Much Of Analysis On Familia And Britton Returns Are Not Well Grounded

Everywhere you look, people have panned the Mets return for Jeurys Familia.  The Mets poor return was again highlighted yesterday when the Baltimore Orioles got a much better return for Zach Britton than the return the Mets had received.

Some of that analysis was well-grounded.  For example, Keith Law of ESPN said, “although his command isn’t close to back yet, so his market value wasn’t going to be great, and in that context the O’s did well to acquire some pitching depth in the form of three second- or third-tier prospects from a very deep Yankees system.”

As we recall, Keith Law’s analysis of the Famila trade was that it was embarrassing for the Mets organization and all of Major League Baseball.  He went so far as to call for the Commissioner’s office to step in and force the Wilpons to sell the team.

Again, this analysis was grounded on well based knowledge of the prospects and the ensuing analysis of the returns.  Agree or disagree with any of it, it’s a learned critique.  Then, we see Jon Heyman’s critique of the trades:

If you read that critically, you will understand it tells you absolutely nothing about the quality of the return each selling team received for selling off their respective closers.

Remember, no two farm systems are alike, and they have different strengths and weaknesses.  Moreover, some systems are just flat out stronger than others.  In that tweet, Heyman gave us no context for why the Yankees No. 6 prospect is better than the Athletics No. 17 prospect.

It’s also important to note, he didn’t tell us who’s ranking.  That’s also important because some lists are certainly credible than others.

Taking Heyman on face value that those prospect rankings were correct and up-to-date, it still doesn’t tell us if Dillon Tate or William Toffey was the better prospect.

With respect to Tate, he’s a 24 year old pitcher in Double-A.  In his 15 starts, he is 5-2 with a 3.38 ERA, 1.113 WHIP, and an 8.2 K/9.  For the sake of comparison, 23 year old Nabil Crismatt, an undrafted free agent, made 16 starts in the same league this year.  He was 8-5 with a 3.58 ERA, 1.237 WHIP, and a 9.1 K/9 before being promoted to Triple-A.

No, it’s not a perfect comparison, but it should be worth nothing the 2015 fourth overall pick cannot out-pitch an undrafted free agent.  Think about that for a second, the Yankees seventh best prospect isn’t out-pitching an undrafted free agent.

It should also be noted many have panned the Mets farm system as being weak and towards the lower third in the majors.  MLB Pipeline does not rank Crismatt among the Mets Top 30 prospects.  Similarly, neither Baseball America nor Baseball Prospectus ranks Crismatt among the Mets top prospects.

Again, putting your personal like of either return aside, how can you accurately judge the trade when the Yankees purported seventh best prospect isn’t performing any better than an undrafted free agent who can’t even crack the Mets top prospect lists?

Also, for the sake of comparison, Baseball America has Jorge Mateo ranked as the Athletics seventh best prospect.  Digging deeper, Mateo is ranked as a Top 100 prospect in all of baseball.

Fangraphs ranks him 61.  Baseball Prosectus ranked him 79th.  MLB Pipeline ranked him 71st.

None of those outlets have Tate in their Top 100 this year.

With that in mind, how can we possibly point out the Yankees seventh best prospect is a much better return than the Athletics 17th best prospect?  The Athletics seventh best prospect is a Top 100 prospect while the Yankees seventh best propsect can’t out-pitch an undrafted minor league free agent.

In the end, we can say the Orioles got a better return for Britton than the Mets did for Familia.  That is fair and reasonable.  However, when drawing that conclusion, we should not compare each player’s ranking among that organization’s top prospects.  As shown, those rankings tell us absolutely nothing about who is the better prospect or what was the better return.

 

 

 

page top