If you looked at last season, there was legitimate reason for optimism for Dellin Betances in 2021. If nothing else, he showed his ACL was healed, and he was still able to generate a very good whiff%.

We should have seen Betances build off of last year with a regular offseason. Instead, this Spring, it seems like he’s regressing and could be in real danger of not making the Opening Day roster.

Betances seemed the acknowledge his 98+ MPH fastball was forever gone. Last year, he more than made 94 MPH work, at least in terms of swings and misses. He looked to build upon that, and he worked with Rockland Peak Performance to optimize his spin and to maybe regain some velocity.

So far, the results haven’t been great. Through four appearances, he has allowed six runs on five hits and three walks while only striking out two. While we should typically ignore Spring Training performances, this one merits analysis.

The main reason is his velocity, or better put lack thereof. While Betances is known for low velocity at this time of the year, his velocity so far this Spring is trending in the wrong direction.

Betances is going in the wrong direction.

Betances’ average 4-seam FB velocity this spring:

March 4: 92.2 mph
March 12: 91.4 mph
March 16: 90.6 mph#Mets #LGM https://t.co/xbFqf4hQ0P

— Mathew Brownstein (@MBrownstein89) March 16, 2021

Instead of Betances building up his velocity, it’s dropping. It’s now at the point where his fastball is dipping below 90 MPH. While he was able to make 94 work, it’s very debatable he can make sub 90 work.

The biggest reason is his control. With the high number of walks he issues, he really can’t afford lower velocity. The dip in velocity makes it easier for a batter to either lay off a pitch or square one up. That decrease in velocity could end any chance Betances has at being an effective reliever.

If Betances sees his velocity continue to drop, it’s going to become more and more done difficult for the Mets to put him on the Opening Day roster.

The only saving grace Betances has is his relatively high $6 million salary and Seth Lugo‘s injury. For those two reasons alone, he may very well get the chance to be on the Opening Day roster. If so, he can hopefully follow his career pattern of increasing his velocity in-season.

If not, Betances may well soon find himself as a DFA candidate. In fact, he’s probably one already. For now, he has about two weeks remaining to give the Mets some reason to bring him to Washington to begin the 2021 season.