Padres Got Machado At A Discount
Through the first seven years of his career, Manny Machado has accumulated has been a four time All-Star, and he has won two Gold Gloves. He has three top 10 MVP finishes includes two top five finishes. He has accumulated 33.8 bWAR in his career with 23.2 of that coming over the past four seasons. Since his debut in 2012, he ranks 15th overall in the majors in fWAR, and he ranks ninth since 2015.
This is all Machado has accomplished before his age 26 season, or put another way, this is what Machado has accomplished prior to hitting the prime years of his Major League career.
It should be noted Machado has accumulated a higher WAR than Giancarlo Stanton over the past four years. Stanton signed his deal when he was entering his age 25 season. At that point in his career, Stanton had 21.3 WAR, which is less than the 28.0 WAR Machado had accumulated up until that point of his career.
The Marlins rewarded him with a 13 year $325 million contract extension. As we now know teams were hesitant to give Machado a deal of similar length despite Machado being the better player playing a premium defensive position. But this isn’t just about Stanton and the deal the small market Marlins soon regretted and moved for pennies on the dollar.
For a moment, we should put aside comparisons to any one particular player’s contract. After all, there are plenty of examples available from Chris Davis to Albert Pujols to show how teams do not make good decisions on players. On the converse, there are plenty of contracts were players have signed at massive discounts to the level of production they provide. Instead, let’s look at Fangraphs‘ analysis of what the cost/WAR is for a player:
| fWAR | Cost/WAR | Value | |
| 2012 | 1.2 | $6.2 | $7.44 |
| 2013 | 5.0 | $7.2 | $36.00 |
| 2014 | 2.3 | $7.7 | $17.71 |
| 2015 | 6.6 | $9.6 | $63.36 |
| 2016 | 6.3 | $7.2 | $45.36 |
| 2017 | 2.6 | $10.5 | $27.30 |
| 2018 | 6.2 | $11.1* | $68.82 |
| Career | 30.2 | $265.99 |
* Estimated
Looking at it that way, through the first seven years of his Major League career, Machado has been worth $265.99 million to his team. This means, on average, he has been worth $38.0 million per season. If you were to assume Machado put up a similar level of production over the next 10 years, his contract should be worth 10 years $380 million.
Now, if you were to strip away his age 19 season where he played just 51 games and accumulated a 1.6 WAR, Machado has played six full seasons with a 29.0 WAR over that span. Looking at his six full seasons, on average, Machado has been worth $43.1 million per season. Using that valuation, Machado’s 10 year deal should have been worth a total of $431 million.
Keep in mind, that number may be light as well.
There are two factors to consider here. First, we are basing this off the production Machado has had prior to hitting his prime. Considering how teams are purportedly looking to pay players for what they will do and not for what they have done, you could argue Machado deserves more than $431 million based upon what he will do in his prime seasons.
Another factor is since 2012, the price per fWAR has risen. Recently, Major League Baseball has seen record revenues in each of the past 16 seasons. Year-in and year-out, baseball is making more money than the previous season, which in turn means, the owners have more money to allocate to payroll.
Looking at things from that perspective, Machado does not even need to maintain a certain level of production to be worth a perspective $40+ million a year salary. Looking at Fangraphs chart, the value of fWAR went from $5.4 million in 2007 to $10.5 in 2017. That’s almost double the amount.
Let’s say over the next 10 years, the cost per WAR only increases by 25 percent. That would mean the value per WAR would be $13.9 million. If that was the case, Machado would only need a 3.1 WAR player at his age 35 season to earn a $43.1 million salary. Of course, that is just for the value of that year and not the entire contract.
Really, breaking it down, Machado has signed a massively discounted deal with the San Diego Padres for the value he provides on the field. That’s based on factual and objective data. Remember that the next time Steve Phillips of MLB Network Radio says the system isn’t broken or Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated and MLB Network says free agency is merely “recalibrated.”
300 mil for any player is insane, let alone for a self-avowed lazy player who, heading nito his age 26 season doesn’t believe running to first base with any degree of urgency is his responsibility. Shame on him. If he doesn’t change his tune, what an awful role model for a team of young,, impressionable players. Am really glad the Mets passed on him as just about all teams did.
$300 million is not insane when you look at it from a FMV standpoint.
I’ll also note Machado is far from lazy. If he was, he wouldn’t be in that shape, and he wouldn’t be continuously improving.
As for the Mets passing, they’ll likely live to regret passing on Machado and Harper.
Of course Manny’s lazy and a disgrace. No I don’t want him on my team. And especially not a Shortstop where he’s range sucks..
His Attitude sucks.
This Is What HE Said A Few Months Ago:
“Obviously, I’m not going to change, I’m not the type of player that’s going to be ‘Johnny Hustle,’ and run down the line and slide to first base and … you know, whatever can happen. That’s just not my personality, that’s not my cup of tea, that’s not who I am.
Should I have run on that pitch? Yeah … but I didn’t and I gotta pay the consequences for it. It does look bad. It looks terrible. I look back at the video and I’m like, ‘Woah, what was I doing?’ You know, just the emotions of the game … I’m the type of player that has stayed in the zone, I’m playing and I’m just in the zone.
On 3-0, I’m trying to drive one out. I hit a 100 mph groundball (actually 76 mph) right into the shift, right to the shortstop … before I even step out of the box, I look to the shortstop, he has the ball in his hands and I’m like, ‘I’m out.’ … I mean, what am I going to do?
Should I have given it a little more effort? One hundred percent. (It’s) my fault like always, I mean that’s just my mentality when I’m in the game. (There are) things that you learn, things that you gotta change. I’ve tried changing it for eight years and I still can’t figure it out but, one of these days I will. “
I hate the quote, but that doesn’t make him lazy. If he were lazy he would have been out of baseball.
Machado is a uniquely talented player who busts it to study and to put the work in to be great.
Calling him lazy is being extremely short-sighted.
And BTW, Mets Daddy, your calculations of worth are just silly. No team could afford to stay in business, and fans could not afford to attend games even if teams could afford payroll, let alone make a profit.
Using your formula and guesswork, to be paid fairly in the next decade, a top player such as Jacob Degrom (10 WAR 2018) should be paid 13.9 mil per WAR. or $139 mil per season.
Brandon Nimmo 4.4 WAR in 2018 equals $61.66 mil per season.
Zach Wheeler, 4.2 WAR in 2018 equals $58.38 mil per season.
Syndergaard 4.0 WAR equals $55.6 mil per season.
Jed Lowrie 4.8 WAR equals $66.72 mil per season.
This alone is $381.36 mil which is more than the Mets earned in revenue in 2018 by around 45 mil which includes 17 mil profit per Forbes.com. Do you really think individual teams are going to afford billions in payroll in the next decade and have billions in team revenue per season? And that fans can afford to bankroll them?
Sometimes you write the most ridiculous things, exaggerate for dramatic affect, and/or post things that aren’t true and then try to pass them off as facts. Instead of staying grounded, too much of what you write doesn’t pass the smell test and requires reader research and fact checking given your track record. Just like your inaccuracies yesterday on another website about MLB Pipeline’s Mets Top 30. There’s no reason for inaccuracies or concocted drama. Certainly you can do better and should ask yourself why you aren’t.
They are not my calculations of worth. It’s the calculations derived from the market place. It’s what teams have established.
If you want to call it ridiculous, please show me where the underlying data I used to substantiate the point was wrong.