MLB Not Only Sport Having Analytics Fight
Famously starting with Billy Beane, the war on analytics on baseball has long been fought. Really, it started before him, and it’s a war which continues to this day.
Back in the 1970s, it was Earl Weaver looking for a bloop and a blast. In the 1980s, it was Davey Johnson pouring over computer reports to find a statistical advantage. There’s more, and yes, this is an oversimplification.
Ultimately, analytics won. We see the Tampa Bay Rays have a competitive advantage with their use of analytics despite a low payroll. The Los Angeles Dodgers meld spending power with analytics to gain a stranglehold on the NL West and to some extent the National League.
When Steve Cohen took over the New York Mets, his first and main focus has been analytics. After using it to significantly improve the Mets defense, it’s being expanded to the minor leagues. In many ways, this is the tip of the iceberg.
Again, despite the whining of John Smoltz and Harold Reynolds, analytics won. That’s going to be the case in other sports.
We saw it with the NFL. The Los Angeles Chargers lost a game in OT to the Kansas City Chiefs. One of the purported reasons why is the Chargers opted not to kick a field goal on three separate occasions while subsequently failing to convert on fourth down. The ex-players had a field day.
The #chargers Analytics guy leaving SOFI as Coach Staley heads to the podium to explain 4th & goal x 2 = 0pts #TNFonFOX pic.twitter.com/VlRhnn9WZm
— Carl Banks (@CarlBanksGIII) December 17, 2021
Turns out analytics suck!
— mark schlereth (@markschlereth) December 17, 2021
If you break it down, the Chargers made the correct choice. With analytics, we see going for fourth down is the better choice.
Like with baseball, the criticism is grossly misplaced. The issue isn’t the decision itself, but rather, the execution. Much like it’s the reliever and match-up chosen, it’s the play call and execution.
However, the naysayers only choose to focus on one part of the process. It’s why they’re losing the battle. People increasingly understand the full process, and overall, the numbers and data prove out the process on the field.
This is why teams go for it more. This is why analytics eventually win in all sports. It did in baseball. With teams going for it more, and with all Bill Belichick did, we see it is in football.
For that matter, it is in hockey and basketball too. Just this past year, we saw it as a big reason why Adam Fox won the Norris Trophy.
Overall, analytics always win. They win because it’s the start way to do things. They win because it works.
Former players whining days gone by continue to miss the point. Instead of the woe is me, their focus can still be on the things where everyone agrees. It’s not the option to go for it, but rather, the play call.
The sooner these former players buy in, the better. We’ll see a more informed fan base. We’ll also see fans hearing from people who actually like to see the sport. Ultimately, more than anything, that will help grow sports.
F the cte league