simply put, he’s not hitting the ball hard anymore. He’s a league average hitter, and in all likelihood, he will soon be a below average hitter.
Now, Arenado’s defense is at a point where it can offset the dip in offense. He will likely be a productive player, and with his salaries deceasing, he should fulfill his contract.
Still, Alonso is a far superior hitter. In a down year, he had a 122 wRC+. He still has game changing power as evidenced in the NL Wild Card Series. Part of the issue for the 30 year old is how many more years he has as a premier slugger.
In an ideal world, the Cardinals would take back Starling Marte in a trade. However, it’s hard to see the Cardinals taking back a 36 year old right fielder making $20.75 million.
That could be the case even if the Mets were also willing to take on Steven Matz and his $12.5 million contract. As an aside, Matz would help in the bullpen.
If the deal makes sense, the Mets should go get Arenado. He will make them better. He probably raises the ceiling more than Alonso would. That all said, if the Mets go this route they better be right.
The only way this makes sense to me is if (1) the Mets bring Alonso back to play 1B …. (2) Vientos becomes a full-time DH …. (3) Arenado comes to play 3B ….. (4) Marte is sent to STL as part of the deal …. and (5) Mets bring Winker back as 5th OF’er/back-up DH. For the Mets in this scenario, the implication in 2025 would be a net up of about $6M in salary (Arenado $27M vs. Marte $21M) ….. the $37M in ’26 & ’27 might be an issue but might be worth the risk for the defense Arenado brings. Frankly, I don’t think the Mets (Sterns specifically) would do this but would not be violently opposed to it if they did.
One of the biggest issues we don’t talk about is within 3-5 years Soto and Alonso will have to DH.
Mets can’t DH both.
Good writeup, albeit with two errors / omissions:
1. “Part of the issue for the 30 year old is how many more years he has as a premier slugger.”
Alonso with an SLG of .459 that has declined 60 points over the last 2 years and 125 points since 2019 is no longer a premier slugger, and he’s not close to one, while at 30 he’s only likely to become worse. He’s also overwhelmingly likely to age badly within just the next few years. It’s with good reason only three MLB 1Bmen 32 and over put up as much as 1.7 bWAR in 2024, and Pete’s no Freddie Freemen, nor will he be saved by a glove like Carlos Santana or Christian Walker’s.
Baseball is a game for superstars and men in their 20s, Pete’s turning 30, and he was never a superstar. On top of that, consider even since the beginning of the expansion era how few R-R bad defensive 1Bmen have put up enough wins after age 29 to warrant anything like even a modest 5/125m deal. Heck, never mind the bad defense, count the wins posted by all R-R 1Bmen once they turn 30, going back 63 seasons. The ones who were even reasonably productive make for the same, very short list.
2. There’s no way the acquiring team signs on for the 3/64m remaining for Arenado. If they did, it would mean they believed he would be worth 7-8 wins for 2025-2027, but no one thinks that. He may well have one more tolerable year at 3B, one not so pleasant year, and one bad one. Think 2.1 fWAR in 2025 (or what Pete put up in 2024), then 1.4, then 0.6, meaning you wouldn’t be starting him that last season and wouldn’t particularly like it in 2026.
The good news is that Arenado’s glove is good enough that he’s likely to be acceptable in 2026 if the Cards eat about half of what he’s owed over the remainder of the deal. The bad news is they won’t want to look foolish and may just decide to keep him rather than pay $32m to play for someone else, while not getting back a prospect ranked any higher than a team’s high teens. Now THAT would be a decent move by the Mets, if the alternatives are signing Pete, keeping Vientos at 3B, and nailing down MLB’s worst corner defense for the next five years, or signing the already-declining Bregman for the rumored 7/175m or 9/200m.
Me? I’d move Vientos to 1B, live with Mauricio at 3B assuming he’ll be in playing shape as of ST (baseball activities began in early December), figuring at worst I’ll get 1 win from Ronny: Extrapolate his modest 2023 to 500 PA and he gets there with no improvement, and sign a good backup MIer who handles 3B well to put a floor under the position–then spend the $23-25m I’m not spending on Bregman or Pete on pitching. Hey, even Cohen has a hard payroll number, and that has to be a LOT better than five-six years of Alonso. You can’t sign an All-Star at every position, and the likeliest place for a player making 800k to succeed on the MLB squad in 2025, is 3B.
Don’t know if I would have spent that money on Manaea, though, given the reports coming in that 3/75m for him is a done deal. He’s a respectable #3 even on a contender, and even turning 33, but the stories of his superb 2nd half are ridiculous once you actually look at the data: a 4.05 ERA his last 14 starts (yes, the postseason counts) is a MOR, nothing like a TOR. Even if you do the ‘2nd half’ fairy tale the favor of confining yourself to just his last 10 regular season starts, his ERA then was 3.79, his FIP 4.03, his SIERA was 4.07, and even that decent ERA required a lottery-winning .191 BABIP
Lest anyone think that BABIP was the result of a new, unlocked brilliance, think again. Greg Maddux had a .286 career BABIP, against the MLB average of .295 and even at his peak, winning four Cy Youngs in succession, his BABIP was only a remarkably good .260. Manaea’s BABIP of .191 over his last ten starts was the main ingredient of the false tale of second half brilliance. In truth he pitched competently, and was incredibly lucky. It would be interesting to know whether the brilliant Maddux ever had even just one 10-start stretch in his entire career where he fluked into a .191 BABIP.
The Mets needed a reasonably durable #3 and they got him for slightly less than Fried’s AAV, but without getting Fried’s age 30 to 32 prime-adjacent years. A 25m AAV for Manaea is probably necessary in the era where a pitcher like Taijuan Walker got 4/72m, but it’s hardly a steal despite the rumors Manaea was headed for a 4/100m contract.
So—are the Mets still aiming for Cease, or is even Nick Pivetta and a good 6-man rotation too much to ask for?
At the moment, Alonso is viewed as a premier slugger. While his last two regular seasons might’ve impacted that view, he helped regain some of it with his postseason.
I wasn’t getting into the Arenado contract numbers, just that he’s available and is interested in the Mets.
Ultimately, unwittingly or not, I really feel Alonso is forcing his way from the Mets unless he starts realizing how he’s truly valued on this market.