For the second time in three seasons, Matt Harvey is returning to the major leagues after having major surgery. The first time it was Tommy John surgery. Now, it is surgery to remove a rib to alleviate the effects of Thoracic Outlet Syndrome (TOS).

Harvey was great in 2015, but he wasn’t 2013 Harvey great. In fact, we really did not see any glimmers of the 2013 Harvey until the postseason. In Game One of the NLCS, Harvey struck out nine while limiting a vaunted Cubs offense to two runs over 7.2 innings in capturing the win. In Game 5 of the World Series, with the Mets backs to the wall, Harvey was as great as we have ever seen him. He dazzled over eight innings striking out nine Royals. After seeing his postseason performance, many believed Harvey would finally be Harvey in 2016. We now know that wasn’t to be.

By and large, Harvey has recovered well from the TOS surgery. However, he’s not Harvey. He’s not the 2013 or the 2015 version. Right now, he seems to be a different pitcher all together. We’ve seen it during Spring Training. Harvey and Dan Warthen admit it as well.

As Harvey said, “I’m not looking to throw 100 mph again or 97 even. My job is to get people out no matter what I’m throwing, and I’m looking forward to it. [The velocity] is going to be there or it’s not, and I have to go out there and pitch.” (Mike Puma, New York Post).

Warthen doubled down on Harvey’s comments saying, “History says with that surgery that it’s 10 months out. That’s when you really start to feel strong. Generally when you open a season you gain two miles per hour. If he’s playing at 94, 95, it’s a completely different story.”

Now, Harvey has seen increased, if not somewhat inconsistent, velocity in his last few starts. In his last start, he hit 97, but unlike years past he couldn’t stay up there.  Theoretically, he still needs time to get there. 

Ten months out for Harvey is May 18th, which is about a month into the season. This means if Harvey is on the Opening Day roster, he will be pitching for a little over a month without being at his full capacity, whatever that now is. This begs the question whether he should start the season in extended Spring Training like the Mets are rumored to be doing with Zack Wheeler.

Overall, the end game for Harvey is how he pitches down the stretch and into the postseason. It makes little sense to throw him out there before he is truly ready to pitch. In fact, it makes even less sense when you consider the Mets have sufficient pitching depth to handle giving Harvey some extra time to get ready for the season.

Robert Gsellman was a revelation last season, and he is having a strong Spring Training. Seth Lugo is preparing as if he is going to be a starter this year. Given Lugo’s starts against an absolutely stacked Venezuelan and American lineup, it appears Lugo is ready to go out and build on his success from last year.

We know Gsellman and Lugo can handle being starting pitchers at the major league level. We saw them go out and pitch the Mets into the postseason. If you can trust them with that, you can certainly trust them to start in April and May to buy some extra time for Harvey and Wheeler. While this is happening, you are also saving some innings for Harvey and Wheeler, which would presumably allow them to pitch deeper into the season.

More importantly, the time in extended Spring Training would either permit Harvey to regain some of the lost velocity, or it will permit him to better learn how to adapt to pitching with reduced velocity. Until such time, Harvey remains optimistic and says, “It’s still early. I’m not worried about the result today, I’m happy with the way I felt mechanically. I threw a lot of good pitches and I threw some bad ones. That is excitement for my next outing. I think velocity, all of that will come in time, and just keep pushing forward.”

Whatever the result, hopefully the Mets give Harvey sufficient time for him to get on the mound not just with his best stuff but with the right mind-frame. Arguably, extended Spring Training will do that. We’ll see what the Mets and Harvey ultimately elect to do.