Last year, a large part of the New York Mets making the postseason was their rolling the dice on Sean Manae and Luis Severino. Apparently, David Stearns is looking to execute the same plan for 2025.

The Mets agreed to terms with Frankie Montas on a two year $34 million deal. Like with Manae last year, Montas can opt out after the first year of the deal.

Last Mets fans saw Montas, they knocked him out of the fourth inning of Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series. He had allowed three runs (one earned) on six hits and three walks on 60 pitches.

Truth is, Montas hasn’t been all that good for a few years now. Back in 2022, much of baseball thought the New York Yankees got off cheap acquiring Montas from the Oakland Athletics at the trade deadline.

Prior to that deal, Montas had pitched six years for the Athletics posting a 111 ERA+ and a 3.72 FIP. He finished sixth in the 2021 Cy Young voting.

In all of Montas’ other stops, he was a 92 ERA+ or worse. At least in terms of the Yankees, it was due to a series of injuries. That right there is your Mets/Severino parallel.

Like with Severino, the Mets are grabbing Montas the year following the proof he was healthy. Montas did make more starts and threw more innings.

The Mets hope they can have Montas improve upon the pitcher he was with the Milwaukee Brewers. In Milwaukee, he roughly pitched 5+ innings per start while striking out 11 per nine.

Even with the uptick in his K/9, his K% was lower than it was with the Yankees. Digging deeper, his Baseball Savant page is a lot of blue. He’s not getting good extension or spin, and perhaps not coincidentally, his whiff rates are low.

Still, we saw Jeremy Hefner get the most out of this pitching staff last year. Manea radically altered his delivery. Peterson changed his pitch mix to feature his sinker more. Severino stopped tipping his pitches.

Between Hefner and the analytics, the Mets are showing they can get the most out of their starters. At one time, Montas was viewed as a top of the rotation pitcher. The Mets are gambling by presumably giving him the fourth or fifth starters job to earn his way back to that status.

With the Mets, you’d think they’re at a spot where they don’t take projects like this. It’s what makes this signing odd. You thought after 2024, they would be in a different spot.

Then again, this is why they hired David Stearns. This is what could give them the room to sign Juan Soto along with whatever else they need.

Still, this is a gamble, and that’s what makes this signing so odd.