There are mixed rumors about whether the Mets are shopping Noah Syndergaard this offseason. Seemingly, trading Syndergaard would run counter-intuitive to the Mets statements they are trying to win now and in the future. However, if the Mets pull this off just right, they can actually compete going forward.

While we assume all of the other 29 teams in baseball would be interested, we do know the Padres are interested – very interested. They pursued him at the trade deadline, and they are apparently pursuing him again this offseason. While the Padres farm system is loaded, their major league team really isn’t.

In terms of their starting lineup, only Eric Hosmer, Hunter Renfroe, and Franmil Reyes had an OBP over .300. Renfore was the only player with over 20 homers. None of their starting pitchers had an ERA under 4.00, which is all the more troubling when you consider they play in Petco. This is a big reason why they want Syndergaard, or another top tier starting pitcher who is available like James Paxton.

The question is how much the Padres want Syndergaard. If they are willing to give up Fernando Tatis, Jr., there is the chance a deal can get done. MLB Pipeline has given him a 70 grade on the 20-80 scale. Baseball America is equally as high on him saying, “components of a middle-of-the-order shortstop, and even if he has to move to third base has more than enough bat to flourish. His mix of talent, personality and bilingualism sets him up to become the face of the Padres franchise.” Both outlets rate him as the second best prospect in the game.

Last year in Double-A, Tatis hit .286/.355/.507 with 22 doubles, four triples, 16 homers, and 43 RBI. He would also steal 16 bases. He should start the year in Triple-A, and realistically speaking, he will play in the majors next year.

Adding him to the roster would give you a huge prospect going forward. It also creates some flexibility. This could allow the Mets to trade Amed Rosario to improve other aspects of their club including a rotation which would have just lost Syndergaard. The Mets could also shift Rosario to another position like center field where the Mets have a hole.

If you moved Rosario to another position, you could trade Andres Gimenez for an upgrade elsewhere. You could also take one of the other big prospects you get in a proverbial swap to make an upgrade. Overall, if done properly, trading Syndergaard could truly create real roster flexibility.

Of course, the Mets will need it because they are going to need to fill in the rotation. By losing Syndergaard, you damage the strength of your team. You go from the best top 4 in baseball to a shaky rotation. After all, the Mets needed to upgrade the rotation anyway with Jason Vargas being their fifth starter. With Syndergaard gone, they would need to upgrade two spots.

You could do that by signing a Patrick Corbin, but that’s going to restrict the budget available to upgrade areas which really needed upgrading. Essentially, by making this trade, you are going to push competing for a World Series until 2020 at the earliest. Maybe by making this deal, you are passing on competing for the next five years.

Really, before even contemplating a trade like this, you have to have your ducks lined up. You have to know what the next five steps are, and they need to be secure. If not, you are gambling on this whole team and window blowing up.

Overall, trading players like Syndergaard makes and breaks careers. Getting him as part of the R.A. Dickey deal made the Mets contenders in 2015 and 2016. Trading him away could end any possibility of competing anytime soon, or it could open a whole new window. It’s a really difficult decision, and like it or not, the early stages of Brodie Van Wagenen’s tenure will be marked by the decision he makes.