There’s a report out there Marcus Stroman is requesting an AAV of $25 million per year in free agency. In some corners, there’s shock and derision at the number.

Such shock is absurd and rather dumb and misplaced.

Stroman is coming off a season where he made a Major League leading 33 starts (it was really 32) pitching 179.0 innings. He had a 133 ERA+, 3.49 FIP, 3.59 K/BB, and a 3.6 WAR. Over his last three seasons (2018 – 2021), Stroman has a 115 ERA+, 3.67 FIP, and an 8.3 WAR. It should be noted those stats were dragged down by an injury plagued 2018 season.

Since Stroman’s breakout 2016 season, he has been a strong performer. In 2016-2017, he had consecutive 200+ inning seasons. In four out of the past five seasons, he has pitched at least 179.0 innings. Stroman’s FIP has not exceeded 3.91, and his ERA+ has been 133 or better in three of his five seasons.

Starting from 2016, Stroman has made the 13th most starts in the majors with the 15th most innings pitched. He has the fourth best ground ball rate, and his FIP is 3.73 FIP over this stretch is the 53rd best in the majors. Considering there are 30 teams in the majors, that puts Stroman as a solid number two option in the rotation.

Stroman has a 14.9 WAR over this stretch, which is roughly 3.0 WAR per season. Notably, in three of the four seasons Stroman has made 30 starts, he has amassed at least a 3.2 WAR. Using a WAR/$ construct, the 3.0 WAR/season, is worth at least $24 million a year, if not higher keeping in mind WAR/$ tends to increase in value year-t0-year.

However, there is more than that with Stroman. Keep in mind, this is a big game pitcher. Case-in-point was this season. From August 6 to September 14, when the Mets were desperately trying to stay afloat in the race, Stroman was 2-2 with a 3.09 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, and a 9.6 K/9. He also had a 2.70 FIP. Overall, he limited batters to a .224/.274/.329 batting line.

We can also point to his being the 2017 World Baseball Classic MVP, or his big performances for the Toronto Blue Jays in the postseason. While apropos, we at least pretend it’s more difficult to pitch in New York, and Stroman has proved he’s one of the few who doesn’t just pitch well here, but thrives here. When looking at it from that perspective, the Mets should be willing to invest a little more money towards Stroman than they would be willing to perhaps do otherwise.

If you looked and noticed from 2021, Stroman looked like a pitcher on the upswing of his career. He improved in many statistical categories, and he added a new pitch in his split change, and we saw tangible results. What we didn’t see was his working to mess with hitter’s timing like he had done in previous seasons. According to Stroman, during his Instragram live, we should very well see that return in 2022.

Overall, Stroman has shown the ability to stay healthy and to continue working on and improving his repertoire. That is something critical when looking to see how pitchers perform into their 30s and beyond. If you were going to bet on any pitcher to age well, Stroman is that pitcher, and if you are a team in need of a starter, like the Mets, Stroman should be your first call, and you should be more than willing to give him a $25+ million AAV. If you do, he will reward you with his normal work ethic and performance.