Juan Soto Is Not Overpaid
The commentary when the New York Mets signed Francisco Lindor was he was grossly overpaid. That was a narrative screamed all over the airwaves, and it was at its most intense during Lindor’s early season slump.
Of course, the narrative was always false, and as usual, it had a twinge of #lolMets to it. With his near MVP season leading the Mets to the NLCS, Lindor shut that narrative up . . . for now.
Enter Juan Soto.
Soto received a MLB record 15 year $765 million contract. That carries a $51 million AAV. It’s a staggering number, and when he’s paid more than Shohei Ohtani, you’re allowed to question the disparity.
We can point out Soto is four years younger and just now entering his prime years. We can discuss Soto’s durability against Ohtani’s injury history. There’s more to contemplate, but it’s all a pointless exercise.
Determining whether or not Soto is overpaid is directly tied to the value he brings the team.
Each offseason had its own trends, but over the past six seasons, teams have paid roughly $7.6 million per 1 WAR. As a result, for Soto to be worth the deal, he would have to produce a 6.7 WAR per season.
On that note, Soto is coming off a season with a 7.9 WAR. Two of his past four seasons have exceeded 7.0 WAR. If Soto produces at this level during the peak years of his deal, he’s exceeding the AAV paid to him.
Of course, the $7.6 million is an average. We have twice seen the value surpass $9 million. At a $9 million valuation, Soto would only need to average a 5.7 WAR to be worth the deal.
Of course, this presumes WAR/$ doesn’t increase with increased revenues in baseball. As the WAR/$ increases, Soto’s production need not be at the 5-7 WAR value to be worth the deal.
Of course, the Mets signed him to be exactly that. As seen with pure hitters like Yordan Alvarez, Edgar Martinez, and Frank Thomas a hitter of Soto’s caliber can absolute produce that value.
Yes, this presupposes Soto will hit like a Hall of Famer. That’s what he’s done in his career, and there is zero expectation he will suddenly cease being that.
Look, the Mets signed Ted Williams. With apologies to Darryl Strawberry, the Mets finally landed the next Ted Williams.
There’s knowledge that comes with being that level of a hitter. As Soto discussed in his press conference, his discussions with Aaron Judge made both better.
Notably, it was the best years of Soto’s and Judge’s careers. It’s a relationship Soto can now have with Lindor. Moreover, think of the impact Soto can have on Francisco Álvarez and Mark Vientos.
There’s also the message adding a player like Soto sends to the rest of the league. Look at the Mets back at Pedro Martinez in the 2004 offseason. It paved the way for Carlos Beltran and eventually Billy Wagner.
Was Pedro worth his contract? Well, partially thanks to Jeff Wilson, certainly not. However, it was a move which made the Mets relevant, and it led to helping the Mets acquire players which would nearly lead to a pennant.
The Mets arguably already had that with Lindor. However, acquiring Soto pushes things even further. It puts the team on par with the Los Angeles Dodgers and their three MVPs.
The Mets are at a completely different level now. They haven’t been here since the 1980s. The Mets are now set to have a decade plus run as a World Series contender.
Lindor brought relevance. Soto takes the Mets to a new level entirely. Yes, Soto’s production will mostly likely be worth $51 million per year. The extra intangibles he brings means he will assuredly be worth every single last penny of the deal.